Namic and Tense. the Major Political Parties Are Undergoing a Process of Internal Regroupings, Thus Preparing for the General Election Due Next Year

The political situation in the country is getting increasingly more dynamic and tense. The major political parties are undergoing a process of internal regroupings, thus preparing for the general election due next year.

The public attitudes towards the GERB Party are marked by increasingly more critical overtones with a view to the economic problems experienced by the country. Although the party continues to rank first among all other major political parties, what has been observed is a growing decline of confidence in both the government and the parliamentary majority. The latest opinion polls, however, indicate that the Prime Minister and GERB leader, Boiko Borissov, has retained the voter confidence and is currently ranking among the politicians enjoying the highest approval ratings.

The situation within the Blue Coalition has exacerbated. The two constituent parties – the UDF and DSB – are experiencing internal differences as regards their coalition policy. Some of the local UDF party organizations have put forward the idea of reconsidering their relationships with DSB. Processes of internal party regrouping have been simmering within DSB as well.

A heated contest for the leadership post in the BSP is about to be- gin between the former President Georgi Parvanov and the incumbent party leader, Sergei Stanishev. The two have made some harsh verbal exchanges in the public environment, which has additionally fuelled the tension within the party. 1/2012 1

Contents

1. The Political Situation...... 2 2. Situation and Development of the Party System...... 6 2.1. Trends within the Right-Wing Political Environment...... 6 2.1.1. Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (The GERB Party)...... 6 2.1.2. The Blue Coalition (the Union of Democratic Forces - UDF and Democrats for Strong Bulgaria - DSB)...... 6 2.1.3. The Attack Party...... 9 2.1.4. The Order, Legality and Justice Party (OLJ)...... 10 2.2. Trends within the Parliamentary Opposition...... 10 2.2.1. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)...... 10 2.2.2. Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)...... 12 3. The Public Opinion...... 12 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts...... 14 2 1/2012

1. The Political Situation What it actually involves are meetings between the President and the parliamentary The political situation over the first quarter of represented parties to the purpose of finding 2012 was especially dynamic and packed with a supra-party consensus on the national pri- events. At the end of January the newly-elect orities. This initiative was highly appreciated President Rossen Plevneliev replaced Georgi by all the major parties in the country. Parvanov at the office of the Head of State. In The Bulgarian government gave its sup- his inauguration speech, President Plevneliev port to the EU Treaty concluded for the sal- outlined his principal priorities. He announced vation of the Euro on the explicit condition his intention to be a dialog-prone and active that Bulgaria will bind itself neither with any President who would be working to achieve financial conditions nor with the requirement a supra-party consensus among the major to harmonize its taxation system with the political formations in the country. The new rest of the EU member states. The Bulgarian President appointed Tzvetlin Yovchev, former Parliament approved the principled position Director of the National Security Agency, to of the government that initially Bulgaria will the post of Head of the Presidential Cabinet, adhere only to the fiscal rules of the Treaty re- while Ekaterina Zakharieva, former Deputy quiring a 3 percent annual budget deficit and Minister at the Ministry of Regional Develop- a level of foreign indebtedness, which does ment and Public Works, was appointed Chief not exceed 60 percent of its GDP. Bulgaria Secretary of the Presidential Cabinet. will start implementing the rest of the provi- There will be five commissions and seven sions in the agreement concerning its over- councils functioning within the presiden- all economic policy only after it has actually tial administration. President Plevneliev has joined the Euro Zone. For a yet another time, preserved the commissions existing thus far, Simeon Dyankov, Deputy Prime Minister and which are as follows: 1) Bulgarian citizenship Minister of Finance, declared that the govern- and Bulgarians Abroad Commission, 2) Clem- ment would make no financial commitments ency Appeal Commission, 3) Asylum Com- in connection with the new Treaty, as Bulgaria mission, 4) Commission on Pardoning Bad would not be a party to the European Stabi- Debts to the Government, and 5) Commis- lization