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A RAND Initiative to Restore the Role of Facts and Analysis in Public Life NEWS IN A DIGITAL AGE Comparing the Presentation of News Information over Time and Across Media Platforms JENNIFER KAVANAGH I WILLIAM MARCELLINO I JONATHAN S. BLAKE SHAWN SMITH I STEVEN DAVENPORT I MAHLET G. TEBEKA For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2960 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0231-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Pete Soriano. Cover image: Adobe Stock/terovesalainen. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The media ecosystem in the United States has experienced rapid techno- logical changes over the past 30 years that have affected the way news is produced, consumed, and disseminated. This internally funded report seeks to assess empirically whether and how presentation of news in newspapers, television, and online has changed in light of these devel- opments. We use RAND-Lex, a suite of RAND Corporation tools that combine text analysis and machine learning, to explore changes in news presentation over time and across platforms. It considers the implications of observed changes and of areas in which reporting has stayed the same. The report will be of interest to journalists, those who study news media and mass communication, and consumers who want to understand more about the media ecosystem and how it has evolved. This report is one of a series focused on the topic of Truth Decay, defined as the diminishing role that facts, data, and analysis play in today’s political and civil discourse. The original report, Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life by Jennifer Kavanagh and Michael D. Rich, was published in January 2018 and laid out a research agenda for studying and developing solutions to the Truth Decay challenge. RAND Ventures RAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world iii iv News in a Digital Age safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is non- profit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND Ventures is a vehicle for investing in policy solutions. Philanthropic contributions support our ability to take the long view, tackle tough and often-controversial topics, and share our findings in innovative and compelling ways. RAND’s research findings and recommendations are based on data and evidence, and therefore do not necessarily reflect the policy preferences or interests of its clients, donors, or supporters. Funding for this venture was provided by gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. For more information about RAND Ventures, visit www.rand.org/giving/ventures. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Tables .............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 The Changing Media Ecosystem ................................................ 4 News Presentation in a Digital Age: Past Research ............................ 9 Limitations of Existing Work and Contributions of This Report ...........15 Objective of This Report .........................................................17 Outline of This Report ..........................................................19 CHAPTER TWO Data and Methodology .........................................................21 Data Collection................................................................... 22 Preparing the Data for Analysis .................................................29 Periodization and Comparisons .................................................33 Analysis .............................................................................35 CHAPTER THREE Changes in Newspaper Reporting over Time ..............................49 Results ............................................................................ 50 Discussion ..........................................................................67 v vi News in a Digital Age CHAPTER FOUR Differences in Television News ................................................69 Results ..............................................................................70 Discussion ..........................................................................93 CHAPTER FIVE Comparing Print and Online Journalism ................................. 97 Results ............................................................................. 98 Discussion ........................................................................ 117 CHAPTER SIX Summary and Conclusions .................................................. 119 Print Journalism: Modest Shifts Toward More-Subjective Reporting .... 121 Television News: Stronger Shifts to Subjectivity, Conversation, and Argument ................................................................... 121 Online Journalism: Toward a Subjective Kind of Advocacy ............... 123 Implications for Truth Decay ................................................. 124 Limitations ....................................................................... 131 Next Steps: What Other Research Is Needed? .............................. 133 APPENDIXES A. About RAND-Lex .......................................................... 139 B. Graphs from Subsample Analyses ...................................... 151 C. ANOVA Results............................................................. 165 References ....................................................................... 207 About the Authors ............................................................. 219 Figures 2.1. Corpus-Level ANOVA View ...................................... 42 2.2. Tagged-Text View ................................................... 44 3.1. Significant Linguistic Factors by Group: Newspapers Pre- Versus Post-2000 (Full Sample) ....................................52 3.2. Detailed Metrics for Newspaper Analysis (Full Sample) ........53 3.3. Significant Linguistic Factors by Group: National Newspapers .......................................................... 60 3.4. Detailed Metrics for Newspaper Analysis (National Newspaper Sample) ..................................................61 4.1. Significant Linguistic Factors by Group: Broadcast Television .............................................................70 4.2. Detailed Metrics for Broadcast Television Analysis .............71 4.3. Significant Linguistic Factors by Group: Broadcast Versus Cable ..................................................................81 4.4. Detailed Metrics: Broadcast Versus Prime-Time Cable Programming Analysis ..............................................82 5.1. Significant Linguistic Factors by Group: Newspapers Versus Online Journalism (Full Sample) ......................... 99 5.2. Detailed Metrics: Newspapers Versus Online Journalism Analysis ............................................................. 100 5.3. Significant Linguistic Factors by Group: Newspapers Versus Online Journalism (Reduced Sample) .................. 112 5.4. Detailed Metrics: National Newspapers and Reduced Online Sample ..................................................... 113 B.1. New York Times, Pre- and Post-2000 Comparison ............ 152 B.2. Washington Post, Pre- and Post-2000 Comparison ............. 154 B.3. St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Pre- and Post-2000 Comparison ..... 155 B.4. Online Versus Newspaper Journalism Analysis Comparison ........................................................ 161 vii Tables S.1. Data Sets ..............................................................xv 2.1. Readership for Online News Outlets ............................. 27 2.2. Details of Online Journalism Data Collection and Validation Process .................................................. 30 2.3. Data Sets ..............................................................31 2.4.
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