Additional Financing for the Heilongjiang Green Urban and Economic Revitalization Project (RRP PRC 49021-004) FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Introduction and Methodology 1. The financial analysis for the current project was undertaken, and updated for the additional financing, in accordance with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) guidelines. 1 A financial analysis was conducted for all revenue-generating subcomponents—i.e., those concerning water supply, wastewater management, and district heating (Table 1)—to test if their financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is above the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). A tariff and affordability assessment was carried out. Additionally, a financial sustainability analysis was done to assess the capacity of the project cities of Hegang, Jixi, Qitaihe, and Shuangyashan to service debt, meet operation and maintenance costs as well as recurring costs, and provide counterpart funding as required by the project. Table 1: Revenue-Generating Subcomponents Output 3: Key infrastructure and facilities for SMEs in non-coal industrial parks in project cities constructed 1. Hegang Luobei County high-tech graphite-based materials and e-mobility industrial park—wastewater treatment plant and SME support facilities 2. Jixi wastewater treatment plant and discharge infrastructure in Jiguan District Industrial Park Output 5: Integrated urban infrastructure and services in project cities improved 1. Hegang district heating system energy efficiency improvements 2. Jixi No. 3 water treatment plant upgrade and expansion 3. Qitaihe water treatment plant upgrade and water supply pipe replacement and expansion SMEs = small and medium-sized enterprises. Source: Asian Development Bank. 2. Key assumptions for the financial analysis are (i) physical contingencies at 4% of base cost, (ii) annual project operating costs estimated based on reported operating costs of existing facilities plus incremental operating costs by component, (iii) recurrent costs associated with capital investments based on a percentage of the nominal price value of fixed assets before depreciation, and (iv) domestic and international inflation based on World Bank data for 2014 and Asian Development Outlook 2016 (Table 2). For the purposes of calculating the WACCs, the cost of equity was determined to be 5.5% based on a risk-free rate of 3.5% and an assumed risk premium of 2%. The corporate tax rate is 25.0%. Table 2: Inflation Assumptions (%) Item 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022+ International rate of price inflationa 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 Domestic cost escalation factorsb 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 a World Bank Manufacturer’s Unit Value (MUV) Index, July 2014. b ADB. 2016. Asian Development Outlook 2016 Update: Meeting the Low-Carbon Growth Challenge. Highlights. Manila. Source: Asian Development Bank. B. Financial Viability Analysis 3. The financial viability analysis of the revenue-generating subcomponents was recalculated to test whether their FIRR remain greater than the updated WACC, and if a positive financial net present value can be obtained using the WACC as the discount factor, and how the 1 ADB. 2014. Financial Management, Cost Estimates, Financial Analysis, and Financial Performance Indicators. Operations Manual. OM G2/BP. Manila; ADB. 2005. Financial Management and Analysis of Projects. Manila; ADB. 2009. Financial Due Diligence: A Methodology Note. Manila. 2 FIRRs respond under sensitivity tests. Sensitivity tests examined the robustness of the FIRRs to changes in the underlying parameters, i.e., increases in capital and operating costs, decrease in revenues, or delays in implementation. Technical data and costs were obtained from the draft feasibility study report to form the basis of the financial analysis and the FIRR calculation. The FIRRs of the revenue-generating subcomponents were calculated at 2.96% (Hegang Luobei wastewater treatment plant [WWTP]), 3.43% (Hegang district heating), 2.67% (Jixi WWTP), 7.44% (Jixi water supply), and 3.45% (Qitaihe water supply), exceeding the corresponding WACCs of 0.86% (Hegang Luobei WWTP), 2.01% (Hegang district heating), 1.50% (Jixi WWTP), 1.17% (Jixi water supply), and 2.16% (Qitaihe water supply). Sensitivity analysis shows that the FIRRs remain robust under a 10% increase in the investment cost, a 10% increase in operation and maintenance costs, a 10% decrease in revenues, and a 1-year implementation delay. 