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Mayora Indah Indonesia Company Guide Mayora Indah Version 5 | Bloomberg: MYOR IJ | Reuters: MYOR.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 16 Nov 2017 HOLD Wait for better entry point Last Traded Price ( 15 Nov 2017): Rp2,060 (JCI : 5,972.30) Price Target 12-mth: Rp2,000 (-3% downside) (Prev Rp1,800) Cutting earnings forecast; Hold call unchanged. We cut our net profit forecasts by 9%/7% for FY17F/18F following lower than Analyst expected results in 9M17. 2017 has been a challenging year for Tiesha PUTRI +6221 30034931 [email protected] Andy SIM CFA +65 6682 3718 [email protected] consumer companies in general given the subdued demand environment with low-end consumers cutting spending on non- What’s New basic F&B items. Our recent meeting with management suggests that Mayora Indah (MYOR) has seen its domestic and Cutting FY17F/18F earnings forecast by 9%/7% following weaker than expected 9M17 results export sales improving recently. On the margin side, the company sees some support from lower coffee price. We expect Management targets 10% revenue growth in FY18 earnings growth to pick up in FY18 as household demand improves while soft commodity price trends remain favourable Risk of further consensus’ earnings downgrade looms for MYOR. However, we think the valuation is rich at 30x PE Maintain Hold with a higher TP of Rp2,000 after rolling 18F and we see downside risk to consensus’ earnings forecast over valuation base to 2018 following the weaker than expected results. Maintain Hold. Where we differ: Our FY17F/18F net profit forecasts are 6% Price Relative lower than consensus on lower margin assumptions. Consensus’ expectation on MYOR’s potential margin expansion and earnings growth appears too optimistic. We would wait for a better entry point as risk of further consensus’ earnings downgrade still looms. Potential catalysts: 1) Stronger household consumption in both domestic and export markets, and 2) margin expansion on the Forecasts and Valuation back of lower coffee price. FY Dec (Rp m) 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue 18,350 20,377 22,725 25,345 EBITDA 2,854 2,770 3,129 3,496 Valuation: Pre-tax Profit 1,846 1,803 2,126 2,444 We raise our TP to Rp2,000 as we roll over our valuation base Net Profit 1,355 1,323 1,561 1,796 to 2018. We peg MYOR’s TP to 28x (at five-year historical Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,355 1,323 1,561 1,796 mean PE), in line with peers. Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 11.1 (2.4) 18.0 15.0 EPS (Rp) 60.6 59.2 69.8 80.3 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 60.6 59.2 69.8 80.3 Key Risks to Our View: EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 11 (2) 18 15 Rapid increase in raw material prices would crimp the Diluted EPS (Rp) 60.6 59.2 69.8 80.3 company’s margins if it is unable to pass on the cost increases Net DPS (Rp) 12.0 21.0 21.0 24.1 BV Per Share (Rp) 274 312 361 417 to consumers. PE (X) 34.0 34.8 29.5 25.6 PE Pre Ex. (X) 34.0 34.8 29.5 25.6 At A Glance P/Cash Flow (X) 69.9 23.2 27.4 24.1 Issued Capital (m shrs) 22,359 EV/EBITDA (X) 17.0 17.2 15.1 13.3 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 46,059 / 3,404 Net Div Yield (%) 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.2 Major Shareholders (%) P/Book Value (X) 7.5 6.6 5.7 4.9 Unita Branindo (%) 32.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 ROAE (%) 22.1 19.0 19.4 19.3 Mayora Dhana Utama (%) 26.1 Jogi Hendra Atmadja (%) 25.2 Earnin gs Rev (%): (9) (7) N/A Consensus EPS (Rp): 62.6 74.2 87.4 Free Float (%) 15.7 Other Broker Recs: B: 8 S: 2 H: 5 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.19 ICB Industry : Consumer Goods / Food Producers Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSVI, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P ed: JS / sa:MA, PY, CS Company Guide Mayora Indah WHAT’S NEW Meeting key takeaways and earnings revision Key takeaways from meeting with management Cutting earnings forecast; maintain Hold. We cut our FY17F/8F earnings forecast by 9%/7% as we lower our 9M17 performance tracking lower than target but recovery margin assumption particularly for coffee/cocoa segment momentum continues. Our recent meeting with management after taking into account lower-than-expected 9M17 results. suggests that 9M17 sales is