4 IC DEVICE AND PACKAGING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS IC DEVICE TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW There are a variety of major manufacturing process technologies (Figure 4-1) used in design and fabrication of silicon-based integrated circuits (ICs). These include metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS), bipolar, and combined bipolar and complementary-MOS (BiCMOS). While silicon-based processing dominates in semiconductor manufacturing, gallium arsenide (GaAs), a compound- semiconductor material, is a niche alternative to silicon for some applications. Marketshare IC (Percent of Total Dollars) Manufacturing 1997 Status Process 1997 2002 1970 1980 1990 Technologies (EST) (FCST) MOS (total): 35 52 75 ~69 ~87 PMOS Obsolete 31 5 — — — NMOS/HMOS Virtually obsolete 2 37 10 <1 <1 CMOS Mainstream MOS technology, with continued 2 10 65 69 86 growth. Bipolar (total): 65 48 24 ~12 ~10 ECL Fastest silicon-based process, but losing to 3 3 3 <1 <1 GaAs. Virtually obsolete. TTL Virtually obsolete. 29 8 2 <1 — S/LS TTL Virtually obsolete, having lost to MOS ASICs 7 13 4 1 <1 designs. LINEAR Mainstream analog technology, but 26 24 15 11 8 competition from CMOS, and GaAs. BiCMOS: Offers both MOS and bipolar advantages, but — — 1 18 5 slipping from high cost/complexity. GaAs: Still niche technology, but future potential. — — <1 1 1 Source: ICE 11218W Figure 4-1. Market Share Overview of IC Manufacturing Process Technologies INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 4-1 IC Device and Packaging Technology Trends Within MOS and bipolar manufacturing process technologies, device design variations have emerged and declined as IC applications and complexities have changed. Historically, back in 1970 bipolar was the major technology of choice; it was used for almost 66 percent of the total IC market. By 1980, that share had fallen to less than 50 percent. Last year, in 1997, bipolar ICs accounted for less than 14 percent of the IC dollar volume shipped. Interestingly, while bipolar ICs rep- resent a small proportion of today’s MOS IC market, they still represent nearly Logic half the ICs (i.e., unit volume) 24% shipped in 1997 (Figure 4-2). In addition, bipolar linear technology, Bipolar 1997 MOS* Analog which is the mainstream technology 57.3B 53% 41% Bipolar 47% (EST) for analog ICs, easily accounts for MOS the largest number of IC units Memory 13% shipped in all technology categories. MOS BiCMOS offers IC designers both Micro 12% bipolar and CMOS advantages; ICs can be designed with the best Bipolar devices for each part of the circuit. Digital MOS/BiMOS 6% Analog However, the process complexity of 4% * Includes BiCMOS BiCMOS, which requires more Source: ICE 21390B wafer-fabrication processing steps, Figure 4-2. MOS and Bipolar IC Unit Volumes has kept it from rising in the semi- conductor industry and is the reason behind its anticipated decline. From 1997 to 2002, ICE forecasts that BiCMOS ICs will show a –3 percent cumulative-average annual growth rate (CAGR), declining from its current level at $18.9 billion to $16.1 billion or only five percent of the forecasted 2002 IC market. Specifically, this decline is a result of one manufac- turer, Intel’s plan to convert its Pentium and Pentium Pro microprocessors from BiCMOS to CMOS technology. The emphasis in 1998 is still on CMOS technology, as it has been throughout the 1990s. ICE esti- mates that CMOS-based ICs will represent 69 percent of the final IC market for 1997 (Figure 4-3). By the year 2002, the market share forecast for CMOS ICs will likely increase to 86 percent of the total IC dollar volume. 4-2 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION IC Device and Packaging Technology Trends Other 6% Bipolar 8% Other 19% Bipolar 1997 (EST) 2002 (FCST) 12% $127.2B $349.5B CMOS 69% CMOS 86% Source: ICE 20282E Figure 4-3. CMOS IC Process Technology Dominance No technology of the past has dominated the IC market like CMOS does today; it is the technol- ogy behind news-grabbing multi-million transistor ICs and the systems that use them. The wide- spread use of CMOS comes from the combination of high density (i.e., sub-micron circuit features), low power dissipation, and scalability. The latter gives a manufacturer the capability to reduce the size of a given IC design one or more times thereby enhancing manufacturing produc- tivity and corporate profitability. The dominance of CMOS, at the expense of other IC design and