Citrus Citrus

Contenu publiéparl’Observatoire desMarchésduCIRAD−Toutereproduction interdite

www.fruitrop.com No. 237 November/December 2015 Citrus Counter-season and Martinique Close-up Guadeloupe table grape Dominican Dominican English edition avocado banana Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite THE LATEST ON...

Last chance. Are we finally going to take action? That is the question being asked, or rather ranted, after the probable detection in the Mediterranean (more specifically in the Algarve, Portugal) of a first focal outbreak of the most devastating form of citrus greening. The danger zone in this case covers the entire Mediterranean Basin, the world’s number one citrus export centre. Just like the Chernobyl fallout, the greening bacterium knows no borders. The economic and social stakes are high, as illustrated in full-scale and in vivo by the Floridian citrus industry, dealt a fatal blow by the disease, and at risk of losing its 185 000 ha cultivation area, 62 000 jobs and 5 billion dollars of economic benefits, despite the colossal efforts of professionals and the administration. The consequences would of course be far greater in the Mediterranean, on top of which there would be issues of depopulation of fragile zones, and the absence of an alternative produce providing similar added value. The nutritional stakes too are high, with the Mediterranean supplying in addition to its local markets nearly two-thirds of citruses — the main source of vitamin C — sold worldwide. Those who for years have been sounding the alarm have been heard politely; yet there is not even a rough draft for a Mediterranean epidemic monitoring network, so necessary and so inexpensive in view of the stakes. All the structures directly or indirectly involved in this industry have been found wanting during the prevention phase; there is still time for them to make amends now that the moment for action has arrived. Eric Imbert

Publisher Contents Cirad TA B-26/PS4 Direct from the markets (E. Imbert, D. Loeillet, C. Dawson, P. Gerbaud, T. Paqui, R. Bright) 34398 Montpellier cedex 5, France Tel: 33 (0) 4 67 61 71 41 Fax: 33 (0) 4 67 61 59 28 p. 2 OCTOBER 2015 Email: [email protected] • Banana: Fairtrade comment on “UK the undisputed leader on the conventional and www.fruitrop.com labelled banana market” — Purée price in Europe in September 2015 — Growth in EU Publishing Director Hubert de Bon banana consumption halted. Editors-in-chief • Citrus: Spanish citruses: African psylla gaining ground — Orange juice, sure... as long as Denis Loeillet and Eric Imbert it’s Floridian — Orange variety of the month: Salustiana — Pakistan: exportable Kinnow Editor volumes smaller in 2015-16 — Morocco served by five CMA CGM group lines — Easy Catherine Sanchez peelers variety of the month: Clemenvilla — juice prices in Europe in September 2015 — Computer graphics Argentinean citruses: mediocre record for the 2015 campaign. Martine Duportal • Temperate fruit and vegetables: Chilean blueberry exports set to rise again in 2015-16 Iconography — South African stone fruits: set for a fine harvest. Régis Domergue • Avocado: The avocado, a crop of the future for the Canaries — Peruvian avocado tackling Website Actimage the Chinese market — The United States… is not Peru! Advertising Manager • Exotics (pineapple, mango) Eric Imbert • Sea freight and sector news: Other fruits: juice and purée prices in Europe in September Subscriptions 2015. www.fruitrop.com E. Imbert, D. Loeillet, C. Dawson, P. Gerbaud, T. Paqui, C. Céleyrette, R. Bright Translators James Brownlee, Simon Barnard The latest on... Printed by Impact Imprimerie n°483 ZAC des Vautes p. 14 • French West Indies banana 34980 Saint Gély du Fesc, France The FWI banana needs to save its skin! (Camille Rannou) ISSN p. 18 • Counter-season table grape French: 1256-544X Early slot still buoyant? (Cécilia Céleyrette) English: 1256-5458 • Calendar and public holidays Separate French and English editions p. 21 © Copyright Cirad 2016 set to be a bright year (Cécilia Céleyrette) p. 78 • Dominican avocado Subscription rate Big potential exploited in-situ (Bettina Balmer) EUR 300 / 8 issues per year (paper and electronic editions) Close-up by Eric Imbert: CITRUS This document was produced by the Markets News Service of the PERSYST department at CI- p. 26 • Mediterranean citruses — 2015-16 harvest forecasts — Melting away... RAD, for the exclusive use of subscribers. The data presented are from reliable sources, but CIRAD p. 58 • World citrus market — Prudence called for more than ever may not be held responsible for any error or omis- p. 67 • World orange juice market — Change is nearly upon us! sion. Under no circumstances may the published prices be considered to be transaction prices. p. 72 • Citrus pests and diseases Their aim is to shed light on the medium and long-term market trends and evolutions. This pub- p. 73 • Citrus cultivation lication is protected by copyright, and all rights p. 75 • Citrus harvesting and storage of reproduction and distribution are prohibited. p. 76 • Main citrus varieties Wholesale market prices in Europe p. 87 OCTOBER 2015 Cover photograph © Carolina Dawson

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 1 Direct from the markets Banana October 2015 The pressure continued to intensify Fairtrade comment on “UK the undisputed leader on the conventional across the continent. Demand in Europe and labelled banana market”. It was good to see Anne-Charlotte Orefice’s was on the buoyant side, but similar to recent article on the UK banana market, especially the attention given to the prob- last year: the pressure from compet- lems of low retail pricing. We welcome the opportunity to contribute to the debate. ing fruits remained limited, promotions Price competition in the banana sector were launched and the fall in temperatures boosted consumption. However, Addressing excessive retail price competition requires sector-wide solutions the significant increase in incoming involving government, retailers and certifiers like Fairtrade. Market regulation in shipments unbalanced the markets. particular appears to disincentivise sustainable pricing. This is why, in 2014, the While Costa Rican imports remained Fairtrade Foundation ran a high-profile public campaign, presenting detailed anal- stable, Colombian imports continued ysis of the problem, calling for both government intervention and retailer action. to rise (incoming shipments peaking This included the submission of a petition requesting an investigation into the price wars, signed by over 70,000 people, to the UK Secretary of State for Business. 20 % higher than last year). In addition, We continue to actively advocate on the issues of unfair pricing and competition the Ecuadorian supply was bigger than law, the need for living wages and payment of a sustainable cost of production. last year. Hence incoming dollar banana shipments were 14 % above average. For Campaigning for government and sector-wide industry action, alongside active their part, African and French West Indies engagement with the issues in standards and pricing is far from being a “decla- imports, already high in September, con- ration of powerlessness”, as suggested by Ms Orefice! Fairtrade also remains the tinued their seasonal rise, peaking at 5 % only certification to guarantee a minimum price and premium payment, providing essential protection to farmers and workers in the face of low market prices. above average, especially thanks to Côte d’Ivoire returning to full production. The Fairtrade’s work with smallholder and hired labour producers markets were swollen by dollar banana From the outset, Fairtrade has sourced bananas from both hired labour and spot supplies in ports and by gradually smallholder producers. The vast majority of bananas sold at export are produced accumulating stocks. Highly compet- on plantations. Historically many workers have been employed under appalling itive re-exports from Western Europe conditions. Hence Fairtrade has seen the delivery of improved rights and a fairer saturated the East European markets. share of the economic benefits of trade for banana workers as right and proper: In Northern Europe, free market pric- it was strange to see this presented by the article as a problem. In the case of ba- es rapidly deteriorated. In France, rates nanas, working with both plantations has enabled Fairtrade to offer greater scale, more or less held up until mid-October. with three leading UK retailers committed to 100% Fairtrade, all of whom included Conversely, the Canaries platano price purchasing commitments from smallholders, thus increasing benefits for a wider continued to strengthen on the Spanish group of families involved in banana farming. market, at roughly seasonal levels, especially thanks to the middling supply Minimum price setting against lively demand. Finally, imports The article commented on Fairtrade’s cost of production methodology. Fairtrade into Russia remained in shortfall (- 16 %), minimum price and standards reviews are conducted transparently, in line with with the market balance remaining ISEAL guidelines. All stakeholders are consulted, especially producers themselves. highly sensitive to volume increases. Living wage calculations are also in progress for key origin and pricing reviews now Prices took a downturn at the end of the reference these benchmarks, where available. Full details are at www.fairtrade.net. month. In a new initiative, CIRAD, the FAO and the World Banana Forum are in discussions with Fairtrade on the development of harmonised Cost of Production methods.

NORTHERN EUROPE — IMPORT PRICE We look forward to engaging in further collaboration and debate, as we work together to meet the considerable challenges faced by smallholder farmers and October Comparison plantation workers in the banana industry. 2015 previous average for Leena Camadoo euro/box month last 2 years Product Manager: Bananas 15.16 - 1 % + 15 % Fairtrade UK

AllemagneGermany - -GreenPrix vert price (2 e(2etnd 3/3erdmarques) brands) EUROPE - RETAIL PRICE 15.5 15.4 October 2015 Comparison 14.5 15.2 15.3 14.0 15.3 15.2 Country September average for 13.7 15.1 type euro/kg E 2015 last 3 years U France normal 1.61 0 % + 6 % R special offer 1.31 + 2 % + 3 % O Germany normal 1.32 - 2 % + 6 % euro/colis

P euro/box E discount 1.24 - 1 % + 9 % UK (£/kg) packed 1.04 + 1 % - 10 % loose 0.72 0 % 0 % J F M A M J J A S O N D Spain platano 2.10 + 8 % + 5 % 2015 2014 2013 banano 1.29 - 1 % - 2 %

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 2 November/December 2015 No. 237 X International Symposium on Banana / ISHS-ProMusa symposium Agroecological approaches to promote

I S 6 H 1 innovative banana production systems S 0 - P 2 r m oM u u si sa Sympo 10-14 October 2016 Montpellier, France H. Tran Quoc H. Tran

The symposium will take stock of current scientific knowledge and technical advances in the deployment of agroecological approaches in banana production, and how these can contribute to the sustainable intensification of the production systems. The symposium will be structured around five complementary sessions: Session 1: Sharing the concepts of agroecology and illustrating their usage Session 2: Managing plant diversity to ensure ecosystem services Session 3: Improving soil functioning through optimizing mineral and water resource use (field level) Session 4: Enhancing biological regulations in banana cropping systems (field level) Session 5: Processes, multi-criteria assessment of performances, and contextual factors driving stakeholder strategies (at farm, landscape or higher levels)

Abstract submission deadline: 29 February 2016 http://ishs-promusa2016.cirad.fr

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite Direct from the markets Banana

UnitedEtats- UnisStates - Prix - Green vert price(spot) (spot)  Banana: purée price in Europe in September 2015. U 19.0 N 18.9 16.5 Type Price (USD/t) Source Comments I 16.7 16.3 16.4 17.3 16.1 T 16.1 16.0 Following the slight increase of recent E ss aseptic, 650-700 months, demand and supply seemingly Ecuador D 22°Brix cfr Rotterdam balanced. No movements expected before S the new year. euro/box T USD/colis Note: cfr: cost and freight / Source: MNS-ITC Geneva A T E  Growth in EU banana con- ACP, trailing again, down by 1 %. J F M A M J J A S O N D After 6 months S sumption halted. Over the first 3 quarters, US consump- 2015 2014 2013 on the up (on a 12-month sliding tion rose by just 1 %. Guatemala and scale), consumption stagnated at Ecuador confirmed their excellent per- 5 753 000 t in September 2015. Yet UNITED STATES - IMPORT PRICE formances (+ 6 %), whereas Colombia there is nothing ominous in this. Comparison and Costa Rica plummeted (-14 % and October Since January 2013, there have been -23 % respectively), trading in favour 2015 previous average for more rises than falls; indeed this is of the EU. USD/box month last 2 years just the sixth monthly fall. Further- 16.02 - 1 % - 1 % more, at constant scope, consump- On the supply side, the situation is still tion has gone up by more than highly pressurised. The recent setbacks 630 000 t over this period. In this con- in Surinam or Belize reduced volumes Russie - PrixRussia vert - GreenCIF St Petersburgprice text the dollar sources consolidated only very slightly. Ecuador, Colom- 18.7 their position with a 0.7 point market bia and Cameroon are on the rise. 16.5 13.2 Operators are increasingly concerned 17.8 12.8 share gain, reaching 70.6 %; whereas 14.3 R 9.5 12.5 European produce stagnated and the for the end of the year and early 2016. U 12.3 ACP share dropped by 1 point. Over They are cynically waiting for El Niño S the first 9 months of the year, the to live up to expectations, and rapidly S 7.0 5.3 balance was still very positive, with reduce the production potential in euro/box I USD/colis A consumption up by 3 %. The dollar Latin America. They are also hoping sources again took the lion’s share, that the positive trend in world banana climbing by 3.6 %, with European consumption will not run out of steam. J F M A M J J A S O N D production gaining 1.9 % and the 2015 2014 2013 Source: CIRAD Banana - January to September 2015 (provisional) RUSSIA - IMPORT PRICE 2015/2014 000 tonnes 2013 2014 2015 October Comparison difference EU-27 — Supply 4 012 4 225 4 352 + 3 % 2015 previous average for Total imports, of which 3 576 3 763 3 882 + 3 % USD/box month last 2 years MFN 2 807 2 981 3 089 + 4 % ACP Africa 391 412 414 0 % 13.16 + 5 % + 11 % ACP others 378 389 380 - 2 % Total EU, of which 435 462 470 + 2 % EspagneSpain - Platano - Prix vert - Green platano* price* Martinique 128 140 146 + 5 % Guadeloupe 51 54 47 - 13 % 22.5 Canaries 245 253 262 + 4 % C 15.9 15.0 USA — Imports 3 428 3 486 3 508 + 1 % 15.5 Re-exports 402 414 416 0 % A 14.8 13.6 13.5 13.4 15.6 N 12.4 Net supply 3 026 3 072 3 092 + 1 % A EU sources: CIRAD, EUROSTAT (excl. EU domestic production) / USA source: US Customs R euro/box

I euro/colis EUROPE - IMPORTED VOLUMES - SEPTEMBER 2015 E S Comparison Source J F M A M J J A S O N D September October 2015 cumulative total 2015 2014 compared to 2014 2015 2014 2013 French West Indies  + 2 % 0 % Cameroon/Ghana/Côte d’Ivoire  + 8 % - 1 % CANARIES - IMPORT PRICE* Surinam  - 24 % - 17 % October Comparison Canaries  + 3 % + 4 % Dollar : 2015 previous average for Ecuador  + 1 % + 9 % euro/box month last 2 years Colombia*  + 20 % + 13 % 22.50 + 44 % + 14 % Costa Rica = + 1 % + 9 % * 18.5-kg box equivalent Estimate made thanks to professional sources / * total for all destinations Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 4 November/December 2015 No. 237 Direct from the markets Avocado October 2015 The transition between the summer  The United States… is not and winter sources passed in a difficult Peru! Peruvian Customs figures market context. The summer campaigns have confirmed that exports were extended, with stocks remaining remained unchanged in 2015, with available until the end of the month (es- volumes peaking at 174 000 t (- 3 % pecially in Kenya). Chilean volumes rap- on 2014). While volumes shipped idly progressed to high levels, because to the Old Continent climbed to of the depressed US market. Imports exceed the record level of 110 000 from Mexico also registered record lev- t, by contrast there was a distinct els. Hence the market supply was abun- slump in shipments to North America (- 30 %). With cultivation dant throughout the month. Meanwhile, © Eric Imbert areas expanding in Michoacán in demand proved listless, especially be- recent years, availability of Mexican cause of import and retail prices remain-  The avocado, a crop of the Hass is such that the other sources ing high. On the green varieties side, the future for the Canaries. This are struggling to find a place on the first Israeli Ettingers were available with was the message delivered by the market, while Jalisco has not yet seasonal volumes, while Spanish Bacon province’s agricultural development joined the dance. This is a some- and Fuerte imports were in shortfall. So services at a conference organised what worrying observation, given prices remained strong and high until in September, in which around sixty the booming Peruvian cultivation the end of the month. producers took part. In 2013, the area. The diversification markets did Canaries had an approximate total make progress, though volumes of 1 200 ha of avocado, concentrat- remained limited. AvocadoAvocat - -France France - -Prix Import import price ed on the islands of Palma (560 ha), Sources: SIICEX - PROMPERU 3.5 Tenerife (400 ha) and Gran Canaria (200 ha). Production, estimated at 3.0 approximately 10 000 t in 2013, 2.5 comprises primarily Hass, and to Avocado - Peru - Exports 2.0 a lesser degree Fuerte. At present 1.5 consumption is nearly entirely local, euro/kg 120 EU 1.0 with 650 t shipped to the continent North America 0.5 in 2013 primarily aimed at the 100 Chile 0.0 Spanish market. Others O N D J F M A M J J A S Source: Cabildo de Tenerife 80 15/16 14/15 13/14

 Peruvian avocado tackling 60 Average Comparison the Chinese market. The first

monthly tonnes000 P Varieties with the last container of Peruvian Hass was 40 R price 2 years unloaded at the port of Shanghai I euro/box in late September, after a voyage of C 20 E Green 8.70 + 34 % 34 days including a transhipment in Hass 9.80 + 7 % Panama. Peruvian exporters hope to be able to ship 10 000 to 15 000 0 t per year to this market in the near Comparison 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 V future. O Varieties previous average for L Sources: La Republica.pe, InfoHass Source: SIICEX U month last 2 years M Green  - 23 % E S Hass  + 29 %

Comparison Cumulative total / Source previous average for Observations cumulative average V month last 2 years for last 2 years O Kenyan campaign ending, with higher volumes than in L Kenya  + 208 % + 20 % U previous years. M Green varieties campaign progressing, with near-average Israel  + 2 % + 2 % E volumes. S Bigger rise than predicted because of the depressed US Chile  + 18 % + 29 % market. Mexico  + 200 % Volumes very high for the season. + 320 %

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 5 Direct from the markets Orange

October 2015 In spite of the undynamic demand  Spanish citruses: African (school holidays, high prices), the tran- psylla gaining ground! The vec- sition between sources passed in a tor of the African form of greening tight market context. The last batches is spreading in Galicia. Since the of South African Valencia Late sold in- insect was first detected in August volved limited quantities (- 18 %), and 2014, the number of infected sites

there were no stocks available. The first has apparently risen from 12 (9 in Domergue © Régis incoming shipments of Spanish Nave- the Pontevedra region and 3 in the lina were also in shortfall (- 24 %), and La Coruna region) to 53 (37 in the only really progressed toward the end of Pontevedra region and 16 in the the month, because of a production po- La Coruna region). It is fortunate tential below normal and rains delaying indeed that the insects identified picking. Hence, unlike other years, rates were not carrying the disease. The for the last South African oranges start-  Orange juice, sure... as long ed to strengthen toward the end of the agricultural unions are condemn- ing the inadequacy of the meas- as it’s Floridian. US consumers month, reaching record levels (+ 26 %) can now be certain that the juice for the season. The price of the first Na- ures implemented by the Spanish they are buying is locally produced, velines was also higher than in previous public authorities, and are calling in Florida. The FDOC has launched years (+ 9 %). for the phytosanitary protection services to be allocated additional a mobile phone and tablet app able resources commensurate with the to trace the source of the product risk posed by this deadly bacterio- when its barcode is scanned. sis. Florida, infected by the disease Source: FDOC OrangeOrange -- FranceFrance -- ImportPrix import price since 2005, saw its citrus produc- 1.0 tion slump by more than 6 million tonnes in ten years. 0.8 Source: Reefer Trends 0.6

0.4 euro/kg 0.2

0.0

O N D J F M A M J J A S Domergue © Régis 15/16 14/15 13/14

Average Comparison with average P Type monthly R price for last I euro/15-kg box 2 years  Orange variety of the month: C E Dessert orange 13.65 + 9 % Salustiana. Very popular in Spain, this blonde juice orange is medi- Juice orange 13.05 + 26 % um-sized to large. The peel is of medium thickness with fine gran- V Comparison ulation. The flesh is delicate and O Type sweet with a very pleasant taste. It L previous average for U month last 2 years © Eric Imbert is also seedless. M Dessert orange  - 24 % Source: CIRAD E S Juice orange  - 18 %

Cumulative Comparison Varieties total / V by Observations cumulative O source previous average for average L month last 2 years for last 2 years U M Spanish Navelina starting late and in shortfall due to a reduced  - 24 % - 24 % E Navelina production potential and to rains delaying picking. S South Africa South African campaign ending with meagre volumes. Some  - 18 % 0 % Valencia Late very limited stocks until the middle of the month.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 6 November/December 2015 No. 237 Direct from the markets Easy peelers October 2015 In spite of a Spanish supply 16 % below  Pakistan: exportable Kinnow - Pakistan - Exports average for the early varieties (Clemen- Kinnow volumes smaller in to main destinations soon, Clemenrubi), due to the produc- 2015-16. According to a Pakistani tion losses caused by the spring heat, exporter, the export potential of the easy peelers market was balanced. 180 Afghanistan Kinnow should see a steep fall in Russia Demand, after an undynamic start to the 2015-16, because of a recurrence 160 season, awoke only very gradually, with Persian Gulf of sanitary problems, including 140 Asia high import and retail prices impeding citrus canker. After strong growth consumption (import prices 14 % above 120 during the past decade, Kinnow average). The arrival of Oronules in week exports have stabilised in recent 100 43, with nearer-average volumes and years at between 360 000 and 80

more accessible prices, accompanied tonnes000 the revitalisation of demand. However, 370 000 t. This variety, derived 60 from the King mandarin and wide- volumes were curbed at the end of the 40 month by rains at the production stage. ly planted in Punjab, is shipped Some batches from Morocco appeared mainly to neighbouring Afghani- 20 on the market. Finally, the first Corsican stan, Russia (70 000 to 80 000 t per 0 clementines, in very limited quantities season), the Persian Gulf and other

(lean harvest, rains), were sold in week Asian countries. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 43. Source: PHDEC Source: Trademap

 Morocco served by five CMA  Easy peelers variety of the PetitsEasy peelersagrumes - France- France - Import- Prix import price CGM group lines. The shipping month: Clemenvilla. Present on group launched five lines serving 2.2 markets from mid-November to 2.0 Morocco upon the opening of the January, this medium-sized fruit is 1.8 horticultural produce export cam- 1.6 the result of a cross between com- 1.4 paign in late October. The CMA mon clementine and Tangelo. It has 1.2 CGM DUNKRUS, AGAPOV and MO- 1.0 useful qualities: marked skin colour,

euro/kg 0.8 ROCCO SHUTTLE lines will connect a deep orange tender juicy seedless 0.6 to the ports of Northern Europe 0.4 pulp, and sweet flavour with low 0.2 (especially Dunkirk, Rotterdam, acidity. The fruits must nevertheless 0.0 Antwerp, etc.), the Mediterranean S O N D J F M A be picked rapidly to prevent swell- (Port Vendres, Barcelona, etc.), as ing of the peel. It is widely grown in 15/16 14/15 13/14 well as Russia and North America Spain (Clemenvilla), Israel (Suntina) via transhipments (in Dunkirk and Morocco. and Algeciras respectively). Two Average Comparison OPDR lines (a CMA CGM group Source: CIRAD P with average Type monthly subsidiary since late 2014) will also R price for last connect to North European ports I euro/kg 2 years C (Rotterdam, Hamburg and Tilbury E Clementine 1.51 + 14 % for the CISS line, and Portsmouth, Hybrids - - Rotterdam and Antwerp for the AGAX line). In total, fourteen

weekly links are available out of Domergue © Régis Comparison V Agadir or Casablanca. O Type previous average for L Sources: Reefer Trends, CMA CGM U month last 2 years M E Clementine  - 16 % S Hybrids - -

Comparison Cumulative total / Varieties cumulative V by Observations previous average for average O source L month last 2 years for last 2 years U M Normal start to the campaign, though Clemenrubi and E Spanish  - 16 % Clemensoon volumes in shortfall. Arrival of Oronules in week 43, - 16 % S Clementine but volumes progressing slowly (rains).

