Horizon Scan: Future Trends for Community Resilience in Emergencies

Horizon Scan: Future trends for community resilience in emergencies

NEW FACES OF REFOCUS ON SOCIAL CHANGE SOCIAL COMMUNITY

Women, minorities and historically-excluded Economic and social stresses of the past decade have communities are gaining greater leadership prominence, driven many communities to reconnect, re-develop, or rising through both formal and informal channels. Major create new local resources, and to focus on community parties in Scotland, Wales and England have elected powers of support and supply. This has put a spotlight women leaders, including those who identify as BAME, RQVXFFHVVIXOPRGHOVDVZHOODVKLJKOLJKWLQJGHÀFLWVLQ RU /*%74, &RPPXQLW\ JURXSV WKDW DLP WR EH ÀW IRU social infrastructure, which has sparked examination the future must ensure greater diversity and inclusion of issues around public spaces, access to services, at all levels, and re-imagine the leadership skills and and other inadequacies of community governance or qualities required for successful and effective 21st century authority. organisations. INTRODUCTION

Horizon scanning research explores potential future trends, seeking to enable us to better understand uncertainty. The trend cards which follow are the result of research, by Changeist, in consultation with Nesta.

They are a tool to help generate discussions and activities for exploring possible futures in Community Resilience in Emergencies.

The trends represent a cross section of forces which are likely to shape the landscape of resilience over the next decade. The goal of this exploration is to help communities, individuals and organisations find useful ways to collaborate, and to strengthen trust, communication, responsibility, and use of resources in future emergencies.

These trends were used in a workshop with people from different organisations including community, academia and frontline practitioners to create five future scenarios, demonstrating different forms of community resilience in emergencies. You can read more about the scenarios createdhttps://media.nesta.org.uk/documents/Community_resilience_booklet_v5.pdf and the discussions they prompt here.

REFOCUS ON SEMI-FORMAL SOCIAL COMMUNITY SOCIAL RESPONDERS

Economic and social stresses of the past decade have Around the world, as governments and aid organisations driven many communities to reconnect, re-develop, or have become stretched, a range of new, semi-formal create new local resources, and to focus on community HQWLWLHV KDYH HPHUJHG WR ÀOO JDSV LQ UHVSRQVH 7HDP powers of support and supply. This has put a spotlight Rubicon, a semi-professional service organisation RQVXFFHVVIXOPRGHOVDVZHOODVKLJKOLJKWLQJGHÀFLWVLQ organised by ex-military members, is one example. social infrastructure, which has sparked examination Others include voluntary regional organisations, faith- of issues around public spaces, access to services, based groups, and ad hoc teams which organise and other inadequacies of community governance or localised self-monitoring and resource management, as authority. well as providing training and assistance for volunteer community workers. TRENDS CONTENTS HEALTH/CARE ECONOMIC RECONSIDERED ECONOMIC Changing balance of faith 17 Health/care reconsidered 4 DIY culture 18 Changes in funding and structural approaches at the Life after brexit 5 Enhanced activism 19 NHS and other major care providers have opened the Platform citizenship 6 New faces of change 20 door to social sector organisations taking a larger role in Post-austerity economics 7 Refocus on community 21 Reimagining development & progress 8 Semi-formal responders 22 providing care and social support within communities. Sharing and peer economies 9 Urbanisation 23 At the same time, technology and economics are Volunteerism reshaped 24 pushing the burden of care onto the individual, from ENVIRONMENTAL Climate driven disruption 10 TECH self-monitoring and distance medicine to use of retail Resource instability 11 4th industrial revolution in the streets 25 and social channels for basic care. Likewise, a wider Decentralised networks 26 GHÀQLWLRQRI¶KHDOWK·DQG¶FDUH·WRHQFRPSDVVEURDGHU POLITICAL Open data 27 Rebalancing of power 12 wellness, mindfulness and mental wellbeing has opened Networked humanitarianism 13 VALUES the scope of resources providing care. Populist shift 14 Falling trust in institutions 28 Return of local power 15 Moving beyond poverty porn 29

SOCIAL Aging populations 16

SEMI-FORMAL URBANISATION SOCIAL RESPONDERS SOCIAL

Around the world, as governments and aid organisations )DVW JURZWK RI PDQ\ RI WKH 8.·V XUEDQ FHQWUHV LV have become stretched, a range of new, semi-formal creating population pressure within these densifying HQWLWLHV KDYH HPHUJHG WR ÀOO JDSV LQ UHVSRQVH 7HDP environments, as well as draining ex-urban and rural Rubicon, a semi-professional service organisation areas of population, and therefore labour, community, organised by ex-military members, is one example. and economic resources. These shifts are creating Others include voluntary regional organisations, faith- pressure and tension points on formal employment based groups, and ad hoc teams which organise opportunities, housing, and social services for both. localised self-monitoring and resource management, as Vulnerable populations in urban environments are also well as providing training and assistance for volunteer at greater threat from the effects of increasing heat community workers. waves in built environments. HEALTH/CARE ECONOMIC RECONSIDERED Changing balance of faith 17 DIY culture 18 Changes in funding and structural approaches at the Enhanced activism 19 NHS and other major care providers have opened the New faces of change 20 door to social sector organisations taking a larger role in Refocus on community 21 Semi-formal responders 22 providing care and social support within communities. Urbanisation 23 At the same time, technology and economics are Volunteerism reshaped 24 pushing the burden of care onto the individual, from TECH self-monitoring and distance medicine to use of retail 4th industrial revolution in the streets 25 and social channels for basic care. Likewise, a wider Decentralised networks 26 GHÀQLWLRQRI¶KHDOWK·DQG¶FDUH·WRHQFRPSDVVEURDGHU Open data 27 wellness, mindfulness and mental wellbeing has opened VALUES the scope of resources providing care. Falling trust in institutions 28 Moving beyond poverty porn 29

