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CHAPTER 15 751

SCANNING THE INNOVATION HORIZON

Nikos Kastrinos, Ewelina Pysklo Directorate-General for Research and Innovation,

European Commission CHAPTER 15 752

Summary

This chapter is dedicated to efforts gathering exercises which are essential in the context wide-ranging intelligence to identify new signs of the increasing emphasis being placed by of emerging issues, trends and challenges for the EU’s R&I policy on directionality, in par- the future. It describes in detail the practice ticular towards sustainable development. of horizon scanning, which can be seen as the The need for informed policy priorities re- basic groundwork of foresight projects, or as sults in demand for more systematic, con- an important strategic function in its own right. tinuous and comprehensive scans to feed into decision-making processes. It presents the European Commission’s latest research and innovation (R&I) foresight

1. Introduction

The European Union makes substantial This paper presents a brief overview of how investments in research, science, technology horizon scanning took hold in EU efforts to im- and innovation, aiming at lowering technical and prove priority-setting in science and technology. commercial risks associated with innovation It begins with the history of the development of to make its economy more competitive and priority setting in R&I policy and the analytical to enable its society to achieve goals such methodologies used to support it, showing the as prosperity, sustainability and quality of hand-in-hand evolution of political and analytical life. European strength in science, technology developments. Despite being practised for many and industry is necessary to ensure that years, especially in Japan, horizon scanning in Europe is able to achieve its objectives. To be science and technology (S&T) really took off with competitive, Europe needs to maximise the the publication of the Chinese Roadmaps for value and productivity of its investments in 2050. The close coupling between understand- R&I, and this requires appropriate intelligence ing the horizon, the policy goals and the com- and coordination between relevant policies mitment to achieving them that seemed to drive and strategies at EU, national and regional the modernisation of China incentivised other levels. These investments may follow Europe’s governments to undertake R&I horizon scanning, strengths or weaknesses and concentrate and to use it in priority setting. The paper reviews on areas where the greatest impacts can be some key national projects before describing the expected and where the most benefits would European Commission’s experience with horizon lie. A good understanding of capacities and scanning. Its conclusions simply appraise this aspirations for future innovations is an invaluable experience and point at questions and possible basis for reflection and debate on potential improvements that could determine whether impacts of different investment decisions, and horizon scanning becomes a regular part of the on the normative and strategic considerations EU policymaking toolbox or remains an experi- that should guide those investment decisions. ment from which lessons are applied elsewhere. 753

2. Horizon scanning in R&I policy

A great deal of modern S&T has its roots ant strategic function in its own right. It signifies in the efforts to sustain the technological an effort to gather wide-ranging intelligence that leadership of the US military and the com- goes beyond the normal intelligence practice, to mercial advantages these generated for US identify new signals of emerging issues, trends firms (Bush, 1945; McDougall, 1985; Gholz, and challenges that could help preparedness for 2011; Mazzucato, 2011). The EU’s R&I efforts the future (Cuhls, van der Giessen and Toivanen, originated in an effort to catch up with the USA 2015). In S&T, horizon scanning provides intel- in certain fields of S&T (EC 1970, 1985; Patel ligence about capacities and aspirations which and Pavitt, 1987; Sharp, 1989). The EU was not could push forward the frontiers of knowledge and alone in this effort. Japan, the Soviet Union and, innovation. For contemporary R&I policymaking, increasingly, other parts of the world began to this intelligence is an essential part of the stra- invest heavily in R&D and to seek to compete tegic context of policy decisions. It allows informed with the USA in S&T. During the 1980s, it evaluations of expected costs, benefits, challenges became clear that no country could afford to and opportunities associated with particular R&I be the world leader in all fields of S&T and policy options and directions (ibid.). Again, Japan strategic R&I programming became prominent. led the way. Regular foresight studies in science and technology, with a broad horizon scan, began Japan led the way with the launch of the Very in the 1970s, and since 1996 they have been inte- large-scale integration (VLSI) programme in grated into the revision of the Basic Plan, the basis 1976. The ALVEY Programme in the UK and the of Japanese S&T policy that is reviewed every five ESPRIT programme in the European Community years (Urashima, Yokoo and Nagano, 2012). were reactions to Japan’s VLSI. More and more countries set off to develop capacities in key The need for a more strategic approach to R&I technologies (Rothwel and Zegveld, 1985), policy underpins the European Commission’s which ‘when effectively controlled, offer keys recent efforts to develop a more systematic to economic success’ (Revermann and Sonntag, understanding of the innovation horizon. These 1989, p. 1). The effort to devise priorities led efforts build on two foundations: the first is the to the development of disciplines such as development of strategic foresight in the EU’s scientometrics (De Sola Price, 1978), techno- R&I policy during Horizon 2020 (EFFLA 2013; metrics (Sahal, 1985) and to the application Burgelman et al., 2014; Kastrinos, 2018). In the of foresight in S&T (Martin and Irvine, 1984, practice of strategic foresight, some of the most 1989; Urashima, Yokoo and Nagano, 2012). The powerful context is provided by megatrends1 foundations of these disciplines lie in the belief (Gore, 2013; EEA 2010, 2015; OECD 2016; that priority-setting in S&T can benefit from on ESPAS 2015, 2019), described as inescapably an informed understanding of capabilities and powerful forces). However, in their content aspirations, which can be revealed by the study megatrends invariably resemble significant of expert communities and their communication. debates about the future rather than determined historical destinies. The interplay between The practice of horizon scanning evolved in this determinism and strategies to change the future context and can be seen either as the basic requires foresight to decompose megatrends, groundwork of foresight projects, or as an import- to juxtapose established trends with emerging CHAPTER 15

1 In 2018, the JRC developed an online megatrends hub: https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/foresight/about_en and a set of methodologies for using it as the context for decision-making games. 754

trends, and to debate the significance of different cross-fertilisation (Roco and Bainbridge, 2003). phenomena. Scanning the horizon for signals of An important part of convergence was tied to new trends is a way of compensating for the what they saw as the unification of S&T: power of megatrend discourses over both likely and unlikely alternative futures. ‘The sciences have reached a watershed at which they must unify if they are to Trends are sequences of events in time that continue to advance rapidly. Convergence of imply an underlying cause. The horizon is the sciences can initiate a new renaissance, scanned for ‘signals’. These are significant embodying a holistic view of technology based observations (events) which may or may on transformative tools, the mathematics of not signify a trend. Horizon scanning relates complex systems, and unified cause-and-effect such observations to one another to develop understanding of the physical world from the ‘signposts”. Signposts are conditions that could nanoscale to the planetary scale’ (ibid. p. x). signify a trend within underlying causal theories. By accumulating signposts, trends become more R&I policies have gradually moved from discipline- visible and different causal theories build and based work towards a systems-oriented policy. lose predictive value. And as we begin to discern In the EU, key technologies and key application trends, the future becomes more predictable. areas continued to be the framework (see Cahil and Scapolo, 1999) until the Fifth Framework The second foundation of the European Programme (FP5) put its focus on key actions Commission's horizon-scanning effort lies with for particular socio-economic systems, such as the international experience that is demonstrating the cities of the future, industry, etc. Whilst this more and more clearly the feasibility of scanning was very well received, evaluation of FP5 centred that is useful for policy. Studies aiming to produce around the EU’s relative inability to coordinate representations of the scientific and technological national R&D policies: frontier began in the 1980s (Sahal, 1985; Callon et al., 1983; Callon, Rip and Law, 1986) but really ‘Our panel is convinced that the required took off in the 21st century with the growing changes need to be conceived within an overall importance of the internet and the development strategy for Europe, articulated at the level of text-mining algorithms (Porter, Kongthon, of the EU and supported by all the Member Lu, 2002; Kostoff, 2012; Kim and Chen, 2015). States’ (Majo et al., 2000 p. i). Early studies built on the framework of the key technologies of the 1980s: ICT, biotechnology, The ability of the Union to coordinate industrial technology and new materials and national programmes and policies became energy technologies (Revermann and Sonntag, a key political issue of the decade, with the 1989). Later, the frameworks became more European Research Area (Kastrinos, 2010), elaborate. Two phenomena probably played whilst the thematic structure of the framework a role: the first is technological convergence and programme remained stable.