Corsican  - 49 % First incoming shipments in week 43 very limited. Campaign - 49 % Clementine progressing slowly: production shortfall and rains delaying picking.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 7 Direct from the markets Grapefruit October 2015 The transition between summer and  Citruses: juice prices in Europe in September 2015. winter sources passed in a buoyant Price (US- market context. The last South African Type Source Comments D/t) batches were sold at the beginning of the month, and incoming Mexican ship- Frozen concentrate, 1 500-1 600 Prices on the white market ments waned rapidly, with a majority of 58°Brix, red, ratio 9.5+ cfr Holland remained stable in Q3, with no movements expected small fruits and some quality concerns Frozen concentrate, 1 750-1 850 over the last batches. After reaching until the end of the year. The 58°Brix, pink, ratio 9.0+ cfr Rotterdam pink market is also stable. record levels in September, prices be- Grape- For red, the price difference Frozen concentrate, 2 400-2 600 Florida gan to fall, though they remained 25 % fruit between ratios remained above average (promotions, hetero- 58°Brix, white, ratio 9.5+ cfr Rotterdam high. South Africa had a geneous quality). Meanwhile, the first good harvest, with higher very meagre shipments from Florida ratios than normal, on a arrived late (week 44), with small fruits level footing with Florida. in the majority. Hence the Israeli and Demand still falling. Spanish campaigns, which started at FCOJ, Pera, 66°Brix, 1 800-1 900 Demand for FCOJ dropped Brazil the beginning of the month and rapidly loose, ratio 14-16 fca Holland worldwide. Brazilian juice progressed, took advantage of an un- production should drop FCOJ, blood orange, 2 600-2 700 der-supplied market. These sources rap- steeply, because of a fall of 55°Brix EUR/t approximately one third in idly established themselves, with high exw Italy shipments to the industrial early campaign prices (+ 21 %). Orange sector, and a decrease in Italy the production yield. The GrapefruitPomelo - -France France - -Prix Import import price Floridian harvest should 1.2 also be down. With stocks 1.0 low, prices could strengthen at the end of the year. 0.8 Frozen concentrate, 3 950-4 200 Fall in prices over recent 0.6 cloudy, 500 gpl cfr Rotterdam months continuing. Lemon Argentina euro/kg European harvest set to be 0.4 Frozen concentrate, 4 700-4 950 average. 0.2 clear, 500 gpl cfr Rotterdam Note: cfr: cost and freight / fca: free carrier / exw: ex-works / Source: MNS-ITC Geneva 0.0 O N D J F M A M J J A S 15/16 14/15 13/14  Argentinean citruses: negative impact of the depreciation Average Comparison mediocre balance for the of the euro on European market monthly with average 2015 campaign. According to returns, and the increase in produc- P Type price for last “All Lemon”, the lemon enjoyed tion costs arising in particular from R euro/17-kg box I equivalent 2 years a positive season, despite very the climbing dollar. The picture is C completely different for the orange S. Hemisphere 18.53 + 21 % high sorting rejects because of a E particularly rainy Southern winter. and easy peelers: 80 000 t of fruits Tropical 16.43 + 25 % Export volumes reportedly did not were reportedly left on the trees Mediterranean 15.13 + 21 % return to a normal level (between due to lack of outlets. Indeed the 240 000 and 280 000 t), but climbed country’s recurrent competitiveness Comparison V by approximately 25 % from the problems are weighing down on O Type previous average for very lean 2014 campaign (barely export sales, and the local market is L month last 2 years 150 000 t, due in particular to heavy saturated. U  frost in Tucuman). The economic re- M S. Hemisphere - 38 % Sources: All Lemon, Fecier, Federcitrus turns were satisfactory, despite the E Tropical  - S Mediterranean  + 37 %

Comparison Cumulative total / Source previous average for Observations cumulative average V for last 2 years O month last 2 years L South Africa  - 38 % End of campaign. - 6 % U M Mexico  - Supply waning. End of campaign in week 43. - E Rapid rise in Israeli supply, bigger volumes than last year S Israel  + 27% + 15 % since the beginning of the season. Delayed start to the campaign, first shipments in week Florida -  - 57 % - 55 % 44 very limited, with small sizes abundant.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 8 November/December 2015 No. 237 Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite Direct from the markets Pineapple Mango October 2015 October 2015 The market maintained a positive trend The European mango market supply The low air-freight mango availability throughout the month. The unusual remained modest in October. The last Is- from Brazil led exporters to supply Palm- paucity of the Costa Rican Sweet sup- raeli batches sold in the first half-month er, which sold steadily at between 3.50 ply was confirmed, resulting in rates at high prices. Meanwhile, Spain contin- and 4.50 euros/kg, despite usually being steadily increasing, which gave rise to ued its shipments with the Osteen varie- an air-freight variety. The limited quanti- several speculative sales in the first half- ty. Quantities remained moderate, thus ties of Brazilian Kent helped keep prices month. It was increasingly complicated maintaining the prices registered in Sep- high throughout the month. The good to organise promotions, so meagre was tember. They dipped slightly at the end market conditions also favoured sales the supply. At the end of the month, of the month, a period corresponding to of air-freight quality Spanish Irwin and volumes remained very limited, still af- the end of the campaign for this variety. Kent, which traded on the same price fected by heavy rains. In addition, in a Throughout the month, the large sizes footing. context of quiet demand because of the sold at slightly lower prices. Brazil slow- school holidays, the high proportion of ly took over as number one supplier to large fruits forced operators to stabilise the European market. In the first half of MANGO - INCOMING SHIPMENTS the price increase, which was starting to October, the Brazilian supply primarily (estimates in tonnes) rein back demand. comprised Tommy Atkins, Palmer, and to a lesser degree Keitt. With the ap- The air-freight pineapple market had Weeks E pearance of the first Kent batches in the 41 42 43 44 a difficult beginning of the month. Al- 2015 U middle of the month, the Tommy Atkins R though small, the Cayenne supply strug- rate fell considerably, while the rates of Air-freight O gled to find takers. The quality problems the other varieties waned only slightly P due to low fruit coloration did nothing Brazil 50 50 60 40 E under the effect of the growing overall to facilitate marketing. In anticipation supply from Brazil. Sea-freight of a possible fall in demand from the beginning of the second half-month Brazil 3 300 3 030 3 560 3 700 because of school holidays, several operators opted to considerably cut their imports. Others (Ivorian supply) instead MANGO - IMPORT PRICE ON THE FRENCH MARKET switched to the sea-freight market, Oct. 2015 Oct. 2014 Weeks 2015 41 42 43 44 which paradoxically was more lucrative. average average At the end of the month, the paucity of Air-freight (euros/kg) the overall supply helped the market re- Brazil Palmer 3.50-4.50 3.50-4.50 3.50-4.50 3.50-4.00 3.50-4.35 - cover some degree of fluidity. Sugarloaf Brazil Kent 5.00-5.50 4.50-5.50 4.50-5.50 5.00-5.50 4.75-5.50 3.70-4.95 sales were fairly limited, though the sup- Spain Irwin 4.50-5.50 4.50-5.50 - - 4.50-5.50 4.15-4.80 ply was small. Rates fluctuated between Spain Kent 5.00-5.50 5.00-5.50 - - 5.00-5.50 3.30-4.30 1.80 and 2.00 euros/kg over the month. Sea-freight (euros/box) The Victoria market was a bit more an- Israel Kent/Keitt 8.00-9.00 8.00 - - 8.00-8.50 5.00-6.00 imated. The Reunion supply, which saw Brazil Palmer 8.00-9.00 7.00-8.00 - 7.00 7.30-8.00 - a rise, was heavily unbalanced by exces- Brazil T. Atkins 6.00-7.00 5.00-6.00 4.00-5.50 4.00-5.00 4.75-5.85 9.00 sive small fruits, which were more diffi- Brazil Keitt - 7.50-8.00 6.00-7.50 6.00-8.00 6.50-7.80 8.00-9.10 cult to sell. At the end of the month, the Brazil Kent - - 7.00-8.50 7.00-8.50 7.00-8.50 - organisation of promotions helped pre- Truck (euros/box) vent stocks from forming. Spain Osteen 9.50-12.00 8.00-12.00 9.00-10.00 9.00 8.85-10.75 7.10-8.50

PINEAPPLE - IMPORT PRICE IN FRANCE - MAIN SOURCES Weeks 2015 41 42 43 44 PINEAPPLE — IMPORT PRICE Air-freight (euros/kg) Smooth Cayenne Benin 1.70-1.90 1.70-1.90 1.80-1.90 1.80-1.90 Weeks Min Max Cameroon 1.70-1.90 1.70-1.90 1.80-1.90 1.80-1.90 41 to 44 E Ghana 1.75-1.90 1.75-1.90 1.80-2.00 1.80-2.00 U Air-freight (euros/kg) Côte d’Ivoire 1.80 1.80 1.85-1.90 1.85-1.90 R O Victoria Reunion 3.00-3.80 2.50-3.80 2.50-3.80 2.50-3.80 P Smooth Cayenne 1.70 2.00 Mauritius 3.00-3.30 2.90-3.30 3.00-3.50 3.00-3.50 E Victoria 2.50 3.80 Sea-freight (euros/box) Smooth Cayenne Côte d’Ivoire - 10.00 10.00-11.00 10.00-11.00 Sea-freight (euros/box) Sweet Côte d’Ivoire 10.00-12.00 10.00-13.00 10.00-13.00 10.00-14.00 Smooth Cayenne 10.00 11.00 Ghana 10.00-12.00 10.00-13.00 10.00-13.00 10.00-14.00 Sweet 10.00 14.00 Costa Rica 10.00-13.00 10.00-13.00 10.00-13.00 10.00-13.00

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 10 November/December 2015 No. 237 Direct from the markets Temperate fruit and vegetable

 Chilean blueberry exports set to rise again in Blueberry - Chile - Exports 2015-16. The potential is estimated at around 99 000 to 109 000 t by the Chilean Blueberry Committee, i.e. another 100 90 increase of at least 10 %. The bulk of the produce is from 80 the Maule region (36 300 t), which should have a consid- 70 60 erably bigger potential this year (+ 35 %), ahead of the 50 Bio-Bio region (31 800 t, i.e. + 8 %) and Araucania (10 700 t, 40 + 6 %). The majority of volumes (67 % in 2014-15) is aimed 30 20 at the United States, though 23 % was exported to Europe tonnes000 10 and 10 % to Asia last year. The surface area is now up to 0 15 900 ha. 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 Source: Simfruit Sources: Chilean Committee, Ciren / Processed by INFOFRUIT

Stone fruits - South Africa - Exports  South African stone fruits: set for a fine harvest. Apricot 80 The initial info released by the South African producers’ Peach & nectarine 70 association Hortgro is heralding a fine stone fruits harvest, Plum 60 with an exportable total of 18 million boxes. The climate 50 conditions over the winter were fairly favourable, so we 40 can even reckon on fairly good sizing. Hence plum exports 30 could reach 11.8 million boxes (+ 3 %), peach exports 2 mil- 20 000 tonnes000 lion boxes (+ 5 %) and nectarine exports 3.9 million boxes 10 (+ 4 %). Only apricots are set to be down, by just 3 %. 0 Sources: UN, Comtrade 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: UN Comtrade

 Mango: juice and purée prices in Europe in September 2015.

Type Price (USD/t) Source Comments Aseptic puree, 17°Brix, 1 750-1 850 The market for Alphonso remained Alphonso variety cfr Rotterdam strong. The harvest was particularly lean, with no stocks available. India Aseptic concentrate, 28°Brix, 1 350-1 450 Demand still just as dynamic, despite Totapuri variety cfr Rotterdam the heterogeneous quality of batches Domergue © Régis from India.

Aseptic concentrate, 28°Brix, 1 300-1 350 Tommy Atkins variety fca Holland Mexico Note: cfr: cost and freight / fca: free carrier / Source: MNS-ITC Geneva

 Pineapple: juice prices in Europe in September 2015.

Type Price (USD/t) Source Comments Frozen concentrate, 60°Brix, 3 300-3 500 The harvests were particularly lean, Smooth Cayenne variety fca Holland with only scarce volumes aimed at the juice industry. According to Thailand Aseptic concentrate, 60°Brix, 3 300-3 500 observers, this situation could last, but at these price levels, demand Smooth Cayenne variety cfr Rotterdam © Guy Bréhinier should drop

NFC, ss aseptic, 12°Brix, MD-2 750-800 variety ddp London Costa Rica Note: fca: free carrier / cfr: cost and freight / ddp: delivered duty paid / Source: MNS-ITC Geneva

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 11 Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite Direct from the markets Sea freight

October 2015 Fears of a quiet month on the charter Meanwhile, at the start of the month the Africa voyage at the start of the month. market evaporated once it became clear small segment was stuck firmly in the By the end of the month, the market had that there was a significant seasonal ba- doldrums: there was a prevailing sense strengthened as more units were ab- nana surplus in Central America, Colom- of uncertainty over the direction Nigeria sorbed by the potato trade between N bia and the Philippines. However, while would take with its fish imports, which Cont and North Africa. However there is the uptick in demand may have pleased made charterers more cautious. With every reason to believe that trading into reefer operators and kept the charter little comfort to be had in other trades, Nigeria will continue to present difficul- market busy, the consequences of so there was a minor accumulation of ton- ties as long as the price of oil remains many vessels laden with fruit arriving on nage and rates fell from US$135 per MT low and the Naira therefore weak. already saturated Eastern Med banana on the benchmark Mauretania to West markets for all the other supply chain stakeholders, will continue to be felt throughout November.  Other fruits: juice and purée prices in Europe in September 2015. Of the four major players with production in Central America, Dole and Unib- Type Price (USD/t) Source Comments an keep the lowest profile, preferring to ss frozen, 6-8°Brix 1 150-1 200 Market well supplied and cfr Rotterdam balanced. sell their excess fruit FOB to the traders Acerola Brazil than take the risk of chartering addition- Frozen concentrate, 3 000-3 100 al tonnage into the Turkish market bot- 20-22°Brix, clear fob Santos tleneck. This year Del Monte initially sold Frozen concentrate, 6 000-6 500 Volumes from Ecuador and 52°Brix cfr Holland Peru even more limited a percentage of its fruit FOB, but with since the middle of the pricing conditions deteriorating to the year. Practically no more Passion point where so many bananas in Mersin Ecuador stocks available, with prices fruit and Istanbul were being sold on a con- continuing to climb. The signment basis, traders were no longer Ecuadorian production peak in August was much lower than willing to take the chartering risk, and predicted. the multinational was forced to market Concentrated purée, 1 150-1 250 Supply and demand in balance. its own fruit. Chiquita also took a more South 19°Brix, pink cfr Holland Africa The forecast for the Indian proactive role; in previous years it too Guava harvest was revised downward. Concentrated purée, 1 150-1 250 Nearing the end of the harvest has sold a percentage of its surplus FOB, India but under new ownership this has not 20°Brix, white cfr Rotterdam in South Africa. happened. Clarified aseptic 2 700-3 000 With demand on the up, prices Pome- purée, 65°Brix EUR/t Turkey strengthened in 2015. The next The other big loser in the banana mel- granate fca Rotterdam Iran harvests will be available in Q4. odrama has been Ecuador, which has seen demand fall from its Med and Far Note: cfr: cost and freight / fob: free on board / fca: free carrier / Source: MNS-ITC Geneva Eastern customers under pressure from its Dollar banana and Pacific rivals. If El Nino becomes as powerful as forecasts suggest it will, this could prove to be the start of a difficult six months for the world’s largest banana exporter.

GrandsLarge reefers reefers PetitsSmall reefers reefers MONTHLY SPOT AVERAGE 150 2014 150 2014 2013 2013 125 125 2012 USD cents/cubic Large Small 2012 E 100 U foot x 30 days reefers reefers 100 R 75 75 O P October 2015 38 72 50 50 E 25 25

October 2014 31 86 US Cents/ Cubft x jours 30 US Cents / Cubft x 30 days / Cubft US Cents US Cents/ Cubft x jours 30 0 x 30 days / Cubft US Cents 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 October 2013 46 88 SemainesWeeks / / Source: Source Reefer: Reefer Trends Trends SemainesWeeks / /Source: Source Reefer : Reefer Trends Trends

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 13 THE LATEST ON...

French West Indies banana

The FWI banana needs to save its skin!

There is now a new variety of banana, bedecked in the French Tricolore, since UGPBan, the banana producers union for Guadeloupe and Martinique, launched its new “banane française” brand. As of May 2015, bunches of 3, 4, 5 or 6 bananas strapped with a blue-white-red band, and charged per piece, have been available from five big French chains. More than a mere marketing ploy, this is a necessity for the group to stand out in a context of intensified competition on the European market, but also of devaluation of the product in stores.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 14 November/December 2015 No. 237 THE LATEST ON...

Banana - Europe - Weekly retail prices comparison in 2015

2.40 Spain - Platano 2.20

2.00 Italy 1.80 France

euros/kg 1.60

1.40 Germany

1.20 Spain - Banana 1.00 s1 s4 s7 s10 s13 s16 s19 s22 s25 s28 s31 s34 s37 s40 s43 s46

s = week / Sources: RNM, TWMC, Min. Economia

The call of the Gallic rooster

A whole range of factors - uncertainties over the intensity of the European support programme, more stringent quality requirements coupled with a price race to the bottom in the distribution sector, increasing upstream expenses, falling EU Customs duty on imports of dollar bananas, etc. - have gradually endangered the FWI banana industry. In recogni- tion of this, UGPBan had to try to break away from the pack. While innovation goes hand in hand with segmentation in the fruit and vegetables sector, this is a tough task when it comes to the banana. With limited varietal diversity, less still which can be exploited commercially, standing out from the crowd is difficult. After a few fruitless attempts (promoting the sustainability or local aspects), UGPBan played its trump card of “Frenchness”, a hitherto under-exploited concept (according to surveys, the consumer does not as- sociate the Guadeloupe/Martinique source with France), especially when we take into account the current craze for made-in-France produce. Other examples have shown that promoting the nationalistic concept made sense. We only need to look at the adulation among the Spanish for their dear (and dear it certainly is) Canaries platano, promotion of which has pulled off the feat of converting appearance flaws into guarantees of quality. Another illustration is the growing demand in France for Corsican clementines as

opposed to the Spanish fruit, although the latter is much Sanchez © Catherine more competitive at the retail stage.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 15 THE LATEST ON...

So the French banana is born. While there is no real innovation in selling by the piece (which looks more like a commercial lever to cope with the additional production cost), the promotion of the product is something a bit new. With the strapping, a honeycomb display case, shelf ban- ners, consumer info in brochure form, but also a big sales force (assisting the section manag- ers), every effort is being made to fully person- alise the product in the 500 stores involved in the launch (Leclerc, Intermarché, Cora, Système U, Casino).

Of course, this calls for substantial material and human investment. In the port of Dunkirk (France), where all FWI bananas are unloaded, a

tailor-made industrial facility has been set up which is able to strap the bunches and open-top box 80 fruits, before the ripening cycle. This launch phase required 650 000 euros, with a total cost estimated at 3 million euros by Q1 2017 (professional source). For this first test stage, 24 people were employed in packing. A second 25-strong team is to be set up for the second phase of the project. In all, more than 100 new jobs are expected by the end of June 2016. Twelve promoters across the various regions of France have also been recruited, to facilitate the roll-out and continuation of the concept.

Fruits - France - Weekly retail prices comparison in 2015

3.00 2.80 Clementine 2.60 2.40 2.20 Orange 2.00 euros/kg 1.80 Golden apple 1.60 1.40 1.20 Banana 1.00 s36 s37 s38 s39 s40 s41 s42 s43 s44 s45 s46 s47

s = week / Sources: RNM, CIRAD

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 16 November/December 2015 No. 237 THE LATEST ON...

Marketing to right wrongs

So it’s a marketing tool? True, but more than just that. With this band, UGPBan is aiming to boost banana prices. Having become a hos- tage to the supermarket sector, the product is now restricted to the role of loss leader, to boost the appeal of the chains. We repeat, the banana is not earning its true worth; and this is even truer for the FWI banana.

After a host of climate and sanitary setbacks, the source committed itself, through the “Sustainable Banana Plan” in 2008, to a more eco-friendly form of agriculture. Major efforts have been undertaken in production tech- niques: cover plants, crop rotations, fallow re- mediation, biological pest management, etc. Hence between 2006 and 2012 the 650 FWI producers halved their use of pesticides, in so doing using quantities ten times smaller than certain Central American sources today. © Camille Rannou© Camille The social aspects have also been thoroughly considered. Wages are higher than in any other banana producer country (one day’s salary in Martinique is equivalent to one month in Ecuador), working conditions have been improved, etc. In summary, French social law is So what’s next? being applied for the benefit of Martinique’s and Guadeloupe’s agricultural labourers. Will the call of the Gallic rooster be sufficient for this additional segment to hold its own in the fruit and vegetables section, in spite of a Innovation can also be found in terms of or- very substantial price increase for the consumer? Initially, yes; the re- ganisation. On the strength of complete in- sults are already evident. Yet while the distribution sector seems to be tegration between the upstream and down- playing along at present, it may be more the “novelty” effect than the stream segment (especially by purchasing concept itself. So the challenge is to establish the initiative both in the the Fruidor ripening plant network in 2008), minds of consumers and in the portfolio of the distributors. Since such UGPBan has acquired an advanced traceability an approach can only be adopted if the distribution sector sees a ben- system and implemented a producer aware- efit (greater returns, bigger volumes, image boost, etc.). ness raising approach. The concept of the French banana should gain further commit- Nonetheless, the commercial aspirations of the segment should re- ment from the producers, and boost produc- main limited, since neither production nor the industrial facilities can tion, with a bonus paid to those who meet the be extended much further (the objective being to represent 10 % of (more demanding) quality standards of the the French market, i.e. approximately 60 000 t/year by 2017). brand. In short, there has been definite progress, though not without consequences on Finally, what about the compatibility of such an approach with a the costs incurred and therefore on the com- wider generic promotion of the product, such as the AIB (Banana petitiveness of the biggest private employer Interprofessional Association) is attempting? Such initiatives have al- in the French West Indies (80 % of agricultur- ready worked. We need only cast an eye at the United States and the al jobs in Martinique, 50 % in Guadeloupe) avocado industry, where the Hass Avocado Board has achieved a con- compared to other sources. Hence this band siderable increase in consumption of the product, thanks to both ge- can boost the economic performance of the neric and individual promotion of the various participating sources. industry in the face of socio-environmental After all, does strength not lie in unity?  dumping (especially since European producers do not have access to the Fairtrade label), Camille Rannou, CIRAD by harnessing its assets for the consumer. [email protected]

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 17 THE LATEST ON...

Counter-season table grape

Early slot still buoyant?

European grape imports from the Southern Hemisphere have tended to stagnate in recent years, at around 430 000 t on average. However the early sources, whether Peru or Namibia, are still playing their cards right, especially at the very beginning of the season.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 18 November/December 2015 No. 237 THE LATEST ON...

Booming autumn slot

Brazil, Peru and Namibia, which enter the market Table grapes — EU-28 in autumn, represent a quarter of volumes sold, Imports from early sources with a potential has been on the increase overall in recent years. Hence volumes went from just under 80 000 t in 2010-11 to 115 000 t during the Comparison last campaign. While Brazil saw its table grape production and above all its exports decline, Peru and tonnes 2014-15 average Namibia took over its market share in Europe. This 2013-14 for last is an appealing slot, especially since the European 3 years sources are targeting an early start to the season at the very beginning of summer, no longer seeking Namibia 19 454 + 30 % + 26 % to extend their campaign calendar late.

