Horizon Scanning

Applied Futures Research: overview & illustrative methods, case studies, lessons learned

Dr. Wendy Schultz Infinite Futures The Future of the Futures 6 July 2018 “The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking. It cannot be changed without changing our thinking.” Albert Einstein

“Nothing is so painful to the human mind as great and sudden change.” Mary Shelley REFRAMING our assumptions REFRAMING our assumptions REFRAMING our assumptions See the world afresh Ask new questions

REFRAMING our assumptions ‘Because Change Happenz’ video by Zurich Insurance, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5UvMZyQrnY Interlocking methods Foresight Conceptual Framework and Basic Methods Inventory What’s the focus?

Impacts of Change Alternative Futures • Futures wheels • Axes of uncertainty scenarios • Verge Futures Framework • Scenario Archetypes • Cross-impact matrix • Design/Experiential Futures • Influence mapping • Manoa Scenario Building • Three Horizons (Change Mindsets) • Morphological analysis • Gartner Hype Cycle (Change Dispersal) • Image inventories

A worry? A surprise?

Awareness of Strategy Change Preferred Futures and Action • Horizon Scanning • Appreciate Inquiry • Backcasting • Datamining • Future Search • Early warning • Trendspotting • Future Workshop indicators • Emerging Issues Analysis • Integrated Visioning • Roadmapping • Wild Cards • Community Futures • Windtunnelling • Causal Layered Analysis

A goal?