3. Horizons and roadmaps

In 2010, the Chinese Academy of Sciences in China to 2050 (Lu, 2010). This signalled published a Roadmap for Science and Technology China’s resolution to move from imitation to 755

innovation with Chinese characteristics, rooted economic development and strategic capabilities, in domestic efforts and integrating global which framed its priority-setting process. Through innovation resources. The roadmap was based this lens, China set out what it saw as the horizon on an analysis of key systems for China’s socio- of R&I challenges for the coming 40 years.

Roadmap for Chinese S&T 2050 Strategic systems for China’s socio-economic 2. Seven S&T initiatives of strategic development importance to China’s sustainability: a. 4 000-metre transparency underground a. The system of sustainable energy programme resources b. New renewable energy power systems b. The green system of advanced c. Deep geothermal energy power materials and intelligent manufacturing generation c. The system of ecological and high-value d. A new nuclear energy system agriculture and the biological industry e. Marine capacity expansion plan d. The generally applicable health- f. Stem cells and regenerative medicine assurance system g. Early diagnosis and systematic e. The system of ecological and intervention of major chronic diseases environmental conservation development f. The expanded system of space and 3. Two S&T initiatives of strategic importance ocean-exploration capability to China’s national and public security: g. The national and public security system a. Space situation awareness network (SSAN) S&T initiatives of strategic importance for b. Social computing and parallel China’s modernisation management systems

1. Six S&T initiatives of strategic importance 4. Four basic science initiatives likely to make to international competitiveness: transformative breakthroughs: a. New principles and technologies of a. Exploration of dark matter and Post-IP Network and its test beds dark energy b. Green manufacturing of high-quality b. Controlling the structure of matter raw materials c. Artificial life and synthetic biology c. Process engineering of highly efficient, d. A mechanism of photosynthesis cleaner and recycling utilisation of resources 5. Three emerging initiatives of cross- d. Ubiquitous sensing-based disciplinary and cutting-edge research: informationised manufacturing systems e. Exa (1018) supercomputing technology a. Nanoscience and technology f. Molecular design of animal and plant b. Space science and exploration strains and products satellite series c. Mathematics and complex systems CHAPTER 15 756

The defining difference between the Chinese The Finnish study explicitly took the view that Roadmap and all other priority-setting exercises Finland would have to adapt to whatever the is its expansionary nature. It was not a plan world economy becomes. Thus, it defined future for the efficient use of resources in a steady global value networks in which Finland would state. It was the expansion plan which, over have to play a role if it were to sustain its stan- a decade, built the current competitive position dard of living. The study carried out a broad of Chinese R&I and its future prospects. expert consultation on trends in S&T that would affect the global value networks and evaluated Soon after the Chinese Roadmap was published, the importance of those trends in relation to the Parliament of Finland launched the project their potential effects on such networks. The ‘100 opportunities for Finland and the world’ 100 trends with the biggest potential impact (Linturi, Kuusi and Alqvist, 2014), and the Rus- were labelled 100 opportunities for Finland sian prime minister launched the project ‘Rus- and the world and were used by the study to sia 2030: Science and Technology Foresight’ benchmark the capacity of Finland in relation (Gokhberg, 2016). Both projects benchmarked to the world standard. The Finnish study was national capabilities in S&T in relation to key revisited during 2017 with a similar methodol- areas which were identified through some ogy and was published under the title Societal form of horizon scanning. The Russian study Transformation 2018-2037 (Linturi and Kuusi, used a literature-based approach to its hori- 2019). There were a few changes between the zon scanning, whilst the Finnish one used an two studies. The global value networks ter- expert conversation-based methodology. The minology became more austere and some of Russian study presented its findings in seven the areas identified changed. The earlier study categories. The first three were the traditional defined sensors, functional materials and intel- generic technologies of the 1980s: ICT, bio- ligent goods as emerging global value chains, technology, and new materials (and nanotech- while the later work emphasised more social nology), whilst the other four were application areas related to work, education and mean- areas: healthcare and medicine, environmental ingful life. There was also some change in the management, transport and space systems, framing of areas of innovation that constitute and energy efficiency and energy savings. In breakthroughs, as can be seen in the box below. those four categories, the report catalogues about 200 important research areas, charac- The figure below traces the evolution of the terising Russian S&T as world class in a very view on future global value networks of interest small number of them (a handful of areas in to Finland. medicine and energy, one area in space and one area in materials). However, the report made no case for the need for Russia to be world class in some areas. It simply developed an assess- ment on which government agencies and public and private companies could base their deci- sions about what they wanted to achieve. 757

Figure 15-1 Horizon scanning of the Parliament of Finland: global value networks and areas of technological breakthroughs2

100 opportunities for Finland and the world Societal transformation 2018-2037 (published in 2014) (published in 2019) Global value networks Automation of passenger-vehicle traffic Passenger transport Automation of commodity transport Logistics Manufacturing close to customers Manufacturing of goods Virtualisation of retail trade and services Exchange Local or functional food Sustenance Distance presence and remote control of tools Remote impact Individualisation of learning and guidance Acquiring information Self-care based and personalised healthcare Healthcare New capabilities for those who have lost their functional health Redressing disabilities Sustainable energy technologies Energy supply Raw materials from untapped areas of the earth and space Materials Participatory forms of entertainment, culture and influence Producing experiences National defence and anti-terrorism Safety and security Functionalisation of spaces and structures Built environment Operation models for self-organising communities Collaboration and trust Virtualisation of identities and social structures Existential meaning Democracy, freedom and social cohesion Power structures Equipment that increases awareness of the environment Automation of work Functional materials and new material technologies Work and income Functional added value of intelligent goods Proficiency and its proof Areas of technological breakthroughs Control of metabolisms of human beings and other organisms Biotechnology and pharmacology Social innovations Digital crowdsourcing platforms Artificial intelligence and algorithmic Algorithms and systemic solutions based on IT reduction Measurement and picturing Digitisation of sensory data and processing Moving and transportation Transport, mobility and logistics Robotics Production of products and services Key enabling materials and industrial raw materials Material technology Energy technology Energy technology Messaging technologies and protocols Instrumentation and telecommunication Human machine interface technologies Globalising technology interfaces Imitation of nature and cyborgs

Science, research and innovation performance of the EU 2020 Source: Author's elaboration based on Linturi at al., 2014; Linturi and Kuusi, 2019 Note: The placing of areas next to each other indicates the continuity from one report to the other, unless in italics, which indicates discontinuities. Stat. link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/srip/2020/partii/chapter15/figure_15-1.xlsx CHAPTER 15

2 The placement of areas next to each other indicates the continuity from one report to the other, unless in italics, which indicates discontinuities. 758

