1 Foresight Manual Empowered Futures for the 2030 Agenda © 2018 UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence #08-01, Block A, 29 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, 119620 Singapore UNDP partners with people at all levels of society to help build nations that can withstand crisis, and drive and sustain the kind of growth that improves the quality of life for everyone. On the ground in more than 170 countries and territories, we offer global perspective and local insight to help empower lives and build resilient nations. The Global Centre for Public Service Excellence is UNDP’s catalyst for new thinking, strategy and action in the area of public service, promoting innovation, evidence, and collaboration. Disclaimer: The analysis and policy recommendations in this publication do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations, including UNDP, or the UN Member States. All photos in this publication have Creative Commons copyright licences and are credited to their authors. Cover Image: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Layout: Ana Simões (UNV Online Volunteer) Foresight Manual Empowered Futures for the 2030 Agenda UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence Singapore, January 2018 4 7 26 A Manual Foresight → → A. Introduction E. Foresight methods and approaches 10 26 → Horizon scanning and Trends 27 Table ofTable Contents B. Empowered Futures for the SDGs Key concepts in scanning 28 Applying horizon scanning 10 1. Alignment of Development Visions Methods and technique related to 30 2. Anticipatory Governance and scanning 11 Strategic Management 11 31 3. Resilient Policy Planning 4. Policy and Public Services Using Scenarios 12 33 Innovation Relating Scenarios and Strategies 35 Visioning/ Incasting 12 34 The Empowered Futures Initiative Backcasting Future Headlines / Cover page / 13 36 Day in life → 36 2x2 Matrix / GBN 37 C. Doing Foresight Well Generic Images 39 Branching scenarios 13 The Three P’s of Foresight 15 39 Organizing for foresight 15 Foresight, insight, action Foresight, Dialogue, and Innovation 40 Appreciative Inquiry 17 40 Liberating structures → 41 Conference model 41 D. Different foresight frameworks 3 Horizons 44 Horizon Mission 44 Generic Foresight Process Futures-creative / ISM 17 Framework Future artefacts / Advice from the 19 46 Foresight for Policy future Foresight: “From” or “Into” the 21 48 Future? 24 → Futures Thinking 25 Popper’s Foresight Diamond Main Literature 5 Foreword → If, as Dickens’ David Copperfield robotics, the Internet of Everything, strategic coordination, planning and remarked, dreams are dress Artificial Intelligence, will force innovation. It builds on existing rehearsals for the future, the vision us to fundamentally rethink what public service structures, processes of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable ‘decent work, ‘quality education’ and and resources in developing countries Development promises a bright future even ‘strong institutions’ will look and promotes the use of foresight indeed. Intensely ambitious, the 17 like in 2030. The list goes on and in on-going policy cycles which Sustainable Development Goals speak on. It is fair to say that there is an are centered on the formulation of of fundamental change. The spoils of equal need to radically reframe what national development plans, and the human progress and economic growth ‘development’, as envisioned by the mainstreaming and acceleration of will be shared fairly by all. Poverty 2030 Agenda, will actually mean in SDGs in these plans. will be eradicated and the planet the volatile reality of the 21st century. The Foresight Manual – protected “from degradation, including Governments looking to turn Empowered Futures for the 2030 through sustainable consumption and the ambitious 2030 Agenda into Agenda provides a crisp and concise production, sustainably managing its concrete results for their citizens overview of the use of foresight for natural resources and taking urgent are therefore poorly served by the SDGs implementation. The Manual action on climate change”. 1 ‘used’ futures from the past. They puts foresight firmly in a development Regardless of our dreams, however, require innovative tools to ideate, context, emphasizing the importance the world is already transforming shape and realize their own future, of foresight capacity in developing at neck breaking speed. The great leveraging emerging opportunities countries. It gives concrete suggestions disruptive forces of the 21st century, and minimizing risks. where and how to employ foresight like technological innovation, ever Foresight is such a tool. It enables at different levels of the policy cycle, increasing flows and networks of public planners to use new ways of as well as tips on how to effectively trade, finance and people are creating thinking about, talking about, and use foresight. The Manual ends with radically new future realities. The implementing strategic plans that are a review of the most widely used World We Want will be realized, not compatible with the unfolding future. foresight techniques currently available. in The World We Have, but in The Foresight is a critical capacity of those I hope that this Manual will World We Will Get. parts of government responsible for encourage truly empowered futures in The world in the 21st century is, in strategic decision-making, strategic developing countries. many ways, incomparable to previous management and, crucially, policy ones. The past only provides limited coherence. blueprints for how development GCPSE has developed, tested will look like in the Anthropocene and scaled up a foresight approach Age, in which climate change will that fits the particular context radically disrupt our conception and circumstances of government and prioritization of (to name just in developing countries. This a few) food security, migration, Empowered Futures framework aims economic growth and security. to strengthen local capacities to apply Technological innovation such as strategic foresight for visioning, Max Everest-Phillips Director, UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence 1. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September 2015, A/ Res/70/1 A Manual Foresight 6 7 A. Introduction → Foresight is the umbrella term for and decisions concerning their future. those innovative strategic planning, Jennifer Gidley, in her The Future: A policy formulation and solution Very Short Introduction wrote “For design methods that don’t predict thousands of years we have struggled to or forecast the future, but work with predict, control, manage, and understand alternative futures. Foresight has been the future. Our forebears sought advice defined as“a systematic, participatory, from oracles; read the stars through future-intelligence- gathering and astrology; debated concepts of time and medium-to-long-term vision-building future philosophically; wrote utopias process aimed at enabling present-day and dystopias; and, in the modern decisions and mobilizing joint action.”1 scientific era, tried to predict the future by Foresight empowers decision makers accumulating and interpreting patterns and policy planners to use new ways from the past to extrapolate models of the of thinking about, talking about, and future. But the single, predictable, fixed implementing strategic plans that are future that the trend modelling proposes compatible with the unfolding future. does not actually exist. Instead, what is out there is a multitude of possible futures.”2 The premise of foresight is that Foresight tries to steer a course the future is still in the making between the unsettling uncertainty and can be actively influenced or and unpredictability of the future even created, rather than what has and the need for data, information already been decided or enacted and intelligence to shape this future, in the past by others, there only to without resorting to wishful thinking, unearth or replicate, and passively prophecies, predictions or forecasts. accepted as a given or ‘good practice’. Some of its assumptions are captured in the box below. Foresight cultivates This is an empowering realisation. crucial skills such as cross impact Foresight allows governments to analysis and synthesis, systems construct development narratives thinking, windtunnelling, and planning of their desired futures in the 21st for long-term and deep uncertainties. century, instead of relying on the It is based upon a range of skills: ‘used’, ‘second-hand’ futures from situational awareness to possible, highly developed countries. It enables probable and preferable futures; a public service organisations to better pro-active scanning of the horizon; frame future policy environments an ability to sort, sift through and and present decision-makers with combine open, real-time and emerging more and better choices for inclusive data and the creation of tight feedback growth and social justice. Participatory loops. It entails the exploration of foresight breaks with the habit of possible scenarios and pathways, exclusively relying on (foreign or the identification of future risks and local) technical experts and invites opportunities, and the systematic citizens to participate in discussions rehearsal of potential responses. 1. Miles, Ian, Saritas, Ozcan and 2. Gidley, Jennifer M. The Future: A Solokov, Alexander, Foresight for Very Short Introduction (Very Short Science, Technology and Innovation, Introductions) (p. 2). OUP Oxford. Springer Switzerland 2016, p.12 Kindle Edition. 8 10 things we need to know about the future/s A Manual Foresight 1. The future cannot be