Empowered Futures for the2030Agenda Foresight Manual 1 © 2018 UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence #08-01, Block A, 29 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, 119620 Singapore

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UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence Singapore, January 2018 Foresight 4 A Manual

Table of Contents Innovation 4. 3. Resilient Policy Planning Strategic Management 2. AnticipatoryGovernance and 1. B. Empowered Futures for the SDGs → 10 A. Introduction → 7 Foresight, insight,action Organizing for foresight 15 The Three P’s ofForesight 13 C. DoingForesight Well → 13 The Empowered Futures Initiative Popper’s Foresight Diamond Futures Thinking Future? 21 Foresight: “From” or“Into” the Foresight for Policy 19 Framework 17 Generic Foresight Process D. Different foresight frameworks → 17 Alignment ofDevelopment Visions 10 Policy and PublicServices

12 24 11 15 11 25 12 Main Literature → 48 future 46 Future artefacts/Advice from the Futures-creative /ISM44 Horizon Mission 3 Horizons Conference model41 Liberating structures 40 Appreciative Inquiry40 Foresight, Dialogue, andInnovation 39 Branching scenarios Generic Images37 2x2 Matrix /GBN 36 Day inlife 36 Future Headlines /Cover page/ Backcasting Visioning/ Incasting Relating ScenariosandStrategies Using Scenarios 31 scanning Methods and technique related to Applying horizonscanning Key conceptsinscanning Horizon scanningandTrends 26 E. Foresight methods andapproaches → 26 30 41 34 44 39 35 27 28 33 action onclimatechange natural resources andtakingurgent production, sustainablymanagingits through sustainableconsumptionand protected “ will beeradicatedandtheplanet will beshared fairly by all.Poverty human progress andeconomicgrowth of fundamentalchange.Thespoils Sustainable Development Goalsspeak indeed. Intensely ambitious,the17 Development promises abrightfuture of the2030Agendafor Sustainable rehearsals for thefuture, thevision remarked, dreams are dress If, asDickens’ David Copperfield Res/70/1 on25September2015, A/ Assembly 1. Resolution adoptedby theGeneral Technological innovation suchas economic growth andsecurity. a few) food security, migration, and prioritizationof(to namejust radically disruptourconception Age, inwhich climatechangewill will looklike intheAnthropocene blueprints for how development ones. Thepastonly provides limited many ways, incomparabletoprevious World We Will Get. in TheWorld We Have, butinThe World We Want willberealized, not radically newfuture realities. The trade, financeandpeople are creating increasing flows andnetworks of like technologicalinnovation, ever disruptive forces ofthe21stcentury, at neckbreaking speed.Thegreat the world isalready transforming

The world inthe21stcenturyis, Regardless ofourdreams, however, 5 from degradation, including ”. 1 → Foreword strategic foresight for visioning, to strengthen local capacities toapply Empowered Futures in developing countries.This and circumstances ofgovernment that fitstheparticularcontext and scaledupaforesight approach coherence. management and,crucially, policy strategic decision-making, strategic parts ofgovernment responsible for Foresight isacriticalcapacityofthose compatible withtheunfolding future. implementing strategicplans thatare thinking about,talkingand public planners tousenewways of and minimizingrisks. leveraging emergingopportunities shape andrealize theirown future, require innovative toolstoideate, ‘used’ futures from thepast.They are therefore poorly served by the concrete results for theircitizens the ambitious2030Agendainto the volatile reality ofthe21stcentury. 2030 Agenda,willactually meanin ‘development’, asenvisioned by the equal needtoradically reframe what on. It isfairtosay thatthere isan like in2030.Thelistgoesonand even ‘strong institutions’willlook ‘decent work, ‘quality education’ and us tofundamentally rethink what Artificial Intelligence,will force robotics, theInternetofEverything, GCPSE hasdeveloped, tested Foresight issuchatool.It enables Governments lookingtoturn framework aims developing countries. encourage truly empowered futures in foresight techniques currently available. a review of the mostwidely used use foresight. TheManual ends with as well astipsonhow toeffectively at different levels ofthepolicycycle, where andhow toemploy foresight countries. It gives concrete suggestions of foresight capacityin developing context, emphasizing theimportance puts foresight firmly in adevelopment SDGs implementation. TheManual overview oftheuseforesight for Agenda Empowered Futures for the2030 SDGs intheseplans. mainstreaming andaccelerationof national development plans, andthe are centered ontheformulation of in on-goingpolicycycles which and promotes theuseofforesight and resources indeveloping countries public servicestructures, processes innovation. It buildsonexisting strategic coordination, planning and Director, UNDPGlobalCentreforPublicService Excellence Max Everest-Phillips I hopethatthisManual will The Foresight Manual – provides acrispand concise Foresight 6 A Manual 7 accepted as agiven or ‘good practice’. unearth orreplicate, andpassively in thepastby others, there only to already beendecided or enacted even created, rather thanwhat has and canbeactively influenced or the future isstillinthemaking The premise offoresight is that → decisions andmobilizingjointaction.” process aimedatenablingpresent-day medium-to-long-term vision-building future-intelligence- gatheringand defined as alternative futures or forecast the design methodsthatdon’t predict policy formulation andsolution those innovative strategicplanning, of theirdesired futures inthe21 construct development narratives Foresight allows governments to This isan empowering realisation. compatible withtheunfolding future . implementing strategicplans thatare of thinkingabout,talkingand and policyplanners tousenewways Foresight empowers decisionmakers Springer Switzerland 2016,p.12 Springer Switzerland Science, Technology andInnovation, Solokov, Alexander, Foresight for 1. Miles,Ian, Saritas, Ozcan and A. Introduction citizens to participate in discussions citizens toparticipate indiscussions local) technical experts and invites exclusively relying on (foreign or foresight breaks withthehabitof growth and socialjustice.Participatory more and betterchoicesfor inclusive and present decision-makers with frame future policyenvironments public serviceorganisations tobetter highly developed countries. It enables ‘used’, ‘second-hand’ futures from century, instead ofrelying onthe Foresight istheumbrella termfor “a systematic,participatory, future, butwork with . Foresight hasbeen st

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there isamultitudeof possible futures.” does notactually exist.Instead, whatisout future thatthetrend modellingproposes future. thesingle,predictable, But fixed from thepast toextrapolate modelsof the accumulating andinterpreting patterns scientific era, triedto predict thefuture by and dystopias; and,inthemodern future philosophically; wrote utopias debatedconcepts of timeand astrology; from oracles; read thestarsthrough the future. Ourforebears soughtadvice predict, control, manage,andunderstand thousands of yearswehavestruggled to Very Short Introduction wroteFor “ and decisionsconcerning their future. Kindle Edition. (p. Introductions) 2).OUPOxford. Short (Very Introduction Short Very 2. Gidley, Jennifer A Future: M.The rehearsal ofpotential responses. opportunities, andthe systematic the identification offuture risksand possible scenariosand pathways, loops. It entails theexploration of data and thecreation oftightfeedback combine open,real-time and emerging an abilitytosort,siftthrough and pro-active scanning ofthehorizon; probable andpreferable futures; a situational awareness topossible, It isbasedupon arange ofskills: for long-term and deepuncertainties. thinking, windtunnelling, and planning analysis and synthesis, systems crucial skillssuchascross impact in thebox below. Foresight cultivates Some ofitsassumptions are captured prophecies, predictions orforecasts. without resorting towishfulthinking, and intelligence toshapethisfuture, and theneed for data,information and unpredictability ofthefuture between theunsettling uncertainty Jennifer Gidley, inherTheFuture: A Foresight triestosteeracourse 2 Foresight 8 A Manual The worst thingistolive someone else’s past thinkingitisyour future. 10. happen –sowe always need plan B(and Cand D, etc.). For every future thatwillhappen there are hundreds ofexpectedfutures thatwillnot 9. the hype. reshape thefuture startedasbarely noticeable,“weak signals”ofchange.Sodon’t believe Historically, mosttrends died outrelatively quickly, while mostimportantevents thatdid 8. there willalways beanother ten years into thefuture. The future isaprocess, not adestination –you cannot “reach” thefuture or“arrive” there: 7. patterns. The future belongstothecurious–thosewho seebeyond existingsystems andthinking 6. determine theirfuture implications. Technology isnotthefuture –how we useexisting(and develop new) technologieswill 5. beliefs, values, mindsets,andbehaviour toavoid beingtrappedin “businessasusual”. exactly becausetheywere “notexpected”–therefore, foresight shouldchallengeexisting Very often,usefulideasand“images”of thefuture tendtoseem ridiculousinthepresent 4. group perspectives, framesofreferences, and“images”. we shouldbethinking aboutfutures intermsofdifferent (often conflicting) personal and There are no factsorevidence from thefuture (we create thefuture aswe experience it) – 3. are lessso.Normative (preferable) futures are thosethatstakeholders aspire tocreate. in thebroader scopeofallpossiblefutures, someare more probable orplausible, some The future shouldbe“pluralized” –there isnotone,butmultiple alternative futures –so, 2. not justbelookingattherear-mirror when driving forward. tends tobeextrapolation ofcurrent trends, which isbasedonpastdata–sowe should The future cannot befully predicted -mostthings we think we know aboutthefuture 1. 10 thingswe needtoknow thefuture/s about Countries Long-Term PlanningTool for Developing publication, foresight, seetheUNDP GPCSE’s For amore in-depthintroduction to foresight for development process. to formulate andshapeasuccessful enable governments andorganisations with thepreceding chapters,will presented, however, incombination more. Themethodsselectedand internet search would throw upmany complete or comprehensive; aquick This overview doesnotclaimtobe methods thatare currently inuse. overview ofsometheforesight The fourth chapter, lastly, gives an many foresight methodsavailable. events andgives afirst glimpseofthe frameworks toconceptualizeforesight third chapterprovides some popular initiating aforesight process. The pointers andcaveats for those Chapter two gives somepractical Agenda for SustainableDevelopment applications offoresight for the first chapterdescribes four specific planning andinnovation efforts. The foresight methods totheirpolicy, organisations interested inapplying countries andfor development and policymakers indeveloping This Manual isintendedfor decision html public-service-excellence/Foresight. capacity-building/global-centre-for- content/undp/en/home/librarypage/ 3. Available at: http://www.undp.org/ 9 3 Foresight asaStrategic 2030 .

