4 IC DEVICE AND PACKAGING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
IC DEVICE TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
There are a variety of major manufacturing process technologies (Figure 4-1) used in design and fabrication of silicon-based integrated circuits (ICs). These include metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS), bipolar, and combined bipolar and complementary-MOS (BiCMOS). While silicon-based processing dominates in semiconductor manufacturing, gallium arsenide (GaAs), a compound- semiconductor material, is a niche alternative to silicon for some applications.
Marketshare IC (Percent of Total Dollars) Manufacturing 1997 Status Process 1997 2002 1970 1980 1990 Technologies (EST) (FCST) MOS (total): 35 52 75 ~69 ~87 PMOS Obsolete 31 5 — — —
NMOS/HMOS Virtually obsolete 2 37 10 <1 <1
CMOS Mainstream MOS technology, with continued 2 10 65 69 86 growth.
Bipolar (total): 65 48 24 ~12 ~10
ECL Fastest silicon-based process, but losing to 3 3 3 <1 <1 GaAs. Virtually obsolete.
TTL Virtually obsolete. 29 8 2 <1 —
S/LS TTL Virtually obsolete, having lost to MOS ASICs 7 13 4 1 <1 designs.
LINEAR Mainstream analog technology, but 26 24 15 11 8 competition from CMOS, and GaAs.
BiCMOS: Offers both MOS and bipolar advantages, but — — 1 18 5 slipping from high cost/complexity.
GaAs: Still niche technology, but future potential. — — <1 1 1
Source: ICE 11218W
Figure 4-1. Market Share Overview of IC Manufacturing Process Technologies
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Within MOS and bipolar manufacturing process technologies, device design variations have emerged and declined as IC applications and complexities have changed. Historically, back in 1970 bipolar was the major technology of choice; it was used for almost 66 percent of the total IC market. By 1980, that share had fallen to less than 50 percent. Last year, in 1997, bipolar ICs accounted for less than 14 percent of the IC dollar volume shipped.
Interestingly, while bipolar ICs rep- resent a small proportion of today’s
MOS IC market, they still represent nearly Logic half the ICs (i.e., unit volume) 24% shipped in 1997 (Figure 4-2). In addition, bipolar linear technology, Bipolar 1997 MOS* Analog which is the mainstream technology 57.3B 53% 41% Bipolar 47% (EST) for analog ICs, easily accounts for MOS the largest number of IC units Memory 13% shipped in all technology categories.
MOS BiCMOS offers IC designers both Micro 12% bipolar and CMOS advantages; ICs can be designed with the best Bipolar devices for each part of the circuit. Digital MOS/BiMOS 6% Analog However, the process complexity of 4% * Includes BiCMOS BiCMOS, which requires more Source: ICE 21390B wafer-fabrication processing steps,
Figure 4-2. MOS and Bipolar IC Unit Volumes has kept it from rising in the semi- conductor industry and is the reason behind its anticipated decline.
From 1997 to 2002, ICE forecasts that BiCMOS ICs will show a –3 percent cumulative-average annual growth rate (CAGR), declining from its current level at $18.9 billion to $16.1 billion or only five percent of the forecasted 2002 IC market. Specifically, this decline is a result of one manufac- turer, Intel’s plan to convert its Pentium and Pentium Pro microprocessors from BiCMOS to CMOS technology.
The emphasis in 1998 is still on CMOS technology, as it has been throughout the 1990s. ICE esti- mates that CMOS-based ICs will represent 69 percent of the final IC market for 1997 (Figure 4-3). By the year 2002, the market share forecast for CMOS ICs will likely increase to 86 percent of the total IC dollar volume.
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Other 6%
Bipolar 8%
Other 19%
Bipolar 1997 (EST) 2002 (FCST) 12% $127.2B $349.5B
CMOS 69% CMOS 86%
Source: ICE 20282E
Figure 4-3. CMOS IC Process Technology Dominance
No technology of the past has dominated the IC market like CMOS does today; it is the technol- ogy behind news-grabbing multi-million transistor ICs and the systems that use them. The wide- spread use of CMOS comes from the combination of high density (i.e., sub-micron circuit features), low power dissipation, and scalability. The latter gives a manufacturer the capability to reduce the size of a given IC design one or more times thereby enhancing manufacturing produc- tivity and corporate profitability.
