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Bulgaria Political Briefing: Bulgarian President Rumen Radev Will Run for a Second Term Evgeniy Kandilarov

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Bulgaria Political Briefing: Bulgarian President Rumen Radev Will Run for a Second Term Evgeniy Kandilarov ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 37, No. 1 (BG) February 2021 Bulgaria political briefing: Bulgarian President Rumen Radev will run for a Second Term Evgeniy Kandilarov 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: CHen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 Bulgarian President Rumen Radev will run for a Second Term One of the most significant political events in the last few weeks in Bulgaria was the announcement of the President Roumen Radev, on Februaty 1st, that he and the Vice President Iliana Yotova will run for a second term in office at the presidential elections scheduled for this fall. This became clear during a press conference at which the head of state reported on what had been done over the past four years. “Our candidacy at this time is an honest move for citizens and political figures,” he said in an hour-long speech, hailing his own presidency as a voice of reason during the last few years. President Rumen Radev took the office after winning a second round of voting in 2016 – against GERB candidate Tsetska Tsacheva. Radev and Iliana Yotova took the oath as president and vice president in the parliament on January 19, 2017.Three days later, on January 22, they officially took the office. Under the constitution, the presidential couple's term expires in January 2022. Elections for a new head of state will be in the fall but it is not yet clear whether they will be in October or November. In the last presidential elections in 2016, Roumen Radev ran as an independent candidate but was supported by Bulgarian Socialist Party and the so called “Alternative for Bulgarian Revival”, founded by former president and Socialist Party member Georgi Parvanov. Radev won after polling 25.44 per cent of the vote in the first round and then 59.37 per cent in the runoff with ruling centre-right GERB candidate Tsetska Tsacheva. In the last four years, Radev has grown into an opposition voice to the ruling coalition of GERB and United Patriots. He has clashed with GERB leader and Prime Minister Boyko Borissov over numerous points, even referring to the government as a “mafia” following the latest anti-government protest wave, which peaked in the summer of 2020. Radev has also sparred with the Chief Prosecutor, Ivan Geshev, who eavesdropped on his calls and investigated possible conflict of interest. In July 2020, the president supported protests against the government and Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev, which lasted for months. He himself demanded the resignation of the ruling party and regularly spoke about the need to expel the mafia from the executive power and the prosecutor's office. The announcement by Bulgarian President Rumen Radev that he will run again for the presidency in the presidential elections, a few weeks before the parliamentary elections, provoked reactions in the Bulgarian political life. First of all we have to bear in mind that so far, none of the parties in parliament has announced its nomination for head of state. 1 At the same time In the parliament, the ruling GERB party accused President Radev of trading in influence, called it "shame and disgrace" and urged him not to run for a second term. Parliament Speaker Tsveta Karayancheva commented on the announcement, criticizing Radev for lack of dialogue with the institutions. According to her, the President’s decision to run with Vice President Iliana Yotova will not affect the April parliamentary elections, but will commit GERB to run in the elections with a strong candidacy. Deputy Foreign Minister Georg Georgiev questioned the president’s decision, noting that “I thought he would admit the big mistakes he made, the extreme division of the nation he caused, and finally say he would not run for a second term”. The Prime Minister, Borissov also criticized Radev for not reacting to the arrest of President Vladimir Putin’s opposition rival, Alexey Navalny, in Russia. At the press conference, Radev insisted he was against violence and the arrest of people who are peacefully protesting – but twisted the argument against the PM. “If Navalny was a Bulgarian, he would most likely investigate the affair with the belongings in Borissov’s nightstand”, referring to the leaked photos of PM Borissov sleeping next to a pistol and stacks of bills. The attacks on the president by the ruling GERB party are not surprising. The more important question is, what is the position of the BSP, with whose votes Rumen Radev was elected four years ago. And now Radev’s announcement comes almost nine months before the presidential election and without having secured the support of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). According to some political scientists Radev’s move to announce his candidacy is currently a mean of putting pressure on the Socialist Party to take a stand on his candidacy. At a time when the Socialist Party is fighting for victory in the parliamentary elections, Radev is putting extra pressure, as intra-party calm may be disrupted within the party. The BSP leader put aside her differences with Rumen Radev and would not want to reopen the front just before the election. At the same time, however, the BSP has so far not announced support for the president's candidacy. The current leader of the socialist party, Kornelia Ninova, commented that BSP will decide who its presidential candidate will be at the end of the summer, because there are procedures for candidacy and collective bodies of the Party have to decide on the issue. This made Radev also to stress that the form of his candidacy would become clear after the parliamentary elections and within the legal deadline. The announcement of Radev's candidacy at this time definitely puts the BSP in a delicate position. Throughout his term, the president appears the antithesis of the GERB rule. Four years ago, most voters voted for him because they wanted a counterweight to GERB. At least on a symbolic level. The voters did not want the president to be a man who would obediently nod 2 his head at every action of the ruling party, as the former president Rosen Plevneliev did. Four years ago, people with different views voted for Rumen Radev. But still, the basis of his victory was the BSP voters. That is why it is logical to think that this will be the case in the upcoming presidential elections as well. Apparently, the president understands this, because on the day he announced his candidacy for a second term, he made a special appeal for support to the supporters of the Socialist Party. “I have not negotiated with political parties to endorse our candidacy with Iliana Yotova. The Socialists have the right to be the first to decide, because they nominated us in 2016,” Radev added. The President also noted that government actions undermine confidence in the electoral process. “Ms. Yotova and I are looking forward to join the Bulgarian Socialists, as well as all the respectable Bulgarians, in moving Bulgaria forward. The trust between us and the Socialist Party (BSP) has been strengthened during these difficult four years of our tenure. They prove that we continue to fulfill our commitment to a new Bulgaria. I look forward to being with the BSP again,” Radev said. If Rumen Radev ignores the BSP, portraying some unifying figure, he will certainly lose. In conclusion lest analyze what does Radev's application for a second term mean? The president said he expects a "powerful political alternative" and not governments hiding behind the scenes "national salvation", "expert cabinet", etc. Although he did not play a major role in forming the new government, he could at least win some electorate for the presidential vote in the autumn, if after the parliamentary elections on April 4 the first two parties fail to form a cabinet and he handed over the third term to "Democratic Bulgaria". If a government is not formed again, it would be best for Radev, according to the Bulgarian Constitution, to schedule new, early parliamentary elections together with the presidential ones. Thus, not only will he have his own, official cabinet (caretaker government), but he will also be able to become a unifier of "all against GERB" in a "two in one" vote. It would be even more convenient for him if Borissov accepts the challenge and face him in a presidential confrontation. Then the political division will intensify and mobilize the maximum number of voters. It is now clear that in this case the loser will collapse. And Borissov has to lose much more than Radev. As it was already underlined, for the past three and a half years, the president has been a clear and consistent opponent of the current GERB government. He even went so far as to withdraw his confidence in this government. However, in these three and a half years, two electoral processes have taken place – European and local elections. GERB won both elections. It was the first political power, which means that Radev’s view is respected only by some Bulgarian citizens, but not by all. Radev has taken on the role of a party in a political process and is clearly positioned as an opposition, but that does not mean he is tilting the plate in one direction or the other. 3 It remains to be seen whether something different will happen in the parliamentary election, but even if it does, that is, if GERB is not the first political power, that does not mean it happened because of Radev.
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