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Mayora Indah Indonesia Company Guide Mayora Indah Version 3 | Bloomberg: MYOR IJ | Reuters: MYOR.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 24 May 2016 HOLD Unsustainable strong margins Last Traded Price: Rp40,000 (JCI : 4,743.66) Maintain HOLD with higher TP of Rp39,200. Our TP for MYOR Price Target : Rp39,200 (-2% downside) (Prev Rp29,500) rises to Rp39,200 as we bump up our earnings estimates as well as peg our TP to a higher PE multiple, in line with the Potential Catalyst: Lower raw material prices, recovery in consumption regional peers’ average valuation. Our TP is now pegged to Where we differ: Relatively in line with consensus 26x the average of FY16F/17F PE vs 23x previously. We Analyst maintain our HOLD recommendation on MYOR as we believe Edwin Lioe +6221 3003 4936 [email protected] its margins volatility due to movement in commodity prices Andy SIM CFA +65 6682 3718 [email protected] could bring negative surprises to earnings going forward. What’s New FY16F/17F net income up by 17%/19%. Our FY16F/17F net income estimates rise by 17%/19% as we bump up our gross Maintain HOLD with higher TP of Rp39,200 margin assumptions in light of MYOR’s strong 1Q16 showing Earnings estimates raised by 17%/19% for as well as the trend in commodity prices. We increase our FY16F/17F on revised margin estimates gross margin assumptions by 1ppt to 25.7%/25.2% for However, strong margins seen in 1Q16 are not FY16F/17F from 24.7%/24.2% previously. We also increase expected to sustain in subsequent quarters our revenue assumptions for both years by 4% as we had slightly underestimated MYOR’s revenue growth in 1Q16. Price Relative Not expecting strong margins in 1Q16 to be sustainable. Rp Relative Index MYOR posted strong results in 1Q16 as revenue growth 214 39,772.8 194 topped our expectation, while margins were also strong on the 34,772.8 174 back of lower commodity prices. However, given that prices of 154 29,772.8 134 sugar, coffee, and palm oil has been on an upward trend since 24,772.8 114 4Q15, we believe that input costs will begin to increase in 19,772.8 94 14,772.8 74 2Q16 and beyond, thus crimping margins. MYOR’s gross May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 margin in 1Q16 was at 28.5%, while we are assuming FY16F Mayora Indah (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS) margin to be at 25.7%. Note that MYOR does not use forward Forecasts and Valuation contracts to hedge its exposure to the fluctuation in FY Dec (Rp m) 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F commodity prices. Revenue 14,819 16,637 18,336 20,208 EBITDA 2,332 2,486 2,742 2,957 Pre-tax Profit 1,641 1,645 1,860 2,034 Valuation: Net Profit 1,220 1,264 1,431 1,566 We value MYOR at Rp39,200/share, based on the average Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,220 1,264 1,431 1,566 FY16F/FY17F PE of 26x, which is in line with the regional Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 202.3 3.6 13.2 9.4 consumer companies’ average valuation. EPS (Rp) 1,364 1,413 1,600 1,751 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 1,364 1,413 1,600 1,751 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 202 4 13 9 Key Risks to Our View: Diluted EPS (Rp) 1,364 1,413 1,600 1,751 Rapid increase in raw material prices would crimp the Net DPS (Rp) 477 424 480 525 BV Per Share (Rp) 5,677 6,667 7,786 9,012 company’s margins if it is unable to pass on the cost increases PE (X) 29.3 28.3 25.0 22.8 to consumers. PE Pre Ex. (X) 29.3 28.3 25.0 22.8 P/Cash Flow (X) 15.3 28.9 22.7 20.8 At A Glance EV/EBITDA (X) 16.3 15.2 13.6 12.4 Issued Capital (m shrs) 894 Net Div Yield (%) 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 35,774 / 2,632 P/Book Value (X) 7.0 6.0 5.1 4.4 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Major Shareholders (%) ROAE (%) 24.0 21.2 20.5 19.4 Unita Branindo (%) 32.9 5.6 Earnin gs Rev (%): 17 19 N/A BBH Boston S/A GMO (%) Consensus EPS (Rp): 1,407 1,681 2,106 Free Float (%) 61.5 Other Broker Recs: B: 8 S: 0 H: 4 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.06 ICB Industry : Consumer Goods / Food Producers Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES ed:CK / sa:MA Company Guide Mayora Indah WHAT’S NEW Revised FY16F/17F