The Convective Watcher
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From Improving Tornado Warnings: from Observation to Forecast
Improving Tornado Warnings: from Observation to Forecast John T. Snow Regents’ Professor of Meteorology Dean Emeritus, College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, The University of Oklahoma Major contributions from: Dr. Russel Schneider –NOAA Storm Prediction Center Dr. David Stensrud – NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Dr. Ming Xue –Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma Dr. Lou Wicker –NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Hazards Caucus Alliance Briefing Tornadoes: Understanding how they develop and providing early warning 10:30 am – 11:30 am, Wednesday, 21 July 2010 Senate Capitol Visitors Center 212 Each Year: ~1,500 tornadoes touch down in the United States, causing over 80 deaths, 100s of injuries, and an estimated $1.1 billion in damages Statistics from NOAA Storm Prediction Center Supercell –A long‐lived rotating thunderstorm the primary type of thunderstorm producing strong and violent tornadoes Present Warning System: Warn on Detection • A Warning is the culmination of information developed and distributed over the preceding days sequence of day‐by‐day forecasts identifies an area of high threat •On the day, storm spotters deployed; radars monitor formation, growth of thunderstorms • Appearance of distinct cloud or radar echo features tornado has formed or is about to do so Warning is generated, distributed Present Warning System: Warn on Detection Radar at 2100 CST Radar at 2130 CST with Warning Thunderstorms are monitored using radar A warning is issued based on the detected and -
14B.6 ESTIMATED CONVECTIVE WINDS: RELIABILITY and EFFECTS on SEVERE-STORM CLIMATOLOGY
14B.6 ESTIMATED CONVECTIVE WINDS: RELIABILITY and EFFECTS on SEVERE-STORM CLIMATOLOGY Roger Edwards1 NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK Gregory W. Carbin NWS Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD 1. BACKGROUND In 2006, NCDC (now NCEI) Storm Data, from By definition, convectively produced surface winds which the SPC database is directly derived, began to ≥50 kt (58 mph, 26m s–1) in the U.S. are classified as record whether gust reports were measured by an severe, whether measured or estimated. Other wind instrument or estimated. Formats before and after reports that can verify warnings and appear in the this change are exemplified in Fig. 1. Storm Data Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe-weather contains default entries of “Thunderstorm Wind” database (Schaefer and Edwards 1999) include followed by values in parentheses with an acronym assorted forms of convective wind damage to specifying whether a gust was measured (MG) or structures and trees. Though the “wind” portion of the estimated (EG), along with the measured and SPC dataset includes both damage reports and estimated “sustained” convective wind categories (MS specific gust values, this study only encompasses the and ES respectively). MGs from standard ASOS and latter (whether or not damage was documented to AWOS observation sites are available independently accompany any given gust). For clarity, “convective prior to 2006 and have been analyzed in previous gusts” refer to all gusts in the database, regardless of studies [e.g., the Smith et al. (2013) climatology and whether thunder specifically was associated with any mapping]; however specific categorization of EGs and given report. -
5-Day Weather Outlook 04.23.21
Friday, April 23, 2021 5-Day Statewide Weather Outlook No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat Damaging Flash Coastal Day Lightning Tornado Wildfire Fog Rip Currents Wind/Hail Flooding Flooding Panhandle Western Far NW FL Far NW West Coast Fri South FL (overnight) Panhandle W Panhandle Florida Elsewhere North FL Panhandle & Sat Central FL North Florida North Florida South FL Statewide Big Bend South FL Northeast FL Sun South FL Statewide & Peninsula Panhandle Mon South FL Elsewhere Southeast Tue South FL Statewide Florida Severe Weather Hazard Breakdown for Saturday: Tornadoes (left), Damaging Winds (center), Large Hail (right) Maximum Wind Gusts through Saturday Afternoon Forecast Rainfall Totals Through Tuesday Night FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 04.23.21 …Potentially Significant Severe Weather Event for North Florida on Saturday…Two Rounds of Severe Weather Possible Across North Florida…Windy Outside of Storms in North Florida…Hot with Isolated Showers and Storms in the Peninsula this Weekend…Minor Coastal Flooding Possible in Southeast Florida Next Week… Friday - Saturday: A warm front over the Gulf of Mexico tonight will lift northward through the Panhandle and Big Bend Saturday morning. This brings the first round of thunderstorms into the Panhandle late tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the western Panhandle in a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather tonight (level 1-2 of 5). Damaging winds up to 60 mph and isolated tornadoes will be the main threat, mainly after 2 AM CT. On Saturday, the first complex of storms will be rolling across southern Alabama and southern Georgia in the morning and afternoon hours, clipping areas north of I-10 in Florida. -