Peru 70 820 + 27 % + 58 % Brazil in need of Brazil 23 976 - 34 % - 37 % a boost

Total 114 250 + 7 % + 16 % Brazilian shipments have waned in recent years due to economic difficulties. The country is hin- dered by an unfavourable exchange rate and ram- Source: European Customs pant increases in production costs, especially in

terms of labour and logistics. So fresh production is stable at the very most (600 000 t), while has export potential collapsed, in spite of the diversification efforts made in production. Hence shipments Table grapes - EU-28 have been quartered in less than ten years, going Imports from early sources from more than 80 000 t in 2008, across all destina- (Brazil, Peru, Namibia) tions, to 50 000 t in 2012 and just 30 000 t last year (23 000 t of which for Europe); and probably 20 000 t 120 000 at the very most this campaign. The new Abrafrutas collective, established just over one year ago, will at- 100 000 tempt to boost the fruit exports dynamic alongside Apex, the Brazilian fruits and vegetables promotion 80 000 agency. The collective took advantage of the Fruit Attraction trade show held in Madrid in October to 60 000 launch its signature “Frutas do Brasil: Gifted by the

tonnes Sun”, which will be promoted in Europe, the United 40 000 States and the Middle East, with the objective of doubling fruit shipments by 2020. 20 000

0 Big potential still expected from Peru 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Table grape cultivation is continuing to expand in Source: European Customs Peru, especially in the north of the country, mainly in the Piura zone where the production calendar is early. Its first grapes are harvested in October until

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 19 THE LATEST ON...

November, whereas the Ica zone supplies the markets from late November to late January. The stock already extends over 4 900 ha (+ 14 % from 2013), yet production should see further steep increases in the coming years, since in total 6 000 ha have been planted in this zone, which less than ten years ago had practically no table grape surface areas. The plantations are also considerably more modern than in the South, with vineyards equipped with drip-irrigation systems able to obtain yields of 30 to 40 t/ha. Conversely, development is slower in the South, though it is nonetheless ongoing (9 020 ha, i.e. + 3 %).

The main variety planted is still Red Globe, though seedless varieties are becoming established in the North, especially Crimson Seedless, Flame Seedless, Sugraone, Midnight Beauty, Sable Seedless, Red Superior Seedless, Scarlotta Seedless, as well as brand new American varieties such as Adora Seedless or Autumncrisp Seedless.

Export volumes reportedly exceeded 272 000 t in 2014-15, i.e. beating the South African export potential (250 000 t). Furthermore, Namibia, which kicks off the African campaign, further increased its European market share last year, approaching the 20 000-t mark 

Cécilia Céleyrette, consultant [email protected]

Table grapes - Peru - Exports

300

250

200

150

000 tonnes 100

0 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Source: SENASA

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 20 November/December 2015 No. 237 THE LATEST ON...

Calendar and public holidays

2016 set to be a bright year © Denis Loeillet

While fruit and vegetable production is closely tied to the movements of the seasons, trade is conversely dependent on the holidays and festivities punctuating the calendar. While certain events have an obvious impact, others have repercussions that are sometimes more difficult to discern, in both the upstream and downstream segments. Furthermore, managing them is often a tricky business, since the dates can occasionally vary greatly from one year to another.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 21 THE LATEST ON...

Easter in March, and a warm or ill-fated April…

While certain dates are fixed, others are variable, for in- stance the date of Easter is set according to the lunar calendar and so is mobile in relation to the Gregorian calendar (first Sunday following the first full moon of spring). This year, we will need to reckon with a Catholic liturgical calendar that begins early, with the Easter holiday starting in late March (27 March). And Easter is often marked by big family meals, with high consumption of certain products such as asparagus or avocado. Hence while this holiday will promote trade in March, it will have less of an impact for local produce, the supply of which will still be limited. Demand could switch to imported products, but also to processed products. The planting campaigns of certain vegetables, especially in the Mediterranean, will definitely not be brought forward, as is sometimes the case to antic- ipate this event.

Meanwhile April, already commercially handicapped by the school holidays from 2 April to 2 May (as opposed to 10 April to 10 May in 2015), will not have the boost of the Easter holidays, and so may only be driven by the spring weather or in-store promotions.

Conversely, May should be virtually free from disruption © Denis Loeillet in 2016, with the 1 May (Labour Day) and 8 May (1945

Armistice) holidays falling on a Sunday, and long holiday weekends which will start only at the beginning of the

© Denis Loeillet month (Thursday 5 May for Ascension and Sunday 15 May for Pentecost). Note that the Orthodox Easter holidays, which are widely observed in Eastern Europe and especially in Russia, will this year be one month later than the Catholic calendar, with Easter falling on 1 May. Indeed, the Russian Orthodox Church continues to celebrate all its holidays according to the Julian calendar.

Muslim and Jewish holidays set to have little impact on production this year

Other holidays, such as Shrove Tuesday and the Carnivals, also have implications both on the consumption and import markets. They are particularly observed in North European countries, as well as in South America and the Caribbean, creating supply troughs in Europe for two to three weeks after their celebration, depending on the sources concerned. However these events are already pre- dictable since Shrove Tuesday precedes the beginning of Lent, i.e. 40 days before Easter (9 February 2016). It will co- incide with the beginning of the Chinese New Year festiv-

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 22 November/December 2015 No. 237 THE LATEST ON...

ities (8 February 2016), which this time around are usher- ing in the year of the fire monkey. This holiday also draws

in large volumes from a number of sources. © Denis Loeillet

The Muslim calendar, which is set on the lunar calendar, is pushed back every year. The celebrations are often widely observed in countries practicing this religion, which generally results in a fairly considerable fall in shipments and production work. However, Ramadan should have little impact this year, since it is due to start on 6 June and end on 6 July, just before vegetables are planted for the winter campaigns. Similarly, Eid al-Adha, set to fall on 11 September, should not affect the season, since shipments generally begin from October. The New Year holiday (Raas Assana) will fall on 1 October, to celebrate the beginning of the year 1438 in the Islamic calendar.

The Jewish holidays are set to follow a later calendar, with Purim on 24 March and Passover from Saturday 23 to Saturday 30 April. The Rosh Hashana holidays will be held on Monday 3 and Tuesday 4 October. Yom Kippur will be celebrated on Tuesday 11 and Wednesday 12 October of the Gregorian calendar.

2016 a leap year, following on

This year we will also need to reckon with the leap week from the end of 2015, the famous week 53 which will push back the week numbering in 2016. This oddity of the calendar, governed by an ISO standard, is actually designed to compensate for the discrepancy between the 364-day administrative calendar (52 weeks of 7 days) and the Earth’s 365-and-a-quarter-day rotation. The date of the first day of the week is pushed back by one day every year, or by two days in leap years, to prevent the first week of the year from ending up completely out of synch with the previous year. However this modification is not without consequences in positioning certain ac- tions/events, since week 53 of 2015 will need to be compared with week 52 of 2014 and so on for the whole year (2016-01/2015-02, etc.).

The other major event of this year will be the incorpo- ration of 29 February, since 2016 will be a leap year, and so will have 366 days. Here too the objective is to align the calendar as closely as possible with the actual duration of the tropical year which defines the seasons. As this lasts 365.242199 days, and not exactly 365 days, an additional day needs to be introduced periodically so that on average the calendar lasts the same time as the tropical year 

Cécilia Céleyrette, consultant [email protected]

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 23 Citrus

A report by Eric Imbert Citrus Citrus

Contents

p. 26 Mediterranean citruses 2015-16 harvest forecasts — Melting away...

p. 58 World citrus market — Prudence called for more than ever

p. 67 World orange juice market — Change is nearly upon us!

p. 72 Citrus pests and diseases

p. 73 Citrus cultivation

p. 75 Citrus harvesting and storage

p. 76 Main citrus varieties

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 24 November/December 2015 No. 237 Packed with vitaminsTHE SIGN OF QUALITY An extra treat!

ORANGES • CLEMENTINES • LEMONS • GRAPEFRUITS

Grand Saint Charles - 405 avenue de Milan • BP 15142 • 66031 Perpignan Cedex

Tel. +33 (0) 4 68 55 70 70 • Fax +33 (0) 4 68 85 01 83 Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD E-mail− Toute reproduction : [email protected] interdite • www.fontestad.com CLOSE-UP

Mediterranean citruses 2015-16 harvest forecasts Melting away...

Mediterranean citrus production in 2015-16 will bear the scars of the heatwaves which hit the whole basin in spring and summer. Only certain countries where planting has been going strong in recent seasons are expected to yield production of a level equal to or greater than 2014-15. Spain, the increasingly stand-out leader in the region, in terms of both production and export, is among the hardest hit countries.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 26 November/December 2015 No. 237 Take a stand, choose your brand

A B L I L E A 1972 V

Company R established

A A

3 6 A 2 WAREHOUSES 5 D A Y S Rungis (94), Plan d’Orgon (13)

8 SALES REPS

2 PACKING MACHINES

3000 t of grapefruits imported every year

4 SOURCES (Israel, Florida, South Africa, Turkey)

8 EXCLUSIVE BRANDS

Contenu publié par l’ObservatoireGEORGESGE ORdes MarchésGES HEHELFER du LFCIRADER −RRUNGIS TouteUNGI reproductionS / 1 avenueav interditeenu de l’Europe - Ent. 133 - 94538 Rungis Cedex / +33 1 45 12 36 50 GEORGES HELFER PLAN D’ORGON / Z.I. du Pont - 717 avenue des Vergers - 13750 Plan d’Orgon / +33 4 90 73 19 19 www.georgeshelfer.com / [email protected] CLOSE-UP

A “lean” Spanish harvest

Spain felt the full force of these heatwaves. Its harvest should fall to 5.7 million tonnes, Citrus - Main producer countries down approximately 20 % on the previous Production season and the average. We need to go 30 back six years to find such a modest level, considering that since the start of the 25 decade, production was 1.0 to 1.7 million 20 tonnes greater than this season’s forecast. All the production regions are affected to 15 various degrees, the mainstay Valencian Community and Murcia, the leading prov- 10 million tonnes million ince for the lemon, seeing their harvest 5 Mediterranean China drop more considerably than Andalusia USA Brazil (down by just over 20 % from last season, 0 as opposed to just over 10 %). No varietal

group has been spared, with easy peelers 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 and the orange paying a heavier toll than Sources: FAO, USDA, CLAM the lemon (approximately 20 % down on average, as opposed to 13 % down).

Citrus - Spain Exports slightly less Production and exports affected 8 7 Fruit size, bigger than the previous season 6 thanks to the good rains of the late sum- 5 mer and autumn, should enable consider- 4 able a rise in the packed yield. Hence ex- 3 porters are hoping to be able to limit the

fall in shipments to 8 % below average. This tonnes million 2 Production might seem a modest percentage, yet it 1 Exports amounts to 600 000 t, enough to guarantee 0 good price levels in the EU-28, where more than 90 % of Spanish volumes are sold. This 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 cyclical downturn due to extreme weather conditions will interrupt the surge by Spain, Source: CLAM which has greatly strengthened its position as the world’s number one citrus exporter in recent years. The Iberian giant has strung together export records (four in five years!), with shipments rising by practically one million tonnes from the second half of the previous decade, peaking at more than 4.1 million tonnes in 2014-15. This success was largely due, in recent years, to the late (Lanelate) and super-late Navels (Rhode, Barnfield, Powell and other Chisletts) coming to prominence, enabling the marketing period to be extended by offering consumers a very high-quality and abundant supply until early summer.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 28 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Maturity imminent for the orange, but developments to be expected for easy peelers and late lemons

Orange production, after increasing from 700 000 to 800 000 t in recent years, should start to stabilise, with the large surface areas planted up until the middle of the last decade reaching maturity. Conversely, volumes of late easy peelers should continue to increase, though in more modest proportions. The need to cap the large quantities of Naveline and Nules clementine, which overlap, is making itself felt, and the end-of-campaign easy peelers slot is buoyant. Asaja is requesting from the authorities a subsidised plan to convert 10 000 ha. However, there is a lack of appropriate plant stock. On the one hand, we are seeing confirmation that the triploid varieties developed by IVIA, such as Safor and Garbi, do not seem to be satisfactory. On the other hand, the star varieties are under licence, i.e. expensive and available in limited quantities. The planting quo- tas have already been reached for Nadorcott: approximately 4 700 ha for Spain and Portugal according to the Spanish press, i.e. a production potential of around 150 000 t at present; and they have actually been exceeded for Or. Again, according to the Spanish press, there is approximately 3 500 ha in place, as opposed to the 2 000 ha authorised (counting plantations to be regularised by paying a fee of 66 euros per tree and 0.03 euro/kg sold). Uprooting operations will need to be carried out. And then there is Tango, development of which remains dependent on the forthcoming legal decision regarding its initial origin. The Verna lemon should also see its production increase considerably over the coming years, with the good economic results of recent years revitalising planting, though in modest

proportions. © Eric Imbert

Late Navel — Harvest calendar D J F M A M J Navel Lane Late Rhode Summer Navel Barnfield Powell Summer navel Chislett Summer Navel

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 29 CLOSE-UP

Production boom due to the “Maroc Vert” plan will have to wait a little longer

The weather has also been capricious in Morocco, creating a chain of events with conflicting consequences on the © Eric Imbert 2015-16 harvest. While the abundant rain of autumn 2014 had a highly positive effect on the water tables, the heatwaves of late May and July hit flowering and fruit-setting hard, in particular in the most exposed zones such as Souss, the Marrakech region (Haouz) and certain zones of Gharb. Hence despite large surface areas planted under the “Maroc Vert” plan entering production or reaching their potential, next step is to win back the Community market, thanks to a the 2 million tonnes expected represent only a limited wider varietal range of extremely competitive easy peelers, rise of just under 10 % from last season and the four-year with the development of the supply of early varieties such average. as Nules, which matures in the second week of October, and has been widely planted in recent years. The objective is to develop commercial platforms to ensure a constant sup- An overhauled, more efficient ply and even quality. The quest is on for the funding necessary to implement these structures, via the development structure for large-scale production of partnerships with European importers. The local market is also being targeted, with the objective of streamlining an While the boom in quantities is keeping us waiting, organ- industry teeming with intermediaries, which capture an ex- isational changes are ongoing. The measures aimed at reg- cessive share of added value. According to the Moroccan ulating volumes and improving quality, implemented in press, out of the 4 to 5 dirhams paid by the consumer for 2014-15, will be renewed. Their relevance was demonstrat- a kilo of oranges, just 1.7 dirhams currently returns to the ed last season, with profitability achieved once more on the producer. Efforts will also be continued to overhaul the up- Russian market, always of prime importance, and which has stream segment, by increasing the yield of smallholdings, now become extremely difficult because of the collapse of still very much under-producing, by strengthening the the rouble. Efforts made to increase the share in alternative network of the Moroccan Producers Association. The inter- markets will also be continued. Morocco consolidated its professional association “Maroc Citrus” needs to play an in- position significantly in North America in 2014-15, by boost- creasingly active part in this renewal of the Moroccan citrus ing its shipments to both the United States and Canada. The industry.

Evolution of Moroccan citrus sector

2 900 2006 118 105 2015 2 000 Maroc Vert objective 81.2

1 250 1 200

542 468

Production (000 t) Exports (000 t) Planted areas (000 t)

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 30 November/December 2015 No. 237 Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite CLOSE-UP

A breaker on the horizon

This approach is as bold and well-structured as it is necessary. The big ambitions of the “Maroc Vert” plan in terms of surface area expansion have already been achieved, and even exceeded three to four to years ahead of the schedule. The Moroccan cultivation area at present reportedly covers 118 000 ha, i.e. 13 000 ha more than in the initial forecast, which should make it possible to easily achieve the production objective of 2.9 million tonnes (nearly one million tonnes more than the average of recent years). While replanting did not live up to the expected 2 000 ha per year, surface area expansion exceeded expectations, especially in Gharb and the north of the country. Hence the export potential should exceed one million tonnes in the medium term.

A record season in Israel, perhaps...

Israel should be one of the few Mediterranean sources to enjoy a bumper harvest, indeed one of the biggest seen in a decade, with 600 000 t. However, the heatwave also struck the Eastern Mediterranean, with particularly scorch- ing temperatures in mid-May and August. In addition, the effects of the major uprooting operations carried out as part of the restructuring of the cultivation stock in favour of the most profitable varieties will continue to drag orange production downward, and grapefruit production even more so. The latter citrus family has been the main victim of this programme in recent seasons, to the point of losing its position as the number one produce by volume in the Israeli citrus industry as of 2014-15. However, the young easy peeler orchards reaching their potential should more than offset the expected fall for the grapefruit and orange, if the consequences of the violent storms which battered the Sharon plain in late October are not too serious. Surface areas of this varietal group stabilised at approximately 9 500 ha (including more than 5 000 ha of Or), with no planting in 2014-15 (Shmita, a sabbatical year for agriculture, which occurs every seven years).

Citrus – Israel – Planted area survey Citrus share by hectares species species Easy peelers 9 417 48 % Or > 5 000 Orange 4 000 21 % Grapefruit 3 300 17 % Lemon, lime 2 144 11 % Various 600 3 % Total 19 461 © Eric Imbert Source: Plant Board 2014

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 32 November/December 2015 No. 237 Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite CLOSE-UP

Egypt: a discreet boom in surface areas, for the moment Citrus - Egypt Within less than ten years, Egypt has become the Evolution of planted areas number three exporter in the Mediterranean, 200 with shipments for the first time exceeding 1.3 180 million tonnes in 2014-15. The fall in produc- 160 tion of approximately 15 % expected in 2015-16 140 does not reflect the dynamic of the cultivation 120 area. Again, of course, the spring and summer 100 heatwaves are responsible. However there is 80 no question over the ongoing rise to promi- 000 hectares 60 nence of Egyptian orange production over the 40 coming years. Planting has continued briskly, with in particular modern production facilities 20 in the desert, which now make up one third of 0 the surface areas of the country. Producers con- 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 tinue to favour this citrus family, its technical Source: FAO mastery well established and which yields good economic results. Exports could maintain a level similar to 2014-15.

Turkey: an export sector under pressure Citrus - Turkey Average Customs value The initial information, still to be confirmed, regarding Turkey, reports production being fairly 800 World: similar to last season. The Aegean region registered 700 14/15 a considerable shortfall of more than 20 % because vs of frost, though it represents no more than ap- 600 11/12 proximately 10 % of the total harvest. Conversely, 500 = - 17 % this sector does not seem to be in as good health as production. The country’s three main markets, 400 World namely Russia, Iraq and Ukraine, which together 300 absorb nearly 70 % of the country’s exports, are in USD/tonne Iraq a difficult situation. The export sector, which gen- Romania 200 erally depends on prepaid purchasing from the 100 Russia producers to ensure the supply, is facing a complex period. The bankruptcy of the leader Elginsan in 0 2014-15 is a clear illustration of this, as is the 20 % fall in Customs value in two years, in a context of 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 rising production costs. As for the cultivation stock, Source: Customs producers are continuing their varietal diversification approach, with a view to significantly extend- ing the production calendar.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 34 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

The Mediterranean: citruses on the up Two thirds of world exports

Orange — World trade Citrus — World trade Market Market tonnes 2013-14 tonnes 2013-14 share share Total 5 800 000 Total 12 404 000 CLAM countries* 3 600 000 62 % CLAM countries* 7 896 000 64 % Spain 1 559 000 27 % Spain 3 757 000 30 % South Africa 1 109 000 19 % South Africa 1 674 000 13 % Egypt 1 100 000 19 % China 1 514 000 12 % United States 508 000 9 % Turkey 1 473 000 12 % Greece 358 000 6 % Egypt 1 180 000 10 %

Easy peelers — World trade Market tonnes 2013-14 share Total 4 192 000 CLAM countries* 2 814 000 67 % Spain 1 516 000 36 % China 738 000 18 % Domergue © Régis Turkey 525 000 13 % Morocco 479 000 11 % Pakistan 362 000 9 %

Lemon** — World trade Citrus - World trade Market tonnes 2013-14 and Mediterranean market share share Total 1 672 000 21.0 70% CLAM countries* 1 137 000 68 % Spain 635 000 38 % 18.0 60% Turkey 418 000 25 % South Africa 198 000 12 % 15.0 12.8 50% 12.5 Argentina 153 000 9 % 11.0 11.0 12.2 12.4 United States 127 000 8 % 12.0 11.6 40% 10.1 10.9 9.7 9.0 8.9 30% Grapefruit*** — World trade Market tonnes 2013-14 share 6.0 20% Total 734 000 Trade (million tonnes) CLAM countries* 344 000 47 % 3.0 Mediterranean share (%) 10% South Africa 218 000 30 % 0.0 0% Turkey 178 000 24 % United States 147 000 20 %

Israel 76 000 10 % 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Spain 47 000 6 % Sources: CLAM, FAO, Trademap

* Algeria, Cyprus, Egypt, Spain, France, Gaza, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey / ** excl. lime / ***excl. shaddock

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 35 CLOSE-UP

Other countries in the zone

After a campaign of major shortfall, the Italian citrus harvest should return to an average level in 2015-16. From a structural viewpoint, the Sicilian citrus growing revitalisa-

tion plan is taking shape, with in particular the support Domergue © Régis of European funds (2014-2020 programme). It is aimed in particular at varietal conversion with a two-fold objective. On the one hand, urgent action is needed to combat tristeza, which has become omnipresent (affecting more than 30 000 ha). On the other hand, competitiveness needs to be strengthened, by planting varieties which are more at- tractive (Mandared, etc.) or which will help extend the calendar (adding “new” Tarocco cultivars to provide production from December to May).

Cypriot producers are at great risk of going through another difficult campaign. Production registered one of its best levels in recent years, despite the drought remaining intense. However, the impossibility of trading with Russia, a market which absorbs between 45 and 60 % of easy peeler volumes, will continue to limit export options, while Mandora is increasingly struggling on the EU market. The breakthrough to Middle Eastern markets, tangible in 2014- 15, should nonetheless remain limited in scale. Tunisian exporters should be able to maintain Maltaise exports of approximately 20 000 to 25 000 t, despite a considerable fall in production of approximately 15 %. © Régis Domergue © Régis Slightly less aggressive than in 2014-15 in terms of competing produce

The context seems slightly less competitive than last season in terms of the other heavyweights of the fruits section. Retail prices for the apple are registering a level approximately 10 % above average because of the slight shortfall in the European harvest (- 5 %). However this situation bears watching, since stocks were slow to clear in certain countries such as France (stock 7 % bigger than last year for Golden, and 15 % bigger for Gala in mid-November). Banana retail prices are also slightly less aggressive than in 2014-15 (+ 5 to + 10 % on the big European consumption markets, except for the United Kingdom and Spain). The El Niño phenomenon, set to hit Latin America hard, could have consequences on the supply over the coming months, although there are no problems to report at present.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 36 November/December 2015 No. 237 Next to you since 1975 BANAGRUMES - S.A.S au capital de 266 800 € - RCS Créteil 702 020 256 020 702 - S.A.S au capital de 266 800 € RCS Créteil BANAGRUMES

banagrumes©

PRIX DE LA • Citrus specialist P.M.E. 2014 • Bananas, avocados and mangoes latest generation air pressured ripening rooms • Peaches, nectarines, cherries, plums and grapes… www.briofruits.com • Exotics and off season fruits www.banagrumes.com

ContenuFruileg publié par l’Observatoire - CP 40332 des Marchés - du 5 CIRAD rue − deToute Montpellierreproduction interdite - Bât. D2 - F-94622 Rungis M.I.N. Cedex - FRANCE Tél. +33 (0)1 45 12 28 40 - Fax : +33 (0)1 45 60 52 34 - [email protected]

-IND-BRIO-AP-210X297-Fructidor 2016_V2.indd 1 04/12/2015 15:23 CLOSE-UP

Russian market difficult again

In this context of production shortfall, the diversification markets will play Citrus - Russia - Imports a more minor role than usual for the tonnes 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 key suppliers to the Community mar- Turkey 174 744 185 287 170 949 197 762 302 213 ket (with the exception of Morocco of Morocco 189 410 203 491 192 568 287 679 139 082 course). This is fortunate indeed, since the context appears to be even more Pakistan 75 061 95 724 79 753 74 435 100 297 difficult than last season in Russia. The China 59 832 72 681 79 186 82 172 77 382 rouble has depreciated further against Others 86 891 83 120 122 640 104 108 81 210 the dollar (-25 % in early October from last season’s average rate), yet its great- Spain 53 439 56 455 52 498 39 371 - er stability is an asset for establishing a Source: national Customs schedule. The resulting boom in retail prices could trigger another decrease in imports, following on from the fall of just over 10 % already registered last season for a flag- ship produce, easy peelers. The increasingly distinct switch by the Russian supermarket sector to direct purchasing from exporters is another pressuring factor on prices. Furthermore, Community producers will remain under the embargo implemented in 2014 until July 2016 at least (i.e. throughout the season). The support measures implemented by the European Commission, which last season granted an overall budget of 160 million euros across all agricultural produce, will remain in force and enable 81 750 t of citruses normally aimed at the Russian market to be picked green or left on the trees (55 450 t for Spain, 11 850 t for Cyprus, 7 950 t for Greece and just © Régis Domergue over 3 000 t for Croatia and Italy).