The dominance of CMOS, at the expense of other IC design and process technologies, cannot be ignored (Figure 4-4). However, as it first did in 1996, in 1997 the market share of CMOS ICs dropped from its previous year value. This is not an indicator of declining CMOS applications, but is due to continuing lower prices for MOS memories, dynamic random access memories (DRAMs) in particular. It can also be attributed to a growing BiCMOS IC market, a result of the strength in demand for BiCMOS-based Pentium microprocessors, prior to Intel’s planned switch to CMOS. Clearly, the dominance of CMOS ICs will turn its market share up again in 1998 as it climbs to 86% by 2002.
While physics dictates that CMOS technology is inherently slower than the emitter-coupled logic (ECL) bipolar technology, for example, so much research and development has gone into CMOS design and process technologies, that today its speed and output drive capabilities rival that of some bipolar devices (Figure 4-5).
All IC manufacturing processes go through a bell-curve life cycle (Figure 4-6). What is interesting about CMOS technology is that it has been at the maturity stage since the mid-1980s with little movement. ICE expects that CMOS will still be in its maturity stage well into the twenty-first cen- tury. Through the end 1997, there was no new technology that showed the potential to dethrone CMOS as the mainstream IC process in the foreseeable future. Cost effectiveness, steadily increas- ing performance, and consistently high levels of investment in research and development by IC manufacturers will keep CMOS the mainstream technology throughout the 1990s and beyond.
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<1% <1% ECL <1% TTL <1% 1% 1% GaAs 100 AND OTHER 4% ECL 4% 8% BIPOLAR 1% <1% 90 TTL AND 12% 11% 11% 19% OTHER 1% 80 <1% <1% BIPOLAR 20% 70 ANALOG 22% 60 <1% PMOS 86% 69% 2% 24% 50 71%
PERCENT MOS 40 NMOS 41% 30
20 39%
10 CMOS BiCMOS 18% 12% 16% 5% 0 1982 1987 1996 2002 $10.2B $29.0B $117.9B $349.5B (FCST) 1997 $127.2B YEAR (EST) Source: ICE 12070V
Figure 4-4. 1982-2002 IC Technology Market Trends ($)
Logic Families Typical Commercial Parameter (0° to 70°C) TTL/ABT CMOS ECL LS ALS ABT FAST MG HC FACT LVC LCX 10KH 100K ECLinPS Lite Speed "OR"-Gate Prop. Delay (tPLH) (ns) 9 7 2.7 3 25 8 5 3.3 3.3 1 0.75 0.33 0.22 D Flip-Flop Toggle Rate (MHz) 33 45 200 125 4 45 160 200 200 330 400 1,000 2,800 Output Edge Rate (ns) 6 3 3 2 100 4 2 3.7 3.6 1 0.7 0.5 0.25 Power Consumption (per gate) Quiescent (mW) 5 1.2 0.005 12.5 0.0006 0.003 0.003 0.0001 0.0001 25 50 25 73 Operating (at 1 MHz) (mW) 5 1.2 1.0 12.5 0.04 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 25 50 25 73 Supply Voltage (V) 4.5 to 4.5 to 4.5 to 4.5 to 3 to 2 to 2 to 1.2 to 2 to Ð4.5 to Ð4.2 to Ð4.2 to Ð4.5 to 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 18 6 6 3.6 3.6 Ð5.5 Ð4.8 Ð5.5 Ð5.5 Output Drive (mA) 8 8 32/64 20 1 4 24 24 24 50-Ω load 50- Ω load 50-Ω load 50-Ω load DC Noise Margin High Input (%) 22 22 22 22 30 30 30 30 30 28 41 28/41 33 Low Input (%) 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31/31 33 Functional Device Types 190 210 50 110 125 103 80 35 27 64 44 48 40 Price/Gate (relative, 1 to 25 qty) 0.9 1 1.6 1 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 2 10 25 32 (LS) Motorola Low-Power Schottky TTL (FACT) Motorola Advanced CMOS (ALS) Texas Instruments Advanced Low-Power Schottky TTL (LCX) Motorola Low-Voltage CMOS (ABT) Philips Semiconductor Advanced BiCMOS (LVC) Philips Low-Voltage CMOS (FAST) Motorola Advanced Schottky TTL (10KH) Motorola 10KH Series ECL (MG) Motorola 14000 Series Metal-Gate CMOS (100K) National 100K Series ECL (HC) Motorola High-Speed Silicon-Gate CMOS (ECLinPS and ECLinPS Lite) Motorola Advanced ECL Source: Electronic Products/ICE 21745
Figure 4-5. Comparison of CMOS, Bipolar, and BiCMOS Logic Families
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CMOS
BIPOLAR BiCMOS ANALOG GaAs S/LS TTL
ECL
HMOS TTL Diamond SiGe PMOS NMOS
Introduction Growth Maturity Saturation Decline Obsolete
Source: ICE 16809J
Figure 4-6. Process Technology Lifecycle (1997)
MOS ICs
Figures 4-7 and 4-8 show the various MOS IC markets in dollars; evidence of the dominance and popularity of CMOS is clear in this data.
