14 July 2016 

EQUITIES ASEAN F&B Manufacturers CONSUMER STAPLES 

Jakarta visit: part 2 – volume trumps margins ASEAN

 We were in Jakarta to meet with F&B manufacturers Selviana Aripin*, CFA Consumer Analyst, ASEAN  The key takeaway is volume trumps margins The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch [email protected]  We maintain Buy on INDF (TP IDR9,700); Hold on ICBP (TP +65 6658 0610 IDR17,000) and SUPER (TP SGD0.92); and Reduce on URC Permada Darmono* Senior Consumer Analyst, ASEAN (TP PHP160) The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch [email protected] We visited Jakarta at the end of June 2016 and met with a number of consumer-related +65 6658 0613 companies to assess more closely the dynamics currently driving the F&B manufacturer Erwan Rambourg* Global Co-Head of Consumer & Retail Research space. This is the second instalment in a series of reports in which we present our The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited key findings and the read-across for stocks that we cover. [email protected] +852 2996 6572

We spoke with F&B manufacturers in Jakarta * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is We spoke with the management of Mayora Indah (MYOR, IJ, not rated), Tiga Pilar not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Sejahtera (AISA IJ, Not Rated), Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ, not rated), and Japfa Comfeed (JPFA IJ, Not Rated). We believe these companies provide a read-across for Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, Hold, IDR17,350, TP: IDR17,000) and Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ, Buy, IDR7,200, TP: IDR 9,700), and to a lesser extent Super Group (SUPER SP, Hold, IDR0.83, TP: IDR0.92) and Universal Robina Corp (URC PM, Reduce, PHP200, TP: PHP160).

Volume trumps margins, ASP could increase through product mix The key takeaway from our meetings is that between achieving volume growth and protecting margins, food manufacturers are choosing to prioritise volume growth in 2016. Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ, Not Rated), which did not raise prices in 2015, thinks that it is difficult to raise prices without putting its market share at risk. In our report Indonesian Staples: HSBC 2016 ASEAN and India Conference, 29 June 2016, we highlighted that we believe food manufacturers under our coverage are on track to achieve our expected growth in volume and ASP in 2016. Our meetings with Mayora Indah (MYOR, IJ, Not Rated) and Tiga Pilar (AISA IJ, Not Rated) corroborated this view. Similar to Nippon Indosari (ROTI IJ, Not Rated), Mayora and Tiga Pilar talked about phasing out lower-priced SKUs to concentrate on higher-priced SKUs, believing that the market is ready for the transition.

Maintain Buy rating on INDF (TP at IDR9,700); Hold rating on ICBP (TP at IDR17,000) and SUPER (TP at SGD0.92); and Reduce on URC (TP at PHP160). There are no changes in ratings for the companies under our coverage.

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Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at: MCI (P) 094/06/2016 MCI (P) 085/06/2016 MICA (P) 021/01/2016 https://www.research.hsbc.com

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July 201614 EQUITIES

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ASEAN F&B manufacturers comps (pricing as at the close of 13 Jul 2016) Name Bloomberg Ratings Price Target Price EPS growth Market Cap - Dividend P/E P/E P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA Ticker 2015-2018e Consolidated Yield FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

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3Yr CAGR (USDm) FY2016

CONSUMER STAPLES

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN IJ NR IDR3,750 N.A. 29.1% 4,687 1.0% 23.2 23.4 19.1 14.2 14.7 12.9 PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP IJ Hold IDR17,350 IDR17,000 7.4% 7,651 1.5% 33.8 30.6 29.1 22.2 18.5 15.9 PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF IJ Buy IDR7,200 IDR9,700 18.3% 4,768 2.4% 20.7 16.1 13.5 9.4 7.5 6.5 PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA IJ NR IDR1,245 N.A. 32.9% 965 0.9% 14.4 16.7 13.5 6.7 7.7 7.0 PT Mayora Indah Tbk MYOR IJ NR IDR38,200 N.A. 14.9% 2,775 0.9% 22.4 24.8 21.2 11.9 14.0 12.4 PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk AISA IJ NR IDR1,835 N.A. 14.5% 758 0.5% 12.0 15.8 13.6 9.6 10.0 8.4 Super Group SUPER SP Hold SGD0.83 SGD0.92 6.5% 688 2.6% 19.6 17.7 16.6 10.0 8.3 7.6 Universal Robina Corp URC PM Reduce PHP200 PHP160 15.6% 9,476 2.2% 35.2 28.0 26.2 20.3 17.2 16.1 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates for covered stocks

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EQUITIES  CONSUMER STAPLES 14 July 2016 

Takeaways

1. Beverage (hot drinks and soft drinks) and packaged food segments In the beverage segment, similar to Super Group and Universal Robina Corp, Mayora Indah is a player in the ASEAN beverage space. In packaged food products, Tiga Pilar and Mayora Indah compete against Indofood CBP and Indofood Sukses Makmur, in particular savoury snacks, sweet snacks, and breakfast cereals.

