The Role of Storm Prediction Center Products in Decision Making Leading up to Severe Weather Events

THE ROLE OF STORM PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS IN DECISION MAKING LEADING UP TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS

Sarah Stough NOAA/University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

Elizabeth Leitman and Jeffrey Peters NOAA/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

James Correia Jr. CIMMS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

ABSTRACT

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma issues tornado and severe thunderstorm watches and other forecast products for organized severe weather over the contiguous United States to ultimately protect the lives and property of the American people. First-order users of SPC services, which are primarily available on the World Wide Web, include Emergency managers, National Weather Service Forecast Office and television meteorologists. These first order users then utilize SPC information in conjunction with their own operations to increase public awareness of hazardous weather events. Because these largely different groups communicate directly with the public, it is important that SPC forecasters can provide the most effective products possible. In order to accomplish this, several representatives from the three aforementioned groups in the central Oklahoma region were surveyed to learn about their reception, interpretation, usage, and thoughts on Convective Outlooks, Mesoscale Convective Discussions (MCD), Watches and Watch Status Messages, Public Weather Outlooks, and experimental enhanced thunder forecasts; and the impact these products have on their respective operations. Preliminary findings suggest that each group generally uses the same products, but the specific information that each uses and disseminates varies widely. For instance, National Weather Service forecasters refer to the discussion element of convective products most frequently, while emergency managers and TV meteorologists tend to favor graphical aspects in comparison. This is also demonstrated by emergency managers’ use of the watch graphic for situational comprehension, while TV meteorologists employ it for broadcasting purposes even though, the watch product, commonly thought of as one of the SPC’s most important services, was the third most-used product, ranking far behind the Convective Outlooks and MCD products. The users showed that they used probability and timing information from the products and stated that more uncertainty information would be helpful. These findings beg further study of a larger, more geographically diverse set of survey participants to determine how to better meet the array of needs from a variety of primary users. These results will serve as a guide for a national survey that will be conducted in 2012. ______

1. INTRODUCTION National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Storm Prediction Operating out of Norman, Center’s (SPC) primary responsibility is Oklahoma as part of the National to release a suite of severe weather Weather Service (NWS) and the forecast and watch products for the

1 protection of life and property SPC generated forecasts can be (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC). Published categorized by temporal as well as areal on the World Wide Web, these forecasts characteristics. Those products issued are issued and available for as far as furthest in advance are referred to as eight days in advance. However, the Convective Outlooks, and are released forecast products are tiered such that as a multiple times per day as a scheduled weather event draws closer, forecast product on a nationwide scale. There is a precision increases while the size of the separate forecast for each of Day 1, Day area of consideration decreases. Though 2, and Day 3, which includes a graphical the forecasts may be accessed by anyone interpretation as well as a text via the SPC webpage, most products discussion. While the discussion were designed to provide technical provides a technical explanation of the decision support to specific user groups. forces driving a potential severe weather Primary users of Storm Prediction event, the graphics include a categorical Center information include emergency outline of risk expected for an area for managers, television forecasters, as well the day, which is designated either as NWS forecasters. These individuals slight, moderate, and high; the play key societal roles of efficiently probability of severe weather occurring relaying hazardous weather information within the risk for Day 1, 2, and 3 to the public through a broad variety of (Figure 1a-d). The Day 1 (Figure 1b) outlets. As such, it is important that they understand the products available to them, and that they can efficiently utilize those products. The purpose of this study is to gain an idea of how these groups receive, interpret, and employ each form of weather information they receive from the SPC. In the study of the communication and interpretation of warnings, Shumacker et al. asserted that “Understanding the flow of warning information among decision makers and Fig. 1a: Day 1 Convective Outlook with categorical outlines (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC). the public, and how warnings are interpreted, are key first steps toward maximizing the effectiveness of these warnings” (SCHUMACHER et al. 2010). The parallel may be made that understanding how decision makers and first-order users interpret hazardous weather information from the SPC is vital to maximizing its usefulness, an important goal for ultimately achieving better public awareness.

Fig. 1b: Day 1 Convective Outlook with example 2. BACKGROUND of probabilistic outlines for tornado threat (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC).

