Hazardous Weather Communication En Español Challenges, Current Resources, and Future Practices Joseph E
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From Improving Tornado Warnings: from Observation to Forecast
Improving Tornado Warnings: from Observation to Forecast John T. Snow Regents’ Professor of Meteorology Dean Emeritus, College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, The University of Oklahoma Major contributions from: Dr. Russel Schneider –NOAA Storm Prediction Center Dr. David Stensrud – NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Dr. Ming Xue –Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma Dr. Lou Wicker –NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory Hazards Caucus Alliance Briefing Tornadoes: Understanding how they develop and providing early warning 10:30 am – 11:30 am, Wednesday, 21 July 2010 Senate Capitol Visitors Center 212 Each Year: ~1,500 tornadoes touch down in the United States, causing over 80 deaths, 100s of injuries, and an estimated $1.1 billion in damages Statistics from NOAA Storm Prediction Center Supercell –A long‐lived rotating thunderstorm the primary type of thunderstorm producing strong and violent tornadoes Present Warning System: Warn on Detection • A Warning is the culmination of information developed and distributed over the preceding days sequence of day‐by‐day forecasts identifies an area of high threat •On the day, storm spotters deployed; radars monitor formation, growth of thunderstorms • Appearance of distinct cloud or radar echo features tornado has formed or is about to do so Warning is generated, distributed Present Warning System: Warn on Detection Radar at 2100 CST Radar at 2130 CST with Warning Thunderstorms are monitored using radar A warning is issued based on the detected and -
14B.6 ESTIMATED CONVECTIVE WINDS: RELIABILITY and EFFECTS on SEVERE-STORM CLIMATOLOGY
14B.6 ESTIMATED CONVECTIVE WINDS: RELIABILITY and EFFECTS on SEVERE-STORM CLIMATOLOGY Roger Edwards1 NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK Gregory W. Carbin NWS Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD 1. BACKGROUND In 2006, NCDC (now NCEI) Storm Data, from By definition, convectively produced surface winds which the SPC database is directly derived, began to ≥50 kt (58 mph, 26m s–1) in the U.S. are classified as record whether gust reports were measured by an severe, whether measured or estimated. Other wind instrument or estimated. Formats before and after reports that can verify warnings and appear in the this change are exemplified in Fig. 1. Storm Data Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe-weather contains default entries of “Thunderstorm Wind” database (Schaefer and Edwards 1999) include followed by values in parentheses with an acronym assorted forms of convective wind damage to specifying whether a gust was measured (MG) or structures and trees. Though the “wind” portion of the estimated (EG), along with the measured and SPC dataset includes both damage reports and estimated “sustained” convective wind categories (MS specific gust values, this study only encompasses the and ES respectively). MGs from standard ASOS and latter (whether or not damage was documented to AWOS observation sites are available independently accompany any given gust). For clarity, “convective prior to 2006 and have been analyzed in previous gusts” refer to all gusts in the database, regardless of studies [e.g., the Smith et al. (2013) climatology and whether thunder specifically was associated with any mapping]; however specific categorization of EGs and given report. -
5-Day Weather Outlook 04.23.21
Friday, April 23, 2021 5-Day Statewide Weather Outlook No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat Damaging Flash Coastal Day Lightning Tornado Wildfire Fog Rip Currents Wind/Hail Flooding Flooding Panhandle Western Far NW FL Far NW West Coast Fri South FL (overnight) Panhandle W Panhandle Florida Elsewhere North FL Panhandle & Sat Central FL North Florida North Florida South FL Statewide Big Bend South FL Northeast FL Sun South FL Statewide & Peninsula Panhandle Mon South FL Elsewhere Southeast Tue South FL Statewide Florida Severe Weather Hazard Breakdown for Saturday: Tornadoes (left), Damaging Winds (center), Large Hail (right) Maximum Wind Gusts through Saturday Afternoon Forecast Rainfall Totals Through Tuesday Night FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 04.23.21 …Potentially Significant Severe Weather Event for North Florida on Saturday…Two Rounds of Severe Weather Possible Across North Florida…Windy Outside of Storms in North Florida…Hot with Isolated Showers and Storms in the Peninsula this Weekend…Minor Coastal Flooding Possible in Southeast Florida Next Week… Friday - Saturday: A warm front over the Gulf of Mexico tonight will lift northward through the Panhandle and Big Bend Saturday morning. This brings the first round of thunderstorms into the Panhandle late tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the western Panhandle in a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather tonight (level 1-2 of 5). Damaging winds up to 60 mph and isolated tornadoes will be the main threat, mainly after 2 AM CT. On Saturday, the first complex of storms will be rolling across southern Alabama and southern Georgia in the morning and afternoon hours, clipping areas north of I-10 in Florida. -
Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Ivan
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Ivan 2-24 September 2004 Stacy R. Stewart National Hurricane Center 16 December 2004 Updated 27 May 2005 to revise damage estimate Updated 11 August 2011 to revise damage estimate Ivan was a classical, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that reached Category 5 strength three times on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). It was also the strongest hurricane on record that far south east of the Lesser Antilles. Ivan caused considerable damage and loss of life as it passed through the Caribbean Sea. a. Synoptic History Ivan developed from a large tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on 31 August. Although the wave was accompanied by a surface pressure system and an impressive upper-level outflow pattern, associated convection was limited and not well organized. However, by early on 1 September, convective banding began to develop around the low-level center and Dvorak satellite classifications were initiated later that day. Favorable upper-level outflow and low shear environment was conducive for the formation of vigorous deep convection to develop and persist near the center, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed around 1800 UTC 2 September. Figure 1 depicts the “best track” of the tropical cyclone’s path. The wind and pressure histories are shown in Figs. 2a and 3a, respectively. Table 1 is a listing of the best track positions and intensities. Despite a relatively low latitude (9.7o N), development continued and it is estimated that the cyclone became Tropical Storm Ivan just 12 h later at 0600 UTC 3 September. -
Skywarn Storm Spotter Guide
Skywarn Storm Spotter Guide ...For Western Nevada and Eastern California... National Weather Service Reno, Nevada CONTENTS Introduction........................................................................................................... 3 A Note to Amateur Radio Operators..................................................................... 4 Who to Call........................................................................................................... 5 NWS Reno County Warning Area Map ................................................................ 6 What to Report -Tornadoes / Severe Thunderstorms ......................................................... 7 -Heavy Rain/Flooding ................................................................................ 8 -Winter Storms......................................................................................... 10 -Fog/Other ............................................................................................... 11 Estimating Precipitation Intensity........................................................................ 12 Beaufort Wind Scale........................................................................................... 13 Handy Dandy Hail Size Estimator....................................................................... 14 After the Storm ................................................................................................... 15 Watch/Warning/Advisory Criteria........................................................................ 16 Sources -
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & a Brief Look at the 18
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & A Brief Look At The 18 June 2010 Derecho Gino Izzi National Weather Service, Chicago IL Outline • Meteorology 301: Squall lines – Brief review of thunderstorm basics – Squall lines – Squall line tornadoes – Mesovorticies • Storm spotting for squall lines • Brief Case Study of 18 June 2010 Event Thunderstorm Ingredients • Moisture – Gulf of Mexico most common source locally Thunderstorm Ingredients • Lifting Mechanism(s) – Fronts – Jet Streams – “other” boundaries – topography Thunderstorm Ingredients • Instability – Measure of potential for air to accelerate upward – CAPE: common variable used to quantify magnitude of instability < 1000: weak 1000-2000: moderate 2000-4000: strong 4000+: extreme Thunderstorms Thunderstorms • Moisture + Instability + Lift = Thunderstorms • What kind of thunderstorms? – Single Cell – Multicell/Squall Line – Supercells Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? – Short/simplistic answer: CAPE vs Shear Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? (Longer/more complex answer) – Lot we don’t know, other factors (besides CAPE/shear) include • Strength of forcing • Strength of CAP • Shear WRT to boundary • Other stuff Thunderstorm Types • Multi-cell squall lines most common type of severe thunderstorm type locally • Most common type of severe weather is damaging winds • Hail and brief tornadoes can occur with most the intense squall lines Squall Lines & Spotting Squall Line Terminology • Squall Line : a relatively narrow line of thunderstorms, often -