Between growing volume and protecting margins, Mayora stressed that its priority is to achieve Between growing volume and volume growth in 2016. Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ, Not Rated), which did not raise prices in 2015, protecting margins... its thinks that it is difficult to raise prices without putting its market share at risk. On the topic of priority is to achieve volume RTD tea, Mayora management thinks that the competitive landscape in the Indonesian soft growth in 2016 drinks space (RTD tea) has stabilized, following a period of intensive competition that saw the entry of well-resourced local and foreign players.

Even without raising their prices, food manufacturers can still expect to grow ASP through tweaking the sales mix. In our report Indonesian Staples: HSBC 2016 ASEAN and India Conference on 29 June 2016, we highlighted that we believe food manufacturers under our coverage are on track to achieve our expected growth in volume and ASP in 2016. Our meetings with Mayora Indah (MYOR, IJ, Not Rated) and Tiga Pilar (AISA IJ, Not Rated) corroborated this view. Similar to Nippon Indosari (ROTI IJ, Not rated). Mayora intends to gradually phase out SKUs that are priced at IDR500 and develop SKUs that are priced between IDR1,000 and IDR1,500. Tiga Pilar is moving away from consumer products that are priced at around IDR500 to those priced at IDR 1,000. Furthermore, Tiga Pilar management thinks that there are potential opportunities to launch more consumer products that are priced starting at close to the IDR2,000-level. This reflects F&B manufacturers’ perception that the packaged food market in Indonesia is ripe for a transition to higher-priced products, which in turn, suggests there is an opportunity to increase ASP through an improved sales mix. Tiga Pilar has taken the opposite strategy with its rice segment, prioritizing ASP instead of volume. To avoid the commoditization trap, Tiga Pilar is growing branded pack rice. In a market where most rice is sold by the litre, Tiga Pilar aims to appeal to the health conscious and meet the food hygiene standards and product transparency requirements of consumers.

2. Poultry segment Charoen Pokphand Indonesian (CPIN) and Japfa Comfeed (JPFA) are players in the poultry segment. Even though CPIN and JPFA do not compete directly with URC, we believe that they provide an interesting read-across, given that all these companies indicate that there is rising appetite for meat-based protein in ASEAN.

One takeaway from meeting management of CPIN and JPFA is that URC would do well to avoid growing its commoditized agro-industrial business too quickly. CPIN and JPFA face overcapacity in the day-old-chick (DOC) segment as a result of years of capex. In spite of government intervention, poultry producers are still nursing some losses. Indeed, CPIN has been trying to grow its processed chicken segment and reduce its dependence on the commoditized feed and DOC segment. However, the capital intensive nature of the processed chicken segment obstructs quick growth.

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Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ, IDR38,200, Not Rated)

We met with the management of Mayora Indah at the end of June 2016. Here are our key takeaways:

 According to management, the competitive environment in the coffee segment in Indonesia is stabilizing after privately owned Wings Corp established a foothold in the Indonesian coffee space with its TOP Coffee brand. According to Euromonitor, TOP Coffee is the seventh most popular brand of coffee with a 2.5% market share in 2015, while Torabika, Mayora Indah’s flagship coffee brand, is the fourth most popular brand with a 4.7% market share. According to Euromonitor, Mayora Indah and Wings are the fourth and fifth largest players, respectively, in the coffee space in Indonesia. The top three players are Nestle, Kapal Api and Sari Incofood, which held market shares of between 9.8% and 32.0% in 2015, according to data from Euromonitor.

