Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) BUY Share Price IDR 2,330 Solid Operating Results 12M Price Target IDR 2,650 (+14%)
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2,330 July 23, 2019 Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) BUY Share Price IDR 2,330 Solid operating results 12m Price Target IDR 2,650 (+14%) Previous Price Target IDR 2,850 Company Description Solid 2Q; maintain BUY albeit with lower TP Mayora Indah manufactures and markets consumer MYOR 2Q19 operating results came above expectation but the bottom food products. line was 5% below, capped by FX loss. We cut FY19E EPS by 6.5% to incorporate this and adjusted our TP to IDR2,650. Our TP remains based on 30x P/E FY19E or +1SD above 3Y mean as we expect catalysts from a stronger earnings CAGR of 14% forecast for 2018-21E vs 2015-18’s 12%. Statistics Risks to our view include FX & raw-material price volatility and global 52w high/low (IDR) 3,140/2,110 economic conditions as 40-50% of its revenue is from exports. 3m avg turnover (USDm) 0.5 Free float (%) 67.0 Margins expanded on lower input costs Issued shares (m) 22,359 Market capitalisation IDR52.1T Consumer Staples 2Q19 revenue grew 12% YoY though it was flat QoQ, relatively in line USD3.7B with expectation. Growth came from volume with rising income in the Major shareholders: mass market and export expansion. GPM expanded 510bps YoY on lower Unita Branindo 32.9% average sugar costs, which declined 6% YoY. As a result, 1H19 EBIT grew Mayora Dhana Utama 26.1% 37%to IDR1.4t and made 42% FY19E vs 1H18’s 37% FY18. NPAT, however, Jogi Hendra Atmadja 25.2% climbed only 10% YoY to IDR807b, capped by IDR104b of FX losses. Price Performance 3,200 160 Slower export sales 3,000 150 Domestic revenue outperformed by growing 16% YoY vs exports’ +6% on 2,800 140 Indonesia 1H19. While exports may remain muted in 3Q due to a high base last 2,600 130 year, as 9M18 export sales +29% YoY, we expect a recovery towards year- 2,400 120 end on the back of seasonality - Christmas and Chinese New Year - and 2,200 110 4Q18’s low base when sales were down 5% YoY. 2,000 100 1,800 90 1,600 80 Volume growth, stable opex Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 We forecast a 12% revenue CAGR for 2018-21E, mainly from volume. Mayora Indah - (LHS, IDR) Mayora Indah / Jakarta Composite Index - (RHS, %) Consistent launches of new products have helped to retain consumer interest. The company also intends to expand its export business to -1M -3M -12M Russia this year. A&P expenses may remain at 10% of revenue as MYOR Absolute (%) (7) (7) (21) continues to emphasise higher-budget conventional media advertising Relative to index (%) (9) (7) (28) such as TV and radio. Faster-than expected conversion to digital Source: FactSet advertising may provide margin upside. FYE Dec (IDR b) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenue 20,817 24,061 27,171 30,260 33,700 EBITDA 3,000 3,268 3,873 4,092 4,484 Core net profit 1,594 1,716 1,950 2,284 2,567 Core EPS (IDR) 71 77 87 102 115 Core EPS growth (%) 17.7 7.6 13.6 17.1 12.4 Net DPS (IDR) 27 31 35 41 46 Core P/E (x) 28.3 34.1 26.7 22.8 20.3 P/BV (x) 6.3 7.0 5.4 4.7 4.1 Net dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 ROAE (%) 24.0 22.1 21.7 22.0 21.5 ROAA (%) 11.5 10.6 10.9 11.9 12.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.9 19.1 14.5 13.7 12.4 Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 30.6 41.1 39.0 30.9 24.2 Consensus net profit - - 1,938 2,257 2,701 MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - 0.6 1.2 (5.0) Janni Asman Isnaputra Iskandar, CFA [email protected] [email protected] (62) 21 8066 8687 (62) 21 8066 8680 THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY PT MAYBANK KIM ENG SECURITIES SEE PAGE 7 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Mayora Indah Fig 1: Results summary 1Q19/ 2Q19/ (in IDR bn) 6M18 6M19 yoy 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 qoq 1Q18 2Q18 Revenues 10,817 12,058 11% 5,415 5,402 6,533 6,711 6,014 6,045 1% 11% 12% Gross profit 2,781 3,618 30% 1,386 1,394 1,717 1,899 1,749 1,869 7% 26% 34% Operating profit 1,007 1,382 37% 605 402 486 1,226 804 578 -28% 33% 44% Pretax profit 1,012 1,092 8% 642 370 496 874 648 444 -32% 1% 20% Net profit 736 807 10% 469 267 364 616 466 341 -27% -1% 28% (%) Gross margin 25.7% 30.0% 25.6% 25.8% 26.3% 28.3% 29.1% 30.9% Operating margin 9.3% 11.5% 11.2% 7.4% 7.4% 18.3% 13.4% 9.6% Pretax margin 9.4% 9.1% 11.9% 6.8% 7.6% 13.0% 10.8% 7.3% Net margin 6.8% 6.7% 8.7% 4.9% 5.6% 9.2% 7.8% 5.6% Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng Fig 2: Estimate changes FY19E FY19E FY20E FY20E (IDR bn) Changes Changes Old New Old New Revenues 27,171 27,171 0.0% 30,260 30,260 0.0% Gross profit 7,379 7,379 0.0% 8,177 8,177 0.0% Ebit 3,323 3,323 0.0% 3,542 3,542 0.0% Ebitda 3,873 3,873 0.0% 4,092 4,092 0.0% Net financing costs -500 -500 0.0% -420 -420 0.0% Pretax income 2,850 2,666 -6.5% 3,122 3,122 0.0% Income tax 712 667 -6.4% 780 780 0.0% Net Profit 2,085 1,950 -6.5% 2,284 2,284 0.0% GPM 27.2% 27.2% 27.0% 27.0% EBIT margin 12.2% 12.2% 11.7% 11.7% Net margin 7.7% 7.2% 7.5% 7.5% Source: Maybank Kim Eng Fig 3: Revenue breakdown… Fig 4: … and EBIT margins 8,000 Export 80% IDR bn 20% Domestic 18% 6,000 YoY domestic 60% YoY export 16% 14% 4,000 40% 12% 2,000 20% 10% 8% 0 0% 6% 4% EBIT margin -2,000 -20% 2% 12M rolling EBIT margin 0% -4,000 -40% 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18 2Q19 4Q19 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng July 23, 2019 2 Mayora Indah Company Proposition Price Drivers Historical share price trend . Major Indonesian confectioner that focuses on biscuits, 4 candy, coffee, nutrition (cereal), wafers and chocolate. 