2 tornadoes or high wind associated with a particular severe weather event. However, unlike the Outlook product, it is not meant to serve the entire country, but only the area covered by the aforementioned moderate or high risk outline. In addition to releasing forecasts for up to days ahead of time, the SPC also issues products meant to provide Fig. 1c: Day 2 Convective Outlook with example information concerning the severe of categorical outline (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC). weather potential in the near future for a

particular area. Mesoscale Convective Discussions (MCD), named for their smaller regional extent as well as the technical nature of communication surrounding it, are released to provide information about whether conditions are favorable for potential severe weather, and are often the precursors to the issuance of a watch. The text discussions are accompanied by a Fig. 1d: Day 2 Convective Outlook with example graphic that regularly depicts the of complete probabilistic outline for total severe potential threat area, interacting weather threat (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC). environmental forcing mechanisms,

instability measures, as well as surface outlook breaks down the area severe weather threat (i.e. tornado, wind, or conditions. While MCDs typically signal hail). In addition, the SPC also issues a the issuance of a watch within the next single Outlook for Days 4 through 8, one to three hours, they are also released which includes a graphical probability to give a brief summary of the line for each day on one map as well as a convective nature of the environment combined discussion. along with an explanation as to why Another Outlook product is the conditions may not necessitate a watch. Experimental Enhanced Thunder An example of an MCD graphic may be Outlook, which is issued in time blocks seen in Figure 2. of four and eight hours. It is a Mentioned briefly above in relation to nationwide product that indicates the MCDs, many consider the watch to be probability of thunder to occur in an the SPC’s premier product. Another area, outlined by 10 percent, 40 percent, short- term forecast tool issued at least or 70 percent contours. Unlike the one hour before an event, it may be Convective Outlook, however, there is classified as either a severe thunderstorm no text discussion provided. watch or as a tornado watch, depending Designed to be a non-technical upon the environmental conditions. An supplement to the Day 1 Outlook, the example of a tornado watch is captured Public Weather Outlook serves to alert in Figure 3. Narrower than any of the the public to greater probabilities of outlook areas in scope, watches typically

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Fig. 2: Mesoscale Convective Discussion Fig. 3: Tornado watch delineated by polygon graphic detailing meteorological storm as well as county fill-in environment (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC). (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC). cover from 20,000 to 40,000 square different role in communicating with the miles and cover a window of six to public. These considerations must be seven hours. As it is issued for a variety taken with respect to forecast product of severe situations, the watch product design. also contains a probability chart showing Emergency managers are the potential for specific hazards responsible for mitigating the tolls of expected within the graphic areal disaster on society from a variety of outline. Largely acting as an alert to the fronts, including societal, technological, public to pay attention to evolving and environmental (Lindell et al.). With weather conditions, and written in the environment being one of the most plainer text as a result, it is also meant to natural, unavoidable causes of loss of provide emergency managers and life and property, weather plays is a forecasters with lead time to prepare for large factor in the concerns of operations and the arrival of severe emergency managers on a nearly daily weather. While MCDs provide an update basis. Though not often responsible for to the environment, the watch is the final directly communicating with the public, public product that the SPC issues to these individuals do pass information to signal confidence that conditions will be potentially hazardous weather to first favorable for organized severe weather responders such as fire fighters and for a particular region. It is updated police to promote readiness immediately periodically by Status Message to following a severe event. redesignate the severe weather threat Television forecasters relay area contained within a Watch (Novy et information over one of the largest al.). communication channels, both audibly SPC forecasters have constructed and visually. In a survey to determine these products over time for the forecast sources and use by the public, consumption of the aforementioned Lazo et al. found that over 70% of primary user group of emergency respondents received a forecast from managers, television forecasters, and local TV at least once a day (Lazo et al., NWS forecasters. Though lumped 2009). In addition to generating their together into this overall assemblage, own weather information for broadcast, each faction represents an extremely the nature of their profession requires different type of profession, as well as a TV forecasters to condense large

