The Upcoming Elections Have Increasingly Exacerbated the Political Situation in the Country

Home , Belene, Forward (Belgium), Lilyana Pavlova, Martin Dimitrov, Meglena Kuneva, Simeon Dyankov

The upcoming elections have increasingly exacerbated the political situation in the country. Inflation and growing unemployment have escalated social tensions. A growing number of industry associations and syndicates have requested wage increases. This may result in a wave of protests in the winter which would be used by the opposition parties. Until the elections the GERB ruling party will focus mostly on cam- paigning and highlighting government achievements. The trend of plum- meting confidence in the party is continuing and this will be the main challenge for the governing party on the eve of the elections. Nonethe- less, it remains the frontrunner in terms of electoral influence. Stanishev’s election as PES leader strengthened the BSP’s legitimacy abroad, which may turn out to be an important factor in the election campaign next year. It will rally the party around its leader even more. The list of signatures in favor of a referendum on the Belene Nuclear Power Plant showed the BSP’s mobilizing potential. Bulgaria of the Citizens Movement of Meglena Kuneva will increasingly draw public attention. Opinion polls indicate that the party will almost certainly enter the next Parliament. Kuneva stated clearly that she will run independently in the elections and so far has been avoiding the issue of potential coalitions in the new Parliament. B AROMETE R 3/2012 1

Contents

1. The political, social and economic situation ...... 2 2. Characteristics and development of the party system...... 5 2.1. Tendencies in the right-wing party space...... 5 2.1.1. GERB...... 5 2.1.2. The Blue Coalition (UDF and DSB)...... 6 2.1.3. Ataka...... 7 2.1.4. OLJ...... 7 2.2. Tendencies in the parliamentary opposition: the left-of-center spectrum...... 8 2.2.1. BSP...... 8 2.2.2. MRF...... 9 3. Public opinion...... 9 4. General conclusions and forecasts...... 10 2 B AROMETE R 3/2012

1. The political, social and tourists in Bulgaria earlier on during the winter economic situation tourist season. Siderov recalled that, at the time, when asked about any preventive measures Bul- The political situation in the country over the garia had taken against a possible terrorist at- last quarter is marked by increasing clash- tack, Prime Minister Borissov responded that the es among political forces. One of the main country did not face such a threat since “there is reasons was the terrorist attack at Sarafovo doner kebab at every corner in Bulgaria”. Airport in Burgas, when a suicide bomber The opposition criticized the government blewhimself up beside a bus transporting Is- that in the NSSA annual report for last year raeli tourists. Hours after the attack the Israeli terrorism was not even mentioned as a na- government accused Hezbollah of the terror- tional security threat. ist attack and sent its representatives to assist Premier Borissov responded to the accusa- the Bulgarian authorities in the investigation. tions that no-one was insured against a ter- Almost two months after the terrorist act, rorist act and that it was very hard to prevent it remains unclear who was behind the attack. such an act, quoting as an example similar Nor has the identity of the suicide-bomber acts from around the world. been established, or how he entered the coun- Another important event that impacted try. Interior Minister TsvetanTsvetanov assured the political situation in the country was the that the Bulgarian authorities were doing their EC Report on the Cooperation and Verifica- best to identify the terrorist and to clarify ev- tion Mechanism. The report was preceded erything related to the preparation and the by a scandal that shook the judiciary in the implementation of the attack. In his view, the country. One week before the report was attack was prepared outside the country. published, the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) At a meeting between the governments sacked the head of the Judges’ Union of Bul- of Bulgaria and Israel in Jerusalem in Septem- garia MiroslavaTodorova for delayed publica- ber, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netan- tion of the motives for two sentences that led yahu also declared that the terrorist attack in to the expiration of the statute of limitations Sarafovo was carried out by Hezbollah. Prime of the cases. Judge Todorova has made quite Minister Borissov, however, stated that the in- a stir lately as one of the strongest champi- vestigation had not so far produced conclu- ons of the independence of the judiciary in sive proof as to who was behind the attack. Bulgaria, and especially for having clashed The terrorist attack at Sarafovo Airport vehemently with Interior Minister TsvetanTs- raised some very serious questions before the vetanov who has been verbally attacking Bulgarian state. The condition and the quality the Bulgarian magistrates ever since GERB of the security system became a leading topic. took office. Todorova also brought a libel suit The opposition accused the government of against Minister Tsvetanov. having underestimated the danger of a terrorist Judge Todorova’s dismissal provoked an attack in Bulgaria. ‘Ataka’ leader Volen Siderov unprecedented protest of judges in Bulgaria was most extreme in his judgment and he again in front of the SJC headquarters. This aggra- expounded on the presence of Islamic fundamen- vated the political situation in the country be- talism in Bulgaria. Siderov declared that the Na- fore the publication of the monitoring report tional Security State Agency (NSSA) disregarded and revealed again a series of faults in the information from the Israeli secret service about work of the SJC as well as the lack of clear the potential possibility of attack against Israeli and transparent motives for its rulings. B AROMETE R 3/2012 3