Limited prospects Easy peelers - California - Planting in the United States

1 847 Little in the way of change should be expected either from the US market, where imports of Mediterranean citruses peak at between 60 000 1 449 and 80 000 t for the main family, i.e. easy peel- 1 265 ers (Morocco having gained some of Spain’s market share in recent years). Local production 896 of this varietal group will for the first time approach 800 000 t, thanks to young plantations

hectares of “cuties” in California reaching their potential. 498 The US harvest, which doubled in under ten 334 310 years despite the collapse of Florida, should not 115 grow so quickly over the coming years. The rate of planting in California, which exceeded 1 600 ha per year on average between 2009 and 2011, has collapsed since the detection of greening 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 in 2012, to only around one hundred at the last Source: CDFA survey in 2014 

Eric Imbert, CIRAD [email protected]

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 38 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Last minute: Turkish citruses crashing?

What sanctions will Citrus — Turkey — Exports Russia take against 2013-14 2014-15 Turkey, after the seri- 000 tonnes To Market To Market Total Total ous incident which oc- Russia share Russia share curred in the skies over Lemon 414 111 27 % 491 133 27 % the Turkey-Syria border? Grapefruit 177 43 24 % 146 39 27 % The only decision made, Orange 356 67 19 % 304 88 29 % at the time of going to Easy peelers 526 194 37 % 618 303 49 % press, has been step- Total 1 474 414 28 % 1 558 563 36 % ping up the sanitary in- Source: Trademap spections on all Turkish agricultural produce, with Russia arguing that 15 % is “non-compliant” with Russian regulations. Will the Kremlin be able to take things further, having already cut itself off from Community agricultural produce and with the country highly dependent on imports for its food supply?

The stakes are colossal for the citrus trade; first and foremost for Turkey, Russia being its number one market by volume with 400 000 to 560 000 t of exports

Citrus - Turkey - Exports

1.8

1.6 Rest of the world © Eric Imbert 1.4 Russia 1.2 in the past two seasons, i.e. 28 to 36 % of 1.0 total volumes. The damage to an already much weakened sector (see article) could 0.8 be considerable. The other Mediterranean 0.6 sources too could suffer, since large vol- million tonnes million umes are involved, which could affect 0.4 the stability of certain markets. The West 0.2 of the Community should be relatively spared in terms of the majority of citruses, 0.0 as the varietal range and service provided by Turkey are not up to the standard of the

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 traditional local players such as Spain. Source: Trademap

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 39 CLOSE-UP

Easy peelers

The 2014-15 season once more demonstrat- the planting efforts of the “Maroc Vert” pri- ed the great stability of volumes sold on the marily involve this citrus family (early clem- Community market. For the fifth consecu- entines such as Nules and late hybrids such tive season, sales have been stuck between as Nadorcott or Nour). Clementine volumes 1 560 000 t and 1 610 000 t, with slight growth should be very similar to the very average lev- from the Western markets offsetting the slight els of 2014-15. There will be a relatively mod- drop by the Eastern ones. The significant fall est rise for Nour and Nadorcott, though the in the Spanish supply expected in 2015-16 predicted exports are for the first time in ex- could well upset the balance of this ultra-ma- cess of 100 000 t for this variety. Availability ture market. The Iberian giant, which on its of Israeli Or should reach a good level, though own provides more than 80 % of the supply, the record on the horizon may not be beaten registered its lowest production level for a because of the violent storms which struck in decade, with a harvest of barely 1.9 million late October. The top-up clementine supply to tonnes, 20 % below average and last season’s the French market from Corsica will be consid- level. The expected export downturn will be erably below average, and even further below highly significant, although a bit less severe last year’s record season (production reaching (- 13 %), with the size range up thanks to the 33 000 t for the first time). Conversely, the size good autumn rains and lower load on the range is set for a good level. trees. The early and mid-season varieties were hardest hit, with production falls estimated at The scenario for this 2015-16 season should between 25 and 30 % on the previous season comprise two main parts. The supply, limited (including 26 % for the highly iconic variety during the first part of the campaign, should Nules). The downturn should be less marked, maintain a below-normal level until January. though nonetheless considerable, at the end Prices, 10 to 15 % above average from the of the season (Ortanique stable, and - 10 % for beginning of the season to mid-November, the top-end late hybrids, with the young or- will probably maintain a high level through- chards reaching maturity partially offsetting out this period. The shelf life of the merchan- the adverse effects of the climate). dise will need to be taken into consideration however, as the autumn was rather rainy with Morocco, the main top-up source for the very high temperatures thereafter. The supply Community, will have an export potential should return to a level closer to normal dur- barely greater than last season - disappoint- ing the latter part of the season. ing given the increase in surface areas - as © Eric Imbert

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 40 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

The mark of the Spanish shortfall

Easy peelers — Export forecast Petits agrumes - Méditerranée - Exportations for CLAM countries average 2015-16 3 000 000 for the compared to 2015-16 2014-15 2 500 tonnes 4 last 2014-15 average seasons 2 000 Spain 1 405 1 613 1 571 - 13 % - 11 % Morocco 365 345 370 + 6 % - 1 % 1 500 2011-12/2014-15 average: Corsica 23 31 25 - 26 % - 9 % 2 803 000 t Israel 92 92 83 0 % + 11 % tonnes000 1 000 Turkey 511 618 511 - 17 % 0 % 500 Italy 84 80 86 + 4 % - 2 % Cyprus 20 24 47 - 15 % - 57 % 0 Greece 89 85 81 + 5 % + 10 % Egypt 35 36 29 - 2 % + 19 % 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Total 2 624 2 923 2 803 - 10 % - 6 % Source : CLAM Source: CLAM

Easy peelers – EU-28 – Consumption Easy peelers - World - Consumption in 2014 Evolution kg/capita 2014 6.0 on average trend 6.0 4.9 Germany 4.5 - 0.4 = France 4.9 - = 3.6 3.5 United Kingdom 4.8 - 0.1 = 2.9 3.2 Scandinavia 5.3 + 0.4  2.3 Aver. West EU-28* 4.9 = Poland 2.8 - 0.1 =

Czech Rep. 4.3 + 1.4 = kg/capita Hungary 1.6 - 1.3 = Baltic States 4.4 + 1.5 = USA Japan Russia Canada Romania 2.5 - 0.4  Ukraine East EU-28 Bulgaria 2.5 - 0.4 = East Other Slovakia 4.1 + 1.2 = West EU-28* Aver. East EU-28 2.9 = Sources: Customs, Trademap, professionals *excl. producer countries / Sources: Customs, Trademap, professionals

Easy peelers - EU-28 Easy peelers - EU-28 Winter season imports Winter season main supplier countries 1 592 1 710 1 533 1 5851 604 1 591 1 600 1 518 1 523 1 550 1 400 Spain 1 200 1 000 Morocco 800 600 Italy 000 tonnes 000 tonnes 400 200 Israel 0

06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 41 EASY PEELERS - Production (2013-14) EASY PEELERS - Imports (2013-14)

World production 32.6 million tonnes World imports 4.2 million tonnes Russia + Central Europe + Eastern Europe

26% North America 44% 20% 7% Mediterranean EU-27 13% 62% + Switzerland + Norway Asia

Asia Source: FAO, CLAM, USDA / Graphics: Chez Vincent, Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source: Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source:

Easy peelers - The 10 leading producer countries Easy peelers - The 8 leading importer countries 000 tonnes 2013-2014 000 tonnes 2013-2014 China 18 500 Russia 845 Spain 2 204 Germany 388 Morocco 1 162 Brazil 938 France 360 Turkey 910 United Kingdom 298 Japan 900 Netherlands 188 Iran 837 United States 182 United States 793 Iraq 182 Italy 760 Ukraine 158 Egypt 725 Source: national Customs Sources: FAO, professionals USA - Imports - Main supplier countries 000 tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Total 117.3 152.2 146.5 150.1 181.9 - EASY PEELERS - Exports (2013-14) Total N. Hemis., incl. 67.5 86.3 66.9 65.3 85.8 84.4 Morocco 15.1 20.9 16.2 11.5 37.7 44.4 Spain 44.9 60.8 47.5 47.6 40.5 32.2 Israel 1.7 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.5 4.4 World exports 4.2 million tonnes Mexico 5.8 3.5 1.1 3.9 5.1 2.2 Total S. Hemis., incl. 61.5 65.9 77.7 84.8 96.1 - Chile 35.5 43.3 53.5 60.2 52.8 - Peru 14.6 14.3 17.2 19.6 30.1 - South Africa 7.8 4.5 7.0 3.4 7.7 - 67% Uruguay - - - - 4.5 - Australia 3.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.0 - Local production 601 643 711 660 700 792 Mediterranean (tangerine, tangelo) 7% 27% California 359 385 472 472 533 660 Florida 229 247 232 182 161 126 South Asia America Arizona 13 11 7 6 5 6 Source: US Customs, code 080520 Canada - Imports - Main supplier countries Source: FAO, CLAM, USDA / Graphics: Chez Vincent, Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source: 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total 124.1 123.9 123.9 129.9 129.7 123.4 Easy peelers - The 8 leading exporter countries Total N. Hemis., incl. 106.5 105.9 103.2 104.5 104.9 94.7 Morocco 50.3 45.4 38.6 37.3 33.8 28.1 000 tonnes 2013-2014 China 32.0 29.7 28.5 28.7 33.4 21.5 Spain 1 516 Spain 2.3 3.8 7.6 11.7 7.5 18.4 China 749 United States 17.8 22.4 22.4 17.0 20.2 16.7 Turkey 525 Japan 2.1 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.6 Total S. Hemis., incl. 17.0 18.0 20.7 25.4 24.8 28.7 Morocco 479 Peru 4.4 6.5 8.9 11.1 10.5 13.1 Pakistan 362 South Africa 4.5 3.2 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.9 South Africa 149 Argentina 2.6 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.0 3.9 Uruguay 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.9 2.4 Argentina 90 Chile 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 Italy 85 Brazil 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.9 0.3 - Sources: national Customs, professionals Source: COMTRADE, code 080520 Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 42 November/December 2015 No. 237 European Union - Imports - Main supplier countries Japan - Imports - Main supplier countries 000 tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total 1 697.8 1 750.0 1 776.9 1 717.5 1 763.4 - Total 9.0 10.9 21.3 20.3 16.9 10.2 Total N. Hemis., incl.* 1 522.7 1 592.2 1 612.8 1 558.1 1 599.9 1 605.2 Total N. Hemis., incl. 7.2 9.3 17.7 16.7 13.7 8.0 Spain 1 157.6 1 295.7 1 305.7 1 284.1 1 277.0 1 250.0 USA 7.1 9.2 17.6 16.6 12.4 7.5 Italy 114.2 90.5 80.6 64.1 104.4 98.4 Israel 1.3 0.4 Morocco 91.7 75.1 91.4 77.5 66.1 81.8 Taiwan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Israel 36.3 29.0 42.7 40.6 41.4 56.2 Total S. Hemis., incl. 1.8 1.6 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.2 Greece 31.5 36.1 31.8 40.1 48.9 50.2 Australia 1.2 1.0 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.6 Turkey 64.3 50.3 45.6 36.8 46.6 41.1 New Zealand 0.5 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 Cyprus 4.1 2.8 5.4 5.5 5.2 12.1 Chile 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 - Portugal 13.6 8.1 5.8 6.9 6.9 6.4 Source: Japanese Customs, code 080520 Pakistan 2.3 1.1 1.2 0.3 1.5 1.6 Egypt 5.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 1.7 - South-East Asia - Main markets Total S. Hemis., incl. 177.4 157.9 164.1 159.3 163.5 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South Africa 65.1 57.8 70.0 80.9 84.9 Total 433.8 393.8 463.6 536.9 423.1 448.7 Peru 33.2 41.9 48.5 44.1 47.6 Thailand 38.7 30.8 73.8 144.8 142.6 148.2 Uruguay 37.2 24.2 19.4 15.4 16.9 Indonesia 189.0 160.3 182.3 179.4 76.3 116.4 Malaysia 65.9 75.3 72.8 59.3 77.8 60.3 Argentina 39.8 32.1 24.0 15.8 12.0 Philippines 56.6 41.8 46.7 72.6 57.6 49.8 Chile 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.5 China 36.5 34.0 37.5 31.7 25.4 34.5 *Extra-EU imports and introductions from main EU producer countries (Spain, Italy, Greece) / Singapore 16.8 19.5 19.8 17.5 21.7 20.4 Source: EUROSTAT, code 080520 Vietnam 25.8 21.2 20.1 21.0 12.2 12.0 Other West European countries - Main markets Sri Lanka 4.5 10.9 10.5 10.6 9.5 7.1 000 tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Source: COMTRADE, code 080520 Total 69.3 71.1 69.0 72.7 70.2 73.0 Switzerland 41.3 40.8 41.4 43.4 40.8 42.7 Central Asia - Main markets Norway 27.0 29.2 26.6 28.2 28.3 29.1 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Iceland 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Total 49.3 49.6 68.9 77.0 96.4 82.3 Source: COMTRADE, code 080520 Kazakhstan 28.8 40.0 51.6 65.9 84.2 72.3 Kyrgyzstan 8.1 7.0 7.3 10.2 10.3 10.0 Russia - Imports - Main supplier countries Azerbaijan 9.5 2.6 10.1 0.9 1.9 - 000 tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Source: COMTRADE, code 080520 Total 660.4 739.5 762.8 838.1 845.2 - Total N. Hemis., incl. 569.0 639.4 696.8 697.6 785.5 700.2 Persian Gulf - Main markets Turkey 162.7 174.7 185.3 170.9 197.8 302.2 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Morocco 167.7 189.4 203.5 192.6 287.7 139.1 Total 161.9 265.0 329.7 286.8 354.9 403.0 Pakistan 82.9 75.1 95.7 79.8 74.4 100.3 Iraq 55.0 72.0 105.0 134.9 162.6 182.2 China 66.7 59.8 72.7 79.2 82.2 77.4 United Arab Emirates 17.2 17.3 50.0 50.0 85.7 96.7 Spain 27.5 53.4 56.5 52.5 39.4 - Saudi Arabia 20.4 57.5 59.3 58.6 72.0 65.0 Georgia - 24.3 12.3 30.9 47.7 44.3 Kuwait 14.1 24.3 17.9 10.6 15.3 23.8 Israel 22.7 18.1 25.4 21.5 14.0 18.4 Oman 11.5 11.2 23.0 7.6 4.6 11.5 Greece 3.4 4.5 7.4 19.0 7.5 - Bahrain 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 5.3 10.3 Cyprus 9.4 16.1 15.9 18.3 9.3 - Qatar 3.5 4.9 5.0 9.1 6.1 8.5 Italy 4.7 5.0 7.5 7.0 3.3 - Iran 36.5 74.2 65.6 12.1 3.3 5.0 Total S. Hemis., incl. 69.6 70.8 66.7 69.8 74.7 Source: COMTRADE, code 080520 Argentina 46.5 48.1 42.0 44.0 47.0 South Africa 14.1 13.2 13.0 14.1 12.2 Uruguay 5.8 5.6 7.0 8.0 10.5 Peru 3.2 3.9 4.7 3.7 5.0 Source: COMTRADE, code 080520 Ukraine - Imports - Main supplier countries 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total, incl. 136.2 157.6 181.8 175.7 215.7 158.1 Spain 54.9 75.3 85.5 70.0 114.6 82.9 Turkey 14.5 16.3 34.1 35.2 34.9 26.8 Georgia 8.4 11.0 20.9 25.4 13.8 21.1 Pakistan 8.5 10.7 16.9 16.8 12.4 9.7 Italy 37.8 28.7 10.8 13.4 21.4 7.0 Greece 2.9 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.0 4.9 Israel 2.4 1.8 - 2.5 3.6 1.6 Egypt 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 3.5 1.3 Source: COMTRADE, code 080520 Other Central and East European countries - Main markets 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total, incl. 94.2 73.1 70.9 69.5 63.0 77.4 Belarus 27.9 29.4 32.5 38.9 42.9 50.4 Serbia 22.1 27.3 23.0 24.4 21.1 25.1 Bosnia 16.5 18.7 16.2 17.3 13.8 20.0 Macedonia 7.4 7.5 6.5 7.5 8.1 10.0 Moldova 6.9 6.6 7.6 8.2 9.3 9.7 © Eric Imbert Albania 9.9 10.4 7.7 8.4 5.7 7.4 Armenia 3.0 2.6 10.1 3.7 4.8 4.6 Source: COMTRADE, code 080520

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 43 CLOSE-UP

Orange

The production shortfall from Spain, a source which currently controls 70 % of the supply to the Community market, will play a key role in the scenario for this 2015-16 season. Just as for easy peelers, production will decrease, though more moderately (approximately - 11 % from last season and - 5 % on the four-year average). It will peak throughout the first part of the season, with the export potential of Naveline/Navel registering a downturn of approximately 10 %. During the second part of the season, Spanish table orange production will remain short of last season’s level, though it will return to an average level with the © Eric Imbert switch to the late Navels (Navelate, Lane late and then “super late” varieties such as Rhode, Barnfield, Powell and Chislett).

Egypt, on a constant rise to prominence on the Community market, providing approximately 10 % of the supply, will be no better off. The distinct production shortfall of approximately 15 % should not, however, affect exports to a comparable extent. The Greek top-up supply, aimed primarily at the Eastern Community markets, should be slightly smaller than previous seasons, while the Moroccan supply should reach an average level.

Prices have established a level 10 to 15 % higher than in previous years since the start of the campaign, in a favourable context of high rates for the last South African Valencias. They should remain high throughout the first part of the season, especially as the more marked shortfall in easy peelers could cause some consumption transfer. The fruit shelf life will also need to be taken into consideration at the end of the Naveline and Navel season, after a particularly warm autumn. The supply © Eric Imbert should return to an average level during the second part of the season.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 44 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Also feeling the effects of the Spanish shortfall

Orange — Export forecast Orange - Mediterranean - Exports for CLAM countries 4 000 average 2015-16 3 500 000 for the compared to 2015-16 2014-15 tonnes 4 last 3 000 2014-15 average seasons 2 500 Espagne 1 601 1 803 1 677 - 11 % - 5 % Morocco 107 109 106 - 2 % + 1 % 2 000 Israel 11 5 8 + 114 % + 31 % 1 500 2011-12/2014-15 average:

Tunisia 23 22 20 + 5 % + 17 % tonnes000 1 000 3 602 000 t Turkey 314 304 314 + 3 % 0 % Italy 163 98 102 + 66 % + 60 % 500 Cyprus 16 13 19 + 20 % - 18 % 0 Greece 303 330 334 - 8 % - 9 %

Egypt 1 120 1 158 1 024 - 3 % + 9 % 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Total 3 657 3 837 3 602 - 5 % + 2 % Source: CLAM Source: CLAM

Orange – EU-28 – Consumption Orange - World - Consumption in 2014 Evolution kg/capita 2014 6.1 on average trend 5.4 Germany 4.7 - 1.4  4.5 France 6.3 + 0.2  4.0 United Kingdom 4.0 - 2.1 = 3.3 Scandinavia 7.5 + 1.4 = 2.5 2.1 Aver. West EU-28* 6.1 = Poland 4.0 - 0.5 = 0.7 Czech Rep. 4.5 - = kg/capita Hungary 2.9 - 1.6 = Baltic States 4.1 - 0.4 = USA

Romania 4.8 + 0.3  Japan Russia Canada Bulgaria 4.7 + 0.2  Ukraine Other EastOther Slovakia 4.0 - 0.5 = East EU-28 West EU-28* Aver. EU-28 4.5 = Sources: Customs, Trademap, professionals *excl. producer countries / Sources: Customs, Trademap, professionals Orange - EU-28 Orange - EU-28 Winter season imports Winter season supplier countries

2 080 1 600 1 756 1 766 1 975 1 902 1 400 Spain 1 740 1 803 1 728 1 724 1 200 1 000 Egypte 800 600 Greece 000 tonnes000 000 tonnes000 400 200 Italy 0

06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15

Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 45 ORANGE - Production (2014-15) ORANGE - Imports (2014)

World production 70.1 million tonnes World imports 5.8 million tonnes

Eastern Europe excluding EU 13% 42% 20% Asia 21% Mediterranean 32% EU-27 Middle East 29% + Switzerland + Norway

South America + Caribbean Source: FAO, CLAM, USDA / Graphics: Chez Vincent, Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source: Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source:

Orange - The 10 leading producer countries Orange - The 8 leading importer countries tonnes 2014-2015 tonnes 2014 Brazil 17 870 000 Netherlands 476 159 China 6 900 000 Russia 467 862 India 6 426 000 United States 5 785 000 France 449 108 Mexico 4 410 000 Saudi Arabia 430 000 Spain 3 914 200 Germany 419 718 Egypt 2 613 200 China 329 913 Italy 1 935 000 United Kingdom 274 701 South Africa 1 715 000 United Arab Emirates 230 098 Pakistan 1 505 000 Source: national Customs Sources: FAO, professionals USA - Imports - Main supplier countries tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Total 106 774 104 335 107 217 120 915 117 909 - ORANGE - Exports (2014-15) Total N. Hemis., incl. 23 566 15 208 8 276 15 487 26 278 23 160 Mexico 20 654 12 318 6 939 10 569 20 517 19 184 Morocco 61 0 0 3 189 3 388 2 836 Dominican Rep. 1 757 2 084 1 178 1 547 1 549 792 World exports 5.8 million tonnes Italy 720 710 20 82 495 339 Total S. Hemis., incl. 83 208 88 554 98 571 105 302 93 051 - Chile 33 393 44 933 51 510 58 856 48 537 - South Africa 33 632 35 662 35 961 36 013 36 293 - Australia 15 361 7 959 11 100 10 433 6 801 - Uruguay 0 0 0 0 1 420 - 62% 10% Source: US Customs

North Canada - Imports - Main supplier countries America tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mediterranean Total 185 932 200 795 208 119 194 473 197 951 182 262 Total N. Hemis., incl. 148 668 162 379 163 728 149 339 149 653 139 376 20% United States 141 246 159 779 161 300 145 012 145 405 112 400 Spain 3 268 1 452 1 149 3 001 2 957 23 612 Africa excluding Morocco 2 195 230 272 453 677 2 447 Mediterranean Basin Source: FAO, CLAM, USDA / Graphics: Chez Vincent, Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source: Italy 251 327 444 407 279 594 China 1 709 591 563 466 335 323 Total S. Hemis., incl. 36 498 37 392 43 588 44 467 47 367 41 180 Orange - The 6 leading exporter countries South Africa 27 128 26 828 33 094 36 297 38 504 35 630 Australia 3 840 3 708 3 255 3 107 3 563 2 130 tonnes 2014-2015 Chile 2 297 3 754 4 928 3 562 4 013 2 107 South Africa 1 109 000 Uruguay 2 032 834 821 457 940 890 Argentina 472 1 568 1 329 935 279 355 Egypt 1 100 000 Peru 729 700 161 109 68 68 United States 508 000 Source: COMTRADE Oceania - Main markets Greece 358 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Turkey 354 000 Total 27 444 32 708 36 645 32 722 35 058 28 335 Australia 15 165 19 481 24 023 19 223 20 794 16 611 Spain 1 517 New Zealand 12 279 13 227 12 622 13 499 14 264 11 724 Sources: national Customs, professionals Source: COMTRADE