URBANISATION VOLUNTEERISM SOCIAL SOCIAL RESHAPED

)DVW JURZWK RI PDQ\ RI WKH 8.·V XUEDQ FHQWUHV LV Rates of traditional volunteering are reducing. In 2018, creating population pressure within these densifying RQO\SHUFHQWRIWKHJOREDOYROXQWHHUZRUNIRUFH RI environments, as well as draining ex-urban and rural million) participated through formal channels. However, areas of population, and therefore labour, community, recent data suggest a surge among younger Britons, as and economic resources. These shifts are creating more people contribute their time informally, through pressure and tension points on formal employment grassroots movements, or other avenues for lending opportunities, housing, and social services for both. WLPHDQGHQHUJ\WRFDXVHVRILQWHUHVW7KLVUHGHÀQLWLRQ Vulnerable populations in urban environments are also of volunteerism has opened up wider opportunities for at greater threat from the effects of increasing heat public participation, provision of skills beyond basic waves in built environments. RXWUHDFKRUVHUYLFHODERXUDQGQHZDYHQXHVIRUIXOÀOOLQJ civic participation. LIFE AFTER PLATFORM ECONOMIC ECONOMIC BREXIT CITIZENSHIP In the UK, and internationally, private information The impacts of Brexit will reverberate for the next decade services—media, retail, transportation, and security—are whether it ultimately results in a managed withdrawal, a displacing public ones. Facebook claims forty million no-deal withdrawal, or no withdrawal at all. No matter XVHUVLQWKH8.DQGÀYHPLOOLRQVXEVFULEHWR$PD]RQ how it plays out, areas which form the industrial base of 3ULPH ,QFUHDVLQJO\ FLWL]HQV LGHQWLI\ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU the UK are expected to face relocations, loss of population WKHVHSODWIRUPVHUYLFHVRYHUSXEOLFVHUYLFHVROXWLRQV,W·V and skilled workers, lost economic opportunity, and possible that more platforms, such as Airbnb, WeWork, political vacuums, both internally and externally. Local Uber, or Deliveroo will move to become civic service RUJDQLVDWLRQVDUHOLNHO\WRH[SHULHQFHVLJQLÀFDQWEXGJHW providers in the future. Platform provision of key social and resource cuts as well. However, this provides services suggest great possibilities for providing greater opportunities for organisations to begin considering focus on linking hyperlocal and global communities, alternative sources of capital, beyond government EXW DOVR FRPSOLFDWHV PDWWHUV LI SULYDWH SURÀWPDNLQJ funding. In future, crowdfunding, philanthropy, and enterprises take on social sector services but are not impact investments are likely to play a greater role in held to the same rules and regulations. RQJRLQJÀQDQFLDOVWDELOLW\

VOLUNTEERISM 4TH INDUSTRIAL SOCIAL RESHAPED TECH REVOLUTION IN

Rates of traditional volunteering are reducing. In 2018, THE STREETS RQO\SHUFHQWRIWKHJOREDOYROXQWHHUZRUNIRUFH RI million) participated through formal channels. However, Industrial technologies, such as the Internet of Things, recent data suggest a surge among younger Britons, as robotics, machine learning, and other elements of the more people contribute their time informally, through so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution are now easily grassroots movements, or other avenues for lending accessible to individuals. As access to these simple, but WLPHDQGHQHUJ\WRFDXVHVRILQWHUHVW7KLVUHGHÀQLWLRQ effective tools for observation or inspection increases of volunteerism has opened up wider opportunities for and becomes cheaper and more available to the public, public participation, provision of skills beyond basic FRPPXQLWLHVDUHEHQHÀWWLQJ:LWKEURDGHUDYDLODELOLW\RI RXWUHDFKRUVHUYLFHODERXUDQGQHZDYHQXHVIRUIXOÀOOLQJ basic technical skills, individuals and local entities have civic participation. a better ability to develop and maintain these tools and the systems and services they enable. LIFE AFTER PLATFORM ECONOMIC ECONOMIC BREXIT CITIZENSHIP In the UK, and internationally, private information The impacts of Brexit will reverberate for the next decade services—media, retail, transportation, and security—are whether it ultimately results in a managed withdrawal, a displacing public ones. Facebook claims forty million no-deal withdrawal, or no withdrawal at all. No matter XVHUVLQWKH8.DQGÀYHPLOOLRQVXEVFULEHWR$PD]RQ how it plays out, areas which form the industrial base of 3ULPH ,QFUHDVLQJO\ FLWL]HQV LGHQWLI\ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU the UK are expected to face relocations, loss of population WKHVHSODWIRUPVHUYLFHVRYHUSXEOLFVHUYLFHVROXWLRQV,W·V and skilled workers, lost economic opportunity, and possible that more platforms, such as Airbnb, WeWork, political vacuums, both internally and externally. Local Uber, or Deliveroo will move to become civic service RUJDQLVDWLRQVDUHOLNHO\WRH[SHULHQFHVLJQLÀFDQWEXGJHW providers in the future. Platform provision of key social and resource cuts as well. However, this provides services suggest great possibilities for providing greater opportunities for organisations to begin considering focus on linking hyperlocal and global communities, alternative sources of capital, beyond government EXW DOVR FRPSOLFDWHV PDWWHUV LI SULYDWH SURÀWPDNLQJ funding. In future, crowdfunding, philanthropy, and enterprises take on social sector services but are not impact investments are likely to play a greater role in held to the same rules and regulations. RQJRLQJÀQDQFLDOVWDELOLW\