Mechanism and thus would make no sion on Assigning Names to Settlements and pecuniary contributions to the International Sites of National Significance. The Presidential Monetary Fund. Administration has also set up the following In the preliminary Monitoring Report on councils: 1) Foreign Policy Council, 2) Defense Bulgaria’s progress in the area of Justice and and Security Council, 3) Legal Council, 4) In- Internal Order issued by the European Com- tellectual Development, Culture, and National mission, a special attention is drawn to the Identity Council, 5) Regional Development judicial system reform for a yet another time. and National Infrastructure Council, 6) Eco- There are recommendations for elaborating nomic Development and Social Policies Coun- transparent rules for the election of mem- cil, and 7) Science and Education Council. bers to the Supreme Judicial Council. There One of the first new initiatives of Presi- is another set of recommendations concern- dent Plevneliev was the organization of the ing the establishment of a network of special- so-called “month of political consultations”. ized prosecutors, and the implementation of 1/2012 3 new and active investigation strategies. The lobbyist interests might have been involved European Commission demands results con- so that such a price discrepancy could occur, cerning the imposition of sanctions in conflict and demanded an explanation from Prime of interest cases. The Prosecutor’s Office is Minister Boiko Borissov. The latter replied that criticized for the lack of effective actions in a he had no prior information about this fact number of cases involving alleged fraud with and passed on the blame to the Minister of EU funds, given the fact that on the basis of Health. Minister Konstantinov said he was the same evidence the investigation of these not given the chance of influencing the price same cases continues in another EU member formation process in a direction beneficial for state. The Report also mentions that in all cas- both the patients and citizens in this country, es of fraud with EU funds filed in 2011, the because he was faced with various lobbies respective penal liability has been substituted around the GERB Party, which “were tying his by administrative sanctions only. hands” thus preventing him from introducing In his presentation of the text of the Re- the necessary reforms. port, the Spokesperson of the European Com- The response of the opposition parties mission, Mark Grey, underlined that Brussels’ with respect to this resignation was far from tolerance amounted to zero whenever abuse surprising. The BSP, the MRF, and the Blue Co- of EU funds was involved and that was the alition voiced quite similar assessments, which reason why the institution he represented qualified Konstantinov’s dismissal as a yet an- would continue to closely monitor the devel- other proof of the government’s failure in the opment of these and other such cases. healthcare sector. Subsequently, the GERB It is for the first time ever that a Monitor- Party MP Dessislava Atanassova was elected ing Report of the European Commission has in the capacity of a new appointee to the post included the fact that election fraud, vote pur- of Minister of Health. chasing, and controlled voting were observed Another resignation – that of the Minister at the time of the latest presidential and local of the Economy, Energy, and Tourism, Traicho elections in the fall of 2011. Traikov, provoked a much louder public and A new round of ministerial re-shuffles political reverberation. Whereas the resig- was announced in the middle of March. The nation of the Minister of Health was an ex- Prime Minister demanded the resignation of pected one, Traikov’s resignation was more the Minister of Health, Stephan Konstantinov. or less unexpected. Indicative in this respect This was an expected move within the context are the reactions of the political parties and of the piled-up problems in the healthcare the leading political analysts in the country. sector, which were further exacerbated by the The public opinion expressed a shared feeling issue involving the exorbitant price of medica- that the replacement of Minister Traikov was tions in particular. One of the rows that burst ill substantiated. The Deputy Prime Minister, out at the beginning of March was connected Tzvetan Tzvetanov, mentioned that personal with the information leaked in the public en- considerations were underlying Traikov’s res- vironment that the Bulgarian pharmaceutical ignation, while Prime Minister Boiko Borissov companies were selling more expensive medi- pointed out that the resignation was con- cines in Bulgaria than in neighboring Serbia. nected with a failed country presentation at The opposition expressed its suspicions that the Bulgarian business forum in Qatar. For 4 1/2012

