The Political Situation Over the Last Quarter of 2009 Was Mainly Deter- Mined by the Political Acts Undertaken by GERB in Its Capacity of a Gov- Erning Party

The political situation over the last quarter of 2009 was mainly determined by the political acts undertaken by GERB in its capacity of a governing party. This quarter also saw the completion of the first 100 days of the government’s term of office, which made observers, proponents and opponents strike various balances and give rise to different assessments. The high level of public support for the government after its first hundred days in office has been preserved as an ongoing tendency. What can be observed at the same time, however, are the first genuine symptoms of disillusionment as well, which is mainly connected with the economic situation in the country and the deepening crisis.

Over the last quarter of 2009 the “Attack” Party lived up to its recently gained reputation of being the most loyal and consistent supporter of the GERB Party and its government. A proof to this effect is the support extended by Volen Siderov’s party to Yordanka Fandakova – the candidate of GERB at the mayor’s by-election in the capital city. At the same time, a number of local party structures continued to express enhanced discontent with the policy pursued by their leader, Volen Siderov.

After the BSP Congress, at which Sergei Stanishev was re-elected leader of the party, the situation of internal party differences and conflicts has actually deepened. Despite Stanishev’s re-election, his legitimacy and the confidence rating he enjoys among the broad electorate and rank-and-file party membership have increasingly been shrinking. 4/2009 1

Table of Contents

Table of Contents...... 1 1. The Political Situation...... 2 2. Situation Of The Political Parties And Development Of The Party System In Bulgaria...... 4 2.1. The GERB Party...... 4 2.2. The Blue Coalition...... 5 2.3. The “Attack” Party...... 7 2.4. The “Law, Legality, and Justice” Party (OLJ)...... 8 2.5. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)...... 10 2.6. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)...... 11 3. Public Opinion ...... 13 4. Major Conclusions And Forecasts ...... 14 2 4/2009

1. The Political Situation genuine symptoms of disillusionment as well, which is mainly connected with the The political situation over the last quarter economic situation in the country and the of 2009 was mainly determined by the po- deepening crisis. litical acts undertaken by GERB in its capac- The most important task facing the ity of a governing party. This quarter also government was to draft the republican saw the completion of the first 100 days budget for the next calendar year. The aim of the government’s term of office, which of the macroeconomic framework pro- made observers, proponents and oppo- posed by the Cabinet was to guarantee the nents strike various balances and gave rise financial stability of the country and create to different assessments. genuine prerequisites conducive for the The opposition was particularly critical country’s overcoming the current econom- in its evaluations, and its general assess- ic crisis. At least this is the claim made by ment for the first hundred days of the Cabi- the Minister of Finance, Simeon Dyankov. net headed by Boiko Borissov was voiced in He reckons that in the middle of next year an entirely negative tone. The BSP declared the country will start to slowly and gradu- that GERB had failed to take any real mea- ally come out of the crisis. sures for curbing the economic crisis and At its first reading, the draft govern- was launching instead PR campaigns, thus ment budget tabled by the Cabinet was behaving as if the party was still waging its passed with no deliberations whatsoever election campaign. in the plenary hall of Parliament, because The right-wing parties, which support the opposition left the plenary session as the government, were more sparing in a sign of disagreement with the entire ex- voicing their assessments. The Blue Coali- penditure side of the budget. The opposition insisted on a stronger governmental tion, however, was present at the second commitment with respect to curbing the reading voting procedure and launched consequences of the economic crisis and sharp critical remarks against the govern- yet again said that they were ready to lend ment for having tabled a right-wing bud- their support and expert assistance to both get, which holds the potential of bringing the government and the governing parlia- about a social crisis because of its strongly mentary majority. restricted expenditure side, curbing first The “Attack” Party was the one which and foremost the social expenditures the gave the highest assessment in relation government is expected to make. with the first hundred days of the GERB Next year’s budget envisages a deficit Cabinet in office. The main reason for the of BGN 2.58 billion in the current account content expressed by “Attack” concerns of the national budget, compared to BGN the dedicated commitment of the GERB 3.58 billion deficit of the current account Party to investigate the activities of the in 2009. The direct foreign investments previous tri-partite governing coalition. In forecast for next year amount to BGN 3.3 the opinion of the “Attack” Party, the first billion (or 10.2 per cent of the Gross Do- charges brought up against representa- mestic Product), given the fact that the tives of the previous government indicate expected amount of investments for the that GERB has the political will to bring the current year stands at BGN 3 billion (or 9.2 combat against corruption and organized per cent of the GDP). The budget forecast crime to a successful end. for the 2010 revenues stands at BGN 26.39 The high level of public support for billion or 41.6 per cent, compared to the the government after its first hundred BGN 25.96 billion (or 40.7 per cent of the days in office has been preserved as an GDP) for the current year. ongoing tendency. What can be observed The macroeconomic framework of the at the same time, however, are the first budget also envisages an increase of the 4/2009 3 minimum monthly social contribution con- sult, the members of the Supreme Judicial cerning the self-employed from BGN 260 to Council accepted the resignations of its BGN 420. The maximum monthly amount members Stoiko Stoev and Ivan Dimov, and for which social security contributions will those of several law-court administrative be paid remains at the level of BGN 2,000. leaders, such as Dora Chineva, Angel An- The minimum and maximum levels of the gelov, and Plamen Naidenov, who handed unemployment benefits remain unchanged in their resignations precisely on account of – BGN 120 and BGN 240 respectively. The their contacts with Krassimir Georgiev. The budget envisages a 2.5 per cent decline of three administrative leaders, however, will the employment rate as well, and the ex- function in the capacity of ordinary judges pectations are for the unemployment rate and prosecutors respectively for another to reach 11.4 per cent. The minimum wage month, until the Supreme Judicial Council has also preserved its 2009 level and will makes a decision whether disciplinary pro- stand at BGN 240 throughout 2010, too. ceedings will be filed against them. The macroeconomic framework of the Upon further investigation of the case 2010 government budget tabled by the in point it became clear that Krassimir GERB Cabinet is indicative of the optimistic Georgiev has also had contacts with poli- expectations, which the governing major- ticians from the former tri-partite govern- ity entertains with respect to the economic ing coalition. situation in the course of the coming year. Another major