PELS Ted Eytan

OnInnovation Michelle Andonian Foresight 10 A Manual capacity constraints. countries are facingstubborn the developed anddeveloping Public administrations inboth all citizens.Thatisnotagiven. turn words intangible results for public service organisations to ability of national and sub-national Development willdependonthe 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Much ofthesuccess → 3. 2. 1. additional challenges, inparticular: by theslogan ‘TheWorld We Want’. of thevisioning process was captured degradation. and theplanet protected from be eradicated,governance beimproved be more fairly shared by all,poverty human progress andeconomic growth 2030. It proposes thatthespoilsof on how theworld couldlooklike in SDGs encapsulate theglobalvision Development Goals(SDGs). The17 also known astheSustainable Agenda for SustainableDevelopment, Transforming ourworld:the2030 Development Summit adopted visioning event. TheUNSustainable gathered in New York for aunique In September2015,world leaders for theSDGs Empowered Futures B. The reality ofthe21 citizen involvement. citizens andthe demandfor more relationship The changing to beresilient andadaptive, and; environment andtherequirement of thepolicyimplementation The volatility integrated policyresults; issues andtheneedtoproduce The complexity ofdevelopment The empowering nature between state and nature ofthe and st uncertainty century presents century presents indicators) capture the The SDGs(goals,targetsand Development Visions 1. Alignmentof in furthertext. SDGs implementation are presented to thework ofpublicbureaucracies in can make animportantcontribution planning and policytools. an essentialaddition toconventional bureaucratic structures, isemerging as with itsproven track record andfitin are profound challenges. ‘Foresight’, for meaningful citizen engagement Complexity, uncertainty and ademand outputs are basedon theseprinciples. of itsstructures, procedures and predictability and hierarchy. Many public administration are rationality, The core characteristicsofclassical volatile reality ofthe21stcentury. of SDGsimplementation inthe adapt todealwiththechallenges and ‘space’ toexperiment, learn and Governments need practicaltools the there willbeaneedtoreconcile development visionalready exists, In thecaseswhere suchanational ‘local’ targetsandpriorities specified. development visionformulated, and; agreed upon;anaspirationalnational actor ondevelopment aspirations is a broad consensusamongnational global development vision,inwhich process of‘nationalizing’the alignment’ requires anadditional and interests amongstates development aspirations, priorities common ground between different on development in2030,anegotiated might also provide an impetusto introduction ofthe2030Agenda planning actioncanbetaken. The The four majorareas where foresight visions before any meaningful global . ‘SDG vision citizens demand. development visioning requires and for thekindof engagementthat mechanisms, processes andmethods Many bureaucracies, however, lack • • • vision building. important role inthekey processes of development strategies. update orimprove existingnational document thatcannot beignored. with eachother andtoproduce a different ‘voices’ andperspectivesto have ameaningfulconversation a platform andastructure for future. These methodsprovide deliberations aboutthepreferred have realistic butaspirational a richrepertoire ofmethodsto consensus). Foresight provides (if theydiverge from theexpert incorporating recommendations reasons), orpoorin termsof (either for ideologicalorpractical restrictive intermsofparticipation of active engagement (once-off), processes can belimitedinterms The bureaucratic consultative Public serviceorganisationsplay an

facilitate key stakeholders. can rapidly identify, mobilize and that deeply penetrate societyand organisational power withstructures Civil servicescombine robust concerns andneeds. to information oncitizens’current state andcitizenshave access function as Public sectorinstitutionsalso influencing what isprioritized. deemed tobe‘feasible’ and what visionsofthefuture are technical expertise servants supply politicianswith In theirofficialcapacity, public 11 intermediaries , oftenframing between • • • • jobs’ etc.willlooklike in2030. education’, ‘economic growth and anticipate what ‘healthy lives’, ‘quality we want’. future hasinstore, beyond ‘theworld provides limitedinsightsinwhat the indicates thatthe2030Agendaonly surfaced aftertheformal adoption, such asantibioticsresistance, which exclusion of‘slow onsetshocks’ centre ofdiscussions. Butthe moved from theperiphery tothe and changingdemographics, slowly global trends, suchasurbanization Epidemic. Thedisruptive potential of the Refugee CrisisandtheEbola Financial Crisis,theArabSpring, calamitous events suchastheGlobal had todealwiththefalloutof alone, governments andcommunities Development Agendadeliberations of theworld. Duringthepost-2015 interrelated anduncertain nature and explicit aboutthecomplex, The visionoftheSDGsisaware Management and Strategic Governance 2. Anticipatory Government mustexplore and forces oftheearly 21 How willthefour disruptive depend? national food securityin2030 which market mechanisms,will On what kindofmarkets, and growth in2030,andwhich not? sectorswillproduce economic What what kindofjobsin2030? education increases thechances for typeof there bein2030?What possiblehealththreats will What people –impactall17 Goals? global flows oftrade,capital and innovation, ageingpopulation and – urbanization,technological st century fluctuating energy prices or changing fluctuating energyprices orchanging global orlocal trends (for example explore the possibleimpactofkey environment. Thesescenarios often in future policyimplementation to identify risksand opportunities countries usescenario planning Several governments in developing and unpredictability. manageable doseofuncertainty classical policy planning witha of theapproaches toinfuse Foresight isemerging asone resilient intheunfolding future. a tooltomake classicalplanning more by. SDGimplementation willrequire opportunities untiltheyhave passed policies, andinattentive topromising to detecttheincreasing irrelevance of Government agenciesare oftenslow will happenbetween 2015and 2030. changes, disruptionsandshocksthat wanting todealwiththeinevitable unambiguous change,have beenfound predictable, gradually unfolding, methods, withtheiremphasis on and uncertainty. Classicalplanning that allow for change,complexity are experimentingwithplanning tools environment. Globally, governments uncertain, complex andambiguous in anincreasingly volatile, The SDGsare beingimplemented 3. Resilient Policy Planning the future of theirnation. and regain asense of direction over helps leaders make betterdecisions circumstances. By doing so, foresight their policies underdifferent the implications andimpact of emerging trends andto evaluate to anticipate some of these Foresight enables governments other. These trends (and many others) citizens relate and interact witheach is changing theway governments and of human activityinlargeurban centres of people and ideas,theconcentration of technological innovation, the mobility policies andpublicservices.Thespeed 2030 Agendawillrequire innovative The successfulimplementation ofthe Innovation Services 4. Policy andPublic ‘sense signals’ofemerging change. imaginative useoftechnology and the widerenvironment, leverages to thedistributedknowledge inside agencies can becomemore attune businesses andacademia,government stakeholders, suchascommunities, collaborating on foresight with other range ofdifferent circumstances. By more ‘resilient’, thatis,effectivea in SDGs policieswilltherefore become to existing plans inthehere and now. opportunities andrequires adjustments it alsohighlightsthe(unexpected) more comprehensive riskassessment, only imbuesclassicalplanning witha policies ‘work’ in society. Foresight not are amajor contribution tomake most ‘resilient’ pathfor thepolicy. implementation scenarios,pickingthe (a vision oragoal)through different backwards from a‘preferred future’ in which policyplanners work in aplanning context is‘back-casting’, Another popularforesight application policy adjustments orenhancements. and produce recommendations for demographics) onimportant policies

These and otherforesight methods 12 leveraged by scalingup. is testedthrough prototyping and which thepotentialofopportunities typically concernshort-term cycles, in entry pointsfor innovation. These ways andtoidentify high-leverage reframe problems insurprisingnew futures, withthecreative aimto dirty’ exploration ofalternative innovation labs’todoa‘quick-and- entrepreneurs teamupin‘social Public officials,citizensand new field ofapplication. innovation, creating anelectrifying technological, socialandpublic coupled withanew wave of Recently, foresight has been technology andinnovation. world thatfocused only on science, looked atthoseinstitutesaround the in which theresearchers exclusively of foresight in SDGsimplementation, a recent UNCTAD report on theuse strength ofthis traditionisclearfrom necessities in theColdWar.) The (often spurred onby military next bigthing inscience ortechnology 1950s and 1960striedtoforecast the foresight in government from the innovation. Thefirst generations of opportunities for scientific and technical of theuseforesight in identifying policy andserviceinnovation. service organisations are engagingwith countries around theworld, public (public) goodsand services.Inmany and collective action create innovative space, where co-design, prototyping are generatinganew kind ofpublic There isacomparatively longhistory Initiative (EFI). established the’Empowered Futures SDG implementation, GCPSEhas method ofsupportwithafocus on areas. Now, tooffer asystemic foresight methodstoabovementioned their capacitytoproductively apply developing countries tostrengthen of requests from governments from responding toagrowing number Service Excellence (GCPSE) hasbeen UNDP GlobalCentre for Public Initiative Empowered Futures The planning andpolicyneeds. tailor foresight totheirstrategic, capacity ofgovernment toapply and around theglobetostrengthen the changing state-citizensrelationship. government, and foresight andthe for technologicalinnovation in foresight for cities,foresight government in developing countries. EFI partnerswithforesight partners It focuses on foresight for SDGs, EFI promotes theuseofforesight by EFI E F u MPOWER tur e s

Initia tiv E D e 13 initiation of change. beginning of ourresponse toor and vested interests right from the negotiating values, perspectives and by offering a platform tostart other stakeholders inthefuture reality; by openingupspacefor an uncertainandunpredictable and transformative efforts in enabling development innovation by broadening ourhorizon;by policy andplanning methods Foresight enhancesexisting → • • • • and how itcanbeusedandabused. is andisn’t, what itcanandcan’t do, must beclearaboutwhat foresight weaknesses ifnot properly addressed. in foresight, which mightturn into There are somecommon pitfalls through foresight isnot apanacea. however, thatdealing withfutures less known. It isworth remembering, government departmentsand othersare some are already practiced inmany have beenwidely tested,otherslessso; of narratives. Someforesight methods workshops and qualitative assessment collection/analysis toparticipatory term processes and quantitative data that span thegamutfrom long- There are many foresight methods Well DoingForesightC. From theoutset,all‘participants’ more ‘developmental’ andinclusive. decisions for societiestobecome more adaptableandthorny political choices for organisationstobecome alternative totoughstructural Foresight doesnotprovide an the desired future. the hard work necessarytorealise Foresight isnotanexcuse toskip traditional planning. Foresight isnotasubstitutefor all planning ills. Foresight isnotauniversal cure to from thecurrent vantage point. predominantly on feasibility, as seen data intothefuture andfocused forecasting thatextrapolates past Foresight should not become ensures an‘equal playing field’. identification ofstrategiesthat (e.g. ‘games’, ‘wildcards’, etc.),and emphasise andstimulate creativity thinking, selectionofmethodsthat non-directive illustrationsof‘futures’ preparation, includingdevelopment of foresight activitiesneedextensive producing the‘usedfuture’. Hence, stuck inthe‘old’ approach of and leave people andorganisations produce new, transformative insights, future’ and move on to ‘futures’, fail to sometimes struggletogetbeyond ‘the which theirstatusdepends. protect theirprediction monopoly on alternative views. Expertsdoggedly as hierarchy and ‘groupthink’, shutout back. Powerful socialprocesses, such repeated, are always lurking inthe is unfolding orthepastiseternally belief systems, in which agiven future familiar categories.Age-oldcultural bias todeny change and castreality in Humans have acognitive and social thinking aboutthe‘future’ rundeep. Foresight is not easy. People’s habits of As aresult, foresight exercises

