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Mayora Indah BUY Sector: Consumer Staples (Overweight) Rating Momentum*

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Mayora Indah BUY Sector: Consumer Staples (Overweight) Rating Momentum* Alpha 2015 Asiamoney's 2014 Institutional Asiamoney’s Southeast Asia 2013 Finance Asia's Investors Highest Corporate flash 2013 2014 Best Best Domestic Best Research Best Domestic Research Call Equity House Equity House Ranked Local FMCG Sector Equity House House 27 May 2015 Mayora Indah BUY Sector: Consumer Staples (Overweight) Rating momentum*: Michael W. Setjoadi Price:IDR26,750–TP:IDR32,500 (Unchanged) E-mail: [email protected] TP/consensus: 102%; TP momentum*: Phone: +6221 250 5081 Ext. 3613 JCI: 5,253 Still sweet Exhibit 1. Company information Market cap (IDRtn/USDbn) : 23.9/1.9 . April sales volumes recovered on disbursement of cash incentives: 3M avg.daily t.o.(IDRbn/USDmn) : 1.4/0.1 Based on our recent visit with management, April sales appear to have Bloomberg code : MYOR IJ already recovered to IDR1.4tn, from the previous quarter’s average of Source: Bloomberg, Bahana IDR1.2tn/month. The sales recovery is mainly due to higher consumers’ Exhibit 2. Shareholders information Unita Branindo(%) : 32.9 spending in April as the government has reinitiated the start of providing Dimensional Fund Advisors (%) : 1.4 IDR9.82tn direct cash incentives (BLT) to 16.4mn low-income earners Free float (%) : 65.7 amounting to IDR600k/household. Source: Bloomberg, Bahana Exhibit 3. Key forecasts and valuations . Lebaran festivities should further boost top line: Usually Indonesians Year to 31 Dec 2013 2014 2015F 2016F deliver parcels (exhibit 8) to colleagues, families, or friends during Lebaran Revenue (IDRbn) 12,018 14,169 14,963 17,551 festivities. These parcels often contain biscuits and confectionaries. As a EBIT (IDRbn) 1,305 891 1,614 1,755 result, based on historical seasonality due to Lebaran, MYOR’s sales typically Net profit (IDRbn) 997 404 944 1,062 Bahana/cns. (%) - - 119 100 rise in 2Q, accounting for some 30% of total full-year revenue (exhibit 10). EPS* (IDR) 1,115 451 1,055 1,188 . El Niño and higher oil prices should normalize MYOR’s margins: The EPS growth (%) 36.6 (59.5) 133.8 12.5 EPS momentum - - Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s findings suggest that all 8 of the surveyed EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 21.4 12.9 11.8 international climate models indicate further warming of the central Pacific PER* (x) 24.0 59.3 25.3 22.5 Ocean until March 2016. This could result in drought and drive up most of FCF yield (%) 2.6 (4.8) 6.4 3.5 MYOR’s raw materials prices (i.e. sugar, coffee, wheat and CPO). We expect BVPS* (IDR) 4,353 4,585 5,450 6,420 higher raw materials costs to be reflected in MYOR’s performance, starting in PBV* (x) 6.5 6.2 5.2 4.4 Yield (%) 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 1Q16. However, following a very strong gross-profit margin (GPM) in 1Q15 of ROAA (%) 11.1 4.0 8.8 9.0 27% (1Q14: 20.1%) on the back of favorable raw materials costs, we are ROAE (%) 29.3 10.3 21.5 20.5 raising our 2015F GPM to a more normalized level of 23.3% (from 20.7%). EBIT margin (%) 13.8 9.1 13.9 12.9 This is even after taking into account recent higher oil prices (+40% from Net gearing (%) 46.3 90.8 59.4 49.8 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates February lows), which have increased MYOR’s packaging costs by 10% from Note: Pricing as of close on 27 May 2015 the oil-price lows. In 2016, we assume a GPM of 22.5% as we build in raw Exhibit 4. Relative share price performance (%) (%) materials headwinds ahead of a likely global economic recovery. Considering 30 27.5 30 these factors, we raise our 2015-16F earnings by 2-13% (exhibit 5). 