event, which shaped Should these optimistic forecasts for the up the development of the political situ- budget indicators fail to materialize, how- ation in the country, were the local by- ever, this will have an adverse impact on elections of municipality mayors in differ- the revenue side of budget. ent regions, whereby the local by-elec- The political situation was also affect- tion for a Sofia City mayor legitimately ed by the implications of one of the big- occupied the center stage in this process. gest rows thus far concerning the judiciary The election campaign in the capital city branch of power in the country. The row was sluggish and boring and this was is connected with revelations stemming mainly due to the expectations that the from certain appointments of administra- runner-up from the GERB Party, Yordanka tive heads to the various law-courts and Fandakova, would win a landslide victory prosecutor’s offices in the judicial system here, as she actually did. all over the country as a result of the lob- The exacerbation of relations between byist activities among some of the mem- President Georgi Parvanov and Prime Min- bers of the Supreme Judicial Council by a ister Boiko Borissov provoked strong po- person totally unknown so far of the name litical reverberations. In a number of his of Krassimir Georgiev, who became popu- public appearances, President Parvanov lar in the public environment under the voiced critical remarks against the govern- nickname of Krassyo the Black. Printouts ment, which were promptly countered by of Krassimir Georgiev’s telephone conver- Borissov’s response. The relations between sations indicate that he repeatedly talked the two got especially aggravated when with representatives of the Supreme Judi- the Cabinet demanded that the Bulgarian cial Council and other magistrates, who ambassadors in Turkey and the USA be re- afterwards were appointed as adminis- called on account of infringements com- trative leaders of various law-courts and mitted during the general election polling prosecutor’s offices. procedure in these respective countries. As soon as this information was made Initially, President Parvanov refused to sign public, it provoked an enormous row, the recall decrees. This is the reason why which seriously undermined the image DSB and the “Attack” Party raised a de- of the Supreme Judicial Council. As a remand for the impeachment of the Presi- 4 4/2009

dent. At first, GERB and Boiko Borissov has confirmed GERB’s domination in Bul- also supported this idea, but subsequently garian politics for yet another time. the Prime Minister and his party withdrew What has been observed over the past this support. Finally, both DSB and the “At- quarter is the increasingly larger concentra- tack” Party gave up their initiative, because tion of power in the hands of Boiko Boriss- there was no legal ground whatsoever for ov. At the time being he has unconditional officially tabling and setting in motion such command over the Cabinet, the party, and an impeachment procedure. its parliamentary faction. Despite the fact After a meeting held between President that his government is actually a minor- Parvanov and Prime Minister Borissov, the ity government, Borissov seems to have relations between the two seem to have found an effective mechanism for political been smoothed over for the time being, but control, capable of exerting pressure over it is quite possible for new differences to oc- his partners from the right-wing political cur between them in the foreseeable future. environment. Borssov has been employing a single major argument with respect to 2. Situation Of The Political Parties his partners, namely: his frequent publicly And Development Of The Party made threats that should they fail to sup- System In Bulgaria port him, he was ready to provoke an early general election. 2.1. The GERB Party The media appearances of Prime Min- Over the past quarter, the GERB Party ister Boiko Borissov create the impression managed to consolidate its political and of a politician who is in a situation of an party domination within the Bulgarian ongoing election campaign. For the time party system. At the local by-elections, being this works effectively and brings held to elect new mayors of municipali- success to the Prime Minister, but in fu- ties, the mayors of which were returned ture he has to make recourse to genuine to Parliament after the June 2009 general actions, if he really wants to preserve the election, GERB won a convincing victory. level of public support he has been enjoy- As expected, the GERB candidate for the ing thus far. It is in this sense that the po- capital city mayor’s seat, Yordanka Fanda- lice actions crowned with the arrest of a kova, won a straight victory at the first big criminal gang that for a long time has leg of elections, without any of the famil- been in the business of kidnapping, rob- iar run-offs, with 66 per cent of the votes, beries, and other crimes, is a genuine suc- against the nearly 27 per cent of the bal- cess for the Prime Minister and his Minis- lots cast for the BSP candidate, Georgi ter of Interior. Kadiev. In the town of Vratza, the GERB During the past three months, Prime candidate, Doctor Kostadin Shakhov, Minister Borissov had to effect some emerged victorious at the mayor’s elec- changes in his Cabinet. After Yordanka tion, and again it was GERB candidates Fandakova was elected Sofia City Mayor, who won the mayor’s elections in the Boiko Borissov appointed Sergei Ignatov, towns of Razlog and Pravetz, Krassimir formerly Fandakova’s Deputy Minister, Gerchev and Nickola Nittov respectively. to succeed her at the post of Minister of Representatives of the GERB Party ex- Education, Youth, and Science. Ignatov pressed their satisfaction with the election shouldered the ambitious task of reform- outcomes. Boiko Borissov declared that the ing higher education in the country and ballots cast for GERB were the most elo- is currently drafting a new Higher Educa- quent assessment of the country’s citizens tion Bill. The major objective of the en- about the first hundred days in office of visaged amendments is to grant a higher the new government. In his opinion, the level of autonomy to the universities and success of his party at the local by-elections to introduce an overall reform in the sys- 4/2009 5 tem of awarding academic and research independent energy policy, despite the sub- degrees and titles. stantial Russian investments in the Bulgarian The appointment of a new Minister of energy sector of the economy. At the same Foreign Affairs will be shortly effected as time, Borissov reiterated his reservations well. The incumbent Minister, Roumyana with respect to the Bourgas – Alexandrou- Zheleva, who was nominated by the GERB polis project. Party as the future Bulgarian European Commissioner, was given the portfolio of 2.2. The Blue Coalition Commissioner for international coopera- In November, one of the constituent par- tion, humanitarian aid, and response at ties of the Blue Coalition, the Union of times of emergencies. Roumyana Zheleva Democratic Forces (UDF), held its regular said that this was a good portfolio in the National Conference, on the territory of large area of building a common European which there was a clash of the positions of foreign policy. In her opinion, now that the the UDF leader, Martin Dimitrov, and the Lisbon Treaty has come into effect, the Eu- internal party opposition, embodied by the ropean Union will pursue a common Euro- Sofia City UDF organization. The Sofia UDF pean foreign policy and the post she was organization voiced once again its criticism offered will contribute to the new foreign of their party’s coalition with Democrats policy role of the EU. for Strong Bulgaria (DSB), because it was The fact that this portfolio was given ineffective and harmful for the UDF. Mar- to Bulgaria provoked the opposition to tin Dimitrov expressed his counter-thesis launch criticism against Boiko Borissov’s that this coalition was the right way of es- government. The Chairman of the BSP and tablishing actual interaction between and former Prime Minister of the country, Ser- among the parties belonging to the tradi- gei Stanishev, qualified the post allocated tional political right wing in Bulgaria. to Roumyana Zheleva as “insignificant”. The National Conference of the UDF Stanishev criticized Borissov for not hav- adopted a political resolution as well. It ing nominated Meglena Kouneva, who says that the tri-partite coalition govern- enjoyed the unreserved confidence of the ment of the BSP, NMSP, and the MRF has European Commission during her term of imposed an oligarchic model of govern- office as a Commissioner for ConsumerA f- ing the country, the functioning of which fairs. In Stanishev’s opinion, had Kouneva is underlain by a number of corruption been the Bulgarian nomination, the coun- practices. This has placed the country in try would have been given a better com- a situation of a serious political and eco- missioner portfolio. nomic crisis. What is needed in order to In the meantime Roumyana Zheleva overcome the adverse consequences of was also elected Deputy Chairperson the former governance practices are both of the European People’s Party. This en- transparent policies and the cooperation hanced even further GERB’s position at the of the right-wing political parties. EPP and for yet another time confirmed Some amendments to the party stat- the high assessment the European Right ute were also introduced at the November Wing has given to the party currently gov- 2009 UDF National Conference, the focus erning Bulgaria. of which were mainly the provisions aimed As far as one of the most debatable is- at tightening the internal party discipline. sues related to the energy policy of Bulgaria Thus for instance, should a party member is concerned, Boiko Borissov announced that voice an anti-UDF opinion in the media envi- both projects – “Nabucco” and the “South ronment, the party leadership, other leader- Stream” could be developed in parallel and ship representatives, or the National Coun- in his opinion this was the way in which cil itself will be empowered to expel such Bulgaria would be capable of pursuing an a member from the party. Such an expel- 6 4/2009

ling will be legitimate, if the Control Coun- two thousand less. The primaries showed cil has issued an opinion to this effect and that the political line of the party imposed two thirds of the members of the National by Martin Dimitrov enjoys the support of Council have voted for it. The delegates to the party membership. Despite the growth the National Conference voted for another of the UDF membership in absolute terms, decision to the effect that the local party the political future of the UDF remains un- structures will also be entitled to a portion clear with a view to the increasingly stron- of the government subsidy granted to the ger dominating role, which Ivan Kostov party. The subsidy will be allocated between has come to play in the Blue Coalition. The the head office of the party and the district fact that the Blue Coalition decided not councils in a proportion endorsed by the to nominate a candidate of its own at the National Council. autumn by-elections for Sofia City mayor The amendments to the party statute can bring about the political effacement also envisage a specific duration of the or even obliteration of the two constituent term of holding the leadership post in the parties making up the Blue Coalition. This party, which cannot exceed two terms of could weaken and disillusion its electorate, office of 4 years each. Should, however, a which has traditionally been the strongest decision of the National Council be made in the capital city. To a large extent this pre- requiring an extension of this fixed term dominantly refers to DSB due to the fact of office, the party leader can continue to that the majority of the electorate support- function in this capacity for more than two ing Ivan Kostov’s party come from the capi- terms of office. tal city mainly. The 2009 UDF National Conference On the other hand, the Blue Coalition decided that the primaries for party leader has been entering the executive branch of would be held on November 29th. The pri- power increasingly more tangibly. Thus for maries were eventually won by the incum- instance, Constantin Dimitrov from DSB bent party leader, Martin Dimitrov, who was appointed Deputy Minister of Foreign was returned to the post with about 55 Affairs to replace Krassimir Kostov, who per cent of the votes cast. The rest of the handed in his resignation because of the candidates for the leadership post were: recent revelation that he used to be an the mayor of the “Vitosha” borough of agent working for the totalitarian State Se- the capital city, Lyuben Petrov, Roumen curity Services. Christov, who only a year ago was the ma- An important event of considerable jor opponent of Martin Dimitrov for the significance for the Blue Coalition and first leadership post, and the former UDF MP and foremost for DSB was the coming into Ivo Tzanev. effect of the Lisbon Treaty. Now that it is After the primaries, Lyuben Petrov re- finally in force, DSB will have a representa- mained second nation-wide with an out- tive of its own at the European Parliament, come of about 23 per cent of the votes. In namely Svetoslav Malinov, former DSB MP Sofia, however, Petrov won the primaries at the Bulgarian Parliament, who has been with the majority of the votes cast, where- waiting for this to happen ever since the as the outcome for Martin Dimitrov in the May 2009 MEP elections. capital city did not exceed a total of around After the row with the Supreme Judi- 30 per cent. cial Council, connected with the lobbyist The number of people eligible to vote activities of certain circles to promote cer- at the UDF primaries for party leader was tain appointments in the judicial branch 11,400 and this is actually the total num- of power, DSB tabled a motion for imple- ber of the UDF party membership as of menting reforms in the judiciary. One of today. A year earlier, the number of party these party proposals concerns the reduc- members who were eligible to vote was tion of the duration of the terms in of- 4/2009 7 fice of the heads of the Supreme Court ors elected on the “Attack” party slate. In of Cassation, the Supreme Administrative reply Valeri Simeonov declared that neither Court, and the Chief Prosecutor from 7 to he nor his colleagues have been elected 5 years. Because of the lobbyist row pre- by the leadership of the “Attack” Party or cisely, DSB has insisted on the replacement by Volen Siderov himself and if they owe of all members of the incumbent Supreme somebody a report accounting for their ac- Judicial Council. tivity, this somebody is their electorate. Another town in which the “Attack” 2.3. The “Attack” Party faction of municipal councilors split up is Over the last quarter of 2009 the “Attack” the town of Plovdiv. The faction leader, Party lived up to its recently gained repu- Todor Christev, who is also Deputy Chair- tation of being the most loyal and consis- man of the Municipal Council, and Elena tent supporter of the GERB Party and its Raicheva officially announced that they government. A proof to this effect is the were leaving the party and were becom- support extended by Volen Siderov’s party ing independent municipal councilors. to Yordanka Fandakova – the candidate The major reason underlying their act – in of GERB at the mayor’s