process technologies, cannot be ignored (Figure 4-4). However, as it first did in 1996, in 1997 the market share of CMOS ICs dropped from its previous year value. This is not an indicator of declining CMOS applications, but is due to continuing lower prices for MOS memories, dynamic random access memories (DRAMs) in particular. It can also be attributed to a growing BiCMOS IC market, a result of the strength in demand for BiCMOS-based Pentium microprocessors, prior to Intel’s planned switch to CMOS. Clearly, the dominance of CMOS ICs will turn its market share up again in 1998 as it climbs to 86% by 2002. While physics dictates that CMOS technology is inherently slower than the emitter-coupled logic (ECL) bipolar technology, for example, so much research and development has gone into CMOS design and process technologies, that today its speed and output drive capabilities rival that of some bipolar devices (Figure 4-5). All IC manufacturing processes go through a bell-curve life cycle (Figure 4-6). What is interesting about CMOS technology is that it has been at the maturity stage since the mid-1980s with little movement. ICE expects that CMOS will still be in its maturity stage well into the twenty-first cen- tury. Through the end 1997, there was no new technology that showed the potential to dethrone CMOS as the mainstream IC process in the foreseeable future. Cost effectiveness, steadily increas- ing performance, and consistently high levels of investment in research and development by IC manufacturers will keep CMOS the mainstream technology throughout the 1990s and beyond. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 4-3 IC Device and Packaging Technology Trends <1% <1% ECL <1% TTL <1% 1% 1% GaAs 100 AND OTHER 4% ECL 4% 8% BIPOLAR 1% <1% 90 TTL AND 12% 11% 11% 19% OTHER 1% 80 <1% <1% BIPOLAR 20% 70 ANALOG 22% 60 <1% PMOS 86% 69% 2% 24% 50 71% PERCENT MOS 40 NMOS 41% 30 20 39% 10 CMOS BiCMOS 18% 12% 16% 5% 0 1982 1987 1996 2002 $10.2B $29.0B $117.9B $349.5B (FCST) 1997 $127.2B YEAR (EST) Source: ICE 12070V Figure 4-4. 1982-2002 IC Technology Market Trends ($) Logic Families Typical Commercial Parameter (0° to 70°C) TTL/ABT CMOS ECL LS ALS ABT FAST MG HC FACT LVC LCX 10KH 100K ECLinPS Lite Speed "OR"-Gate Prop. Delay (tPLH) (ns) 9 7 2.7 3 25 8 5 3.3 3.3 1 0.75 0.33 0.22 D Flip-Flop Toggle Rate (MHz) 33 45 200 125 4 45 160 200 200 330 400 1,000 2,800 Output Edge Rate (ns) 6 3 3 2 100 4 2 3.7 3.6 1 0.7 0.5 0.25 Power Consumption (per gate) Quiescent (mW) 5 1.2 0.005 12.5 0.0006 0.003 0.003 0.0001 0.0001 25 50 25 73 Operating (at 1 MHz) (mW) 5 1.2 1.0 12.5 0.04 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 25 50 25 73 Supply Voltage (V) 4.5 to 4.5 to 4.5 to 4.5 to 3 to 2 to 2 to 1.2 to 2 to –4.5 to –4.2 to –4.2 to –4.5 to 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 18 6 6 3.6 3.6 –5.5 –4.8 –5.5 –5.5 Output Drive (mA) 8 8 32/64 20 1 4 24 24 24 50-Ω load 50- Ω load 50-Ω load 50-Ω load DC Noise Margin High Input (%) 22 22 22 22 30 30 30 30 30 28 41 28/41 33 Low Input (%) 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31/31 33 Functional Device Types 190 210 50 110 125 103 80 35 27 64 44 48 40 Price/Gate (relative, 1 to 25 qty) 0.9 1 1.6 1 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 2 10 25 32 (LS) Motorola Low-Power Schottky TTL (FACT) Motorola Advanced CMOS (ALS) Texas Instruments Advanced Low-Power Schottky TTL (LCX) Motorola Low-Voltage CMOS (ABT) Philips Semiconductor Advanced BiCMOS (LVC) Philips Low-Voltage CMOS (FAST) Motorola Advanced Schottky TTL (10KH) Motorola 10KH Series ECL (MG) Motorola 14000 Series Metal-Gate CMOS (100K) National 100K Series ECL (HC) Motorola High-Speed Silicon-Gate CMOS (ECLinPS and ECLinPS Lite) Motorola Advanced ECL Source: Electronic Products/ICE 21745 Figure 4-5. Comparison of CMOS, Bipolar, and BiCMOS Logic Families 4-4 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION IC Device and Packaging Technology Trends CMOS BIPOLAR BiCMOS ANALOG GaAs S/LS TTL ECL HMOS TTL Diamond SiGe PMOS NMOS Introduction Growth Maturity Saturation Decline Obsolete Source: ICE 16809J Figure 4-6. Process Technology Lifecycle (1997) MOS ICs Figures 4-7 and 4-8 show the various MOS IC markets in dollars; evidence of the dominance and popularity of CMOS is clear in this data. 100 4% PMOS <1% <1% <1% <1% 90 80 40% NMOS 70 74% 60 >99% >99% >99% 50 PERCENT 40 30 60% 20 CMOS 10 22% 0 1982 1987 1996 2002 $5.5B $18.4B $83.9B $299.7B 1997 (FCST) $87.7B (EST) Year Source: ICE 12072V Figure 4-7.