4TH INDUSTRIAL DECENTRALISED TECH REVOLUTION IN TECH NETWORKS

THE STREETS Decentralised models—from mesh networks, to blockchain, to cellular organisational patterns using Industrial technologies, such as the Internet of Things, open source tools—have become more resilient options robotics, machine learning, and other elements of the for organising and connecting. The opportunities to so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution are now easily engage with civic actors virtually through networked accessible to individuals. As access to these simple, but SODWIRUPV VXFKDVDFWLYLVWQHWZRUN(GJHU\GHUV0LVVLQJ effective tools for observation or inspection increases Maps, Digital Humanitarians) provides access to a far and becomes cheaper and more available to the public, greater amount of intellectual capital and resources FRPPXQLWLHVDUHEHQHÀWWLQJ:LWKEURDGHUDYDLODELOLW\RI than civil society organisations have traditionally had basic technical skills, individuals and local entities have access to. These models also provide greater resilience a better ability to develop and maintain these tools and in instances of disruption of any one resource or the systems and services they enable. organisation. POST-AUSTERITY REIMAGINING ECONOMIC ECONOMICS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT &

The long tail of post-recession austerity has led to a PROGRESS restructuring of many public services, but has also spurred a generational rethink around economic There is an increasing push for measures of progress models and social contracts. Reconsideration of large and development to move away from mere economic scale public investment now sits alongside proposals LQGLFDWRUV WR LQFOXGH FLWL]HQ ZHOOEHLQJ 3UHVHQWGD\ for new relationships between public and private, and examples include the commissioner for future generations includes the re-emergence of older social models like LQ:DOHVDQG1HZ=HDODQG·V:HOOEHLQJ%XGJHW6LPLODU cooperatives, and new ones, like universal basic income, proposals for new measurements of national or local and post-capitalist theories of economics based on health and success are expected. This indicates is a sustainability and balance. greater push toward identifying indicators of societal progress which incorporate human and planetary well being and new measures of resilience.

DECENTRALISED OPEN TECH NETWORKS TECH DATA

Decentralised models—from mesh networks, to The decade-old open data movement is providing blockchain, to cellular organisational patterns using access to vital geographic, demographic, and technical open source tools—have become more resilient options LQIRUPDWLRQ DW ORZ RU QR FRVW IRU FLWL]HQ SRSXODWLRQV for organising and connecting. The opportunities to and non-expert groups. Useful tools for planning, engage with civic actors virtually through networked tracking and response to emerging threats and needs— SODWIRUPV VXFKDVDFWLYLVWQHWZRUN(GJHU\GHUV0LVVLQJ including open mapping, environmental and health Maps, Digital Humanitarians) provides access to a far information—are ascendant. Open data and crowd greater amount of intellectual capital and resources sourced intelligence can provide an ability to ensure than civil society organisations have traditionally had participatory action in much more agile and inclusive access to. These models also provide greater resilience ways. in instances of disruption of any one resource or organisation. POST-AUSTERITY REIMAGINING SHARING & PEER ECONOMIC ECONOMICS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & ECONOMIC ECONOMIES

The long tail of post-recession austerity has led to a PROGRESS New business models and reinvigorated modes of restructuring of many public services, but has also collaboration enable individuals and organisations to spurred a generational rethink around economic There is an increasing push for measures of progress develop stronger peer-to-peer transactional systems, models and social contracts. Reconsideration of large and development to move away from mere economic IURP SURÀWPDNLQJ EXVLQHVVHV WR UHVRXUFH DQG DVVHW scale public investment now sits alongside proposals LQGLFDWRUV WR LQFOXGH FLWL]HQ ZHOOEHLQJ 3UHVHQWGD\ sharing. The circular economy is projected to add $1 for new relationships between public and private, and examples include the commissioner for future generations WULOOLRQSHUDQQXPWRWKHZRUOG·VHFRQRP\EXWEH\RQG includes the re-emergence of older social models like LQ:DOHVDQG1HZ=HDODQG·V:HOOEHLQJ%XGJHW6LPLODU hard economic terms, sharing models have opened up cooperatives, and new ones, like universal basic income, proposals for new measurements of national or local opportunities for sharing of labour and resources, such and post-capitalist theories of economics based on health and success are expected. This indicates is a as through timebanking and community currencies, sustainability and balance. greater push toward identifying indicators of societal creation of community assets, like shared kitchens, and progress which incorporate human and planetary well networks and platforms for facilitating open access. being and new measures of resilience.