by-election in the Todor Christev’s words – was their dis- capital city. agreement with the policy pursued by the At the same time, a number of local “Attack” leader Volen Siderov, who had party structures continued to express en- turned the party into “a family organiza- hanced discontent with the policy pur- tion striving for personal enrichment”. Ac- sued by their leader, Volen Siderov. Thus cording to Christev, in this way the party for instance, ten representatives out of the was heading towards the obliteration of 13-member “Attack” Party faction at the all ideas it had openly declared to uphold. Municipal Council in the town of Bourgas Christev also shared another reason for left the party faction to become indepen- his leaving the party as well – disapprov- dent municipal councilors. The major rea- al of the pressure exerted by the central son underlying their act and their leaving leadership of the party on the Plovdiv local the party altogether is their disagreement structure, the purpose of which was the with the unconditional support, extended re-orientation of the current cooperation by the “Attack” MPs and their leader Volen with the IMRO towards cooperation with Siderov to the GERB Party. the GERB Party. Valeri Simeonov, the leader of the group, Over the past few months, Volen Siderov which split up from the “Attack” municipal has been actively working on achieving prog- council faction, said that Siderov’s support ress on the issue of enhancing the interna- for the GERB Party is actually support for tional legitimacy of the “Attack” Party. This is the MRF as well, as thus far the government the reason why Siderov met Gianfranco Fini, has not sought any responsibility for the in- leader of the National Alliance centre-right fringements committed by the MRF and its party and President of the lower Chamber of leader, Ahmed Dogan. The “Attack” munic- Deputies at the Italian Parliament. After the ipal council faction in the town of Bourgas is meeting Siderov said that the Italian experi- currently made up of three “Attack” repre- ence could be especially useful for all Bulgar- sentatives only – councilors Dimo Groudev, ian parties as well. Deyan Stoikov, and Alexander Boyadjiiski. According to Volen Siderov, every time Leader of the newly established municipal general elections are held, there should council faction of the independent council- be an alignment of forces to the purpose ors is the journalist Valentin Kassabov. of preventing any scattering of votes. The The “Attack” Party leadership demand- Italian case – in Siderov’s opinion – indi- ed to receive a report accounting for the cates that such an alignment does not activities of the Bourgas municipal council- bring about any collapse of the individual 8 4/2009

party identity, because it is the party lead- Siderov, the subscription for the referen- ers precisely who defend the identity of dum was ready and what remains to be their parties. Siderov thinks that the Bul- done is to table the referendum motion garian political leaders, who currently in Parliament and put it to the respective support the GERB government, headed by voting procedure. In support of his mo- Boiko Borissov, will grow up and embrace tion for removing the Turkish language this idea, too. According to the “Attack” news from the air of the National Televi- leader, it is in this way that the consolida- sion, Siderov referred to the examples of tion of votes can be achieved, because it Germany and Switzerland. In his opinion, is clear that a single party is incapable of in these two countries it was accepted for “owning” the entire power in a country, the public media to broadcast only in the nor can it work without the assistance of official languages of these countries. This other like-minded parties. In the opinion did not preclude, however, the possibility of Volen Siderov, however large the sup- for broadcasts in Turkish to be aired by port which GERB has managed to muster regional or private mass media. at the general election, it is obvious that The initiative launched by the “Attack” Borissov needs other political forces in or- Party met the strong disapproval of the op- der to attain the priorities he has planned position, the Bulgarian President, and the to implement in the governance of the “Law, Legality, and Justice” Party headed country during his own term of office. by Yane Yanev. In the opinion of President The “Attack” Party launched an ini- Parvanov, holding a referendum on the is- tiative, which has been its long-standing sue of the Turkish language news broad- commitment and was included again in casts is a peripheral question and given the the party program for its 2009 general situation of an economic crisis, which the election campaign, namely: the removal country is currently going through, such of the Turkish language news from the an idea only aimed at distracting the at- broadcasts of the Bulgarian National Televi- tention of the society from other much sion. Volen Siderov declared that he stood more important issues. The Movement for for summoning a nation-wide referendum Rights and Freedoms said that they were on the issue concerning Turkish language determined to address the Constitutional news. Siderov announced this idea after a Court in connection with Siderov’s de- meeting he held with Prime Minister Boiko mand for referendum. Borissov in the presence of the President of After the negative reactions against such the National Assembly, Tsetzka Tsacheva. In a referendum voiced throughout this country the opinion of Boiko Borissov, this is a deli- and especially in the countries from the Eu- cate issue and has been subject to political ropean Union, Prime Minister Borissov gave speculations, and this was the reason why up the idea of holding a referendum on this it had to be solved in the most equitable particular subject, which has dealt a serious and democratic manner possible. Borissov blow on the prestige of the “Attack” Party. emphasized that the Bulgarian Constitu- tion explicitly states that the official lan- 2.4. The “Law, Legality, and Justice” guage in this country is Bulgarian. In his Party (OLJ) opinion, each minority in the country could The past quarter was particularly dra- demand that it be allotted some media time matic for the OLJ Party. In the middle of for broadcasts in Armenian or Hebrew, and December, the OLJ parliamentary faction, the Roma population also had the right to led by Yane Yanev, disintegrated, having insist for news in their own language. been officially left by its member, MP Referendum in Bulgaria can be orga- Mario Tagarinsky. The reason why is the nized on the initiative of one fifth of the fact that before Tagarisnky’s resignation Members of Parliament. According to from the OLJ, the party’s parliamentary 4/2009 9 faction was made up by 10 MPs, which is for the incumbent government. This means the absolute minimum for the existence that these six top government officials have of any parliamentary faction. According signed under untrue facts and information to the by-laws of the incumbent National in their declarations for lack of conflict of Assembly, new parliamentary factions interests. What Yanev specifically means are – different from those registered at the the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Roumyana Central Electoral Commission – cannot Zheleva, the Minister of Education, Youth, be set up, and an MP cannot be member and Science, Sergei Ignatov, the Minister of of more than one parliamentary faction. Finance, Simeon Dyankov, the Minister of Despite this limitation, the OLJ leader Environment and Waters, Nona Karadjova, made a forecast that by the end of the the Minister of Culture, Vezhdi Rashidov, term of office of the 41st National