4. The five subcomponents will generate revenue through tariffs, so the FIRRs were calculated by assuming tariffs based on reasonable market rates and/or willingness to pay—CNY9.5 per cubic meter (m3) for the Hegang Luobei WWTP, CNY26.0 per square meter (m2) for Hegang district heating, CNY2.30 per m3 for the Jixi WWTP, CNY2.5 per m3 for Jixi water supply, and CNY4.5 per m3 for Qitaihe water supply. 5. The FIRR and sensitivity analysis are summarized in Table 3. Table 3: Financial Internal Rate of Return and Sensitivity Analysis (CNY million) Opera- Capital ting Cost Cost Revenue 1 Year Subcomponent Tariff Indicator Base +10% +10% –10% Delay WACC 1. Hegang Luobei County CNY FIRR (%) 2.96 1.91 1.66 0.89 1.96 0.86% high-tech graphite- 9.5/m3 based materials and e- FNPV 23.9 12.8 8.9 0.4 12.6 mobility industrial park—wastewater treatment plant and SME support facilities 2. Hegang district heating CNY FIRR (%) 3.43 2.42 2.60 2.31 2.45 2.01% system energy 26.0/m2 efficiency improvements FNPV 23.6 7.2 9.5 4.8 7.3 3. Jixi wastewater CNY FIRR (%) 2.67 1.63 1.71 1.57 1.62 1.50% treatment plant and 2.3/m3 discharge infrastructure FNPV 12.8 1.5 2.2 0.7 1.3 in Jiguan District Industrial Park 4. Jixi No. 3 water CNY FIRR (%) 7.44 6.17 5.76 5.73 6.09 1.17% treatment plant upgrade 2.5/m3 and expansion FNPV 60.8 52.0 43.1 43.0 49.0 5. Qitaihe water treatment CNY FIRR (%) 3.45 2.42 2.21 2.31 2.37 2.16% plant upgrade and water 4.5/m3 supply pipe replacement FNPV 79.4 16.9 3.0 8.7 12.8 and expansion CNY = Chinese yuan, FIRR = financial internal rate of return, FNPV = financial net present value, m2 = square meter, m3 = cubic meter, WACC = weighted average cost of capital. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. C. Tariffs and Affordability 6. A tariff and affordability analysis was carried out for the three revenue-generating subcomponents that serve residents in Hegang (district heating), and Jixi and Qitaihe (water 3 supply). It was not carried out for the other two subcomponents serving companies in industrial parks. The analysis included determining the percentage of household income to meet the estimated monthly bills for heating and water consumption. The analysis involves comparing the average per capita disposable income of the consumers with their water and heating consumption. The tariff is affordable if it does not exceed 5% of per capita income. 7. From 2011 to 2015, the per capita disposable income of the urban resident population increased by an annual average of 9.1% (from CNY13,005 to CNY20,132) in Hegang, by 9.4% (from CNY12,044 to CNY18,891) in Jixi, and by 6.7% (from CNY15,002 to CNY20,776) in Qitaihe. From 2015, the per capita disposable income is estimated to grow by 9% on average in Hegang and Jixi, and by 7% on average in Qitaihe. 8. In Hegang, the average housing area per capita grew by an annual 4.3% between 2011 and 2015, from 22.83 m2 to 27.07 m2, based on historic growth rates. Its district heating tariff for housing is CNY26.00/m2, and is assumed to stay at that level for the period considered in the analysis. In Jixi, on average, urban water consumption per capita was 148 liters per day (l/d) in 2012 and is expected to increase by 32 l/d between 2012 and 2022, and by 20 l/d from 2022 to 2030, with no further increase expected after 2030. The assumed average water tariff is CNY2.50 per m3 per ton for residents during the project implementation period. In Qitaihe, average urban water consumption per capita was 150 l/d in 2015, with an expected increase to 160 l/d by 2020 and to 180 l/d by 2030, and no further increase after 2030. The water tariff assumed is CNY3.0/m3 per ton for residents during the project implementation period. 9. Table 4 shows that the tariffs for district heating and water consumption are affordable because they do not exceed 5% of per capita incomes. Table 4: Tariffs for and Affordability of District Heating and Water Supply Item 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 Hegang (district heating: CNY26.0/m2) Average income CNY 22,444.00 24,464.00 26,666.00 29,066.00 44,722.00 68,810.00 105,873.00 Heating CNY 745.86 768.23 791.28 815.02 1,043.17 1,335.18 1,474.15 consumption % 3.32 3.14 2.97 2.80 2.33 1.94 1.39 Jixi (water supply: CNY2.5/m3 per ton) Average income CNY 23,919.00 26,072.00 28,418.00 30,976.00 47,660.00 73,330.00 112,828.00 Water CNY 148.94 151.88 154.88 157.94 188.65 222.47 245.62 consumption % 0.62 0.58 0.55 0.51 0.40 0.30 0.22 Qitaihe (water supply: CNY3.0/m3 per ton) Average income CNY 23,786.00 25,451.00 27,233.00 29,139.00 40,870.00 57,322.00 80,397.00 Water CNY 168.55 170.74 172.95 175.20 205.17 240.26 265.27 consumption % 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.50 0.42 0.33 CNY = Chinese yuan, m2 = square meter, m3 = cubic meter.