3 4.50 5 200 . Manufactures and sells high equity brand products, such as 2 4.00 180 Roma, Kopiko, and Torabika. Brands are owned by parent 3.50 1 160 company, but MYOR pays no royalty fee. 3.00 140 . Confectionary market has relatively high competition due 2.50 120 to low barriers to entry. MYOR typically employs a 2.00 100 defensive pricing policy in the fight for market share. 1.50 80 1 . Among consumer companies, it has the largest export 1.00 60 business (~40-50% of revenue). Exports should partially Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 361 Degrees - (LHS, HKD) balance the impact of currency volatility. Return on capital is above cost of capital. Expect this to 361 Degrees / Hang Seng Index - (RHS, %) be sustainable on asset light model & continuous growth. Source: Bloomberg, Company, Maybank Kim Eng MYOR’s annual revenue by geography 30,000 IDR bn Export Domestic 1. Slow volume growth, but margins recovered aided by 25,000 cheaper raw material prices. 2. Solid growth for 2016. 20,000 3. EBIT margin compressed on 2Q17. 15,000 4. Double digit sales growth retained for FY17 despite economic slowdown. 10,000 5. EBIT margin compressed over 2Q-3Q17. 5,000 0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Company, Maybank KE Financial Metrics Swing Factors . Revenue to grow 12% CAGR over FY18-21E, mainly on Upside consumption growth. Healthy revenue growth expected from both domestic and . Overseas business expansion that leads to higher revenue export market. growth. The company generally needs to increase ASP by 5-6% to . Cooling off of competition in the coffee business would pass through a 10% increase in raw material costs. lead to better than expected margin performance. EBIT margin may expand by 90bps in 2019E, mainly due to . New business segment addition. lower input costs. Free cash flow to remain positive over FY19-21E. Net gearing to decrease to 31% by FY20E vs. 41% in FY18. Downside . Royalty fee hike. Currently the company pays zero fees CRB CMDT index vs. MYOR’s GPM to its parent group for the brands. 550.0 35.0 Consumer safety issues that negatively affects the (CRB CMDT) CRB CMDT (GPM %) . MYOR GPM 30.0 reputation of the company. 500.0 . Surge in raw material price that leads to higher 25.0 production costs. 450.0 20.0 400.0 15.0 350.0 10.0 300.0 5.0 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Source: Company, Maybank KE [email protected] July 23, 2019 3 Mayora Indah FYE 31 Dec FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Key Metrics P/E (reported) (x) 28.4 35.1 26.7 22.8 20.3 Core P/E (x) 28.3 34.1 26.7 22.8 20.3 P/BV (x) 6.3 7.0 5.4 4.7 4.1 P/NTA (x) 6.3 7.0 5.4 4.7 4.1 Net dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 FCF yield (%) 1.4 nm 0.5 1.9 2.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.9 19.1 14.5 13.7 12.4 EV/EBIT (x) 19.3 22.9 16.9 15.8 14.1 INCOME STATEMENT (IDR b) Revenue 20,816.7 24,060.8 27,171.1 30,260.4 33,699.7 Gross profit 4,975.1 6,396.7 7,379.2 8,177.4 9,060.1 EBITDA 3,000.0 3,267.9 3,872.7 4,091.8 4,483.6 Depreciation (539.4) (549.2) (550.0) (550.0) (550.0) Amortisation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT 2,460.6 2,718.7 3,322.7 3,541.8 3,933.6 Net interest income /(exp) (357.8) (445.8) (500.4) (420.0) (425.0) Associates & JV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exceptionals 3.1 (89.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other pretax income 81.1 198.2 (156.0) 0.0 0.0 Pretax profit 2,186.9 2,381.9 2,666.3 3,121.8 3,508.6 Income tax (555.9) (621.5) (666.6) (780.5) (877.2) Minorities (36.5) (44.1) (49.3) (57.8) (64.9) Reported net profit 1,594.4 1,716.4 1,950.4 2,283.6 2,566.5 Core net profit 1,594.4 1,716.4 1,950.4 2,283.6 2,566.5 BALANCE SHEET (IDR b) Cash & Short Term Investments 2,201.9 2,495.7 1,159.6 1,467.5 1,818.0 Accounts receivable 5,744.1 5,572.9 6,293.3 7,008.8 7,805.4 Inventory 1,825.3 3,351.8 3,755.6 4,190.3 4,675.4 Reinsurance assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Property, Plant & Equip (net) 3,988.8 4,258.3 4,908.3 5,158.3 5,408.3 Intangible assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other assets 1,155.8 1,913.1 2,160.4 2,406.0 2,679.5 Total assets 14,915.8 17,591.7 18,277.1 20,230.9 22,386.5 ST interest bearing debt 2,228.4 2,630.1 2,189.1 2,189.1 2,189.1 Accounts payable 1,717.2