Assem- and the Minister of Regional Development bly, his parliamentary faction would con- and Public Works, Rossen Plevneliev. sist of about 25 – 30 MPs. Yane Yanev’s The representatives of the OLJ Party optimism is prompted by the pending de- voiced their poignant reactions against cision, which the Constitutional Court is the disintegration of their parliamentary shortly expected to make, with respect to faction. MP Dimitar Abadgjiev’s accusa- these texts precisely, which have recently tions against the GERB Party were the been laid down in the by-laws of the in- most extreme. He said that Borissov’s party cumbent National Assembly on the initia- “was acting as a junta” and was making tive of the governing majority. attempts to impose its single-party gov- On the other hand, the OLJ leader said ernance over the entire country. MP Ata- that a parliamentary faction should be nas Semov spoke much in the same vein, made up by a minimum of 8 MPS, because mentioning that as far as he could see, only 209 MPs have been returned to Par- the country was heading towards a single- liament by virtue of the proportional vote handed form of governance. system. It is in this connection that at the Mario Tagarinsky motivated his deci- National Assembly Yanev tabled a mo- sion to leave the OLJ parliamentary faction tion containing a text, which Parliament is by pointing out his disagreement with the asked to vote, concerning an amendment opportunistic policy pursued by the party to the parliamentary by-laws making it pos- and its leader, Yane Yanev. In Tagarinsky’s sible for eight MPs to be able to establish a opinion, the party has become strongly parliamentary faction of their own. personified and is being driven by unclear In the opinion of Yane Yanev, it is Boiko objectives and vague principles, frequently Borissov who – willingly or not – lurks be- prompted by temporary situations and by hind the act of Tararinsky’s leaving the OLJ considerations formulated on the spur of parliamentary faction. Yanev threatened the moment. Tagarinsky refuted Yanev’s that the OLJ supporters would launch pro- accusations that he had been put under test actions all over the country, unless the pressure and emphasized that his decision OLJ parliamentary faction was restored in to leave the OLJ parliamentary faction was due time. Yane Yanev substantiated his “a well considered act”. suspicion that Borissov was behind the par- After the disintegration of the OLJ parliamentary attack against his party with the liamentary faction, the party lost the posts following explanation: In his capacity of it had been allocated in the various parlia- Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee mentary committees and was deprived of on Conflict of Interests, Yanev intended to the post of one of the Deputy Speakers of voice information that facts existed about the National Assembly, which thus far was the incompatibility of six ministers of Bo- occupied by Atanas Semov. rissov’s Cabinet with the office they were As early as the beginning of October, appointed to at the date Parliament voted the OLJ Party gave its first signals that it in- 10 4/2009

tended to change its stance with respect to functioned in different capacities: the for- the support it was extending to the GERB mer was Mayor of the town of Doulovo, Party. The nomination of architect Pavel and the latter was regional Chairman of Popov as the OLJ candidate for Sofia City the MRF in the town of Silistra. One of Mayor at the local by-elections was made the scandalous cases, which has been precisely with this intention in mind. Yane connected with the name of Tabackov, Yanev said that his party was nominating is the project for the sewerage system of a technocrat, capable of being an alter- the town of Doulovo, which was awarded native to the rest of the politically bound funding from the EU Environmental Oper- candidates for mayor. At the day of the by- ational Program to the amount of BGN 37 election, Architect Popov won 2.8 per cent million. The project was won by the Jem- of the electoral votes. my Company, the commercial director of which is Sali Tabackov, brother of Mithat 2.5. The Movement for Rights and Tabackov. It is because of this case that Freedoms (MRF) Mithat Tabackov has been investigated Over the past three months, one of the for a criminal offense qualified as abuse topics amply exploited in the public envi- of office. The Prosecutor’s Office said that ronment was connected with the hypothe- the Jemmy Company has won the com- sis about the existence of a tacit agreement petition in contradiction to the Public Pro- between the GERB Party and the MRF, the curement Act. purpose of which was to prevent the pos- Tabackov is subject to another criminal sibility of pressing any charges against rep- investigation as well, where Gyunai Sepher resentatives of Dogan’s party and prevent is also among the suspects. One of Sep- the possible investigation of the notorious her’s companies was awarded a public pro- circles around the MRF. The reasons under- curement contract for the construction of lying the existence of such doubts are that a road from the village of Okorsh, Doulovo GERB focused its efforts at auditing the ac- Municipality, to the highway connecting tivities of the previous government on the the towns of Shoumen and Silistra. BSP only, touching a little on NMSP as well, Of particular importance for the MRF but omitting the MRF altogether. over the past quarter was the regular ses- This hypothesis, however, proved to sion of the party Congress. It is the Congress be somewhat unsubstantiated, because that struck the balance of the party’s par- charges were pressed against representa- ticipation in the governance of the country tives of the MRF, too. The Prosecutor’s Of- for two consecutive terms of office or over fice pressed these charges against the MRF the last eight years. And it is the Congress MPs Gyunai Sepher and Mithat Tabackov. again that also outlined the prospects for Both have been accused of document the future development of the party and fraud involving especially large amounts of the challenges it is currently facing. money. The qualification of their charges is In his address to the Congress, the par- grave infringements of the public procure- ty Chairman, Ahmed Dogan, said that the ment procedures concerning the construc- project envisaging the development of the tion of road and water sewerage systems. MRF did not contain any referral to its con- The MPs were deprived of their parliamen- solidation as a leader’s party, but – unfor- tary immunity and the remand measures tunately – this subsequently turned out to imposed on them are freedom against the be the actual political fact. He pointed out daily obligation to sign in person at the the need of a reform in the party, because police station, as well as the restriction to otherwise it could start lagging behind leave the country. the dynamic development of the general Before Tabackov and Sepher got re- processes, which were taking place in the turned to Parliament in June 2009, they country. “Bulgaria lacks a functioning civil 4/2009 11 society, therefore the transition cannot be 2.6. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) said to be completed yet”, is what Dogan In the last three months of 2009, the also pointed out in his report before the BSP failed to produce any clear-cut and Congress. In his opinion, “according to all meaningful political assessment concern- commonly accepted political criteria, the ing the reasons underlying the loss of Cabinet of Sergei Stanishev is a successful the June 2009 general election. Instead, one, and as far as the economic indicators the internal party in-fighting exacerbated are concerned, it is the most effective gov- even further and this, in fact, is the ma- ernment of the Bulgarian transition”. Ac- jor reason for the lack of such a clear-cut cording to Dogan, Bulgaria is lacking a na- analysis and in-depth assessment. tional vision both with respect to its overall And yet, what could also be observed development as a country and its place in the party during the last quarter of within the European Union, and this is a 2009 was a period of relative consolida- major problem hampering its future devel- tion, especially at the time of the mayor’s opment at large. local by-elections held in the capital city. In his speech, Dogan also touched Initially, the party leader, Sergei Stanishev, upon the issue of Turkey’s EU member- did not second the nomination of Georgi ship. In his opinion, “the road of the Euro- Kadiev in the capacity of a candidate for pean Union towards itself and the global mayor of the Left, because he saw in him world goes by large through the Darda- a rival for his own leadership post. Sub- nelles and Chanakkale. Because it is in sequently, however, Stanishev came to Chanakkale and the Dardanelles that the openly back Kadiev up in the name of the new historical matrix of the new toler- inherent BSP interests. ance and the new European identity has Despite the fact that Georgi Kadiev and been laid down – this is the philosophy the BSP failed to achieve their major objec- of synthesis of both values and cultures. tive, namely to compete with the runner- It is here that the outcome and key to the up at the run-offs of the mayor’s by-elec- salvation of the new global and multi-cul- tions, the outcome for Kadiev at this local tural world has been hidden”. by-election exceeded the result scored by Despite Dogan’s yet another declara- the BSP candidate, Brigo Asparukhov, at tion that he intended to withdraw from the previous 2007 regular local elections. his post in the near future, he was unani- This outcome consolidated Kadiev’s mously re-elected leader of the party by positions in the party and he is now turn- the delegates to the Congress by means of ing into a political figure of a nation-wide an open hand-raising voting procedure. significance, capable of mobilizing a wid- The MRF won the mayor’s seats in seve- er circle of voters by virtue of the purely ral settlements of the country at the local majority vote ballot procedure. This man- by-elections held at the end of October. Is- ner of proceeding according to majority mail Osman from the MRF is the new mayor vote approach is entirely in tune with the of the Rouen Municipality, having won the very understanding Kadiev shares about elections without a run-off at the first leg the development of the BSP. During his of the elections with a total of 52.55 per election campaign he claimed that the cent of the votes. The MRF also won the BSP should turn into an all-encompassing mayor’s seat in the Stambolovo Municipal- party, aspiring to attract a broad circle of ity, Haskovo District. The MRF candidate, voters, not only voters from the socially Mandadjid Mandadja, was elected with underprivileged strata of society and the 87.8 per cent of the votes. The GERB can- working class. didate, Gospodin Gospodinov, remained As a whole, the BSP gave a positive as- second with 8.23 per cent of the votes. sessment to the outcome from the Sofia mayor’s by-elections and declared that the 12 4/2009

predictions of all the doomsayers about the ingly more realistic and quite feasible with early death of the party are premature and a view to the resources she avails of – both totally unsubstantiated. political and economic. A party established At the same time, according to its pre- according to her vision would probably be liminary plan, the BSP held a session of more left-wing oriented than the current its Party Congress. On a motion tabled by orientation of the BSP, and what Doncheva Sergei Stanishev, an election for leader relies on is predominantly social populism. of the party was carried out. Unlike the A re-grouping of forces has been ob- previous Congress, when Stanishev was served after the end of the BSP Congress. elected with nearly 90 per cent of the bal- Stanishev consolidated his positions at the lots cast by the delegates, this time his vic- central leadership, but at the same time tory was significantly less convincing. The has been increasingly losing his legitimacy number of delegates who voted in favor among the rank-and-file members of the of Stanishev was 455, or 54 per cent of party and its electorate. Signature figures the overall number of votes, amounting to of the BSP, such as Roumen Petkov and 830 in total. The other candidates for the Roumen Ovcharov, are no longer mem- leadership post were: Yanaki Stoilov, Mlad- bers of the Executive Bureau of the party. en Chervenyakov, and Tatyana Doncheva. No longer, however, is member of the Ex- It is Doncheva that ranks second in terms ecutive Bureau Kiril Dobrev, too, who is of ballots cast – 129 delegates gave their considered to belong to the circle close votes for her. The leader of the “Left Wing” to President Parvanov. Dobrev was one within the BSP, Yanaki Stoilov, got the sup- of the faces who was established to have port of 99 delegates, while Chervenyakov had telephone contacts with the lobbyist got the votes of 78 delegates in total. from the town of Pleven, Krassimir Geor- Stanishev used some very poignant giev, on account of whom the row in the words while addressing the situation in the judiciary broke up. party in his speech before the Congress. The last quarter of 2009 saw Sergei He criticized the conduct of his party com- Stanishev being stripped from his parlia- rades, whose excessive ambitions for the mentary immunity, so that the Prosecutor’s leadership post had dented the image of Office could hold investigations in connec- the party in society rather than improve tion with the leaks of classified information it. Admitting past mistakes, Stanishev said from the National Security Agency. The oc- he regretted that two years ago he failed casion for this accusation was a statement to release Roumen Ovcharov and Roumen made by Alexei Petrov, former official at Petkov from the party leadership right after the National Security Agency, according he had released them from their ministerial to whom Stanishev had received a secret posts of Minister of Economy and Minister report on corruption in the high corridors of Interior respectively. of power, but failed to return the report to After the Congress, Tatyana Doncheva the Security Services. said that she was ready to set up a new The Prosecutor’s Office also pressed party. In her opinion, the incumbent lead- charges against the former Minister of La- ership of the BSP embodied by Sergei bor and Social Policy, Emilia Maslarova, for Stanishev was leading the party to its to- abuses and embezzlement carried out at tal demise, whereas the left-wing voters the ministry she headed. Maslarova gave in the country needed a strong left-wing up her parliamentary immunity herself to party. For his part, Roumen Ovcharov de- the purpose of cooperating with the ju- clared that Stanishev was merely a care- dicial authorities. She announced that in taker leader of the party. the course of the investigation it would Tatyana Doncheva’s claim for establish- be proven that she was innocent and all ing a new left-wing party is looking increas- charges against her were unsubstantiated. 4/2009 13

