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Definition of Horizon Scanning (Or Wide Scope Foresight)

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Definition of Horizon Scanning (Or Wide Scope Foresight) S&T Foresight & Horizon scanning Influencing R&D priorities Netherlands Victor van Rij – Ministry OCW - Netherlands Presentation for TIP- RIHR OECD workshop Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting 15-16 September 2008 OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting S&T Foresight & Horizon scanning Influencing R&D priorities • Position Foresight and Horizon scanning in the R&D cycle • Horizon scanning • Possible systematic approach to influence the research agenda to future societal challenges and scientific opportunities OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting International New insight International science New technology & (scientific) education Human resources New insight Expectations New technology Applications EXECUTION Solutions R&D Experts PROGRAMS R&D OUTPUT ResearchResearch R&D PROGRAM programmingcyclusprogrammingcyclus PRIORITY SETTING AND DESIGN R&D PROGRAM ASSESSMENT NEW R&D QUESTIONS CHALLENGES Foresight Society Horizon Short term Scanning Long term Planning Problems & Opportunities Economy OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting Public Funds for Research Netherlands • 3 to 4 billion € a year • 77 % basic or institutional funding • 23 % project - program funding • Foresight and Horizon scanning supports external and internal decisions on the questions to answer by R&D S&T Foresight in the Netherlands Societal oriented thematic S&T foresight (COS-Min Ed Cult Science - others) : ocean farming, key technologies, health and nature, water management, energy, bio-fuels, food and health, data mining etc Science oriented S&T foresight (Royal Academy) : bio-geology, bio- fysics, nanotechnology, hydrology, social sciences Economically oriented S&T foresight (Min Economic Affairs) : Technology radar, Dynamo OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting Reasons for the S&T Foresight • Development of new R&D and Innovation programs (on themes that are already identified) • Priority setting (within the scope of the foresight) ,supporting decision makers • Creating new (networks) on new emerging areas • Advocacy OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting Foresight & Horizon scanning Netherlands Experience former round of foresight • Mainly thematic/discipline foresight some key technologies + Good for aligning activities/actors on theme + programming “known” new themes + some economic oriented priority setting - Ad hoc character - Risk of tunnel visions - Some new emerging issues stay out of scope - Societal problems require multi and trans disciplinary answers and sometimes just policy answers Foresight & Horizon scanning Netherlands New concept 2005 pilot horizon scan Based on international study of national-foresight Wide scope foresight – Horizon scan (UK, Japan) + Better scoping thematic/discipline foresight + Widening scopes – awareness on complex interactions – new emerging issues between disciplines and domains OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting Definition of Horizon scanning (or wide scope foresight) • “The systematic examination of a very wide variety of potential (future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments , Also the ones which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. • Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, weak signals, as well as persistent problems or trends. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to improve the robustness of policies and evidence base (Defra – UK)” • Methods: Literature, brainstorms , different participative processes, scenario’s, conferences etc • Participation -- democracy ---acceptance of outcomes--- more angles (who is an expert??) OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell Expectations of With expected Expectations of Opportunities / large impact on: threats/ problems solutions caused by or Coming from: Sustainability of coming from: society and ecology Human action/ Human action/ Brainpower Social environment Common desires Values Physical Physical environment environment Certainties/uncertainties/ Key issues/ questions to research needed for strategic decision making OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting Common desires – Sustainability : • Biological dimension: Health, Survival, reproduction and longevity, ecological environment, biodiversity • Economic financial dimension: Welfare (production, distribution) • Social dimension: Wellbeing (working and living conditions, social cohesion etc) • Cultural dimension: Self realization, level of education, emancipation,ethics , right of animals • Governmental, Juridical dimension (human rights, democracy, freedom of communication and religion etc) • Good (global) neighbourhood