his part, Traikov said that his resignation was March, Kouneva officially announced that she rather prompted by energy-related interests had now left the National Movement for Sta- in contentious projects such as the “Belene” bility and Progress (NMSP). In all likelihood this Nuclear Power Plant. The fact that Traikov means that she will soon give support to the handed in his resignation two weeks before establishment of a new political party that will the deadline for making a decision on the fate function under her leadership. of the “Belene” NPP enhances the suspicions The National Assembly passed the ap- that the underlying reason is rooted precisely pointments of the new ministers by virtue of in the unsolved issue about the future of this the votes of the GERB parliamentary faction power plant. At the ministerial post Traikov and the independent MPs from the OLJ Party. was replaced by his deputy at the Ministry of The opposition united around the opinion the Economy, Energy and Tourism – the 33 that these replacements would hardly bring year old Delyan Dobrev. any changes in the policy pursued by the gov- The stance expressed by the Blue Coali- erning majority as regards the reforms in the tion was that the resignation of Traicho Trai- key sectors of the economy and the public kov had much to do with the “Belene” NPP sphere at large. and was connected either with his disagree- Ex-President Georgi Parvanov announced ment to implement this project or with the his stance in favor of composing a brand new then forthcoming negotiations on the price at “Borissov” Cabinet. In Parvanov’s opinion, the which Russian gas was sold to Bulgaria. very first minister who has to be ousted from MRF representatives said that Traikov had the incumbent government is the Deputy Prime actually become a scapegoat in this particular Minister and Minister of Finance, Simeon Dy- case. What had to be done in their opinion ankov. Parvanov made an appeal to Boiko Bo- was to publicly demand that the government rissov to take the responsibility for the failure take upon itself the collective responsibility of the economic and energy policy of the gov- and blame for the problems in the economy ernment in an unequivocal and clear manner, and healthcare, because what was observed because Traicho Traikov’s replacement meant was a deficit of policies and ideas generated precisely that. Parvanov – who is considered by the governing majority, which could help to be one of the staunchest proponents of the improve the situation in these two sectors of idea about the construction of the “Belene” paramount significance. A similar stance was NPP project – declared for a yet another time voiced by the BSP as well. that power generation and the energy sector The leader of the “Bulgaria of the Citizens” at large are the “the engine of the economy Civic Association – Meglena Kouneva – quali- and the guarantor of the country’s security”. fied the replacements of Traikov and Konstan- The stance of the major parties with re- tinov as the result of the “helpless country’s spect to the “Belene” NPP project remains governance”. She commented the statement unchanged. The Blue Coalition is against this of Prime Minister Borissov who said that “for project and suggests that the nuclear block, the past three years nothing had happened at which has already been almost paid for, should the Ministry of the Economy, Energy, and Tour- be installed – if such a move is feasible – as a ism” as an open acknowledgement of the lack seventh block on the site of the “Kozloduy” of reforms in the sector. At the beginning of NPP, and should that prove impossible, the 1/2012 5 nuclear reactor will have to be sold to an in- however, Eurostat revised the Bulgarian un- terested party. The stance taken by the MRF is employment figure to 12.4 percent, which is quite similar. It is only the BSP that has voiced well above the EU average of 10 percent. its support in favor of the completion of the The Minister of Finance, Simeon Dyankov, “Belene” NPP project, accusing the govern- announced that he was planning to diversify ment at the same time for having failed to the sources of raising the BGN 2 billion, which actively work for its implementation. The At- the country needs for the foreign debt repay- tack Party also expressed its stance in favor ments due at the beginning of 2013. In his of the “Belene” NPP, because in their opinion opinion, the most appropriate plan is to raise Bulgaria needs new energy resources. a portion of this sum from the privatization The response of Prime Minister Borissov of no longer needed government assets, to was that the “Belene” NPP project would be cover another portion by floating short-term subject to completion only if proofs were pro- treasury bills and government bonds of up duced for its profitability and if another for- to 3 year maturity, and to round up the third eign strategic investor agreed to take part in portion with medium-term (five- or seven- it. Otherwise Bulgaria would terminate this year) Euro bonds. project altogether. In the middle of March, the Bulgarian An- On that background, at the end of March, ti-trust Commission announced the results of the Cabinet made a decision for the total dis- one of its audits, which indicates the presence continuation of the “Belene” NPP project, of a cartel agreement among the largest liq- which was subsequently endorsed by the Na- uid fuel suppliers concerning the level of the tional Assembly as well. The arguments pointed consumer retail prices at the petrol stations in out by the government, which were also given the country. The participants in this cartel are: support by the Blue Coalition and independent Lukoil Bulgaria, Rompetrol Bulgaria, Naftex MPs, are based on the fact that the project is Petrol, and OMV Bulgaria. These companies economically inefficient. Only the MPs of the have infringed the ban on agreements among BSP and the Attack Party voted against the business entities connected with price level decision. It is in this connection that the BSP setting or with other terms of trade. The Anti- MPs announced their intention to table a par- trust Commission points out that the arrange- liamentary non-confidence vote against the ments at which these companies have arrived Cabinet. The Russian side put forward their fi- on the issue of diesel and petrol prices have nancial claims and it is possible for these claims “prevented, limited, or infringed the whole- to be referred to international arbitration. sale market competition” with respect to pet- The economic situation in the country rol and diesel liquid fuels. The ruling of the continues to be rather precarious. The Febru- Commission is not a subject to appeal. The ary unemployment rate stands at 11.5 per- sanction threatening these companies may cent, which is 0.4 points higher than the Jan- reach 10 percent of their turnover for the pre- uary unemployment level. Thus far, the labor vious calendar year. offices and bureaus have registered 376,171 unemployed, which makes 10,000 newly- registered unemployed in comparison with their January number. At the end of March, 6 1/2012

