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Daqin Railway Co. Ltd.: Three Debates to Address Market

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Daqin Railway Co. Ltd.: Three Debates to Address Market Daqin Railway Co. Ltd. | July 29, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH July 29, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Edward H Xu, CFA Daqin Railway Co. Ltd. [email protected] +852 2239-1521 Watson Lau Three Debates To Address Market [email protected] +852 2239-1523 Victoria Wong, CFA Concerns; LT Beneficiary of Railway [email protected] +852 2239-7817 Reform Daqin Railway Co. Ltd. ( 601006.SS, 601006 CH ) Industry View Stock Rating Price Target Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure / China In-Line Overweight Rmb13.33 Stock Rating Overweight Industry View In-Line Price target Rmb13.33 Despite market concerns about macro slowdown, coal demand Up/downside to price target (%) 32 weakness and competition risks, we view DQR as a highly defensive Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2015) Rmb10.12 52-Week Range Rmb15.15-7.01 stock that is undervalued. More importantly, we view it as a theme Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 14,867 play on China’s railway industry reform. Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb150,452 EV, curr (mn) Rmb129,487 What's Changed? From: To: Avg daily trading value (mn) Rmb1,575 Daqin Railway Co. Ltd. Fiscal Year Ending 12/14 12/15e 12/16e 12/17e Price Target Rmb13.82 Rmb13.33 ModelWare EPS (Rmb) 0.95 1.00 1.08 1.13 Prior ModelWare EPS 1.06 1.25 1.30 1.27 (Rmb) Key market debates: To address various market concerns about the stock, we Consensus EPS (Rmb)§ 1.00 1.09 1.12 1.15 are introducing three debates: 1) Has the market priced in the competition Revenue, net (Rmb 53,971 51,338 53,707 55,205 risks from the new railway lines? (We think yes); 2) How significant are the mn) EBITDA (Rmb mn) 21,033 20,753 21,641 22,610 risks from the UHV power lines under construction? (We think the risks are ModelWare net inc 14,194 14,857 16,078 16,756 minor); and 3) Will there still be pricing upside after recent hikes? (We think (Rmb mn) yes). P/E 11.1 10.1 9.4 9.0 P/BV 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 Theme play on railway reform: While this has been on the cards for a long RNOA (%) 20.9 20.3 21.0 21.1 ROE (%) 18.4 17.7 17.6 16.9 time, we remain confident that China will ultimately restructure the railway EV/EBITDA 6.5 6.0 5.5 4.9 industry, which suffers from poor services, and low profitability and returns. Div yld (%) 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.6 We think potential SOE reforms would help improve management efficiency FCF yld ratio (%) 8.4 8.6 9.1 9.9 Leverage (EOP) (%) (25.0) (28.9) (32.3) (35.9) and incentives, while an increase in securitization would imply M&A Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework § = Consensus data is provided by Thomson Reuters Estimates opportunities for the three listed railway names. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates 1H15 preview: Despite an 8.5% YoY decline in coal throughput on the Daqin Line, we expect revenues to increase 4.6% YoY to Rmb27.6bn, thanks to the tariff hike implemented in Feb-15. Following the 5% YoY increase in profits in 1Q15, we expect 2Q15 profit to remain flat YoY due to weaker traffic performance. As result, we expect 1H15 profit to increase 3% YoY to Rmb7,377m. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with Lower PT to Rmb13.33: We cut our DCF-based PT by 4%, based on 20%/17% companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, cuts to 2015-16 earnings estimates led by 17%/16% lower traffic assumptions. investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan We are also introducing 2017 net profit at Rmb16.8bn, implying a CAGR of 6% Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan over 2014-17. Our estimates are 9%, 6% and 4% below consensus for 2015- Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their 17 as we are factoring in weaker-than-expected traffic performance in 1H15. investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, Dividend remains attractive: The stock offers a 5.7% 2016 dividend yield refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this based on the current price. This is attractive, especially given the prospect of report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered w ith FINRA, may further rate cuts. While we are projecting a 50% dividend payout for 2015-17, not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications w ith a subject company, public appearances and we see significant upside led by sustainable abundant free cash flows (9.7% trading securities held by a research analyst account. 