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Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions (Volume 1 of 4) Report No: 07/2009

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Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions (Volume 1 of 4) Report No: 07/2009 E-Flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions (Volume 1 of 4) Report No: 07/2009 J.M. King, et al. December 2009 1 E-Flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report DOCUMENT DETAILS PROJECT Environment protection and sustainable management of the Okavango River Basin: Preliminary Environmental Flows Assessment TITLE: Scenario Report: Ecological and social predictions VOLUME: Volume 1 of 4 DATE: December 2009 LEAD AUTHORS: J.M. King, C. A. Brown. REPORT NO.: 07/2009 PROJECT NO: UNTS/RAF/010/GEF FORMAT: MSWord and PDF. CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS: A.R. Joubert, J. Barnes, H. Beuster, P. Wolski. THE TEAM Project Managers Colin Christian Dominic Mazvimavi Chaminda Rajapakse Barbara Curtis Joseph Mbaiwa Nkobi Moleele Celeste Espach Gagoitseope Mmopelwa Geofrey Khwarae Aune-Lea Hatutale Belda Mosepele Mathews Katjimune Keta Mosepele Angola assisted by Penehafo Piotr Wolski Manual Quintino (Team Shidute Leader and OBSC Andre Mostert EFA Process member) Shishani Nakanwe Management Carlos Andrade Cynthia Ortmann Jackie King Helder André de Andrade Mark Paxton Cate Brown e Sousa Kevin Roberts Hans Beuster Amândio Gomes Ben van de Waal Jon Barnes Filomena Livramento Dorothy Wamunyima Alison Joubert Paulo Emilio Mendes assisted by Mark Rountree Gabriel Luis Miguel Ndinomwaameni Nashipili Miguel Morais Okavango Basin Mario João Pereira Botswana Steering Committee Rute Saraiva Casper Bonyongo (Team Tracy Molefi-Mbui Carmen Santos Leader) Laura Namene Pete Hancock Namibia Lapologang Magole Shirley Bethune (Team Wellington Masamba Leader) Hilary Masundire 2 E-Flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report List of reports in report series Report 01/2009: Project Initiation Report Report 02/2009: Process Report Report 03/2009: Guidelines for data collection, analysis and scenario creation Report 04/2009: Delineation Report Report 05/2009: Hydrology Report: Data and models Report 06/2009: Scenario Report: Hydrology (2 volumes) Report 07/2009: Scenario Report: Ecological and social predictions (4 volumes) Report 08/2009: Final Report Other deliverables: DSS Software Process Management Team PowerPoint Presentations Citation No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without full acknowledgement of its source This document should be cited as: King, J.M. and Brown, C.A. 2009. Scenario Report (ecological and social) Volume 1 of 4. Report 07-2009 EPSMO/BIOKAVANGO Okavango Basin Environmental Flows Assessment Project, OKACOM, Maun, Botswana. 110 pp. 3 E-Flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Acknowledgements Many thanks for logistical support to: • Corinne Spadaro of FAO) • Ros Townsend, Karl Reinecke and Rembu Magoba of Southern Waters 4 E-Flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Executive Summary The Okavango River Basin Commission, OKACOM, initiated a project titled the Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of the Okavango River Basin (EPSMO). This was approved by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), to be executed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The standard UNDP process is a Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis followed by a Strategic Action Programme of joint management to address threats to the basin’s linked land and water systems. Because of the pristine nature of the Okavango River, this approach was modified to include an Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA). To complete the EFA, EPSMO collaborated with the BIOKAVANGO Project at the Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre of the University of Botswana, in 2008 to conduct a basin-wide EFA for the Okavango River system. This is report number 7 (Volume 1) in the report series for the EFA. It details the three water- resource development scenarios chosen for the project; the sites along the system; and the 70 indicators chosen to describe change. It then describes the predicted hydrological change at each site under each scenario, and the response of the river under seven main groups of biophysical indicators: channel geomorphology, water quality, vegetation, aquatic invertebrates, fish, birds and wildlife. These river changes are then interpreted as impacts to users of the river, using 12 indicators in four main groups: household incomes, wellbeing, macro-economics and ecological services. It concludes with a discussion of important aspects of the scenarios. 5 E-Flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 14 1.1. Project background ........................................................................................... 14 1.2. Objectives of the EF assessment ..................................................................... 14 1.3. Recap of process and earlier reports ................................................................ 15 1.3.1 Report 01/2009: Project Initiation Report ......................................................... 15 1.3.2 Report 02/2009: Process Report ..................................................................... 15 1.3.3 Report 03/2009: Guidelines for data collection, analysis and scenario creation .......................................................................................................................... 15 1.3.4 Report 04/2009: Delineation Report ................................................................ 15 1.3.5 Report 05/2009: Hydrology Report: Data and models ..................................... 15 1.3.6 Report 06/2009: Scenario Report: Hydrology .................................................. 16 1.3.7 Report 07/2009: Scenario Report: Ecological and social predictions .............. 16 1.3.8 Report 08/2009: Final Report ........................................................................... 16 1.4. The scenarios ................................................................................................... 16 1.5. Limitations ......................................................................................................... 16 1.6. Presentation of the results ................................................................................ 16 1.6.1 Rivers and delta ................................................................................................ 16 1.6.2 Societal wellbeing ............................................................................................. 16 1.7. Economic value ................................................................................................ 17 1.8. Layout of the report ........................................................................................... 18 2. The EF sites/reaches and IUAs ........................................................................ 19 2.1. The location of the ecological sites and links with IUAs ................................... 19 2.2. Biophysical sites ............................................................................................... 21 2.2.1 Site 1: Cuebe River at Capico, ANGOLA ......................................................... 21 2.2.2 Site 2: Cubango River at Mucundi, ANGOLA ................................................... 22 2.2.3 Site 3: Cuito River at Cuito Cuanavale, ANGOLA ............................................ 23 2.2.4 Site 4: Okavango River at Kapako, NAMIBIA ................................................... 24 2.2.5 Site 5: Okavango River at Popa Falls, NAMIBIA .............................................. 25 2.3. Site 6: Okavango River at the Panhandle, BOTSWANA .................................. 26 2.4. Site 7: Okavango Delta at Xaxanaka, BOTSWANA ......................................... 28 2.5. Site 8: Boteti River, BOTSWANA ..................................................................... 30 2.6. Social IUAs ....................................................................................................... 31 2.7. Indicators .......................................................................................................... 34 2.7.1 The nature and purpose of indicators ............................................................... 34 2.7.2 Biophysical indicators ....................................................................................... 34 2.7.3 Social indicators ................................................................................................ 35 3. Water-use Scenarios ........................................................................................ 37 3.1. Summary of the water-resource developments/abstractions that formed part of each water-use scenario ..................................................................................................... 37 3.2. Hydrological data generated for the scenarios ................................................. 40 3.3. The ecologically-relevant summary statistics for the river sites (Sites 1-6) ...... 41 3.4. Summary statistics for Site 7: Xaxanaka .......................................................... 44 6 E-Flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report 3.5. Summary statistics for Site 8: Boteti ................................................................. 45 3.6. Process follow after the generation of ecological summary data ...................... 47 4. Biophysical results: Disciplines ......................................................................... 48 4.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................
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