4 amounts of detailed technical 3.1 Data Collection Instrument information into clear, concise, digestible statements. Failure to do so To gain information on how the may hinder their ability to reach the respondents employ the products, an largest possible audience. interview format was chosen as opposed NWS forecasters operate in a to a paper survey in order to heighten the significantly different manner than TV response rate. A predesigned interview forecasters. The weather information form was employed covering a selection they create and the weather warnings for of topics in 20 questions. The interviews severe weather events that they issue are were conducted in a closed conference released directly via the internet and room with the interviewer, respondent, web, but usually matriculates to the and and one to two secondary public through a variety of partners. In interviewer/transcribers. During the this way, NWS forecaster operations run interviews, a digital voice recorder was the most parallel to SPC operations of employed for the purpose of additional the three groups. complete data collection for later As shown above, each forecast in reference. the collection of products available from The survey form itself was the SPC serves a different purpose and is created using mostly open-ended constructed with a variety of knowledge questions, which may be viewed in communication objectives in mind. Appendix A. The motivation for this Additionally, the SPC possesses a design came as a result of the fact that diverse consumer group in terms of responses to open-ended questions can professional goals and associated offer increased insight otherwise information requirements. As such, it is unavailable with a closed-question important for SPC forecasters to construction. The difficultly that comes recognize how their products are with this enhanced information set is that actually used once released along with responses are frequently varied and non- how their forecast applications vary by standard, the repair to which will be consumer group. To accomplish this, a discussed later (Fink, 2009). Because the selection of members from each of the survey required respondents to recall groups was interviewed on a set of pre- specific detail about their usage of selected products. This was done to several products, the form was sent to determine, in part, which products they them via email in advance to grant time are familiar with, how they employ for private recollection and preparation. several pre-selected products, how these Additionally, printed examples of all products can affect their operations, as forecast products were provided for well as what outlets they depend on most reference at the time of the interview. for the communication of weather information. The responses given were 3.2 Survey Sample then analyzed for trends and discrepancies associated with forecast This study analyzes the responses product use. of a target group of SPC users comprised of emergency managers, TV forecasters, 3. DATA AND METHODS and NWS forecasters. The sample size for this study was small, set three

5 individuals from each group for a total Analysis of the collected data of nine interviewees. Also, each of the began with brief notes taken during the respondents represented the central interview process. The next step Oklahoma region, largely narrowing the included making transcriptions of the diversity of the study participants and audio recordings of the interviews. Not potential range of insight and opinion. only did this process provide a more This study is purposefully small to allow detailed concrete data pool, but it also for in-depth examination of a number of significantly increased data familiarity first-order users and how they utilize by immersion. Despite the length of SPC products. These results will help these interviews, which spanned from 30 shape a future nationwide survey of first- minutes to an hour and a half, general order users and the general public. trend indications and points of interest could already be detected at this stage. 3.3 Analysis Methods Because of the extreme qualitative nature of this data, standard The survey itself was meant to scientific analysis methods did not extensively cover respondent use and typically apply. Instead, conclusions impressions of a particular set of were formed using comparisons, products, including the MCD, Watch, relationships, and direct common Convective Outlook, Status Message, statements, with only a few scoring Public Weather Outlook, and Enhanced mechanisms and ranking techniques Thunder Outlook, all of which are (Fink, 2009). Also, open-ended previously defined. Desired information questions created a large variety of included perception of usefulness of the different responses in several cases. In products and their features, information these qualitative situations, credence was avenues, as well as general opinions on given to the fact that such large aspects of SPC forecasts. Questions discrepancies existed among only small covering these topics were broken into response overlap. sections of “Storm Prediction Center Some open-ended questions with Convective Weather Products,” “Storm a multitude of different responses Prediction Center Convective Weather involved some aspect of quantitative Products and Your Operations,” “Social data. For questions such as this Media,” “Public Weather Outlook,” and involving some ranking aspect, a scaling “Suggestions.” For most cases, analysis method was applied. Since not everyone by topic, such as operational ranked the same items or ranked items information, was assisted by the survey by the same scale, as a closed set of section divisions. When analyzing items was not provided, all ranks given individual products, which often had to be scaled over the entire set of appeared as a part of multiple sections, it listed items from all nine interviews. The was simple to then organize product items that any individual did not list analysis by survey section. Lastly, for received a rank of zero, while the highest analyzing data by profession, the data listed item received the top rank, or rank needed only to be divided by complete representing the total number of items. surveys. Where sensible, data was Then, the lowest ranked item received a viewed both by blind to as well as score of one, while all ranked items in relative to the type of respondent. between were scaled between one and