ship Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell R&D agenda Policy agenda 1. Literature Study 4. Evaluation and Weighing of problems and opportunities 2. Consultation of national 5. Coupling of opportunities International experts and problems through creative sessions and consultations Website 2 9 3. Identification 6. Formation of Clusters 1 3 Problems and opportunities and connections 5 4 6 domains + disciplines 7 List--- P Lijst--- O --- 8 10 --- --- 7. Cluster descriptions --- ------ --- 8. Essays per cluster 10. Report with --- Recommendations for ------ --- 9. Knowledge and strategic Knowledge- and strategic --- Questions per cluster agenda --- OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting Result of a scan (1) PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT: 1 ATMOSPHERE Unknown consequences of climate change [31; 37; 43; 57; 61; 68; 72; 96]. FR36 ATMOSPHERE (Un) known consequences of emissions into the atmosphere 2 [31] CO2/CFK/Hydrogen/Methylhydrates/dust etc 3 ATMOSPHERE Persistent air pollution in urban areas [23; 179] 4 HYDROSPHERE Diffuse water pollution Pollution of the sea [31; 57; 72; 97; I18] 4a Part of LIST OF PROBLEMS HYDROSPHERE Global water shortage may give rise to political instability 5 /THREATS/[22; 23; 31;57;98] 6 HYDROSPHERE Flooding of rivers and sea [69] 7 HYDROSPHERE Little flexibility left in the use of (national) water supply in dense populated areas. GEO-SPHERE More vulnerability for natural disasters [57; 69; 101] in dense populated areas (earth 8 quakes, delta river plane flooding risk) 9 GEO-SPHERE Exhaustion of , Shortage of fossil fuels [22; 28; 29; 31; 41; 66] FR37 rare minerals 10 BIO-SPHERE Loss of live resources [22;31;40; 57;61;68;74] 11 BIO-SPHERE Disruption of fertility [111; I10; I11; I18] BIO-SPHERE Infectious diseases constitute a permanent threat (in particular dense populations [22; 12 WHO in 31; 57; 68; 150; 151]but also for crops, cattle etc, New health threats FR38 resistance increase of pathogens UK 146/147/148 SPACE Lack of space (related to urbanisation) [57; 69] Loss of space to draught or permanent 13 flooding (B9) and contamination 14 OUTER SPACE Exponentially expanding space debris [I9] 15 OUTER SPACE Asteroid impact [31] 16 OUTER SPACE Solar (and other) gamma bursts 17 OUTER SPACE Contact with extraterrestrial life. Education, research and development EDUCATION (general) An educational system that can keep up with the exponential increase in knowledge worldwide ,by data mining and increased attention on 31 languages and culture knowledge of upcoming economies on different school level 32 EDUCATION (general) Creativity in education [5; 121; 122;] 34 EDUCATION New educational and career models [5] 34a EDUCATION Open sources of education (UK158) 34b EDUCATION Part of LISTS OFInnovative learning environments (FORS 14 FINL) BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Open sources for innovation and government (2) [207] 35 OPPORTUNITIES BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Taking advantage of shifts in paradigms [35,156,157] search for 36 breakthroughs BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Data mining and electronic communication for improved exchange of 36a knowledge and discoveries (FORS 4 GR) BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Improving the governance of European R&D system 36b (FORS 7 FR)(FORS 21 FINL) BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Development of trans national innovation networks clusters (FORS30 36c GERM) BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Horizon scanning as a tool for identification of new issues for S&T (FORS 36d 40 NETH) BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Culture, religion as drivers in S&T development and appreciation of S&T 36e outcomes 37 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Threats as leitmotif for innovation. [208] 38 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Promising new fields of science [27; 31; 132-147] SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Environnemental technologies (FORS 16 FINL) – clean waters etc. 38a 39 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Converging technologies (CT). [194] 40 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CT to develop human cognition and communication Robotica/interconnectivity QUESTIONS OF Capital/Money ECONOMIC & SOCIAL Higher -SUSTAINABILITY Education/ Social Science & Applications: Research Psychology transport , Changing entertainment (National) policy ? Ambient etc Economy Nano technology Automation Robotics Converging Interconnectivity Labor Bio technologies Education Info Health Cogno Control & care ETHIC & Society Demography DEMOCRATIC- Orwell 1984 SUSTAINABILITY Energy Upcoming Economies Rare materials Competition QUESTIONS OF cooperation ECO- SUSTAINABILITY Foresight & Horizon scanning Netherlands Experience pilot Horizon scan till now: • Complex Output
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