Samantha Santeiu 02-15-09 Sec. 9, Dave Defina Chasing a Storm
Samantha Santeiu 02-15-09 Sec. 9, Dave DeFina Chasing a Storm Specific Purpose Statement : To inform my audience how meteorologists chase storms and about the importance of storm chasing in meteorological research. Central Idea : Storm chasing requires special tools and software; chases follow a general procedure on the chase day; and chasing has great importance in meteorological research. Pattern of Organization : topical. INTRODUCTION It’s September, 1900, in Galveston, Texas. Isaac Cline, a well-known climatologist, rides his horse and buggy along the beach. He’s here to observe the unusually high, gusting winds and huge waves crashing onshore. He orders the people of Galveston to evacuate. [VISUAL AID] Little did he know, he had just chased the massive Galveston hurricane of 1900 that would proceed to kill at least 6,000 people in the area. According to “A Brief History of Storm Chasing” on the National Association of Storm Chasers and Spotters website, this is one of the first accounts of storm chasing that we have. How about this: how many of you have seen the movie Twister ? [VISUAL AID] The basic storyline is that two people are storm chasers, and in the end they chase an epically huge tornado in the name of research. That is a more modern, albeit a bit inaccurate, account of storm chasing. I would like to inform you today about chasing storms, the way meteorologists do it. I plan to research severe storms as a career, so I have investigated the topic thoroughly and interviewed peers and professors on the subject. While storm chasing may seem like fun, there’s actually a lot involved. -
Riding the Storm
physicsworld.com Careers Riding the storm out A career in severe-weather research offers flexibility and plenty of opportunities to experience the fascinating physics of the rotating fluid called the atmosphere. Josh Wurman describes the science of storm-chasing and why hurricanes are scarier than tornadoes Take me to the weather Josh Wurman enjoys the freedom that being a freelance meteorologist affords him. I am standing on a bridge near the North thematical, essentially applied fluid dynam- mapped out the winds inside tornadoes, so Carolina coast. There is a light breeze, and I ics, and the real-world effects of these equa- no-one really knew how strong they were. am enjoying some hazy sunshine. But this tions can be seen every day. The equations After reading the relevant literature, I de- calm is an illusion: in a few minutes winds of of motion for the atmosphere cause trees to cided that a more ambitious technological up to 45 m s–1 (100 mph) will sweep in again. be blown down, hail to fall and snowdrifts and logistical approach could push back the The approaches to my section of the bridge to pile up – all things that I could witness veil of ignorance about these fascinating phe- are already drowned under 2.5 m of water, while growing up in Pennsylvania. nomena. So in 1994 I decided to shift focus, and my companions on this island are an I started out as a physics major at the Mas- leaving NCAR for a faculty position at the eclectic mix of traumatized animals, inclu- sachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), University of Oklahoma, where I developed ding snakes, rats, wounded pelicans and but my real interest was meteorology, in a prototype mobile weather radar system frogs. -
NWS Storm Prediction Center SPC 24X7 Operations
3/6/2019 NWS Storm Prediction Center FACETs will enable ... • Robust quantification of the weather hazard risk Initial realizations of the FACETs Vision: Real- • Better individual and group decision making • Based on individual needs …through both NWS & the private sector time tools and information for severe weather • Consistent communication and DSS, commensurate to decision making risk • Rigorous quantification of potential impacts Dr. Russell S. Schneider Director, NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center 3 March 2019 National Tornado Summit – Public Sheltering Workshop NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center www.spc.noaa.gov • Forecast tornadoes, thunderstorms, and wildfires nationwide • Forecast information from 8 days to a few minutes in advance • World class team engaged with the research community • Partner with over 120 local National Weather Service offices Current: Forecast & Warning Continuum SPC 24x7 Operations Information Void(s) Outlooks Watches Warnings Event Time Days Hours Minutes Space Regional State Local Uncertainty FACETs: Toward a true continuum optimal for the pace of emergency decision making 1 3/6/2019 Tornado Watch SPC Severe Weather Outlooks Alerting messages issued to the public through media partners SPC Forecaster collaborating on watch characteristics with local NWS offices to communicate the forecast tornado threat to the Public Issued since the early 1950’s SPC Lead Forecaster SPC Lead Forecaster National Experience Average National Experience: 10 years as Lead; almost 20 overall NWS Local Forecast Office Partners -