4. Horizon scanning in the European Commission: the Radical Innovation Breakthrough Inquirer

The European Commission’s Radical Innovation including surveys of social innovations. The Breakthrough Inquirer (RIBRI) project was 100 most important ones were selected inspired by the Finnish study in two ways. First, through expert assessment procedures for having realised the importance of values in their potential for widespread use by 2038, foresight and R&I policy (Remotti et al., 2016; their level of maturity, and the EU’s relative Webber et al., 2018), the Commission came position in patents and publications. to appreciate the Finnish study’s emphasis on values and the concomitant interest in social The 100 RIBs were clustered ex post into innovation. Second, the idea of using values nine areas: Artificial Intelligence and robotics as a means of evaluating the potential impact (AI&R); electronics and computing (E&C); bio- of radical innovations was consistent with the medicine (BM); human-machine interaction and rising emphasis on directionality in EU R&I biomimetics (HMI&B); printing and materials policy, in particular towards the Sustainable (P&M); resource boundaries (RB); energy (E); Development Goals in the UN Agenda 2030. bio-hybrids (BH); and social innovations (SI). In all areas other than social innovations, the The RIBRI study used a mixed approach to collections include mature topics that have been identify radical innovation breakthroughs. around for a while (breakthroughs waiting to For the most part, a massive bibliometric happen) and emerging new areas of fundamental study used specially trained algorithms to research (high potential – high uncertainty mine scientific and technical publications for breakthroughs). All social innovations depicted emerging concepts. Signals identified by the are areas of existing social activity and thus of algorithms went through expert refereeing, considerable maturity. Having ranked the RIBs in after which they were written up as Radical terms of their potential for significant use in 20 Innovation Breakthroughs (RIBs). These were years and the current relative strength of the EU compared to and enhanced with other RIBs in the global system, the RIBs can be portrayed identified by other recent foresight studies, as presented in the figure below: 759

Figure 15-2 Table of radical innovation breakthroughs TABLE OF HOW TO READ ENTRIES

RADICAL INNOVATIONS Bioinformatics$ Full name BREAKTHROUGHS BiO Abbreviation Thematic group code 2 BH A dashboard of 100 emerging developments A dashboardTABLE of 100 OF emergingRADICAL developments INNOVATIONS offering strong impact on global value creation and Recent progress off ering strong impact on global value creation potentialBREAKTHROUGHS solutions to societal needs and potential solutions to societal needs Underwater Harvesting living methane hydrate TABLE OF RADICALUL INNOVATIONSHmH A dashboard of 100 emerging developments 86 BR 87 offEN ering strong impact on global value creation STRONG Marine and 3D Printing of Bioplastic Chatbots Lab-On-A-Chip BREAKTHROUGHStidal power food and potential solutions to societal needs Underwater MtP 3DFHarvesting BiPl CB LoC living methane hydrate 81 EN 82 PM 83 BR 84 AI 85 BH Artifi cialUL Geoengineering: Microbiome Splitting carbonHmH Quantum Driverless Neuromorphic photosynthesis landscapes dioxide cryptography chip 86 BR 87 EN STRONG Marine and 3D Printing of Bioplastic Chatbots Lab-On-A-Chip AP Geotidal power foodMic ScD QCr DrL NmC 74 EN 75MtP BR 3DF76 BM 77 BiPlBR 78 CBEC LoC 79 AI 80 HM Spintronics Humanoids High-precision Holograms Brain machine Drug delivery Regenerative Precision Blockchain Gene editing HOW TO READ ENTRIES clock81 EN 82 interfacePM 83 medicineBR 84 farmingAI 85 BH Artifi cial Geoengineering: Microbiome Splitting carbon Quantum Driverless Neuromorphic photosynthesisSpT Hulandscapes HpC Ho dioxideBMI cryptographyDD RM PFchip BC GE Bioinformatics Full name AP 64 EC 65Geo AI 66 EC Mic67 AIScD68 QCrHM 69 BM 70 DrLBM 71 NmCAI 72 AI 73 BM BiO Abbreviation 74 Aluminium-EN 3D75 Printing of BR Microbial fuel 76Smart tattoosBM 77 Self-healingBR 78 CarbonEC capture Molecular79 TouchlessAI 80 ges- HMHyperspectral Speech Spintronics basedHumanoids energy glassHigh-precision cellsHolograms Brain machine Drugmaterials delivery Regenerative& sequestration Precision recognitionBlockchain ture recognitionGene editing imaging HOWrecognition TO READ ENTRIES Thematic group code clock interface medicine farming Ae 3DG MfC ST ShM CCS MR TG Hypl SpR 2 BH (See just below) SpT Hu HpC Ho BMI DD RM PF BC GE Bioinformatics Full name 54 EM 55 PM 56 EN 57 HM 58 PM 59 BR 60 BH 61 AI 62 AI 63 AI 64 EC 65 AI 66 EC 67 AI 68 HM 69 BM 70 BM 71 AI 72 AI 73 BM Airborne wind Control of gene Antibiotic Desalination So— robots Quantum 3D Printing of Emotion BiodegradableBiO Swarm Abbreviation Aluminium- turbine3D Printing of expressionMicrobial fuel SusceptibilitySmart tattoos Self-healing Carbon capture Molecularcomputers TouchlessLarge ges- ObjectsHyperspectralrecognition Speech sensors Intelligence based energy glass cells materials & sequestration recognition ture recognition imaging recognition Thematic group code Recent progress (See bottom part panel) Ae AW3DG CGEMfC ASuST ShMDs CCSSR MRQuCTG 3DLHyplERSpR BiS 2 Sln BH (See just below) 54 44EM 55 ENPM4556 PMEN 4657 HMBM 5847 PM BR59 48 BR 60AI 49 BH 61 EC 50 AI 62 PM 51AI 63 HM 52AI BH 53 AI Airborne windPlant Control of geneBioelectronics Antibiotic NeuroscienceDesalination of So—Brain robots function QuantumMetamaterials 3D PrintingDisaster of Emotion Artifi cal BiodegradableComputational Swarm Augmented Exoskeleton turbine communicationexpression Susceptibility creativity mapping computers Large Objectspreparednesrecognitionintelligencesensors creativityIntelligence reality THEMATICRecent progress GROUPS AW PCCGE BiEASu NsCDs SRBF QuCMm 3DLDp ER AI BiS CcSln AR Ex (See bottom part panel) 44 EN 45 PM 46 BM 47 BR 48 AI 49 EC 50 PM 51 HM 52 BH 53 AI 34 BH 35 BH 36 AI 37 HM 38 PM 39 BR 40 AI 41 AI 42 AI 43 AI Plant Bioelectronics Neuroscience of Brain function Metamaterials Disaster Artifi cal Computational Augmented Exoskeleton AI Artifi cial Intelligence and Robots Asteroidcommunication Plasticcreativity eating Bionicsmapping Epigenetic preparednesCarbon intelligenceSmart windowscreativityWastewaterreality THEMATICFlexible GROUPS mining (medicine) change Nanotubes nutrient electronics Human-Machine Interaction & PC BiE NsC BF Mm Dp AI Cc AR Ex HM AM34 BH 35 BHPE36 AI BiN37 HM 38Ec PM 39 Cn BR 40 SWAI 41 WwAI 42 AI 43 AI AI FEArtifi cial Intelligence andBiomimetics Robots Asteroid 26 BR Plastic eating 27Bionics BR 28Epigenetic HM Carbon29 BMSmart30 windows WastewaterEC 31 EN 32 BR Flexible 33 EC mining (medicine) change Nanotubes nutrient electronics Human-MachineEC InteractionElectronics & & Computing Artifi cial Targeting cell 2D Materials Hyperloop Hydrogels Water splitting Nanowires Warfare HMNano-LEDs AM synapse/PE brain deathBiN pathways Ec Cn SW Ww dronesFE Biomimetics 26 BR 27 BR 28 HM 29 BM 30 EC 31 EN 32 BR 33 EC Electronics & ComputingBH Biohybrids Artifi cial AsBTargeting cell TcD2D Materials 2DMHyperloop HydrogelsHyL WaterHy splitting NanowiresWS Warfare NW WDNano-LEDs EC NL synapse/ brain17 death pathwaysHM 18 BM 19 PM 20 BR 21 PM 22 dronesEN 23 EC 24 AI 25 EC Flying car Hydrogen fuel Bioprinting Graphene Optoelectronic 4D Printing Genomic Gene therapy Biohybrids Biomedicine AsB TcD 2DM HyL Hytransistors WS NW WDvaccines NL BH BM 17 HM 18 BM 19 PM 20 BR 21 PM 22 EN 23 EC 24 AI 25 EC Flying car FCHydrogen fuel HyFBioprinting BiPrGraphene OptoelectronicGT 4D PrintingOE Genomic4DP Gene therapyGV GeT BM Biomedicine transistors vaccines PM Printing & Materials 9 AI 10 EN 11 BM 12 EC 13 EC 14 PM 15 BM 16 BM FC BioinformaticsHyF MoltenBiPr salt ReprogrammedGT OEThermoelectric4DP Energy GV GeTComputing Automated PM Printing & Materials 9 AI 10 ENreactors11 BM human12 cells EC 13paint EC 14 harvestingPM 15 BM 16 memoryBM indoor farming BR Breaking Resource Boundaries Bioinformatics Molten salt Reprogrammed Thermoelectric Energy Computing Automated BiOreactors MsRhuman cells RhCpaint harvestingTP* EH memory CMindoor farming AiF BR Breaking Resource Boundaries BiO 2 MsRBH 3 RhCEC 4TP* BM EH5 EN 6 CMEN 7 AiFEC 8 AI EN Energy Bio- 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Energy BH EC BM EN EN EC AI luminescenceEN Bio- SI Social Innovations luminescence Bil

