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Horizon Scan: Future Trends for Community Resilience in Emergencies

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Horizon Scan: Future Trends for Community Resilience in Emergencies Horizon Scan: Future trends for community resilience in emergencies NEW FACES OF REFOCUS ON SOCIAL CHANGE SOCIAL COMMUNITY Women, minorities and historically-excluded Economic and social stresses of the past decade have communities are gaining greater leadership prominence, driven many communities to reconnect, re-develop, or rising through both formal and informal channels. Major create new local resources, and to focus on community parties in Scotland, Wales and England have elected powers of support and supply. This has put a spotlight women leaders, including those who identify as BAME, RQVXFFHVVIXOPRGHOVDVZHOODVKLJKOLJKWLQJGHÀFLWVLQ RU /*%74, &RPPXQLW\ JURXSV WKDW DLP WR EH ÀW IRU social infrastructure, which has sparked examination the future must ensure greater diversity and inclusion of issues around public spaces, access to services, at all levels, and re-imagine the leadership skills and and other inadequacies of community governance or qualities required for successful and effective 21st century authority. organisations. INTRODUCTION Horizon scanning research explores potential future trends, seeking to enable us to better understand uncertainty. The trend cards which follow are the result of research, by Changeist, in consultation with Nesta. They are a tool to help generate discussions and activities for exploring possible futures in Community Resilience in Emergencies. The trends represent a cross section of forces which are likely to shape the landscape of resilience over the next decade. The goal of this exploration is to help communities, individuals and organisations find useful ways to collaborate, and to strengthen trust, communication, responsibility, and use of resources in future emergencies. These trends were used in a workshop with people from different organisations including community, academia and frontline practitioners to create five future scenarios, demonstrating different forms of community resilience in emergencies. You can read more about the scenarios createdhttps://media.nesta.org.uk/documents/Community_resilience_booklet_v5.pdf and the discussions they prompt here. REFOCUS ON SEMI-FORMAL SOCIAL COMMUNITY SOCIAL RESPONDERS Economic and social stresses of the past decade have Around the world, as governments and aid organisations driven many communities to reconnect, re-develop, or have become stretched, a range of new, semi-formal create new local resources, and to focus on community HQWLWLHV KDYH HPHUJHG WR ÀOO JDSV LQ UHVSRQVH 7HDP powers of support and supply. This has put a spotlight Rubicon, a semi-professional service organisation RQVXFFHVVIXOPRGHOVDVZHOODVKLJKOLJKWLQJGHÀFLWVLQ organised by ex-military members, is one example. social infrastructure, which has sparked examination Others include voluntary regional organisations, faith- of issues around public spaces, access to services, based groups, and ad hoc teams which organise and other inadequacies of community governance or localised self-monitoring and resource management, as authority. well as providing training and assistance for volunteer community workers. TRENDS CONTENTS HEALTH/CARE ECONOMIC RECONSIDERED ECONOMIC Changing balance of faith 17 Health/care reconsidered 4 DIY culture 18 Changes in funding and structural approaches at the Life after brexit 5 Enhanced activism 19 NHS and other major care providers have opened the Platform citizenship 6 New faces of change 20 door to social sector organisations taking a larger role in Post-austerity economics 7 Refocus on community 21 Reimagining development & progress 8 Semi-formal responders 22 providing care and social support within communities. Sharing and peer economies 9 Urbanisation 23 At the same time, technology and economics are Volunteerism reshaped 24 pushing the burden of care onto the individual, from ENVIRONMENTAL Climate driven disruption 10 TECH self-monitoring and distance medicine to use of retail Resource instability 11 4th industrial revolution in the streets 25 and social channels for basic care. Likewise, a wider Decentralised networks 26 GHÀQLWLRQRI¶KHDOWK·DQG¶FDUH·WRHQFRPSDVVEURDGHU POLITICAL Open data 27 Rebalancing of power 12 wellness, mindfulness and mental wellbeing has opened Networked humanitarianism 13 VALUES the scope of resources providing care. Populist shift 14 Falling trust in institutions 28 Return of local power 15 Moving beyond poverty porn 29 SOCIAL Aging populations 16 SEMI-FORMAL URBANISATION SOCIAL RESPONDERS SOCIAL Around the world, as governments and aid organisations )DVW JURZWK RI PDQ\ RI WKH 8.