Innovation Centre, NTU-Singapore Christopher Adams Foresight 14 A Manual 1. policy-related and participative: risk management, etc.)isprospective, from strategic planning, forecasting, ‘Fully-fledged foresight’ (as in distinctive Foresight P’s of Three The aspirations. their own future perspectives and of different stakeholders’ tohave and thenrecognize the legitimacy broad spaceofpossible futures future by enteringintothewhole Instead, we should “pluralize” the 2.

the capacitiesand actions required. opportunities and challenges, and implementation/innovation) realities, identifying the(strategic/ undesired and‘wild-card’) future of (possible,probably, desired, integrated andcoherent scenarios interaction, creating and appraising key factorsand drivers and their mid- tolong-term change of involves examining and forecasting unbiased manner. Foresight and, in asfarthatispossible, ‘realities’ in arigorous, systematic shocks and disruptions on future probes theimpactofchange, the pastintofuture. Foresight assumptions and‘hindsights’ from to simply projecting ‘old’ data, ‘emergency’ data), asopposed future realities (‘emerging’ and knowledge and information about with gatheringgenuine information, future-oriented. It isconcerned Prospective. Foresight isdecidedly supplied by external partieswith and timetables, asopposedtobe policy making processes, structures foresight isintegrated in existing Policy-related. Government 3. increases action (‘policy coherence ’), and (‘strategic management’)and compartmentalized lines ofresults planning , connects and integrates and mid-termapproach of policy perspective ofstrategic planning Foresight usesthelonger-term tower oroutsideranalysis’. actors, ‘ratherthan being ivory influential politicaloradministrative championed and driven by deadlines. Foresight issponsored, their own particularconcerns and non-traditional actorsinforesight from the past). The engagement of future’ (imageofthe future derived and theregurgitation ofthe‘used knowledge base avoids ‘groupthink’ future. The enlargement produce worthwhile imagesofthe use ofcollective intelligence perspectives andtheeffective of abroad rangeof depends ontheparticipation or academicsettings.Foresight being centralizedintechnocratic is thewidersystem, asopposedto relevant knowledge isdistributed and complex environments, welcomes thefactthatin uncertain Participative. Foresight acceptsand private andcivicactors) lines. and ‘vertical’ (between public, (coordination across policyareas) opportunities along ‘horizontal’ around shared concerns and be usedtofoster partnerships policy interventions. Foresight can framework for prioritisation of (and risks), thereby providing a emerging strategicopportunities strategic level, foresight identifies disruption and innovation. At the capacities todealwithuncertainty, anticipatory and adaptive cognitive ofthe to

• • • • • •

design andimplementation, etc.). collaboration, public-private co- strategic agenda,inter-ministerial will follow (for example, adoption change managementprocesses that and contributestothenecessary insights andrecommendations new championsoftheprocess, stakeholders), foresight creates (representing different groups of by carefully enlisting of theSDGs;seebelow). Lastly, in therun-uptoadoption by theWorld We Want campaign recommendations (as exemplified legitimacy ontheprocesses and of future visionsandimparts broadens thedemocraticbasis 15 Purpose for innovation To identifyopportunities forward-looking attitudes To develop future literacyand perspectives aboutthefuture dialogue by broadening existing To supportbroader participatory for suchfuture toemerge present tonurture conditions and focus onchangingthe To create preferred futures risks anddeveloping resilience create newstrategiesfor reducing To identifyalternative futures and the impactofcurrent trends To “predict” thefuture and key actors First, sharpfocus, appropriate foresight hassomeuniqueproblems. insights intoconcrete action,but struggle withtranslatingstrategic lack of follow-up Many foresight exercises suffer from a Foresight, insight,action advanced foresight methodologies. options canbecombinedfor more one for eachshouldbemade, butthe ambitious foresight thechoiceof ones are presented below –for less foresight activities.Themostcommon methodological approach ofour identify thepurpose,format, and At thevery start,we needto for foresight Organizing • • • • • • Format development programmes as anadditiontocapacity Future literacytraining Using on-line foresight platforms to develop shared understanding partnership development process part ofabroader consultative and Convening foresight dialogueasa design, oraninnovation initiative support programme orproject One orseveral events thatwill regular function and process so thatforesight becomesa planning and policydevelopment and practicesofstrategic process intoexistingmethodologies Systemically integratingforesight and/or resource allocation provide inputtoplanning, policy, One orseveral events thatwill . Most planning events • • • • • • innovative, isby itself of aplanning event, traditionalor insights. Themere organisation participants generatehighquality methods andcarefully selected on toactionplanning tooquickly. temptation to cutcornersandmove Foresight events shouldavoid the of thequalityinsights. of actionplanning sessions,regardless planning events insistontheinclusion There are noshortcuts.Many be derived from highqualityinsights. cognitive andbehavioural biases. and by askingpeople toaddress their explicitly exploring alternative futures for qualityinsightseven higher, by above, foresight is raisingthebar for qualityinsights.Asdescribed Second, Methodology support self-organization vs. provide guidanceand Develop structured methodology innovation, dialogue) methods (planning, policy, it withothercollaborative Focus only foresight vs. integrate vs. internalones Use externalfacilitators expertise vs. develop internalone Procure externalforesight a broad scopeofstakeholders specialized professionals vs. engage Organize asmallgroup of combine several Use onemethodvs. goodactionplans canonly no guarantee Foresight 16 A Manual strategies etc.) deliverables, long-term evaluation work plans withstrictly sequenced from foresight (e.g. budgetcycles, implementation ofactionplans derived adaptability andflexibility required for procedures donot allow for thekind of Many bureaucratic structures and short, non-traditional feedback loops. with setsofalternative policies,and of alternative futures, agilestrategies Strategic foresight produces scenarios of translating foresight into strategy. foresight activities,especially interms capacity toactupon theresults of foresight outputs. distinguishes great from mediocre “early closure” onsolutions,that as longpossibleinorder toprevent ambiguous, “fluid”stateofinquiry for It thecapacitytoremain inthe organisations usually lack the Third, organisations usually lackthe as changingtheexisting culture. methodologies andpractices, as well foresight into theexisting planning This requires integrating strategic insights intoaction. in adeliberateattempttotranslate teams atindividuallineministries, approach and establishedforesight have moved towards adistributed mature strategic foresight structures give policyrecommendations. More reports onemergingtrends and churn outmeticulously researched minister orpresident offices, which or even instrategyunitsatprime conventional planning divisions have dedicatedforesight teamsin structures. Many governments conventional strategicplanning the strategicforesight to“upgrade” A widespread approach istouse 17 → different methodscanbegrouped. and 6pillars), and away inwhich (key questions,theFutures Triangle, what “future thinking”represents provides additionalclarificationson and interactive). Finally, thispart foresight (inactive, reactive, proactive, to different mindsetstochangein into thepresent. Thisalsorelates “from” preferable future andbackcast but sometimeswe needtostart “into” thefuture from thepresent, apply a“forward” foresight by looking the basicsof“future literacy”. We may “future present”. to consider thepolicydesign from the policy purposes,we mightalsoneed FORLEARN framework isbetter. For into theoverall policyprocess then the However, when foresight isintegrated Process Framework ismostsuitable. a strategicplan, theGeneric Foresight outcome offoresight isastrategyor Sometimes, inparticularwhen the indicate different purposesof foresight. core foresight logicand orientation. section), buttheyalsooughttohave a methods (as presented in thenext should always combine different methodologies. Such methodologies a specific designof foresight frameworks thatwe startdeveloping implemented. It isby using such can beunderstood, approached, and different ways in which foresight are not specific methodologies,but methodological frameworks. These overview ofthediversity offoresight This partoftheManual provides an frameworks foresight D. Different It isalsoimportanttounderstand The frameworks presented here out tobemere forecasting. It assumes analysis oftrends, and itmay oftenturn foresight. It isthe basedonly on the also themostcommon:“shallow” elements ofthisgeneric modelmissing. implemented only partially – withmany Very often, foresight isdesigned or • different (but interdependent)phases This framework recognizes 4very foresight isandwhatitmadeof. can simply beusedtounderstandwhat existing foresight initiatives.However, it be applied asadiagnostictooltoevaluate foresight methodologies,butitcan also framework isusedtodesigncustomized Foresight inPractice AHow-to-GuideStrategy: for Using Maree Conway in “Foresight-Infused Australia. It isfurtherelaboratedby Voros (2000) and hiscolleaguesfrom foresight. It was developed by Joseph comprehensive approaches tostrategic Framework represents oneofthemost The Generic Foresight Process Framework Generic Foresight Process on theright): questions for methodologicaldesign presented below (with key guiding and elements), themodellooks as complete (includingallphases When • • • → The most incomplete approach is The mostincomplete approach is Strategy Strategic options) Perspectives/Perceptions, or Outputs Prospection) ` Foresight Input See graph 1(page16) (Strategic Intelligence) (and/or Strategic Planning) (Expanded/New (Analysis, Interpretation, ” (2016). This ” (2016).This Graph 3 Graph 2 Graph 1 Foresight 18 A Manual argued thatthere isa“bottle-neck” in policy making. Amongstother, itis might beused more effectively for Costa, etall,2008)onhow foresight proposed recommendations (Da The EUproject –FORLEARN – Foresight for Policy does not provide actionable follow-up. be agoodapproach for learning,but exercise inimagination. Thismight no practicalpurposeandremains an strategy oractionatall-itserves foresight isnotconnectedtopolicy, Unfortunately, itisoftenthecasethat drivers” and“root-causes”. down tothelevel of“deep system comprehensive Interpretation - systems thinkingmethodsfor This requires theuseof happening”. the question of“what’s really incorporates allphases, including to foresight istheonethat The only complete approach being addressed properly. without core assumptions and beliefs lead toafalsesenseofunderstanding it isactually riskierbecauseitmight effective than the “shallow” approach, itmightbesometimesmore While not engagein deepinterpretation. prospection (scenarios), butstilldoes the The second incomplete approach is → → about collecting and “reading” trends. that understanding thefuture isonly 19 “narrow” foresight. It includes See graph 3(page16) See graph 2(page16) proposed: functions offoresight inpolicyare in policymakingmore effectively, 6 In termsofhow foresight canbeused foresight, asrepresented below: the process ofadvisingpolicy from society inthepolicyprocess, thereby Facilitating theparticipationofcivil making inpolicy- participation 3. Embedding amongst stakeholders. well asnewnetworks andvisions situation andfuture challenges,as a commonawareness ofthecurrent within agiven policyfield by building Enhancing thecapacityfor change 2. Facilitating policy implementation conceptualisation anddesign. to policy-makers asinputtopolicy new ideas) andtransmittingthem challenges andoptions(along with the dynamicsofchange,future Generating insightsregarding policy: 1. Informing 6. Symbolicfunction address long-term challenges. In away thatmakes itmore aptto 5. Reconfiguring thepolicy system implementation). options for policydefinition (and the collective process intospecific Jointly translatingoutcomesfrom policy definition 4. Supporting legitimacy. improving itstransparency and level ofparticipation (Y-axis) activities (X-axis) andthediversity and presented below withregard toforesight so-called model was developed inline withthe to functions offoresight in policy. The several phases, eachofwhich relates foresight shouldbeorganized in In theirmodel,itisproposed how based onrationalinformation. Presenting tothepublicthatpolicyis “adaptive foresight” . It is