 Within the packaged food segment, Mayora Indah controls around 17.1% and 10.4% There may be opportunities for sales growth coming from market shares in the biscuits and snack bars, and confectionary segments, respectively, in a more favourable sales mix Indonesia, according to Euromonitor. In terms of SKU development, Mayora intends to gradually phase out SKUs that are priced at IDR500 and develop SKUs that are priced between IDR1,000 and IDR1,500. This suggests that there may be opportunities for sales growth coming from a more favourable sales mix.  In terms of export demand, strength in exports is driven largely by the Philippines, where Mayora Indah controlled 23.9% of the market share in 2015, according to data from Euromonitor. When venturing overseas, Mayora generally prefers partnering with a local distributor, who then handles administrative and logistical matters. Products that are sold overseas are similar to what are sold in Indonesia and Mayora does not alter the taste of its product to suit the local market.  According to management, revenue growth of 4.6% in 2015 versus 2014 is attributable Mayora intends to maintain its pricing in 2016 as the firm entirely to volume growth, as Mayora did not raise prices in 2015. Mayora management prioritizes market share thinks that it is difficult to raise prices without putting its market share at risk. Incremental defence margin improvement, if any, will come from improving efficiency and increased automation.  Regarding its distributor relationship with Inbisco Niagatama, which distributes Mayora’s products domestically, management notes that Inbisco is responsible for logistical and warehousing matters, as well as bad debt and product rejects (which are less than 0.1% local revenue). Management thinks that Inbisco faces almost no inventory risks given that its product is fast-moving. The pricing structure is decided by Mayora Indah.  Over the past 10 years, the percentage of Mayora Indah’s revenue that is derived from the modern trade channel has increased from 10% to 30%. Given the restrictions on the modern trade channel, such as the rental space and listing fee, management admits that what is controllable is ensuring that Mayora’s products are fast-moving and keeping the range of product SKUs distributed through modern trade channel to a limited few.  Mayora is the third largest player in the ready-to-drink (RTD) tea segment in Indonesia, with a 10.6% market share in 2015, according to Euromonitor. Management thinks that following a period of intensive competition that saw the entry of Orang Tua Group (with Teh Gelas), Wings Corp (with Teh Rio), Suntory Garuda (with Mirai Ocha), and Sapporo Holdings (with Pokka) in the RTD tea space in the last few years, the competitive environment has stabilized. However, management thinks established FMCG players with deep pockets are likely to outlast smaller, less well-resourced players, which are likely to be eventually pushed out of the segment.

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Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (AISA IJ, IDR1,835, Not Rated)

We met with the management of Tiga Pilar at the end of June 2016. Here are our key takeaways:

 The rice milling business is fragmented with a large number of small, traditional players. As Tiga Pilar increases its production of branded pack Tiga Pilar has the capacity to handle 480,000 tonnes of rice per year. Within its rice milling rice, management is guiding division, the company produces either branded pack rice or branded bulk rice that is volume to come down and distributed through either modern or general trade. Tiga Pilar believes that as consumers ASP to go up have greater purchasing power and become more health conscious, consumer rice consumption patterns will change in favour of branded rice that has not undergone a whitening process and has no added fragrances. Branded rice also appeals to customers’ demand for product transparency (by including features such as expiry date and source) and high food hygiene standards. As Tiga Pilar increases its production of branded pack rice, management is guiding volume to come down and ASP to go up.  In terms of Tiga Pilar’s food segment, Tiga Pilar is moving away from consumer products that are priced at around IDR500 to those priced at IDR1,000. Furthermore, management thinks that there are potential opportunities to launch more consumer products that are priced starting at close to the IDR2,000-level. One area of potential growth may come from the structural shift in consumers’ snack preferences from traditional snacks, which according to management’s estimate makes up around 70% of snack consumption in Indonesia, to modern snacks.

 On the evolution of the trade channel, Tiga Pilar distributes its products largely through the general trade channel before entering the modern trade space. According to management, the company’s products are present in over 2.5m outlets across Indonesia. In general, modern trade is not the company’s preferred way of distribution because of the existence of trade terms, longer cash conversion cycle, and pressure to participate in promotional activities. As a result, the modern trade channel is generally a more expensive form of distribution.

 On new product launches, management is targeting the addition of seven new SKUs in terms of basic foods and 17 new SKUs in terms of consumer products in 2016. In terms of its growth priorities, management thinks that the development of branded packaged rice will take priority over other segments in 2016.  Tiga Pilar also wants to add a rice milling facility in Sulawesi where the demand-supply situation appears favourable. When the facility in Sidrap is completed in 2017, it will add another 120,000 tonnes to Tiga Pilar’s rice milling capacity. A typical payback period is around 4-5 years for a rice milling facility and negligible for a new snack machine.

 Overall, the company has not seen a strong recovery in end-market demand and thinks that most rice millers and snack producers are still in a defensive mode.

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ, IDR3,750, Not Rated)

We met with the management of Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN) at the end of June 2016. Here are our key takeaways:

 Management highlights that a major driver of margin in the feed segment is input cost. Management thinks gross margin is likely to remain However in spite of favourable exchange rates and stable raw materials prices so far in under pressure in 2016 2016, management warns a combination of a less than optimal corn harvest and the government’s current ban on the importing of corn by producers of animal feed may pressure margins over the near term. In addition, management thinks that the 2016 gross margin is likely to remain under pressure as a result of the live poultry segment, which is a low-margin business.