2. State and Development Elen Gerdjikov was elected to the post of new of the Party System Chairman of the Municipal Council. Over the quarter under review, a number 2.1 Trends within the Right-Wing of changes were carried out in the leadership Political Environment of the regional GERB party organizations. Thus for instance, in the town of Pazardjik, 2.1.1 Citizens for European Development the regional structure of the party from now of Bulgaria (The GERB Party) on will be under the leadership of Doncho Varsanov who is the incumbent Regional Over the past quarter, the GERB Party focused Governor of the town of Pazardjik. Before the increasingly more on the problems of its gov- replacement, the role of head of the regional ernance, because it is quite obvious that the GERB party organization was performed by reforms in key sectors of the country’s gover- MP Ivan Ivanov. The Deputy Prime Minister nance have been delayed. This affects the pub- and Deputy Chairman of the GERB Party, Tz- lic confidence both in the Cabinet and the par- vetan Tzvetanov, explained the reason under- ty, which is evidenced by a number of opinion lying these replacements with the fact that the polls that are quite indicative in this respect. majority of the regional party leaders thus far The priorities in the short-term period of time were occupied as Members of Parliament at will be the administrative reform and the estab- the same time. This prompted the GERB cen- lishment of an e-government, the water sector tral leadership to reconsider the situation and reform connected with the management of make the respective changes in some of the the country’s water wealth and its dams, the regional centers with a view to the higher re- reform in the judicial system and the elabora- sponsibilities of the regional party leaders on tion of transparent rules for the election of a the eve of the general election due next year. new Supreme Judicial Council in particular. This namely is the reason why similar changes What lies in store for the governing major- were undertaken in the towns of Razgrad, ity is a difficult year from an economic point Haskovo, and Veliko Turnovo as well. of view, and this will be the major challenge precisely, which the party and the govern- 2.1.2 The Blue Coalition ment will have to face. (the Union of Democratic Several key changes were carried out at Forces - UDF and Democrats the Sofia City Municipal Council in the moth for Strong Bulgaria - DSB) of February. Andrei Ivanov handed in his resignation as a Chairman of the Municipal At the opening of the new parliamentary ple- Council, but remained at the post of munici- nary session at the beginning of 2012, the pal councilor and Chairman of the GERB Party DSB leader, Ivan Kostov, declared that the Sofia City organization. In the opinion of Tz- major priority of the Blue Coalition through- vetan Tzvetanov, the performance of the So- out the entire year would be the salvation of fia City organization at the past local elections the Bulgarian economy. Kostov drew special was exceptionally successful and that was the attention to the fact that the medium-size reason why no changes whatsoever had to business in the country was facing bankrupt- be effected there. After Ivanov’s resignation, cy on a mass scale. The DSB leader addressed 1/2012 7 the governing GERB majority with an appeal, The DSB leader, Ivan Kostov, also said that summoning them to make amendments to what should be set up was an appropriate the policy they were pursuing with respect to mechanism whereby Bulgarian treasury bills the monopolies in the Bulgarian economy. It and government bonds could be traded on a is in this connection that the Blue Coalition is continuous basis, because it was in this way working on amendments to the Protection of only that genuine liquidity could be available. Competition Act, which provide for the bet- Apart from that, Kostov also suggested that ter protection of consumer interests. The UDF the treasury bills and government bonds mar- and DSB intend to propose a clear definition ket should be accessible for pension funds, in- of the term “a business entity holding a dom- surance companies, business entities, and even inant market position” and to clarify what is for physical persons. Kostov warned about the the precise meaning of the term “abuse of disastrous consequences that could occur if a dominant market position”. In Kostov’s the Ministry of Finance attempted to use only opinion, it is small- and medium-size busi- the remainder of the current fiscal reserve to ness that is the genuine engine of the Bul- fund the budget deficit and the repayment garian economy and the Blue Coalition will of the interest due on the foreign bonds early do its best to protect its interests. The other next year to the exclusion of the option to go categorical declaration of the Blue Coalition out and borrow money on the international was that they would do their utmost in order market. Should that happen, then the country to prevent a situation of an excessive govern- would face the problem of being incapable of ment budget deficit. servicing its foreign debt altogether. The DSB Over the past quarter it became clear that leader is against the idea of borrowing funds the Blue Coalition intends to organize a de- from the International Monetary Fund. bate through a series of round tables on new The UDF declared its stance in favor of amendments to the Bulgarian Constitution. drafting, tabling and implementing a new This idea was prompted by the latest interim regulatory policy, the purpose of which is to Report of the European Commission, which discontinue the current practice of govern- indicates that no substantial progress has mental protection of the monopolies from been made in the area of combating corrup- competition. In his statement the UDF lead- tion in this country. MEP Svetoslav Malinov er, Martin Dimitrov, was categorical that the said that a tendency of deteriorated attitude GERB governance was continuing its policy of towards Bulgaria was observed and that the tolerating monopolies and that the govern- expectations were for an even more critical ment remained indifferent to the rising prices tone in the regular summer report. of fuels, food, and medication. In practice, According to Ivan Kostov, taxes in Bulgaria this situation is wiping out the small- and me- are low and this makes it possible to attract dium-size business in the country. It is in this investors, but nonetheless this somehow is connection that the Blue Coalition will table failing to happen. The reasons why, in his amendments to the Competition Act, which own opinion, are rooted in the monopoliza- could bring about an effective limitation of tion of entire sectors of the economy, the cor- the power of monopolies in Bulgaria. rupt administration, and the malfunctioning The UDF will insist on alleviating the im- adjudication process. ports of fuels, which – for its part – will create 8 1/2012