Graph 4 Graph 5 Foresight 20 A Manual policy to befully implemented. often takes several years for a policy cycle canbevery long: it but notfully realized isthat the However, what istaken for granted 4. 3. 2. 1. The phases ofthisprocess are: 5. Making choices: context); of stakeholders–dependingonthe (with different degrees of involvement makers discuss possiblestrategies Strategic orientation: stakeholders; system withawiderparticipationof of possiblefuture evolutions ofthe Exploration: the current system; experts reflect onthesituationof Diagnosis translated intopolicy. coordination: selectedoptionsare Implementation and large aspossible;and debate toreach theconsensusas : policy-makers and buildingscenarios open public policy- • • from the current date. usually start“counting” theyears rather long (10-20years), butwe Foresight timehorizonsare also • What usually happensis: What expected impact. implemented and product the from a longpastperiod)willbe the policy(at thattimealready different by thetime we expect different –anditwillbeeven more the future willhave already bevery policy andstartimplementing it, So, by thetimewe develop the process ofusdeveloping thispolicy. “fixed” andnotchangeinthe as ifthefuture will“wait” /be Then we try todevelop thepolicy deep patterns (drivers ofchange). the influenceofemerging trends and present changesinto thefuture -under happen “behindthecorner”when the We trytounderstandwhat might • time tomanifest. economy will take even more and itsimpactonsociety implemented immediately – But, thispolicywillnotbe scenarios for transformative policy. the space for development of innovative period withany certainty –and thisis the current moment) present” (so more than15years from happen 10+years afterthe“future future” -thesituationthatcould the “future present” andthe“future The secondtimehorizon plan totake onmid-term. actions thatwe have already taken, or what mightbetheimplications of finished (5-6 years). when thecurrent policycycle is situation thatwe expecttohappen now and the“future present” –the The firsttimehorizon foresight operatingin2 time horizons. a 2017), which couldbedescribedas rather different orientation (Rava, present”. Thisapproach proposes a policy design from the“future constant “time-lag” ofpolicyisthe One oftheways toprevent this We cannot assumemuchaboutthis We can assumewithrelative certainty two-stage foresight framework – 21 isbetween isbetween b) a) include: minimalstepsinthisframework The c) e) d)

“future present”. identify trends anddescribethe Conduct horizonscanningto Experiential Futures). the “future present” (using “Locate” thestakeholders in “future future”. between the“future present” the “rich” description) for theperiod with systems methodstodevelop or Horizon Mission(together Use Backcasting, Futures Creative, to befully implemented). (when we expectthenewpolicy take place inthe“future future” the form ofsocialimpactthatwill Develop preferable scenariosin impact inthe“future future”. “future present” –andproduce policy thatwillbelaunchedinthe and aim/intention) for thenew the minimalrequirementsDescribe in van der Heijden and Sharpe,2007). exploratory (or deductive) foresight (see (trends). Thisissometimescalledthe basis ofwhat hasalready happened that willhappen tomorrow on the – considering thefuture assomething from thepresent “intothefuture” the “ahead” andthatismostly given already. the inclination tothink thatfuture is this isalways agreat challenge dueto seeks toavoid suchextrapolation, but becomes partofthepast). Foresight it iscollectedinthepresent, data the datafrom thepast(by thetime from thepresent -and onthebasisof Forecasting always “looks”atfuture is One ofthemainissuesin foresight the Future? Foresight: “From” or“Into” f) Most foresight methodologiesapply how to“look” at the future. in the“future present”. by thetimeitshouldbe launched lead tothedesignnewpolicy develop strategicplan thatwill Backplan tothecurrent day and “forward looking” approach –

Graph 6 Graph 7 Foresight 22 A Manual • • • inductive) foresight. sometimes calledtheanticipatory(or to bevery effective for foresight. It is all contrarytothat–anditproved innovative, thisapproach proved is something conservative andnon- word “backward” usually refers to the future” tothe present. approach: “backward looking”–“from However, there isanalternative • • • will leadtoexpected scenarios. in thepresent to create conditions that The focus isonwhatmustwechange the present. might happeninthefutureinfluences We trytoidentify scenarios isthefuture. Starting point should leadtoexpectedscenarios. events (and theirimplications) that The focus isonidentifyingfuture the future. and current events mightdevelopin We trytoidentify scenarios isthepastandpresent. Starting point

for developing for developing howthatwhat the wayhistory Althoughthe

design foresight methodologies. 1999). They indicate different ways to orientations (adapted from Ackoff, the planning, itis important tounderstand to thefuture in foresight and their relationship tothefuture. foresight) are alsoanticipatoryin Futures However, mostoftheExperiential Futures-Creative, andHorizon Mission this approach –including transformative innovation thatapply foresight methodologiesthatfocus on future” isBackcasting methodologies for looking“from the foresight becomingforecasting. is theonlysafe waytoavoidthedangerof present andemergingtrends. Andthis tell usabouthow we understand the our expectations(models ofthefuture) (feedback). It triestounderstand what future, notfrom thepresent orthepast the approach is that itseekstogather The power oftheanticipatory With regard todifferent relationships One ofthemostcommon “feed-forward” –signalsfrom the 4 different mindsets and (and Role-playing usedin . There are also 3 Horizons, . 23

Graph 10 Graph 9 Graph 8 • • • • Mindset: Prevent change itisn’t broken don’t fixif INACTIVE: • • • are andwhere theyare going. Mindset: dissatisfiedwiththewaythings past lookingatwalking intothefuture the REACTIVE: • future assoonpossible. the present the –anxiousnessto“reach” Mindset: Future isalwaysbetterthan thechangeembrace that iscoming PREACTIVE: status quo. by fire-fighting, andto keepthe The intentionistotemporaryadjust the symptoms. facedwithaproblem, address When organization isatstake. stability orsurvival ofthecurrent React only incrisis:when the perfect, buttheyare “good enough” the way thingsare: theymay notbe approach, this oneissatisfiedwith Unlike thecaseofreactive getting what ISwanted). not wanted (butdoesnotmean The intentionistoavoid what is problem arose. the statethatexistedbefore the it -ifsuccessful,thisbringsback then trytoremove orsuppress identify itscauseorsource, and facedwithaproblem, When an effort to return tothatstate. objective anddealwithproblems in Select aprevious stateasthe change by actingtowards it. objectives for it,andaccelerate the Predict thefuture, establish flow ofrivers for centuries. dream: people have beenreversing the under control – theonethatseeksto • However, there isthe4 toll from thosewho arrive later.” shore, turnaround, andcollect a else does.Thenhewould climbon get toitsdestination before anyone try togetonitsleading edgeand where thetide isgoingandwould he were proactive, hewould like fixed position, despitethetide. If to throw outananchorandhold a he would like hislocation andtry back toshore. Ifhewere inactive, and trytoswim againstthetide, reactive, hewould turnaround a strong undertow. Ifhewere carried away from theshore by swimming intheoceanandis “Picture aperson who goes • opportunities. risks andthreats andexploit The intentionistominimize addressing it. identify itsimpact,andprepare for facedwithaproblem, When . Thisisnotalways a th bring thetide approach Graph 12 Graph 11 Foresight 24 A Manual • • 5-10 years from now? we possibly knowwhere wewillwanttobe we couldbewherever wewanted,howcan not knowwhere wewouldberightnowif and wecreate itinthepresent -If do we Mindset: Future isopen (and notlinear) act inthepresent bythewaywe we create thefuture INTERACTIVE: – keep working on“closing thegap”. desired present tothecurrent state patterns thatwillapproximate the Develop actionsand behavioural avoid, orshouldminimize. not: what we donotwant, ortryto will leadtothepreferred future - Identify thedesired present that • • • • • • futures questions Inayatullah (2008)lists6setsof With regard tofutures thinking, Thinking Futures organization? become reality for yourself oryour - which future doyou wishto isyour preferredWhat future predicted orfeared future? are somealternativesWhat toyour predicted future? granted assumptionsofyour are thehiddenortaken-for-What Which future are youWhich afraidof? Environmental catastrophe? dramatic technological revolution? and more progress and wealth? A like? isyour prediction? What More doyou thinkthefutureWhat willbe acting differently inthepresent. of thefuture asispossible”by The intentionisto“create asmuch • • • • emerge? assumptions, what alternatives If you changesomeofyour Why orwhyWhy not? this future toadesired future? Do you thinkyou can transform Why? : • • • • • • known asMATDCT: comprehensive future approach is The 6pillars framework for developing aplausible future. the challenge andguide ustowards triangle helpsusbetterunderstand these three forces, thefutures By analysing theinteraction of • • • dimensions: views ofthefuture through 3 His Futures Triangle mapstoday’s •

Transforming thefuture Creating alternatives Deepening thefuture Timing thefuture Anticipation Mapping to thechange we wishtosee. The future. and trends thatare changing the The forward. The toward your preferred future? steps canyou take tomove in How mightyou getthere -what 25 pulls us image of thefuture pullsus are drivers pushes of thepresent are drivers weights of historyare thebarriers evidence (e.g. modelling)andthose differ from thosethatseekempirical panel). Ontheotheraxis,methods between stakeholders (e.g. citizen (e.g. expertpanel)ortheinteraction approach is basedmore onexpertise methods dependingonwhether the This meansthattheDiamondmaps Evidence dimensions offoresight: He distinguishedthefollowing (2008) inhisForesight Diamond. approaches was proposed by Popper understand different foresight One ofthecommonways to Popper’s Foresight Diamond , andExpertisevs.Interaction Creativity vs. . the useinforesight. foresight, butcanbeadjusted for are notalloriginally from methods presented intheDiamond It should benotedthatthe approaches (e.g. Delphi). Several methodscombinethetwo on observational insights(scanning). data putting more focus onnumerical or qualitative extent towhich theyare quantitative groups methodsdependingonthe (gaming). Moreover, theDiamond that are basedoncreative work (e.g. bibliometric) andothers -withsomemethods