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 Management thinks that the government’s intention to increase local corn production is positive for CPIN over the long term because local corn is considered to be of a better quality as a result of the corn being fresher and thus more nutritious. Also, the company can save on some import costs. Furthermore, the fact that local corn purchases are transacted in IDR means that the CPIN is less exposed to currency fluctuations.

 Where there are changes in the exchange rate, typically the price adjustment for feed products typically trails the changes in change rate. Usually, a gradual price adjustment may be implemented, if management observes a persistent shift in the trend over a two- week period. Typically, CPIN operates based on a cost-plus model in the feed segment and targets a gross margin of between 13% and 18%.  CPIN’s day-old chick (DOC) segment has been loss-making due to an oversupply in the market. According to management, because the nature of DOC is such that it is not possible to either stop production immediately or keep excess stock, producers typically need to wait an entire cycle, which lasts between 1.5 to 2 years, for oversupply to work itself out. The issue this time is that producers are unwilling to cull excess stock, above and beyond government-mandated culling, most likely because they fear missing out on a recovery.

 Regarding the live chickens business, besides the issue of unfavourable pricing, CPIN also has to contend with leakage from the supply chain. Live poultry, in general, is typically grown in remote locations where monitoring is hard. Theft of live poultry is a risk. Management estimates that around 10% of the live chickens bred by CPIN are used as inputs in CPIN’s processed food segment.  Management recognises that government regulations allowing only the importing of whole chickens (i.e. the importing of partial chicken or chicken parts is prohibited) protects the domestic industry. Without this rule, it is possible that the Indonesian market may be flooded with chicken parts, especially given that most developed countries consume only chicken breasts and discard other chicken parts, selling them as scraps. Indonesians, by comparison, consume all parts of the chicken, including bones, wings, claws and neck.  Management wants to grow its processed chicken segment until the segment contributes around 20% to CPIN’s revenue. Besides being less price sensitive, the processed chicken segment carries a degree of brand loyalty. However, the segment is capital intensive, which obstructs quick growth. Because the products require the use of refrigeration, CPIN may need to, on some occasions, finance the freezer for use in the traditional trade channel and educate traditional trade players on how to maintain the freezer and the products kept therein.  Free cash flow generation has been negative in recent years, mainly as a result of high capex. According to management, the company’s aggressive capex has been largely due to capacity expansion in the DOC segment, which was undertaken to maintain the company’s market share. Management expects capex in 2016 to slow to around IDR1trn.

 Management commented that CPIN has seen only a marginal improvement in consumers’ CPIN has seen only marginal improvement in spending spending appetite so far in 2016 and does not think there is a full recovery yet. appetite so far in 2016

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Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ, IDR1,245, Not Rated)

We spoke with the management of Japfa Comfeed Indonesia at the beginning of June 2016. Here are our key takeaways:  Japfa Comfeed’s DOC business has been under pressure as a result of oversupply that began in 2014. The oversupply resulted from excessive capacity expansion in response to higher purchasing power. At the same time, government intervention appears to have stabilized market prices.

 Indonesia’s relatively low per capita meat consumption of around 10kg per annum presents an avenue for growth. For reference, each person is estimated to consume around 16 kg per annum in Jakarta and around 38kg in Malaysia, according to management. Over time, the company expects the meat consumption pattern to shift from vegetable-based protein to chicken.  Unlike other Indonesian corporates who generally shun USD bonds, Japfa Comfeed, which has USD199m USD-denominated bonds outstanding, thinks that it is a good idea because the natural hedge because of JPFA’s animal feed business. Management believes that 70% of the responsibility is hedged.

 Management is guiding for 2016 operating profit of IDR2trn and net profit of IDR1trn. Management is guiding for capex of around USD60m in 2016 of which USD40m is meant for maintenance capex.

Valuations and risks

Super Group (SUPER SP, Hold, SGD0.83, TP: SGD0.92) Our TP of SGD0.92 is derived from the discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology. Our DCF assumptions are as follows: a FCF CAGR 2.6%, cost of equity 8.6%, cost of debt 2.1%, and terminal growth 2.5%. Our current TP implies 11% upside to the current share price. We keep our Hold rating because we have yet to see a reason to be positive on the stock. Our DCF- derived TP implies a 19.3x 2016e PE and 9.3x 2016e EV/ EBITDA.