6 the highest number accordingly. In this way, all items could be ranked relative to One of the first topics discussed each other, and their rankings could be during the interviews was general averaged over the entire set to get an product use. When asked which products overall rank. were employed, respondents listed any Further, some open questions that came to mind, sometimes with the concerning greatest use of an item use of the printed examples or from required scoring mechanisms to get a notes they had taken prior to the true sense of the overall answer to the meeting. All products (Figure 4a), and question. In this case, any items directly observed after the scoring method mentioned were given two points, while discussed in Section 3.3 was applied in items recalled following prompts or Figure 4b. from other questions were awarded one From the first figure, it appears point. Items not mentioned or not used that many products are tied in terms of received zero points. In this way, points amount of use between individual could be tallied over nine users and products, with the Convective Outlook, totals could be ordered to get a better MCD, and Watch close together at the idea of most use overall. In addition, top of the list. Upon inspection when this method was applied, products following scoring, it may be seen instead were also considered without any type of that the Convective Outlook and MCD scoring. are tied for primary use while the Watch comes in third place with a significant 4. DATA ANALYSIS AND separation in score. Meanwhile, Watches DISCUSSION OF RESULTS were listed in third and Status Messages, an associated product feature, are shown 4.1 Data Analysis to be fifth most-used. When observing

Products Used 2 2 9 3 Convective Outlooks Mesoscale Discussions 3 Watches Forecast Tools 4 Status Messages 9 Enhanced Thunder Outlook Public Weather Outlook 5 Storm Reports Website Overview Severe Thunderstorm Events 5 8

Fig. 4a: Products used as listed by the respondents.

7 Total Product Use

Convective Outlooks

4 Mesoscale Discussions 4 18 4 Watches

4 Forecast Tools

6 Status Messages

Storm Reports 7 18 Website Overview

Severe Thunderstorm 10 Events Enhanced Thunder 13 Outlook Public Weather Outlook

Fig. 4b Chart denoting total scored product use. Numbers represent the total score applied to the product. user trends from response to this individuals and the Public Weather question, it is most notable that Outlook by three, the Enhanced Thunder emergency managers use the least Outlook was not ranked by any amount of products of the three individual, and the Public Weather professions (Table 1). Outlook was the lowest ranked product. Next, individuals were requested This signifies that in some cases, though to rank the products in terms of most products were cited as being used, not all use. This was asked in the form of an were then considered to be useful. open-ended question, the ramifications Many of the next questions of the of which were that many products were survey dealt specifically with the usage listed, not everyone gave the same of the Convective Outlook, MCD, and products, and because not all ranked lists Watch products, which are considered to were the same size, the rankings be the main convective forecast themselves were given on different products. First, respondents were asked scales. The procedure given in Section what information in each product they 3.3 for this situation was applied to this found to be most useful. While as many data set, the results of which may be as six to eight different aspects arose for seen in Table 1. Once again, the each product, four common themes Convective Outlooks ranked highest, threaded through each: textual with MCDs in second and the Watches discussion, graphical elements, in third. Status Messages, which are probability information, as well as some associated with watches, were farther form of timing information. In the down the list. Also, though the Enhanced Convective Outlook and Watch, these Thunder Outlook was listed by four four aspects are readily apparent, with

8 timing information being integrated into professional group as well. The group the text discussion. In the Mesoscale that tended to be the most rounded in Convective Discussion, timing and terms of product element use was that of probability information are slightly less the emergency management sector. TV evident, but both are included in the forecasters also possessed roughly wording in terms of whether a Watch equally distributed preferences, except issuance is likely or unlikely, and for timing element use in the clear typically include a timeline both for minority. The group with the strongest severe weather initiation and Watch tendencies was that of the NWS issuance. Out of the four elements, the forecasters, who preferred text discussion proved to be the most popular, with NWS forecasters taking 2 TV Usage the lead in use out of the three groups 6 Usefulness of Product Elements

Timing 6 Text Information Discussion, (Any), 8 18

5 Probability Information, 12 Graphical Text Discussion Graphic Element Probability Timing Information (Any) Information, 11 EM Usage 3 Fig. 5: Numbers represent the sum of each 4 individual’s use of three products; Outlooks, MCDs, Watches. The total number would therefore be out of 27.