Graph 13 Foresight 26 A Manual → whole 360degrees ofawareness. Scanning should beapplied tothe possible futures andtrends. even plausible intothewhole scopeof because itgoesbeyond probable or It isoftencalled“horizon” scanning 2. 1. exploring the externalenvironment to: is themethodofsystematically Environmental orHorizon Scanning and Trends 1) Horizon scanning and purposeofforesight isnecessary. customized for particularapplication developing mixed-method approach rarely relies on one single method,so methods. Afull-scale foresight exercise cycle and in combination withother used in various stagesofthepolicy forward”. Therefore, theymay be impact evaluations through the“feed- when conducting outcomeand and provide additional perspectives and strategyimplementation aswell, can contribute toongoing policy However, someofthosemethods making and prioritysetting. processes, andinforming decision- visioning and strategicplanning national dialogues,developing policy discussionsandconvening are particularly usefulfor framing selected for inclusion inthisguide Foresight methodsandtechniques approaches E. Foresight methodsand organisation infocus. developments relevant tothe challenges, andlikely future identify potentialopportunities, pace ofchange,and better understandthenature and or policychange. Most importantly, with strategy development, dialogue, it canalsobe used incombination and strategydevelopment. However, tasks intoexistingoneson policy very large) or integrating scanning a dedicatedteam(not necessarily external environment for thepurposeof monitoringthe function andbeconductedcontinuously sensing canbeconducted. environmental scanningorground- also changingtheway traditional platforms orcrowd-sourcing tools and consultations,socialnetworking including from massiveonlinesurveys amounts ofopendata(Big Data), The increasing availability oflarge • • • because: Scanning isdifferent from forecasting results). (who willusetheinsightsand policy issues) andthe“audience” “arena” (the locus: sector, industry, Scanning should alsoclarifythe Scanning or even drivers ofchange. trap ofconfusingsignalsfor trends of thescanningprocess toavoid the Moreover, itrequires proper design might emergeintopowerful trends. searching for “weak signals”that being onthe“look-out” and Scanning ismore orientedtowards calculations ofprobabilities. from thepast) andquantitative (with dataontrends comingmostly extrapolating present intofuture Scanning triestoavoid well asunderlingpatternsofchange. explore new, innovative ideas,as predictions, buttoidentify and Scanning doesnot seektomake can becomearegular . Thatrequires , is

• • to distinguish between thefollowing: emerge. Therefore, itisvery important will happen,buttoidentify what might Scanning isnot meant topredict what Key conceptsinscanning organizational change. further leadtopolicy, strategic,or for individualorganizationandto that are ofparticularrelevance insights totranslatethemintothose methods toproperly usescanning situation soitrequires additional scanning isfocused onexternal

change thathave arelatively clear Trends or are “masking” theactualtrends. relevant for ourforesight purpose, and issuesthatare eithernot distinguished from “noise”–events trends. Signals alsoshouldbe indeed manifestation ofmature thinking thatcurrent news are them withtrends mightleadto issues (data points), andconfusing Signals 27 are individualevents and are underlying pattersof

Source: Hogson and Sharpe, 2007 • explained below. weak signalsandwildcards, as scanning. unpredictability ofthefocus of depending onthecomplexity and uncertainties canvary considerably and 10+drivers. Thenumberof might be100+signals,20+trends, • • Foresight isfocused onidentifying In atypicalscanningprocess, there be announcedby weak signals.In action. Wild cards may ormay not material for enablinganticipatory They constituteraw informational of changeintrends andsystems. noisy orsocially situatedindicators Weak Signals the 2x2scenarios,aswell). and inwhich direction (used for “agree on” how theywould evolve that are happeningbutwe cannot Uncertainties globalization). range ofsectorsandindustries(e.g. have obvious impactacross awide Drivers are mostmature trends that different “maturity”oftrends. direction ofchange.We canidentify are emergingissues are lessadvanced, • its presence orrelevance). but mostdonotwant torecognize elephant” global financialcrisis), and but mostdidnotexpect,e.g.2008 do notreally comeoutofnowhere king” (misleading orfake signal),“dragon related notions are “red herring” reality notreally impactful).Other cognitive bias) and“red swan” (in white swan” (surprising only dueto extent, e.g.earthquake), “dirty- swan” (predictable toacertain arrival. Variations include:“grey warning systems oftheirpotential the establishmentofsimple early new opportunitiesandrisks Card may leadtothediscovery of the extreme impactsofaWild unlikely tohappen.Considering events thatseemtooincredible or low-probability buthigh-impact Wild Cards (or “BlackSwans”) issue mightopen. when “thepolicywindow” ofan anticipate theagendasettingor policy processes, weak signalscan (large,extreme events that (everybody aware ofit, “white are

Graph 14 • following questions Scanning should horizon scanning Applying preferred andspecific the “weak signals”are coming from. these “blindspots”are where mostof most importantfor scanningbecause know something. Thisarea isthe even beingaware that we donot behavioural biasesprevent usfrom important becauseourcognitive and The lastquestionisparticularly • • •

We shouldalsodetermine the Graph 15 to? questionswe needtorespondWhat (unknown unknowns)? not know thatwe donotknow dowe expectthatweWhat do unknowns)? dowe needtoknowWhat (known (known knowns)? dowe thinkweWhat know Foresight 28

• A Manual less important? isimportantandwhat is What start withthe : modes of • • pre-determined categories signalsandtrendsinto segmentation of useful manner, scanningisbased on to organizeitinameaningfuland that canbecollectedandtheneed Environment”, aspresented below. famous “TheArtofScanningthe used approach comesfrom Choo’s resource allocation.Themostwidely different tacticsanddifferent scanning Due tothewealth ofinformation approach becamemostcommon. Technology, Legal,andValues) (Politics, Environment, Society, More recently thePESTL+V Regulatory, andValue domains. Legal, Demographic, Ethnical, Other categoriestoconsiderinclude into thosecategoriesandanalysed. information iscollected,itorganized and Political domains. When Economic, Ecological/Environmental, which refers toSocial, Technological, The mostusualapproach isSTEEP, , eachofwhich requiring . consequent strategy and action planning. consequent strategy and action planning. to introduce thefeasibility aspectto preferred oneisidentified –in order after scenarios are developed –and the Therefore, scanning can alsobeused narrow thescopeofnew perspectives. the focus ofscenarios,butcan also is usefultoidentify theboundaryand then leadstoscenario development. It phase of thebroader foresight process that purpose ororganization. or targetedinsightsfor theparticular usually doesnotprovide customized a matterofseveral days. However, it synthesis –anditcouldbedonein reports –collecting, analysing, and based onanalysis ofexistingscanning of scanning” convenience, theso-called For thepurposeofexpediencyor the first Scanning isusually applied asthefirst canbeconducted.It is “scanning 29 Foresight for Development The Big Events Of Our Time: The Future Of Urbanization In The 21St Century

Rwanda → Title:

Foresight for Strategic Planning and Policy Development/ Foresighting Service Delivery in Secondary Cities Development Context:

Rwanda has undergone a remarkable transformation in the 21st century, with impressive economic growth, hugely improved public services, poverty reduction, social stability, etc. Its ambition is to become a prosperous middle income country within the next 10 years. Kigali has been a major driver of this metamorphosis and the government is looking to the secondary cities to provide additional impulses to growth, thereby opening up new possibilities for rural development. Development Challenge:

Sustainable Development Goal 11 aims ‘to make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable’. 95% of urbanization in the coming decades will take place in the developing world, presenting both challenges and opportunities for human development. Urbanization will interact heavily with other key drivers of the 21st century, such as of climate change, technological innovation, global movement of trade, people and ideas, etc. These interactions will create new development realities (climate refugees, smart cities, driverless cars, etc.) with new strategic opportunities for economic and social development for which 19th and 20th century templates provide limited guidance. Objectives:

1. To apply foresight to the future of urbanization and rural development; 2. To reflect upon necessary and feasible organizational tweaks to incorporate foresight techniques at different planning and policy development stages; 3. To identify strategic opportunities for economic growth and basic service delivery in the secondary cities. Foresight methods used:

• Horizon scanning and trends • Cross-impact analysis • Trend impact analysis • Scenarios – Generic Images • Backcasting Foresight 30 A Manual answer isarrived at. a seriesofrounds, untilaconsensus questions. Theprocess isrun again, in comments received toformulate better organisers then modifytheanonymous their rankings and comments. The Contributors respond by adding and present thesetocontributors. formulate questions aboutthefuture At thebeginning, theorganiser(s) colleagues, add their views in real time. can seetheresults asthey, andtheir do not have tomeetin personand Contributors tothegroup analysis an agreed position in thefinal round. on differing opinions, and goalseeks initial view, presents instant feedback Delphi first establishesthegroup’s a seriesofiterative learning rounds. It involves expertsurvey responses in processes to dealwithcomplex issues. to structure group communication The Delphi Method isatechnique Delphi method quantitative andqualitative analytics. system thinkingormore advanced participation, while otherbringinthe introduce additionalaspect of foresight insights and results. together theyimprove thequalityof from horizon scanning, but when used The following can beusedseparately related toscanning Methods andtechnique diverse perspectives aboutthe future forces andworldviews underpinning the future. CLAidentifies thedriving an issueorstrategic option about stakeholder narratives surrounding short, isan exercise in deconstructing Causal Layered Analysis, orCLAfor Causal Layered Analysis Moreover, someofthesemethods brainstorming stageofImpactAnalysis. tool isespecially usefulduring the the consequences ofchange). The in change management (to identify (to choosebetween options) and also beusedindecision making development. can Futures Wheels future consequences ofachange or visualisation ofdirect andindirect A futures wheel isagraphical wheel Futures from the expected norm. from theexpectednorm. the envelope ofpossibilities thatdeviate projection goes.TIAseeks to lookat deteriorate over time thefurtherout growth butmosttrend extrapolations predictable like globalpopulation of change. Sometrends are relatively and speedofarrival ofanemerging issue cause, nature, potential impact,likelihood Trend impactanalysis examines the Trend impactanalysis each otherusing amatrixformat. the impactoftrends orevents upon it involves identifying and evaluating of asetevents. Like itsname entails, consistently estimating the probabilities CIA isananalytical approach for extension oftheDelphi technique. techniques often thoughtofasan Cross-impact analysis isafamily of analysis Cross-impact what strategyshouldbeused. on thefuture ofanorganisation and groups holddifferent perspectives particularly usefulwhen different of thinking andoperating. It is that can break existingparadigms view ofpossiblefuture outcomes that, CLAisabletoproduce ashared of conventional thinking. Basedon through discussion and deconstruction and what itmeans todifferent groups • unintended consequences. play out-bothwithintended and environments in which today’s decision of alternativefutures -theemerging In foresight, scenariosrepresent narratives 2) UsingScenarios are growing inpower exponentially. hosting smallersimulationsandthese worlds tooare very largesimulations exciting touse.For instance,virtual to becomeever more pervasive and we canexpecttheseforesight methods devices becomeever more ubiquitous more sophisticated andmonitoring computer gamingtechnologybecomes dynamically andgraphically. As with many variables tobepresented rules allows complex systems dealing computerisation ofthestructure and gaming hasgrown ininfluenceas advance. Modelling, simulationand makers seetheeffects ofpoliciesin are techniquestohelpdecision Modelling, simulationandgaming Modelling, simulation andgaming usually ‘wicked’, problem. dimensional, non-quantified,complex, the possiblesolutionstoamulti- This typeofanalysis explores all perspective ofpossiblesolutions. mapping optionstoobtainanoverall opportunities. Thistechniqueinvolves that isusedtoidentifynewproduct in conjunctionwitharelevance tree Morphological analysis isoftenused analysis Morphological