OPEN FAILING TRUST IN TECH DATA VALUES INSTITUTIONS

The decade-old open data movement is providing Trust in public institutions, government, business and the access to vital geographic, demographic, and technical media have been diminishing for most of the last decade LQIRUPDWLRQ DW ORZ RU QR FRVW IRU FLWL]HQ SRSXODWLRQV weakening the value of authority and information from and non-expert groups. Useful tools for planning, these groups. Scandals at several major international tracking and response to emerging threats and needs— aid, and faith-based organisations have also dented including open mapping, environmental and health the public trust and undercut funding from public and information—are ascendant. Open data and crowd private sources. Damaged trust has triggered new sourced intelligence can provide an ability to ensure efforts around transparency and governance, which participatory action in much more agile and inclusive has also opened the door for new entities which proffer ways. localised efforts for rebuilding community trust. This drives wider transparency, and encourages ethical approaches toward policy-making and work practices within organisational cultures. SHARING & PEER ECONOMIC ECONOMIES

New business models and reinvigorated modes of collaboration enable individuals and organisations to develop stronger peer-to-peer transactional systems, IURP SURÀWPDNLQJ EXVLQHVVHV WR UHVRXUFH DQG DVVHW sharing. The circular economy is projected to add $1 WULOOLRQSHUDQQXPWRWKHZRUOG·VHFRQRP\EXWEH\RQG hard economic terms, sharing models have opened up opportunities for sharing of labour and resources, such as through timebanking and community currencies, creation of community assets, like shared kitchens, and networks and platforms for facilitating open access.

FAILING TRUST IN MOVING BEYOND VALUES INSTITUTIONS VALUES POVERTY PORN

Trust in public institutions, government, business and the 6RPH FKDULWLHV DUH XQGHU ÀUH IRU WKHLU SRUWUD\DOV RI media have been diminishing for most of the last decade poverty and social vulnerability, particularly among weakening the value of authority and information from minority groups in the UK. Charities which push these groups. Scandals at several major international VWHUHRW\SHVRIWKHLUEHQHÀFLDULHVDUHEHLQJFKDOOHQJHG aid, and faith-based organisations have also dented for their protrayals. This has had a direct impact on public the public trust and undercut funding from public and fundraising efforts, and compelled a re-think of how aid private sources. Damaged trust has triggered new organisations solicit funding, and how the support they efforts around transparency and governance, which provide is represented or validated. As a result, some civil has also opened the door for new entities which proffer society organisations and those working in social good localised efforts for rebuilding community trust. This are reconsidering their communications campaigns drives wider transparency, and encourages ethical to ensure more equitable advocacy and respectful approaches toward policy-making and work practices depiction of a wide array of vulnerable populations and within organisational cultures. communities. CLIMATE-DRIVEN RESOURCE ENVIRON- ENVIRON- MENTAL DISRUPTION MENTAL INSTABILITY

Food and water security for communities looms as a Climate disruption and the breakdown of supply chains— growing problem and is anticipated to drive future including food, energy, and clean water—are making FRQÁLFWV &RPPRGLÀFDWLRQ RI QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV HJ natural resources more costly to acquire globally. This priced access to clean water and land), agricultural most severely impacts poorer and less well-connected productivity stressed by unpredictable rainfall patterns communities, and will have particularly heavy impacts and droughts, unreliable access to energy, and on those who are most vulnerable—the elderly, those with unsustainable waste management processes are disabilities and those living in dense, built environments. IXQGDPHQWDOO\ FKDQJLQJ FRPPXQLWLHV· DELOLW\ WR OLYH A shift toward systems which support multi-modal, well, enjoy secure livelihoods, and to weather external complex programming, are required, as are more shocks. Migration patterns, driven by rising sea levels transformational partnerships for joint problem solving, and climate change, are further compounding these and consideration of radical solutions in a changing challenges and necessitates a transformation in environment. planning and implementation of aid and support in crisis situations.

MOVING BEYOND VALUES POVERTY PORN

6RPH FKDULWLHV DUH XQGHU ÀUH IRU WKHLU SRUWUD\DOV RI poverty and social vulnerability, particularly among minority groups in the UK. Charities which push VWHUHRW\SHVRIWKHLUEHQHÀFLDULHVDUHEHLQJFKDOOHQJHG for their protrayals. This has had a direct impact on public fundraising efforts, and compelled a re-think of how aid organisations solicit funding, and how the support they provide is represented or validated. As a result, some civil society organisations and those working in social good are reconsidering their communications campaigns to ensure more equitable advocacy and respectful depiction of a wide array of vulnerable populations and communities. CLIMATE-DRIVEN RESOURCE REBALANCING ENVIRON- ENVIRON- POLITICAL MENTAL DISRUPTION MENTAL INSTABILITY OF POWER