conditions for healthier competition on the election on its own twice – at a presidential market and will consequently promote the election and at the election for members of depreciation of diesel and petrol prices. the European Parliament. Both times the out- The UDF National Council granted per- come for the party was below 100,000 votes. mission to the party leadership to initiate A similar stance was voiced by the former talks with other right-wing parties for jointly mayor of the town of Pleven, Naiden Zeleno- running next year’s general election. Martin gorsky, the UDF local party organizations in Dimitrov said that he had always stood for a Veliko Turnovo and Lovech, as well as by the broad right-wing association, but initially such majority of the UDF MPs. talks would be held with DSB only. There are Within DSB, there has been a growing differences among the members of the UDF tension as well. At the end of March, Proshko National Council as regards their union with Proshkov, former candidate for Sofia city may- DSB in the form of the Blue Coalition. The or of the Blue Coalition at the latest local elec- representatives of the Sofia City UDF orga- tions, surprisingly handed in his resignation in nization and the Head of the Party Election the capacity of a member of the DSB National Headquarters, Boris Markov, continue to be Leadership. In his words, the party should en- the staunchest opponents of this coalition tirely reconsider its coalition policy, which he format. In the opinion of Ivan Sotirov, former called “a policy of fear”. Proshkov also stated Deputy Sofia City Mayor, to run a general that the analysis made of the outcome from election once again with DSB would mean in the 2011 presidential and local elections was practice the total marginalization of the UDF wrong. He also shared that he would give in the near future. his approval to the Blue Coalition only if “it The former Speaker of the National As- worked with self-confidence and as a genuine sembly, Alexander Yordanov, is another ad- governmental alternative, rather than chasing versary of the coalition with DSB and suggests the cherished 4 percent” electoral threshold. that the UDF should seek partnership with Some of the loudest critics of the UDF Meglena Kouneva, if she chose not to enter leader, Martin Dimitrov, set up a civic associa- into a coalition with the BSP. At the same tion called “Democratic Action – D2” headed time, Alexander Yordanov qualified GERB as by the former UDF Sofia City leader, Stephan a “natural partner” of the UDF. Ivanov. The objective of the Association is to The representatives of two of the bigger launch new ideas for possible solutions and UDF local organizations – those in the towns policies, which – according to its founders of Plovdiv and Bourgas – also oppose the co- – were lacking within the UDF. Among the alition of their party with DSB. founders of the D2 Association are also: Ivan Unlike these representatives of the UDF, Neikov, former Social Policy Minister at Ivan the MEP Nadejda Neinsky voiced her open Kostov’s Cabinet (1997-2001) and Milena support for the coalition with DSB. In her Stefanova, Deputy Rector of Sofia University opinion, any other solution would be not only and former municipal councilor at the Sofia a “political suicide”, but also a betrayal of the City Municipal Council elected on the party right-wing voters who voted for the Blue Co- slate of the UDF. The other members of the alition in 2009. She reminded her colleagues Association are: the former leader of the UDF of the fact that the UDF had run a national Plovdiv local organization, Dr. Grigor Mallev, 1/2012 9 the Deputy Chairman of the UDF Sofia local pation in this project was based on “attitudes organization, Teodor Petkov, etc. and complexes from previous times”. Ivan Neikov said that the principal idea of Siderov also said that Bulgaria had to con- the Association is to set up an expert group, tinue the construction of the “Belene” NPP, which will not only elaborate policies, but will because this country lacked sufficient energy also become a discussion forum held at least resources. In his words the major sources of once a month. The Association does not aim crude oil and gas were in Russia and that was at becoming an alternative to the incumbent the reason why the European Union had to UDF leadership; its purpose rather is to func- enlarge in the direction of Russia, as well as tion as a think-tank, the ideas of which could the Ukraine, rather than Turkey. He pointed be useful for all political parties in the country. out that while Bulgaria was delaying the implementation of its energy projects, Turkey 2.1.3 The Attack Party was building several electric power plants and thus the possibility for Turkey to sell electricity Over the past quarter, the Attack Party has to Bulgaria was becoming quite realistic. traditionally continued to put its stakes on The MEP Dimitar Stoyanov, who was populist messages. The party tabled exceed- ousted from the Attack Party not long ago, ingly unrealistic legislative amendments, such and his mother Kapka Georgieva, ex-wife as an amendment to the Labor Code, where- of the Attack Party leader, initiated the es- by the minimum wage should be set at BGN tablishment of a new political party. Dimitar 1,000, and the minimum pension – at BGN Stoyanov was elected Chairman of the initia- 500. Another such a proposal was to impose tive committee of the National Democratic a moratorium on the rising price of bread for Party (NDP). The Constituent Assembly of the a three month’s period of time. new party will be held on June 2nd this year. The Attack party leader, Volen Siderov, Before his election, Dimitar Stoyanov ex- launched his sharp criticism on account of the plained that the name of the new party was visit of the Turkish government to Bulgaria chosen in connection with the two principal at the end of March. He declared his stance ideas, which the party would be defending: against the joint session of the two Cabinets the “national” – because of “the idea about and qualified it as a retraction from national the national interest, about the patriotic be- dignity, as there were a number of pending ginning, about the maturity and unification issues between the two countries. According of the Bulgarian nation”, and the “demo- to Siderov this was “a disgraceful visit, which cratic” – because “all authoritarian forms of expresses the lack of any governmental policy governance” should be rejected. as regards Turkey”. Dimitar Stoyanov stated that the new pa- It is for the first time that the Attack Party triotic formation would pursue a moderate po- expressed a categorical stance on the “Be- litical course on the example of other similar lene” NPP project. Volen Siderov said he was parties in Europe. He mentioned that what the not bothered by the fact that the nuclear re- European experience had shown thus far was actors were Russian made, as long as their that confrontation among parties in conditions price was reasonable. In his opinion, the cur- of a rampant financial crisis created additional rent criticism concerning the Russian partici- political divisions and was counterproductive. 10 1/2012

