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Factors Affecting Recent Vegetation Change in North-East Libya

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Factors Affecting Recent Vegetation Change in North-East Libya FACTORS AFFECTING RECENT VEGETATION CHANGE IN NORTH-EAST LIBYA GHADA. M. A. AHWAIDI Ecosystems and Environment Research Centre School of Environment and Life Sciences University of Salford Salford, M5 4WT, UK Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, 19 July 2017 i Contents Table of contents…………………………………………………………………… ... i List of tables………………………………………………………………………….. v List of figures………………………………………………………………………….. vi Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………. ix Declaration…………………………………………………………………………….. x Abstract………………………………………………………………………………… xi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………..… 1 1.1 Introduction to the research……………………………………………… 1 1.2 Research aims and objectives……………………………………………. 4 1.3 Thesis structure………………………………………………………….. 7 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW……………………………………….…... 10 2.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………... 10 2.2 Vegetation cover change in the Mediterranean region…………………... 11 2.3 Factors affecting vegetation change……………………………………... 12 2.3.1 General factors affecting vegetation change…………………………...… 12 2.3.2 Effects of human activity on vegetation change in the Mediterranean region 13 2.3.3 Effect of climate change on vegetation in the Mediterranean region….… 14 2.4 Approaches to monitoring vegetation change……………………………. 17 2.4.1 Ground based measurement of vegetation……………………………….. 18 2.4.1.1 Vegetation cover …………………………………………………………. 18 2.4.1.2 Leaf area index…………………………………………………………… 19 2.4.1.3 Density…………………………………………………………………… 19 2.4.2 Remote sensing of vegetation change……………………………………. 19 2.4.2.1 Spectral response of vegetation…………………………………………… 20 2.4.2.2 Vegetation Indices (VI)…………………………………………………... 22 2.4.2.2.1 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)……………………….. 22 2.4.2.2.2 Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI)………………………………….. 23 2.4.2.2.3 Enhance Vegetation Index (EVI)…………………………………………. 24 2.4.2.3 Image classification………………………………………………………. 25 2.5 Remote sensing of vegetation change in the Mediterranean……………... 26 2.5.1 Remote sensing of vegetation change in Libya…………………………... 30 2.5.2 Remote sensing of vegetation change in Al Jabal Al Akhdar region…….. 34 2.6 Other studies of vegetation change in the region…………………………. 37 2.7 Conclusion …………………..……………………………………………. 38 CHAPTER 3: BACKGROUND OF THE AL JABAL AL AKHDAR REGION… 39 3.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………….. 39 3.2 Location the study area…………………………………………………… 39 3.3 Topography and landforms……………………………………………….. 41 3.3.1 The coastal plain………………………………………………………….. 41 3.3.2 The first rim and terrace…………………………………………………… 41 3.3.3 The second rim and terrace………………………………………………… 41 i 3.3.4 The third rim………………………………………………………………… 42 3.3.5 The south slope of Al Jabal Al Akhdar……………………………………… 42 3.4 The soil of the study area…………………………………………………… 43 3.5 Water resources in the study area……………………………………………. 44 3.6 Vegetation of the Al Jabal Al Akhdar region………………………………. 45 3.7 The population distribution…………………………………………………. 47 3.8 The human activity in the region……………………………………………. 48 3.9 Conclusion………………………………………………………………….. 48 CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES……………………………………. 49 4.1 Overview of research methodology………………………………………… 49 4.2 Approach to assessing vegetation cover change…………………………… 50 4.2.1 Initial image processing……………………………………………………… 52 4.2.1.1 Atmospheric correction…………………………………………………….. 52 4.2.1.1.1 LEDAPS…………………………………………………………………….. 53 4.2.1.1.2 Empirical line correction………………………………………………………. 53 4.3 Calculation of Vegetation Indices……………………………………………. 55 4.4 Image classification…………………………………………………………. 56 4.4.1 Topographic correction………………………………………………………… 56 4.4.2 Image classification…………………………………………………………. 60 4.5 Libyan population data………………………………………………………… 61 4.6 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………. 62 CHAPTER 5: RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE AL JABAL AL AKHDAR………………………………………………………………………… 64 5.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………. 64 5.2 Assessing the climate change in the study area…………………………….. 65 5.2.1 Darnah Station……………………………………………………………… 68 5.2.2 Shahat station……………………………………………………………….. 68 5.2.3 Benina station………………………………………………………………… 69 5.3 Recent temperature change in the study area………………………………. 70 5.3.1 Long term trend of temperature in the stations of the study area (1946- 2003) 70 5.3.1.1 Long term trend of the mean annual temperature in the stations of the 70 Study area (1945- 2003)……………………………………….…………… 5.3.1.2 Long term trend of the mean annual maximum temperature in the stations 73 of the study area (1945- 2003)……………………………………………… 5.3.1.3 Long trends of the mean annual minimum temperature in the stations of 74 The study area (1945- 2003)……………………………………………………. 