FUTURES RESEARCH METHODS Case 1: UK Land Use Futures

No frame. Bad idea. No anthropologists. Worse idea. No theoretical understanding of futures. Catastrophic idea. 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International ExtentExtent of environmentalenvironmental an area-based area/site-based hharmonisationarmonisation eecosystemcosystem pprotectionrotection conservation conservationconservation of conservation sspeciespecies servicesservices AvailabilityAvailability of infrastructure migration BiodiversityBiodiversity CoastalCoastal measures infrastructure practpracticesices ((intertidal)intertidal) Water StringencyStringency ofof Natural Environmenthabitatshabitats RateRate of coastalcoastal emissionemission reductionreduction erosionerosion targets for agricultural pproductionroduction AbilityAbility to SeaSea level riserise eevaluatevaluate MineralMineral ssiteite OverlandOverland eecosystemcosystem restorationrestoration andand Pressure to Pervasive-Pervasive- ResourceCostCost of Management wwaterater rrunounof seservicesrvices managementmanagement integrate ness ofof development in QualityQuality of the ddesignationsesignations in a biodiversitybiodiversity vulvulnerablenerable environmentenvironment blue-blue-greengreen gridgrid areas RiskRisk of InvestmentsInvestments in DesireDesire to food maintainmaintain a foodinoodingg mitigation stockstock of food Intra-urbanIntra-urban FrequencyFrequency ofof SpreadSpread of measmeasuresures protectedprotected landland ((sewer)sewer) extremeextreme rainfallrainfall eventsevents ddiseaseisease AvailabilityAvailability ofof foodinoodingg HistoricalHistorical attattractiveractive GHG openopen space Frequency emissionsemissions andand height of Access to storm surges facilitiesfacilities within PhysicalPhysical walkingwalking and SeasonalSeasonal watewaterr Climate Change exerciseexercise cyclingcycling distancedistance Governance shortagesshortages TemperatureTemperature Efectectivenessiveness iincreasencrease inin ImpactImpact ofof Access to of thethe UK climateclimate recreationalrecreational PPlanninglanning GrowingGrowing changechange SSystemystem Mitigation and Adaptation Social facilitiesfacilities Access to 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RestrictionRestriction stockstock ffertiliserertiliser useuse ororganicganic C oorganicrganic C Unemploy-Unemploy- oonn housinghousing mmentent hhealthealth andand access to socsocialial rentedrented CongestionCongestion FrequencyFrequency of good qualityq hhousingousing supplysupply wellbeinwellbeingg hhousingousing ruralrural llandand AverageAverage aagege occupancyoccupancy ofof farmers eventsevents Social DesireDesire to Rural Land Use segregationsegregation maintain highhigh hhousingousing prices Use of IntensityIntensity ofof chemicalchemical ploughingploughing ConversionConversion ofof ChangeChange in Ability to inputsinputs MaturityMaturity ofof agriculturalagricultural to humanhuman dietdiet identify UKUK forestforest non-non- HouseholdHousehold Changessuccessorsuccessor stock aagriculturalgricultural House lalandnd ddebtebt availabilityavailability AvailabilityAvailability ofof planningplanning Conversion ofof ConversionConversion of aagriculturalgricultural PeatlandPeatland 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GGreenreen BBeltselts Pressure to household ininternaliseternalise possessionpossession InterestInterest of rural eexternalitiesxternalities fromfrom areaarea residentsresidents agagriculturalricultural DualDual incomeincome Interfacein local landland use pproductionroduction households DesireDesire to issuesissues AvailabilityAvailability ofof benebeneft from loaloansns positivepositive externalitiesexternalities ofof Weight of Pillar PerceivedPerceived 2 in EU CAP DemandDemand forfor ProximityProximity ofof perception of countrysidecountryside Water overcrowd-overcrowd- degree ooff PricePrice resourceresource living space rruralural llandand to urbanisationurbanisation consciousnessconsciousness SuboptimalitySuboptimality citcityy iingng availabilityavailability of housinghousing wrt PerceivedPerceived of consumersconsumers in workwork locationlocation negativenegative food purchasespurchases DemandDemand forfor Urban Land Use externalitiesexternalities ofof citiescities NumberNumber ofof housinghousing NumberNumber of Multifunctional-Multifunctional- UrbanUrban WeightWeight ooff the HouseholdsHouseholds hohomesmes DensityDensity ofof pproroft motive in ity ooff agricultural ggrowthrowth UrbanUrban AttachmentAttachment to businessbusiness modelsmodels DemandDemand forfor hhousingousing intensiintensifcaca-- rromanticisedomanticised ffarmers’armers’ water from UK ViabilityViability ofof rural Service-Service- visionvision of landland decisiondecisionss agriculturalagricultural Intensitycommunitiescomm ofunities Changes ttionion orientationorientation of Size ofof use sector economyeconomy househouseholdsholds Access to UrbanUrban publlicpubllic CommutingCommuting spsprawlrawl DemandDemand forfor transportationtransportation ddistanceistance Agricultural transporttransport Clarity ofof Viability ofof ImportanceImportance DemandDemand forfor Economies ooff KnowledgeKnowledge AttractivenessAttractiveness farmingfarming RuralRural laboulabourr intensityintensity ooff 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commoditycommodity andand agriculturalagricultural crocropp andand animalanimal productsproducts perper DemandDemand forfor the CAPCAP agagriculturericulture ooff ffarmsarms productivityproductivity warehousewarehouse ppricerice energyenergy marketmarketss pproductsroducts pproductionroduction unitunit landland StabilityStability ooff Demandfoor space for Suburban EmploymentEmployment eemploymentmployment shiftshift fromfrom retailretail spacespace manufacturing ImportanceImportance ofof to servicesservices DemandDemand forfor DemandDemand for Efciency in CentralisationCentralisation cconservationonservation Land-Basedtoutourismrism & mineralsminerals based warewarehousinghousing aandnd env. 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RecyclingRecycling ofof wasteInnovation copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba What’s the focus?

A worry? A surprise?

Awareness of Strategy Change Preferred Futures and Action • Datamining • Appreciate Inquiry • Backcasting • Trendspotting • Future Search • Windtunnelling • Horizon Scanning • Future Workshop • SWOT or TO-WS • Emerging Issues Analysis • Integrated Visioning • Milestones • Wild Cards • Community Futures • Early warning • Causal Layered Analysis indicators • PERTT/ GANTT A goal?