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 46 November/December 2015 No. 237 European Union - Imports - Main supplier countries Japan - Imports - Main supplier countries tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total 2 421 149 2 266 123 2 513 265 2 687 113 2 337 485 - Total 94 411 109 940 115 330 130 476 111 882 83 553 Total N. Hemis., incl. 1 765 840 1 723 883 1 975 193 2 080 343 1 803 093 1 902 452 Total N. Hemis., incl. 66 811 75 469 83 626 97 304 74 976 51 953 Spain 1 097 480 1 146 248 1 382 095 1 464 457 1 210 809 1 323 336 USA 66 792 75 393 83 589 97 304 74 942 51 953 Egypt 133 650 101 350 176 339 178 600 177 304 192 069 Italy 19 76 37 - 34 - Greece 221 229 195 743 196 100 214 532 206 232 152 492 Total S. Hemis., incl. 27 582 34 441 31 704 33 172 36 906 31 260 Italy 127 233 100 392 89 942 93 565 83 294 84 196 Australia 18 324 25 312 23 762 27 717 32 479 26 106 Morocco 92 965 99 281 46 570 46 628 54 944 75 392 South Africa 7 370 7 106 7 258 4 930 4 085 5 130 Portugal 10 305 17 699 24 291 25 708 20 447 32 012 Source: Japanese Customs Tunisia 22 329 20 307 19 445 19 445 15 174 17 055 Central and South-East Asia - Main markets Turkey 17 400 10 695 13 338 13 449 16 527 8 473 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cyprus 7 135 8 020 7 444 7 587 4 980 4 545 Total 598 587 663 691 737 266 799 617 751 248 752 473 Israel 17 836 11 101 6 436 6 434 5 863 4 154 China 236 100 273 953 309 584 292 310 309 139 329 913 Total S. Hemis., incl. 655 309 542 240 538 071 606 770 534 392 - Malaysia 86 469 83 119 88 671 95 044 90 353 103 688 South Africa 416 018 338 664 396 015 433 637 378 901 - South Korea 71 221 110 055 141 961 173 943 152 714 98 371 Uruguay 71 279 57 610 36 012 50 268 47 259 - Vietnam 66 000 47 000 33 000 53 000 38 000 55 000 Argentina 86 702 80 720 47 971 49 653 44 507 - India 9 872 10 045 24 770 32 566 34 242 49 004 Zimbabwe 23 705 11 645 19 257 28 903 31 868 - Singapore 40 542 41 743 43 138 43 460 45 026 48 461 Brazil 33 903 26 872 13 276 21 248 18 690 - Philippines 39 822 35 932 29 670 35 939 24 748 19 740 Peru 6 192 9 892 7 254 10 565 8 619 - Indonesia 19 586 31 346 33 074 32 492 17 328 17 048 Swaziland 9 566 11 879 12 005 9 801 2 674 - Kazakhstan 16 133 18 706 14 792 16 822 14 760 10 163 Cambodia 1 732 5 552 6 279 8000 Chile 6 899 4 716 5 730 2 208 1 557 - Thailand 8 536 7 293 9 877 12 516 10 994 6 585 Source: EUROSTAT Sri Lanka 4 305 4 499 6 996 5 973 7 665 6 500 Other West European countries - Main markets Source: COMTRADE tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Persian Gulf - Main markets Total 100 815 103 800 102 085 100 538 108 110 98 117 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Norway 61 689 64 424 62 758 62 924 68 025 62 966 Total 1 051 822 1 058 484 1 058 678 1 104 910 1 180 605 1 287 584 Switzerland 37 509 37 730 37 484 35 644 37 985 33 313 Saudi Arabia 303 642 332 473 360 597 389 870 374 289 430 000 Iceland 1 617 1 646 1 842 1 970 2 100 1 838 United Arab Emir. 178 549 180 000 202 920 157 200 211 188 230 098 Source: COMTRADE Iraq 218 169 236 226 147 131 176 737 215 432 222 902 Russia - Imports - Main supplier countries Iran 152 000 136 407 184 287 200 000 200 000 200 000 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Kuwait 122 435 95 488 87 145 88 474 91 235 104 602 Total 443 549 498 799 568 339 489 149 503 937 467 862 Oman 37 915 40 193 43 547 45 304 43 796 50 060 Total N. Hemis., incl. 320 047 327 511 433 964 361 281 365 856 337 976 Qatar 20 000 23 427 25 332 27 891 27 528 30 580 Egypt 128 536 149 905 218 941 197 299 233 934 210 221 Barhain 19 112 14 270 7 719 19 434 17 137 19 342 Turkey 85 378 76 931 102 458 69 888 66 381 75 600 Yemen 4 309 4 500 1 125 2 549 11 106 11 006 Morocco 80 978 63 848 69 968 50 733 24 531 26 008 Source: COMTRADE Spain 6 007 15 099 22 404 25 008 27 518 17 840 Mediterranean - Main markets China 13 131 15 224 10 348 13 980 9 636 4 812 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Syria 1 001 1 082 2 600 1 087 1 762 2 477 Total 66 433 66 055 96 196 105 350 115 300 115 970 Greece 510 769 3 142 1 276 1 787 683 Jordan 16 400 28 664 26 482 36 485 35 435 50852 Total S. Hemis., incl. 122 400 167 606 132 712 126 862 135 000 126 097 Turkey 40 853 28 591 44 259 30 816 33 472 28213 South Africa 94 020 131 732 114 601 118 110 128 853 123 035 Algeria 9 180 8 800 8 531 19 357 27 376 26719 Uruguay 5 586 6 426 4 699 2 872 3 698 1 440 Syria 19 000 10 186 16 925 18 692 19 017 10186 Zimbabwe 846 577 276 1 399 1 187 789 Source: COMTRADE Source: COMTRADE Africa - Main markets Ukraine - Imports - Main supplier countries tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total 51 191 63 017 54 650 55 651 108 344 25 234 Total 125 762 124 849 143 659 117 953 133 185 94 639 South Africa 1 699 1 255 808 378 19 292 12 782 Total N. Hemis., incl. 108 271 107 249 127 735 104 184 122 855 80 110 Zambia 5 936 7 055 7 261 7 500 10 139 12 452 Egypt 67 367 68 471 80 474 67 361 72 596 38 136 Sudan 22 885 29 048 29 158 17 761 45 954 - Turkey 33 648 29 715 36 793 25 633 38 637 35 102 Kenya 3 872 5 282 5 460 14 874 22 554 - Spain 4 065 6 070 7 324 8 259 10 790 6 055 Côte d’Ivoire 10 048 13 202 5 705 7 318 993 - Greece 1 047 1 180 2 270 1 849 711 690 Botswana 1 884 1 777 1 541 2 014 2 276 - Total S. Hemis., incl. 17 325 17 201 15 588 13 361 9 799 13 879 Namibia 3 407 3 357 3 515 4 272 5 255 - South Africa 14 385 15 880 14 640 12 758 8 609 13 289 Source: COMTRADE Zimbabwe 256 382 64 438 1 082 532 South America - Main markets Source: COMTRADE tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Other East European countries - Main markets Total 257 694 276 625 305 017 280 974 241 680 280 974 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Costa Rica 55 016 74 284 84 001 66 637 55 399 66 637 Total, incl. 126 173 135 129 157 178 136 485 160 123 169 225 Surinam 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 50 000 Serbia 40 320 39 288 48 156 38 433 44 425 46 732 Guatemala 47 860 40 698 53 066 48 791 27 523 48 791 Belarus 21 478 24 701 23 999 26 904 36 386 32 665 Paraguay 37 001 28 784 31 470 29 353 27 184 29 353 Bosnia 16 399 18 177 21 101 17 821 20 040 22 117 Mexico 22 535 25 132 35 501 27 912 26 173 27 912 Albania 20 638 22 083 22 791 17 670 16 687 20 344 El Salvador 22 824 23 000 21 693 27 898 19 349 27 898 Macedonia 8 309 9 971 13 032 11 392 11 913 15 806 Brazil 6 002 11 527 11 873 14 598 16 056 14 598 Georgia 6 018 5 051 8 669 9 329 12 629 11 068 Ecuador 9 022 2 562 3 321 9 449 12 832 9 449 Armenia 4 181 6 792 8 102 5 458 7 253 8 699 Chile 2 659 889 1 456 2 571 3 545 2 695 Montenegro 3 780 4 003 5 415 5 038 5 512 6 294 Nicaragua 2 631 1 352 1 431 2 695 2 463 2 571 Moldova 5 049 5 063 5 913 4 440 5 278 5 500 Colombia 1 209 17 408 11 203 1 070 1 156 1 070 Source: COMTRADE Source: COMTRADE

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 47 CLOSE-UP

Mediterranean grapefruit

Is the grapefruit market in the process of climbing out of the mire? That is the indication from the rather satisfactory results of the 2014-15 winter campaign, and the results of the 2015 summer season, as exceptional as they were unexpected. True, it is not emerging from the crisis on a high, with the upstream segment having had to adapt its production structure to the fall in consumption, and large-scale uprooting implemented in certain countries. Nonetheless, is this new balance here to stay? The question is being asked, especially in Germany and the Eastern part of the Community, in view of the rising market share of the Mediterranean sources least well-posi- tioned in terms of climate to produce a quality grapefruit, chief among which is Turkey. Might this downgrading not reinforce loss of consump-

tion, potentially leading to the need for further Domergue © Régis uprooting? Raising rates to a decent level must not be a pretext for forgetting to deal with the underlying problems, especially taste standards.

The 2015-16 season will be marked by another fall in Mediterranean production. Spain should have slightly smaller volumes than last year’s record season. This phenomenon is due to adverse weather conditions, with the cultivation area actually having seen slight growth. Yet above all, the Israeli harvest will bottom out at 169 000 t, unprecedented since the 1960s. This new fall illustrates the shrinkage of the Israeli Star Ruby and Rio Red harvests, which now occupy just 1 500 ha in 2015, as opposed to 2 800 ha four years earlier. The initial information gathered from Turkey indi- cates that production should at least equal 2014- 15. Meanwhile Florida is set for another harvest in shortfall, with volumes bound for Europe probably smaller than in 2014-15 (see inset below). In this context of slight production shortfall prices should maintain a level considerably above average, for both Mediterranean sources and Florida. The juice industry will remain a useful alternative © Eric Imbert outlet, with concentrated juice rates having risen again from the record level reached in 2014-15.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 48 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Another supply fall for 2015-16, helping rebalance the market

Grapefruit - Mediterranean - Exports Grapefruit — Export forecast for CLAM countries 350 average 2015-16 300 000 for the compared to 2015-16 2014-15 250 tonnes 4 last seasons 2014-15 average 200

Spain 55 64 52 - 14 % + 5 % 150 2011-12/2014-15 average:

Israel 68 61 74 + 11 % - 8 % tonnes000 100 324 000 t Cyprus 21 16 22 + 31 % - 6 % 50 Turkey* 146 146 160 0 % - 9 % 0 Others 10 9 16 + 20 % - 36 %

Total 300 295 324 + 2 % - 7 % 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 *estimate / Source: CLAM Source: CLAM

Grapefruit – EU-28 – Consumption Grapefruit - World - Consumption in 2014 Evolution kg/capita 2014 1.2 1.1 on average trend 1.1 Germany 0.6 - 0.2 = 0.9 France 1.1 + 0.3  0.8 United Kingdom 0.5 - 0.3  0.5 0.5 0.5 Scandinavia 0.7 - 0.1 = Aver. West EU-28* 1.1 - 1.8 = Poland 0.9 - 2.0 =

Czech Rep. 0.4 - 2.5 = kg/capita Hungary 1.6 - 1.3 =

Baltic States 1.5 - 1.4 = USA Japan Russia Canada Romania 1.6 - 1.3 = Ukraine Other EastOther Bulgaria 1.1 - 1.8 = East EU-28 Slovakia 2.9 - = West EU-28* Aver. East EU-28 2.9 = Sources: Customs, Trademap, professionals *excl. producer countries / Sources: Customs, Trademap, professionals Grapefruit - EU-28 - Winter season imports Grapefruit - EU-28 Winter season main supplier countries 269 274 272 254 90 252 249 Turkey 241 80 215 215 70 60 Spain 50 40 Israel 000 tonnes000 000 tonnes000 30 20 United 10 States 0

06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15

Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 49 CLOSE-UP

Floridian grapefruit

At first sight, the production decrease of “just” 5 % might even appear to be good news, so marked has been the decline in the previous two Northern grape 332 ha seasons (between - 15 and - 20 %). Unfortunately a fr id u r i 2% we should not celebrate too soon. As in previous o t Central l F 1 640 ha years, the current estimate of 12.2 million field 2015 production crates (470 000 t) could well be revised considera- 9% bly downward over the coming months (discrep- Indian River ancy of 2 million boxes between the initial fore- Western 13 113 ha cast and the final figures in recent campaigns). 506 ha 75% Furthermore, producers are alarmed at the small 3% fruit size, symptomatic of weakening of the trees Southern contaminated by greening. The packed yield, 2 201 ha very low at the beginning of the season, could re- 12% main below normal. Finally, importers once again this season will need to reckon with a euro/dollar exchange rate which has deteriorated even more Total: 17 791 ha than last season (approximately - 15 %), and with increasing cost prices, because of climbing pro- Source: USDA / Processing and presentation: Cirad-FruiTrop duction costs upstream.

Two studies published recently show that the future of the industry is particularly gloomy. According to “Impact of greening on citrus operations in Florida” (by A. Singerman and P. Useche of University of Florida), 80 % of trees are contaminated by bacteriosis, lethal after ten years and causing an estimated fall in yield of 40 %. The latest ten-year production projection published by FDOC is the final nail in the coffin (“Florida citrus production projections and consumption scenario 2016-17 through 2025-26”, by T. Spreen and M. Zansler). While the planting rate remains stable (corresponding to approximately half the tree mortality rate), production could decline to a level of between 11 million field crates (unlikely hypothesis of yields stabilising) and 4.5 million field crates (hypothesis of ongoing fall in yields at the current rate). The citrus industry, which employs more than 60 000 people on its 200 000 ha cultivated area, is in more danger than ever. Colossal

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 50 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

A top-end benchmark increasingly threatened by greening

Grapefruit - Florida - Production Grapefruit - Florida - Exports

White 8.0 26.6 21.7 20.3 Coloured 7.0 USA + Canada 19.8 18.9 6.0 18.4 5.0 Japan

15.1 15.7 lb boxes 15.0 - 4.0 kg boxes 14.3 - 13.9 13.5 13.1 3.0 EU-28 11.5 9.7 9.5 2.0

million 42.5 million 1.0 Others million 38.6 million 6.6 6.0 5.85 5.35 5.25 0.0 4.15 3.2 2.7

08/09 11/12 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Source: FDOC Source: FDOC

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 51 GRAPEFRUIT - Production (2013-14) GRAPEFRUIT - Imports (2013-14)

World production 3.1 million tonnes World imports 730 000 tonnes

Eastern Europe

North America 46% 16% 22%

39% Mediterranean EU-27 24% + Switzerland + Norway Asia 17%

South America + Caribbean Source: FAO, CLAM, USDA / Graphics: Chez Vincent, Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source: Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source:

Grapefruit - The 6 leading producer countries Grapefruit - The 8 leading importer countries tonnes 2013-14 tonnes 2013-2014 Netherlands 159 449 Unites States 789 000 Japan 106 120 Mexico 425 400 France 78 126 South Africa 413 300 Russia 73 899 Germany 64 218 Israel 224 000 China 45 429 Turkey 210 000 Poland 43 078 Sudan 198 000 Canada 37 119 Sources: FAO, professionals Source: national Customs

USA - Imports - Main supplier countries GRAPEFRUIT - Exports (2013-14) tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total 11 143 8 066 6 088 2 851 16 970 14 296 Mexico 3 336 4 608 4 410 2 263 14 838 8 425 World exports 730 000 tonnes South Africa 173 247 75 362 5 085 Israel 119 123 158 473 1 094 566 Peru 150 - 37 41 676 224 Source: US Customs

47% 20% Canada - Imports - Main supplier countries tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 North America Mediterranean Total 45 216 43 614 43 360 41 146 38 384 37 119 Total winter, incl. 39 552 38 512 35 915 33 972 30 158 28 433

30% United States 38 152 37 212 35 277 33 054 29 517 27 738 Bahamas 335 641 328 735 423 369 Africa excluding Mexico 192 262 173 183 218 326 Mediterranean Basin Source: FAO, CLAM, USDA / Graphics: Chez Vincent, Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source: Thailand - 192 262 173 183 218 Total summer, incl. 5 220 4 488 6 472 5 396 8 226 8 686 Grapefruit - The 5 leading exporter countries South Africa 4 589 4 288 6 374 5 267 8 136 8 551 Chile 5 76 - 2 18 5 tonnes 2013-2014 Argentina 626 124 98 127 72 - Source: COMTRADE South Africa 218 000

Turkey 178 000 South America - Main markets tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 United States 147 000 Total 11 222 11 652 4 511 9 612 3 792 3 163 Israel 76 000 Mexico 9 118 9816 2 469 8 272 2 228 1 725 Spain 47 000 Argentina 2 104 1836 2 041 1 340 1 564 1 438 Sources: national Customs, professionals Source: COMTRADE Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 52 November/December 2015 No. 237 European Union - Imports - Main supplier countries Japan - Imports - Main supplier countries tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Total 373 288 372 610 337 218 326 432 329 649 - Total 166 075 168 438 149 567 134 091 106 120 - Total N. Hemis.*, incl. 271 878 252 081 249 008 214 971 240 661 215 497 Total N. Hemis., incl. 119 175 113 939 101 061 83 238 63 018 55 794 Turkey 75 004 66 286 81 960 52 786 87 702 70 729 United States 115 350 109 981 96 444 78 598 60 022 51 899 Spain 47 900 51 825 44 560 46 998 42 969 49 802 Israel 3 825 3 492 2 850 3 120 2 646 1501 United States 55 132 52 721 45 988 40 676 41 760 38 243 Turkey - 465 1 639 1 520 333 2 185 Israel 58 101 48 576 44 170 45 401 41 664 37 887 Others - 1 128 - 17 208.7 Mexico 9 167 14 385 13 472 13 428 11 949 9 725 Total S. Hemis., incl. 46 900 54 499 48 506 50 853 46 098 - Cyprus 10 617 11 773 13 081 11 031 8 364 5 557 South Africa 44 602 53 579 48 120 50 853 46 098 - Honduras 6 063 1 109 76 73 20 54 Swaziland 2 237 857 - - - - Cuba 754 - - - - - Chile 61 60 - - - - Others 9 140 5 406 5 701 4 578 6 233 3 500 Source: Japanese Customs

Total S. Hemis., incl. 101 410 120 529 88 210 111 461 88 988 - Other Asia countries - Main markets South Africa 78 897 94 006 75 412 104 725 82 080 - tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Swaziland 9 906 14 986 8 480 2 328 3 989 - Total 39 013 45 216 50 032 60 447 57 421 71 660 Zimbabwe 2 053 2 228 1 360 2 414 2 241 - China 28 135 31 895 34 978 43 473 40 065 45 429 Chile 363 18 176 105 64 - South Korea 5 724 7 861 9 337 10 452 11 580 19 491 Argentina 9 129 8 276 1 485 1 080 59 - Singapore 4 022 4 530 4 571 5 252 5 120 5 469 Uruguay 140 - - - - - Malaysia 1 131 930 1 147 1 270 656 1 271 Mozambique 669 1 016 840 89 - - Source: COMTRADE

Others 251 - 457 721 556 - Persian Gulf - Main markets *Extra-EU imports and introduction from main EU producer countries (Spain, Cyprus) / Source: EUROSTAT tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total 26 760 25 576 24 942 42 201 45 753 52 866 Other West European countries - Main markets Saudi Arabia 8 500 8 457 9 904 21 510 25 000 25 000

tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 United Arab Emir. 9 000 8 891 7 698 7 203 11 146 11 883 Iraq 8 000 7 000 5 963 9 566 5 757 9 939 Total 9 880 8 767 8 393 8 786 8 661 8 584 Qatar 1 260 1 228 1 377 3 922 3 850 6 044 Switzerland 8 554 7 434 7 174 7 445 7 321 7 240 Kuwait 2 002 2 468 3 838 2 454 2 382 2 892 Norway 1 327 1 333 1 219 1 341 1 340 1 344 Source: COMTRADE Source: COMTRADE

Russia - Imports - Main supplier countries

000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Dawson © Carolina Total 71 262 81 491 94 274 79 075 90 900 73 899 Total N. Hemis., incl. 52 705 56 621 65 205 56 215 58 537 51 366 Turkey 38 211 43 377 48 811 41 595 43 689 40 561 Israel 11 845 11 978 15 581 13 655 13 839 10 324 Morocco 544 365 122 660 612 257 Spain 891 691 678 303 365 219 United States 1 214 209 13 2 32 5 Total S. Hemis., incl. 17 963 24 316 27 583 20 580 30 129 21 269 South Africa 15 402 19 768 22 492 15 589 25 700 18 092 Mexico 1 004 2 704 3 016 4 020 3 303 2 037 Swaziland 298 631 910 622 888 1 068 Zimbabwe 481 188 262 81 183 72 Argentina 691 1 025 903 268 55 - Others 593 554 1 486 2 280 2 234 1 264 Source: COMTRADE

Other East European countries - Main markets tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total, incl. 31 953 36 074 39 234 42 843 50 561 43 622 Ukraine 17 344 20 807 25 691 26 786 31 734 22 432 Belarus 4 049 4 385 3 880 4 753 8 316 8 482 Serbia 4 569 4 255 4 154 4 322 3 745 5 050 Bosnia Herz. 1 679 1 852 1 695 1 581 1 285 1 878 Moldova 1 636 1 703 1 655 1 597 1 755 1 530 Macedonia 1 086 1 100 1 103 1 197 1 083 1 481 Armenia 879 1 202 1 128 1 171 1 153 1 306 Georgia 381 334 536 929 954 851 Montenegro 330 436 521 507 536 612 Albania 396 201 257 222 192 247 Source: COMTRADE Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 53 CLOSE-UP

Lemon

The 2014-15 campaign confirmed the re- of Spanish fruits. The two main ones, namely newed good health of the lemon market, with Turkey and Italy, are set for only average har- prices for the third consecutive year register- vests, similar to 2014-15. Greece and Cyprus ing an excellent level in the EU-28 throughout are no longer significant exporters for this cit- the season. While the overproduction crisis rus family. has been forgotten since the end of the last decade, the market seems to have gone from Prices, very high since the beginning of the sea- balance to tension in recent seasons. It is not son, could reach a record level at the end of the solely the structural weakness of Turkish pro- campaign, with the Spanish shortfall consid- duction in 2014-15 and Argentinean produc- erably more marked for Verna than Primofiore tion in the past two years which explain this (- 38 % and - 17 % respectively in relation to the change in trend. On the one hand, Community 2014-15 season). So the context should be fa- consumption is on the rise. It is a slight trend, vourable for the launch of a 2016 counter-sea- though the 100 g/capita or so gained since son campaign, which should be bigger in terms the beginning of the decade, in both the West of volume than in 2014 and 2015. Argentinean and East, amounts to considerable volumes. production should return to a higher level after On the other hand, the greater solidity of the two years of scarcity following the frost of 2013. Spanish industry is driving the market upward. Similarly, South Africa should have bigger vol- The structural adjustments made to the culti- umes, with the large areas of young orchards vation stock have helped stretch out the har- planted in recent years entering production or vest calendar, especially toward the end of the reaching their potential. The end-of-winter slot, season (early Fino on Macrophilla rootstock highly favourable in recent years, should not be being uprooted in favour of Verna). On the overestimated. Verna planting has been going other hand, the strengthening of the industry strong in Spain in recent years, and experience organisation and the efforts made in terms of has shown that market balance is very fine for a certification have helped Spain better harness product with such inflexible demand. its comparative advantages on the EC market (proximity, service, etc.). So Spain is tending to nibble away at the market shares of competing sources. Turkey, whose shipments to the EU had risen steeply at the end of the last decade, has lost ground in recent seasons. 70 % of the supply from this source is now focused on the Eastern part of the Community, and remains highly seasonal (two-thirds of volumes sold from September to November).