Food and water security for communities looms as a Climate disruption and the breakdown of supply chains— A rebalancing of power and authority away from growing problem and is anticipated to drive future including food, energy, and clean water—are making centralised government toward regional areas, FRQÁLFWV &RPPRGLÀFDWLRQ RI QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV HJ natural resources more costly to acquire globally. This communities and individuals is producing a new priced access to clean water and land), agricultural most severely impacts poorer and less well-connected landscape of self-determination and responsibility. productivity stressed by unpredictable rainfall patterns communities, and will have particularly heavy impacts This has created new demand for political devolution, and droughts, unreliable access to energy, and on those who are most vulnerable—the elderly, those with or greater independence, and represents a bottom-up unsustainable waste management processes are disabilities and those living in dense, built environments. DSSURDFKWRUHIHUHQGDDQGFLWL]HQDVVHPEO\DVGLIIHUHQW IXQGDPHQWDOO\ FKDQJLQJ FRPPXQLWLHV· DELOLW\ WR OLYH A shift toward systems which support multi-modal, ZD\VIRUJLYLQJFLWL]HQVDGLUHFWYRLFHLQJRYHUQDQFHDWD well, enjoy secure livelihoods, and to weather external complex programming, are required, as are more time of complex change and legislative gridlock. shocks. Migration patterns, driven by rising sea levels transformational partnerships for joint problem solving, and climate change, are further compounding these and consideration of radical solutions in a changing challenges and necessitates a transformation in environment. planning and implementation of aid and support in crisis situations. REBALANCING NETWORKED POLITICAL OF POWER POLITICAL HUMANITARIANISM

A rebalancing of power and authority away from Networked humanitarianism is creating new ways for centralised government toward regional areas, breaking through the problems inherent in the current communities and individuals is producing a new top-heavy, global humanitarian system. Building a landscape of self-determination and responsibility. networked system will help shift current architectures This has created new demand for political devolution, toward more distributed governance, and support or greater independence, and represents a bottom-up WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WHFKQRORJ\ PRELOH GURQH VRFLDO DSSURDFKWRUHIHUHQGDDQGFLWL]HQDVVHPEO\DVGLIIHUHQW platforms, blockchain, open data) in updated ZD\VIRUJLYLQJFLWL]HQVDGLUHFWYRLFHLQJRYHUQDQFHDWD organisational models. A networked approach also time of complex change and legislative gridlock. increases opportunities for improving communication and resource sharing between organisations which use GHFHQWUDOLVHGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJQRGHVRILQÁXHQFH NETWORKED POLITICAL HUMANITARIANISM

Networked humanitarianism is creating new ways for breaking through the problems inherent in the current top-heavy, global humanitarian system. Building a networked system will help shift current architectures toward more distributed governance, and support WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WHFKQRORJ\ PRELOH GURQH VRFLDO platforms, blockchain, open data) in updated organisational models. A networked approach also increases opportunities for improving communication and resource sharing between organisations which use GHFHQWUDOLVHGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJQRGHVRILQÁXHQFH POPULIST RETURN OF POLITICAL SHIFT POLITICAL LOCAL POWER

A relocalisation of power has occured in the past decade, The growth and strengthening of populist political as a desire for self-determination has re-emerged across movements on both ends of the traditional political the country. For example, cities have stepped forward spectrum has brought with it a polarisation of priorities, as important centres of power as national government and created greater gaps in national and local consensus has been comsumed with larger challenges. Regional building. This polarisation continues to harden, and “powerhouse” initiatives have pushed some power leaves centrists increasingly disconnected from political to regional capitals, and mayors and councils have discourse. Populist shifts and rising negativity do provide emerged as more powerful, independent players on a lever for organisations and community groups to the broader political and economic landscape of the embrace civic action, promote positive humanitarian UK. Rural areas are also demanding greater resourcing values, and inspire radical hope. and autonomy, though face the challenge of competing economically with other entities. RETURN OF AGING POLITICAL LOCAL POWER SOCIAL POPULATIONS

A relocalisation of power has occured in the past decade, 2YHUWKHQH[WIHZGHFDGHV%ULWDLQ·VDJLQJSRSXODWLRQ as a desire for self-determination has re-emerged across will have deep impacts on planning and response to the country. For example, cities have stepped forward emergencies. Between 2015 and 2020, the number of as important centres of power as national government over 65s is expected to increase at four times the rate has been comsumed with larger challenges. Regional of general population growth, over 80s increasing by “powerhouse” initiatives have pushed some power six times, and centenarians by ten times the overall to regional capitals, and mayors and councils have population rate. With slowing birth rates and expected emerged as more powerful, independent players on additional restrictions on immigration, social funding the broader political and economic landscape of the and available labour will fall short of the requirements UK. Rural areas are also demanding greater resourcing necessary to support these demographic groups. This and autonomy, though face the challenge of competing will necessitate a rethink of the roles and relationships economically with other entities. among all age groups for supporting each other. RETURN OF AGING CHANGING POLITICAL LOCAL POWER SOCIAL POPULATIONS SOCIAL BALANCE OF FAITH

A relocalisation of power has occured in the past decade, 2YHUWKHQH[WIHZGHFDGHV%ULWDLQ·VDJLQJSRSXODWLRQ Faith-based organisations may become more central as a desire for self-determination has re-emerged across will have deep impacts on planning and response to to community connection in coming years, through the country. For example, cities have stepped forward emergencies. Between 2015 and 2020, the number of DQ H[SHFWDWLRQ WKDW WKH\ ZLOO ÀOO WKH SRVWDXVWHULW\ as important centres of power as national government over 65s is expected to increase at four times the rate gaps created by failures within region-based, or non- has been comsumed with larger challenges. Regional of general population growth, over 80s increasing by religious organisations. Participation in faith-based “powerhouse” initiatives have pushed some power six times, and centenarians by ten times the overall groups remains a strong cultural anchor among many to regional capitals, and mayors and councils have population rate. With slowing birth rates and expected immigrant cultures, and declining numbers within the emerged as more powerful, independent players on additional restrictions on immigration, social funding general population appear to have plateaued. the broader political and economic landscape of the and available labour will fall short of the requirements UK. Rural areas are also demanding greater resourcing necessary to support these demographic groups. This and autonomy, though face the challenge of competing will necessitate a rethink of the roles and relationships economically with other entities. among all age groups for supporting each other. AGING CHANGING DIY SOCIAL POPULATIONS SOCIAL BALANCE OF FAITH SOCIAL CULTURE