FUTURES RESEARCH METHODS The first step in foresight is noticing change. The Awareness various methods available address different types of change, at different stages of maturity: of Change • Horizon Scanning – comprehensive change identification strategy – how change itself changes • Datamining – best for extensively observed, measurable trends • Trendspotting – used for qualitative mapping of social and cultural trends • Emerging issues analysis – identifying change as it first creates social impacts • Wild cards ID – spotting potential for emerging change or low-probability, high-impact change EMERGING ISSUES ANALYSIS

Awareness What it is: identifying initial sources of change, of Change usually by monitoring outliers. What it needs: access to multiple sources / feeds from outlier / fringe communities. Mode: usually qualitative; based on spotting first cases. Strengths: advanced warning of impending change; opportunities to manage and take advantage of emerging change. Weaknesses: outliers as sources often seen as lacking credibility; not all changes emerge. Cost: very time consuming – spotting first cases means sifting through masses of observations. Life-cycle of Change

Life Cycle of Change system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts 3rd horizon global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and drivers institutions and government newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media laypersons’ magazines; websites; documentaries

Developmentan of issue local; few cases; specialists’ journals and emerging issues websites scientists; artists; radicals; mystics Schultz, adapted from Molitor Time What’s your theory of change? What do you think causes change? What do you think impedes change? Sources of Change Data What are key trends of change in the wider world? What are signals of potential transformations? What new visions of international relations are emerging? How will those make your current assumptions obsolete? What do you think is changing? WEF Trends & Risks 2017

• Changing climate • Rising income and wealth disparity • Degrading environment • Increasing polarization of societies • Rising cyber dependency • Ageing population • Rising urbanization Tapped ongoing scanning + also crowdsourced. Systems perspective. Multidisciplinary team. Excellent understanding of futures concepts.

Case 2: SSHRC Global Challenges http://www.futurescaper.com/ FUTURESCAPER What’s the focus?

A worry? A surprise?

Awareness of Strategy Change Preferred Futures and Action • Horizon Scanning • Appreciate Inquiry • Backcasting • Datamining • Future Search • Windtunnelling • Trendspotting • Future Workshop • SWOT or TO-WS • Emerging Issues Analysis • Integrated Visioning • Milestones • Wild Cards • Community Futures • Early warning • Causal Layered Analysis indicators • PERTT/ GANTT A goal?

FUTURES RESEARCH METHODS The second step is critiquing the impacts of Impacts change. What will change affect first? Who of Change will it affect disproportionately? • Futures Wheels – map cascades of change • Verge – explores impacts of change on people and social systems • Cross-impact Analysis – catalogues effects of change on each other • Influence Mapping – shows how multiple changes connect and interact • Three Horizons – shows how different mindsets approach change • Gartner Hype Cycle – maps difference between enthusiasm and actuality MICROSOFT: PRODUCTIVITY VISION, 2015, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-tFdreZB94&t=14s

AUGMENTED REALITY KEIICHI MATSUDA, HYPER-REALITY, here: https://vimeo.com/166807261

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ABOUND FUTURES WHEELS Impacts What it is: explores and maps successive of Change cascades of impacts created by a single significant change; helps extrapolate surprises, disruptions, and backlashes as well as emerging opportunities. What it needs: basic change data, conceptual structure, diverse contributors. Mode: usually qualitative and participatory. Strengths: can help identify unexpected impacts, ‘black swan’ events, and areas of potential backlash or constraint. Weaknesses: not seen as authoritative; can lack rigour. Cost: researcher/participant time.