Upside risks:

 Faster-than-expected recovery in Super Group’s key markets  Higher penetration in East Asia  Successful launch of new products  Further decline in commodity prices. Downside risks:

 Unfavourable sales mix  Unfavourable currency movement  Further slowdown  Weak economic growth in Asia.

Universal Robina Corp (URC PM, Reduce, PHP200, TP: PHP160) Our target price of PHP160 is based on DCF with the following key assumptions: FCF CAGR 2016-25e of 10.0%, revenue CAGR 2016-25e of 15.2%, WACC through the forecast period of 7.4-7.5%, Philippine cost of equity of 7.5%, cost of debt of 4.5%, risk free rate of 3.0%, tax rate of 20.0%, terminal growth rate (%) 5.0.

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With 20% downside to our target price, we maintain our Reduce rating as we think that the company’s growth will not meet the expectations implied by the current share price due to its dominance in already mature categories in the Philippines.

Upside risks:

 Outperformance: URC could perform much better than we expect, with higher revenue and earnings growth, which would justify the present valuation.  Major transformative acquisitions: URC has articulated its intention to pursue acquisitions. A major transformative acquisition that enlarges the company’s size materially in a manner that is accretive to shareholders could justify a higher valuation and market cap for the company.  Sustained low raw material prices: URC has benefited from low raw material prices which have led to higher margins. If raw material and commodity prices remain low for a prolonged period of time, the company’s margins may expand by more than we forecast.  New categories dominance: While URC is already very dominant in the categories it competes in, the packaged food industry in the Philippines is still quite fragmented, and if URC is able to rapidly penetrate and dominate other categories, it may generate faster revenue and earnings growth than we anticipate.

 Speedy and satisfactory resolution: The Vietnam investigation obviously creates significant business and financial risks for URC’s operations in Vietnam and perhaps beyond. A speedy and satisfactory resolution of the investigation would remove this uncertainty and overhang.

Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, Hold, IDR17,350, TP: IDR17,000) Our TP of IDR17,000 is based on a DCF methodology. Our key assumptions are: FCF CAGR of 43.8% during 2016-25e (the high CAGR is due to a low base in 2016e), WACC of 9.5%, cost of equity of 9.5%, risk-free rate of 3.0%, tax rate of 25.0% and terminal growth of 5.0%. With 2% implied downside we reiterate our Hold rating

Upside risks:

 Value-accretive acquisitions  Strengthening of the IDR against the USD (where for every 10% appreciation against the USD, it is estimated that ICBP’s PBT would be higher by 2.2%)  Accelerating economic growth which would boost consumption  Faster-than-expected non-noodles division organic growth  Greater-than-expected operational profitability of the beverages division.

Downside risks:

 Escalating operating expenditure due to promotions and wages  Increasing competition  Slowing noodles volume growth due to maturity of market  Value-destroying acquisitions  Weakening IDR against the USD (where for every 10% depreciation against the USD, it is estimated that ICBP’s PBT would be lower by 2.2%).

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Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP, Buy, SGD0.475, TP: SGD0.68) Shishir Singh* Analyst Our target price is based on a target 12-month EV/EBITDA forward multiple of 6.1x, which is 1 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited standard deviation above IFAR’s 5-year mean forward EV to EBITDA. With 43% implied upside [email protected] we reiterate our Buy rating. +852 2822 4292 Downside risks: * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/  Lower spot ASP qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations  Lower-than-expected premium to spot ASP  Lower-than-expected production growth  Stronger-than-expected IDR vs. USD  Higher import levies in the export markets resulting in lower CPO demand and prices  Further dilution of its 73.5% equity stake in Salim Ivomas (SIMP IJ, Not Rated), the main operating subsidiary.

Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ, Buy, IDR7,200, TP: IDR9,700) Our TP of IDR9,700 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach. We value Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, Hold, IDR17,350, TP: IDR17,000) at our HSBC fair value target price, the Bogasari and distribution divisions based on DCF, using a WACC of 9.1%, FCF CAGR of 2.3% during 2016-25e and terminal growth of 5%. We also value IFAR (IFAR SP, Buy, SGD0.475, TP: SGD0.68) at our HSBC target price and China Minzhong (MINZ SP, Not Rated) at market value. Our target price of IDR9,700 implies a 2016e PE of 22x. We believe at a 16x PE, INDF offers compelling value as a proxy for ICBP, which is trading at a 29x PE. With 35% upside to our target price, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.