NWS Storm Prediction Center SPC 24X7 Operations
3/6/2019 NWS Storm Prediction Center FACETs will enable ... • Robust quantification of the weather hazard risk Initial realizations of the FACETs Vision: Real- • Better individual and group decision making • Based on individual needs …through both NWS & the private sector time tools and information for severe weather • Consistent communication and DSS, commensurate to decision making risk • Rigorous quantification of potential impacts Dr. Russell S. Schneider Director, NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center 3 March 2019 National Tornado Summit – Public Sheltering Workshop NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center www.spc.noaa.gov • Forecast tornadoes, thunderstorms, and wildfires nationwide • Forecast information from 8 days to a few minutes in advance • World class team engaged with the research community • Partner with over 120 local National Weather Service offices Current: Forecast & Warning Continuum SPC 24x7 Operations Information Void(s) Outlooks Watches Warnings Event Time Days Hours Minutes Space Regional State Local Uncertainty FACETs: Toward a true continuum optimal for the pace of emergency decision making 1 3/6/2019 Tornado Watch SPC Severe Weather Outlooks Alerting messages issued to the public through media partners SPC Forecaster collaborating on watch characteristics with local NWS offices to communicate the forecast tornado threat to the Public Issued since the early 1950’s SPC Lead Forecaster SPC Lead Forecaster National Experience Average National Experience: 10 years as Lead; almost 20 overall NWS Local Forecast Office Partners -
John Hart Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK
John Hart Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK 7th European Conference on Severe Storms, Helsinki, Finland – Friday June 7th, 2013 SPC Overview: US Naonal Weather Service 122 Local Weather Forecast Offices Ususally about 12 meteoroloGists who work rotating shifts. Very busy with daily forecast tasks (public/aviation forecasts, etc). Limited severe weather experience, even if they work in an active office. Image source: Steve M., Minnesota ClimatoloGy Working Group SPC Overview: US Storm Predic/on Center • Focus on severe storms. • Second set of eyes for the local offices. • Consistent overview of severe storm threat. • HIGH EXPERIENCE LEVELS Forecasts for entire US • Very competitive to join staff (except Alaska and Hawaii) • Stable staff • Few people leave before retirement • No competition with local offices • SPC does not issue warnings • Easy collaboration with local offices Our job is to help the local offices, not compete or overshadow. Image source: Steve M., Minnesota ClimatoloGy Working Group SPC Overview: US Storm Predic/on Center • Usually four forecasters on shift • Lead Forecaster • 2 mesoscale forecasters • 1 outlook forecaster • Lead Forecaster • Shift supervisor • Makes final call on all products • Issues watches • Promoted from mesoscale/outlook forecaster ranks • Mesoscale Forecaster • Focuses on 0-6 hour forecasts • Writes mesoscale discussions • Outlook Forecaster • Focuses on longer ranges and larger scales • Days 1-8 • Write convective outlooks Image source: Steve M., Minnesota ClimatoloGy Working Group My Background -
The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center
AUGUST 1999 CORFIDI 507 The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center STEPHEN F. C ORFIDI NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 12 August 1998, in ®nal form 15 January 1999) ABSTRACT An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center's immediate history dates to the middle of the twentieth century, the nation's ®rst centralized severe weather forecast effort actually appeared much earlier with the pioneering work of Army Signal Corps of®cer J. P. Finley in the 1870s. Little progress was made in the understanding or forecasting of severe convective weather after Finley until the nascent aviation industry fostered an interest in meteorology in the 1920s. Despite the increased attention, forecasts for tornadoes remained a rarity until Air Force forecasters E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller gained notoriety by correctly forecasting the second tornado to strike Tinker Air Force Base in one week on 25 March 1948. The success of this and later Fawbush and Miller efforts led the Weather Bureau (predecessor to the National Weather Service) to establish its own severe weather unit on a temporary basis in the Weather Bureau± Army±Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center Washington, D.C., in March 1952. The WBAN severe weather unit became a permanent, ®ve-man operation under the direction of K. M. Barnett on 21 May 1952. The group was responsible for the issuance of ``bulletins'' (watches) for tornadoes, high winds, and/or damaging hail; outlooks for severe convective weather were inaugurated in January 1953. -