Futures Wheels developed by Dr Jerome Glenn of the UNU Millennium Project FUTURES WHEELS: EXTRAPOLATING DISRUPTION

Jerome Glenn Invented futures wheels in 1971 as a method for policy analysis and forecasting Also called Implementation Wheel, Impact Wheel, Mind Mapping, and Webbing. Joel Barker “Cascade thinking:” go out at least three orders of implications to find big surprises http://www.strategicexploration.com/i-wheel/index.htm FUTURES WHEELS

Silent, eye-tracking menu Office sound navigation goggles Earbud headphones to barriers talk to/hear computer developed

work noisier work? travel? primary effects economy?

voice input / output, home/ education? families? biometric passwords

impact communications? hobbies? impact environment? secondary impact effects FUTURES WHEELS

Silent, eye-tracking menu Office sound navigation goggles Earbud headphones to barriers talk to/hear computer developed

work noisier

voice input / output, biometric passwords

New licensing oppty for no passwords market for “great popular singers and required voices” actors drop in carpal tunnel Pirate market: syndrome great voices napsterized Rather talk to your machine than Increase in Collapse of you… worker keyboard wrist productivity rest market Decline in worker compensation costs Futures Wheels Championed futures & systems as a culture shift. Success = ‘learning one new thing every day’. Vivid expression of all output. Case 3: Pepsico Advanced Research Wellness & Oversight Scenario

SYSTEM DYNAMICS FOCUS: HEALTH & WELLNESS and CONSUMER CONTROL • New consumers flood into the world’s markets TECHNOLOGY FORECAST • Empowered by networked ‘DIY’ • Food = medicine of the future; ‘prescription food’ technologies, including biotech • Leverage EMR to design food for phenotype cohorts • EMR+ integrated personal health • Home genome test impacts food selection systems support increased personal • Real-time monitoring of metabolites responsibility for health • Embedded RFID sensors create • Functional ingredients + feedback networked food / environment monitoring WEAK SIGNALS • Concerns over food purity, toxicity, • Integrated personal wellness systems safety, effects lead to consumer • Consumers adopt physical and cognitive enhancement NGO ‘policing’ technologies • Smart packaging linked to EMR+ • Food can influence genetic expression creates interactive customized • Rising concern over toxicity and food safety products • Rising use of intelligent product management • Consumers looking to improve and enhance physical / cognitive performance create & market their own products

OVERVIEW

• Global Middle Class Gains Weight: The maturing of the BIC economies in the ‘10s shifts the ‘global calorie imbalance’ farther down the socioeconomic scale. The resulting global ‘obesity epidemic’ drives public health costs sky-high – and also generates new regulatory and oversight mechanisms.

• Smart Packages + EMRs + Apps = Your Health: Embeddable sensors and nano-materials enable networked smart packaging that interacts with electronic medical records: personal health and wellness data kept in the ‘cloud’ is accessed via a Medical Information System Portal. Easy-to-use apps interconnect with food packaging and consumers’ electronic medical records, coaching diet and food choices.

• From Health Networks to Consumer Cops: Concerned consumers formed ‘health affinity networks’ to update and expand the MedInfoSys. They tapped the data broadcast by micro-sensors in smart packaging (and the wider environment), organizing watchdog networks for safety, purity, and sustainability of popular products. This evolved into a growing global cohort of ‘consumer cops’. The resulting consumer oversight networks are now powerful lobbying forces in state, federal, and international politics (generally better organized and informed than the political institutions).

• Intentional Networks Design Wellness Optimizers: The bio-hackers of Gens Y and Z created open source designs to hack their own health via geno-metabolic monitoring. Crowd-sourcing product design, they created ‘libraries’ of synthetic bio- generated foodaceuticals for personal performance enhancement as well as optimizing baseline health indicators.

• Own-brand Pharmafood Overtakes Big Brands: In the ‘20s, the new generations of DIY consumers leveraged networking for food production. Drawing on open-source food-aceutical designs, entrepreneurs could quickly tailor new products to specific genomic / metabolic cohorts. Crowd-financing funded these new pharmafood design runs, which put to use idle bottling and packaging plants worldwide. Products were shipped straight to customers, or marketed via customer affinity networks. The active erosion of megabrands had begun. What’s the focus?

A worry? A surprise?

presentation titleFUTURES | 30 December 2010 RESEARCH METHODS34 The third step is imagining possible Alternative outcomes of change. What futures might Futures the combined effects of change generate? Futures thought experiments.