2015-16 is also set to be a high-tension campaign. With 850 000 t expected according to Ailimpo, the Spanish harvest is set to be down

13 % on the four-year average, and almost © Eric Imbert as limited as in 2012-13. The other suppliers, which now provide just 20 to 25 % of the supply, will not be able to offset the shortage

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 54 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Still juicy in 2015-16!

Lemon — Export forecast Lemon - Mediterranean - Exports for CLAM countries 1 400 average 2015-16 1 200 000 for the compared to 2015-16 2014-15 tonnes 4 last 1 000 2014-15 average seasons 800 Spain 525 671 581 - 22 % - 10 % Cyprus 4 4 6 + 19 % - 23 % 600

Turkey 459 459 413 0 % + 11 % tonnes000 400 2011-12/2014-15 average: Greece 3 3 5 + 6 % - 38 % 200 1 071 000 t Italy 40 28 30 + 44 % + 36 % 0 Egypt 32 33 32 - 2 % + 1 % Morocco 6 6.4 5 - 6 % + 29 % 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Total 1 070 1 204 1 071 - 11 % 0 % Source: CLAM Source: CLAM

Lemon – EU-28 – Consumption Lemon - World - Consumption in 2014 Evolution kg/capita 2014 1.9 1.9 on average trend 1.7 1.6 Germany 1.5 - 0.1 = 1.4 France 1.7 + 0.1 = 1.1 United Kingdom 1.4 - 0.2 = Scandinavia 1.6 0.0 = 0.6 Aver. West EU-28* 1.6  = 0.4

Poland 2.2 + 0.2 = kg/capita Czech Rep. 2.5 + 0.6 = Hungary 1.2 - 0.7 = Baltic States 1.5 - 0.5 = USA Japan Romania 1.8 - 0.1 = Russia Canada Bulgaria 1.6 - 0.3 = Ukraine Other EastOther East EU-28

Slovakia 2.3 + 0.4  West EU-28*  Aver. East EU-28 1.9 = Sources: Customs, Trademap, professionals *excl. producer countries / Sources: Customs, Trademap, professionals Lemon - EU-28 - Winter season imports Lemon - EU-28 Winter season supplier countries 591 611 577 564 569 575 600 539 Spain 490 474 500

400 Turkey 300 Italy 000 tonnes000

000 tonnes000 200 100 Greece 0

06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 55 LEMON - Production (2013-14) LEMON - Imports (2013-14)

World production 7.2 million tonnes World imports 1.7 million tonnes

Eastern Europe

North America 47% 18% 46% 12%

Mediterranean EU-27 12% + Switzerland + Norway Asia 22%

South America Source: FAO, CLAM, USDA / Graphics: Chez Vincent, Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source: Source: FAO, CLAM, USDA / Graphics: Chez Vincent, Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source:

Lemon - The 7 leading producer countries Lemon - The 8 leading importer countries tonnes 2013-2014 tonnes 2013-14 Spain 1 057 000 Russia 192 278 Germany 135 300 Argentina 953 900 France 119 000 United States 816 000 China 102 300 Turkey 700 000 Saudi Arabia 92 919 Italy 545 000 Italy 91 400 China 400 000 Poland 90 900 South Africa 312 000 United Kingdom 88 400 Sources: FAO, professionals Source: national Customs USA - Imports - Main supplier countries tonnes 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Total 37 287 39 789 57 277 57 277 41 304 65 886 LEMON - Exports (2013-14) Total N. Hemis., incl. 16 954 22 286 23 413 31 014 28 056 40 045 Mexico 3 159 609 835 1 510 389 1 647 Spain 285 248 387 191 270 217 Dominican Rep. - 285 248 387 191 300 World exports 1.7 million tonnes Total S. Hemis., incl. 16 885 16 605 23 674 23 674 12 321 23 675 Chile 16 821 16 333 23 413 17 020 11 829 16 780 Others 64 272 621 608 492 794 Source: US Customs Canada - Imports - Main supplier countries 68% tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total 38 450 38 677 43 980 48 645 50 752 64 118 Total N. Hemis., incl. 30 365 31 310 32 470 35 471 37 466 38 372 Mediterranean United States 30 250 31 109 31 555 30 481 35 105 29 569 13% Spain 115 201 915 3 940 1 618 8 248 Turkey 20 88 306 1 050 743 555 South America 12% Total S. Hemis., incl. 7 724 6 787 11 013 12 216 12 706 14 511 Africa excluding South Africa 443 1 612 2 789 2 560 5 132 8 140 Mediterranean Basin Argentina 6 213 4 606 7 381 9 299 7 263 5 010

Source: FAO, CLAM, USDA / Graphics: Chez Vincent, Cirad Vincent, Chez / Graphics: USDA CLAM, FAO, Source: Uruguay 211 90 227 71 97 1 027 Australia 203 169 181 174 104 246 Chile 653 311 435 112 110 88 Lemon - The 5 leading exporter countries Source: COMTRADE South America - Main markets tonnes 2013-2014 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spain 635 000 Total 13 911 18 391 29 557 15 536 13 926 18 723 Chile 1 319 3 966 17 574 4 497 5 733 7 247 Turkey 418 000 Ecuador 819 4 088 2 356 1 823 1 169 4 200 Mexico 453 602 2 398 1 419 1 214 2 887 South Africa 198 000 Brazil 918 1 248 1 954 2 381 2 712 2 884 Bolivia 415 471 302 160 200 558 Argentina 153 000 Costa Rica 511 536 802 731 550 469 Colombia 4 639 956 2 993 4 194 1 382 360 United States 127 000 Argentina 4 837 6 524 1 177 331 966 118 Sources: national Customs, professionals Source: COMTRADE Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 56 November/December 2015 No. 237 European Union - Imports - Main supplier countries Japan - Imports - Main supplier countries tonnes 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total 779 673 786 438 815 676 768 147 748 258 610 622 Total 51 422 52 618 53 781 53 834 49 229 47 299 Total winter, incl. 564 141 568 702 574 652 538 895 590 562 610 622 Total N. Hemis., incl. 36 531 38 459 35 758 38 204 35 268 29 938 Spain 372 445 412 568 432 293 426 860 452 051 500 692 United States 36 462 36 741 32 099 36 917 34 614 29 234 Turkey 132 610 110 261 106 512 72 299 95 305 75 684 Mexico 69 1 718 3 659 1 287 654 704 Italy 47 306 37 226 29 210 33 377 34 955 29 539 Total S. Hemis., incl. 14 475 14 159 18 022 15 562 13 920 17 360 Greece 4 493 3 790 2 624 3 658 4 951 2 792 Chile 12 187 12 949 16 767 14 331 13 170 16 027 Cyprus 1 658 2 031 2 169 1 883 1 121 635 New Zealand 953 786 862 725 529 913 Israel 1 099 373 200 262 520 492 South Africa 1 335 424 393 506 221 420 Morocco 1 785 1 771 970 192 693 443 Others 416 - 1 68 41 1 Egypt 2 191 554 572 236 810 166 Source: Japanese Customs Iran 85 73 68 88 82 99 United States 428 2 22 31 22 42 Other Asia countries - Main markets Tunisia 43 53 12 9 53 38 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total summer, incl. 215 532 217 737 241 025 229 253 157 696 - Total 66 812 67 369 73 820 78 590 91 180 155 809 Argentina 158 391 159 063 182 580 187 449 104 992 - China 34 968 30 211 32 980 34 865 41 300 102 300 South Africa 44 532 45 233 41 385 25 363 36 088 - Singapore 8 423 8 988 9 932 10 191 12 858 16 969 Uruguay 8 064 8 280 9 959 9 194 10 194 - Malaysia 6 556 6 646 7 559 9 377 12 260 15 058 Chile 3 211 3 217 5 751 6 333 5 455 - South Korea 5 147 5 631 7 398 10 664 13 950 13 610 Dominican Rep. 1 198 1 943 1 256 632 658 - Kazakhstan 7 503 5 000 4 568 4 712 4 616 4 116 Brazil 136 - 92 249 190 - Philippines 854 1 277 1 430 1 390 1 610 2 669 Zimbabwe - - 2 32 120 - Kyrgyzstan 1 100 872 1 059 1 088 943 1 000 Source: EUROSTAT Azerbaijan 2 261 8 745 6 963 6 303 779 87 Source: COMTRADE Other West european countries - Main markets tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Persian Gulf - Main markets Total 23 329 24 199 25 172 26 327 27 677 29 588 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Switzerland 17 483 17 861 18 358 18 998 19 516 20 558 Total 123 259 175 875 186 422 163 237 202 193 223 531 Norway 5 431 5 888 6 300 6 781 7 496 8 241 United Arab Emir. 50 000 44 823 56 048 50 000 86 389 83 947 Iceland 415 450 514 548 665 789 Saudi Arabia 42 770 93 613 92 753 71 617 68 275 92 919 Source: COMTRADE Kuwait 19 698 24 561 21 585 24 163 27 379 25 817 Russia - Imports - Main supplier countries Qatar 5 000 6 848 7 328 5 351 6 406 7 886 000 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Bahrain 3 577 3 747 5 419 5 590 6 491 6 500 Total 205 726 211 886 223 264 198 585 204 951 192 278 Oman 2 214 2 284 3 289 6 516 7 253 6 462 Total N. Hemis., incl. 145 109 144 290 156 085 137 942 131 080 133 634 Source: COMTRADE Turkey 106 890 117 255 131 314 101 648 109 248 104 036 Mediterranean - Main markets Spain 29 664 16 989 17 801 28 964 16 509 22 554 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Morocco 2 925 1 230 2 511 2 172 1 166 4 219 Total 25 858 31 023 33 770 34 184 31 121 21 266 Israel 866 719 5 657 134 1 329 Jordan 5 093 7 983 11 469 10 022 14 304 10 447 China 2 478 4 995 2 866 3 837 3 682 773 Syria 16 289 19 618 19 909 17 504 8 225 7 573 United States 1 302 1 689 188 63 152 430 Turkey 1 808 1 722 670 3 093 1 983 2 419 Egypt 985 1 412 1 400 601 189 293 Lebanon 451 891 616 821 4 516 721 Total S. Hemis., incl. 60 298 66 848 66 643 60 427 72 448 54 933 Algeria 1 310 33 1 105 2 744 2 093 106 South Africa 12 929 20 960 26 094 18 438 28 387 29 720 Tunisia 906 777 - - - - Argentina 47 192 43 948 40 250 41 853 42 795 23 378 Source: COMTRADE Uruguay 177 1 939 299 136 1 266 1 835 Oceania - Main markets Others 318 748 536 216 1 423 3 711 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: COMTRADE Total 5 099 6 921 5 823 7 691 9 563 8 760 Ukraine - Imports - Main supplier countries Australia 4 209 6 241 4 988 6 189 8 242 7 602 tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 New Zealand 890 680 835 1 502 1 321 1 158 Total 62 787 60 102 62 188 62 319 61 754 51 931 Source: COMTRADE Total N. Hemis., incl. 48 682 46 780 46 619 48 739 45 457 43 036 Turkey 41 263 41 992 43 102 37 464 39 574 36 243 Spain 6 709 3 732 3 516 10 478 5 634 6 653 Egypt 619 848 1 722 236 124 Total S. Hemis., incl. 13 399 12 147 15 021 12 624 16 092 8 125 Argentina 12 193 8 741 11 241 9 619 12 274 4 758 © Eric Imbert South Africa 1 205 3 406 3 780 3 005 3 818 3 367 Others 706 1 175 548 956 205 770 Source: COMTRADE Other East european countries - Main markets tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total, incl. 50 004 44 006 49 104 48 220 51 087 53 179 Serbia 16 278 13 791 15 971 15 692 16 372 15 286 Belarus 7 984 7 230 6 912 7 503 8 433 13 519 Bosnia 9159 7839 8 921 8 220 7 988 7 794 Macedonia 5 084 5 000 5 194 4 697 4 939 5 320 Moldova 3 613 3 382 3 523 3 295 3 351 3 454 Georgia 1 441 1 265 2 871 3 141 4 263 2 642 Montenegro 2 781 1 979 1 831 2 068 2 351 2 321 Armenia 858 1 341 1 176 776 927 1 492 Albania 2 806 2 180 2 706 2 828 2 463 1 351 Source: COMTRADE

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 57 CLOSE-UP

World citrus market

Prudence called for more than ever

The latest world citrus trade figures show, somewhat brutally, that the golden age of the citrus trade has well and truly passed. Growth, at half-mast since the beginning of the decade, vanished in 2014, to be replaced by a decline as significant as it was unprecedented. Is the world market reaching a certain maturity? Or have cyclical factors, aggravated in 2014 by the weakening of currencies such as the euro and rouble and by political crises (Ukraine, Syria and neighbouring countries), played a major role?

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 58 November/December 2015 No. 237 CITROLE® A sustainable alternative for crop protection

Thanks to its physical mode of action, Citrole®, a high purity biodegradable parafﬁn oil formulation, offers numerous beneﬁts for the protection of the crops:

s"ROADSPECTRUMOFEFlCACY s%XCELLENTSELECTIVITYINTHERECOMMENDEDDOSES s.OTOXICRESIDUESONTHECROPS -INIMALREENTRYPERIOD 4REATMENTSPOSSIBLEUNTILTHEHARVEST s.ODEVELOPMENTOFRESISTANCEKNOWN FORTARGETEDSPECIES

!PPROVEDFORUSEINORGANIC AGRICULTUREACCORDINGTO REGULATION%# AND%#

5SEPLANTPROTECTIONPRODUCTSSAFELY !LWAYSREADTHELABELANDPRODUCT INFORMATIONBEFOREUSE

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite WWWTOTALSPECIALmUIDSCOM CLOSE-UP

EU now a mature market

Unsurprisingly, the vast European Union market, which on its own absorbs approximately 45 % of world trade, did not exhibit dazzling vitality in 2014. The small bright spell seen in 2012 and 2013 was short-lived, with volumes dropping back in 2014 to 5.4 million tonnes, as was the case between 2009 and 2011. While imports held up for easy peelers, they continued to drop for the grapefruit and lemon, whereas the orange registered a much more distinct downturn. The consumption figures confirmed the advanced maturity of the Western EC markets, or even something of a recession (see inset).

In the Eastern EU, the volumes absorbed per capita remained well below those of the Western part (10.5 kg/year as opposed to 13.4 kg/year on average in the West, excluding producer countries such as Spain or Italy). Nonetheless, 2014 once more showed that the prospect of catch-up is only theoretical, with the rise in import volumes once again very discreet (with the exception of the orange). There is a prevailing list- lessness in the richer countries in the zone (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Baltic States), where consumption is in excess of 11.5 kg/capita/year and approaching the average for Western Europe. The only markets on the up are the less lucrative ones (Romania and Bulgaria), with volumes absorbed in Poland and Hungary remaining perfectly immobile despite their low level (just 10 kg for Poland and barely more than 6 kg for Hungary).

Nothing new in the East.....

2014 has not been the year of awakening for Eastern Europe’s extra-Community markets. After playing a key role in the balance of international trade over the past decade by absorbing the bulk of the growth in Mediterranean production, imports by the countries of this zone have stabilised at between 2.2 and 2.4 million tonnes since 2011. True, the cyclical conditions, particularly unfavourable in 2014 with the collapse of the rouble, the political crisis in Ukraine and the Russian embargo, played an extremely negative role. Yet it has to be observed that big markets, in particular Russia which on its own absorbs 70 % of the zone’s imports, are probably close to maturity. Consumption is approaching 11.5 kg per capita in this country, which holds the world record for both imports and consumption of easy peelers. Just like © Eric Imbert the Eastern part of the European Community, the distinctly under-consuming markets offering the great- est prospects are those of the least economically developed countries (Belarus, Moldova, Georgia).

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 60 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Citrus world trade

Citrus - EU-28 - Marketed volumes excl. Citrus - Eastern Europe (excl. EU-28) local production sold locally Imports (million tonnes / source: Eurostat) (million tonnes / source: Customs)

5.8 2.4 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.4 2.3 2.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 2.1 2.2 4.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Citrus (easy peelers, orange, lemon, grapefruit) Citrus - Major world market shares World trade (source: Customs) (million tonnes / source: Customs)

12.5 12.8 12.2 12.5 Eastern 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.6 Europe 9.7 10.1 8.9 19% Middle EU-28 East 46% 14%

N. Asia America 14% 7% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Citrus - Asia - Imports Citrus - Middle East - Imports (million tonnes / source: Customs) (million tonnes / source: Customs)

1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 61 CLOSE-UP

Asia stalling...

The main news to take from this 2014 review comes from Asia, and it is bad news. The markets in this part of the world, after spending the last decade as a driving force and climbing by 600 000, have seemingly confirmed their slowdown, or even their stabilisation or recession. The Chinese market can no longer pick up above the level of just over 400 000 t it reached in 2011, the increase registered in 2014 due only to a one-off boom in lemon imports, following a drought which hit local Anyue production. Will the consequences of greening, which is devastating the plantations of Jiantxi, boost imports? The Customs agreements recently signed by South Korea were highly favourable to fruit imports, with the exception

of citruses, volumes of which plummeted, the Domergue © Régis Koreans abandoning them in favour of other families such as exotic fruits. A similar phenomenon was observed in Indonesia. The stepped up sanitary protection measures led to distinctly scaled down imports of citruses and fruits in general from 2013, which hither- to had registered fine growth.

Middle East now the main driving force of the world market

© Régis Domergue © Régis The Middle East is now the only large market still growing. Imports have practically tripled since 2004, peaking at approximately 1 750 000 t in 2014. Saudi Arabia, which absorbs approximately one third of the volumes in the zone, is continuing its progress. This is also the case with other big markets such as the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait. It is hard to know whether this growth is solid, since consumption levels per capita are tricky to estimate (immigrant population difficult to determine). Only one thing is certain: the most popular produce is the “entry-level price” segment.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 62 November/December 2015 No. 237 in cooperation with FRUCHTHANDEL MAGAZINE

Promo Intex 2, rue Wauthier • 78100 Saint Germain en Laye Tel +33 1 39 62 11 93 Fax +33 9 70 06 82 33 www.fruitlogistica.com p.canovamenke@ promo-intex.com Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite CLOSE-UP

Growth margins not to be overestimated, and based primarily on “entry-level price” profiles It is a subtle yet genuine trend. In the space of ten True, the analysis set out above is rough and ready, as years, the consumption of non-producer countries the Customs data for certain countries is somewhat in Western Europe has gone from approximately lacking in accuracy. Nonetheless, it reveals two impor- 14 kg/capita to 13.5 kg. This 500 g fall represents a tant trends. The first is that the growth prospects for the world market by volume seem relatively limited. trifling matter of 135 000 t per year, if we consider There is now only one real driving market, namely the the 270 million inhabitants in the zone. Yet not all Middle East. Across the whole of Europe there are now the citrus families are in the same boat. only spot margins for development available, with Asia for the moment on standby. The only noteworthy ex- The orange, clearly the hardest hit, has seen its ception is the Southern Hemisphere citrus market. The consumption collapse by one kilo per year over development prospects appear more solid (though the past decade. However, the upstream segment based on more limited volumes), and the competition has spared no effort to stimulate consumption, its a bit less lively, especially due to shrinking Argentinean exports. overhaul of the range of late oranges providing a real quality bonus (development of Lane Late and The second trend is that these markets that could po- other late Navels, to replace Valencia). This inno- tentially absorb additional volumes are clearly focused vation has not prevented a considerable decline on “entry-level prices”; an ultra-competitive segment, in volumes absorbed in certain countries such as which will hot up even more over the coming years. the United Kingdom, which nonetheless has stabi- Egypt, which has developed a cultivation system able lised in recent years, or Germany where the down- to produce a discount orange with decent profitabil- ward trend is by contrast still ongoing. Conversely, © Eric Imbert

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 64 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Consumption in the EU-15: quietly declining...

France and Scandinavia have remained loyal to the ing at 1.6 kg/capita in 2014. It has seen steady growth product, with high market consumption levels. in France, while Primofiore, Verna and Eureka have more recently returned to grace in Germany and the Unsurprisingly, the grapefruit is the other citrus United Kingdom. family hit by consumer disenchantment in Western Europe, with volumes absorbed per capita falling With the easy peelers, we can end this review on a by 200 g in ten years. All the countries in the zone positive note, providing real hope. Consumption, are seeing their consumption wane, with a special very stable between 2008 and 2011, has gained 300 g mention for France and the United Kingdom, with over the last three years. All the big consumer coun- decreases of 400 and 500 g respectively. Unlike tries in the zone have registered a jump since 2012, with the orange, Germany is holding up well, de- with the exception of Scandinavia, weighed down by spite some ups and downs, losing only one hundred falling interest among Danish customers. The reno- grams. Scandinavia remains the region most loyal to vation of the varietal range, much fuller than for the the product, with consumption volumes practically orange, has doubtless helped drive this trend. The stable. supply is much more appealing and a bit earlier at the beginning of the season (Clemenrubi, Oronules), Who would have believed it? Despite limited op- while the qualitative improvement and extension of tions for use and a wide range of ready-to-consume the calendar have been even more evident in the late juices, the lemon is tending to regain ground, its segment, with the development of varieties such as consumption increasing by 200 g in ten years, peak- Nadorcott or Or. Easy peelers are showing the way!

Citrus - EU-15 - Consumption Citrus - EU - Consumption in non-producer countries in main markets

8 18

7 16 14 6 12 5 10 4 Orange 8 Easy peelers 3 kg/capita/year Scandinavia Lemon kg/capita/year 6 Grapefruit France 2 4 Germany United Kingdom 1 2

0 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 65 CLOSE-UP

ity, should see its harvest increase more drastically in the coming years, going by professional sources. Hence its exports, which have boomed in recent years, peaking at 1.3 million tonnes in 2014-15, should retain their momentum. Pakistan is capable of playing a similar role of “entry-level price” supplier for easy peelers, although its exports have tended to peak at approximately 360 000 t in the past two years.

Sustaining efforts aimed at varietal innovation and access to the US market © Régis Domergue © Régis Mediterranean producer countries have for the most part recognised these changes. Surface areas are no longer on the rise in countries that were previously powerful driving forces, such as Spain, though orchards of late Navel, planted on a large scale between the middle and end of the past decade, will continue to push production upwards as they reach their potential. In Morocco, the objectives of the “Maroc Vert” plan have been exceeded significantly ahead of schedule. So the wave of planting should stop, though large surface areas of youthful easy peeler orchards are yet to enter production. A similar phenomenon can be observed in Turkey, although there is a lack of precise figures to evaluate the extent of the additional volumes to expect.

What strategy should be adopted in this context? The high cost price producer countries must more than ever stay ahead of the game and keep working the avenue of qualitative substitution, by continuing to invest in varietal innovation. The financial effort entailed in this costly long-term undertak- ing is significant and hard to sustain, especially in a context of economic crisis weighing down on public budget allowances. However, this is essential in order to stay in the fight on a market which is set to be even more competitive than today, especially in the segment which is currently acting as a lifeline, the late easy peelers, on which many producer countries have banked. They also need to continue working on opening up new markets. The enormous potential represented by the US market, clearly under-consuming in terms of easy peelers, obviously makes it a choice target. Might the mark of greening, which has considerably cooled the en- thusiasm of Californian investors in citrus growing, actually promote a little more flexibility in handling

Eric Imbert, CIRAD [email protected]

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 66 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

World orange juice market

Change is nearly upon us!