(Figure 5). The next most popular 3 elements were those of graphics and probabilities. Graphics were chosen by emergency managers and TV 5 meteorologists equally, while TV Text Discussion Graphic Element Probability Timing Information (Any) forecasters were shown to be the NWS Usage heaviest users of probability 3 information. Timing information was the least used in general, but the most evenly distributed between groups (Figure 6). Though neither the timing nor 8 probability element was at the top of the 3 list of helpful features, the fact that they were listed as helpful signifies that individuals are using this information to 1 become more aware and prepared, Text Discussion Graphic Element Probability Timing Information (Any) advancing a more weather-ready society. Fig. 6: All three groups’ usages of products are given here. As part of the analysis, specific attention Purple denotes the text discussion, red denotes the graphical information, yellow denotes probability information, and was given to the preferences of each green denotes timing information.

9 discussions by and large over all other In addition to learning how elements found in the three products. products affect operations, it was also Meanwhile, for this group, timing and asked how long it takes to generally act probability information ranked second in a hazardous weather emergency. most desired, while only one forecaster While the definition of “hazardous uses the graphical information from one weather emergency” generally varied product. Breakdown of all of the above between groups, response times were not information may be found in Figure as diverse. To the TV forecasters, an 6.The second set of questions covering emergency action means going into live, individual products was about how the interruptive broadcast mode, while the products affect operations, or NWS forecaster will go into warning specifically how the groups use them. As mode, or a state of operations where the could be expected, there was a wide suite of hazardous weather warnings variety of uses for each. Of the three may be issued. The emergency manager, products, MCDs had the narrowest range however, typically does not act until of utilizations, with nine functions. after a disaster, but readies for such an Between how it is used as a product and event far in advance. Despite the variety how its size plays a role in operations, of explanations for the meaning of the Watch had the most different uses at emergency operations, all but one a total of 14. However, there was some respondent said that it would be possible use overlap between products. As seen to commence such actions within in Table 2, all three products were used minutes. Four respondents, including all to signal alerts to partners. Five more three emergency managers, said it would uses were common to a combination of take only a day to prepare their agency two products. On an individual level, and partners. In total, the responses most use the Convective Outlook, MCD, ranged in scale from instant action to a and Watch products for staffing, alerts to day’s worth of preparation. partners, and for the purpose of thought The step of learning about speed confirmation. When viewed with respect of readiness for severe weather is to profession, it became evident that all associated closely with the topic of groups had a fair variety of uses across issuance time preference. Not all products. However, emergency surprisingly, though many were pleased managers have the fewest number of with the current times, six of the nine utilizations, with at least two individuals stated simply that the latest information, using products the same way. TV even with unscheduled release, would meteorologists had the most uses always be appreciated or preferable. between products, followed by NWS Meanwhile, others suggested having forecasters in close second. However, more MCDs for more frequent updates. NWS forecasters had the most Another aspect of the survey consistency in usage, with all three included questions concerning channels individuals from the group finding of information. For methods of receiving commonality across four different SPC information, the website was cited employments of the products. All in all, by everyone, with AWIPS, NWS Chat, there was no strong differentiation in and iPhone applications being the next type of use, or effect on operations, most-uses. Nine sources in all were between groups for the three products. given, shown in Table 3. When asked

