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The Political Situation Over the Last Quarter of 2009 Was Mainly Deter- Mined by the Political Acts Undertaken by GERB in Its Capacity of a Gov- Erning Party

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The Political Situation Over the Last Quarter of 2009 Was Mainly Deter- Mined by the Political Acts Undertaken by GERB in Its Capacity of a Gov- Erning Party The political situation over the last quarter of 2009 was mainly deter- mined by the political acts undertaken by GERB in its capacity of a gov- erning party. This quarter also saw the completion of the first 100 days of the government’s term of office, which made observers, proponents and opponents strike various balances and give rise to different assessments. The high level of public support for the government after its first hundred days in office has been preserved as an ongoing tendency. What can be observed at the same time, however, are the first genuine symptoms of disillusionment as well, which is mainly connected with the economic situation in the country and the deepening crisis. Over the last quarter of 2009 the “Attack” Party lived up to its recently gained reputation of being the most loyal and consistent sup- porter of the GERB Party and its government. A proof to this effect is the support extended by Volen Siderov’s party to Yordanka Fandakova – the candidate of GERB at the mayor’s by-election in the capital city. At the same time, a number of local party structures continued to express enhanced discontent with the policy pursued by their leader, Volen Siderov. After the BSP Congress, at which Sergei Stanishev was re-elected leader of the party, the situation of internal party differences and con- flicts has actually deepened. Despite Stanishev’s re-election, his legiti- macy and the confidence rating he enjoys among the broad electorate and rank-and-file party membership have increasingly been shrinking. 4/2009 1 Table of ConTenTs Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1. The Political situation............................................................................................................................ .. 2 2. situation of The Political Parties and Development of The Party system In bulgaria................................. 4 2.1. The GeRb Party .................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2. The blue Coalition ................................................................................................................................ 5 2.3. The “attack” Party .............................................................................................................................. 7 2.4. The “law, legality, and Justice” Party (olJ) .......................................................................................... 8 2.5. The Movement for Rights and freedoms (MRf) .................................................................................. 10 2.6. The bulgarian socialist Party (bsP) ...................................................................................................... 11 3. Public opinion ..................................................................................................................................... 13 4. Major Conclusions and forecasts .................................................................................................... ......14 2 4/2009 1. The Political Situation genuine symptoms of disillusionment as well, which is mainly connected with the The political situation over the last quarter economic situation in the country and the of 2009 was mainly determined by the po- deepening crisis. litical acts undertaken by GeRb in its capac- The most important task facing the ity of a governing party. This quarter also government was to draft the republican saw the completion of the first 100 days budget for the next calendar year. The aim of the government’s term of office, which of the macroeconomic framework pro- made observers, proponents and oppo- posed by the Cabinet was to guarantee the nents strike various balances and gave rise financial stability of the country and create to different assessments. genuine prerequisites conducive for the The opposition was particularly critical country’s overcoming the current econom- in its evaluations, and its general assess- ic crisis. at least this is the claim made by ment for the first hundred days of the Cabi- the Minister of finance, simeon Dyankov. net headed by boiko borissov was voiced in He reckons that in the middle of next year an entirely negative tone. The bsP declared the country will start to slowly and gradu- that GeRb had failed to take any real mea- ally come out of the crisis. sures for curbing the economic crisis and at its first reading, the draft govern- was launching instead PR campaigns, thus ment budget tabled by the Cabinet was behaving as if the party was still waging its passed with no deliberations whatsoever election campaign. in the plenary hall of Parliament, because The right-wing parties, which support the opposition left the plenary session as the government, were more sparing in a sign of disagreement with the entire ex- voicing their assessments. The blue Coali- penditure side of the budget. The opposi- tion insisted on a stronger governmental tion, however, was present at the second commitment with respect to curbing the reading voting procedure and launched consequences of the economic crisis and sharp critical remarks against the govern- yet again said that they were ready to lend ment for having tabled a right-wing bud- their support and expert assistance to both get, which holds the potential of bringing the government and the governing parlia- about a social crisis because of its strongly mentary majority. restricted expenditure side, curbing first The “attack” Party was the one which and foremost the social expenditures the gave the highest assessment in relation government is expected to make. with the first hundred days of the GeRb next year’s budget envisages a deficit Cabinet in office. The main reason for the of bGn 2.58 billion in the current account content expressed by “attack” concerns of the national budget, compared to bGn the dedicated commitment of the GeRb 3.58 billion deficit of the current account Party to investigate the activities of the in 2009. The direct foreign investments previous tri-partite governing coalition. In forecast for next year amount to bGn 3.3 the opinion of the “attack” Party, the first billion (or 10.2 per cent of the Gross Do- charges brought up against representa- mestic Product), given the fact that the tives of the previous government indicate expected amount of investments for the that GeRb has the political will to bring the current year stands at bGn 3 billion (or 9.2 combat against corruption and organized per cent of the GDP). The budget forecast crime to a successful end. for the 2010 revenues stands at bGn 26.39 The high level of public support for billion or 41.6 per cent, compared to the the government after its first hundred bGn 25.96 billion (or 40.7 per cent of the days in office has been preserved as an GDP) for the current year. ongoing tendency. What can be observed The macroeconomic framework of the at the same time, however, are the first budget also envisages an increase of the 4/2009 3 minimum monthly social contribution con- sult, the members of the supreme Judicial cerning the self-employed from bGn 260 to Council accepted the resignations of its bGn 420. The maximum monthly amount members stoiko stoev and Ivan Dimov, and for which social security contributions will those of several law-court administrative be paid remains at the level of bGn 2,000. leaders, such as Dora Chineva, angel an- The minimum and maximum levels of the gelov, and Plamen naidenov, who handed unemployment benefits remain unchanged in their resignations precisely on account of – bGn 120 and bGn 240 respectively. The their contacts with Krassimir Georgiev. The budget envisages a 2.5 per cent decline of three administrative leaders, however, will the employment rate as well, and the ex- function in the capacity of ordinary judges pectations are for the unemployment rate and prosecutors respectively for another to reach 11.4 per cent. The minimum wage month, until the supreme Judicial Council has also preserved its 2009 level and will makes a decision whether disciplinary pro- stand at bGn 240 throughout 2010, too. ceedings will be filed against them. The macroeconomic framework of the Upon further investigation of the case 2010 government budget tabled by the in point it became clear that Krassimir GeRb Cabinet is indicative of the optimistic Georgiev has also had contacts with poli- expectations, which the governing major- ticians from the former tri-partite govern- ity entertains with respect to the economic ing coalition. situation in the course of the coming year. another major event, which shaped should these optimistic forecasts for the up the development of the political situ- budget indicators fail to materialize, how- ation in the country, were the local by- ever, this will have an adverse impact on elections of municipality mayors in differ- the revenue side of budget. ent regions, whereby the local by-elec- The political situation was also affect- tion for a sofia City mayor legitimately ed by the implications of one of the big- occupied the center stage in this process. gest rows thus far concerning the judiciary The election campaign in the capital city branch of power in the country. The row was sluggish and boring and this was is connected with revelations stemming mainly due to the expectations that the from certain appointments of administra- runner-up from the GeRb Party, Yordanka
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