Downside risks:

 Weakening IDR against major foreign currencies (where for every 10% depreciation against the foreign currencies of its borrowings, it is estimated that INDF’s PBT would be lower by 14.4%, other variables held equal)  Weak production yields from the agribusiness as well as lower-than-expected ASP  Increasing competition for the Bogasari business, leading to a lower-than-expected ASP  The China Minzhong transaction failing to be completed

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Disclosure appendix

Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Selviana Aripin, Permada Darmono, Erwan Rambourg and Shishir Singh

Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating.

From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take six to 12 months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy or a Hold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it is between 5% and 20% below the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Hold or a Reduce; and when it is more than 20% below the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Reduce.

Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage, change in target price or estimates).

Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price.

Prior to this date, HSBC’s rating structure was applied on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stock’s domestic or, as appropriate, regional market established by our strategy team. The target price for a stock represented the value the analyst expected the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon was 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast dividend yield when indicated, had to exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock was expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands were classified as Neutral.

*A stock was classified as volatile if its historical volatility had exceeded 40%, if the stock had been listed for less than 12 months (unless it was in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expected significant volatility. However, stocks which we did not consider volatile may in fact also have behaved in such a way. Historical volatility was defined as the past month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility had to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.

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Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities As of 14 July 2016, the distribution of all independent ratings published by HSBC is as follows: Buy 44% (25% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Hold 41% (25% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Sell 15% (20% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

For the purposes of the distribution above the following mapping structure is used during the transition from the previous to current rating models: under our previous model, Overweight = Buy, Neutral = Hold and Underweight = Sell; under our current model Buy = Buy, Hold = Hold and Reduce = Sell. For rating definitions under both models, please see “Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis” above.

For the distribution of non-independent ratings published by HSBC, please see the disclosure page available at http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/financial-regulation/investment-recommendations-disclosures.

Share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunities Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF.JK) share price Rating & target price history performance IDR Vs HSBC rating history From To Date Analyst N/A Underweight 01 Sep 2013 Permada Darmono Underweight Neutral 01 May 2014 Permada Darmono 8910 Neutral Overweight 03 Aug 2014 Permada Darmono Overweight Hold 25 Mar 2015 Permada Darmono 7910 Hold Buy 04 Aug 2015 Permada Darmono 6910 Buy Hold 10 Mar 2016 Permada Darmono 5910 Hold Buy 29 Mar 2016 Permada Darmono Target price Value Date Analyst 4910 3910 Price 1 5300.00 01 Sep 2013 Permada Darmono Price 2 6000.00 22 Sep 2013 Permada Darmono 2910 Price 3 6500.00 16 Jan 2014 Permada Darmono 1910 Price 4 7750.00 01 May 2014 Permada Darmono Price 5 8250.00 03 Aug 2014 Permada Darmono

Price 6 8200.00 02 Dec 2014 Permada Darmono

Jul-15 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-16 Price 7 8500.00 05 Jan 2015 Permada Darmono Source: HSBC Price 8 8600.00 06 Mar 2015 Permada Darmono Price 9 7850.00 25 Mar 2015 Permada Darmono Price 10 7700.00 01 May 2015 Permada Darmono Price 11 8000.00 04 Aug 2015 Permada Darmono Price 12 8400.00 02 Nov 2015 Permada Darmono Price 13 8000.00 10 Mar 2016 Permada Darmono Price 14 9200.00 29 Mar 2016 Permada Darmono Price 15 9700.00 03 May 2016 Permada Darmono Source: HSBC

11 EQUITIES  CONSUMER STAPLES 14 July 2016 

Indofood CBP (ICBP.JK) share price performance IDR Rating & target price history Vs HSBC rating history From To Date Analyst N/A Underweight 01 Sep 2013 Permada Darmono Underweight Neutral 31 Jul 2014 Permada Darmono 16325 Neutral Underweight 06 Mar 2015 Permada Darmono Underweight Hold 28 Apr 2015 Permada Darmono 14325 Hold Buy 30 Apr 2015 Permada Darmono 12325 Buy Hold 18 Feb 2016 Permada Darmono Target price Value Date Analyst 10325 Price 1 9350.00 01 Sep 2013 Permada Darmono 8325 Price 2 9850.00 16 Jan 2014 Permada Darmono Price 3 10475.00 01 May 2014 Permada Darmono 6325 Price 4 11850.00 31 Jul 2014 Permada Darmono 4325 Price 5 14000.00 06 Mar 2015 Permada Darmono Price 6 15450.00 20 Mar 2015 Permada Darmono