tracking lower than Recall that 9M17 net profit only accounted for 66% of management’s target due to weak export sales in 1H17 and consensus FY17 forecast. weak purchasing power in domestic market, which affected MYOR’s sales particularly in the modern trade channels. We now forecast MYOR’s net profit to decline by 2% y-o-y in Nonetheless, management thinks that the worst is over as FY17F. We expect a brighter earnings outlook in 2018 with MYOR has started to see revenue picking up in its domestic earnings growth of 18% y-o-y on the back of 12% y-o-y and China markets. Average monthly revenue stood at revenue growth and a slight margin expansion as raw Rp1.6tr in 1H17 but has since improved to above Rp1.7tr material price trend remains benign. Nonetheless, we advise after Lebaran. investors to wait for a better entry point as the stock now trades at a lofty valuation of 30x PE FY18F (30% premium to Targeting 10% revenue growth in 2018. MYOR expects to Indofood CBP), while risk of further consensus’ earnings book 10% revenue growth in FY18. On the margin side, downgrade still looms. Our TP is raised to Rp2,000 (from recent decline in coffee price is positive for margins, although Rp1,800 previously) as we roll over our valuation base to there would be some lag time between the coffee price 2018. We maintain our Hold call with 3% potential downside decline and margin improvement as MYOR typically locks in from last closing price. coffee prices for 6-7 months. Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Rpbn) FY Dec 3Q2016 2Q2017 3Q2017 % chg yoy % chg qoq Revenue 4,039 4,411 4,908 21.5 11.3 Cost of Goods Sold (3,035) (3,489) (3,784) 24.7 8.4 Gross Profit 1,005 922 1,125 11.9 22.0 Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (463) (588) (579) 25.2 (1.5) Operating Profit 542 334 545 0.6 63.4 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (21.5) 24.9 64.8 nm 160.4 Associates & JV Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (90.8) (100) (92.4) (1.8) 7.6 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Pre-tax Profit 430 259 518 20.4 100.2 Tax (116) (64.2) (129) 11.5 100.4 Minority Interest (7.7) (7.6) (8.9) (15.8) 17.8 Net Profit 307 187 380 23.9 103.5 Net profit bef Except. 307 187 380 23.9 103.5 EBITDA 928 601 947 2.1 57.7 Margins (%) Gross Margins 24.9 20.9 22.9 Opg Profit Margins 13.4 7.6 11.1 Net Profit Margins 7.6 4.2 7.7 Source of all data: Company, DBSVI, DBS Bank Page 2 Company Guide Mayora Indah Arabica coffee price Robusta coffee price 190 105 180 100 170 95 160 90 150 85 140 80 130 75 120 70 110 65 100 60 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Arabica coffee (cents/lb.) Quarterly avg. price Robusta coffee (cents/lb.) Quarterly avg. price Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBSVI, DBS Bank Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBSVI, DBS Bank Regional peer comparison EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EPS growth EPS growth Company PE 17F (x) PE 18F (x) PB 17F (x) 17F (x) 18F (x) 17F 18F Indonesia - Home and Personal Care (HPC) Unilever Indonesia 51.1 46.2 35.9 32.5 58.3 14% 10% Indonesia - Food and Beverage Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur 25.3 22.6 15.8 13.9 4.5 9% 12% Indofood Sukses Makmur 15.8 15.0 8.1 7.5 2.1 7% 6% Mayora Indah 35.0 29.6 17.3 15.1 5.7 -2% 18% Simple avg. 25.4 22.4 13.7 12.2 4.1 Indonesia - HPC and Staples avg. 31.8 28.4 19.3 17.3 4.1 Regional - F&B Singapore Thai Beverage PCL 22.3 20.1 16.4 14.8 4.1 37% 11% Delfi Ltd 27.8 23.2 13.5 11.6 2.9 -10% 20% Super Group Ltd 30.0 28.0 14.7 13.7 2.4 2% 7% Del Monte Pacific Ltd 17.6 16.6 10.8 10.0 0.8 -56% 6% JUMBO Group Ltd 22.3 20.4 13.0 11.5 4.7 9% 10% Katrina Group Ltd 8.4 7.2 3.6 2.8 2.4 53% 17% BreadTalk Group Ltd 18.1 20.2 5.9 5.6 3.4 113% -10% Thailand Thai Union Group PCL 16.9 15.4 13.4 12.4 1.5 -3% 10% Taokaenoi Food & Marketing PCL 47.5 30.7 30.3 23.5 11.5 -9% 55% Philippines Universal Robina Corp 19.2 16.8 11.8 10.3 3.4 6% 14% Jollibee Foods Corp 41.3 35.4 21.7 18.4 6.5 10% 17% Emperador Inc 15.0 14.7 13.0 12.3 1.9 2% 2% Century Pacific Food Inc 21.0 18.5 14.3 12.4 3.3 2% 13% Malaysia QL Resources Bhd 25.1 25.1 14.3 13.7 2.6 2% 0% MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd 20.9 12.7 14.9 9.7 1.3 11% 65% Oldtown Bhd 19.3 16.4 10.0 8.5 2.7 14% 18% Regional - Staples avg.
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