2YHUWKHQH[WIHZGHFDGHV%ULWDLQ·VDJLQJSRSXODWLRQ Faith-based organisations may become more central Internet, video and mobile device penetration have put will have deep impacts on planning and response to to community connection in coming years, through HGXFDWLRQLQIRUPDWLRQDQGLQVWUXFWLRQDWWKHÀQJHUWLSV emergencies. Between 2015 and 2020, the number of DQ H[SHFWDWLRQ WKDW WKH\ ZLOO ÀOO WKH SRVWDXVWHULW\ of everyone. Even people in remote areas can now access over 65s is expected to increase at four times the rate gaps created by failures within region-based, or non- information and guidance for creating or replicating of general population growth, over 80s increasing by religious organisations. Participation in faith-based tools, processes, and plans developed or implemented six times, and centenarians by ten times the overall groups remains a strong cultural anchor among many by others on the network. These systems provide population rate. With slowing birth rates and expected immigrant cultures, and declining numbers within the greater access to open sharing culture and promote additional restrictions on immigration, social funding general population appear to have plateaued. decentralisation of information. This provides new and available labour will fall short of the requirements opportunities for community organisations to enhance necessary to support these demographic groups. This their reach by sharing information and resources more will necessitate a rethink of the roles and relationships easily and with greater impact. among all age groups for supporting each other. DIY ENHANCED SOCIAL CULTURE SOCIAL ACTIVISM

Internet, video and mobile device penetration have put Volunteerism and activism are resurgent. Networks, free HGXFDWLRQLQIRUPDWLRQDQGLQVWUXFWLRQDWWKHÀQJHUWLSV platforms, and the ability to organise, activate and fund of everyone. Even people in remote areas can now access communities of interest are leading to higher levels of information and guidance for creating or replicating civic engagement in many countries, and transnationally. tools, processes, and plans developed or implemented Movements—not institutions—are driving change, and by others on the network. These systems provide organisations and NGOs have better opportunities to greater access to open sharing culture and promote engage with activists in joint social good initiatives. decentralisation of information. This provides new opportunities for community organisations to enhance their reach by sharing information and resources more easily and with greater impact. ENHANCED SOCIAL ACTIVISM

Volunteerism and activism are resurgent. Networks, free platforms, and the ability to organise, activate and fund communities of interest are leading to higher levels of civic engagement in many countries, and transnationally. Movements—not institutions—are driving change, and organisations and NGOs have better opportunities to engage with activists in joint social good initiatives. NEW FACES OF REFOCUS ON SOCIAL CHANGE SOCIAL COMMUNITY

Women, minorities and historically-excluded Economic and social stresses of the past decade have Around the world, as governments and aid organisations communities are gaining greater leadership prominence, driven many communities to reconnect, re-develop, or have become stretched, a range of new, semi-formal rising through both formal and informal channels. Major create new local resources, and to focus on community HQWLWLHV KDYH HPHUJHG WR ÀOO JDSV LQ UHVSRQVH 7HDP parties in Scotland, Wales and England have elected powers of support and supply. This has put a spotlight Rubicon, a semi-professional service organisation women leaders, including those who identify as BAME, RQVXFFHVVIXOPRGHOVDVZHOODVKLJKOLJKWLQJGHÀFLWVLQ organised by ex-military members, is one example. RU /*%74, &RPPXQLW\ JURXSV WKDW DLP WR EH ÀW IRU social infrastructure, which has sparked examination Others include voluntary regional organisations, faith- the future must ensure greater diversity and inclusion of issues around public spaces, access to services, based groups, and ad hoc teams which organise at all levels, and re-imagine the leadership skills and and other inadequacies of community governance or localised self-monitoring and resource management, as qualities required for successful and effective 21st century authority. well as providing training and assistance for volunteer organisations. community workers. SEMI-FORMAL SOCIAL RESPONDERS

Around the world, as governments and aid organisations have become stretched, a range of new, semi-formal HQWLWLHV KDYH HPHUJHG WR ÀOO JDSV LQ UHVSRQVH 7HDP Rubicon, a semi-professional service organisation organised by ex-military members, is one example. Others include voluntary regional organisations, faith- based groups, and ad hoc teams which organise localised self-monitoring and resource management, as well as providing training and assistance for volunteer community workers. HEALTH/CARE ECONOMIC RECONSIDERED

Changes in funding and structural approaches at the NHS and other major care providers have opened the door to social sector organisations taking a larger role in providing care and social support within communities. At the same time, technology and economics are pushing the burden of care onto the individual, from self-monitoring and distance medicine to use of retail and social channels for basic care. Likewise, a wider GHÀQLWLRQRI¶KHDOWK·DQG¶FDUH·WRHQFRPSDVVEURDGHU wellness, mindfulness and mental wellbeing has opened the scope of resources providing care.