A number of politicians and analysts as- and home affairs, which was denied by the sessed the report of the European Commis- ruling majority, as expected. sion to be one of the most negative ones over In September, the new Supreme Judicial the last five years. It indicated that the moni- Council was elected in Bulgaria. It is bur- toring of Bulgaria continued and the next re- dened with a lot of expectations to reform port would come out at the end of 2013. The adequately the judiciary and to regain public report is critical of the lack of adequate re- confidence. The SJC has 25 members with a forms in the justice and home affairs system, 5-year tenure. The Prosecutor General, the and expresses concern with the growing in- Chairman of the Supreme Court of Cassa- fluence of organized crime in the political and tion (SCC) and the Chairman of the Supreme social life of the country, remaining a “funda- Administrative Court (SAC) are members by mental challenge for the state and society”. right. Eleven of the members are elected by The criticism is the result of the poor closing the National Assembly, and the remaining 11 rate of cases of hired killings as well as of the by the judiciary. For the first time, a public legal constraints regarding the activity of the hearing of the candidates was held before the Specialized Criminal Court and the Special- election. The government took into account ized Prosecutor’s Office. Yet another problem the recommendations from Brussels and from outlined is the lack of results of the witness a number of non-governmental organiza- protection program and the struggle with tions, and opted for an open and transparent corruption in the upper echelons of power procedure. However, a number of NGOs and and the administration. observers remained doubtful of an orches- For the first time in the last five years trated ballot with an anticipated result and an the report spells out concerns regarding the arrangement among the main parties about development of democracy and the division the distribution of the seats from the parlia- of powers in Bulgaria; it emphasizes that mentary quota. Doubts also lingered about government representatives exert pressure advance trade-offs in appointing the candi- on the judiciary with their criticism. In this dates from the judicial quota. The first main context, the report mentions the case of task of the new Supreme Judicial Council will Judge Todorova. be to elect a new Prosecutor General by the Following the publication of the report, end of the year. the opposition launched severe criticism The beginning of the new parliamen- against the government. The BSP leader Stan- tary session showed that the political par- ishev described it as “murderous”. In his view, ties in the country will engage in a harsh the European Commission’s continued moni- election campaign. This became clear from toring of the country is “a red card to Boiko the traditional opening declarations of the Borissov’s governance.” parliamentary parties. In their political dec- Lutfi Mestan from MRF stated that this laration, the ruling party GERB announced report made the country’s entry in Schengen that the party was more united than ever impossible in the foreseeable future, which and stood ready to bring to completion its was a failure for the GERB government. programmatic commitments. The chair- The European Commission report was the man of the parliamentary faction, Krasimir reason for BSP and MRF to submit a fifth vote Velchev, underlined that GERB shall embark of no-confidence against the government, on a policy of income increase as of 2013. motivated by its failure in the area of justice Besides income increase, GERB also prom- 4 B AROMETE R 3/2012