Once again this season, the production of the two giants of the sector, i.e. Florida and Brazil, should see another fall. Yet declining demand in the United States and Europe could well continue to depress prices. So are we set for an uneventful next campaign? Quite the reverse, it could mark a transition to a new market balance. © Régis Domergue © Régis

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 67 CLOSE-UP

An umpteenth fall expected in Florida Orange - Florida (USA) and Sao Paulo (Brazil) Just like certain structures only seem to be Harvest held up by their paintwork, now only the Brazil blockbuster style release of the USDA’s cit- 591 rus harvest forecast is capable of retaining 523 Florida a smidgeon of suspense. We have known 454 since the end of the last decade and the 424 general spread of greening that the fall 395 408 was coming, and that it would be marked. 359 444 After dropping below the 100 million field 390 kg kg boxes field crate mark in 2014-15, the 2015-16 harvest - 320 285 should see a new low point of 80 million. 290 311 279 Yet this figure is probably overoptimis- tic, and could well be revised significantly downward during the season, because of 40.8 million 134 139 147 133 the scale of fruit droppage due to greening 105 97 80 (- 10 million field crates between the initial forecast and the final figures in 2014-15,

and - 20 million in 2013-14). If this forecast 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 is confirmed, Florida will have lost half of its production in the space of seven years. Sources: FDOC, USDA

Further decline and poor Brix in Brazil

In Brazil too, the 2015-16 forecast is an extension of the downward trend from previous seasons. The drought of late 2014 and capricious weather conditions during the first flowering period combined with structural sanitary problems to bring down the harvest to its lowest level for the past ten years. Production of concentrated juice could well see an even steeper plunge. © Régis Domergue © Régis The yield appears to be poor (270 field crates for a tonne of concentrate, as opposed to 240 in 2014-15), the heavy rainfall during summer 2015 having reduced the Brix to a point that the body governing the industry, CitrusBR, deemed it fit to issue a press release assuring that Brazilian concentrate would still meet the international standards in force. The situation is hardly set for any favourable improvement in the coming months, with the El Niño phenomenon, said to have been intense this year, bringing heavy rains. Finally, to top it all, the proportion of fruits from the 3rd Orange — Florida and Brazil — Production and 4th flowering periods, with 2015-16 Average 2015-16 too low a juice content for in- millions 85-lb dustrial use, is distinctly above 2015-16 2014-15 vs for the 4 vs field boxes normal. Hence the combined 2014-15 last years average harvest from the two giants of Florida 80 97 - 17 % 120 - 34 % the sector is set to reach a new Brazil 279 311 - 10 % 359 - 22 % historic low point of barely 360 million field crates, an unprece- Cumulated total 359 408 - 12 % 479 - 25 % dented event! Sources: FDOC, USDA

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 68 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Competition and controversy still raging

in the United States and the EU Orange concentrate 65°Brix Average price - CIF Rotterdam These prospects of limited availability of raw material have done nothing to change the market trend. Worse still, rates for concentrate, which had stabilised 3 000 for more than one year at approximately 2 000 USD per tonne into Rotterdam, dropped to 1 800 USD in 2 500 late September. We can only remark that the downward trend in demand is just as solid as the decline in production. The 2014 statistics even seem to con- 2 000 firm the phenomenon accelerating, with world sales down by 8 % between 2011 and 2014, as opposed to approximately 1 % between 2008 and 2011. 1 500 USD/tonne The two main world markets are struggling, with or- 1 000 ange juice assaulted by increasingly intense competition every year from more trendy beverages (energy or tea-based beverages, flavoured water, etc.). And, 500 most paradoxically, its positive nutritional image, based on dozens of studies demonstrating its multi- 0 ple benefits, is being eroded by campaigns pointing

out its high sugar content (some of which at least are 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 clearly being orchestrated by nutritionists with close links to competing beverages lobbies). In the United Source: Foodnews States, which absorbs nearly 40 % of world volumes, orange juice is less and less present at breakfast. The decline seen in 2013 and 2014 remained within a range of - 3 to - 5 % per year, as it has for more than a Orange juice - Consumption decade. The fall has been just as consistent in the EU, which absorbs approximately one third of the worldwide supply. It should be around 3 % between 2013 1 200 and 2014, a figure confirming the acceleration of the downward consumption trend since the beginning 1 000 of the decade.

800

600 EU-28* N. America Latin America Asia** 400 Others Eastern Europe

200 000 of concentrate tonnes 000

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

*+ Switzerland + Romania / **Japan, China, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Turkey Source: Markestraat © Régis Domergue © Régis

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 69 CLOSE-UP

Other markets still only emerging

Asia remains a buoyant outlet, yet is only progressing in small steps. With the exception of Japan, this mar- Orange juice - Production (Florida + ket is based primarily on low juice content beverag- Brazil) and initial brazilian stocks (June) es (nectars, refreshing beverages) rather than on pure juices. Furthermore, the public is still largely unaware Brazilian stocks of the nutritional assets of pure citrus juices, for lack of communication resources. The Arabian States also Juice production have significant development potential by virtue of the youth of their population, the living standards at- tained by a significant proportion, and the ban on al- coholic beverages. Finally, the local Brazilian market is also promising. 1 840 1 426 2 158 1 473

000 tonnes 1 309 Stocks finally melting away?

Pending the awakening of these development reser- voirs, are we condemned to see prices under pressure 662 766 535 510 for the long term? Probably not, since a genuinely key 214 330 factor could see favourable development this season: the high level of Brazilian stocks, which has been

weighing down the market since building up after 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 the big campaigns of 2011-12 and 2012-13. Brazilian concentrated juice production, estimated at approxi- Sources: FDOC, CitrusBR mately 890 000 t in 2015-16, appears to be well short of the expected export level. Exports should not reach the very high level of 2014-15 (more than 1.1 million tonnes), given the recurrent shrinkage of the European markets, and above all the US market, where stocks have built up for both concentrated and fresh juice. Nonetheless, the figure of one million tonnes put forward by the Brazilian inter- Brazil: a sector with professional organisation seems eminently realistic. Hence if we add local consumption, Brazilian stocks could fall to 330 000 t by the end less juice... and more of the 2015-16 Brazilian season (as opposed to just over 510 000 t at concentrated! the end of the 2014-15 season), a level very much compatible with a rise in prices. The medium-term production prospects too provide an argument in favour of higher rates in the long term. Brazil’s production Orange juice — World — Consumption capacity is constantly dwindling. According to Fundecitrus, greening is progressing rap- 000 tonnes % 2014 2014 idly, currently affecting 18 % of orange trees concentrated 2014 world vs vs (i.e. 35 million), half of which are suffering a juice equivalent consumption 2013 2009 fall in yield of approximately 40 % because EU 660 32 % - 3 % - 15 % of the severity of the symptoms (stunted or dropping fruits, limited juice content, etc.). North America 801 39 % - 5 % - 16 % Furthermore, more and more small producers Latin America 128 6 % 0 % + 28 % are abandoning the crop due to lack of profitability. The cultivation area has shrunk by Asia 251 12 % 0 % + 7 % 110 000 ha since 2012-13 to now cover just Eastern Europe 69 3 % - 4 % - 20 % 430 000 ha, according to the USDA. More than half of the harvest is reportedly in the hands Others 133 7 % - 1 % + 15 % of the 120 biggest producers (orchards of 500 Total 2 042 100 % - 3 % - 10 % ha or more), with the 11 000 smallest (up to 50 Source: Markestraat ha) now accounting for just 20 % of volumes.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 70 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

An unprecedented promotion programme in the EU

“A historic moment!” was how the Chairman of CitrusBR described, in his announcement in early October, the launch of an orange juice consumption boosting programme for Europe. Under development since 2012, the project will enjoy a substantial budget of 7 million USD per year. Its multipartite funding is worthy of note, with the three © Régis Domergue © Régis big Brazilian producers contributing 50 %, and 25 companies representing 90 % of European bottling making up the rest. The objective is to reinforce the healthy image of orange juice, mainly by means of opinion leaders (nutritionists, etc.).

Florida: greening omnipresent and hitting hard

The situation in Florida is worse. A study published in 2015 by the FDOC (Impact of Citrus Greening on Citrus Operations in Florida, by Ariel Singerman and Pilar Useche) illustrates the extent to which the citrus industry is in danger, and the hypothesis of it disappear- ing should not be dismissed as sensationalist. Greening, a bacteriosis for which there is currently no countermeasure, and which is lethal to trees within around ten years, is omnipresent. Approximately 90 % of the stock is contaminated (at least one positive tree per acre), and 80 % © Régis Domergue © Régis of trees are affected, already generating major consequences for producers, in more than one Orange industry — Central Florida — Production cost sense. On the one hand, yields are in freefall USD/ha (-40 % on average, with -45 % in the centre of 2003-04 2008-09 2014-15 inflation corrected the State and -33 % in the South-West). On the other hand, production costs are continuing to Weed control 398 606 608 increase, following on from the surge caused at Sanitary treatments 719 1 161 1 745 the end of the last decade by increased use of insecticides to combat the vector, and by the Fertilisation 328 938 1 162 need to replant affected trees. Consequently, Pruning 134 92 156 the cultivation area has shrunk by 73 000 ha since 2006, 4 400 ha of which last year alone, Irrigation 611 527 257  down to just 179 000 ha Replantation 146 620 571

Eric Imbert, CIRAD Total 2 853 4 347 4 498 [email protected] Source: UFL

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 71 CLOSE-UP

There are numerous pests and diseases, which can have serious economic impacts, possibly requiring quarantine (material subject to regulations concerning movement) and the prohibition of Citrus exports to other production zones to prevent the spread of harmful organisms. The use of tolerant rootstocks is an effective measure in the control of several organisms, but the choice of variety is often dictated by the market. In addition to the pests and diseases production of healthy plant material, the control of these pests and diseases generally combines genetic, biological and chemical components in an integrated control framework. © CIRAD © E. Laville © E. © F. Gatineau © F.

Citrus Tristeza Huanglongbing (greening) Citrus canker Virus: Citrus Tristeza Phloem: Liberibacter africanum, Bacterium: Xanthomonas diseases Closterovirus L. asiaticum axonopodis pv. citri Distribution All regions except some Asia, subtropical and tropical Asia, South America, Florida, Mediterranean countries. Africa, Middle East. certain regions of Africa. Symptoms Dieback of varieties grafted on Shoot yellowing, leaf mottling, Corky pustules on leaves and sour orange (except lemon trees), small poorly coloured fruits. fruits. vein clearing and stem pitting. Susceptible species Lime, orange and grapefruit trees. Broad host spectrum. Affects Broad host spectrum. Above all orange and mandarin above all. grapefruit, orange, lime and some mandarins. Transmission Aphids (Aphis gossypii, Toxoptera Psyllas (Diaphorina citri, Tryoza By air and water. citricida). erytreae). Economic impacts Loss of trees and decreased Tree dieback, shorter orchard life. Harvest loss. production. Quarantine organism Present in the EU. Not present in the EU. Not present in the EU. © Vilardebounion © D. Vincenot, SUAD Réunion SUAD Vincenot, © D. Réunion SUAD Vincenot, © D.

Fruit fly Thrips Diaspine Citrus Diptera Tephritidae: various Thysanoptera: thripidae. Hemiptera: Diaspididae. species of the genera Ceratitis, Scirtothrips spp. (S. aurantii, Genera Aonidiella, Unaspis, pests Anastrepha, Dacus, Bactrocera, S. citri, S. dorsalis) Chrysomphalus, Cornuaspis, etc. etc. Distribution American continent: Anastrepha. Variable according to the species. Variable according to the species. Africa: Ceratitis, Dacus. Present in the Mediterranean Present in the Mediterranean Asia-Pacific: Bactrocera. area: Tetranychus urticae, area: Aonidiella aurantii, Panonychus citri. Cornuaspis beckii, etc. Symptoms Holing caused by females laying Greyish patches in a ring around Scale on leaves, shoots and/or eggs in the fruits. the fruit stalk (thrips feeding on fruits, trees weakened in case of young fruits). large populations. Susceptible species Mandarin, orange, grapefruit. Orange, mandarin, tangor, Broad host spectrum. Mandarins and thin-skinned tangelo, lemon, etc. oranges susceptible. Economic impacts Harvest loss. Deterioration of the external Deterioration of the external ap- appearance of fruits. pearance of fruits. Quarantine organism Not present in the EU. Not present in the EU. Not present in the EU.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 72 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

The world’s leading fruit crop grown between the latitudes 40° N and 40° S, citrus fruits were domesticated in Asia. Ancient texts Citrus refer to sour citrus fruits in India from 800 BC onwards, and mandarins, oranges and grapefruit in China at the time of Confucius. Trade and military conquests contributed strongly to the spread of citrus. This was first overland via Asia Minor and the Middle cultivation East as Roman and Greek influence spread (citron fruit, bitter orange) and then through Islam and the Crusades (sour citrus). The citron fruit was the first species grown in the Mediterranean sev-

Photos © Eric Imbert eral centuries before the Common Era. New citrus fruits such as sweet oranges were introduced around the Mediterranean basin in the Sixteenth Century thanks to Portuguese navigators and the possibility of direct maritime trade with the Far East and China. These species were then disseminated in Africa and America. The first mandarins were introduced in the Mediterranean region much later. The fruit is mentioned at the beginning of the Nineteenth Century in Italy and not until 1850 in North Africa. However, the Mediterranean has been an important diversification zone for the three most important economic species—orange, mandarin and lemon. The grapefruit, C. paradisi, a natural hybrid of shaddock, is one of the few commercial citrus fruits to have originated in the Caribbean.

Preliminary pruning is performed in the early years. Agronomy Annual maintenance pruning then balances and aer- ates the foliage and ensures the renewal of fruit-bearing The most suitable soils for growing citrus are slightly acid- shoots. Irrigation is essential in dry areas and can be in ic and well-filtering. The choice of rootstock is one of the the form of subfoliar sprinkling or trickle irrigation (soak- essential factors for success, giving tolerance or resist- ers, drip, etc.). Fertilisation can be combined with irriga- ance to biotic (soil pests and diseases, degenerescence tion in this case (fertigation) to save inputs and ensure diseases) and abiotic constraints (acidic or alkaline soils, steady mineral nutrition. salinity, reaction to cold or drought, etc.). It strongly in- fluences factors such as vigour, the start of production, and fruit yield and quality. The risk of contamination by Mineral fertilisation must make up for losses via fruits tristeza has led to Poncirus hybrids (Citrange, Citrumelo) and pruning and ensure the growth of the vegetative being favoured over the sour orange. Disease-free plant organs. Fertilisation includes nitrogen, phosphorus and material must be used. Today, new rootstocks are bred by potassium. Trace elements are sprayed on the foliage. hybridisation or using biotechnologies. Fertilisation is based on the results of mineral analyses of leaves and soil. Certification plans have been set up in many countries. They combine the use of healthy plant material and Among growth regulators, gibberellic acid improves the prevention of possible recontamination by inoculum or setting of clementines and synthetic auxins increase fruit a disease spread by an insect vector by siting outdoor grade. nurseries in clean zones or by sheltered production in risk zones. The rootstocks are sown, replanted and then shield budded or chip budded, using a bud from a shoot of the desired variety.

It is recommended that the base of the trunk should be set in a slightly raised position at planting to limit attacks by Phytophthora. Tillage is reduced after planting so as not to damage the surface roots. The base of the trunk must be weeded. The maintenance technique used (per- manent plant cover, chemical or mechanical weed control) depends on soil/climate and economic constraints.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 73 CLOSE-UP

The influence of climatic conditions

Citruses originated in South-East Asia. The climate there is equatorial, tropical or subtropical according to the lati- tude and always strongly marked by a monsoon regime. The year features a hot, humid season (the monsoon season) and a fairly rain-free, often cooler season. The devel- opmental cycle of citrus is keyed into these seasons. The hot, humid period is one of intense physiological activity, with shoot and fruit growth. Vegetative growth halts in the cool, dry period, a feature all the more marked when drought is severe or temperatures low. A marked halting of vegetative growth is essential before any flowering of certain citruses such as mandarin, orange, grapefruit and shaddock. Others with repeat-flowering such as citron, lemon and lime have less strict requirements but react to the same phenomena. Strong insolation is also better tolerated when the water supply is satisfactory. Irrigation must be used in citrus Temperatures between 21 and 30°C are optimum for growing in arid or very dry regions. Plant water require- physiological activity. This is strongly reduced when the ments are directly correlated with the climatic parame- temperature is lastingly and significantly higher than ter total radiation (the main feature) related to insolation, 35°C or lower than 13°C. Citrus growing is in fact limit- temperature, wind, relative humidity, etc. These parame- ed by threshold and ceiling temperatures. Citrus trees ters are used in water requirement models and irrigation are partially or totally destroyed at temperatures lower management tools. then 0°C. The extent of the damage depends firstly on frost duration and intensity, and secondly on the suscep- tibility of plant parts and the type of citrus. Thus flowers, Temperature plays an important role in the changes of young leaves and fruits are more sensitive than branch- fruit pigmentation as maturity approaches. Temperatures es and trunks. Citron, lime and lemon are more sensitive lower than 15°C cause the disappearance of chlorophyll than mandarin, orange and grapefruit. Temperatures pigments from the epidermis. This reveals carotenoid lower than -7°C are generally lethal for citrus trees. pigments. The synthesis of carotenoids (yellow and or- Temperatures higher than 50°C also cause damage. ange) and lycopene (red, specific to shaddock and grapefruit) is enhanced by a temperature of between 15 and 35°C. Red anthocyanin pigments (blood oranges) require lower temperatures but still higher than 12°C.

The synthesis and senescence of the various pigments are thus strongly affected by ambient temperature. In the tropics, the absence of low temperatures means that chlorophyll pigments do not disappear and the fruits remain green. Anthocyanin synthesis does not take place for the same reason and blood oranges remain blonde. In contrast, the red pigmentation of grapefruit is more intense. The alternate high daytime temperatures and cool nights in Mediterranean zones create an optimum environment for the breakdown of green chlorophyll pigments and the synthesis of the yellow, orange and red pigments of the various types of orange, mandarin and lemon. The external colour of the fruits is thus very well expressed.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 74 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Citrus fruits are not climacteric, so their quality does not improve after harvesting. Suitable storage can slow their development: an appropriate positive temperature, 85 to 90% relative humidity and ventilation. Fruits must be Citrus harvesting harvested at a stage of maturation close to optimum ripeness—and hence optimum quality. Quality is char- acterised mainly by the juice content, the dry extract/ acidity ratio and flavour. Fruits must be handled with and storage care during the harvest and not be wetted, so as to limit subsequent risks of physiological deterioration or the entry of pathogens. Transport to the packing stations must be carried out as soon as possible.

Degreening Physiological Fungal and storage deterioration damage

As fruits approach the ripe stage, green This is caused mainly by impacts in the or- More than 75% of postharvest citrus rots are chlorophyll pigments disappear gradually, chard that are revealed later or during storage. caused by two Penicillium moulds (P. italicum revealing the other yellow, orange and red and P. digitatum). Some rots should not ap- Frost: in the orchard or after the harvest. The epidermis pigments. This change requires pear during storage if harvesting is perfor- skin looks wet and translucent and the seg- cool temperatures lower than 13°C. These med carefully: ments dry out. temperature conditions are not found in •• bitter rot caused by Geotrichum candidum the tropics or in a Mediterranean climate Chilling injury: exposure to temperatures affects fallen fruits or fruits soiled with in early autumn when the early varieties that are above freezing point but lower than earth; are picked. The fruits therefore remain the optimum storage temperature. They cause green or are poorly coloured. Degreening the bursting of the essential oil glands, result- •• Cladosporium herbarum causes symp- is possible if significant breakdown of ing in the burning of tissue and the appear- toms similar to those of Alternaria citri. chlorophyll pigments has started natu- ance of small sunken brown spots on the peel; Contamination by rotting, infested plant rally. Degreening is performed by placing these may become coalescent. Fungal dam- wastes occurs during harvesting; the fruits in a chamber with a controlled age may subsequently occur. • atmosphere containing 1.0 to 5.0 ppm eth- • black mould rot of peel caused by ylene. The temperature is set at 22 to 25°C Oleocellosis: caused by temperature varia- Aspergillus niger affects wounded or dam- for oranges, and at a lower temperature tions in the field or bruising during harvesting aged fruits stored at a temperature of over for lemons, with relative humidity of 85 to or storage. Symptoms are very similar to those 15°C; of chilling injury. 90%. The technique reduces storage time •• infection in the orchard by Botryosphaeria since ethylene stimulates senescence in Abrasion by brushing: caused by skin fragil- ribis, Physalospora rhodina or Diaporthe cit- citrus fruits. The duration of chilled storage ity, the use of brushes that are too hard or by ri causes a brown and then blackish rot of can be lengthened by the application of too high a brushing speed. The upper layers of the skin and the underlying tissues in the wax or a stretch film reducing respiratory the skin are eroded, resulting in dry patches stalk zone during storage. It is controlled exchange and water loss. In contrast, con- of varying width and flow of essential oil that by orchard or postharvest treatments. trolled atmospheres have little or no effect. burns the tissue.

Post-harvest Blue mould Green mould Black rot Brown patch Brown rot Penicillium italicum Penicillium digitatum Anthracnose Glomerella cingulata Phytophthora sp. diseases Alternaria citri (= C. gloeosporioides) Symptoms and Paling and softening Slight paling and softening Black rot on Spotting of unripe fruits Start: spotted discoloration of part of fruit of the skin; white of the epidermis; then bright columella and developing into brown peel and then spread of the affected down (mycelium) white down grows in circular segments, and/or patches that become soft patches; variable colour with then appears; layers, covers with green peel. with ripening and then brown patches and finally fruit covered with blue spores from the centre. The affect the pulp. Marked disintegration. In storage: fine spores; pulp affect- entire fruit (peel, pulp) is odour. Degreened fruits white mycelium with brown ed simultaneously. finally affected, fruit cannot be very susceptible. areas; characteristic odour. eaten from the beginning. Infection Spores on intact Spores on wounded Wounds, penetra- Fruits wounded in the Spores on intact epidermis. pathway epidermis, fruit to epidermis. tion by the navel field. fruit contamination. and the style scar. Site of From packing to In the orchard, but above all Orchard and Orchard. Orchard: splashing with infection consumption. from picking to consumption. warehouse. water. Packing: contaminated washing water. Storage: fruit to fruit contamination. Species and All varieties. All varieties. Navel orange, All varieties, but above all All varieties (orange more varieties madarin, lemon. mandarins. susceptible). susceptible

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 75 CLOSE-UP

Orange

Main citrus Valencia late

Originating in the Azores, Valencia is varieties the most commonly planted variety in the world. This medium-sized variety is round and slightly oblong. The peel is photos © Régis Domergue thin, well-coloured and slightly grainy. The flesh is very juicy, with 2 to 4 seeds. It is also known as Maroc Late (from Morocco) and Jaffa Late (from Israel). Easy peelers

Clementine Navel This group of varieties is probably the result of hybridisation of Citrus deliciosa A round to oval dessert orange with and an orange. Its success — consid- a strongly developed navel. The peel erable around the Mediterranean — is is grainy, thin and fairly well colour- related to the useful fruit characteris- ed. The flesh is crisp, fine and not very tics (seedless in pure plantations, good juicy. Early cultivars (Naveline) and late colour and flavour) combined with a cultivars (Navelate, Lane Late) in the long sales period. Indeed, clementines Navel group are available on Northern are present on markets in the Northern Hemisphere markets from October to Hemisphere from the end of September May. to the end of February thanks to the different cultivars (Marisol, Oroval, Oronules, Nules, Common or Fine, Hernandine, Nour, etc.). Maltaise Nova This high-quality well-coloured orange is grown almost only in the Cape Bon re- Present on markets from mid-Novem- gion of Tunisia, where conditions bring ber to January, this medium-sized fruit out its full potential. It is medium-sized is the result of a cross between common and slightly oval. The soft peel is slightly clementine and Tangelo. It has useful grainy and easy to remove. The tender, qualities: marked skin colour, a deep juicy flesh is little coloured for a blood orange tender juicy seedless pulp, and orange. The flavour is particularly pleas- sweet flavour with low acidity. The fruits ant with sweetness balanced by a good must nevertheless be picked rapidly to level of acidity. prevent swelling of the peel. It is widely grown in Spain (Clemenvilla), Israel (Suntina) and Morocco.