EUROPEAN POSITION EUROPEAN SI Social Innovations

Bil 1 EN © European Union, 2019 — Print: KI-01-19-162-EN-C | PDF: KI-01-19-162-EN-N Image source crystaleyestudio, #67640955, 20 17. Source: Fotolia.com. EUROPEAN POSITION EUROPEAN

1 EN © European Union, 2019 — Print: KI-01-19-162-EN-C | PDF: KI-01-19-162-EN-N Image source crystaleyestudio, #67640955, 20 17. Source: Fotolia.com. LIKEHOODLIKEHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT OF SIGNIFICANT USE / EXPANSION USE / EXPANSION BY 2038 BY 2038 STRONG STRONG Local food Basic income Owning & sharing New journalist Alternative Life caching Car-free city R/W culture Access/commons Reinventing Collaborative Body 2.0 & the Gamifi cation Local food circles Basic income Owning & sharinghealth New data journalist networksAlternative Lifecurrency caching Car-free city R/W culture Access/commonsdiversifying Reinventing economy Collaborative educationBody 2.0 & the R&IGamifi spaces cation quantifi ed self circles health data networks currency diversifying economy education R&I spaces quantifi ed self Lf LfBI BIOsh OshNj NjAC LCAC CFLC RwCCF AE RwCRe AECS ReB2 CSGm B2 GmCHAPTER 15 88 88 SI 89 SI 89SI 90 SI SI9091 SISI 9192 SISI 9392 SI SI94 93 SI 95SI 94 SI 96 SI 95 SI 97 SI 96SI 98 SI 97SI 99 SI SI98100 SISI 99 SI 100 SI