100 4% PMOS <1% <1% <1% <1% 90
80 40% NMOS 70
74% 60 >99% >99% >99% 50 PERCENT 40
30 60%
20 CMOS
10 22%
0 1982 1987 1996 2002 $5.5B $18.4B $83.9B $299.7B 1997 (FCST) $87.7B (EST) Year Source: ICE 12072V
Figure 4-7. 1982-2002 MOS (Excluding BiCMOS) Technology Market Trends
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2002 1987 - 2002 1987 1996 1997 Technology ($M, CAGR ($M) ($M) ($M, EST) FCST) (Percent)
NMOS and PMOS 7,350 475 445 150 Ð23
CMOS 11,050 83,395 87,270 299,591 25
Total 18,400 83,870 87,715 299,741 20
Source: ICE 16811N
Figure 4-8. MOS Technology Market Trends (1987-2002)
It is common industry knowledge that n-channel MOS (NMOS) replaced the slower and more power-hungry p-channel MOS (PMOS) technology in the 1970s, and CMOS supplanted NMOS in the 1980s. Today, as the data show, CMOS represents basically all of the total MOS market. Historically, CMOS became the technology of choice for MOS memory as memory density reached and surpassed 1 megabit (1M). In addition, the swelling complexity and density of other IC types like microprocessors and application specific ICs (ASICs) require the scalability and low power consumption benefits of CMOS. All 1M and denser DRAMs have thus far been produced using CMOS technology.
The inherent advantages of CMOS include:
• Design and process experience. • Available from numerous device manufacturers. • Lowest price per function compared to other technologies at the same geometry. • Low power consumption. • High scalability with lithography process evolution. • Relatively good noise immunity and soft error protection. • Low threshold bias sensitivity. • Design simplicity and relatively easy layout, especially for ASICs. • Capability for lower power analog and digital circuitry on the same chip.
ICE projects that CMOS will dominate the semiconductor industry well into the future. Indeed, CMOS seems to have the life it needs to continue evolving to meet the majority of IC performance demands. We have already seen a decline from conventional 5V power supply to 3.3V, and lower, on devices with 0.35 µm geometries and gate oxides less than 100Å (Figure 4-9). Now, with the industry moving to feature sizes of 0.25µm and below, a 3.3V power supply is becoming imprac- tical and designers are looking at 2.5V or even 1.8V (Figure 4-10).
The trend with CMOS supply voltage is a good illustration of the degree of synergy that has been required over the past few years between system designers and IC designers. In the transition from 5V to lower voltage systems, system designers have been using several voltages on the same printed circuit board (Figure 4-11); this trend peaked in 1996 and is now declining. Still, however,
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semiconductor manufacturer Lucent Technologies, for example, offers a standard cell library that allows the user to mix and match 5V and 3V cells on the same chip. Other companies that are con- tinuing to help bridge the 5V to lower-voltage gap with mixed-voltage ICs include Oki, Texas Instruments (TI), Toshiba, Atmel, and Symbios Logic.
160
140 Published Data Trend Line 120 ) Å 100
80
60
Gate Oxide Thickness ( 40
20
0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Gate Length (µm) Source: Intel 20284A
Figure 4-9. Gate Oxide Versus Gate Length
For 1998, the transition to voltage supplies other that 5V and the decline of mixed voltage systems continues. It is estimated that most of the 2002 IC market will be served by 3.3V; already all 64M DRAMs are designed for 3.3V power supply.
One of the drawbacks to moving to lower voltage levels is the difficulty in improving performance at the same rate as was accomplished using 5V. As shown in Figure 4-12, low-voltage technology performance is expected to double every four generations as opposed to every two generations when using 5V. Figure 4-13 looks at some of the driving factors affecting the move to low-voltage device technology.