John Hart Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK
John Hart Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK 7th European Conference on Severe Storms, Helsinki, Finland – Friday June 7th, 2013 SPC Overview: US Naonal Weather Service 122 Local Weather Forecast Offices Ususally about 12 meteoroloGists who work rotating shifts. Very busy with daily forecast tasks (public/aviation forecasts, etc). Limited severe weather experience, even if they work in an active office. Image source: Steve M., Minnesota ClimatoloGy Working Group SPC Overview: US Storm Predic/on Center • Focus on severe storms. • Second set of eyes for the local offices. • Consistent overview of severe storm threat. • HIGH EXPERIENCE LEVELS Forecasts for entire US • Very competitive to join staff (except Alaska and Hawaii) • Stable staff • Few people leave before retirement • No competition with local offices • SPC does not issue warnings • Easy collaboration with local offices Our job is to help the local offices, not compete or overshadow. Image source: Steve M., Minnesota ClimatoloGy Working Group SPC Overview: US Storm Predic/on Center • Usually four forecasters on shift • Lead Forecaster • 2 mesoscale forecasters • 1 outlook forecaster • Lead Forecaster • Shift supervisor • Makes final call on all products • Issues watches • Promoted from mesoscale/outlook forecaster ranks • Mesoscale Forecaster • Focuses on 0-6 hour forecasts • Writes mesoscale discussions • Outlook Forecaster • Focuses on longer ranges and larger scales • Days 1-8 • Write convective outlooks Image source: Steve M., Minnesota ClimatoloGy Working Group My Background -
The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center
AUGUST 1999 CORFIDI 507 The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center STEPHEN F. C ORFIDI NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 12 August 1998, in ®nal form 15 January 1999) ABSTRACT An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center's immediate history dates to the middle of the twentieth century, the nation's ®rst centralized severe weather forecast effort actually appeared much earlier with the pioneering work of Army Signal Corps of®cer J. P. Finley in the 1870s. Little progress was made in the understanding or forecasting of severe convective weather after Finley until the nascent aviation industry fostered an interest in meteorology in the 1920s. Despite the increased attention, forecasts for tornadoes remained a rarity until Air Force forecasters E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller gained notoriety by correctly forecasting the second tornado to strike Tinker Air Force Base in one week on 25 March 1948. The success of this and later Fawbush and Miller efforts led the Weather Bureau (predecessor to the National Weather Service) to establish its own severe weather unit on a temporary basis in the Weather Bureau± Army±Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center Washington, D.C., in March 1952. The WBAN severe weather unit became a permanent, ®ve-man operation under the direction of K. M. Barnett on 21 May 1952. The group was responsible for the issuance of ``bulletins'' (watches) for tornadoes, high winds, and/or damaging hail; outlooks for severe convective weather were inaugurated in January 1953. -
Storm Spotting – Solidifying the Basics PROFESSOR PAUL SIRVATKA COLLEGE of DUPAGE METEOROLOGY Focus on Anticipating and Spotting
Storm Spotting – Solidifying the Basics PROFESSOR PAUL SIRVATKA COLLEGE OF DUPAGE METEOROLOGY HTTP://WEATHER.COD.EDU Focus on Anticipating and Spotting • What do you look for? • What will you actually see? • Can you identify what is going on with the storm? Is Gilbert married? Hmmmmm….rumor has it….. Its all about the updraft! Not that easy! • Various types of storms and storm structures. • A tornado is a “big sucky • Obscuration of important thing” and underneath the features make spotting updraft is where it forms. difficult. • So find the updraft! • The closer you are to a storm the more difficult it becomes to make these identifications. Conceptual models Reality is much harder. Basic Conceptual Model Sometimes its easy! North