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Investigating the Interpretation of the Storm Prediction Center’S Convective Outlook by Broadcast Meteorologists and the Us Public

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Investigating the Interpretation of the Storm Prediction Center’S Convective Outlook by Broadcast Meteorologists and the Us Public UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE COLORFUL LANGUAGE: INVESTIGATING THE INTERPRETATION OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER’S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BY BROADCAST METEOROLOGISTS AND THE US PUBLIC A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN METEOROLOGY By SEAN R. ERNST Norman, Oklahoma 2020 COLORFUL LANGUAGE: INVESTIGATING THE INTERPRETATION OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER’S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BY BROADCAST METEOROLOGISTS AND THE US PUBLIC A THESIS APPROVED FOR THE SCHOOL OF METEOROLOGY BY THE COMMITTEE CONSISTING OF Dr. Harold Brooks, Chair Dr. Elinor Martin Dr. Scott Salesky Dr. Naoko Sakaeda Dr. Joseph Ripberger Dr. Kodi Berry © Copyright by SEAN R. ERNST 2020 All Rights Reserved. Acknowledgements I would first like to thank my lead advisors, Dr. Joe Ripberger and Dr. Harold Brooks, for providing me guidance, opportunity, and funding to perform this research, without them I would not have been able to perform any of the research presented in this paper. I would also like to thank Dr. Kodi Berry and Holly Obermeier, who welcomed me into their CTA broadcaster study with open arms and helped me organize and record interviews with broadcasters from across the nation. As part of that effort, I would like to thank Joseph Trujillo and Emma Landeros for assisting with note-taking and moderation during the focus group and CTA interviews, both helped me keep track of all the information flying around so that I could focus on grilling the broadcasters! I’d be remiss without thanking Dr. Patrick Marsh for his assistance in outlining the development of the 5-tier SPC outlook and for encouraging my work on this project, having the ability to share my results and learn about future SPC product development was invaluable to this project. I’d like to thank Dr. Carol Silva and Dr. Hank Jenkins-Smith, as well as the rest of the students and professors at the Center for Risk and Crisis Management and the National Institute for Risk and Resilience, for being supportive of me as I have grown as a researcher, and for helping build the survey infrastructure that allowed me to collect an incredible amount of data on public SPC outlook comprehension. I am also incredibly grateful to my master’s thesis committee, whose School of Meteorology members included Dr. Elinor Martin, Dr. Naoko Sakaeda, and Dr. Scott Salesky, for supporting me on this journey as well, and for challenging me to do the best research I could! I’m also grateful to have received help and support from Dr. Makenzie Krocak and Jinan Allan at the CRCM, whose expertise in statistics, numeracy, and just surviving grad school allowed me to reach the research goals I set for myself. Finally, I’d like to thank my Dad for always supporting my love of weather, my Mom for sitting with me during scary nighttime thunderstorms, my sister for keeping me in line, my Nana and Papa for taking me on “storm chases” back home in MA, and my Meme and Grampy for always encouraging me to be passionate about storms even if they can be scary! iv Table of Contents Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ vi Table of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... vii Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ ix Chapter 1 – Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 Motivation................................................................................................................................................. 1 Origins of the SPC convective outlook ...................................................................................................... 2 The Crucial Role of Broadcast Meteorologists .......................................................................................... 8 Public SPC Outlook Interpretation .......................................................................................................... 14 The Current Study ................................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 2 – Data and Methods ................................................................................................................... 18 Interview Data Collection........................................................................................................................ 18 Survey Data Collection ............................................................................................................................ 21 Thematic Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 25 Statistical Inference ................................................................................................................................ 29 Chapter 3 – Results and Findings ................................................................................................................ 33 CTA Thematic Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 33 Focus Group Thematic Analysis .............................................................................................................. 41 Survey Data Statistical Analysis............................................................................................................... 47 Chapter 4 – Discussion ................................................................................................................................ 78 Review of Major Findings ........................................................................................................................ 78 Implications/Future Research ................................................................................................................. 82 Study Limitations .................................................................................................................................... 83 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................. 85 References .................................................................................................................................................. 87 Appendix A: Blank CTA interview guide ...................................................................................................... 95 Appendix B: Focus group interview guide .................................................................................................. 97 v List of Tables Table 1: The demographic breakdown of the 2019 WXSurvey. ................................................................. 22 Table 2: Questions used to collect data on the demographic variables. .................................................... 23 Table 3: The time of arrival to work each participant reported. ................................................................ 37 Table 4: The number of additional broadcast meteorologists at work each participant reported. ........... 38 Table 5: The number of participants that ranked the order of the SPC words, for the seven groups with n greater than 90. .......................................................................................................................................... 49 Table 6: The number of participants that answered by ranking order of the SPC colors, for the seven groups with n greater than 90. ................................................................................................................... 51 Table 7: The statistical output from a correlation test with all 12 independent variables. ....................... 56 Table 8: The statistical output from the multiple linear regression models that compared demographics to SPC word and color rank scores. ............................................................................................................ 57 Table 9: The output of the VIF calculation for each independent variable in the word score model. ....... 58 Table 10: The output of the VIF calculation for each independent variable in the color score model. ..... 59 vi Table of Figures Figure 1: The probabilistic breakdown of the original Day 1 Convective Outlook for tornado, wind, and hail threats. ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2: The probabilistic breakdown of the original Day 2 Convective Outlook. ...................................... 4 Figure 3: The probabilistic breakdown of the current Day 1 and 2 Convective Outlooks for tornado, wind, and hail threats. ...........................................................................................................................................
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