1 Glowing plants, Visualization of gene expression 22 New Catalysts, Fertilizers 42 Synchronization with the physical world, Recycling, Security, Hardware & So— ware 82 Soup with 3D printed twist, Technology to help 1 Glowing plants, Visualization of gene expression 22 New Catalysts, Fertilizers 42 Synchronization with the physical world, Recycling, Security, Hardware & So— ware 82 Soup with 3D printed twist, Technology to help Live instructions, Therapy people with dysphagia 2 Biohybrid 23 Batteries, Nanosensors, Electrochromic devices, Live instructions, Therapy63 Dedicated chipsets and algorithms, Systems people with dysphagia 2 23 Biohybrid FET, Heat dissipatorsBatteries, Nanosensors, Electrochromic43 Medical devices, applications, Military applications, 63 Dedicated chipsets83 and Bioplasics algorithms, for SkinSystems contact, Wound repair, 3 Waste-burning with lithiumfl ouride/ and devices FET, Heat dissipators 43 Medical applications, Military applications, 83 Bioplasics for Skin contact, Wound repair, 3 Waste-burning with lithiumfl ouride/ Industrial applications and devices electronics thoriumfl oride material, Collaborative eff orts in 24 Intelligence, Fuel autonomy, Microdrones, Industrial applications 64 Spin relaxation and spin transport, Combination electronics Canada, Protoypesthoriumfl inoride China material, Collaborative eff ortsDefense in against24 Intelligence,drones Fuel autonomy, Microdrones,44 Ground- and fl ying Generator Airborne Energy with Claytronics 64 Spin relaxation and84 spin Unscripted transport, chatbots, Combination Reuse & integration with Systems 44 major platforms, Enterprise & Customer84 Service 4 DestructionCanada, of cancer Protoypes cells, Macrophages in China to kill 25 Multitasking LEDDefense displays, againstDeep UVC, drones Optical Ground- and fl ying Generator Airborne Energy with Claytronics Unscripted chatbots, Reuse & integration with 65 Mimicking humans, Application demonstrators, Applications the Tuberculosis pathogen Data Communication 45 Epitranscriptomics, EmbryoSystems development major platforms, Enterprise & Customer Service 4 Destruction of cancer cells, Macrophages to kill 25 Multitasking LED displays, Deep UVC, Optical Control 65 Mimicking humans, Application demonstrators, 85 Sepsis detection, Lab-on-a-stick, CheapApplications lab-on- 5 (*No valuethe for TuberculosisEuropean position) pathogen - Thermoelectric 26 Asteroid detection,Data Examination Communication and mining 46 AST Micro-assay, Lab-on-a-Stick,45 Epitranscriptomics, Microfl uidic Embryo development 66 Attophysics, Ultra-precise time measurementControl a-chip manufacturing paint, Harvest of electriciy from waste heat technologies devices, AST Gadget for GPS applications VoIP 85 Sepsis detection, Lab-on-a-stick, Cheap lab-on- 5 (*No value for European position) - Thermoelectric 26 Asteroid detection, Examination and mining 46 AST Micro-assay, Lab-on-a-Stick, Microfl uidic 66 Attophysics, Ultra-precise86 Aquanaut time measurement technologies for hotels, Enteringa-chip manufacturing 6 Biologicalpaint, motion, Harvest Other sourcesof electriciy (wind, from heat, waste heat27 Plastic-colonizingtechnologies fungi, Micro-to-macro: 47 Nanofi ltration, New distillationdevices, solutions AST Gadget 67 Acoustic holograms, Touchable/printable radio, chemical) plastic-munching worms for GPS applications VoIPa sustainable underwater future 48 Pneumatic, Living muscle tissue, Hydrogel, holograms 86 Aquanaut technologies for hotels, Entering 6 Biological motion, Other sources (wind, heat, 27 Plastic-colonizing fungi, Micro-to-macro: 47 Nanofi ltration, New distillation solutions 67 87 Methane Hydrate Gas in China, Energy from 7 In-memory algorithms, Faster phase-shi— ing 28 Exoskeleton, Upper limbs, Internal organs Mechanical Acoustic holograms, Touchable/printable radio, chemical) plastic-munching worms 68 Electroencephalography (EEG, ECoG, fNIRS, methane hydrate gas on a large scale a sustainable underwater future computer memory 48 holograms 29 Epigenetic technologies for diagnosis and other 49 Quantum systems, QuasiparticlePneumatic, control Living muscle tissue,fMRI) Hydrogel, 87 Methane Hydrate Gas in China, Energy from 7 28 88 Community and indoor Gardening, Localised 8 Techno farmingIn-memory in extreme algorithms, conditions Faster phase-shi— ingtechnologies Exoskeleton, Upper limbs, Internal organs Mechanical 69 Breaking the Blood-Brain-Barrier,68 Electroencephalography New- and (EEG, ECoG, fNIRS, computer memory 50 Energy: 3D-printed turbine prototype, Food Systems, Permaculture methane hydrate gas on a large scale 9 Personal autonomous drones and rockets, 30 Nanotubes29 with fullerenes,Epigenetic On-chip technologies light for diagnosis3D-printing and other robots 49 for buildingQuantum systems, Quasiparticlenano-materials, control Genetically-engineeredfMRI) devices 89 Unconditional Minimum Basic Income,88 NationalCommunity and indoor Gardening, Localised Coordinated8 Techno fl ying farming taxi services in extreme conditions sources, Liquid biopsytechnologies chip 70 Cellular therapies, Tissue engineering and 51 Interpreting facial 50expressions Energy: and 3D-printed text, voice, turbine prototype, 69 Breaking the Blood-Brain-Barrier,Referendum New- on unconditional and basic incomeFood Systems, Permaculture 10 Production, Storage, Hydrogen-powered 31 Electrochromic materials, Liquid crystal heartbeat, breathing artifi cial tissues or organs nano-materials, Genetically-engineered devices 9 Personal autonomous drones and rockets, 30 Nanotubes with fullerenes, On-chip light 3D-printing robots for building 90 Healthbank for Health information, vehicles sandwich, Nanocrystals 71 Agrobots, Internet of Things in precision 89 Unconditional Minimum Basic Income, National Coordinated fl ying taxi services sources, Liquid biopsy chip 52 Medical uses, Food/medication tracking, 70 Cellular therapies, TissueSharing engineering scientifi c and health data for money 51 Interpreting facial expressionsfarming, and text, In-fi voice, eld devices Referendum on unconditional basic income 11 Bones, tissue, skin, blood vessels and other 32 Nutrient recovery from wastewater, Biological Environmental sensing artifi cial tissues or organs human10 parts,Production, 3D-printed Storage, models Hydrogen-powered phosphate 31removal Electrochromic materials, Liquid crystal heartbeat, breathing 91 Large-scale investigative journalism 53 The Swarm-Organ project, Unmanned Aerial 72 Trust, Notarization, Smart contracts, Corporate 90 Healthbank for Health information, vehicles sandwich, Nanocrystals 71 Agrobots, Internet 92of ThingsCrypto-currencies in precision traded world-wide, 12 Microprocessors, Neuromorphic chips, 33 Transistors, Displays, Energy storage, Sensors, Vehicles 52 Medical uses, Food/medicationblockchain tracking, networks Sharing scientifi c health data for money farming, In-fi eld devicesGiving up cash Next-generation11 Bones, electronicstissue, skin, blood vessels and otherHealth monitoring,32 Nutrient 3D printing recovery from wastewater, Biological Environmental sensing 73 CRISPR as revolution in health, CRISPR in 54 Aluminium-ion batteries, Aluminium-air 91 Large-scale investigative journalism human parts, 3D-printed models phosphate removal agriculture 93 Live caching as an industry, Scrapbooking 13 Optical computing, 5D optical data storage, 34 Senses of plants, Parasites involved in plant batteries 53 The Swarm-Organ project, Unmanned Aerial 72 Trust, Notarization, Smart contracts, Corporate Photonic chips communication blockchain networks94 Banning cars from cities, New cities92 withoutCrypto-currencies traded world-wide, 12 Microprocessors, Neuromorphic chips, 33 Transistors, Displays, Energy storage,55 Fused Sensors, fi lament fabrication,Vehicles Stereolitography 74 Drug production, Fuel processing, Renewable cars Giving up cash 14 Exposure Next-generationto heat, Water contact electronics 35 Biochip, BiologicalHealth computer, monitoring, Biological 3D printing energy, Air purifi cation 56 New catalysts, Cheap54 materialAluminium-ion for electrodes, batteries, Aluminium-air 73 CRISPR as revolution in health, CRISPR in computer parts, Bio interface 95 Breakdown of established gatekeepers,93 15 Clinical trials, DNA vaccines for animals, Wearable energy devices 75 Changing landscapes and climate,agriculture Climate Live caching as an industry, Scrapbooking 13 Optical computing, 5D optical data storage, 34 Senses of plants, Parasites involved in plant batteries Ownership disruption Better delivery pathways 36 Testing and Infl uencing imagination and Engineering: greenhouse gas removal Photonic chips communication 57 Medical technologies, Environmental 74 Drug production, Fuel processing, Renewable 94 Banning cars from cities, New cities without creativity 55 Fused fi lament fabrication, Stereolitography 96 Online mediated sharing, Rise of the Commons, 16 Disease areas, Treatments monitoring, Marketing 76 Gut bacteria and immunotherapy and gene cars 14 Exposure to heat, Water contact 35 Biochip, Biological computer, Biological energy, Air purifi cation Based-peer production 37 Brain electrical activity and biomarker mapping, 56 New catalysts, Cheap materialactivity, for electrodes, Probiotic bacteria and depression 17 Atomristors, ENODe, Junction-based artifi cial 58 Civil engineering, Protective clothing, computer parts, Bio interface 75 Changing landscapes and climate, Climate 95 Breakdown of established gatekeepers, synaptic15 device,Clinical epiRAM trials, DNA vaccines for animals, Improving cognitive functions Energy storage, So— roboticsWearable energy devices77 Low-cost carbon dioxide splitting 97 Increase in diversity of actors in and forms of Engineering: greenhouseeducation gas removal Ownership disruption Better delivery pathways 38 Cloaking devices,36 Testing Photovoltaic and Infldevices, uencing imagination and 18 Targeting new pathways to trigger cell death 59 Exploring new storage57 solutions,Medical technologies, Environmental78 Quantum key distribution from orbit, Medical imagingcreativity 98 Makerspaces on the rise 96 Online mediated sharing, Rise of the Commons, 16 Disease areas, Treatments New uses for CO monitoring, Marketing Faster data rates, Blockchain76 Gut bacteria and immunotherapy and gene 19 2D Semiconductors, 2D Magnets, Black 2 Based-peer production 39 Submarine 37(smart-)cable network, Robots & activity, Probiotic bacteria99 Tools and for depressiontracking common devices, phosphorous ink Brain electrical activity and biomarker60 Portable mapping, diagnostic devices, Electrodiagnosis, 79 New-generation sensors, Man-machine 17 Atomristors, ENODe, Junction-based artifi cialAI emergency response 58 Civil engineering, Protective clothing, Body 2.0 – monitoring at the workplace Improving cognitive functions Screening (medicine) synergy, Legislation, Connectivity77 Low-cost carbon dioxide splitting 97 Increase in diversity of actors in and forms of 20 Section ofsynaptic Hyperloop device, Track fiepiRAM nalised in NL, Energy storage, So— robotics 40 Duelling Networks, Capsule Networks, One Shot 100 Data generation combined with participationeducation Further tests under way at several sites 38 Cloaking devices, Photovoltaic devices,61 Ultrasonic gesture sensing, Optical cameras 80 Neuromorphic chips for object recognition 18 Targeting new pathways to trigger cell deathImage Recognition 59 Exploring new storage solutions, 78 Quantum key distributionvia fromgaming, orbit, Physical Education and Health Medical imaging and sensors, Gesture decoding equipment 81 New technologies for tidal and wave energy 98 Makerspaces on the rise 21 Regenerative medicine, So— robots, Biothreat New uses for CO Faster data rates, Blockchain 19 2D Semiconductors, 2D Magnets, Black41 Computational Creativity 2 harvesting detection devices, Optogenetics 39 Submarine (smart-)cable network,62 RobotsMedical & imaging, Food quality, Mining, 99 Tools for tracking common devices, phosphorous ink 60 Portable diagnostic devices, Electrodiagnosis, 79 New-generation sensors, Man-machine AI emergency response Screening (medicine) synergy, Legislation, Connectivity Body 2.0 – monitoring at the workplace 20 Section of Hyperloop Track fi nalised in NL, 40 Duelling Networks, Capsule Networks, One Shot 100 Data generation combined with participation Further tests under way at several sites 61 Ultrasonic gesture sensing, Optical cameras 80 Neuromorphic chips for object recognition Image Recognition and sensors, Gesture decoding equipment via gaming, Physical Education and Health 21 Regenerative medicine, So— robots, Biothreat 81 New technologies for tidal and wave energy 41 Computational Creativity detection devices, Optogenetics 62 Medical imaging, Food quality, Mining, Moreharvesting on the Radical Innovation Research & Innovation Breakthrough Inquirer