10 how any weather information, SPC Requests for forecaster hand analysis related or otherwise, was received or maps, less uncertainty information, less disseminated, a total of 19 sources or model comparison, more experimental outlets were given. Twitter and products, separate outlooks for instances Facebook were tied at the top of the list when two waves of events are forecasted with eight individual responses, each. to occur within the Day 1 time frame, NWS Chat, phone alerts, and email came and quality control for the Local Storm in second or third with four or three Reports page were among other individual users, respectively. Out of the suggestions. three groups, the NWS forecasters used the largest variety of tools for 4.2 Discussion of results communication and information collection, but the least amount of After viewing a range of aspects sources for SPC information at two. On from the collected data set, assorted the other hand, emergency managers trends and interesting features came to used six different methods for getting light, both for the entire sample of SPC outputs, representing the group who participants as well as for each used the most sources. individual group. When asked what kinds of A significant focus is placed information was generally dispersed or upon those products that rank in the top sought, 20 different items were few spots of frequency of use, which mentioned in total. Of these, Watches prompted the question as to what came in first with six individual individuals generally seek in a product responses, while spotter reports and as they are considering it for use. When warnings came in second place at four. analyzing the responses to the question As many as 16 different kinds of of what each individual deemed useful in information resulted from only a single the Convective Outlook, Mesoscale respondent’s answer. Discussion, and Watch, four distinct At the end of the survey were elements emerged, the text discussion two questions concerning website and was found to be most important, as product suggestions. For the website, previously discussed. This is not, only one item occurred twice, appearing however, to say that the discussion as a request for an area to show only the should be most focused on in future latest released products or most relevant issuances of any of these products at the information at any given time. Other expense of other aspects. With reference suggestions included having the option to the text discussion, one individual for having a white background for stated, “We don’t have a lot of time to graphical products, having a filter for read that sort of level of detail…that’s Local Storm Reports, and displaying text why we kind of rely on pictures,” discussions in lower case lettering. For indicating that despite what the statistics the general product suggestions, three show, all elements of the products are individuals requested a simpler important. vocabulary with fewer acronyms and Determining which product less use of jargon, while appeals for aspects these consumers deemed useful more graphics and unscheduled outlooks was helpful in understanding the roles were each made by two individuals. they play within operations for each

11 group. On the whole, the three main it becomes more difficult to create and convective products were used to alert update forecasts while broadcasting, partners and/or first responders, plan making outside technical text assistance staffing, and to confirm forecast more valuable, yet actual broadcast is thoughts. When analyzed by product, the main objective of a TV however, more idiosyncrasies are visible meteorologist. A similar trend was also in terms of the Watch, aside from simply noted with emergency managers. The a lower ranking of usefulness. While the group cited notification to make alerts to Convective Outlook and Mesoscale outside partners as the largest way in Convective Discussion most affect how which products could affect operations, staffing is planned, the contacting of yet the timing and probabilistic outside individuals, and forecast information they use to do this fell at a confirmation, the Watch did not have tie to the third place in the list of helpful any major outstanding impacts on elements. Meanwhile, the graphical operations, prompting the question of product elements were most helpful, yet whether it may be outdated. In total, corresponded to the third largest usage there were 14 different ways that the for operational readiness. Again, this Watch is used, and the largest number of may be because emergency managers individuals supporting any single usage gain the most for their understanding was three. from graphical means of When the usages were analyzed communication, yet their most important by profession, several other noticeable function is to alert others of impending factors appeared, beginning with TV events. NWS forecasters did not display meteorologists. The most useful element similar behavior, but their relative was reported to be the text discussion, product ranking shows in a more distinct followed by the probability information sense the nonlinearity of the relationship and graphics. Though they consider the of product ranking between groups. largest effects of SPC products to be on These results show both that not all broadcasting, which includes “when consumers utilized all products, nor in watches get issued…showing (them) on the same way. Also, even when a group the air,” or specifically relaying graphics found a particular product aspect to be to the public, TV meteorologists do not more useful than another, it did not consider graphical information to be necessarily mean that that aspect would among the most effective elements. have the largest impact on operations. Rather, graphics fall in third place after In addition to analysis of the the text discussion and probability most-mentioned products, it was also information. Then, planning of staffing important to question which major and forecast confirmation, associated convective products were not cited as with textual and probabilistic being heavily used or very helpful. information, came in second and third Among these products was the Public place after broadcasting objectives, but Weather Outlook. The PWO, as a non- corresponds with the first and second technical product, is geared specifically most helpful elements of text discussion for public dissemination and and probability information. This is comprehension. Of the three groups, TV perhaps because of the fact that once meteorologists and emergency managers severe weather begins to affect an area, might be the only people to distribute