URBANISATION VOLUNTEERISM SOCIAL SOCIAL RESHAPED

)DVW JURZWK RI PDQ\ RI WKH 8.·V XUEDQ FHQWUHV LV Rates of traditional volunteering are reducing. In 2018, creating population pressure within these densifying RQO\SHUFHQWRIWKHJOREDOYROXQWHHUZRUNIRUFH RI environments, as well as draining ex-urban and rural million) participated through formal channels. However, areas of population, and therefore labour, community, recent data suggest a surge among younger Britons, as and economic resources. These shifts are creating more people contribute their time informally, through pressure and tension points on formal employment grassroots movements, or other avenues for lending opportunities, housing, and social services for both. WLPHDQGHQHUJ\WRFDXVHVRILQWHUHVW7KLVUHGHÀQLWLRQ Vulnerable populations in urban environments are also of volunteerism has opened up wider opportunities for at greater threat from the effects of increasing heat public participation, provision of skills beyond basic waves in built environments. RXWUHDFKRUVHUYLFHODERXUDQGQHZDYHQXHVIRUIXOÀOOLQJ civic participation. HEALTH/CARE LIFE AFTER ECONOMIC ECONOMIC RECONSIDERED BREXIT Changes in funding and structural approaches at the The impacts of Brexit will reverberate for the next decade NHS and other major care providers have opened the whether it ultimately results in a managed withdrawal, a door to social sector organisations taking a larger role in no-deal withdrawal, or no withdrawal at all. No matter providing care and social support within communities. how it plays out, areas which form the industrial base of At the same time, technology and economics are the UK are expected to face relocations, loss of population pushing the burden of care onto the individual, from and skilled workers, lost economic opportunity, and self-monitoring and distance medicine to use of retail political vacuums, both internally and externally. Local and social channels for basic care. Likewise, a wider RUJDQLVDWLRQVDUHOLNHO\WRH[SHULHQFHVLJQLÀFDQWEXGJHW GHÀQLWLRQRI¶KHDOWK·DQG¶FDUH·WRHQFRPSDVVEURDGHU and resource cuts as well. However, this provides wellness, mindfulness and mental wellbeing has opened opportunities for organisations to begin considering the scope of resources providing care. alternative sources of capital, beyond government funding. In future, crowdfunding, philanthropy, and impact investments are likely to play a greater role in RQJRLQJÀQDQFLDOVWDELOLW\

URBANISATION VOLUNTEERISM SOCIAL SOCIAL RESHAPED

4TH INDUSTRIAL DECENTRALISED TECH REVOLUTION IN TECH NETWORKS

THE STREETS Decentralised models—from mesh networks, to blockchain, to cellular organisational patterns using Industrial technologies, such as the Internet of Things, open source tools—have become more resilient options robotics, machine learning, and other elements of the for organising and connecting. The opportunities to so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution are now easily engage with civic actors virtually through networked accessible to individuals. As access to these simple, but SODWIRUPV VXFKDVDFWLYLVWQHWZRUN(GJHU\GHUV0LVVLQJ effective tools for observation or inspection increases Maps, Digital Humanitarians) provides access to a far and becomes cheaper and more available to the public, greater amount of intellectual capital and resources FRPPXQLWLHVDUHEHQHÀWWLQJ:LWKEURDGHUDYDLODELOLW\RI than civil society organisations have traditionally had basic technical skills, individuals and local entities have access to. These models also provide greater resilience a better ability to develop and maintain these tools and in instances of disruption of any one resource or the systems and services they enable. organisation. PLATFORM POST-AUSTERITY ECONOMIC CITIZENSHIP ECONOMIC ECONOMICS

In the UK, and internationally, private information The long tail of post-recession austerity has led to a services—media, retail, transportation, and security—are restructuring of many public services, but has also displacing public ones. Facebook claims forty million spurred a generational rethink around economic XVHUVLQWKH8.DQGÀYHPLOOLRQVXEVFULEHWR$PD]RQ models and social contracts. Reconsideration of large 3ULPH ,QFUHDVLQJO\ FLWL]HQV LGHQWLI\ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU scale public investment now sits alongside proposals WKHVHSODWIRUPVHUYLFHVRYHUSXEOLFVHUYLFHVROXWLRQV,W·V for new relationships between public and private, and possible that more platforms, such as Airbnb, WeWork, includes the re-emergence of older social models like Uber, or Deliveroo will move to become civic service cooperatives, and new ones, like universal basic income, providers in the future. Platform provision of key social and post-capitalist theories of economics based on services suggest great possibilities for providing greater sustainability and balance. focus on linking hyperlocal and global communities, EXW DOVR FRPSOLFDWHV PDWWHUV LI SULYDWH SURÀWPDNLQJ enterprises take on social sector services but are not held to the same rules and regulations.