Minneola Salustiana A hybrid between tangerine and grapefruit, this large round fruit is character- Very popular in Spain, this blonde juice ised by a pronounced stem-end neck. orange is medium-sized to large. The The peel is a particularly strong reddish peel is of medium thickness with fine orange colour. The pulp, with few seeds, granulation. The flesh is delicate and has a very special flavour. The variety is sweet with a very pleasant taste. It is grown mainly in Israel and Turkey. also seedless.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 76 November/December 2015 No. 237 CLOSE-UP

Lemon

Eureka

This variety, little planted in the Mediterranean, forms the greater part of world production. It is widespread in the Southern Hemisphere. The fruit is of average size, elliptic to oblong in shape with a medium-sized apical nipple that is slender at the base. The peel is fine to medium thick. The pulp is generally seedless and rich in juice with high acidity.

Fino

This cultivar dominates Spanish production and is abundantly grown in the Murcia region. The fruit is a regular spherical or oval shape. The nipple is shorter than that of Verna. The peel is thin and smooth. The pulp contains 5 to 8 pips and is juicier than that of Verna.

Verna

The fruit is medium to large with a pronounced, broad-based nipple. The rough epidermis is fairly thick. The juice has high acidity but only a medium ex- traction yield. One of the main Spanish varieties.

Limes

The Tahiti lime (Citrus latifolia) is a triploid variety and is the most widespread of the sour limes. The peel is green/ yellow to pale yellow and contains an essential oil with a very characteristic odour. The pulp is generally seedless, yellowish green and rich in very sour juice. Another variety, Mexican lime (Citrus aurantifolia), is little exported as it contains a large number of seeds.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 77 THE LATEST ON...

Dominican avocado

Big potential exploited in-situ

A traditional crop, the avocado is an integral part of the Dominican landscape, putting the country among the world leaders in terms of quantities produced. It enjoys good pedoclimatic conditions and high local consumption. However, its export performances are still well below the level that could be expected, with annual volumes stagnating at around 20 000 tonnes for the past decade. Shipments remain focused on tropical varieties aimed at the US East Coast, although small- scale Hass production was established around twenty years ago, without any notable developments to date.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 78 November/December 2015 No. 237 THE LATEST ON...

Avocado - Dominican Republic Evolution of production

400 350 300

000 tonnes 150 100 50 Small country, big production 0

As astonishing as it might appear given its small area (48 400 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 km², i.e. less than one tenth of France), the Dominican Source: FAO Republic is among the world’s top 3 to 5 avocado producer countries, depending on the year. However, we should note that production estimates vary greatly between sources, in the absence of reliable data, with the last national survey (Inventario Nacional de Aguacate) dating from 2006. Agriculture. It is located mainly in the north of the country, in the Cibao region: La Vega, San Francisco, Hermanas Mirabal According to the FAO, avocado production went from and Nagua. Certified plantations were launched in 2007-08 288 700 tonnes in 2010 to 387 500 tonnes in 2013, and is the with 50 ha, but the phytosanitary problems encountered number 4 fruit produced in the Dominican Republic, behind and the strict import conditions imposed by the United the banana, papaya and pineapple. The Dominican Ministry States got the better of the motivation and interest of the of Agriculture puts the avocado as the number 2 fruit crop, producers. Growth remained modest, or even flat, if not ac- with 31 440 ha, behind citruses (31 960 ha) and ahead of the tually negative. According to American statistics, the United banana (28 300 ha, 2015 estimates). The 2006 survey men- States imported 5.4 tonnes of organic Hass or similar avoca- tions that surface areas doubled between 2002 and 2006, do over the past five years. The tropical organic varieties seg- from 10 700 ha to 22 100 ha. So they apparently continued ment is involved only in exports where clearly identified, or to expand, though at a slower rate, over the following dec- else in marginal local consumption of non-certified organic ade: + 42 % between 2006 and 2015. produce which bypasses the supermarket sector circuits.

In 2013, the Ministry of Agriculture calculated the production cost at between 830 and 1 660 euros/ha. Various local studies point to yields being among the highest in the world, A highly fragmented sector of 12 to 15 tonnes/ha. While this information may prove to be accurate in part, we will refrain from making generalisa- Commercial plantations vary greatly in size, from a few tions since it hardly reflects the situation on a national level. hundred trees to a few hundred thousand. The produce is sourced from a multitude of farms, 87 % of which covering Certified organic avocado production appears to be insig- less than 6 ha. Only 4 % can be considered large scale, with nificant, with 117 ha in 2012 according to the Ministry of a surface area in excess of 30 ha, and 9 % are medium sized, with 6 to 30 ha. They were developed from seeds of creole clones or creole Avocado — Dominican Republic — Production cost in 2013 rootstocks, and grafts of selected va- Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Years 5 to 8 rieties. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, this production is of di- DOP/ha 69 821 45 394 56 635 62 506 90 769 rect benefit to 15 000 families, and euros/ha 1 277 830 1 036 1 143 1 660 400 000 people, creating direct and Average exchange rate in 2013: 1 euro = 54.69 DOP / Source: Dominican Ministry of Agriculture indirect jobs.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 79 THE LATEST ON...

While big production groups can be counted on the fin- Bigger organised plantations developed thereafter based gers of one hand, there are two dominant groups, one of on grafts of tropical varieties selected mainly in Florida and which produces Hass and which also processes it (guaca- Puerto Rico. They are located in other zones of the country: mole). There are partnerships with US companies among Baní, San Cristóbal, Ocoa, Mao, La Romana, Moca, Montecristi, Dominican producers and/or exporters. A Spanish group re- Duvergé and Elías Piña. cently also invested in this production. Although the avocado grows right across the country, the A regional avocado cluster was created in 2005 at Cambita bulk of marketed production is currently based in three Garabito, San Cristobal province, the main production zone. zones: in the centre, south/south-west of the country run- In 2009 it was granted US funds, as well as other sources ning south in parallel with the central mountain range (San thereafter, for its development; in particular for collective Juan valley, Sierra de Neiba and valley, Sierra de Baoruco), as GlobalGap certification funded by the European Union. This well as the northern provinces (Cibao), which are rainier and programme was still running in Q4 2015. The cluster has a therefore more prone to anthracnose. The 2006 survey divid- packing station equipped with refrigeration and available ed the orchards into practically equal parts between these on a service provision basis for its members. It has just one three zones, with the northern provinces dominating slightly. hundred or so declared members (apparently no sector leaders), the smallest cultivating a quarter of a hectare and The major production zones are: the biggest approximately 100 ha. •• for the south/south-west and central regions: provinces of San Cristóbal (Cambita Garabito in particular), San José de Ocoa, Elías Piña on the border with Haiti, San Juan and Three main Azua (Padre las Casas), Peravia (administrative centre Baní), Barahona, Baoruco and Independencia (La Descubierta); production zones •• for the northern provinces: Espaillat (Moca, Villa Cafetalera), Puerto Plata (Altamira, El Mamey), Valverde (Mao, Amina). The first commercial plantations emerged in the north of the country, in the Cibao region, at Altamira, Guananico and Hass has been planted in the west of the country, on the border Moca, from creole cultivars reproduced by sowing. From with Haiti, in the provinces of Elias Piña and Independencia, there, the avocado spread across the country, and the tree where the altitude lends itself favourably to its development can now very often be found in yards, where it is appreciat- (zones of 1 000 m and above). It is cultivated mainly by two ed for its generous shade. Dominican producers.

Valverde Avocado — Dominican Republic Main production zones Puerto Plata Espaillat

HAITI Elias Pina San Juan

Azua Baoruco SANTO DOMINGO Independencia Barahona San San José Peravia Cristobal de Ocoa

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 80 November/December 2015 No. 237 THE LATEST ON... © Bettina Balmer

Tropical and creole varieties dominant Avocado — Dominican Republic Main exportable varieties The Dominican Republic sells nearly exclusively smooth- skinned tropical avocados, fairly large in size (570 to 630 g per unit for Semil 34, usually exported to the United States). There are reportedly hundreds of avocado varieties in the Dominican Republic. Nonetheless, for reasons •• Benny •• Lula of productivity, organoleptic quality and transportability, only twenty or so have been developed for export. •• Bernie / Béneke •• Meléndez

Semil 34 (a West Indian-Guatemalan hybrid) is by far the •• Booth-7 •• Polla most widespread variety, with approximately two-thirds of planted commercial surface areas. It is followed by the cre- •• Booth-8 •• Pollock ole, Choquette (a West Indian-Guatemalan hybrid), Carla, Pollock (derived from enhancing the West Indian breed), •• Busito •• Popenoe Lula (a Guatemalan-Mexican hybrid) and Booth 7 and 8 (West Indian-Guatemalan hybrids). •• Carla •• Principe Negro •• Choquette •• Semil 34 According to the local literature and the producers, Hass surface areas cover around 3 000 ha. Nonetheless, we are •• Dr. Dupuis •• Semil 43 entitled to doubt the accuracy of this figure: in the absence of local consumption, exports (2 500 tonnes on average to •• Hall •• Simmonds the United States) are merely a pale reflection of these areas, whereas we could expect ten times those volumes on •• Hass the market. Should we expect an exponential increase in Hass availability in the near future? Nothing could be less certain, yet this hypothesis could not be validated.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 81 THE LATEST ON...

Harvest calendar

Roughly speaking, there are two harvest periods, distinguished by variety and production altitude. Under 400 m above sea level, and for the early varieties, the harvest is carried out during the summer months (June to September), whereas above that and for the late varieties, it is an autumn and winter activity instead (October to March).

The optimum altitudes for varieties produced in the Dominican Republic are:

•• from 0 to 500 m above sea level: Simmonds, Booth 7 and 8, Pollock, Popenoe, Bernie, Dr. Dupuis; •• from 500 to 1 000 m: Semil 34 and 43, Choquette, Hall, Melendez, Carla; •• above 1 000-1 200 m: Hass.

Avocado — Dominican Republic — Harvest calendar by altitude and variety J J A S O N D J F M A M Early varieties: Coastal zones, < 400 m creoles, Simmonds, sea level Dr. Dupuis, Popenoe, Pollock Later varieties: Zones > 400 m sea level Semil 34, Choquette, Lula, Carla, Hall, Hass

Avocado — Dominican Republic — Harvest calendar by variety J J A S O N D J F M A M Carla Choquette Hall Hass Lula Melendez Pollock Popenoe Semil 34 (main export variety) Semil 43 Simmonds Dominican creole varieties Sources: Dominican Ministry of Agriculture, CEI-RD, professionals

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 82 November/December 2015 No. 237 THE LATEST ON...

Main varieties cultivated in Dominican Republic

Bernie or Béneke Carla Choquette

Dr. Dupuis Hall Meléndez

Pollock Popenoe Semil 34

Simmonds Criollo mojado Criollo verde

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 83 THE LATEST ON...

Diseases and pests

© Bettina Balmer Like their Mexican or Caribbean counterparts, Dominican avocado trees are prone to root rot due to Phytophthora cinnanomi and anthracnose (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides). Mildew (Oidium sp), Sphaceloma persea (“Roña” as it is known locally), si- gatoka (Cercospora purpura Cooke) and sooty mould (Capnodium) are also present.

The main parasites present in Dominican orchards are various types of thrip (Frankliniella spp., Scirtothrips aceri Moulton, Liothrips perseae, Cicadellidae), fruit flies (Anastrepha obliqua), red and white spiders (Oligonychus punicae Hirst, Oligonychus homonychus perseae Tuttle, Baker and Abbatiello), as well as Pseudacysta perseae (locally known as “chinche de encaje”) and Xilosandrus compactus (“Barrenador de ramas”).

The Mediterranean fruit fly has been raging since November 2014, halting avocado exports to the United States. The Dominican Republic is still free from the Oriental fruit fly, although to do so it has had to close its borders since October 2015 to some fruit from Florida.

Domestic market: substantial consumption

The domestic market absorbs more than 90 % of production. The avocado is widespread in the Dominican diet, with consumers by far favouring creole and West Indian varieties for their sweetness (Hass is not to be found on the stalls). The internal market represents a population of nearly 10 million inhabitants, to which we should add approximately 4.5 million tourists per year.

This fruit was selling in Santo Domingo at 50-55 DOP per piece (approximately 1.00-1.10 euro) in super- markets in September 2015, 25-30 DOP (approximately 0.50-0.60 euro) in the street, and 10-15 DOP (approximately 0.20-0.30 euro) outside of Santo Domingo (rural areas and other towns close to production centres).

The country has guacamole and avocado oil production facilities, using sorting rejects.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 84 November/December 2015 No. 237 THE LATEST ON...

Exports firmly focused on the United States

For around a decade, the annual exports of the Dominican Republic have Avocado — Dominican Republic — Evolution of exports maintained a level of between 17 000 of which USA of which and 21 000 tonnes, practically all trop- Volume (including Puerto Europe and Value Years ical varieties and for the vast majority Rico) Caribbean Semil 34. (tonnes) (tonnes) (%) (tonnes) (000 USD fob) 2005 17 193 15 871 92 1 322 12 704 The country is firmly focused on the 2006 12 100 11 447 95 653 11 378 United States, the natural market as a neighbour and the number one eco- 2007 5 050 2 845 56 2 205 12 090 nomic partner. New York and Florida 2008 21 751 16 706 77 5 045 21 316 have a large immigrant Dominican 2009 18 605 15 290 82 3 315 16 343 community (several million), and more widely a Latin American and 2010 18 682 14 535 78 4 147 18 016 Hispanic community, which are heavy 2011 20 553 17 181 84 3 372 21 829 consumers of tropical avocado. The 2012 17 400 15 475 89 1 925 19 611 United States has absorbed on aver- 2013 20 754 17 498 84 3 256 22 669 age 82 % of export volumes over the past ten year. Puerto Rico receives 2014 19 268 15 126 79 4 142 22 526 15 to 25 % of volumes bound for the Sources : DGA, CEI-RD United States, and represents the Avocado - Dominican Republic number 2 outlet after the East coast. Exports

If we closely analyse US imports of Dominican avocado, 25 Hass and similar varieties represent only small quantities compared to the tropical varieties, very rarely exceeding 20 15 to 17 % of total exports, i.e. 2 500 tonnes per year approximately. The US Hass Avocado Board, for its part, an- nounced even lower figures: according to this source, over 15 the past ten years the volume has exceeded 2 000 tonnes only twice, in 2008 and 2009, with 2 850 and 2 770 tonnes 10

respectively. 000 tonnes Total 5 Europe remains a clearance market little exploited by United States Dominican exporters. The Netherlands, France and the United Kingdom are well behind the United States. 0 Besides the unfamiliarity of Dominican producers and exporters with Europe, the avocados from this source, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 despite their taste quality, are unsuited to European de- Sources: DGA, CEI-RD mand, which is dominated by Hass. Furthermore, the dis- tance counts against the tropical varieties, which are more fragile and delicate in transport and storage. Consumed primarily during holiday periods in Europe, these avocados must reach the shelves still very firm, which does not facilitate the task of the exporters.

Some light flows are aimed at the Caribbean: Saint Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad and Tobago, etc. © Bettina Balmer

There are barely ten or so exporters, some of which are also producers. The sector leaders, like the producers, can also be counted on the fingers of one hand. They include the two main production groups.

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 85 THE LATEST ON...

The Dominican Republic has a dozen ports, half of which are containerised. The avocados are shipped primarily: •• to the United States via the ports of Haina (the country’s main seaport, near Santo Domingo) Avocado — Dominican Republic and Puerto Plata in the north of the country; Exports to USA • • to Europe via the multimodal port of Caucedo incl. Hass and similar (near Santo Domingo), the country’s second Value Volume Years varieties biggest port in terms of container transport, the most recent and definitely the most (000 USD) (tonnes) (tonnes) (%) modern; 2010 15 044 14 820 2 510 17 •• on a top-up basis via the port of Manzanillo, 2011 18 121 16 686 4 303 26 which specialises in banana shipping; 2012 18 095 15 160 2 364 16 •• via the country’s various international air- 2013 18 242 16 979 2 591 15 ports, which receive millions of tourists every year, according to freight availability (Puerto 2014 17 187 15 171 2 454 16 First 8 months Plata and Santo Domingo Las Americas air- 8 830 9 114 782 9 port). Air-freight shipments are still minor in of 2015 relation to sea-freight, and are bound primar- Sources: DGA, CEI-RD ily for Europe. Avocado - Dominican Republic The shipping time is: Hass and similar varieties share in exports to USA •• 9 to 12 days for Europe (primarily the United Kingdom and Rotterdam); 18 •• 5 days to New York; 16 •• 2 days to Miami. 14 12 Into the season of peril? 10 8 000 tonnes The Dominican Republic, previously free from the 6 Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata), was infected in 4 Hass and similar varieties November 2014 in the east of the country (Punta Cana). The reaction of the United States was not long in coming, 2 Other varieties with borders closed from March 2015 to around twenty 0 Dominican fruits and vegetables, including the tropical 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* avocado. In November 2015, the borders were still closed, with the export season about to start. *First 8 months of 2015 / Sources: DGA, CEI-RD

Hass was spared this measure, yet it represents only a small proportion of volumes shipped to the United States. Suffice it to say that Dominican tropical avocado producers and exporters are set for a difficult winter season, left with no other option than to sell locally (though what is the market absorption capacity?), regionally in the Caribbean (though here too, the island markets are not so expandable), or even on new markets such as Canada. As for Europe, the impediments remain: little in the way of

In addition, after the heavy drought which hit the country, below-average size fruits should predominate in the 2015-16 harvest 

Bettina Balmer, consultant [email protected]

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 86 November/December 2015 No. 237 WHOLESALE MARKET PRICES IN EUROPE - OCTOBER 2015

Wholesale market prices in Europe October 2015

EUROPEAN UNION - EURO Germany Belgium France Holland UK AVOCADO Air HASS MEXICO Box 10.25 TROPICAL BRAZIL Box 18.00 DOMINICAN REP. Box 12.80 Sea ETTINGER ISRAEL Box 8.00 8.25 9.00 HASS CHILE Box 11.00 9.92 KENYA Box 8.33 MEXICO Box 9.25 PERU Box 11.50 SOUTH AFRICA Box 10.00 8.88 11.10 RINTON SOUTH AFRICA Box 7.00 RYAN SOUTH AFRICA Box 9.00 Truck BACON SPAIN Box 12.00 7.75 7.63 FUERTE SPAIN Box 10.31

BANANA Air RED ECUADOR kg 5.25 SMALL COLOMBIA kg 6.90 ECUADOR kg 5.67 Sea SMALL ECUADOR kg 1.70

CARAMBOLA Air MALAYSIA kg 4.86 5.31 6.94

CHAYOTE Sea COSTA RICA kg 1.50

COCONUT Sea NOT DETERMINED COTE D'IVOIRE Bag 9.50 11.50 14.91 SRI LANKA Bag 11.10 YOUNG THAILAND Bag 12.50

DATE Sea BAHRI PERU kg 7.20 DEGLET ALGERIA kg 5.50 KOUAT ALIGH TUNISIA kg 1.88 MEDJOOL ISRAEL kg 11.00 7.31 5.97 MOZAFATI IRAN kg 3.30 NOT DETERMINED TUNISIA kg 1.98 STONELESS TUNISIA kg 2.75

DURIAN Air THAILAND kg 10.00

EDDOE Sea COSTA RICA kg 1.77

GINGER Sea BRAZIL kg 2.50 1.88 1.50 CHINA kg 2.50 1.31 1.55 PERU kg 1.33

GUAVA Sea BRAZIL kg 3.05

KUMQUAT Air ISRAEL kg 5.20 SOUTH AFRICA kg 5.00 4.38 5.20

LIME Sea BRAZIL kg 1.33 1.90 1.60 1.54 GUATEMALA kg 1.40 MEXICO kg 1.44 2.10 1.54 1.78

LITCHI Sea AUSTRALIA kg 1.73

MANGO Air KENT BRAZIL kg 6.25 NAM DOK MAI THAILAND kg 9.60 Sea ATKINS BRAZIL kg 1.32 1.28 2.00 KEITT BRAZIL kg 1.88 2.25 KENT BRAZIL kg 1.50 1.64 NOT DETERMINED COLOMBIA kg 1.04 PALMER BRAZIL kg 1.64 Truck KENT SPAIN kg 5.50 OSTEEN SPAIN kg 1.21 2.68

MANIOC Sea COSTA RICA kg 1.30 1.28

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite No. 237 November/December 2015 87 WHOLESALE MARKET PRICES IN EUROPE - OCTOBER 2015

EUROPEAN UNION - EUROS Germany Belgium France Holland UK MELON Sea CANTALOUP BRAZIL kg 1.90 1.48 CHARENTAIS BRAZIL kg 2.00 GALIA BRAZIL kg 1.55 1.67 ISRAEL kg 1.20 1.94 HONEY DEW BRAZIL kg 0.80 0.92 0.99 PIEL DE SAPO BRAZIL kg 1.15 SEEDLESS WATER BRAZIL kg 0.80 0.70 0.78 WATERMELON BRAZIL kg 0.64 0.81

PAPAYA Air FORMOSA BRAZIL kg 3.11 NOT DETERMINED BRAZIL kg 3.40 3.40 3.57 5.09 MALAYSIA kg 4.44 THAILAND kg 5.25 Sea FORMOSA BRAZIL kg 2.06 NOT DETERMINED BRAZIL kg 1.98 ECUADOR kg 2.43 2.18 PASSION FRUIT Air NOT DETERMINED COLOMBIA kg 4.50 5.13 6.00 5.25 PURPLE ISRAEL kg 5.00 KENYA kg 5.13 6.24 MALAYSIA kg 6.25 ZIMBABWE kg 5.13 5.25 YELLOW COLOMBIA kg 8.33 ECUADOR kg 9.25 VIETNAM kg 9.00 PHYSALIS Air PREPACKED COLOMBIA kg 9.00 6.67 7.81 Sea COLOMBIA kg 6.04 PINEAPPLE Air VICTORIA MAURITIUS Box 14.00 MAURITIUS kg 3.60 REUNION kg 3.90 Sea MD-2 COSTA RICA Box 12.25 12.75 13.83 COSTA RICA kg 1.35 COSTA RICA Piece 2.15 COTE D'IVOIRE kg 1.28 PANAMA Box 13.00 PANAMA kg 1.20 PITAHAYA Air RED VIETNAM kg 8.09 YELLOW ECUADOR kg 8.80 PLANTAIN Sea COLOMBIA kg 1.10 ECUADOR kg 1.00 1.05 WINDWARD ISL. kg 1.53 RAMBUTAN Air VIETNAM kg 8.50 SWEET POTATO Sea NOT DETERMINED EGYPT kg 1.00 0.83 1.04 HONDURAS kg 1.50 ISRAEL kg 1.60 1.25 1.39 ORANGE EGYPT kg 0.92 ISRAEL kg 1.29 RED/WHITE HONDURAS kg 1.25 TAMARILLO Air COLOMBIA kg 7.00 TAMARIND Air THAILAND kg 2.95

TARO Sea COSTA RICA kg 2.50

YAM Sea BRAZIL kg 1.00 GHANA kg 1.30 1.25

Note: according to grade

These prices are based on monthly information from the Market News Service, International Trade Centre UNCTAD/WTO (ITC), Geneva. MNS - International Trade Centre, UNCTAD/WTO (ITC), Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland — T. 41 (22) 730 01 11 / F. 41 (22) 730 09 06

Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite 88 November/December 2015 No. 237 Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite Contenu publié par l’Observatoire des Marchés du CIRAD − Toute reproduction interdite