Even in 1997, the first ICs based on ≤0.25µm CMOS technology were coming to market, about a year earlier than expected. Figure 4-14 compares several microprocessor-oriented 0.25µm processes. The routing index shown in the figure was calculated by MicroDesign Resources in an attempt to capture the circuit density of the processes. This index and the tabulated values sug- gest that IBM’s CMOS-6X and TI’s C07 offer the best circuit density, but IBM’s process is more costly because of its additional metal layer and local interconnect.
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6
5 Published Data
Trend Line 4
3
2 Operating Voltage (V)
1
0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Gate Length (µm)
Source: Intel 20285A
Figure 4-10. Gate Length Versus Operating Voltage
100
90
80
70 5V 60
50
40 3V
30 Percentage of Design Starts
20 5/3V 10 2.xV 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year Source: VLSI Technology 19179A
Figure 4-11. Transition from 5V to 3V Systems
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1.0 350 0.9 315 0.8 280 0.7 245 0.6 Speed Doubles Every 210 2 Generations 0.5 175
0.4 140
0.3 105 3.3V 2.2V 1.5V 0.2 5V 70
Gate Delay (Arbitrary Units) (Low Power) 3.3V Unloaded Inverter Delay (ps)
Speed Doubles Every 4 Generations (High Speed) 2.2V 0.1 35 2µm 1µm 0.5µm 0.25µm 0.13µm
Technology Generation Source: ISSCC94/UC Berkeley 19499
Figure 4-12. Low Power Speed Lag
Primary Feature Feature Driver Products Pros and Cons
Continued requirements for DRAMs Slowest voltage versus time higher integration density evolution SRAMs Integration density drives scaling Not a driver for revolutionary Device device technology changes Physics Scaling drives device physics Not a good test bed for non- Device physics limit operating device power reduction voltage, resulting in lower power techniques
High integration density circuits MPUs Basic cell performance may operating at maximum start to diminish; power limited performance bump against DSPs performance not compensated High package power constraint by scaling Performance ASICs Reduced power achieved by Increased performance will lower operating voltage or Full custom require non-device and non- design modifications scaling solutions: systems circuits
Battery life as key operator MCUs Fastest voltage versus time driver
May compromise integration DSPs Non-traditional technology driver density Portable Frequency Drives revolutionary device Products May not require peak Control technologies: GaAs, modified performance (frequency, CMOS, mixed technologies delays, MIPS) RF/Analog and Digital Lacks industry infrastructure and Some specialized products volume support base
Source: Motorola 20287A
Figure 4-13. Voltage Reduction Drivers
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Vendor AMD Digital Fujitsu IBM* IDT Intel TI Process Name CS-44 CMOS-7 CS-70 CMOS-6X CEMOS-10+ P856 C07 Example Product K6+ 21264+ n/a PPC 60x+ n/a Deschutes n/a First Production 2H97 1H98 2H97 2H97 1H98 3Q97 3Q97 Supply Voltage 2.5V 1.8V 2.5V 1.8V 2.5V 1.8V 1.8V I/O Voltage (Max) 3.3V 3.3V 3.3V 3.3V 3.3V 2.5V 3.3V Gate length (Drawn) 0.25µm 0.25µm 0.24µm <0.25µm 0.25µm <0.25µm 0.21µm Channel length (Effective) 0.18µm 0.16µm 0.18µm n/a 0.20µm n/a 0.17µm Gate Oxide Thickness n/a 45Å 55Å 40Å 65Å 45Å 40Å Number of Metal layers 5 metal 6 metal 5 metal 6 metal 4 metal 5 metal 5 metal Local Interconnect? yes no yes yes no no no Stacked Vias? yes yes yes yes yes yes yes M1 Contacted Pitch 0.88µm 0.84µm 0.9µm 0.7µm 0.94µm 0.64µm 0.85µm M2 Contacted Pitch 0.88µm 0.84µm 0.9µm 0.9µm 1.1µm 0.93µm 0.85µm M3 Contacted Pitch 0.88µm 1.7µm 0.9µm 0.9µm 1.1µm 0.93µm 0.85µm M4 Contacted Pitch 1.13µm 1.7µm 0.9µm 0.9µm 1.1µm 1.6µm 0.85µm M5 Contacted Pitch 3.0µm 1.7µm 2.7µm 0.9µm 1.4µm 2.6µm 2.5µm SRAM Cell Size n/a 11.5µm2 n/a 8.6µm2 11.2µm2 10.3µm2 10.5µm2 Routing Index 0.60µm2 1.1µm2 0.62µm2 0.53µm2 1.0µm2 0.67µm2 0.56µm2 Wafer Cost Index $4.0 $3.5 $4.0 $4.7 $3.6 $4.0 $4.1 * Motorola's PPC4 is similar to CMOS-6X but may have smaller gates. + indicates shrink version. Source: MicroDesign Resources 21747A