5.3.2 Short term trends of temperature in two periods (1946-1971) and 76 (1972-2003) in the stations…………………………………………………. 5.3.2.1 Short term trend in mean annual temperature in two periods 76 (1945-1971) and (1972-2003) in the station………………………………… 5.3.2.2 Short term trend in mean annual maximum temperature in two periods 78 (1945-1971) and (1972-2003) in the station………………………………… 5.3.2.3 Short term trend in mean annual minimum temperature in two periods 80 (1945-1971) and (1972-2003) in the station……………………………….. 5.3.3 Summary of temperature trends……………………………………………. 82 ii 5.4 Recent precipitation patterns in the study area……………………………… 83 5.4.1 Long term trends in mean annual precipitation (1945- 2003) in the study 84 area…………………………………………………………………………. 5.4.2 Short term trends in mean annual precipitation in two periods (1945-1971) 86 and (1972-2003) at the station……………………………………………… 5.4.3 Summary of precipitation patterns in the study area……………………….. 91 5.5 Correlation coefficient between long trend of the mean annual 92 Precipitations and the mean annual temperature in the stations (1946-2003).. 5.6 Summary……………………………………………………………………. 92 5.7 Conclusion………………………………………………………………….. 93 CHAPTER 6: VEGETATION INDEX CHANGE DETECTION IN THE STUDY AREA……………………………………………………………………….. 94 6.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………. 94 6.2 Objective one…………………………………………………… 94 6.3 Detection of vegetation cover indices change in the study area…………… 94 6.3.1 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)………………………… 95 6.3.1.1 Long term NDVI dynamics over 42 years (1972 – 2014)…………………… 95 6.3.1.2 Linear regression of NDVI values per pixel……………………………….. 95 6.3.1.3 The NDVI Correlation coefficient image and histogram ………………… 100 6.3.2 Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI)……………………………………. 105 6.3.2.1 Linear regression of SAVI values per pixels……………………………….. 108 6.3.2.2 The SAVI Correlation coefficient image and histogram……..…………… 111 6.3.3 Enhance Vegetation Index (EVI)…………………………………………….. 115 6.3.3.1 Linear regression of EVI values per pixels……………………………….. 115 6.3.3.2 The EVI Correlation coefficient image…………………………………….. 120 6.4 Comparison of the VI changes……………………………………………… 125 6.5 Conclusion………………………………………………………………….. 127 CHAPTER 7: LAND COVER CHANGE IN THE STUDY…………………………. 192 7.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………. 129 7.2 Objective two………………………………………………………………... 129 7.3 Detection of land cover and land use change in the study area………………. 130 7.3.1 Image classification………………………………………………………….. 130 7.3.1.1 Collect the training areas……………………………………………………… 130 7.3.1.2 Generate the signature files……………………………………………………. 132 7.3.1.3 Accuracy assessment of the classification image………………………….. 133 7.4 Assessing Land cover change………………………………………………. 136 7.4.1 The areal extent of land cover change..……………………………………. 139 7.4.2 The magnitude of land cover change……………………………………….. 141 7.5 Conclusion………………………………………………………………….. 144 CHAPTER 8: A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING VEGETATION CHANGE IN THE STUDY AREA ……………… 146 8.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………. 146 8.2 Objective three……………………………………………………………… 147 8.3 Assessing the relationship between vegetation cover change and population 147 iii 8.4 Assessing the relationship between the VI change and land cover change in the study area 151 8.5 Assessing the relationship between land cover change and the population data in the study area…………………………………………………….… 154 8.6 Assessing the influence of climate change on vegetation cover change in the Al Jabal Al Akhdar 156 8.7 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………. 158 CHAPTER 9: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS………………................ 160 9.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………. 160 9.2 Climate change……………………………………………………………. 161 9.3 Vegetation cover change………………………………………………….. 161 9.4 Land cover change………………………………………………………… 162 9.5 Exploring the causes of vegetation change……………………………….. 163 9.6 Conclusions………………………………………………………………. 164 References……………………………………………………………………………… 166 Appendices……………………………………………………………………………….. 183 iv List of tables Table 4.1 Types of sensors and Landsat images that used in the study area…………… 51 Table 4.2 The dates of Landsat images which were downloaded for the study area…... 52 Table 4.3 Methods applied to remove the influence of atmosphere from Landsat Images……………………………………………………………………….. 55 Table 5.1 Main climate stations in north-east Libya …………………………………... 66 Table 5.2 Sub-climate stations in north-east Libya……………………..……………… 66 Table 5.3 The mean annual temperature, Mann-Kendall (M-K) tau and correlation 71 coefficient (R) for the study stations……………………………………….... Table 5.4 The mean annual maximum temperature, Mann-Kendall (M-K) tau and 73 correlation coefficient (R) for the study stations…………………………….. Table 5.5 The mean annual minimum temperature, Mann-Kendall (M-K) tau and 74 correlation coefficient (R) for the study stations…………………………….
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