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Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: Horizon Scanning and Analysis Published by Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: Horizon Scanning and Analysis A. Ertan, K. Floyd, P. Pernik, T. Stevens (Eds.) Published by Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: Horizon Scanning and Analysis A. Ertan, K. Floyd, P. Pernik, T. Stevens (Eds.) Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: Horizon Scanning and Analysis Copyright © 2020 by NATO CCDCOE Publications. All rights re- served. ISBN (print): 978-9916-9565-0-2 ISBN (pdf): 978-9916-9565-1-9 COPYRIGHT AND REPRINT PERMISSIONS No part of this publication may be reprinted, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence ([email protected]). This restriction does not apply to making digital or hard copies of this publication for internal use within NATO, or for personal or educational use when for non-profit or non-commercial purposes, providing that copies bear this notice and a full citation on the first page as follows: Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: Horizon Scanning and Analysis A. Ertan, K. Floyd, P. Pernik, T. Stevens (Eds.) 2020 © NATO CCDCOE Publications NATO CCDCOE Publications LEGAL NOTICE: This publication contains Filtri tee 12, 10132 Tallinn, Estonia the opinions of the respective authors only. They do not necessarily reflect the policy or Phone: +372 717 6800 the opinion of NATO CCDCOE, NATO, or any Fax: +372 717 6308 agency or any government. NATO CCDCOE E-mail: [email protected] may not be held responsible for any loss or Web: www.ccdcoe.org harm arising from the use of information contained in this book and is not responsi- ble for the content of the external sources, including external websites referenced in this publication. NATO COOPERATIVE CYBER DEFENCE CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE The NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE) is a NATO-accredited cyber defence hub focusing on research, training and exercises. It represents a community of 29 nations providing a 360-degree look at cyber defence, with expertise in technology, strategy, operations and law. The heart of the Centre is a diverse group of international experts from military, government, academia and industry backgrounds. The CCDCOE is home to the Tallinn Manual 2.0, the most comprehensive guide on how international law applies to cyber operations. The Centre organises the world’s largest and most complex international live-fire cyber defence exercise Locked Shields and hosts the International Conference on Cyber Conflict (CyCon), a unique annual event in Tallinn, joining key experts and decision-makers from the global cyber defence community. As the Department Head for Cyberspace Operations Training and Education, the CCDCOE is responsible for identifying and coordinating education and training solutions in the field of cyber defence operations for all NATO bodies across the Alliance. The Centre is staffed and financed by its member nations: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. NATO-accredited centres of excellence are not part of the NATO Command Structure. KING’S COLLEGE LONDON King’s College London is the fourth oldest university in England and provides world-class teaching in the heart of London to over 31,000 students from 150 countries. It has a distinguished reputation in law, the humanities, science— particularly health and medicine—and the social sciences, including international affairs. As King’s approaches its 200th anniversary in 2029, it continues to encourage the critical thinkers, problem-solvers and change- makers the world needs to address its diverse challenges. Its School of Security Studies is dedicated to the understanding of security issues in an increasingly complex and uncertain world. Harnessing the depth and breadth of expertise across the War Studies and Defence Studies Departments, we are one of the largest communities of scholars in the world engaged in the teaching and research of all aspects of conflict, war, security and defence. Through our multi-disciplinary approach, we promote and value the study of security from different perspectives and methodologies. Our distinctiveness derives from the long history of King’s College London as a university dedicated to the advancement of knowledge, learning and understanding of issues in the service of society. WILLIAM & MARY William & Mary, in Williamsburg, Virginia, carries on an educational tradition that traces back more than three centuries. As the second-oldest institution of higher education in the United States, William & Mary was founded by King William III and Queen Mary II of England