about thepast, present, andfuture expectations, and assumptions perspectives, hypothesis, or plans -theyrepresented they are notpolicies,strategies Scenarios are notpredictions, and 31 rarely effectively addressed. which istheaspect offoresight thatis development and/or action planning be connectedtopolicydesign, strategy to practical initiatives,scenariosneedto van derHeijden 1997). “scaffolding” is presented below (from knowledge through scenariosusedas The example ofdeveloping making, dialogueandinnovation. represent “scaffolding” for sense- use “scenariolearning”. Scenariosthen necessarily seekingimitateaction,we improve collaborationwithout develop shared understandingand we seektohelpstakeholdersWhen purposes. can beusedfor different foresight Scenario development/building • However, ifwe wantforesight tolead formulating newones. current policiesandstrategiesor of reference when evaluating that provide avaluable point of examples ofpossiblefutures Scenarios identifyalimitedset system, orbroader development. of aparticularissues,organization, – • • Scenarios cantakedifferent forms foresight initiative. be maximum4-5scenarios inone The rule ofthumb:there should into action. be toconsolidatethemandtranslate we generate,themore difficultitwill dozen ormore. Themore scenarios one (visioning orbackcasting) toa The numberof scenariosvaries provide muchpractical value. presented inreports thatdonot exercises ormerely endupbeing often remain “make-believe” change (learning oraction) they If scenarios donottranslate into pathways from present tothefuture. scenarios are full description ofthe terms of“howitallcame tobe”. Such we seektoelaboratescenarios in how somefuture mightdevelop, we need tounderstand When statements. formulated inoneorseveral short the essenceoffuture situation They canbepresented as “kernel” : from . –

Graph 16 Graph 18 Graph 17 Foresight 32 A Manual designed for it. foresight andspecific methodology be useddependsonthepurposeof kindof scenario format will What • how thisfuture emerged. future -withouttheexplanation of outcomes) asastory“about” the like in“day inlife”, orspecific situation (the future pointintime, We may describeonly thefuture overlapping or correlating is developed, theyshouldnotbe and plausible also needtobeconvincing,consistent, extrapolation of current trends understanding ofit. – thatresonates withstakeholders’ situation. opportunities relationships, andproblems and whole spectrumof insights,feelings, presented as To beeffective, scenariosneedtobe scenarios: constructing when Do notforget When more thanonescenario When Scenarios shouldavoidmere Name eachscenario , etc.aboutthefuture . “rich picture” withthe –give atitle . , butthey cone” futures alternative populate thewholespaceof scenario, itishighly important to working withmoreWhen thanone process. undermine thewhole foresight process andfailure tosucceedcan rather demandingandchallenging Relating scenarios to strategies isa emphasis on strategies. and plans, butthissection willput it usually relates topolicies,strategies learning oraction.With regard toaction, they donotserveaparticular purpose –beit As mentioned, scenariosare noteffective if Strategies Relating Scenariosand is expected toend. current cycle ofpolicy orstrategy future, oratleast 5years afterthe periods ofatleast 10years intothe used for the“long-tail” –for the Scenarios are mosteffective when into theso-called“preposterous” futures. go beyond thescopeofpossiblefutures using Horizon Mission) dowe want to Only somecases(for instance,when scenarios -we identifypreferable futures. methodology focuses onnormative of possiblefutures -when foresight considered possible.In thatwhole space plausible futures butcover allthatis try toincludenotonly probable or (forecasted) future: instead, we should

We shouldavoid “projected” 33 below. – aspresented inthe “future

Risk Performance. Financial/Economic Performance, and options: Strategic Fit, CulturalFit, of four criteria for evaluating strategic related toeachscenarioonthebasis Matrix’, inwhich eachstrategyis assessment iscalled‘Scenario-Strategy policies may needtobestrengthened. flexible andadaptable what points where strategyneedstobe helps themidentifycriticalplanning in different scenarios,windtunnelling how theywould meettheirobjectives strategic objectives. to deliver aparticularproject orsetof future changesmightaffect theability windtunnelling. alternative futures /scenarios. policies) are alignedacross several to which individual strategies(or model below (van derHeiden, 1997). (business idea) -aspresented by the organizational actionand change environments toalternative effectively means relating alternative relating scenarios andstrategies refer toorganizationallevel.So, refer toenvironment whilestrategies this relationship isthatscenarios strategies, andviceversa. set ofscenariosinfluencesa iterate themandtoidentifyhow a strategies andscenarioswe needto exercise anditisnotone-directional. between scenariosisnotaone-step First andforemost, therelationship The techniqueofthiskind By inviting participantstoimagine This isbestaddressed by The secondmajorissueistheextent of The mostdifficultaspect To ensure theproper fitbetween It helpstotesthow to strategic action. that isbasedonscenarios leading organization conductingforesight as well astheresources ofthe based onpreferences andneeds, innovation, andthechoice ismade different combination ofriskand Each oftheabove implies a 4. 3. 2. 1. options intostrategies This further indeed takes place. results ifpreferable scenario/s and itmightleadtotransformative approach but themostinnovative, poorly in all other–it is the riskiest well inoneorseveral scenariosbut Gambling: strategic actions. approach based onaportfolio of – itisextensive andexpensive moderately inalmostallscenarios Multiple-coverage: performs strategy. be considered betterthantherobust open andinhighuncertaintymight than inother–itkeeps theoptions scenarios, butinsomemuchbetter Flexible: performs well inmost unpredictable changes. relatively conservative response to – ithasleastrisk,butmightbea over thefullrangeofscenarios Robust: performs moderately leadstogrouping strategic performs exceptionally , asfollows: clear and compelling vision is a precursor clear andcompelling visionisaprecursor visioning helpsdevelop that.Creating a and values ofitscreators –and serve asan example ofthemindset behaviours ofsocietyand culture, and should aimtoimpactthethoughts and designed policy, plan, orservice into newterritory. Asuccessfully getting themexcited topushforward team, organisation orcommunity and effective mechanisms a for engaging enriching avision isone ofthemost Participatory elaborating and years inthefuture. usually donefor periodofatleast10 Moreover, visioning in foresight is that focuses on“vision statement”. in conventional strategicplanning the contrasttovisioning approach into one particularscenario –which is “incasting” becauseitgoesin-depth foresight visioning issometimes called strategy ortransformative policy. In first stepincreating apowerful preferred future. Visioning isthe developing andenriching acompelling, Visioning isamethodfor identifying, Incasting Visioning/ Graph 19 Foresight 34 A Manual visioning, or any other scenario method. be usedasavery usefuladdition to situation might develop to understandhowaparticular future from future tothepresent, butattempts “back-planning” because itdoesnotplan but different ways toapply backcasting, in thepast(feed-back). There are to expectations (goals/objectives) set (feed-forward) ratherthan in relation come from theexpectedfuture situation “anticipatory models”in which insights It isclosely related totheconcept of the future thatiscommoninforecasting. to prevent extrapolation of thepresent into by Robinson (1990) withtheintention This methodwas originally developed Backcasting co-owned by thestakeholders. but aboutcreating ashared vision is notaboutcreating my vision, Ultimately, visioning inforesight of collaborators around acommonpolicy. creating theconditionstomobiliseagroup to strategic planning, andakey to backcasting should never be mere backcasting shouldneverbemere . Backcasting can toward creating thedesired future. to trychangetheconditions focuses onchangingthepresent events onanorganisation. It made andtheimpactofexternal outcomes dependingondecisions and canhave many alternative that thefuture isnotlinear, Backcasting reminds participants • • • connect thefuture tothepresent. programs are neededtoday thatwill consider what actions,policiesand This allows organisationsto trajectory or“how itallmighthappen”. It leadstoidentifying apotential (signals) thatgeneratedfuture. major events anddatapoints then working backwards toidentify in somecases,idealized)future and normative (preferred/desirable or The process startsby developing a 35 Foresight for Development Strategic Opportunities for Development in the 21St Century

Cabo Verde → Title:

Participatory Visioning, Resilient Planning and Innovative Solutions through Foresight Development Context:

The Government of Cabo Verde has set out an ambitious development vision for the country. In it, the Government stresses the need for new ideas and approaches for economic growth that is private-sector driven and geographically and socially equally spread; for citizens’ wellbeing, social inclusion and human capital development new, and; for responses to the changing relationship between citizens (and private sector) and state. Development Challenge:

The 21st century present radically new opportunities and challenges for development, limiting the relevance and usefulness of 20st century templates for economic growth, human capital development and responsive institutions. Strategic planning in Cabo Verde therefore needs to look to the future to identify opportunities for each strategic priority instead of simply repurposing other countries’ ‘used future’. These future strategic opportunities also need to capture the complex interactions with, for example, climate change, technological innovation, social transformation etc., if the Strategic Plan (PEDS) is to provide strategic coordination and policy coherence. Objectives:

1. Identify future strategic opportunities, challenges and risks to achieve the PEDS (Plano Estratégico de Desenvolvimento Sustentável) strategic objectives 2. Identify resilient and coherent priority policy areas/programs to realize the identified strategic opportunities 3. Explore and identify existing and newly required government structures to deliver collectively and coherently to strategic (i.e. sector transcending) objectives. Foresight methods used:

• Horizon scanning and trends • Cross-impact analysis • Trend impact analysis • 3 Horizons • Scenarios – Generic Images • Future headlines/Cover page/Day in life Graph 20 Foresight 36 A Manual with any scenariomethod. stand-along exercise, orbecombined might happendifferently). It canbea on why thismighthappen(or what The nextstepistofacilitatedialogue . about onetypicaldayinthefuture describes howaparticularpersonagoes January 2021). year inthefuture (for instance:on1 with mainheadlinesinacertain draw) thecover pageofanewspaper approach istoaskdescribe(or might happeninthefuture.The aspirations of stakeholdersaboutwhat (and challenge) assumptionsand It isasimple techniqueto inlifepage/Day Headlines/CoverFuture Schwartz inone of themostfamous by BGN and describedby Peter It the 1970s. was further systematized Pierre Wack for Royal DutchShellin early foresight andwas developed by scenario building the mostwidelyusedmethodologiesfor The so-called“2x2Matrix” is 2x2 Matrix /GBN A versionof thisis“day in life”, which . It emergedfrom uncover one of b) a) 2 uncertainties: The 4scenariosemergingfrom those their extreme manifestations. should beable toberepresented in directions. Moreover, uncertainties need todevelop inonly 2future what mighthappen)andthey from trends (we donotknow Uncertainties are very different only 2ofthosetousein foresight. critical uncertainties –and then selecting challenge isinidentifying genuine itisrelativelyWhile easytoapply, the • • • identify criticaluncertainties whichistoproperlychallenges, oneof However, itisnotwithoutanumberof generates 4divergent scenarios. in arelatively shortperiodoftime, uncomplicated methodologythat, alternative scenariosbecauseofits preferred approach togenerating View” books onforesight: c) addressed by foresight. with implications for thefocal issue a complete narrative /scenario Each kernel isthenelaboratedinto alternative futures are developed. kernels (essence ofascenario) of the two uncertainties,inwhich combinations ofthepoles The 4cellsrepresent 4 uncertainty (polarities). on amatrixwithtwo dimensionsof It iscalled“2x2”becauseitbased

cannot becorrelated, should allbeplausible, and (avoiding “good” vs. “bad”scenarios). should allberelatively preferable (1991).It remains themost “Art of theLong . • • consolidated themethodology. of the“SustainableHawaii 2050” and for theparticipatorydevelopment futures. This approach was first applied very different from3 thoseintheother methodological anddatabasesthatare in eachthemshare commontheoretical, futures are “generic” becausethevarieties of generic“alternative futures”. These that mostofthoseproduced 4types colleagues (Dator, 2009)identified Center for Future Studies) and his Manoa SchoolattheHawaii Research Dator (the founder oftheprominent of diverse foresight applications, Jim On thebasisofcomparative analysis Generic Images The genericfutures are:

“Collapse” (fundamental break of “Growth” (or acceleration thepresent) 37 • governments. common methodologyfor foresight in the 2x2matrixandincreasingly It isoneofthebestalternatives to typical drivingforces changeineach: number ofspecific variations. because eachgenericform hasalarge • • The matrixbelow presents how These are not“standardized” futures formulating 4 specific scenarios. formulating 4 specific scenarios. then moves to deepening each towards assuming 4different contexts and from scratch,thisapproach startsby Instead ofgenerating scenarios different future) “Transformation” (radically regulated future), “Discipline” (highly controlled/ the present) • to the4generic scenarios. “artefacts from thefuture”) specific deep experience (including up 4 different rooms, each providing methodology often includes setting situations (experiential futures), this stakeholders into thefuture In order toimmerse the • incorporated. that allpossibledevelopments are futures (the “future cone”),so to cover thewhole spaceofpossible The 4scenariosare thenbroadened address. that theforesight exercise seeksto focus onparticularquestionorissue many aspects,sowhat differs isthe The contextisgiven inadvance in

Graph 21 38 Foresight for Development Institutional Innovation to Escape the Middle Income Trap

Mauritius → Title:

Towards an Innovative Civil Service in Mauritius Development Context:

Mauritius is a middle income country on the cusp of gaining higher income status. However, the prospect of the middle income trap looms large. There is a growing awareness that a successful transition will require both economic and institutional transformations. The public service, so instrumental in the ‘Economic Miracle’ of the 1980s, needs to innovate if it is to provide the political government with strategic policy frameworks fit for transformation in the 21st century and to provide the citizenry, changing and more demanding, responsive basic services. Development Challenge:

Many successful developing countries are facing profound difficulties to progress from the original economic growth model that exploited a certain advantage (e.g. low wages) towards a more high-value-added type of economy. With the initial advantage fading, investments diminishing and efforts to diversify stalling, these countries look for emerging economic opportunities and innovations to escape the ‘middle income trap’ and propel the economy in the 21st century. This will require an institutional environment that is anticipatory and adaptive instead of backward looking and ‘business as usual’. Objectives:

1. To construct generic scenarios of Mauritius in 2025, based on the future (interaction between) three key drivers: technological innovation, changing relationships between the public, private and civic sector and, emerging patterns of public services delivery; 2. To gain new insights in the opportunities and challenges posed by (the interaction between) these key drivers for the performance of the Civil Service; 3. To develop, prototype and fine-tune realistic and actionable opportunities for innovation in public services delivery. Foresight methods used:

• Horizon scanning and trends • Cross-impact analysis • Trend impact analysis • Scenarios – Generic Images • Prototyping service innovation lead topreferable futures. would lead tothosedecisions that the needtodevelop conditions that the implications ofdecisions and Most importantistheawareness of prepare oradjusttothem. futures andprovides opportunities to it envisages very different possible This approach isaproactive onebecause • • • strategy andaction. as linkingitproperly withpolicy, facilitation anddialogue,aswell simple toapply, butrequires proper branching scenarios.It isrelatively essence thismethodologyisbasedon (as usedby Adam Kahane), butin Transformative ScenarioPlanning It isnow known asthe Scenario Exercise inSouthAfrica in1992. stakeholders was theMont Fleur initiatives involving broader One ofthemostfamousforesight Branching scenarios

and actionplanning. consequent strategydevelopment might drastically complicate the too many scenariosbecauseit but itisimportantnottocreate for aslongitisnecessary, The branchingcanbecontinued scenarios emerge. a decision-tree), two diverging At eachofthosesteps(basically, “no”. which canbeanswered by “yes” or series ofcriticaldecision–each The methodologyisbasedona 39 • • models, dialogue,andinnovation. Most ofthosecomefrom systems can beadjustedandusedinforesight. outside thediscipline offoresight that techniques, andmethodologiesfrom There isanumberofmethods, Innovation 3) Foresight, Dialogue,and but their purpose is not scanning or but theirpurpose isnotscanning or usually considered a part of foresight, There are methodologies thatare foresight and future research. but hasbeen usedextensively for dialogue orconsultative approach, foresight. with reference totheir usein Liberating Structures ) are presented approaches (Appreciate Inquiry, A selectednumber ofdialogue is a general Conference is ageneral model • • situations. helps embedstakeholders in future Futures Finally, theuseofExperiential specific foresight application. it ispresented here withregard to complex socialsystems domain, but here (Futures-creative ) comesfrom One ofthosemethodologiespresented Horizons, Horizon Mission). scenario building butinnovation (3 • more tangible. and wisdom“from thefuture” emphasis on makingartefacts are presented here withthe development approaches), they playing inmost otherscenario Generic Images;andRole- (Experiential Futures in used inothermethodologies someofthoseare often While and Role-playing inforesight

Graph 22 Graph 23 Foresight 40 A Manual • presented below: relatively easytoorganize. it requires askilledfacilitator, itis and how toactuponthose.Although diversity of perspectives onthefuture of itsemphasis onaddressing the method applied for foresight because ecological, andhumanterms. and mostcapableineconomic, community when itismosteffective what gives “life” toanorganisationor them and communities,theworldaround fort thebestinpeople,theirorganisations is acooperative, co-evolutionarysearch considered toalready beeffective. It builds onthepositive thingsthatare process ofchangethatfocuses and Appreciative Inquiry(AI)is a Appreciative Inquiry The mainphases oftheAIare AI isoftenusedasadialogue Destiny (sustaining change) action/strategy); it endswith future) andDesign (co-constructing moving toDreaming (creating (appreciating thepast); andthen Starting withDiscovery . It involves systemicdiscovery of • the Liberating Structures (currently the contentand intention. while providing distributedcontrol of and largergroups (100ormore), can accommodatebothsmall groups “micro-structures” for dialoguethat in thepower ofcollaborative work. expectations, as well as decreasing trust outcome failstomeettheneeds and of frustrationorexclusion, and the people. Theusualsentiment isone inhibiting ortooloosetocreatively engage related orotherwise) are eithertoo for collaborative interaction (dialogue- argument isthatconventionalstructures of Liberating Structures”. Theirmain (2013) in “TheSurprising Power by Lipmanowicz. andMcCandless Liberating Structures ispresented recent consolidated approach to of dialoguefacilitators.Themost practitioners from acommunity and elaboratedby agroup of in 1991and was furtherenriched was introduced by William Tolbert The ideaofLiberatingStructures Liberating structures democratically mobilised. thought possible are suddenly and change agenda,andchangesnever an organisation orcommunity’s energy ofthis core directly to AI linkstheknowledge and future capacities—thepositive core. people talkaboutaspast,present and rich accountsofthepositive”—what community hasmany “untappedand AI assumesthatevery organisationof There isavariety oftechniques of Therefore, theydeveloped so-called times. The cycle canbeiteratedmany in theredesign ofprocesses and internal andexternal stakeholders It isalso usefulfor involving participants –allinthefuture setting. enhanced relationships among agreements andactions, and system underconsideration, new increased understanding of the open exchange of information, The Conference Model creates an • • • of three elements: creative methods,themodelconsists search theory, andexperiential/ Based onSocio-Technical Theory, of integratedfuture-oriented events. system-wide changethrough aseries engaging largenumbersofpeople in of thefirst foresight approaches The Conference Model was one Conference model more substantive foresight methods. they are usefulfor combining with between 30minand1h. Therefore, to learn anduse; andusually take are genuinely aboutdialogue; easy Liberating Structures is that they The most important aspectof • • • • • the following: foresight andinnovation, including 33), andseveral ofthoseare usedfor

Commitments /Pledgesfor change Walkthrough process Series ofintegratedconferences 15% solutions What) 3 Ws Now SoWhat, Brief (What, 25/10 Crowdsourcing Whys 9 1-2-4-All 41 or evenscanning,itismosteffective for might beusedfor scenariodevelopment popular isthe3Horizons. foresight thatisrapidly becoming One ofthenovel methodologiesfor 3 Horizons new strategicdirections. creating organisational alignment with management cooperation,and work teams,improving union/ units/processes, creating self-directed cultures, integratingorganisational futures,developing new organisational processes, creating organisational applications includeredesigning organisations. Conference Model Although it methodological approach is The overall conceptualand collaboration andjointaction. ways how toreconcile themfor change, andopportunity) andthe terms ofhow they relate torisk, generic mindsetsofpeople (in Horizons alsodescribesthe3 methodology for foresight, 3 Besides beingusedaspractical environment. to broader, emergingchangeinthe proposals orstrategiesinrelation implications ofalternative policy and plans innovation of current policies,strategies, . It canalsohelpidentify

Source: Name of the image Graph 24 • the methodology) describedasfollows: which theyare usually addressed in be applied (at leastinitially). require more thanoneworkshop to is rathereasytouseanddoesnot complicated, theactualmethodology of 3Horizons mightseemabit of theconcept Hope” (2013).While Sharpe: “Three Horizons: ThePatterning consolidated inthebookby Bill

