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NWS Storm Prediction Center SPC 24X7 Operations 3/6/2019 NWS Storm Prediction Center FACETs will enable ... • Robust quantification of the weather hazard risk Initial realizations of the FACETs Vision: Real- • Better individual and group decision making • Based on individual needs …through both NWS & the private sector time tools and information for severe weather • Consistent communication and DSS, commensurate to decision making risk • Rigorous quantification of potential impacts Dr. Russell S. Schneider Director, NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center 3 March 2019 National Tornado Summit – Public Sheltering Workshop NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center www.spc.noaa.gov • Forecast tornadoes, thunderstorms, and wildfires nationwide • Forecast information from 8 days to a few minutes in advance • World class team engaged with the research community • Partner with over 120 local National Weather Service offices Current: Forecast & Warning Continuum SPC 24x7 Operations Information Void(s) Outlooks Watches Warnings Event Time Days Hours Minutes Space Regional State Local Uncertainty FACETs: Toward a true continuum optimal for the pace of emergency decision making 1 3/6/2019 Tornado Watch SPC Severe Weather Outlooks Alerting messages issued to the public through media partners SPC Forecaster collaborating on watch characteristics with local NWS offices to communicate the forecast tornado threat to the Public Issued since the early 1950’s SPC Lead Forecaster SPC Lead Forecaster National Experience Average National Experience: 10 years as Lead; almost 20 overall NWS Local Forecast Office Partners – 120+ Nationwide What makes this problem difficult? 2 3/6/2019 The Atmosphere is Inherently Chaotic Will there be a tornado where I live and thus Probabilistic today? “Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate The Future is Not Deterministic: Not Black and White or Yes / No present does not approximately determine the future.” - Edward Lorenz No Yes Slingo and Bauer, Thorpe, and Palmer, 2011 Brunet 2015 13 14 Will there be a tornado where I live Will there be a tornado today? … within 25 miles of … The key is to embrace grayness (probabilities), and rigorously estimate how gray (how likely)! where I live today? 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 15 16 What is Normal? What is Normal? Near OKC 1.40% each day … within 25 miles of Oklahoma City OK … near peak in early May: 1.40% each day 0% 50% 100% 17 3 3/6/2019 Will there be a tornado Will there be a tornado … within 25 miles of … … within 25 miles of … where I live today? where I live today? Marginal Slight Enhanced Moderate High Risk 0 2 5 10 15 30 45 60 0 2 5 10 15 30 45 60 Tornado Forecasts – more than 6 hours in advance 0% 60% 0% 60% 19 20 Probabilistic Outlook Verification Probabilistic Severe Weather Outlooks SPC Severe Weather Outlook SPC Probabilistic Tornado Outlook SPC Experts: Estimating how likely a rare tornado is … every day for Historic 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak for Historic 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak Day 1 Probabilistic Outlooks Day 2 & 3 Probabilistic Outlooks “Reliable” “Reliable” Under Under Over Over Probability of Probability of Severe Convective Winds Large Hail Five year sample: 2010 - 2014 SPC Probabilistic Severe Weather Outlooks are statistically reliable Tuscaloosa Alabama - 27 April 2011 Current SPC Focus Forecast & Warning Continuum Information Void(s) Outlooks Watches Warnings Event Time Days Hours Minutes Space Regional State Local High Resolution Short Term Uncertainty Probabilistic Outlooks Toward a true continuum optimal for the pace of emergency decision making 4 3/6/2019 Ensembles: Scenarios & Impacts for IDSS Forecaster Tools: Storm Scale Ensembles ARW – CN ARW – C0 NMM – CN NMM – C0 ARPS – CN ARPS – C0 18 hr Forecast - 1 km “Radar” Observed Radar Reflectivity HWT 2009 Spring Experiment Led by: Israel Jirak 23 Feb 2019: MS AL Tornado Clusters 12 tornadoes; 1 EF3 (Columbus MS); 1 EF 2; 4 EF1 with 1 fatalities & 19 injuries John Steuart Curry – Tornado over Kansas (1929) What is Normal? … in Columbus MS 0.4% Probabilistic Severe Weather Outlook SPC Severe Weather Outlook – 23 February 2019 Probabilistic Tornado Outlook Severe Convective Winds Large Hail SPC Probabilistic Severe Weather Outlooks are statistically reliable 5 3/6/2019 High Resolution Severe Weather Outlooks High Resolution Severe Weather Outlooks High Resolution Severe Weather Outlooks High Resolution Severe Weather Outlooks High Resolution Severe Weather Outlooks High Resolution Severe Weather Outlooks Future Capacity: WoF 4hr forecast supercell threat A tornadic supercell is very likely to pass near your community in around 4 hours 6 3/6/2019 3 March 2019: AL GA Tornado Clusters www.spc.noaa.gov 24 preliminary tornado reports; with 14 fatalities (12 near Beauregard, AL) & many injuries Many Challenges and Questions Remain www.spc.noaa.gov • How can weather professionals best communicate this emerging, http://facebook.com/NWSSPC highly detailed, science-based information to emergency managers http://twitter.com/NWSSPC and other emergency decision makers? [email protected] • How should current weather information forms best evolve to take advantage of this new information, while retaining key successful elements of our current approach familiar throughout the public? • How can we best exploit this new, potentially rapidly evolving threat information for emergency decision making, but retain simple effective messages for the public? 7.
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