The governing majority held a parlia- in terms of her personal approval rating on mentary vote for the removal of Maslarova the basis of the responses given by the citi- from the post of Chairperson of the parlia- zens subject to the opinion poll survey. The mentary committee on social policy, which positive attitude to Fandakova has grown she was heading at that time. The BSP op- by 10 per cent and now her approval rating posed this act of the governing majority stands at 38 per cent. Whether this high ap- and in protest withdrew its representatives proval rating will be preserved depends on from the various parliamentary commit- how well she performs in the capacity of a tees. The BSP also addressed the Constitu- Sofia City Mayor, because the management tional Court on account of this particular of the capital city is yet to experience a se- decision, because – in the opinion of the ries of serious tests. BSP representatives – it contradicted the The local by-elections have had a posi- Constitution of the country. tive impact on the approval rating not only Stanishev said that the country was of the GERB winner in the race for the seat heading towards a form of single-handed of Sofia City Mayor, but on the approval governance without any separation of rating of her opponent from the BSP. powers whatsoever. In his opinion, Borissov Georgi Kadiev has marked an 8 per cent has been exerting unprecedented pressure increase of his approval rating, which now on the Prosecutor’s Office, which might re- stands at 19 per cent altogether, which is sult in political reprisals. the same as the percentage of the approval As far as the situation in the country is rating, which the leader of his party, Sergei concerned, the BSP received the support of Stanishev, is currently enjoying. the Party of European Socialists. PES repre- The top rating of the best politicians sentatives shared their concern on account looks unchanged: first comes the Prime of the attitude demonstrated towards the Minister, followed by the President. Boiko BSP. The reaction of the PES Chairman, Borissov, however, lost 7 per cent of his Paul Rasmussen, was provoked by a rep- rating in December and now the people’s artee made by Boiko Borissov to the effect confidence he enjoys stands at 65 per cent. that a party such as the BSP, which in the The decline is sizable but easy to explain, past made recourse to terrorism, should be because the wave of approval after the put under permanent ban rather than take general election has started to subside and the liberty of criticizing the government. is getting gradually replaced by the chal- langes of real politics. The decline is much 3. Public Opinion more tangible with respect to the two deputy prime ministers in the Cabinet, i.e. In the past three months, the confidence Tsvetan Tsvetanov, where the decline is by rating of the GERB Cabinet retained its 4 percent in comparison with November high level and the leading figures of this and now stands at 43 per cent, and Sime- party have come to top all opinion poll rat- on Dyankov, where the decline amounts ings in the country. Nonetheless, in com- to 9 per cent and his rating now stands at parison with the previous months, a certain 21 per cent, which can be qualified as a decline in this confidence rating has been substantial drop of the rating he previously observed. Most likely this ensues from fact enjoyed. Apart from the objective factors, that the GERB Party has begun to experi- such as the restrictions characteristic of a ence the sting of its first real-life encounters time of crisis, Dyankov’s shrinking rating is with the challenges of actual governance. connected to a large extent with some of An opinion poll survey held by the “Me- his hasty statements, which were met with diana” Agency indicates that the new Sofia a widely ranging disapproval. City Mayor, Yordanka Fandakova, is the poli- The largest loss of confidence has tician who has marked the greatest progress been observed with respect to the OLJ 14 4/2009

leader, Yane Yanev. In comparison with in a number of settlements throughout the November, Yanev lost 13 per cent of his country. Especially important for the GERB rating in December and now it stands at Party were the elections held in the capi- 21 per cent only. tal city, Sofia, where the landslide election The leader of the “Attack” Party, Volen result gave additional political self-confi- Siderov, also lost 5 per cent of the confidence to the winning GERB Party, although dence he previously enjoyed, and now his the outcome from these elections was no confidence rating stands at 20 per cent. secret to anyone well in advance. Despite the fact that the GERB govern- Despite GERB’s second electoral suc- ment enjoys a high degree of confidence, cess this year, though, the past quarter saw the assessments about the performance some slump in the level of confidence the of Borissov’s Cabinet are more or less con- government enjoys, especially on account tradictory. A survey held by the Alpha Re- of its actual performance. The underly- search Agency indicates the following: 55 ing reasons for the declining confidence per cent of the Bulgarian citizens share the are connected with its governance prac- conviction that the government has been tices and the deepening economic crisis doing things, which are both genuine and throughout the country. This is the reason specific, connected with the improvement why the major challenge which GERB will of the situation in Bulgaria. On the other be facing over the coming months, is the hand, 44 per cent of the respondents think party’s capacity to curb the consequences that Borissov’s Cabinet is merely promising of the economic crisis and mitigate its ef- to do certain things, but no actual work has fect on the ordinary citizens mostly. been done for the promises to come true. For the time being, the GERB Party is The Alpha Research survey also indicates enjoying a comfortable majority at the Bul- that 71 per cent of the respondents share garian Parliament. But given the fact that the opinion that genuine reforms must be the economic crisis could deepen even fur- carried out in order to bring about a rise in ther, the future might see some shifts in the the standard of living. And this is precisely political layers and a possible re-orientation what the priority of the GERB government in the attitudes of the parliamentary repre- should be, according to the majority of the sented political forces. citizens of the country. On the whole, the The increasingly closer approchement voters are inclined to be skeptical as re- between GERB and the “Attack” Party gards the possibility for curbing the levels could bring about adverse consequences of corruption in the country, and a mere for the GERB Party from the point of view 15 per cent of them think that combating of its international political relations. corruption will yield positive results in the 2. The Blue Coalition, which at the be- foreseeable future. ginning of the GERB term of office was a As far as the performance of the po- critic of the government in certain areas, lice forces is concerned, only 11 per cent now has been lending the governing ma- of the respondents claim that they feel jority its increasingly stronger support. The more secure and better protected after relations between GERB and the Blue Co- the new government took the reins of alition are entering a new stage of closer power in the country. cooperation and political bonding. The appointment of Konstantin Dimitrov from 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts DSB to the post of Deputy Minister of For- eign Affairs indicates that the Blue Coali- 1. The GERB Party has consolidated its po- tion is getting an increasingly more tangible litical domination on the electoral field, foothold in the governance of the country. and a proof to this effect is the outcome of This trend is likely to continue, especially the local by-elections for the mayor seats given the fact that the OLJ party has now 4/2009 15 withdrawn its support for the GERB gov- National Television, has an