Stoyanov said that so far about 20 municipal committee was set on the demand tabled by structures of the Attack Party had expressed the GERB Party when it became clear that ex- their readiness to join the new party. President Parvanov had failed to issue a sec- The leader of the Attack Party, Volen Sid- ond decree to transfer the presidential pow- erov, declared that the new party was a mere ers of pardoning debts, granting clemency satellite of the GERB Party. In his opinion the and Bulgarian citizenship to Vice President governing majority were creating “such par- Marin after they were sworn for their second ties precisely, in order to erode the popular presidential term of office back in 2006. vote for the Attack Party”. BSP representatives said that this commit- Much like Dimitar Stoyanov, the other MEP tee was illegitimate, because the presidential elected on the party slate of the Attack Party, institution was not subject to parliamentary Slavi Binev, organized a new political project control, and that the major task of this com- called Civic Movement for Genuine Democ- mittee was to launch a personal attack against racy – CMGD (the Bulgarian abbreviations of ex-President Georgi Parvanov. The opposition which – GORD – sounds exactly as the word addressed the issue about the legitimacy of “proud” in Bulgarian). CMGD issued an ap- this parliamentary committee to the Consti- peal for a modern state, which received the tutional Court. support of public figures such as: the writer Lyuben Dilov-son, the volleyball player Lyubo 2.2 Trends within the Ganev, the journalist Kroum Savov, and the Parliamentary Opposition sculptor Georgi Chapkunov. In their opinion, the modern state is an agreement among 2.2.1 The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) people, which is concluded in the name of collective security and welfare. This is the rea- The major event for the BSP during the period son why they will work for a united nation, under review was the declaration made by ex- which has overcome the demographic catas- President Georgi Parvanov that he once again trophe and has taken its merited place among intended to head the party whose leader he was the most successful European nations. before entering the presidential office. At the end of February it became clear that a meeting 2.1.4 The Order, Legality was held between Sergei Stanishev and Parva- and Justice Party (OLJ) nov, at which the ex-President made a proposal to the incumbent BSP leader to withdraw from During the first quarter of the year, the OLJ the contest for the leadership post in the party gave its support to Boiko Borissov’s govern- against the unconditional support of the party ment once again and voted for key parlia- for his candidature for President of the Party mentary bills in sync with the governing ma- of European Socialists (PES) at its forthcoming jority. Subsequently, the OLJ party leader, Yane congress in November. Stanishev, however, cat- Yanev, was elected Chairman of the ad-hoc egorically refused to accept this proposal. This parliamentary committee of inquiry entrusted is what Parvanov himself shared in front of BSP with the task of reviewing the pardoning acts supporters in the town of Razgrad. and Bulgarian citizenship acts granted by the Parvanov said that his major political former Vice President, Anguel Marin. This battle was with Boiko Borissov and the GERB 1/2012 11 governing majority. Parvanov also said that ship claims. MP Mikhail Mickov qualified the he intended to run for the leadership post in way in which Georgi Parvanov was entering the BSP because he had amassed huge expe- his campaign for the leadership post as harm- rience, which could be useful for the party ful, as it was dividing rather than uniting the in the difficult times it was going through. party membership. Mickov is of the opinion The principal objective Parvanov has set to that the subject matter concerning the BSP himself to accomplish is to transform the BSP leadership will unnecessarily replace all other into a leading party once again and into a significant issues, on which the party is laying party that has climbed to the helm of the the stress at the National Assembly at present. country’s governance. MP Peter Moutafchiev does not share the For his part, Sergei Stanishev said that the idea of organizing primaries for the post of BSP would prove incapable of turning into party chairman as suggested by Georgi Par- an alternative to the GERB Party provided it vanov. In his opinion, the BSP is not a party was headed by Georgi Parvanov, because the of a single personality, but a party of ideas. line pursued by Parvanov in his presidential The direct chairmanship election at possible capacity with respect to the current govern- primaries will give the chairperson too many ing majority was inconsistent. Stanishev also powers, whereas the BSP is not a leader’s expressed his confidence that Parvanov was party and this fact precisely has preserved incapable of winning the leadership post in it throughout the years. The Party Congress the BSP. In his opinion there was no poten- gives opportunities for a wide representation tial danger of a split within the party, because of the party membership, as it is a collective each one who had attempted to do so over body preserving the balance between the the past 20 years had sustained a failure and chairperson and the party leadership. was compelled to leave the political scene al- Four years after Stanishev’s government in- together. According to Stanishev, the BSP was troduced the 10 percent flat rate on the personal facing the unique opportunity of developing and corporate incomes, the BSP announced its itself both into a European party with a mod- stance in favor of the return to progressive taxa- ern party platform and into an alternative to tion. This announcement was made following the GERB Party, should it continue to pursue a decision of the National Council of the party the policy, which Stanishev himself had out- where subject to debate were issues concerning lined over the past few years. the governance project of the party in the area The BSP leadership took a cautious stance of taxation and fiscal policy. According to the with respect to Meglena Kouneva’s project. author of the document – MP Roumen Ovcha- Stanishev said that Kouneva had to define rov, in the current situation it was only natural where she was positioning her political project for the BSP to demand that the rich should within the political environment. According to shoulder the heavier weight of the consequenc- the BSP leader, the attitude towards Koune- es of the economic crisis. He maintained that va’s new project will depend on her attitude low incomes should be relieved from any taxa- concerning the GERB Party and the model she tion whatsoever. Currently, however, the BSP is has chosen of governing the country. not ready with the respective calculations and Other leading BSP figures also took a has no specific proposals as to the tax rate levels critical stance regarding Parvanov’s leader- and the delimitation of the tax brackets. 12 1/2012

