PRECISION and PURPOSE Airpower in the Libyan Civil War Edited by Karl P. Mueller C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR676 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mueller, Karl P. Precision and purpose : airpower in the Libyan Civil War / Karl P. Mueller [and thirteen others]. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-8330-8793-5 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Libya—History—Civil War, 2011---Aerial operations. 2. Libya—History--Civil War, 2011---Campaigns. 3. Air power—History—21st century. I. Title. DT236.M74 2015 961.205—dc23 2015012120 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: Belgian Air Force F-16 over Ghardabiya Air Base, Libya, on April 29, 2011; courtesy of the Belgian Air Force, photo by Vador. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. 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Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface From March 19 to October 31, 2011, the United States and a coalition of fellow North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies and partner states waged a remarkable air war in Libya. Operation Odyssey Dawn and Operation Unified Protector were designed to protect Libya’s civilian populace under a United Nations mandate, and in conjunction with the country’s new opposition movement, they led to the defeat and removal of the dictatorial regime of Colonel Muammar Qaddafi. The campaign, in which the coalition suffered no casualties and which cost a relatively inexpensive few billion dollars, is now being proffered as a model for future U.S. and NATO expedi- tionary operations. This report, written by a team of U.S. and international experts, examines the origins, planning, execution, and results of the air campaign, with the goal of drawing lessons from it that will help prepare the U.S. Air Force and its allies and partners for future operations in which such a strategy of aerial intervention could be a promising policy option. The research reported here was sponsored by General Philip M. Breedlove, Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force, and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Pro- gram of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Moderniza- tion and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract TA7014-06-C-0001. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ iii Contents Preface .................................................................................................iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................ix Acknowledgments ...................................................................................xi Abbreviations ....................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER ONE Examining the Air Campaign in Libya Karl P. Mueller ....................................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................ 1 Considering the Libyan Air Campaign in Context ................................................ 2 Why the Libyan Air Campaign Is Important ...................................................... 6 What This Book Is (and Is Not) About ............................................................. 7 Study Approach and Overview ....................................................................... 8 CHAPTER TWO Strategic and Political Overview of the Intervention Christopher S. Chivvis ..............11 Introduction ...........................................................................................11 Libya and the Arab Uprisings........................................................................11 The Debate over Intervention ........................................................................14 U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973 ...........................................................17 Operation Odyssey Dawn............................................................................21 Transition to NATO Command ................................................................... 24 Operation Unified Protector ........................................................................ 26 The Relief of Misrata .................................................................................31 Naval Operations ......................................................................................32 Operations Grind On.................................................................................32 Increasing the Diplomatic Pressure ................................................................ 34 Emergence of the Western Front ....................................................................35 The Fall of Tripoli .................................................................................... 38 The Impact on NATO ............................................................................... 40 v vi Precision and Purpose: Airpower in the Libyan Civil War CHAPTER THREE The Libyan Experience Frederic Wehrey ......................................................... 43 Introduction .......................................................................................... 43 Libyan Airpower and Air Defenses: A Hollow and Marginalized Force .......................45 Between Awe and Exasperation: Perceptions of NATO Airpower ............................. 50 Targeting and Coordination with NATO .........................................................61 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 66 CHAPTER FOUR The U.S. Experience: National Strategy and Campaign Support Robert C. Owen ......69 Introduction ...........................................................................................69 Intervention ............................................................................................70 Deployment and Operations ........................................................................ 77 Allies .................................................................................................. 100 Conclusions and Lessons ........................................................................... 102 CHAPTER FIVE The U.S. Experience: Operational Deborah C. Kidwell ..................................... 107 Introduction ......................................................................................... 107 U.S. Military Planning and Considerations ..................................................... 108 Evolving Strategic Guidance ...................................................................... 115 The Coalition Coalesces ............................................................................ 118 Concept of Operations ............................................................................. 119 U.S. Forces Assigned ............................................................................... 121 Operation Unified Protector ....................................................................... 136 Conclusions .......................................................................................... 146 CHAPTER SIX The British Experience: Operation Ellamy Christina Goulter .............................. 153 Introduction ......................................................................................... 153 Intervention and Initial UK Air Operations ..................................................... 154 The Transition to NATO Command ............................................................. 164 Lessons and Conclusions ........................................................................... 175 CHAPTER SEVEN The French Experience: Sarkozy’s War? Camille Grand .................................... 183 Introduction ......................................................................................... 183 Why and How Did France Decide to Act? ...................................................... 184 The French Military Engagement