12 that information. All individuals had 5. CONCLUSION heard of it, but most use it only secondarily, as half stated that they have One of the most notable other sources for the same information. realizations from the study is that not The collective feedback for this product everyone uses the same products, nor are is shown in Table 4. Out of all three they used in the same way. However, the professional groups, TV meteorologists Convective Outlook and Mesoscale were the only ones to not list the Public Convective Discussion consistently Weather Outlook. Additionally, neither stand out, while the Watch somewhat the TV meteorologists nor the NWS surprisingly falls to the third tier in terms forecasters ranked it in terms of of use. This could possibly indicate that frequency of use. However, the first-order consumers are adapting to emergency management group, though SPC products, particularly in terms of they only ranked 6 of the total 10 interpreting the forecast timeline. forecast services, listed the Public Also noted was that while all Weather Outlook, though as the sixth three user groups are clumped together most-used product. This prompts the under the characterization of “first-order question of who the product is really consumers,” they, by no means, can be geared for, and whether it requires grouped this way in terms of information people to actively seek it out. When communication desires. While the text asked whether the protocol for PWO discussion certainly was a prominently issuance should be altered to include used element, it was also noted that other slight risk days, the split was half and individuals rely heavily on the other half with one undecided response. Of elements for understanding and those who said “yes,” most gave the disseminating weather information, response that more information is better stressing the importance of varied and that the product could be used to communication styles within each generally communicate with the public. product. Further, though probability and Of all who said “no,” the reason was that timing information were not considered the product would lose its effectiveness. to be the most useful elements, several A second product not heavily individuals alluded to their importance mentioned is the Enhanced Thunder in interpreting a forecast, indicating that Outlook. From the smattering of those elements are being used as desired comments relating to use of this product, to promote understanding and readiness. it appears many are still unfamiliar. Generally, though results may Seven of the nine respondents stated that not have been what was expected in all they use it only slightly, if at all, while cases, most users are quite satisfied with those who do use it say that it is a recent SPC products and distribution methods. addition to the tools that they use or that Should considerations be made to alter they read it only for confirmation of forecast products in the near future to their own forecast. Others who are better meet user needs, it will be unfamiliar or do not use it often state important to note the features and that they do not require the level of aspects of products and dissemination detail offered, that it is too complicated, methods that individuals already or that it is too general. consider to be beneficial as well as successful.

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6. FUTURE WORK 7. REFERENCES

Though a fair set of results and Fink, Arlene, 2009: How to Conduct conclusions could be obtained and Surveys. 4th ed. SAGE drawn from this study, it will be Publications, Inc., 125. important in the future to utilize a larger, more diverse data set. From these Lazo, J.K., R.E. Morss, and J.L. results, it appears that the three users Demuth: 2009: 300 Billion groups are all relatively well-versed in Served: Sources, Perceptions, SPC products, which may not Uses, and Values of Weather necessarily be the case in a region where Forecasts. Bull. Amer. Metr. Soc. convective, severe weather is not as 785-798. frequent or ordinary and these forecast products are not called upon for Lindell, M.K., C.S. Prater, R.W. Perry, assistance in operations as often. and W.C. Nicholson, 2006: Important future questions to ask Introduction to emergency include those that further assess the management. Fundamentals of utility of the Watch, as it was shown Emergency Management, here to not necessarily be among the Emergency Management most important products that aid in Institute, 1-32. preparing for severe weather as previously thought. Also, future surveys NOAA/National Weather will need to inquire into preferred Service/National Centers for communication styles and methods. Environmental Prediction/Storm Other individuals who may not be as Prediction Center, cited 2011: familiar with the technicality of severe About the SPC. storm environment discussions as those [Available online at in central Oklahoma also may not http://www.spc.noaa.gov.] necessarily turn to the text discussion of Novy, C.H., R. Edwards, D. Imy, and S. forecast products as often as reported in Goss, cited 2011: SPC and its this survey. In this instance, more Products. [Available online at importance would be placed on other http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/ab product aspects. out.html.] Lastly, inquiry into public perception of SPC forecast products and Schumacher, R.S., D.T. Lindsey, A.B. their usefulness will be necessary for Schumacher, J. Braun, S.D. future studies. Ultimately, decision Miller, and J.L. Demuth, 2010: makers are responsible for dispersing Multidisciplinary Analysis of an severe weather information, and must Unusual Tornado: Meteorology, communicate it effectively to the general Climatology, and the public. In any efforts to increase Communication and understanding and effectiveness of Interpretation of Warnings. Wea. forecasts among first-order users, their and Forecast. 25, 1412-1429. end goals must also be acknowledged.

