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Communicating Weather Information to the Public: People's Reactions and Understandings of Weather Information and Terminology

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Communicating Weather Information to the Public: People's Reactions and Understandings of Weather Information and Terminology P1.3 COMMUNICATING WEATHER INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC: PEOPLE©S REACTIONS AND UNDERSTANDINGS OF WEATHER INFORMATION AND TERMINOLOGY SCOTT W. POWELL* National Weather Center REU Program, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; and Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida H. DAN O©HAIR University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 1. Introduction different groups of people (Pennesi, 2007). For example, among hurricanes, the general public Forecasts of weather phenomena have become recognizes the cone released by NOAA©s National increasingly accurate over the past several decades. Hurricane Center forecasts for the future track of While increasingly complex mesoscale models have troipcal cyclones by several names, including ªcone of been developed, ensemble forecast techniques have deathº, ªcone of uncertaintyº, or ªcone of deathº, been improved, and strides in graphical interpretation among several others, and confusion results concerning of weather data for public use have been enhanced, the actual meaning of these cones (Broad, et al., 2007). problems still remain within the weather community In order to improve ªenvironmental literacyº within the that hinder progress of the discipline (Mass, 2005). general public, one must first decide how to disseminate Among these problems arises the necessity to optimally weather information optimally so that the largest convey weather information to the public in ways that audience, ideally everyone affected, may make correct the greatest number of citizens will understand in order decisions. to make potentially important decisions regarding life The study reported here focuses on predicting and property. In fact, the US government has relevant characteristics for understanding and reacting prioritized this issue with the ªEnhancement of to weather information based on demographic environmental literacy and improvement of information. With such statistics in hand, methods of understanding, value, and use of weather information releasing weather information to many demographically and services,º and as such, a probable result becomes specific groups may be crafted in order to effectively the mitigation of loss of life, property, and potential reach the most citizens. In addition to evaluating the reduction of economical damage (NOAA, 2005). interactions between demographics and public Reasonably, a more educated public would more likely reactions, we will start by examining the interaction make sound weather-related decisions based on between anxiety levels in the general public and information received. However, conveying information response to weather information. Several previous introduces new communications problems that must be studies have suggested a gender difference in levels of overcome. Information may be understood in a locally anxiety to a wide variety of stimuli: females cultural context, and multipleÐsometimes conflicting consistently tend to show greater levels of anxiety than Ðmeanings of weather terminology exist among males and tend to be more prone to anxiety disorders than males as shown in adolescents (Lewinsohn, et al., *Corresponding Author Address: Scott Powell, Rosenstiel School of 1998). Increased anxiety across genders is also Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 documented relating to academic performance Rickenbacker Cswy., Miami, FL 33149 (Pomerantz, et al., 2002), and in general as a function of Email: [email protected] gender while determining a three-way interaction between gender, stress, and social support with anxiety anxiety relating to receiving weather information, (Landman-Peeters, et al., 2005). In addition, particularly in severe weather situations? individuals with higher levels of anxiety may show tendency to better prepare for weather situations and 2) How do gender, age, race, state of residence, less tendency to ignore weather information. Citizens education level, and level of anxiety affect in some areas of the country may live in areas more a. Trust in weather information received prone to anxiety: levels of anxiety differ between rural b. Tendency to ignore weather information and urban environments (Diala, et al., 2003). In either c. Readiness and planning for severe weather case, people may be targeted accordingly based on d. Weather information©s influence on plans/daily predicted behaviors and reactions. activities Also, many people fail to accurately understand the e. Understanding of the difference between a meaning of weather terminology used in forecasts, severe weather ªwatchº and a ªwarningº resulting in a misinterpretation of messages that forecasters attempt to relay to the general public. 3) What do people think a severe weather ªwatchº or Recently, one-third of New Yorkers failed to correctly ªwarningº means? identify a 30 percent chance of rain as a probabilistic forecast (Gigerenzer, et al., 2005). If many people fail The selected demographic information is chosen for to define a 30 percent chance of rain, then they will analysis due to potential conclusions that may be made probably also be unable to adequately understand other from it. Geographically, some regions may contain a important weather terminology. In some cases, a larger number of individuals belonging to a certain misunderstanding could cause a life-threatening group that can be specifically targeted. For example, a situation: for example, if a resident hears a severe relatively high density of Asian Americans live in weather warning over the radio but confuses the portions of California, and several Native American definitions of watch and warning, the individual may groups reside in Oklahoma. Some communities may endanger themselves while in state of false security hold an unusually high number of older or younger caused by misinformation. Obviously, individuals, or a relatively large number of highly miscommunication between forecasters and the general educated individuals. Additionally, behavior may differ public may lead to unsound judgments in making based on one©s region of residence, regardless of other critical weather-related decisions: identification of demographic factors: Where severe weather occurs groups that maintain less knowledge of weather more frequently, residents may show a greater amount terminology may be targeted to improve understanding of knowledge relating to weather information and of forecasts, or terminology may be adjusted so that the severe weather planning. If for example, individuals in largest number of individuals receive useful and California know less about readiness for severe weather, understandable information. they may be targeted for education regarding potentially As part of a larger study, a questionnaire was given life-saving planning techniques. With enough data, to residents in the southwestern United States regarding many such conclusions may be made for specifically how they receive, use, react to, and understand weather targeted groups across the area examined in this study. information: This paper evaluates people©s uses and understandings. Ideally, conclusions obtained through 2. Methodology the questionnaire data will ultimately allow for targeting of particular and specific groups in order to effectively a. Sample disperse and communicate weather information to the largest possible population. The following research 769 participants responded to the survey. Due to questions are advanced for the study: the exploratory nature of the survey design, students enrolled in a research methods class recruited 1) Do gender and other demographic categories affect participants via a snowball sample, mostly in California, Oklahoma, and Texas. Participants 1.0. All items with a factor loading of at least 0.50 on a volunteered demographic information including gender, 50/30 Purity Criteria Index were included in the age, race, current state of residence, any prior states of appropriate dimension. For each participant, scores for residence, education level, medical insurance status, each item in a dimension were then summed into a and listed disabilities if applicable. Table A1 provides a single composite score for that dimension, which was breakdown of participants by selected demographic used for analysis. Individuals who did not respond to categories. Note that percentages may not equal 100% all items in a dimension were excluded in analysis to due to some respondents not answering all items. avoid artificially low scores: a missing value in a composite score would be treated as a zero if included. b. Survey Instrument 3. Results The questionnaire was a paper-pencil survey consisting of four sections. The first section contained Questionnaire data was inputted into a spreadsheet items concerning ways people react to and use weather and analyzed in SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social information; responses in this section were scaled from Sciences) v.15.0. Dependent variables match with 1 (disagree) to 7 (agree). Section Two asked dimensions obtained through factor analysis, and each participants how often they received their weather data dimension contains two to five survey items as seen in from various sources in ordinary weather situations and Table A2. Below lists the demographic information again in severe weather situations. The third section used as independent variables for the analysis. In included items mostly involving a relationship between parentheses are the names of the independent variables people©s senses and weather:
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