The issue about the repeal of the flat tax expressed the stance that the MRF was ready rate was raised by ex-President Georgi Parva- to cooperate and seek a supra-party consen- nov as well. In a letter to the National Council sual environment on the issues of security and of the party he says that his personal proposal freedom as well. In Dogan’s opinion, the big concerning the issue of the flat tax rate is that question when deliberating on the issue of it should first become subject to an internal national security is the ability to find the mea- party opinion poll survey. sure and focus of security and freedom, of security and human rights at the same time. 2.2.2 The Movement for Rights In the middle of March, the MRF leader- and Freedoms (MRF) ship released the leaders of the municipal party organization in the town of Kurdjali. The After last year’s presidential and local elec- municipal party council was dismissed and tions, the MRF has been making attempts to replaced by an operating bureau of 11 mem- overcome the political isolation, in which it bers headed by Mukharem Mukharem. These has found itself for the last three years. The replacements were carried out because of the MRF leader, Ahmed Dogan, took part in the heightened tension between the leadership meeting with President Plevneliev organized groups of the party in the town of Kurdjali. The in the month of political consultations. interim leadership has been entrusted with the The MRF leader, Ahmed Dogan, quali- organization and holding of the conference, at fied his meeting with President Rossen Plev- which a respective report will be made of the neliev as a “landmark visit”. At the meeting, past period and the new leadership and other Dogan’s party proposed three principal mea- municipal bodies will be elected. sures for achieving economic growth and employment, namely: investments, incomes, 3. The Public Opinion and jobs. The MRF thinks that the fiscal reserve must not be allowed to fall below the The opinion poll survey held by the Alpha minimum the Government Budget Act stipu- Research Agency at the end of February indi- lates and that the Silver Fund should not be cates a certain decline in the popular support subject to risk-related management. In the for the governing party. The confidence rat- opinion of the MRF, the Electoral Code needs ings of the government, Prime Minister Bo- urgent amendments. The MRF leader pointed rissov, and President Plevneliev have been pre- out that “the current position of Bulgaria is at served at approximately the same levels mea- the bottom – below all the other EU member sured in December 2011. The quick response states, but within the context of the EU 2020 of the Cabinet in the aftermath of the floods Strategy it has the opportunity for develop- in Southeastern Bulgaria this winter has been ment”. According to the MRF leader, what positively assessed by the citizens and this ac- such a development takes is not only national tually is one of the reasons why the level of consensus and political will, but also proper support and confidence for the GERB Party administrative capacity and expert potential. has been preserved. Dogan also stated that Bulgaria needs a On the other hand, however, the cases of fundamental updating of the principles un- police violence, the rows with the bonuses in derlying its strategy for national security. He the state administration, and the high price 1/2012 13 of medication have had an adverse impact on terference in the economy brings about posi- the image of the governing majority. Despite tive results. Another 67 percent are in favor of the fact that the Minister of Interior, Tzvetan state interference in the financial institutions. Tzvetanov, continues to be the minister with As far as the judiciary is concerned, the opin- the highest approval rating, for the first time ions are polarized: 41 percent of the respon- he now receives more negative than positive dents believe that the government should assessments for his ministerial work. interfere in the functioning of the judicial sys- The support for the GERB Party, however, tem, while 40 percent are against such inter- has marked a 2 percent decline in comparison ference. The only two spheres in which the with December 2011. At the end of February, Bulgarians stand against state interference 23.9 percent of the respondents declare that are the media and the private life of citizens. they would cast their ballots for the govern- The trend of expressing dissatisfaction ing party. There is a withdrawal of support for with key governmental institutions continues. the GERB Party mainly on the part of the citi- The popular confidence in the National As- zens inhabiting the regional centers and the sembly has strongly eroded (Parliament now villages, the middle-aged generation, and the enjoys only 11 percent confidence rating), people with higher education. while the confidence rating of the Speaker The approval rating for the functioning of of the National Assembly, Tzetzka Tzacheva, the government has been preserved almost stands at 15 percent. unchanged in comparison with December President Rossen Plevneliev, however, makes 2011: 22 percent are the positive assessments a marked exception from this general tenden- of the respondents, and 36 percent are the cy by retaining his high confidence rating. A negative assessments. The approval comes month after his January inaugural ceremony at mainly from within the GERB Party elector- the presidential office, he receives the positive ate, and to a lesser extent such approval is assessments of 43 percent of the respondents, expressed by supporters of the Attack Party while only 16 percent of the respondents have and the Blue Coalition. assessed his activity in a negative way. The Alpha Research survey indicates that The support for the BSP has marked a Boko Borissov’s personal rating remains at its slight increase – from 16 percent in December previous level, whereby the positive assess- 2011 to 17 percent at the end of February. ments are 38 percent, and the negative assess- The battle for the leadership post in the party ments are 33 percent. The confidence in the is likely to impact the popular support for the Prime Minister encompasses broader public BSP over the next few months. Georgi Parva- circles than the confidence the Cabinet enjoys. nov has managed to retain a confidence rat- This Alpha Research survey also indicates ing of 33 percent, but there has been a slight that the majority of the Bulgarians continue rise in the confidence rating Sergei Stanishev to seek support from the state and the gov- enjoys: from 17 percent in December 2011 to ernment and also to consider that where reg- 20 percent at the end of February. ulation has failed to achieve good results, this The electoral potential of the MRF and the can be remedied by more regulation. 72 per- confidence rating of its leader, Ahmed Dogan, cent of the respondents are convinced that stand within the traditional 5 percent of the big government is a good thing and state in- popular vote. 14 1/2012