14 8. APPENDIX – Tables and Survey

Tables

Table 1: Rankings of products are provided for each individual. The response provided during the interviews is given under each individual’s identification number, with the adjusted rank in the column immediately to the right. Yellow denotes TV meteorologist response, green marks emergency manager response, and blue signals NWS forecaster response. Ranked Product Use 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Convective Outlooks 1 9 3 1 1 9 1 9 2 5 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 Mesoscale Discussions 2 7.666 2 5 2 5 2 1 1 9 2 6.333 2 7 2 5 2 6.333 Watches 3 6.333 1 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 3 2.666 4 3 0 0 0 0 Forecast Tools 4 5 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 3 1 3 2.666 Status Messages 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2.666 3 5 0 0 0 0 Website Overview 5 3.666 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 Storm Reports 6 2.333 0 0 3 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Severe Thunderstorm Events 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 Public Weather Outlook 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table 2: Table shows effects that each product had on operations, according to survey response.

Total Effects Watch Outlook MCD Prepare for operations 1 1 1 Alert Partners 1 1 1 Staffing 1 1 1 Resource readying 1 1 Alert first responders 1 1 Little to no effect 1 1 Broadcast effects 1 1 Thought verification 1 1 Crew Placement/Distribution 1 Situational use 1 Increased calls in 1 Alter priority levels of operation 1 Finances 1 Size of operations issues 1 Alert Agency 1 Alter meeting schedules 1 Product Production 1 Forecast resource 1 Generate timeline 1

15 Table 3: Sources reported for obtaining SPC information. Yellow denotes TV meteorologist answers, green denotes emergency manager answers, and blue denotes NWS forecaster answers. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Website 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 AWIPS 1 1 1 NWS Chat 1 1 iPhone App 1 1 COD Text Page 1 NWS Norman Briefing 1 Twitter 1 OK First 1

Table 4: Table gives individual opinions of Public Weather Outlook. Yellow denotes TV meteorologist response, green denotes emergency manager response, and blue denotes NWS response. PWO Opinions 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Heard of them 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Has other sources 1 1 1 1 Posts for others 1 1 1 Reads sometimes 1 1 1 Reads for consensus 1 1 1 Too general 1 1 No use 1 1 More for the public 1 1 Not high priority 1 Can't find quickly 1 Too technical 1 Reads for detail 1

16 Survey

Storm Prediction Center Convective Weather Products

1a. Which SPC products do you use?

1b. Of the products listed above, which do you use most often? Please rank them in order, with the first product on the list being the one used the most and the last product on the list being the one used the least.

1c. You said you did not use ______. Have you heard of this product? If so, why do you not use it?

2. Where do you receive Storm Prediction Center information?

3a. What information do you find most useful in the SPC Outlook products? Please rank items in order from most important to least important.

3b. What information do you find most useful in the SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion product? Please rank items in order from most important to least important.

3c. What information do you find most useful in the SPC Watch products? Please rank items in order from most important to least important.

3d. How do tornado/severe thunderstorm watch sizes affect your operations?

Storm Prediction Center Convective Weather Products and Your Operations

4a. How, if at all, do SPC Outlook products affect your operations?

4b. How, if at all, do SPC MCD products affect your operations?

4c. How, if at all, do SPC Watch products affect your operations?

5. When do you think it would be most useful to receive SPC Outlook, MCD or Watch products leading up to a hazardous weather event?

6. How long does it take to enact your emergency operations plan?

Social Media

7a. Do you or your agency use social media (Facebook, Twitter, etc), text, email or other notification system to receive or disseminate hazardous weather information?

7b. If, yes, which systems do you use?

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7c. What information do you receive and/or disseminate?

Public Weather Outlook 8. Do you use the PWO when issued by the SPC and if so, do you find it useful? Why or why not?

9. Should the PWO be issued when any categorical risk area (Slight, Moderate or High) is included in the Day 1 Convective Outlook? Why or why not?

Suggestions

10. Do you have specific suggestions for improvements you would like to see on the SPC website?

11. Do you have any specific suggestions for new products or services or changes to existing products or services that would help you do your job better?

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