The Bulgarians Voted in March to Elect a New Parliament and the Coalition

The Bulgarians voted in March to elect a new Parliament and the coalition between the winning party Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) and United Patriots (UP) has now been officially confirmed. 2017 is a crucial year for Europe, with France and Germany also going to the polls, and this DeHavilland EU briefing takes a first look at the results and what this could mean for the future of the EU.

With all the votes now counted, the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, secured its victory with 33% of the votes. However, this fell short of an absolute majority, which meant that coalition building was unavoidable, and very few viable options were available. Nonetheless, victory by GERB also resulted in the pro-Russian anti- CETA socialist party BSP being left on the side-lines. The voter turnout was at around 54%, similarly to the previous Parliament elections in 2014.

Boyko Borisov, the leader of the GERB party, has agreed in April on a coalition with a trio of far-right parties, acting under the banner of United Patriots (UP), and the Bulgarian Parliament endorsed the coalition on the 4th of May. The main challenge now will be the execution of the balancing act between

deeper integration into the EU and the UP’s push for closer ties with Russia. This volatile combination of political forces may result in yet another collapse of the government unless Boyko Borisov ensures both sides compromise where necessary.

Following the defeat of Tsetska Tsacheva, the ruling centre-right GERB party’s presidential candidate, in November 2016, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov announced that he and his cabinet would resign. Since then, Bulgarian politics has been in a state of flux. The subsequent failure of the political parties to form a new government led the new President, Rumen Radev, to call a snap general election for Sunday 26 March.

After this call was made, President Radev appointed Ognyan Gerdzhikov as interim Prime Minister and dissolved Parliament. As recent media reports have noted, Prime Minister Gerdzhikov has sought to ensure that the election would not be subject to undue Turkish influence given there are more than 400,000 Bulgarian nationals living in Turkey.

Bulgarians have been well-versed in heading to the polls of late – having voted in general elections in May 2013 and October 2014. This alludes to the volatile nature of Bulgarian politics which is unwelcome as Bulgaria is set to take over the Council’s rotating Presidency on 1 January 2018.

 GERB – Boyko Borisov's party has come  BSP – Despite improving on their vote first again, meaning that he will become share from the last election, the Socialist Prime Minister for a third time and forms a BSP have not made any real progress since governing coalition. The party will see this 2013 in terms of representation and were as an important renewed mandate, having not able to seriously challenge GERB for called this snap election after it lost in power. The party extend their spell in November's presidential election to opposition, having been out of power since independent Rumen Radev. 2009 and not won an election since 2005.

 EU – The institutions will be glad to see pro-  Reformist Bloc – Formed 2013, the centre- European GERB winning the election, even right Reformist Bloc quickly rose to if they may have to rely on coalition prominence, taking a seat in the European partners less enthralled with the EU. Parliament and 23 seats in 2014 national Perhaps equally important is that Bulgaria assembly elections. They had hoped to be a will now be able to send a Commissioner to junior coalition partner if GERB won, but Brussels for the first time since October failed to get a single seat after receiving 2016. Europe will hope Bulgaria can secure under 5 per cent of the popular vote. a stable government before it takes on

rotating Council Presidency on 1 January

2018.

 The far-right – Both the nationalist United Patriots and populist newcomer Volya – founded and led by businessman Veselin Mareshki – have gained seats in parliament. Now UP also secured a position in the coalition government.

DOST RB 3% 3%

Volya GERB 4.2% 32.6%

DB-G 3% DPS 8.9%

UP 9.1%

BSP 27%

*Source: Europe Elects (the final results are subject to change)

"Congratulations to Boyko Borissov and GERB! Good to see that the European path of Bulgaria continues" – Manfred Weber, EPP leader

"EPP member party GERB wins parliamentary elections in Bulgaria. Citizens have backed stable EU orientation" – Eva Maydell, Bulgarian MEP

"We will not participate in a coalition with GERB. If they fail to form a government and the mandate is handed to us, we will attempt to form a cabinet" - Kornelia Ninova, BSP leader

The election’s result, perhaps, was a breath of fresh air for the shaky EU, even if Bulgarian elections paled in comparison to the coverage that Dutch elections received earlier. Had the story been different and BSP would have won the elections, the EU would have to face a country with a pro- Russia stance that would have sought to scrap sanctions against Russia, find funds for Russian- backed South Stream and Belene energy projects, and oppose CETA, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada.

Similarly, DOST, a new heavily pro-Ankara party did not pass the 4% threshold necessary to enter the Parliament, which is a relief for those fearful of the possibility that Turkey may have had an impact on the national elections.

Under the GERB and its charismatic leader and ex-bodyguard Boyko Borisov, the centre-right party is both pro-EU and pro-NATO that is out to tackle rampant corruption, crime and implementing economic reforms. GERB is, by and large, a model party that the EU can work with. No less important is its goal to reach the two per cent expenditure threshold for defence, an issue that is currently high on the EU-US relationship agenda. The party also jumped on the bandwagon of promising to handle the issue of migration and finish building the fence that will stride the border with Turkey, for which it has been criticised by human right organisations.

Celebrations on the government formation might be premature as ensuring that the different interests of the coalition members successfully coexist will be the hard part. In light of the political instability of the last three years, a workable and long-term coalition is anything but guaranteed.

Bulgaria must also find a suitable candidate to take on a role within the Commission, following the resignation of Kristalina Georgieva as the Vice-President for Budget & Human Resources. Although no candidates have been put forward so far, rumours are beginning to spread. According to Bulgarian Deputy Premier and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ekaterina Zaharieva, Bulgaria’s new EU Commissioner is likely to receive the Digital Economy portfolio, although she did not give the name of any candidate.

This is the first of a series of DeHavilland EU briefings on this year's elections in Europe. See an introduction to the votes in France and Germany here.

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