SKYWARN Detailed Documentation
SKYWARN Detailed Documentation NWS Terminology Convective Outlook Categories Risk Description 0 - Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of General thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period. 1 - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low Marginal coverage and marginal intensity. An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with 2 - Slight varying levels of intensity. 3 - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying Enhanced levels of intensity. An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous 4 - severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is Moderate usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds. An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This 5 - High risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events). Hazardous Weather Risks Risk Description An advisory is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent, or likely. Advisories are for "less serious" conditions than warnings that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution is not exercised could lead to Advisory situations that may threaten life or property. The National Weather Service may activate weather spotters in areas affected by advisories to help them better track and analyze the event. -
2005 SKYWARN Agenda
2019 ND Severe Summer Weather Awareness Week Fact Sheet Are you Weather-Ready? North Dakota Severe Summer Weather Awareness Week is set for April 29 through May 3, 2019. Awareness weeks in North Dakota are joint efforts of many agencies, including but not limited to, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), NDDES (North Dakota Department of Emergency Services), the North Dakota Broadcasters Association, your local emergency manager, and NWS (National Weather Service). Local emergency managers and media partners get the word out about severe weather in North Dakota, helping people to be prepared. Severe Summer Weather Awareness Week is designed to heighten awareness about the coming severe weather season. In this case, to get us thinking less about winter storms and more about thunderstorm hazards such as lightning, hail, high wind, flash floods, and tornadoes. FEMA recommends in their "America's PrepareAthon!" initiative - Be Smart (informed), Take Part (practice drills), and Prepare (have a plan). Be Ready! On Wednesday, May 1, we recommend practicing tornado drills in communities, at schools, at places of business, and at home. Each community, school district, county and Tribal Government will decide whether or not to practice drills and to what extent. Some schools and businesses / factories will conduct a drill for their students / staff / employees and some will not. Some communities will test outdoor warning sirens and some will not. The NWS has no authority over what action is or is not taken. That decision is left to local officials and business owners. We do, of course, recommend safety measures be reviewed and drills be practiced. -
U.S. Violent Tornadoes Relative to the Position of the 850-Mb
U.S. VIOLENT TORNADOES RELATIVE TO THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB JET Chris Broyles1, Corey K. Potvin 2, Casey Crosbie3, Robert M. Rabin4, Patrick Skinner5 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 2 Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma 3 NOAA/NWS/CWSU, Indianapolis, Indiana 4 National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma 5 Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma Abstract The Violent Tornado Webpage from the Storm Prediction Center has been used to obtain data for 182 events (404 violent tornadoes) in which an F4-F5 or EF4-EF5 tornado occurred in the United States from 1950 to 2014. The position of each violent tornado was recorded on a gridded plot compared to the 850 mb jet center within 90 minutes of the violent tornado. The position of each 850 mb jet was determined using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 2014 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis from 1950 to 1978. Plots are shown of the position of each violent tornado relative to the center of the 850 mb low-level jet. The United States was divided into four parts and the plots are available for the southern Plains, northern Plains, northeastern U.S. and southeastern U.S with a division between east and west at the Mississippi River. Great Plains violent tornadoes clustered around a center about 130 statute miles to the left and slightly ahead of the low-level jet center while eastern U.S.