as an American overseas campus representing the British Crown. Known as the alma mater of globally- renowned historical figures such as George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, James Monroe and John Marshall, William & Mary today is a leading force for international education and training ground for international specialists around the world. William & Mary boats more than 40 undergraduate programs and more than 40 graduate and professional degree programs, attracting students from 50 states and more than 60 foreign countries. The mission of the William & Mary Whole of Government Center of Excellence is to train a new generation of future leaders who have hands-on, practical experience working across the different organizational cultures. These leaders must harmonize to facilitate true interagency collaboration— long before finding themselves forced to deal with such issues during a foreign deployment or national emergency. The work of the Center is primarily focused on training, education, and research related to interagency collaboration, complex national security challenges, and other public policy problems for mid-career policy professionals and military officers. The Center also brings together leaders from all levels of government and the military for symposia, discussions, and projects to promote creative, collaborative solutions to emerging issues. Disclaimer The views expressed in this volume belong to the authors of the chapters. This publication is a product of the NATO CCDCOE. It does not necessarily reflect the policy or the opinion of the CCDCOE or NATO. The CCDCOE may not be held responsible for any loss or harm arising from the use of information contained in this publication and is not responsible for the content of the external sources, including external websites referenced in this publication. Digital or hard copies of this publication may be produced for internal use within NATO and for personal or educational use when for non-profit and non-commercial purpose, provided that copies bear a full citation. TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword 1 Ciaran Martin Introduction 4 PART I Cyberspace Adversaries and NATO’s Response 9 1 The Russian National Segment of the Internet as a Source of Structural Cyber Asymmetry Juha Kukkola 2 Russia’s Cyber Limitations in Personnel and 31 Innovation, Their Potential Impact on Future Operations, and How NATO and Its Members Can Respond Joe Cheravitch and Bilyana Lilly 3 Cyberspace Escalation: Ladders or Lattices? 60 Martin C. Libicki and Olesya Tkacheva PART II New Technologies and NATO’s Response 4 Securing 5G: A NATO’s Role in Collaborative Risk As- 74 sessment and Mitigation Luiz A. DaSilva, Jeffrey H. Reed, Sachin Shetty, Jerry Park, Duminda Wijesekera and Haining Wang 5 The Impact of New and Emerging Technologies on The 88 Cyber Threat Landscape and Their Implications for NATO Jacopo Bellasio and Erik Silfversten 6 Smart Cities, Cyber Warfare and Social Disorder 108 Simona R. Soare and Joe Burton PART III Warfighting, the Cyber Domain and NATO’s Response 7 Cyber Threats to NATO from a Multi-Domain 126 Perspective James Black and Alice Lynch 8 Cyber Capabilities and Multi-Domain Operations in 151 Future High-Intensity Warfare in 2030 Franz-Stefan Gady and Alexander Stronell PART IV Information Sharing, Cyber Threat Intelligence and Exercises 9 Repairing the Foundation: How Cyber Threat 178 Information Sharing Can Live Up to its Promise and Implications for NATO Michael Daniel and Joshua Kenway 10 Considerations for NATO in Reconciling Barriers to 194 Shared Cyber Threat Intelligence: A study of Japan, the UK and the US Chon Abraham and Sally Daultrey 11 Imagining and Anticipating Cyber Futures with Games 215 Andreas Haggman PART V Regulatory and Policy Responses to Cyber Security Challenges 12 Refocusing Export Control Regimes to Effectively 223 Address Cyber Security Concerns Cindy Whang 13 The Challenge of Networked Complexity to NATO’s 236 Digital Security Laurin B. Weissinger Biographies 253 FOREWORD Many things of profound historical importance happened in the Western alliance in 2016. Voters in the United Kingdom and the United States con- founded expectations by voting, respectively, to leave the European Union and elect a businessman with no previous governing experience as President. North Korea gave its most overt indications to date of the extent of its missile arsenal. Turkey saw off an attempted coup. International terrorism struck several European countries. More positively, for the purposes of human de- velopment, the proportion of the world connected to the internet passed the half-way point. Yet for the Western
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