The Blue Coalition has preserved its elec- 2. The attitude of the citizens to the GERB toral standing from the end of December Party is getting increasingly more critical with a 2011 – 2.9 percent, and the confidence rat- view to the economic problems plaguing the ings of both Martin Dimitrov and Ivan Kostov country. Despite the fact that the party contin- remain at their previous low levels. ues to be the first ranking political force, the The approval rating for the Attack Party distrust with the government and the parlia- and its leader, Volen Siderov, shows a durable mentary majority has been growing. Currently, trend of continuous shrinking. Merely 1.9 per- the Prime Minister and party leader, Boiko Bo- cent of the respondents say they would cast rissov, is retaining the confidence of the vot- their ballots for the party, whereas Siderov’s ers and ranks among the politicians with the personal rating stands at 4 percent. highest approval rating. In the future, however, The Chairperson of the Bulgaria of the the situation may change and this will depend Citizens Association, Meglena Kouneva, is on the capacity of the governing majority to one of the best approved politicians in the cope with the consequences of the crisis. For country and enjoys a 26 percent confidence the time being, the necessary reforms in key rating. This figure on its own indicates a sub- public sectors continue to be deferred. stantial electoral potential, which – however 3. The situation in the Blue Coalition has – must be tested in a genuine electoral situ- exacerbated. Both in the UDF and DSB there ation. Around 10 percent of the respondents are internal differences on account of the co- declare their interest in the new movement, alition policy of the two parties. Some of the but merely 2 percent have declared their firm local UDF organizations oppose the leader, intention to vote for it. Martin Dimitrov, and defend the idea of reconsidering the party relationship with DSB. For his 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts part, Martin Dimitrov said that by the middle of the current year there would be greater clarity 1. The political situation in the country is get- concerning the options the UDF could avail of ting increasingly more dynamic and tense. in order to run the general election next year. The major political parties are undergoing a Processes of internal regrouping are sim- process of internal regrouping as they are pre- mering within DSB as well. There are circles in paring for the general election due next year. the party, which insist on seeking cooperation The economic situation in the country re- with Meglena Kouneva. One of the younger mains unstable and this polarizes the relations persons in the party, Proshko Proshkov, who among the parties. A growing number of eco- had asserted himself as a leading and au- nomic entities are declaring insolvency and the thoritative figure in the party of late – left the unemployment rate is rising. All this enhances DSB leadership and took a critical stance with the disapproval of the people for the political respect to the leaders by declaring that DSB elite. At the time being, the civic and social had to open up to the country’s electorate on protests are sporadic and feeble. In the future, a wider basis and start seeking cooperation however, should the economic problems in the with other parties as well. country further aggravate, a protest wave may 4. The Attack Party parliamentary faction is be expected, which will get politicized on the facing disintegration. Currently, it numbers 10 eve of the 2013 general election. MPs, which is the critical minimum for the ex- 1/2012 15 istence of a parliamentary faction. The estab- of his unsuccessful attempt to organize a po- lishment of the new party of Dimitar Stoyanov litical project of his own – the ABC Movement. and Kapka Georgieva will further fragment the There are circles within the BSP, which have nationalist vote in the country and will diminish put forward the idea of nominating a third the chances of this type of parties to make it to candidate leader of the party to the purpose Parliament at the next general election. Volen of mitigating the existing tension. For the time Siderov continues to put his stakes on popu- being, however, this option is highly unlikely to lism by tabling extreme leftist measures in the materialize. Another option, which cannot be economic sphere. In all likelihood, this will be ruled out, is for Parvanov himself to give up the his main line of conduct in the future as well, leadership contest, in case that his chances for especially within the context of the economic success cannot be guaranteed. Then he may crisis in the country and the impoverishment of lend support to another candidate who would broad strata of the population. be the formal party leader, making it possible 5. Yet again, Yane Yanev’s OLJ went to the for Parvanov to preserve his authority though side of the governing majority. Having been the remaining in the background. staunchest critic of the GERB Party and Prime 7. After the 2011 presidential and local Minister Borissov for almost two years, he has elections, the MRF has been making attempts currently become a staunch supporter of the to overcome the political isolation, in which it country’s government. The underlying reasons has stagnated ever since the 2009 general elec- are both situational and pragmatic, but this only tion. For the first time since 2006, the leader of enhances the image of the party as a populist the party, Ahmed Dogan, visited the presiden- and opportunistic formation. However, the par- tial office in the month of political consulta- ty is making no gains from this state of affairs, tions organized by the new President Rossen on the contrary – this only enhances the process Plevneliev. At the meeting with the president, of its lasting marginalization. Dogan said that his party was willing to pursue 6. A battle for the leadership post is loom- the national priorities and reforms and that the ing within the BSP between ex-President Geor- MRF would look forward to establishing con- gi Parvanov and the incumbent party leader, structive relations both with the political par- Sergei Stanishev. There were some harsh ver- ties and the institutions of state. bal exchanges between the two of them in the At the time being, the MRF continues to public environment, which additionally fueled criticize the governing majority on key issues up the existing tension within the party. concerning the country’s governance and is Immediately after the end of his presiden- pursuing its chosen opposition conduct. At the tial term of office, Parvanov restored his mem- same time, however, the GERB Party and the bership in the BSP and went on a tour to visit MRF managed to discover common ground the party structures throughout the country. He in the process of electing the new leadership said that what the party needed was a clash of of the National Association of Municipalities. ideas and clear-cut concepts for the country’s Many observers qualified this fact as a new governance. For his part, Stanishev accused stage in the relationships between the two Parvanov of being inconsistent with respect to parties. On the national level, however, their the GERB Party and reminded the ex-President relations remain distant and pragmatic. 16 1/2012

About the editor:

Georgi Karasimeonov, Professor, Doctor of Philosophical Sciences, is Director of the Insti- tute for Political and Legal Studies and Editor- in-Chief of the Political Studies academic peri- odical. From 1991 to 1998 he was Chairman of the Bulgarian Political Science Association. Address for contacts: [email protected] The political situation in the country is getting increasingly more dynamic and tense. The major political parties are undergoing a process of internal regroupings, thus preparing for the general election due next year.