These horizons are (in theorder in Graph 26 Graph 25 as itsenvironment changes. future when itloses“fit” over time system as itcontinuesintothe 1 Foresight 42 st • Horizon: thecurrent, prevailing A Manual 3rd Horizon future” which mightlead tothe It contains the“pockets ofthe situation in relation toeachother– scenarios tend todescribe astatic In mostforesight methodologies • • perspectives andvalues. usually clashover competingfuture 1st and2ndhorizonsinteract of changeandinnovation where the 2nd Horizon: thetransitionspace idealistic) in thepresent. are mostly considered marginal (or about thefuture ofthesystem, which 3rd Horizon : ideasorarguments • • opportunities are tobefound. This isthewhere innovation environment thatemerge. changes intheexternal potential torespond tothe This horizonhasthegreatest horizons “oscillate” continuously in which the1 For instance,there canbe asituation series ofdifferent otherinteractions. versions ofthemapcan represent a optimized pathways, additional thebasicmodel showsWhile strategic fitwiththeenvironment. each other, andeachother’s progress together while influencing by introducing 3pathways that The 3Horizons addresses thatgap accommodate complexity. to thefuture, sotheyoften cannot linearly progressing from thepresent dynamically. Theyare alsoseen as not how theymightinteract more st horizon and2nd 43 Foresight for Development The World we Have-Get- Want: New Development Opportunities for the 2030 Agenda

Lesotho → Title:

SDG Foresight Workshop Development Context:

The Ministry of Developmental Planning, on behalf of the Government of Lesotho, is working on Vision 2066 and the National Strategic Development Plan 2 (post 2017). The global, continental and regional agendas (SDGs, Agenda 2063 and SADC RISDP) are used as a benchmark for these visioning and planning processes. As a landlocked LDC, Lesotho’s situation present unique opportunities and challenges for the realization of the many ambitions of these agendas. Development Challenge:

The sheer ambition of the SDGs and the volatile new reality of the 21st century call for innovative approaches to identify emerging strategic opportunities and to turn good policies in cumulative results for citizens. It is no longer sufficient to look only towards the past for answers; if anything, governments need to sharpen their ability to look towards the future to realize the grand vision inherent in 2030 Agenda. However, existing foresight practice, which is very resource intensive, needs to be adapted to the circumstances and constraints of LDC like Lesotho. Objectives:

1. To identify and explore the added value of foresight in a strategic visioning, management, planning and implementation processes, such as the SDGs and National Development Strategies; 2. To generate visions of preferred futures, scenarios of strategic sectoral opportunities and resilient plans for alternative operating systems; 3. To identify opportunities for introducing foresight methods in Lesotho’s national, sectoral, urban and local strategic planning processes. Foresight methods used:

• Horizon scanning and trends • Cross-impact analysis • Trend impact analysis • Scenarios – Generic Images • Future headlines/Cover page/Day in life Foresight 44 A Manual transformative innovationinanyfield. best approaches toidentifydisruptive, this versionof backcastingisoneofthe applied for technologicalinnovation, very differentWhile usually purpose. the backcasting approach, butwitha represents aspecificapplication of The Horizon Missionmethodology Horizon Mission presented below: transformational change(“+”)–as present (”- “)while otherleadto of thoserequire modificationofthe opportunities are tobefound. “both ways” andwhere innovation horizon. It isthezone,which looks iterations), thefocus isputonthe2nd Horizons (which canbedonein dynamics of the3horizons the shared the expected understandingof shouldincludeclarify of thismethodology dominance over thesystem. replacing eachotherin termsof After identifyingthe1stand3rd . Some Each use

Graph 27 purpose ofinnovative breakthrough present intothefuture for the Another way toavoid extrapolating Futures-creative /ISM major future innovations. the present where they identified impossible future gotthemoutof Working backward from an already available, orjustemerging. of technologies for thatmissionwas ended upunderstanding thatmost was notthepurpose), butthey accomplish thatmission(and that They didnot found away to • • applied adifferent approach than breakthrough change.Anderson to recommend incremental rather disciplinary backgrounds andtend forecasting,When we are boundby lead totransformative innovation. development pathways thatmight decide ontheresearch and John Anderson tohelpengineers It was developed for NASA by to beclose toimpossible. future situation thatis considered might emerge, butto work from the understand how certain future This methodology helpsnot to technologies would berequired?’’ had actually taken place, what ‘‘Supposing thatsuchamission ‘‘decompose’’ that mission by asking: The second stepwas to actually take several months). mission toJupiter which would technology (inthiscase:1-day infeasible given theexisting that was considered completely mission (“horizonmission”), one Firstly, theycreated afantastical • represents a“big”issue). important only becauseitisurgentor (for instance,thinkingsomethingis “group-think” andcognitive biases priorities”, which are produced by to avoid theso-called“erroneous particular dialogueframework of thismethodologyisthatuses (degrees of influenceswithin a system). (ISM) methodthatidentifiesleverages Interpretative Structural Modelling it incorporates, amongstother, the of emergingissuestoforesight –and and engaginginthereconnaissance setofunderstanding thecurrent problems applied for different purposes–from (SDD). TheSDD isamethodology in theStructured DialogicDesign is the“futures-creative” modelused One ofthemostimportantaspects

(systemic influence). use ofISMto identify theleverage priority voting technique,and the priorities when using theusual between how stakeholders perceived The graph shows thedifference 45 • methods) in4phases: ISM (incombinationwithother The “futures-creative” modeluses should not have any consideration a normative, “willed”future that in an “idealized” future. Thisis understand system relationships The stakeholders trytobetter • and innovation. important for systemic change only), buthisindeed themost considered apriority(2votes the challengeNo. 3was not It shows, for instance,that • • • First Dallas Regional 2015 Greg Heartsfield the emergingfuture. present for transformative changein purpose istoinnovate inthe end, lessimportantbecausethe future becomesfeasible is,atthe or not the“idealized” plan. Whether specific policy, strategy, oraction This thenleadstopreparation ofa the present trends anddevelopment. reaching the “idealized”future given identifying the“barriers”for Finally, ISMisapplied for analysis oftrends and developments. on thepresent situationandfor The sameapproach isapplied of current perspectives on feasibility.

Graph 28 Foresight 46 A Manual what itwould feel like. “be” inthefuture by experiencing stakeholders are invited tobriefly Instead oflooking “at” thefuture, • • Stuart CandyandJeff Watson. is developed attheSituation Labby Experiential Futures. situations, theapproach isknown as or beembeddedindesignedfuture future artefacts(tangible objects) thefocus is onproducingWhen into specificfuture situations. deeply “immersing”of stakeholders approach addresses thatissueby presented inabstractmanner. This very challengingbecauseideasare Working withforesight isoften thefuture from /Advice artefacts Future can fully “experience it”. presentations, sothatstakeholders rich variety offormats and The future isrepresented in online socialplatforms. exhibits andinstallations,orat organization ofparticipatory in thesocialforesight through It isbecomingincreasingly used Thisapproach

Changing Healthcare Delivery through Design Ted Eytan • • on thewisdom“from thefuture”. “Advice from theFuture” foresight-specific techniqueiscalled experience isby Role-playing. The future situationsthattheycandeeply Another waystakeholders toembed in strategy or a plan in the present. strategy oraplan inthepresent. on how todevelop new policy, problem”) by advising thestakeholders question” (or specific “wicked “advisors” toaddress a“triggering continues by asking thepanel offuture about thefuture situation, and then It startswithashort,scriptednarrative work atleast10years intothefuture. makers orstrategistswho live and “advisors from thefuture” -policy role ofspecificpersonas that represent Stakeholders are asked toassumethe andfocused 47

OnInnovation Michelle Andonian Foresight 48 A Manual → Main Literature tools.html on 25 September2014. ecosystemsknowledge.net/futures- Review. Accessed from M. Future Tools Literature Alister, S.andHardman, Evely, A.,Reed, M., Turning Insightsinto Action, Wiley. and Sharpe,B.,Scenarios for Success: System Structure, invan derHeijden, K. (2007). Deepening Futures with Hogson, T. and B Sharpe, world. YESpublication. practices andtrends around the (2013) Foresight inGovernments: Dreyer, I.andStang,G. 14(2), 1-18 of Future Studies, November 2009, Futures attheManoa School, Journal Dator, J. (2009)Alternative Strategic Management, 20(3) Process. Technology Analysis and the FORLEARN Mutual Learning on Policy-Making: Insightsfrom F. andScapolo, C., Cagnin, Da Costa,O., Warnke, P., Futures Using Foresight inPractice,Thinking Infused Strategy: AHow-to-Guide for Conway, M.(2016)Foresight Sciences. February-March, 21-24 the AmericanSocietyfor Information Scanning the Environment. Bulletin of Choo, W.C. (1999).TheArtof Oxford University Press Organizations for 21 the Corporation:ADesignof Ackoff, R.(1999)Re-Creating (2008)TheImpactofForesight st Century, http://neat.

Explorations inDesign,sLab/OCAD a Methodological Framework, Towards Understanding and Rava, N.(2017)Policy Design: 10(6), 62-89 foresight methodsselected?”Foresight Popper, R.(2008)“How are Global BusinessNetwork (1998)PlottingYour Scenarios, P. Ogilvy, J. andSchwartz, pdf on25September2014. Inventory-of-Foresight-Methodologies. wp-content/uploads/2012/10/WP5- Accessed http://www.star-idaz.net/ Programme Cooperation,Theme2. 5, STAR-IDAZ 7thFramework Methodologies and Studies, WP (2012) Inventory of Foresight Nicolini, F. M. andBagni, Structures Press a culture ofinnovation. Liberating Structures: Simple rulesto unleash Surprising Power ofLiberating McCandless, K.(2013)The Lipmanowicz, H.and pf-complete.pdf. shapingtomorrow.com/media-centre/ Tomorrow, Available athttp://www. Foresight Guide,Shaping Jackson, M. (2013)Practical Transforming, Foresight, 10(1),4-21 Pillars: Futures Thinkingfor Inayatullah, S.(2008)Six Oxford. KindleEdition Short Introductions) (p.2).OUP A Very ShortIntroduction (Very Gidley, Jennifer M.TheFuture:

Foresight, 5(3),10-21 Foresight Process Framework, Voros, J. (2003)AGeneric Process, Presearch, 1(1) Scenarios, Strategy, andtheStrategy Van derHeijden,K.(1997) Government Office forScience for policy-makers andanalysts. UK: Toolkit: Tools for strategicfutures for Science(2014)TheFutures United Kingdom Government Office service-excellence/Foresight.html building/global-centre-for-public- undp/en/home/librarypage/capacity- at: http://www.undp.org/content/ for Developing Countries,Available Strategic Long-term PlanningTool (GCPSE) (2014)Foresight asa Excellence Public Service forUNDP GlobalCentre Triarchy press Horizons: ThePatterning ofHope, (2013)Three B. Sharpe, the LongView, Doubleday/Currency P.Schwartz, (1991),TheArtof 842 Under Glass,Futures, 22(8),820– Robinson, J. (1990) B. Futures 49

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