Poster_Table_of_radical_Innovations_A0_PRINT_FINAL.indd 1 the Radical Innovation7/11/19 16:30 Poster_Table_of_radical_Innovations_A2.indd 1 More on 7/11/19 16:42 Research & Innovation Breakthrough Inquirer

Poster_Table_of_radical_Innovations_A0_PRINT_FINAL.indd 1 7/11/19 16:30 Poster_Table_of_radical_Innovations_A2.indd 1 7/11/19 16:42 760

THEMATIC GROUPS

AI Artificial Intelligence and Robots BH Biohybrids BR Breaking Resource Boundaries

HM Human-Machine Interaction & Biomimetics BM Biomedicine EN Energy

EC Electronics & Computing PM Printing & Materials SI Social Innovations

1 Glowing plants, Visualization of gene expression 52 Medical uses, Food/medication tracking, Environmental sensing 2 Biohybrid 53 The Swarm-Organ project, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles 3 Waste-burning with lithiumflouride/thoriumfloride material, Collaborative 54 Aluminium-ion batteries, Aluminium-air batteries efforts in Canada, Protoypes in China 55 Fused filament fabrication, Stereolitography 4 Destruction of cancer cells, Macrophages to kill the Tuberculosis pathogen 56 New catalysts, Cheap material for electrodes, Wearable energy devices 5 (*No value for European position) - Thermoelectric paint, Harvest of electriciy 57 Medical technologies, Environmental monitoring, Marketing from waste heat 58 Civil engineering, Protective clothing, Energy storage, Soft robotics 6 Biological motion, Other sources (wind, heat, radio, chemical) 59 Exploring new storage solutions, New uses for CO 7 In-memory algorithms, Faster phase-shifting computer memory 2 60 Portable diagnostic devices, Electrodiagnosis, Screening (medicine) 8 Techno farming in extreme conditions 61 Ultrasonic gesture sensing, Optical cameras and sensors, Gesture decoding 9 Personal autonomous drones and rockets, Coordinated flying taxi services equipment 10 Production, Storage, Hydrogen-powered vehicles 62 Medical imaging, Food quality, Mining, Recycling, Security, Hardware & 11 Bones, tissue, skin, blood vessels and other human parts, 3D-printed Software models 63 Dedicated chipsets and algorithms, Systems and devices 12 Microprocessors, Neuromorphic chips, Next-generation electronics 64 Spin relaxation and spin transport, Combination with Claytronics 13 Optical computing, 5D optical data storage, Photonic chips 65 Mimicking humans, Application demonstrators, Control 14 Exposure to heat, Water contact 66 Attophysics, Ultra-precise time measurement for GPS applications VoIP 15 Clinical trials, DNA vaccines for animals, Better delivery pathways 67 Acoustic holograms, Touchable/printable holograms 16 Disease areas, Treatments 68 Electroencephalography (EEG, ECoG, fNIRS, fMRI) 17 Atomristors, ENODe, Junction-based artificial synaptic device, epiRAM 69 Breaking the Blood-Brain-Barrier, New- and nano-materials, Genetically- 18 Targeting new pathways to trigger cell death engineered devices 19 2D Semiconductors, 2D Magnets, Black phosphorous ink 70 Cellular therapies, Tissue engineering and artificial tissues or organs 20 Section of Hyperloop Track finalised in NL, Further tests under way at 71 Agrobots, Internet of Things in precision farming, In-field devices several sites 72 Trust, Notarization, Smart contracts, Corporate blockchain networks 21 Regenerative medicine, Soft robots, Biothreat detection devices, 73 CRISPR as revolution in health, CRISPR in agriculture Optogenetics 74 Drug production, Fuel processing, Renewable energy, Air purification 22 New Catalysts, Fertilizers 75 Changing landscapes and climate, Climate Engineering: greenhouse gas 23 Batteries, Nanosensors, Electrochromic devices, FET, Heat dissipators removal 24 Intelligence, Fuel autonomy, Microdrones, Defense against drones 76 Gut bacteria and immunotherapy and gene activity, Probiotic bacteria and 25 Multitasking LED displays, Deep UVC, Optical Data Communication depression 26 Asteroid detection, Examination and mining technologies 77 Low-cost carbon dioxide splitting 27 Plastic-colonizing fungi, Micro-to-macro: plastic-munching worms 78 Quantum key distribution from orbit, Faster data rates, Blockchain 28 Exoskeleton, Upper limbs, Internal organs 79 New-generation sensors, Man-machine synergy, Legislation, Connectivity 29 Epigenetic technologies for diagnosis and other technologies 80 Neuromorphic chips for object recognition 30 Nanotubes with fullerenes, On-chip light sources, Liquid biopsy chip 81 New technologies for tidal and wave energy harvesting 31 Electrochromic materials, Liquid crystal sandwich, Nanocrystals 82 Soup with 3D-printed twist, Technology to help people with dysphagia 32 Nutrient recovery from wastewater, Biological phosphate removal 83 Bioplasics for Skin contact, Wound repair, electronics 33 Transistors, Displays, Energy storage, Sensors, Health monitoring, 3D 84 Unscripted chatbots, Reuse & integration with major platforms, Enterprise printing & Customer Service Applications 34 Senses of plants, Parasites involved in plant communication 85 Sepsis detection, Lab-on-a-stick, Cheap lab-on-a-chip manufacturing 35 Biochip, Biological computer, Biological computer parts, Bio interface 86 Aquanaut technologies for hotels, Entering a sustainable underwater future 36 Testing and Influencing imagination and creativity 87 Methane Hydrate Gas in China, Energy from methane hydrate gas on a 37 Brain electrical activity and biomarker mapping, Improving cognitive large scale functions 88 Community and indoor Gardening, Localised Food Systems, Permaculture 38 Cloaking devices, Photovoltaic devices, Medical imaging 89 Unconditional Minimum Basic Income, National Referendum on 39 Submarine (smart-)cable network, Robots & AI emergency response unconditional basic income 40 Duelling Networks, Capsule Networks, One Shot Image Recognition 90 Healthbank for Health information, Sharing scientific health data for money 41 Computational Creativity 91 Large-scale investigative journalism 42 Synchronization with the physical world, Live instructions, Therapy 92 Crypto-currencies traded world-wide, Giving up cash 43 Medical applications, Military applications, Industrial applications 93 Live caching as an industry, Scrapbooking 44 Ground- and flying Generator Airborne Energy Systems 94 Banning cars from cities, New cities without cars 45 Epitranscriptomics, Embryo development 95 Breakdown of established gatekeepers, Ownership disruption 46 AST Micro-assay, Lab-on-a-Stick, Microfluidic devices, AST Gadget 96 Online mediated sharing, Rise of the Commons, Based-peer production 47 Nanofiltration, New distillation solutions 97 Increase in diversity of actors in and forms of education 48 Pneumatic, Living muscle tissue, Hydrogel, Mechanical 98 Makerspaces on the rise 49 Quantum systems, Quasiparticle control 99 Tools for tracking common devices, Body 2.0 – monitoring at the workplace 50 Energy: 3D-printed turbine prototype, 3D-printing robots for building 100 Data generation combined with participation via gaming, Physical 51 Interpreting facial expressions and text, voice, heartbeat, breathing Education and Health

Science, research and innovation performance of the EU 2020 Source: European Commission, DG Research and Innovation based on Warnke, P et al., 2019 Stat. link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/srip/2020/partii/chapter15/figure_15-2.xlsx 761

Comparing the extremes of the different distributions provides the following highlights:

1. The AI and robotics revolution

AI&R form a cluster of innovations that will cluster of RIBs identified and the one with the have a huge impact on the future world highest average potential for significant use in economy and society. It is the most populous 20 years’ time.

