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Indonesia Growth Diagnostics: Strategic Priority to Boost Economic Growth

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Indonesia Growth Diagnostics: Strategic Priority to Boost Economic Growth Indonesia Growth Diagnostics: Strategic Priority to Boost Economic Growth Ministry of National Development Planning/ National Development Planning Agency Directorate for Macroeconomic Planning and Statistical Analysis Indonesia Growth Diagnostics: Strategic Priority to Boost Economic Growth Ministry of National Development Planning/ National Development Planning Agency Directorate for Macroeconomic Planning and Statistical Analysis Indonesia Growth Diagnostics Indonesia Growth Diagnostics: Strategic Priority to Boost Economic Growth Supervisor Eka Chandra Buana, S.E., M.A. Authors Mochammad Firman Hidayat, S.E., M.A. Adhi Nugroho Saputro, M.Sc. Bertha Fania Maula, S.E. Cover Design Hamdan Hasan, S.Kom. Data Visualization Bertha Fania Maula, S.E. Sekar Sanding Kinanthi, S.E. Ministry of National Development Planning/ National Development Planning Agency Directorate for Macroeconomic Planning and Statistical Analysis Jalan Taman Suropati Nomor 2 Jakarta 10310 Tel. (021) 3193 6207 Fax. (021) 3145 374 www.bappenas.go.id ii | Indonesia Growth Diagnostics Indonesia Growth Diagnostics Acknowledgments The Growth Diagnostics study, to identify the most binding constraint of Indonesia’s economic growth, started in early 2018. Previously in December 2017, we invited Prof. Ricardo Hausmann from Harvard University to give a public lecture and workshop regarding Growth Diagnostics in Jakarta with funding from the Australian Government through the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). We would like to thank DFAT for making it possible for us to learn about the tools and mechanics of Growth Diagnostics directly from Prof. Ricardo Hausmann. The whole research activities and writing process of this report is a joint work between Directorate for Macroeconomic Planning and Statistical Analysis Bappenas and PROSPERA. Therefore, we would like to thank PROSPERA for doing this collaborative research from the beginning until the report is published. We received valuable support from PROSPERA for the analytical process of the study, the preparation of final outputs, and the facilitation of holding a discussion and in-depth interviews with related stakeholders. We are indebted by many stakeholders that gave us inputs for preparing the study through a series of Focus Group Discussion (FGD) held in 2018. The cross-directorate discussion in internal Bappenas helped us mapping the initial findings of the study and thus we are thankful for their inputs and supports. We also want to thank private sector representatives who actively participated in our FGDs sharing their perspective on factors that hindering business activities in Indonesia. We benefited from discussion with Deloitte Indonesia, PWC (Pricewaterhouse Coopers), Bukalapak, Tokopedia, PT GE Operations Indonesia, PT Tira Austenite Tbk, HighScope Indonesia, PT Pacto Ltd, Maersk Line, PT Naku Freight Indonesia, and PT Mayora Indah Tbk. Moreover, we also gained perspectives from the smaller scale business through the SME representatives under the supervision of UKM Center FEB UI, IncuBie IPB, PEAC Bromo, and PT Permodalan Nasional Madani (PNM). Besides, we also received valuable inputs on several discussion topics from public and research institutions that contributed in our FGDs, namely Ministry of Trade, Ministry of Industry, Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK), the SMERU Research Institute, Lembaga Demografi FEB UI, and Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Most importantly, we would like to thank experts in economics and related field that we approached for in-depth interviews, invited in FGDs, and asked for the feedback to improve our study: • Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti • Prof. Arief Anshory Yusuf, Ph.D. • Prof. Mari Elka Pangestu, Ph.D. • Faisal H. Basri, S.E., M.A. • Dr. Muhammad Chatib Basri, S.E., M.Ec. • Prof. Dr. Mohamad Ikhsan, S.E., M.A. • William Wallace, Ph.D. • Anton Hermanto Gunawan, S.E., M.A., M.Phil. • Prof. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings • Teguh Dartanto, S.E., M.Ec., Ph.D. • Prof. Budy P. Resosudarmo, Ph.D. • Haryo Aswicahyono, Ph.D. • Dr. Asep Suryahadi • Turro S. Wongkaren, Ph.D. vi | Indonesia Growth Diagnostics Ministry of National Development Planning/National Develoment Planning Agency Table of Contents FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................................................. III FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................................................ IV FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................................................. V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................................................ VI TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................... III LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................................................... IV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1. INDONESIA GROWTH STORY ................................................................................................................................ 3 1.1. DECLINING TREND GROWTH ....................................................................................................................................... 3 1.2. PRODUCTIVITY PROBLEM ............................................................................................................................................ 3 1.3. GROWTH QUESTION .................................................................................................................................................. 4 2. GROWTH DIAGNOSTICS ....................................................................................................................................... 5 3. REGULATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS AS THE MOST BINDING CONSTRAINT ............................................................ 6 3.1. INVESTMENT FINANCING: ISSUE WITH INTERMEDIATION ................................................................................................... 6 3.2. GEOGRAPHY: UNDERLINING THE NEED FOR INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................................................ 7 3.3. HUMAN CAPITAL (FUTURE BINDING CONSTRAINT): SKILLS, BASIC EDUCATION, AND HEALTH IMPROVEMENT IS CRITICAL .............. 7 Skills ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Education ............................................................................................................................................................ 8 Health .................................................................................................................................................................. 9 3.4. INFRASTRUCTURE: LACKING PARTICULARLY FOR CONNECTIVITY ........................................................................................ 10 Connectivity ....................................................................................................................................................... 10 Energy ............................................................................................................................................................... 11 Digital ................................................................................................................................................................ 12 Water and Sanitation ........................................................................................................................................ 12 3.5. MARKET FAILURE: UNREALIZED POTENTIAL .................................................................................................................. 12 3.6. MACRO RISK: LOW TAX RECEIPT LIMITS PUBLIC GOODS DELIVERY ................................................................................... 13 3.7. REGULATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS (THE MOST BINDING CONSTRAINT): BETTER COORDINATED POLICIES TO BOOST GROWTH ...... 13 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................................. 16 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................................................... 19 Indonesia Growth Diagnostics | iii Indonesia Growth Diagnostics List of Figures Figure 1. Binding Constraint Illustration .............................................................................................................................. 1 Figure 2. Diagnostic Tree ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 3. Indonesia Economic Growth ..............................................................................................................................
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