Figure 4-14. A Look at Some 0.25µm Processes
Gate Length The development of next-genera- Drawn 0.18µm tion 0.18µm CMOS technology is Effective 0.13µm already well underway with Inverter Delay 25ps/stage volume production of ICs with Power Consumption 11.6nW/µm 0.18µm geometries (drawn gate Supply Voltage 1.8V length) expected to start as early as Cutoff Frequency pFET 40GHz 1999, two years earlier than nFET 72GHz expected. TI released details of a Number of Metal Layers 6 0.18µm CMOS logic process in Gate Oxide Thickness 4nm June, 1997. Characteristics of the Other Features A new low-k insulating material, process are shown in Figure 4-15. low-resistivity metal, shallow trench isolation, and a sputtered TI believes potential applications tungsten-silicide step for the process include single-chip Source: EETimes/TI 22747 digital radios and optical commu- nications chips. Figure 4-15. A Peek at TI’s Next-Generation 0.18µm Process Technology
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While 0.1µm CMOS technology is not expected to be in widespread use before 2000, many large IC producers with advanced research labs are already releasing data on such devices. Figure 4-16 shows Fujitsu’s preliminary 0.1µm CMOS process parameters.
Parameter NMOS PMOS
Starting Material 10Ωcm p-type (100) 10Ωcm p-type (100)
Well Twin Well Twin Well
Isolation 350nm LOCOS 350nm LOCOS
Channel Implant B+, 40keV, 7 x 1012 As+, 180keV, 5 x 1012
Gate Oxide 3.9nm (800°C) 3.9nm (800°C)
Gate Stack Poly-Si 160nm + SiO2 50nm Poly-Si 160nm + SiO2 50nm + 13 + 14 Shallow Junction Implant As , 10keV, 4 x 10 BF2 , 5keV, 1 x 10 Spacer SiN 60nm SiN 60nm + 15 + 15 Deep Junction Implant As , 30keV, 3.2 x 10 BF2 , 20keV, 5 x 10 Anneal 850°C, 5 minutes 850°C, 5 minutes Source: Fujitsu/IEDM 19214A
Figure 4-16. Process Parameters of 0.1µm CMOS
Bipolar ICs
Figures 4-17 and 4-18 show the bipolar IC market in dollars. Although the bipolar segment is shrinking in IC market share (from an estimated 11 percent in 1997 to about eight percent in 2002), the total bipolar dollar volume is forecast to display a 13 percent CAGR from 1997 to 2002.
Bipolar IC technology has survived along side the dominance of CMOS IC technology to remain strong on two fronts: for analog ICs and for very high speed driver ICs. Both these product areas exploit the inherent capabilities of the bipolar transistor.
Bipolar technology remains popular in analog ICs because of the better gain and power handling capabilities of the bipolar transistor, as well as the fact that bipolar analog chips tend to be more rugged than their CMOS counterparts.
For digital applications, bipolar ICs still find design wins in very high speed applications, such as communications and mainframe computers. In other digital applications, on the other hand, bipolar technology has lost most of the advantages it once had over CMOS. Bipolar ICs consume a great deal of power per logic function, so when the highest absolute speed is not required, CMOS is the better solution. Figure 4-19 shows that the market for digital bipolar ICs is declining in each of the product areas listed.