• 2X2 Scenario Building – focuses on managing uncertainty for decisions • Morphological Analysis – focuses on managing multiple interacting variables. • Inductive Scenario Building – focuses on layering change impacts into narratives. • Scenario Archetypes – quickly explore boundaries of thinking about change • Manoa Scenario Building – focusses on understanding turbulent surprises. 2X2 SCENARIO BUILDING Alternative Futures What it is: chooses two highly important but highly uncertain drivers of change, and creates a 2X2 matrix by expressing each driver as a continuum between two opposite uncertain outcomes. What it needs: clearly stated decision focus and drivers inventory. Mode: usually qualitative and participatory. Strengths: very focussed on outcomes; best for 10-20 year scenarios; highly structured. Weaknesses: often fails to question assumptions or current paradigms that may be overturned by turbulence. Cost: data; facilitator; participant time. The “Scenario Cross” Method

• 2X2 scenario table • Generated by ‘axes of uncertainty’ • Chosen from most important, most uncertain drivers • Deductive Clear focus on human values within nature. Asked a million tough questions about futures. Scenarios used to range-find vision values + details. Strong champions of the process.

Case 4: UK Natural England ScENE 2060: DynamicsScENE 2060: Dynamics

F: Succeed through Science G: Connect for Life • Driven by momentum of innovation; • Driven by optimism and generational • Paradigm acknowledges core link shift / culture shift; between productivity and sustainability: • Paradigm shift to evolving, open innovate for conservation within free source, networked complexity; markets; • Unique: transformational paradigm • Unique: we couple transformational shift in economic models (see Kelly’s high technology with an appreciation of New Rules for the New Economy). limits.

• Driven by inertia of old models / • Driven by fear and suspicion; institutions; • Paradigm shift to ‘shrinking pie’ market • No paradigm shift: free market model; economy is driven by accelerating • Unique: splintering / fragmenting of innovation; globalisation. • Unique: we make no changes to existing assumptions (we do nothing). B: Go for Growth C: Keep It Local

Comparing: • Underlying mode of change; • Key paradigm shift; • What’s unique to this scenario vis-à-vis the other scenarios. ScENE 2060:ScENE Decision2060: Decision points? points? Decisions Possible and policy Backlash future emphases outcomes

Focus on Environmental consumption, crises force C: protectionist Keep It Local ignore limits worldview.

B: Focus on Global Go for Growth competition F: Continuing productivity, ignore forces long-range Succeed through as we are: innovations for Science B - present trends extended consequences. sustainable efficiency. Focus on ICT, Digital natives G: ignore social self-organize, networking leave power Connect for brokers Life powerless. Reading this diagram: B to C: If all countries aim for wealthy lifestyles, resource constraints will bite back, forcing resource owners into a highly protectionist mode, resulting in a splintering and fragmentation of the globalised economy. B to F: B is the most likely scenario for the short-term, and if the UK perspective remains short-sighted, negative impacts will build up. One possible consequence is a joint consumer / comparative advantage backlash that results in a new economic appreciation of the utility and profitability of working within limits to conserve resources B to G: If old school business leaders remain locked in traditional economic models, they will be left behind in the transition to a more complex world in which rights, property, power, and decisions are mediated by evolving networks of relations that are simultaneously very powerful locally and extremely influential across global interconnections. MANOA SCENARIO BUILDING Alternative Futures What it is: multiple emerging issues generate potential impacts and cross- impacts; these are woven into a narrative depicting a possible surprising, transformative, or disruptive future.

What it needs: 3-5 changes for each scenario generated; knowledge of futures wheels, influence mapping, and cross-impact analysis. Mode: merges logical/intuitive/creative; participatory. Strengths: helps map surprising outcomes and ‘black swan’ events; generates nuanced detail; critiques assumptions. Weaknesses: takes more time to generate four scenarios; rigour dependent upon structures included by facilitator or researcher. Cost: scanning data; research and participant time.

Developed by Dr. Wendy Schultz for the Hawai‘i Research Center for Futures Studies