ulterior motive ernment. Other such appointments are as well. It actually aims at solving certain likely to happen in the future and this will internal party contradictions. The growing again confirm the trend towards a closer discontent of a number of local structures cooperation mentioned above. of the “Attack” Party with respect to the The relations between the two major policy pursued by Volen Siderov is becom- constituent parties of the Blue Coalition – ing an increasingly stronger threat for the the UDF and DSB – have not marked any party unity. The rising danger of the politi- substantial changes. The Blue Coalition cal effacement of the ”Attack” Party as a parties observe and adhere to the coalition consequence of its support for the GERB agreement signed between them, but at governing majority, without any actual par- the same time each one of them is pursu- ticipation in the governance of the country, ing its own strategy as well. is compelling Siderov to look for the ma- Having won the primaries, held for the terialization of his pre-election promises election of a UDF leader, as early as the in order to make his support for the GERB first leg of this election, Martin Dimitrov government and Borissov’s Cabinet in par- consolidated his internal party positions ticular legitimate in the eyes of the “At- as well as the coalition line he has been tack” members and electorate. pursuing with respect to his relations with 4. The disintegration of the parliamen- DSB. In this way, the internal party op- tary faction of the OLJ will have an adverse position embodied by the Sofia City UDF impact on the further development of this organization failed to materialize its long- party. The resources of power, which thus sought objectives connected with the in- far the party availed of through its repre- tention to change the course of the party, sentatives in key parliamentary committees which its leader has been pursuing over and is now stripped from, deprive this po- the past year. litical formation of access to wider publici- What can be observed in connection ty, whereby it could acquaint its supporters with DSB is Ivan Kostov’s increasingly grow- with its actions and decisions. The limita- ing impact and grip on the party. Being an tion of this access can bring about a de- experienced politician, Kostov is well aware clining level of public attention to the OLJ of the weight his party has in the current Party and its activities at large. composition of the National Assembly and Therefore, what is expected from the is trying to maneuver between the clearly OLJ in the future is an enhancement of declared support for the GERB Party in key its radical rhetoric. Another expectation areas of the country’s governance, on the concerning this party is for it to become one hand, and the attempts to emancipate an opposition to the incumbent govern- his party from the dependence on GERB, in ing majority. Indicative in this respect are order to avoid the potential loss of his par- the actions of Yane Yanev and his criticism ty’s distinct political stature, on the other. addressed both to Prime Minister Borissov, 3. The “Attack” Party turned into the whom the OLJ publicly accused of having major supporter of both GERB and the gov- contributed to the disintegration of its par- ernment of Boiko Borissov. The relations liamentary faction, and to Volen Siderov between these two parties are becoming and his “Attack” Party, whose idea for increasingly closer, although Borissov gave holding a referendum on the Turkish lan- up the idea of holding a referendum for guage newscasts on the air of the BNT has taking down the news in Turkish from the been vehemently opposed by the OLJ. air of the National Television. What can also be expected in the fore- Volen Siderov’s idea about holding such seeable future is for Yane Yanev to raise a referendum, concerning the Turkish lan- once again his idea about dissolving the guage news broadcast by the Bulgarian incumbent 41st National Assembly in order 16 4/2009

to summon a Grand National Assembly, 6. Over the past few months the MRF which will be entrusted with the task of had relapsed into a total political isolation. passing a new Constitution of the coun- Ahmed Dogan, who was unanimously try. This idea will underlie the future politi- re-elected leader of the party at the lat- cal acts of the party and will result in its est party Congress, held in the month of enhanced political rhetoric, which thus far December, declared that not before long has been effective and has worked well he would be giving up his leadership post. for the image of the OLJ. Most probably this statement is a strategic 5. After the BSP Congress, at which move on the part of Dogan, helping him Sergei Stanishev was re-elected leader of consolidate his political control over the the party, the situation of internal party party and block the circles of influence differences and conflicts has begun to emerging around Emel Etem, on the one deepen. Despite the fact that Stanishev hand, and around Kamen Kostadinov and got re-elected, his legitimacy and the con- Dilyan Peevsky, on the other. fidence he enjoys among the grass-root electorate and the party membership have been increasingly declining. Circles within the party – around Roumen Petkov, Rou- men Ovcharov, and Tatyana Doncheva in particular, are pursuing different strategies for regaining their impact both within the party and in politics at large. Given this situation, Tatyana Doncheva’s claims for establishing a new left-wing party are beginning to look increasingly more realistic. For his part, President Parvanov has also indicated a possibility for a party or a cause to get his personal support after the completion of his second presidential term of office. Parvanov categorically declared that he had no intention of returning to the BSP. All this shows that the left-wing political environment is in a state of restructuring, which will actually take place by the time the next elections are held – both presidential and local. The outcome for the BSP from the local by-elections for the mayor’s seat in the capital city has additionally consolidated the au- thority of Georgi Kadiev. Although he publi- About the editor: cally declared that at the time being he did Georgi Karasimeonov, Professor, Doctor of not intend to compete for the leadership Philosophical Sciences, is Head of the De- post in the party, in the foreseeable future partment of Political Science at the “St. Kli- he will be Sergei Stanishev’s major rival. The ment Ohridski” Sofia University, Director of fact that Roumen Ovcharov and the largest the Institute for Political and Legal Studies, BSP organization in the country – that of the and Editor-in-Chief of the “Political Stud- capital city – have been tacitly backing up ies” Journal. Between 1991 and 1998 he Kadiev gives additional arguments in favor was Chairman of the Bulgarian Association of the plausible hypothesis about the future for Political Sciences. role, which Kadiev will have to play. Contact point: [email protected] The political situation over the last quarter of 2009 was mainly determined by the political acts undertaken by GERB in its capacity of a governing party. This quarter also saw the completion of the first 100 days of the government’s term of office, which made observers, proponents and opponents strike various balances and give rise to different assessments. The high level of public support for the government after its first hundred days in office has been preserved as an ongoing tendency. What can be observed at the same time, however, are the first genuine symptoms of disillusionment as well, which is mainly connected with the economic situation in the country and the deepening crisis.