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1%
100 5% 4% 10% ECL 12% 2% 7% 90 9%
80
TTL AND 70 42% OTHER
60
97% 50 89% 97% Percent 86% 89% 86% 40
30 56% ANALOG 56% 48% 20
10
0 1982 1987 1996 2002 $4.6B $10.6B $14.5B $31.0B 1997 (FCST) $15.4B (EST) Year Source: ICE 12073V
Figure 4-17. 1982-2002 Bipolar Technology Trends ($)
1987 Ð 2002 1987 1996 1997 2002 Technology CAGR ($M) ($M) ($M, EST) ($M, FCST) (Percent)
ECL 1,265 735 660 375 Ð8
TTL and Other 3,400 1,270 990 463 Ð12
Bipolar Analog 5,935 12,525 13,735 30,122 11
Total 10,600 14,530 15,385 30,960 7
Source: ICE 16812N
Figure 4-18. Bipolar Technology Market Trends (1987-2002)
For digital applications, inherently, bipolar ECL devices are very uniform, stable, and generate low noise. Also, ECL requires only a 1V swing in 3-4ns compared with a typical bipolar transis- tor-transistor logic (TTL) chip that requires a 5V swing in the same time frame. ECL-based ICs include gate array ASICs, standard and special purpose logic devices, and static random access memory (SRAM) ICs (Figure 4-20).
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1996 - 2002 1996 1997 2002 Product CAGR ($M) ($M, EST) ($M, FCST) (Percent)
General Purpose Logic 895 785 438 Ð11 Special Purpose Logic 365 230 90 Ð21 Gate Array/Std. Cell 510 460 245 Ð12 MPU/MCU/MPR 10 5 — Ð100 FPL 65 40 11 Ð26 Memory 160 130 54 Ð17 Total 2,005 1,650 838 Ð14
Source: ICE 18881H
Figure 4-19. Digital Bipolar IC Market
Logic* 15% Memory 1992 19% $1,320M ASIC 66%
Memory Memory 15% 13% 1997 2002 ASIC (EST) ASIC (FCST) 49% Logic* $660M 50% Logic* $375M 35% 38%
*Includes General and Special Purpose Logic Source: ICE 21085D
Figure 4-20. ECL IC Market by Product Group
Japanese semiconductor manufacturers have traditionally had the largest ECL IC market share primarily because of their emphasis on mainframe computers. However, computer manufactur- ers NEC and Fujitsu have revamped their mainframe lines to use CMOS ICs, and Hitachi has moved to BiCMOS parts.
The movement to using other technologies besides ECL for high-speed systems is especially dev- astating to the large military ECL IC market. The lackluster military IC market coupled with the increasing use of CMOS, GaAs, and BiCMOS ICs will heavily contribute to the declining ECL IC industry through the end of the 1990s.
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BiCMOS ICs
BiCMOS technology has long been thought of as a high-speed replacement for pure CMOS because it offers a performance edge by implementing both CMOS and bipolar transistors on the same chip. Through the selective use of CMOS and bipolar circuitry, high-performance paths can be created with bipolar, while lower-performance, high-density paths can be created with CMOS gates. More recently though, the growth in demand for mixed-signal ICs has been driving greater use of BiCMOS technology.
BiCMOS architecture that consists of a small percentage of bipolar transistors is called CMOS- based. For this architecture, non-critical paths on the majority of the chip consist of CMOS gates, while bipolar transistors are used mainly for driving long metal lines and as output buffers for critical paths. This is the most common type of BiCMOS technology.
Bipolar-based BiCMOS IC architecture consists of predominantly bipolar transistors with CMOS transistors available for the implementation of large storage elements. The resulting IC offers excellent performance and density with a high level of programmability.
The main disadvantage of BiCMOS is the manufacturing cost penalty created by the complicated process of building both bipolar and MOS transistors into a single IC. It is partly because of this increased complexity that Intel is moving its Pentium microprocessor (MPU) series from a 20- mask BiCMOS process to a 16-mask pure CMOS process technology. Another reason stated by the company is that while bipolar transistors provide some performance boost at 3.3V, the gain is insignificant at 2.5V and below.
Because the performance advantage of BiCMOS decreases with lower voltage levels, the future of BiCMOS in the systems of the late-1990s depends on the ability to economically produce spe- cialized BiCMOS processes. For example, Motorola has a specialized BiCMOS process that tar- gets ASIC, very high-speed, and low-voltage applications. The supply voltage versus 0.5µm BiCMOS manufacturing complexity issues will especially challenge the BiCMOS producers in the late-1990s.