Emotion recognition Emotion recognition has been about patterns, etc.) and even extending them applying advanced image-processing to other species. Applications cover areas algorithms to images (or videos) of the such as marketing (detecting minute, human face. Recent developments have subconscious reactions to advertising or extended the field to include other means products), smart devices that adapt to our of gauging emotions (text analysis, mood, and law enforcement (improved lie tone of voice, heartbeat and breathing detectors).

In some areas of the AI&R cluster, such as mobility, health, education and food seems chatbots, Europe is strong while in other areas, at least as important as fostering the further like computing memory, Europe’s capacities are emergence of upcoming innovations. It is vital relatively weak. Consolidating the application for Europe to pursue trajectories that unlock the pathways emerging from the surge of innovations potential of these technologies to support better in algorithms and hardware in sectors such as solutions able to meet citizens’ needs.

2. Fast-emerging innovations

The results include 45 RIBs currently at a low ÝÝ Hyperspectral imaging level of maturity which are expected to develop ÝÝ Warfare drones quickly and find important use in the coming 20 ÝÝ Harvesting methane hydrate years. Among these, seven RIBs are expected ÝÝ Thermoelectric paint to be particularly fast moving: ÝÝ Neuroscience of creativity and imagination ÝÝ 4D printing ÝÝ Neuromorphic chip ÝÝ Biodegradable sensors

Neuromorphic chip Modelled on biological brains, neuromorphic specific purposes such as object recognition, chips are less flexible and powerful than voice and gesture recognition, emotion the best general-purpose chips, but highly analytics, health analytics or robot motion, efficient for specialised tasks. They can boost and can moderate their power consumption.

the development of AI-based systems for CHAPTER 15 762

Among the 45 potentially fast-moving RIBs, ÝÝ Water splitting relative weaknesses in Europe were found in ÝÝ Computing memory the following: ÝÝ Molten salt reactors ÝÝ Graphene transistors ÝÝ 4D printing ÝÝ Energy harvesting ÝÝ Bioluminescence ÝÝ Hyperloop ÝÝ Automated indoor farming

4D printing 4D printing adds an additional element of of change. Among the ground-breaking time to 3D printing/additive manufacturing. applications foreseen are drug devices 4D-printed objects can change shape or self- reacting to heat changes in the body, shape- assemble over time if exposed to a stimulus memory materials enabling solar panels – heat, light, water, magnetic field or another to auto-rotate towards the sun, and self- form of energy – which activates the process repairing infrastructures.

Amongst the 45 potentially fast-growing RIBs, ÝÝ Chatbots relative strengths in Europe were found in: ÝÝ Quantum cryptography ÝÝ Marine and tidal-power technologies ÝÝ Harvesting methane hydrate ÝÝ Underwater living Interestingly, in the field of quantum ÝÝ Bioplastics cryptography, the EU leads in terms of patents ÝÝ 3D printing of food but China is the leader in publications. ÝÝ Lab-on-a-chip

Lab-on-a-chip A lab-on-a-chip integrates laboratory healthcare infrastructure, a more active role functions into a single device of small for patients in monitoring their own health, dimensions. It promises better and faster as well as enabling citizens to engage in diagnostics, especially in areas with poor environmental monitoring.

3. Highly speculative areas

The following highly speculative topics made it ÝÝ Aluminium-based energy into the 100 RIBs: ÝÝ Airborne wind turbine ÝÝ Artificial photosynthesis ÝÝ Neuromorphic chip ÝÝ 4D printing ÝÝ Neuroscience of creativity and imagination ÝÝ Asteroid mining ÝÝ Plant communication ÝÝ Thermoelectric paint ÝÝ Spintronics ÝÝ Artificial synapse/brain ÝÝ Bioelectronics ÝÝ Flying car 763

Bioelectronics Bioelectronics is the use of biological assembly or self-repair) and bio-inspired materials and architectures inspired by hardware architectures (e.g. massive biological systems to design and build parallelism) to be used in new sensors, information-processing machinery and actuators and information-processing related devices. Researchers hope to develop systems that are smaller, work faster/better bio-inspired materials (e.g. capable of self- and require less power.

In the first eight RIBs on this list, Europe them at the junction between R&I policy and has noteworthy capacities. In the other five industry policy concerns. Such RIBs are found, for (indicated in italics) its position is either unclear example, in the area of nanotechnology (nano- or weak as regards maintaining and further LEDs, nanowires, carbon nanotubes). Hydrogels advancing its position as a pioneering actor in and holograms also fall into this category. Their newly emerging technologies. The neuromorphic further development is not so much a matter chip also deserves special attention because, of R&I policy but more a subject for industry in spite of its low maturity, expectations on its policy or other policies concerned with the widespread use in 2038 are very high. respective domains. Given their potential, it is worth asking whether appropriate regulatory 4. Mature, yet radical frameworks are in place and if complementary social innovations are needed for the successful Some of the RIBs identified are quite mature – and beneficial exploitation of these RIBs, they have been known for a while and have been or whether an industry policy is required to subjects of R&D and patenting. At the same strengthen Europe’s position in the areas of time, they have a great deal of unexploited carbon nanotubes, nanowires and hydrogels, growth potential in the perspective of 2038. where currently it is not world-leading. Their relative technological maturity places

Hydrogels These natural or synthetic polymeric drug-development concepts. In the longer networks are capable of holding large term, we can imagine curative soft robots volumes of water that can replicate the performing surgery at microscopic and sub- dynamic signalling involved in biological microscopic levels, and hydrogels in mobile- processes, such as cell/tissue development. phone screens sensing environmental In the near future, hydrogels will provide pollutants and informing an app. the basis for first-aid kits and innovative CHAPTER 15 764

5. A view from Europe’s Research and Technology Organisations (RTOs)2

During a workshop entitled ‘Future technology contribution of the technologies to society and for prosperity - horizon scanning’ in Oslo on the transition towards sustainability. 2-3 July 20193, we asked a number of Europe’s RTOs and funding bodies4 the question: ‘What The technologies presented can be clustered into are the next emerging technologies Europe five areas, technological frameworks: biological should invest in?’. The workshop was part of transformation; smart materials; marine a wide public consultation on the draft strategic technologies; low-energy data transmission; plan for the next EU Research and Innovation and ‘power to X’. Programme, Horizon Europe. 1. Biological transformation includes RTOs play a very important role in the European the increasing exploitation of biological Innovation system, intermediating between knowledge as well as the increasing science, technology, industry and government. spread of biomimetic design. Biological Based on their special position, we asked the transformation brings together the basic directors of participating RTOs and funding disciplines of biotechnology, engineering bodies to single out the technology they thought and information technology. Methods of was the most important for future prosperity. adaptive data processing (machine-learning algorithms) are just as important as Current policy debate in the EU already focuses biotechnological production processes. Their a lot on information and communication tech- combination and intelligent networking, nologies, including AI, the digital transformation5 including biological components and and Industry 4.06. Participants were asked to principles for their optimisation were focus on areas ‘other than digital only’. considered key to a bio-intelligent economy that enables prosperity and healthy The result was a collection of emerging and sustainable (qualitative rather than technologies considered to have particularly quantitative) growth. The areas discussed strong potential, in their opinion, to create in the workshop included Human-Machine prosperity, including economic growth and Interaction, smart farming, gene technology broader benefits. An essential factor was the and neuro-technologies.