1 Daqin Railway Co. Ltd. | July 29, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH FCF yield) that add to the strong cash balance. Moreover, the stock is trading at only 8.8x 2016 P/E and 5.0x EV/EBITDA, significantly below global peers' average levels of 15.4x and 8.3x. Key downside risks: 1) Market risk led by liquidity or shift in investor sentiment; 2) sustained macro weakness in domestic economy; and 3) other exogenous events. 2 Daqin Railway Co. Ltd. | July 29, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH Investment Conclusion Despite the 4% cut to our DCF-based price target due to lower traffic and earnings assumptions, we maintain our OW rating given 40% upside potential from the current price level. We think the decline in coal volume could be a cyclical rather than a secular trend. In particular, we are introducing three debates to address major market concerns on the stock. More importantly, we continue to see potential opportunities from China's railway industry reform and view DQR as a major beneficiary of this theme. Investment Debates Debate 1. Has the market priced in the competition risks from the new railway lines? Market view: Uncertainties remain high regarding the future outlook for Daqin's traffic volumes. Competition could come from several new railway lines (e.g. Zhangtang, Zhunshuo, and Zhongnan (Wari)) under construction. Our view: We think the current share price has factored in the traffic diversion risk, as it is implying 13% (or 60 million tons) less traffic volume than our base case assumption. Our rationale: 1) Among the various new railway projects under construction, we think just two new lines could pose diversion risks to Daqin - the Zhangji Line and Dazhun Line (Exhibit 8), which are both connecting to Inner Mongolia (Jining / Ulanqab and Zhungeer). They could compete with Daqin's two feeder lines - Jingbao and Dazhun, which contributed 73.75m (-9% YoY) and 74.11m (+14.6% YoY) tons of coal throughput to Daqin Line in 2014. However, we are not concerned with the risks from other new lines such as Menghua Line and Zhongnan Line due to Daqin's strong cost advantage and low overlap in the hinterland. 2) Going forward, we expect limited traffic diversion risk as traffic from Dazhun Line could normalize in 2H15 after the launch of Zhunchi Line in Jul-14. While further traffic diversion may continue after Zhangji Line is extended to Caofeidian / Tangshan, the unit cost could remain at Rmb0.18-0.2/ton-km, significantly higher than Rmb0.135/ton-km on Daqin Line. 3) We believe the -8.5% YoY traffic decline on Daqin Line in 1H15 was due to both macro weakness and traffic diversions. As overall demand recovers when macro conditions stabilize, we expect increasing volumes from non-Inner Mongolia areas (e.g., Shanxi and Sha'anxi) to make up the shortfall. We think this is possible because Daqin Line could have turned away traffic from these areas due to insufficient capacity in previous years. Where we could be wrong: 1) More serious traffic diversion led by low prices on some new lines. However, we think this is unlikely given the high construction cost of the new lines; 2) Sustained macro weakness could dampen the overall traffic outlook. Debate 2. How significant are the risks from the UHV power lines under construction? Market view: There will be high risks to railway traffic led by China's roll-out of the new grid system (e.g., UHV power lines) for cleaner and more efficient power transmission. Our view: While this remains a valid concern for the coal transportation industry, we see limited company specific risk to Daqin. Our rationale: 1) China's first UHV (ultra high voltage) power line was built in 2006 to transmit power from Southeast Shanxi (Changzhi) via Henan (Nanyang) to Hubei (Jingmen). The past decade has seen a significant increase in UHV power lines from 0km to 12,153km, with capacity increased to 110,200 MW as of 2014. The goal is to reach a total length of 64,000km by 2020. We estimate that total coal throughput transported through conventional modes (e.g. railways, highways and water) was reduced by about 133m tons (or 6%) in 2014 as a 3 Daqin Railway Co. Ltd. | July 29, 2015 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH result. Yet, China coal throughput by railways still managed to increase at a 9% CAGR (2006-2014). 2) Going forward, China may push forward to build more UHV power lines, based on the target transmission capacity of 82GW from 2015 onwards, equivalent to 130m tons of standard coal, we estimate. However, given the high cost associated with UHV power transmission, the Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute estimates the optimal distance is below 1,800km (Exhibit 1), implying sustained cost advantages for the long- haul conventional mode of “rail + water”.
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