25 25 20 20 15 12.8 15 Outlook & Recommendation: Maintain BUY and TP of IDR32,500 9.3 10 10 At this stage, most of the good news related to our earnings upgrades (exhibit 5 3.4 5 0 0 5) have been reflected in MYOR’s ytd market outperformance of 28% (exhibit (5) (5) 4). This, coupled with minor changes to our 2016F earnings as investors will (10) (10) (15) (12.6) (15) (14.9) likely focus on 2016 earnings as we head into mid-year, has us maintaining our (20) (20) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 12-month target price of IDR32,500, translating to a 2015F PE of 31x (formerly MYOR IJ relative to JCI Source: Bloomberg, Bahana 35x PER). Our target PER is set at a 30% premium to the sector ex-UNVR (exhibit 9); our TP also implies a 27x 2016F PER. With 21% upside potential to our unchanged target price, we reaffirm our BUY. Risks to our call: El Niño to cause much higher commodities prices than our expectation and weaker IDR. Exhibit 5. Earnings revisions Old New Change (%) 2014 2015F 2016F 2014 2015F 2016F 2014 2015F 2016F Revenue (IDRb) 14,169 16,312 18,883 14,169 14,963 17,551 - (8.3) (7.0) Gross Profit (IDRb) 2,535 3,378 4,237 2,535 3,489 3,956 - 3.3 (6.6) Gross margin (%) 17.9 20.7 22.4 17.9 23.3 22.5 Opt profit (IDRb) 891 1,485 1,755 891 1,614 1,755 - 8.7 (0.0) Opt margin (%) 6.3 9.1 9.3 6.3 10.8 10.0 Net profit (IDRb) 404 832 1,041 404 944 1,062 - 13.4 2.0 Net margin (%) 2.8 5.1 5.5 2.8 6.3 6.1 EPS (IDR) 451 930 1,164 451 1,055 1,188 - 13.4 2.0 Source: Company, Bahana forecasts Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see the important disclaimer information on the back of this report *Based on consensus’ recent changes ↑ (up), ↓ (down), ↔ (unchanged) Alpha 2015 Asiamoney's 2014 Institutional Southeast Asia 2013 Finance Asia's Investors Highest 2014 Best Best Domestic Best Research Research Call Equity House Equity House Ranked Local 27 May 2015 FMCG Sector House Mayora Indah Year to 31 December 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F PROFIT & LOSS (IDRbn) Sales 10,511 12,018 14,169 14,963 17,551 Double-digit top-line growth in Gross profit 2,346 2,922 2,535 3,489 3,956 2016F on higher GDP growth EBITDA 1,422 1,663 1,291 2,077 2,261 outlook Depreciation 265 358 399 463 506 EBIT 1,157 1,305 891 1,614 1,755 Net interest income/(expense) (205) (232) (326) (320) (321) Forex gain/(losses) 32 308 (19) (15) 10 Other income/(expense) (24) (25) (17) (40) (50) Pre-tax profit 960 1,356 530 1,239 1,394 Taxes (215) (343) (120) (280) (315) Minority interest (15) (17) (6) (14) (16) Extraordinary gain/(losses) - - - - - Net profit 730 997 404 944 1,062 BALANCE SHEET (IDRbn) Cash and equivalents 1,340 1,860 713 1,015 1,250 S-T investments - - - - - Trade receivables 2,051 2,813 3,081 3,408 3,998 Inventories 1,499 1,456 1,967 1,886 2,235 Fixed assets 2,858 3,114 3,585 3,722 3,816 Other assets 555 465 946 1,021 1,190 Total assets 8,303 9,710 10,291 11,050 12,488 Interest bearing liabilities 3,337 3,623 4,353 3,848 4,049 Lower debt on… Trade payables 853 1,179 955 1,370 1,624 Other liabilities 1,045 1,015 883 959 1,074 Total liabilities 5,235 5,816 6,191 6,177 6,747 Minority interest 76 86 92 106 122 Shareholders' equity 2,992 3,808 4,008 4,767 5,619 CASH FLOW (IDRbn) EBIT 1,157 1,305 891 1,614 1,755 Depreciation 265 358 399 463 506 Working capital 160 (449) (1,531) 142 (789) Other operating items 78 57 (115) 1 1 Operating cash flow 1,659 1,271 (355) 2,220 1,473 … less capex in 2015-16F as Net capital expenditure (1,085) (614) (870) (600) (600) Free cash flow 574 657 (1,225) 1,620 873 new factory locations have Equity raised/(bought) 0 64 - - - been secured Net Borrowings 529 286 730 (505) 201 Other financing (89) (485) (653) (813) (838) Net cash flow 1,014 521 (1,148) 302 235 Cash flow at beginning 325 1,340 1,860 713 1,015 Cash flow at end 1,340 1,860 713 1,015 1,250 RATIOS ROAE (%) 27.3 29.3 10.3 21.5 20.5 ROAA (%) 9.8 11.1 4.0 8.8 9.0 Gross margin (%) 22.3 24.3 17.9 23.3 22.5 Higher-than-expected margin EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 13.8 9.1 13.9 12.9 recovery in MYOR’s coffee EBIT margin (%) 11.0 10.9 6.3 10.8 10.0 division on the drop in coffee Net margin (%) 6.9 8.3 2.8 6.3 6.1 price (-23% y-y) Payout ratio (%) 13.7 17.7 51.0 20.0 20.0 Current ratio (x) 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 Interest coverage (x) 5.6 5.6 2.7 5.0 5.5 Net gearing (%) 66.8 46.3 90.8 59.4 49.8 Debts to assets (%) 63.0 59.9 60.2 55.9 54.0 Debtor turnover (days) 38 47 43 43 43 Creditor turnover (days) 70 84 82 82 82 Inventory turnover (days) 66 58 60 60 60 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS Oil Price (USD/’000 barrels) 111.7 108.7 57.3 65.0 75.0 Coffee prices likely bottomed in CPO Price (USD/ton) 1,009 851 825 690 700 1Q15 with higher prices on Coffee Price (IDR/pound) 14,695 12,346 18,410 16,500 17,000 increased likelihood of El Niño Source: Company, Bahana estimates Michael W.
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