2 3 The workshop was organised by the Directorate for Prosperity in the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation and the Research Council of Norway. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/research_and_ innovation/ki-03-19-551-en-n.pdf 4 Organisations represented: Agency for Higher Education, Science and Innovation Funding in Romania; Austrian Institute of Technology; CEA Tech; Cenate AS; CSEM; Enterprise Ireland; European Commission Directorate-General Research & Innovation and the Joint Research Centre; Firda AS; European Association of Research & Technology Organisations; Flanders Make vzw; Fraunhofer Gesellschaft; International Iberian Nanotechnology Laboratory; Innovate UK; J. Stefan Institute; Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology; Łukasiewicz Research Network; National Research Council of Italy; Norwegian Research Centre; Norwegian Biotechnology Advisory Board; Research Council of Norway; Research Institutes of Sweden; Research Institute on Computer Science and Control at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences; SINTEF; State Secretary to the Minister of Research and Higher Education of Norway; Technology Agency of Czechia; Tecnalia Research & Innovation; TNO; University of Malta; University of Applied Sciences Salzburg; VTT Ltd. 5 https://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/policy/digital-transformation_en 6 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2016/570007/IPOL_STU(2016)570007_EN.pdf 765

Figure 15-3 Overview of technology frameworks and technologies

Smart Digital Fish Nanomaterials SMART MATERIALS MARINE TECHNOLOGIES Renewable Additive Smart Human-Machine Plastics Manufacturing Farming Interaction Freshwater under sea BIOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATION Smart Dust Neuro- Gene Hydrogen technologies Technology LOW ENERGY DATA POWER TO X TRANSMISSION Carbon Capture Coherent Optics and Storage

Science, research and innovation performance of the EU 2020 Source: Müller, J and L Potters (2019) Future technology for prosperity: Horizon scanning by Europe's technology leaders, European Commission Stat. link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/srip/2020/partii/chapter15/figure_15-3.xlsx

2. Smart materials (e.g. renewable plastics, 3. Low-energy data transmission will be smart nanomaterials and additive manufac- important as data networks are expected turing) build on technology that provides them to expand massively in the next few years. with additional functionalities, capacities, The two technologies discussed in the and features in bulk and/or at the interface, workshop include coherent optics, which including adaptability and the capacity to allow the transmission of larger volumes be both sensors and actuators, or to create of data over longer distances, with lower new structures even on a very small scale. energy consumption on the existing fibre- Further development of smart materials can optic infrastructure; and smart dust, which contribute to environmental sustainability is a completely different way of transmitting (enabling, recycling, repair and self-healing and receiving data opening up completely or sensing) and find important uses in different application domains. Smart dust healthcare (e.g. thanks to their properties, combines systems for ubiquitous Internet of some smart materials can be used in medical Things (IoT) with ultra-low power consumption applications that enable better treatment of or energy autonomy. It encompasses patients and new forms of therapy) as well as intelligent sensors that are degradable and other areas of application. able to communicate among one another. CHAPTER 15 766

4. Power to X refers to the electrification of exploit large amounts of fresh water below industrial processes and the transition in the ocean surface, often hidden in caves. This the way heavy industries, and especially water could be used to irrigate regions with the chemical industry, use power. The two low precipitation, for example, for farming or technologies discussed in the workshop are to provide communities with fresh water. hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. The long-term vision is to turn natural sources All areas have in common the fact that they of energy, such as sunlight, directly into heat, relate to societal challenges and have the fuels and further chemical products, which potential for systemic changes. They involve could massively increase the efficiency of the need to better understand the underlying the chemical industry through direct power systems, a combination of disciplines and conversion, also closely aligned with carbon collaboration and co-creation of all main actors, capture and storage technologies. with industry taking a leading role in this. The role of policymakers is seen as shaping the conditions 5. Marine technologies emphasise the poten- for a strong innovation ecosystem whereby all tial of the seas. Digital fish, the monitoring of actors in the innovation process are connected fish via sensors, enables a digital twin of fish and can create value, creating critical mass to to be created. This enables the lives of fish tackle strategic economic and societal domains, to be tracked and studied, hunger mitigated, and to deploy favourable regulation and disease stress and further stress factors financial instruments as an impetus for collective to reduce diseases, fish mortality to be im- innovation. Participants also emphasised active proved, and the optimisation of feeding pro- engagement with civil society and citizens from cesses and fish well-being. The other area dis- the very start of technology development. cussed concerns the potential to discover and 767

6. In conclusion: waves of change and horizon scanning

Which areas should Europe prioritise? How that address broader concerns of life and the should strengths and weaknesses be dealt with? ecosystem. For many (Kastrinos and Vercruysse, Such strategic questions cannot be answered by 2019; Messerli et al., 2019), and the EU has horizon scanning, although it can inform us about expressed commitments in this respect, the SDGs the implications of one or other of the choices. will, to a considerable degree, shape the value- A scan of the horizon at a specific point in time creating structures and processes of the future. raises our awareness of potentially important areas of R&I and provides for a better-informed However, this is neither a clear case nor R&I strategy. In its simplest form, it enables a finished battle. Although mining methane us to ask ourselves whether or not we need to hydrate – to use an obvious example of an invest in all these areas and why, and to better area where Europe appears to be strong – understand the opportunity cost of our choices. could solve resource problems, it also poses significant environmental risks. The values of While this is an important strategic function, it is sustainability and environmental performance also important to note that a complete scan of are not clear-cut. While science, technology, the horizon is very costly, and the picture of the research and innovation can enable and horizon is a moving one. The Finnish experience contribute to sustainability pursuits, they cannot with the two successive studies provides alone provide a new green wave. What they can some insight into the speed of change. New do is to provide answers to those who claim that understandings and experiments change people’s such a wave is impossible and that sustainability views of what is doable and worth doing, while cannot be achieved. They must show that it is societal values, norms and beliefs also influence doable and provide the tools for achieving it. It the pursuits of scientists and engineers. is society’s duty to decide that it is worth doing.

The waves of change associated with the In this context, it is the duty of horizon scanning functioning of economic expectations have, to showcase different alternatives and to since the Second World War, combined with allow for the continuous assessment of those notions of technological performance associated alternatives as routes towards sustainability. with military concerns to drive technological This does not necessarily mean that only the innovation in domains that have massively most efficient routes must be followed. Often increased economic productivity. Several authors short-term efficiency is a long-term liability. (Mazzucato and Perez, 2014; Mazzucato, 2018; Priorities and choices must be informed and Perez, 2016) have argued that humanity needs to achieve that, scans of the horizon need to to shift towards different sets of technological be systematic, continuous and comprehensive, aspirations that reflect humanistic ideals and feeding into decision-making processes that the value of our ecosystem – such as the UN are both engaging and participative, involving Sustainable Development Goals. The workshop in broad sets of stakeholders and the concerned Oslo related technologies clearly to a ‘purpose’. public, in a new EU R&I policy that will In RIBRI, we see some signs of such waves of successfully pave the way to sustainability. change. The most visible innovation drive related to the ‘digital revolution’ is expected to be CHAPTER 15 followed by a more diverse wave of innovations 768

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