Price 7 15000.00 31 Jul 2015 Permada Darmono

Jul-12 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Price 8 15500.00 30 Oct 2015 Permada Darmono Source: HSBC Price 9 15400.00 18 Feb 2016 Permada Darmono Price 10 16650.00 28 Mar 2016 Permada Darmono Price 11 17000.00 02 May 2016 Permada Darmono Source: HSBC Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR.SI) share price Rating & target price history performance SGD Vs HSBC rating history From To Date Analyst Neutral Underweight 15 Aug 2013 Thilan Wickramasinghe 3 Underweight Neutral 09 Oct 2014 Thilan Wickramasinghe Neutral Overweight 26 Jan 2015 Thilan Wickramasinghe 2.5 Overweight Buy 31 Mar 2015 Thilan Wickramasinghe Buy N/A 12 May 2015 2 N/A Buy 20 Jan 2016 Shishir Singh 1.5 Target price Value Date Analyst Price 1 0.72 15 Aug 2013 Thilan Wickramasinghe 1 Price 2 0.69 18 Sep 2013 Thilan Wickramasinghe 0.5 Price 3 0.76 28 Jan 2014 Thilan Wickramasinghe Price 4 0.81 03 Mar 2014 Thilan Wickramasinghe 0 Price 5 0.93 08 Jun 2014 Thilan Wickramasinghe Price 6 0.86 09 Oct 2014 Thilan Wickramasinghe

Price 7 0.90 19 Oct 2014 Thilan Wickramasinghe

Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Price 8 0.85 26 Jan 2015 Thilan Wickramasinghe Source: HSBC Price 9 0.84 27 Feb 2015 Thilan Wickramasinghe Price 10 0.89 31 Mar 2015 Thilan Wickramasinghe Price 11 N/A 12 May 2015 Price 12 0.56 20 Jan 2016 Shishir Singh Price 13 0.54 26 Feb 2016 Shishir Singh Price 14 0.68 03 May 2016 Shishir Singh Source: HSBC Super Group Ltd (SPGP.SI) share price performance Rating & target price history SGD Vs HSBC rating history From To Date Analyst N/A Buy 08 Apr 2015 Ananita Kusumaningsih 3 Buy Hold 09 Jun 2015 Permada Darmono Target price Value Date Analyst 2.5 Price 1 1.73 08 Apr 2015 Ananita Kusumaningsih 2 Price 2 1.36 09 Jun 2015 Permada Darmono Price 3 0.95 23 Sep 2015 Permada Darmono 1.5 Price 4 0.95 24 Nov 2015 Selviana Aripin Price 5 0.70 21 Jan 2016 Selviana Aripin 1 Price 6 0.75 24 Feb 2016 Selviana Aripin 0.5 Price 7 0.92 14 Mar 2016 Selviana Aripin Source: HSBC

0

Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16

Source: HSBC

12 EQUITIES  CONSUMER STAPLES 14 July 2016 

Universal Robina Corp (URC.PS) share price Rating & target price history performance PHP Vs HSBC rating history From To Date Analyst N/A Reduce 31 Mar 2016 Permada Darmono Target price Value Date Analyst 207 Price 1 160.00 31 Mar 2016 Permada Darmono Source: HSBC 157

107

57

7

Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16

Source: HSBC

To view a list of all the independent fundamental ratings disseminated by HSBC during the preceding 12-month period, please see the disclosure page available at www.research.hsbc.com/A/Disclosures.

HSBC & Analyst disclosures Disclosure checklist

Company Ticker Recent price Price date Disclosure INDOFOOD CBP ICBP.JK 17350.00 13-Jul-2016 2 INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR INDF.JK 7200.00 13-Jul-2016 2 SUPER GROUP LTD SPGP.SI 0.83 13-Jul-2016 7 Source: HSBC

1 HSBC has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months. 2 HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. 3 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this company. 4 As of 30 June 2016 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company. 5 As of 31 May 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services. 6 As of 31 May 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking securities-related services. 7 As of 31 May 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services. 8 A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months. 9 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as detailed below. 10 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this company, as detailed below. 11 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in securities in respect of this company 12 As of 11 July 2016, HSBC beneficially held a net long position of more than 0.5% of this company’s total issued share capital, calculated according to the SSR methodology. 13 As of 11 July 2016, HSBC beneficially held a net short position of more than 0.5% of this company’s total issued share capital, calculated according to the SSR methodology.

13 EQUITIES  CONSUMER STAPLES 14 July 2016 

HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments, both equity and debt (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis.

Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking, sales & trading, and principal trading revenues.

Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance.