4TH INDUSTRIAL DECENTRALISED OPEN TECH REVOLUTION IN TECH NETWORKS TECH DATA

THE STREETS Decentralised models—from mesh networks, to The decade-old open data movement is providing blockchain, to cellular organisational patterns using access to vital geographic, demographic, and technical Industrial technologies, such as the Internet of Things, open source tools—have become more resilient options LQIRUPDWLRQ DW ORZ RU QR FRVW IRU FLWL]HQ SRSXODWLRQV robotics, machine learning, and other elements of the for organising and connecting. The opportunities to and non-expert groups. Useful tools for planning, so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution are now easily engage with civic actors virtually through networked tracking and response to emerging threats and needs— accessible to individuals. As access to these simple, but SODWIRUPV VXFKDVDFWLYLVWQHWZRUN(GJHU\GHUV0LVVLQJ including open mapping, environmental and health effective tools for observation or inspection increases Maps, Digital Humanitarians) provides access to a far information—are ascendant. Open data and crowd and becomes cheaper and more available to the public, greater amount of intellectual capital and resources sourced intelligence can provide an ability to ensure FRPPXQLWLHVDUHEHQHÀWWLQJ:LWKEURDGHUDYDLODELOLW\RI than civil society organisations have traditionally had participatory action in much more agile and inclusive basic technical skills, individuals and local entities have access to. These models also provide greater resilience ways. a better ability to develop and maintain these tools and in instances of disruption of any one resource or the systems and services they enable. organisation. POST-AUSTERITY REIMAGINING ECONOMIC ECONOMICS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT &

OPEN TECH DATA

The decade-old open data movement is providing access to vital geographic, demographic, and technical LQIRUPDWLRQ DW ORZ RU QR FRVW IRU FLWL]HQ SRSXODWLRQV and non-expert groups. Useful tools for planning, tracking and response to emerging threats and needs— including open mapping, environmental and health information—are ascendant. Open data and crowd sourced intelligence can provide an ability to ensure participatory action in much more agile and inclusive ways. REIMAGINING SHARING & PEER ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & ECONOMIC ECONOMIES PROGRESS New business models and reinvigorated modes of collaboration enable individuals and organisations to There is an increasing push for measures of progress develop stronger peer-to-peer transactional systems, and development to move away from mere economic IURP SURÀWPDNLQJ EXVLQHVVHV WR UHVRXUFH DQG DVVHW LQGLFDWRUV WR LQFOXGH FLWL]HQ ZHOOEHLQJ 3UHVHQWGD\ sharing. The circular economy is projected to add $1 examples include the commissioner for future generations WULOOLRQSHUDQQXPWRWKHZRUOG·VHFRQRP\EXWEH\RQG LQ:DOHVDQG1HZ=HDODQG·V:HOOEHLQJ%XGJHW6LPLODU hard economic terms, sharing models have opened up proposals for new measurements of national or local opportunities for sharing of labour and resources, such health and success are expected. This indicates is a as through timebanking and community currencies, greater push toward identifying indicators of societal creation of community assets, like shared kitchens, and progress which incorporate human and planetary well networks and platforms for facilitating open access. being and new measures of resilience.

FAILING TRUST IN MOVING BEYOND VALUES INSTITUTIONS VALUES POVERTY PORN

Trust in public institutions, government, business and the 6RPH FKDULWLHV DUH XQGHU ÀUH IRU WKHLU SRUWUD\DOV RI media have been diminishing for most of the last decade poverty and social vulnerability, particularly among weakening the value of authority and information from minority groups in the UK. Charities which push these groups. Scandals at several major international VWHUHRW\SHVRIWKHLUEHQHÀFLDULHVDUHEHLQJFKDOOHQJHG aid, and faith-based organisations have also dented for their protrayals. This has had a direct impact on public the public trust and undercut funding from public and fundraising efforts, and compelled a re-think of how aid private sources. Damaged trust has triggered new organisations solicit funding, and how the support they efforts around transparency and governance, which provide is represented or validated. As a result, some civil has also opened the door for new entities which proffer society organisations and those working in social good localised efforts for rebuilding community trust. This are reconsidering their communications campaigns drives wider transparency, and encourages ethical to ensure more equitable advocacy and respectful approaches toward policy-making and work practices depiction of a wide array of vulnerable populations and within organisational cultures. communities. SHARING & PEER CLIMATE-DRIVEN ECONOMIC ENVIRON- ECONOMIES MENTAL DISRUPTION

New business models and reinvigorated modes of Food and water security for communities looms as a collaboration enable individuals and organisations to growing problem and is anticipated to drive future develop stronger peer-to-peer transactional systems, FRQÁLFWV &RPPRGLÀFDWLRQ RI QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV HJ IURP SURÀWPDNLQJ EXVLQHVVHV WR UHVRXUFH DQG DVVHW priced access to clean water and land), agricultural sharing. The circular economy is projected to add $1 productivity stressed by unpredictable rainfall patterns WULOOLRQSHUDQQXPWRWKHZRUOG·VHFRQRP\EXWEH\RQG and droughts, unreliable access to energy, and hard economic terms, sharing models have opened up unsustainable waste management processes are opportunities for sharing of labour and resources, such IXQGDPHQWDOO\ FKDQJLQJ FRPPXQLWLHV· DELOLW\ WR OLYH as through timebanking and community currencies, well, enjoy secure livelihoods, and to weather external creation of community assets, like shared kitchens, and shocks. Migration patterns, driven by rising sea levels networks and platforms for facilitating open access. and climate change, are further compounding these challenges and necessitates a transformation in planning and implementation of aid and support in crisis situations.

FAILING TRUST IN MOVING BEYOND VALUES INSTITUTIONS VALUES POVERTY PORN