earnings estimates by 17%/19% Strong margins in 1Q16 not expected to sustain in Revised earnings on higher margin estimates. Our subsequent quarters. MYOR enjoyed strong margins in FY16F/17F earnings estimates rise by 17%/19% as we pencil in 1Q16 on the back of lower commodity prices in 2H15. higher gross margins in light of MYOR’s strong performance in However, the price of commodities that MYOR takes as raw 1Q16 as well as the trend in commodity prices. Our gross materials (sugar, coffee and palm oil) have been on an margin assumptions are raised by 1ppt to 25.7%/25.2% in upward trend since 4Q15. Thus, we believe that the strong FY16F/17F from 24.7%/24.2% previously. We also raise our margin in 1Q would not be sustainable going forward. Our revenue estimates by 4% in both years as we think we had full-year gross margin estimate is at 25.7%, while MYOR’s underestimated MYOR’s revenue prospect after the strong 1Q16 gross margin was at 28.5% – implying that we expect growth seen in 1Q16. margins to decrease in the subsequent quarters. Revised earnings estimates for MYOR old FY16F new FY16F chg old FY17F new FY17F chg Revenue 16,026 16,637 4% 17,663 18,336 4% Gross profit 3,959 4,276 8% 4,274 4,621 8% Operating profit 1,716 1,948 14% 1,855 2,146 16% Net profit 1,083 1,264 17% 1,204 1,431 19% Gross margin 24.7% 25.7% 24.2% 25.2% Operating margin 10.7% 11.7% 10.5% 11.7% Net margin 6.8% 7.6% 6.8% 7.8% Source: DBS Vickers’ estimates Indexed commodity prices Given MYOR's inventory lead time of 4-6 months, 130 we look at price trend of commodities since 4Q15: Sugar +26% 120 Arabica coffee +10% CPO +16% Wheat (-)8.5% 110 100 90 80 70 60 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 CPO Arabica coffee Sugar Wheat Source: DBS Vickers’ estimates ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES Page 2 Company Guide Mayora Indah Sales Trend CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Rp bn 20,000 20.0% Earnings Drivers: 18.0% 16.0% Economic growth in Indonesia (and other Asian countries). 15,000 14.0% Mayora’s products are sold in both domestic and international 12.0% markets. In FY15, exports constituted c.49% of sales, with more 10,000 10.0% 8.0% than 90% of exports made to China and Southeast Asian 6.0% 5,000 countries. We think that the health of an economy is generally 4.0% reflected in the consumption of basic necessities and staple 2.0% 0 0.0% foods. Thus, a stronger economy in the countries where 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Mayora’s products are offered would be beneficial to the Total Revenue Revenue Growth (%) (YoY) company, favouring sales volume. Profitability Trend Rp bn 2,203 Volatility in commodity prices. More than 60% of Mayora’s 2,003 COGS is attributable to raw materials, which mostly consist of 1,803 soft commodities such as sugar, coffee, wheat flour, and palm 1,603 oil. The prices of these commodities are naturally volatile and 1,403 1,203 Mayora does not enter into futures contracts. Therefore, a 1,003 sudden spike in the prices of these commodities could adversely 803 hurt the company’s margins, as it would not raise ASP hastily in 603 order to protect market share. Evident in 2011 and 2014, gross 403 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F margins dropped by more than 5ppts as raw material prices Operating EBIT Pre tax Profit Net Profit spiked up. Margins Trend 14.0% Competition in the coffee and confectionery market. The 12.0% company has two product segments: (1) Food processing, and 10.0% (2) Coffee/Cacao. In terms of value share, Mayora is among the 8.0% top three in most of its product categories, thus proving its 6.0% strong foothold in the Indonesian food and beverage market. 4.0% However, we note that due to lack of product differentiation 2.0% and tight competition, consumer demand for the products has 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F higher price elasticity. Mayora has a priority to protect/gain Operating Margin % Net Income Margin % market share and is able to tolerate short-term volatility in margins. Hence, as Mayora gains larger market share, it will be USD/IDR exchange rate 16,000 easier to raise (adjust) its selling prices. 14,000 Weakness of rupiah against the US dollar.
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