Economic sanctions imposed by the EU and OFAC prohibit transacting or dealing in new debt or equity of Russian SSI entities. This report does not constitute advice in relation to any securities issued by Russian SSI entities on or after July 16 2014 and as such, this report should not be construed as an inducement to transact in any sanctioned securities.

For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. In order to find out more about the proprietary models used to produce this report, please contact the authoring analyst.

Additional disclosures 1 This report is dated as at 14 July 2016.

2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 13 July 2016, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report.

3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.

4 You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument, and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument.

Production and distribution disclosures 1 This report was produced and signed off by the author on 14 Jul 2016 11:17 GMT.

2 In order to see when this report was first disseminated please see the disclosure page available at https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/34/96QKCMd

14 EQUITIES  CONSUMER STAPLES 14 July 2016 

Disclaimer

Legal entities as at 1 July 2016 Issuer of report ‘UAE’ HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; ‘HK’ The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Hong The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Kong; ‘TW’ HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; 'CA' HSBC Bank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch; Limited, Singapore Branch HSBC France; ‘DE’ HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; ‘IN’ HSBC Securities and 21 Collyer Quay #03-01 Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; ‘JP’ HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; ‘EG’ HSBC Securities HSBC Building Egypt SAE, Cairo; ‘CN’ HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Singapore 049320 Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Website: www.research.hsbc.com Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; ‘US’ HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC México, SA, Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Bangkok Branch This document has been issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Singapore Branch (“HSBC”) for the information of its institutional customers and/or other persons specified in Sections 274 and 304 of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289)("SFA") and accredited investors and other persons in accordance with the conditions specified in Sections 275 and 305 of the SFA; it is not intended for and should not be distributed to retail customers. 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[518646]

15 

Global Consumer Brands & Retail Research Team

Analyst Europe Agricultural Products Christopher Leung +852 2996 6531 Analyst Consumer Brands & Retail [email protected] Alexandre Falcao +1 212 525 4449 Head of Consumer Brands and Retail Equity Analyst [email protected] Research Lina Yan +852 2822 4344 Antoine Belge +33 1 56 52 43 47 [email protected] Analyst [email protected] Ravi Jain +1 212 525 3442 Charlene Liu +65 6658 0615 [email protected] Analyst [email protected] Anne-Laure Bismuth +44 207 991 6587 Analyst [email protected] Scott Chan +852 3941 7005 Augusto A Ensiki +1 212 525 4915 [email protected] Head of Consumer Retail, Europe [email protected] David McCarthy +44 207 992 1326 [email protected] Analyst Specialist Sales Karen Choi +822 3706 8781 Analyst [email protected] David Harrington +44 20 7991 5389 Andrew Porteous +44 20 7992 4647 [email protected] [email protected] Analyst Permada (Mada) Darmono +65 6658 0613 Jean Gael Tabet +44 20 7991 5342 Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Paul Rossington +44 20 7991 6734 [email protected] Analyst Selviana Aripin +65 6658 0610 Analyst [email protected] Jérôme Samuel +33 1 56 52 44 23 [email protected] Analyst Amit Sachdeva +91 22 2268 1240 Analyst [email protected] Emmanuelle Vigneron +33 1 56 52 43 19 [email protected] Analyst Analyst Kuldeep Gangwar +91 22 3396 0686 Graham Jones +44 20 7992 5347 [email protected] [email protected] Analyst Analyst Chloe Wu +8862 6631 2866 Damian McNeela +44 20 7992 4223 [email protected] [email protected] Associate Analyst - Beverages Eric Chen +8862 6631 2870 Anthony Bucalo +44 20 7991 9815 [email protected] [email protected] Associate Analyst Jenny Chae +822 3706 8774 Joe Thomas +44 20 7992 3618 [email protected] [email protected]

CEEMEA North & Latin America

Consumer Brands & Retail Consumer & Retail Analyst Analyst Bulent Yurdagul +90 212 3764612 Rafael Shin +1 212 525 6707 [email protected] [email protected]

Analyst Analyst Jeanine Womersley +27 21 6741082 Ana C Hernandez +52 55 5721 2745 [email protected] [email protected]

Analyst Analyst Ankur P Agarwal +966 11 299 2103 Henry Nasser +52 55 8551 2422 [email protected] [email protected]

Analyst Food & Beverage Yazeed Al Turki +966 11 299 2260 Global Head of Beverages Research [email protected] Carlos Laboy +1 212 525 6972 [email protected] Asia Analyst Consumer Brands & Retail Andrew Muench +1 212 525 4866 Head of Consumer Brands and Retail Equity [email protected] Research Erwan Rambourg +852 2996 6572 [email protected]