As shown in Figure 4-21, the BiCMOS market was led by microcomponent (i.e., Pentium like) products in 1997. The total BiCMOS IC market is expected to decline at a three percent average annual rate from 1997-2002, and represent only five percent of the total IC market in 2002. This decline is due to Intel’s plan to move its advanced microprocessor products from BiCMOS to CMOS in the late 1990s. Intel’s first pure-CMOS Pentiums started to appear in 1997, as the com- pany moved into a 0.28µm process. In summary, the timing and completeness of Intel’s conver- sion will have a tremendous impact on the total BiCMOS market figures in the late 1990s.
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Standard Gate Arrays Standard 2% Logic Logic SRAMs 1% 3% Other 2% Gate Other Microcomponents 1% Standard <1% 6% Arrays 4% Analog/ Cell 3% SRAMs Mixed Signal 6% 15% Analog/ 1997 (EST) 2002 (FCST) Mixed Signal $23,300M Standard Cell $16,100M 63% 17% Microcomponents 77%
Source: ICE 13643S
Figure 4-21. Worldwide BiCMOS Market
Besides the Pentium-dominated microcomponent area, the analog-mixed-signal IC segment is a strong market for BiCMOS ICs. In fact, by the turn of the century, analog-mixed-signal ICs are expected to take over the top market share position in the BiCMOS market. BiCMOS is also pop- ular for very high-speed SRAMs, with the access times of some BiCMOS SRAMs stated to be half those of most CMOS SRAMs of the same density. Furthermore, ECL SRAMs can’t match BiCMOS densities.
As shown in Figure 4-22, Intel is by far the largest producer of BiCMOS ICs. Two European semi- conductor manufacturers—Philips and SGS-Thomson—are also heavily involved in BiCMOS technology, with the focus of both being on analog and mixed-signal ICs. Motorola’s BiCMOS ICs encompass a variety of products, including memory, ASIC, logic, and analog ICs.
Company 1996 Sales ($M)
Intel 14,160 SGS-Thomson 1,390 Philips 1,100 Texas Instruments* 370 Motorola 350 Fujitsu 160 NEC 160 Analog Devices 130 Alcatel-Mietec 110 Others 950 Total 18,880 *Acquired the major BiCMOS IC supplier, Silicon Systems, in 1996. Source: ICE 21084D
Figure 4-22. Major BiCMOS IC Suppliers
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The following are the past-year’s significant BiCMOS business and technology announcements:
• Exponential Technology canceled its PowerPC-compatible X704 BiCMOS microprocessor program and closed its main office in San Jose. The super high performance chip design was complete and ready to begin shipments at speeds of 410MHz, but, the primary customer for the part, Apple Computer, withdrew its plans to ship X704-based systems. Apple reportedly decided to stick with the multisourced PowerPC microprocessor that fits into standard sys- tems rather than modifying its products to deal with the extra heat and unique socket of the single-sourced Exponential microprocessor.
• Micro Linear announced the addition of four new products to its family of 10Base-FL Ethernet transceiver products that are implemented in an advanced BiCMOS process. The company claims that the use of a BiCMOS process results in a reduction in power dissipa- tion of up to 35 percent.
• NEC introduced four 200MHz 4M synchronous SRAMs implemented in a 0.35µm BiCMOS process. The SRAMs are intended for use as cache memory for reduced instruction set com- puting (RISC) processors in high-end workstations.
Gallium-Arsenide ICs
Gallium-arsenide (GaAs) compound-semiconductor material has an inherent speed advantage over silicon. However, for years the relative high cost of GaAs wafers, problems with breakage during processing (the material is very brittle), and the higher defect density with the corre- sponding lower device yields have kept market penetration lower than anticipated. Today, due mainly to the booming telecommunications end-use market over the past several years, GaAs IC manufacturers are experiencing healthy double digit market growth.
GaAs technology continues to advance by shrinking device geometries and using more industry standard low-cost packaging, and through GaAs IC manufacturers developing a better under- standing of how to work with this compound semiconductor material. All these factor continue to help make GaAs ICs approach cost competitiveness with silicon.
The total GaAs market (excluding development funding) is forecast to have a 1997-2002 CAGR of 27 percent, growing to about $2.7 billion in 2002 (Figure 4-23). As also shown in the figure, growth in the demand for analog GaAs ICs is expected to significantly outpace that for digital GaAs ICs into the next century, as it has over the past years. Analog ICs represented about 72 percent of the GaAs IC market in 1997, and that share is expected to increase to 83 percent by 2002.
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2,800 2,765
2,600 Analog IC Sales 2,400