Central Illinois, 2-28-17 (Courtesy of Matt Piechota) Other times, not so much. Reality usually is far more complicated than our perfect pictures Rain Free Base Dusty Outflow More like reality SCUD Scattered Cumulus Under Deck Sigh...wall clouds! • Wall clouds help spotters identify where the updraft of a storm is • Wall clouds may or may not be present with tornadic storms • Wall clouds may be seen with any storm with an updraft • Wall clouds may or may not be rotating • Wall clouds may or may not result in tornadoes • Wall clouds should not be reported unless there is strong and easily observable rotation noted • When a clear slot is observed, a well written or transmitted report should say as much Characteristics of a Tornadic Wall Cloud • Surface-based inflow • Rapid vertical motion (scud-sucking) • Persistent • Persistent rotation Clear Slot • The key, however, is the development of a clear slot Prof. -
Explaining the Trends and Variability in the United States Tornado Records
www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices Niloufar Nouri1*, Naresh Devineni1,2*, Valerie Were2 & Reza Khanbilvardi1,2 The annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacifc Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefcients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The infuence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies. -
STORM DOCTOR a Storm Chasing Physician’S First-Hand Account
JOURNAL OF Civi lDEFENSE VOLUME 45 2012 ISSUE STORM DOCTOR A Storm Chasing Physician’s First-Hand Account CIVIL DEFENSE REDUX - It’s Back Psychology of Survival ANOTHER WAY TO BE PREPARED Social Media Lessons from the Joplin, Missouri Tornado Ways YOU Can Help PROTECTING FUEL SUPPLIES Preserve and Restore Your Fuel Supply NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN CLEAN, SAFE, WATER AQUA RAIN Ceramic Water Filtration Systems for Emergencies The AquaRain® Natural Water Filter will pro - vide your family and loved ones with lab - oratory proven safe drinking water without electricity, without plumbing, and without pressure or chemical pre-treatments. Its patented space-age ceram - ic technology positive - ly removes danger - As low As ous living organ - $ .96 isms and harmful 184 bacteria from your drinking water 1-800-425-5397 naturally, using micro-filtration and gravity. Here is what may be the best VISIT OUR STORE AT part. The AquaRain® can produce quali - ty drinking water for less than 2¢ per gallon! www.tacda.org JOURNAL OF Civil DEFENSE BOARD OF DIRECTORS Dr. GarY M. Sandquist (President) Sharon Packer (Secretary, Treasurer) JaY R. WhimpeY William D. Perkins Dr. Gerald LooneY IN TH IS ISSUE Bronius Cikotas Dr. Charles CoX Dr. TammY TaYlor Storm Doctor 3 By Jason Persoff, M.D. ADVISORS . Paul SeYfried Is Your Vehicle Prepared? 10 By D6 Survivor Chuck FenWick Dr. Jane Orient Michael G. BaZinet 5 Reasons Why Beans Should be a Staple Dr. Landon Beales 11 in Your Food Storage Dr. Dane Dickson 6 By Jodie and Julie (www.foodstoragemadeeasy.net) Sid Ogden Jonathan Jones KYlene Jones Civil Defense Redux Dr. -
Storm-Chasers.Pdf
By Jim Aaron Vocabulary apprentice atmosphere chemical club essay manufacturing pressure scales Word count: 1,585 Note: The total word count includes words in the running text and headings only. Numerals and words in chapter titles, captions, labels, diagrams, charts, graphs, sidebars, and extra features are not included. Storm Chasers By Jim Aaron Glenview, Illinois • Boston, Massachusetts • Chandler, Arizona • Upper Saddle River, New Jersey Photographs Every effort has been made to secure permission and provide appropriate credit for photographic material. The publisher deeply regrets any omission and pledges to correct errors called to its attention in subsequent editions. Unless otherwise acknowledged, all photographs are the property of Pearson Education, Inc. Photo locators denoted as follows: Top (T), Center (C), Bottom (B), Left (L), Right (R), Background (Bkgd) Opener ©A.T. Willett/Alamy Images; 1 ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy; 4 World Perspectives/ Taxi/Getty Images; 5 (Inset) ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy, (Bkgd) Doug Allan/Getty Images; 6 NOAA; 7 (T) David J. Phillip/©AP Images, (B) Marko Georgiev/Getty Images; 8 United States Department of the Interior; 9 NOAA; 10 NOAA; 11 Richard Cooke / Alamy Images; 12 Roger Ressmeyer/Corbis; 13 (Inset) ©Reuters/Corbis, (T) National Hurricane Cente/AFP/Getty Images; 14 (T) NOAA, (B) Wilfredo Lee/©AP Images; 15 Jim Reed/ Corbis; 16 Everett Collection, Inc.; 18 Jim West/Alamy Images; 19 Jupiter Images. ISBN 13: 978-0-328-51648-3 ISBN 10: 0-328-51648-1 Copyright © by Pearson Education, Inc., or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. This publication is protected by copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.