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The Human Conveyor Belt Broken – Assessing the Collapse of the Human-Smuggling Industry in Libya and the Central Sahel ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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The Human Conveyor Belt Broken – Assessing the Collapse of the Human-Smuggling Industry in Libya and the Central Sahel ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS MARCH 2019 The Human Conveyor Belt Broken – assessing the collapse of the human-smuggling industry in Libya and the central Sahel ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Research for this report was directed by Mark Micallef who co-authored the document with Rupert Horsley and Alexandre Bish, with research assistance from Giacomo Zandonini, Peter Tinti and Jessica Gerken. It also draws on the in-house expertise of Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime Director and Deputy Directors Mark Shaw and Tuesday Reitano and Senior Migration Expert Arezo Malakooti. Experts from the Clingendael Institute, Fransje Molenaar and Floor el Kamouni-Janssen, also provided valuable assistance. A network of 27 eld researchers were critical for the completion of this report. While we thank them for their invaluable contributions, we cannot name them individually for their security. The research for this report was supported by funding under the North of Africa and Sahel and Lake Chad windows of the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa. However, the contents of this document are the sole responsibility of Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime and do not necessarily reect the views of the European Union. Please do not hesitate to contact us. Mark Micallef Senior fellow Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime [email protected] www.globalinitiative.net Contents METHOD NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY LIBYA ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Trends overview: Militias retreat from protection of human smuggling ............................ 1 Focus on Tripolitania ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Focus on the Fezzan .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Focus on Cyrenaica .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 SAHEL .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Niger: Migrant-smuggling industry shrinks and adapts to new normal .............................. 7 Chad: The rise and (potential) fall of gold mines as Sahelian transit hubs ...................... 7 Mali: Migrant ows reduce as peace-enforcement eorts increase insecurity .......... 8 LIBYA MILITIAS RETREAT FROM PROTECTION OF HUMAN SMUGGLING ........................... 9 Number of migrants transiting through Libya decreases as human smuggling becomes clandestine again ......................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Law-enforcement model consolidates despite political and security turmoil in Tripoli in 2018 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14 The role of international sanctions ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Libyan Coast Guard intercepting higher proportion of migrants at sea .............................. 19 Coastal smugglers return to pre-revolution methods ............................................................................................................ 20 Migrants stranded in Libya face abuse and mistreatment ......................................................................................... 23 The ongoing crisis in detention centres is a core policy challenge ................................................... 24 DCIM leadership stabilized and its reform oers an opportunity ............................................................ 27 Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 TRIPOLITANIA ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Zuwara breaks blockade but contains human smugglers ......................................................................................... 30 Status quo in Sabratha holds ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 32 Zawiya and Warshefana remain fractured but stable, with people smuggling under check .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 Kani Battalion takes over Garabulli and disrupts east-Tripoli system .............................................. 35 Bani Walid’s waning business and the sharp shift to ransoming ............................................................... 37 FEZZAN .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39 War, banditry and reduced ows undermine human-smuggling industry in the south-west ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 Migration through Ghat continues at low levels with a political changing of the guard .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43 The great game to secure the Fezzan .................................................................................................................................................................................. 44 CYRENAICA ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Ajdabiya partially regains role as smuggling hub ............................................................................................................................... 48 Kufra Military Zone forms a new border-control body and issues decrees, but will struggle to have an impact ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 50 Some LNA-aligned forces in Kufra are compromised ............................................................................................................... 52 SAHEL NIGER: MIGRANT-SMUGGLING INDUSTRY SHRINKS AND ADAPTS TO NEW NORMAL ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 54 Human smuggling goes clandestine ...................................................................................................................................................................................
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