·V XUEDQ FHQWUHV LV have become stretched, a range of new, semi-formal creating population pressure within these densifying HQWLWLHV KDYH HPHUJHG WR ÀOO JDSV LQ UHVSRQVH 7HDP environments, as well as draining ex-urban and rural Rubicon, a semi-professional service organisation areas of population, and therefore labour, community, organised by ex-military members, is one example. and economic resources. These shifts are creating Others include voluntary regional organisations, faith- pressure and tension points on formal employment based groups, and ad hoc teams which organise opportunities, housing, and social services for both. localised self-monitoring and resource management, as Vulnerable populations in urban environments are also well as providing training and assistance for volunteer at greater threat from the effects of increasing heat community workers. waves in built environments. HEALTH/CARE ECONOMIC RECONSIDERED Changing balance of faith 17 DIY culture 18 Changes in funding and structural approaches at the Enhanced activism 19 NHS and other major care providers have opened the New faces of change 20 door to social sector organisations taking a larger role in Refocus on community 21 Semi-formal responders 22 providing care and social support within communities. Urbanisation 23 At the same time, technology and economics are Volunteerism reshaped 24 pushing the burden of care onto the individual, from TECH self-monitoring and distance medicine to use of retail 4th industrial revolution in the streets 25 and social channels for basic care. Likewise, a wider Decentralised networks 26 GHÀQLWLRQRI¶KHDOWK·DQG¶FDUH·WRHQFRPSDVVEURDGHU Open data 27 wellness, mindfulness and mental wellbeing has opened VALUES the scope of resources providing care. Falling trust in institutions 28 Moving beyond poverty porn 29 URBANISATION VOLUNTEERISM SOCIAL SOCIAL RESHAPED )DVW JURZWK RI PDQ\ RI WKH 8.·V XUEDQ FHQWUHV LV Rates of traditional volunteering are reducing. In 2018, creating population pressure within these densifying RQO\SHUFHQWRIWKHJOREDOYROXQWHHUZRUNIRUFH RI environments, as well as draining ex-urban and rural million) participated through formal channels. However, areas of population, and therefore labour, community, recent data suggest a surge among younger Britons, as and economic resources. These shifts are creating more people contribute their time informally, through pressure and tension points on formal employment grassroots movements, or other avenues for lending opportunities, housing, and social services for both. WLPHDQGHQHUJ\WRFDXVHVRILQWHUHVW7KLVUHGHÀQLWLRQ Vulnerable populations in urban environments are also of volunteerism has opened up wider opportunities for at greater threat from the effects of increasing heat public participation, provision of skills beyond basic waves in built environments. RXWUHDFKRUVHUYLFHODERXUDQGQHZDYHQXHVIRUIXOÀOOLQJ civic participation. LIFE AFTER PLATFORM ECONOMIC ECONOMIC BREXIT CITIZENSHIP In the UK, and internationally, private information The impacts of Brexit will reverberate for the next decade services—media, retail, transportation, and security—are whether it ultimately results in a managed withdrawal, a displacing public ones. Facebook claims forty million no-deal withdrawal, or no withdrawal at all. No matter XVHUVLQWKH8.DQGÀYHPLOOLRQVXEVFULEHWR$PD]RQ how it plays out, areas which form the industrial base of 3ULPH ,QFUHDVLQJO\ FLWL]HQV LGHQWLI\ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU the UK are expected to face relocations, loss of population WKHVHSODWIRUPVHUYLFHVRYHUSXEOLFVHUYLFHVROXWLRQV,W·V and skilled workers, lost economic opportunity, and possible that more platforms, such as Airbnb, WeWork, political vacuums, both internally and externally. Local Uber, or Deliveroo will move to become civic service RUJDQLVDWLRQVDUHOLNHO\WRH[SHULHQFHVLJQLÀFDQWEXGJHW providers in the future. Platform provision of key social and resource cuts as well. However, this provides services suggest great possibilities for providing greater opportunities for organisations to begin considering focus on linking hyperlocal and global communities, alternative sources of capital, beyond government EXW DOVR FRPSOLFDWHV PDWWHUV LI SULYDWH SURÀWPDNLQJ funding. In future, crowdfunding, philanthropy, and enterprises take on social sector services but are not impact investments are likely to play a greater role in held to the same rules and regulations. RQJRLQJÀQDQFLDOVWDELOLW\ VOLUNTEERISM 4TH INDUSTRIAL SOCIAL RESHAPED TECH REVOLUTION IN Rates of traditional volunteering are reducing. In 2018, THE STREETS RQO\SHUFHQWRIWKHJOREDOYROXQWHHUZRUNIRUFH RI million) participated through formal channels. However, Industrial technologies, such as the Internet of Things, recent data suggest a surge among younger Britons, as robotics, machine learning, and other elements of the more people contribute their time informally, through so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution are now easily grassroots movements, or other avenues for lending accessible to
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