ised a reduction of the prices of pharmaceu- ment. They also raised the unrealistic idea of tical products, the completion of the health, raising the minimum salary to 1,000 BGN and judiciary and education reforms, as well as the minimum pension to 500 BGN. the continuation of highway construction. The economic situation in the country im- In their declaration, BSP once again de- pacts political discourse and public mood ever clared themselves to be the alternative to the more strongly. It will also influence the politi- government. The leader of the party, Sergei cal situation in the country and will be a major Stanishev, accused the party in power of fo- campaign issue. cusing their actions exclusively on election During this trimester employment is con- goals. He announced the referendum on the tinuing to plummet and unemploymentis Belene Nuclear Power Plant and, guarantee- growing. According to Eurostat data, unem- ing fair elections as other immediate priori- ployment in July was 12.4%. According to ties, BSP also declared that they would come data provided by the National Statistics Insti- up with an alternative budget for 2013. tute, inflation in the country has also gone MRF delivered the most radical declaration up. In August consumer prices went up by of the new season. The party deputy chair- 0.5% compared to July, and inflation was man, Lutfi Mestan, insisted that the National 2.6% from the beginning of the year. There Assembly be dissolved and early elections was a price rise in the entire range of food held. In his view, the majority had exhausted items and in transportation – 2.9%. As of their political resource and GERB relied only August 1 the price of electricity went up by on the accusations against the former gov- 13%, which led to a strong public outcry and ernment without suggesting a single genuine syndicate demands for indexation of wages reform measure. and pensions. The co-chairman of the Blue Coalition, Mar- Given the economic situation, Finance tin Dimitrov, stated that the government has Minister Simeon Dyankov promised a rise in failed in the economic policy, which is evidenced pensions as of April 2013, as well as of bud- by the increase of prices, unemployment, and get salaries. The Minister of Labour and Social the deterioration of all economic indicators. In Policy, Totyo Mladenov, announced that the his view, this led to measures that are typical rise in pensions would be between 8% and of left-wing populism, such as the attempt to 10%. The opposition, in turn, accused GERB control the prices of some food products as an- of pledging money for election purposes nounced by the cabinet in August. Dimitrov de- without being in a position to secure it. In this scribed the grim economic situation, placing a context, the debates on the budget for 2013 particular emphasis on unemployment. Accord- will be extremely tense. ing to him, unemployment grew in the summer In this quarter, energy projects again be- months for the first time since Zhan Videnov’s came a major topic on the political agen- government, which was notoriously remem- da. The Russian company Atomstroyexport bered for the worst economic and financial cri- lodged a claim in the International Court of sis in the country in the late 90s. For one more Arbitration for the amount of 1 billion euro time Martin Dimitrov accused the government on account of the discontinuation of the Be- of tolerating monopolies. lene Nuclear Power Plant. The Bulgarian gov- In their political declaration “Ataka” drew ernment described the claim as unfounded attention to a rise in Roma-related crime and and declared that Bulgaria has the arguments the lack of adequate reaction by the govern- to win the case. B AROMETE R 3/2012 5

In the meantime, in August the US compa- among a number of social groups with the ny Westinghouse won the tender announced economic situation in the country. by the government for a feasibility study re- Internally, the party seems to be ever more garding the possibility of using the Belene divided into various groups and lobbies. This equipment in the construction of a new block became clear during the year with the adop- in the Kozlodui Nuclear Power Plant. tion of lobbyist legislation recognized as such At the end of August, Bulgaria signed not only by the opposition but also by a num- with the Total consortium for the drilling and ber of non-governmental organizations. Ac- exploration for oil and gas on the continental cording to analysts, this process will intensify shelf of the Black Sea in ‘The Khan Asparuh as the elections and the end of this govern- Block 1-21’. The exploration contract is for ment’s term draw closer. five years, for the amount of 1 billion euro. The party is losing electoral support in a The expectations are to find gas deposits of number of regions throughout the country. The 40 to 80 billion cubic meters. According to following regions are considered most prob- experts, this amount should meet Bulgaria’s lematic: Targovishte, Razgrad, Shumen, Kyus- demand for 20 to 30 years. tendil, and Vratsa. This led to the replacement Upcoming elections brought about of the district leader of GERB in Targovishte – the emergence of new political subjects. Lily Boyanova. The deputy leader of the GERB Among these, Meglena Kuneva’s party, the parliamentary faction, Todor Dimitrov, also had Bulgaria-of-the Citizens Movement, which to part with the same posting in Razgrad. is already registered as a political party, has The main clash among different lobbies the biggest chance of entering the next Par- in the party will grow harsher in the process liament. The new party positioned itself to of drafting the MPs’ tickets for the elec- the right of center. Meglena Kuneva said tions. The party announced that the future that her party aims to govern the country parliamentary faction of GERB for the next independently and declared to be an op- parliament would be drafted according to position and alternative to the ruling party. a new formula. It is expected that, besides She stated firmly that the party will run in leading MPs, ministers and regional gover- the election on its own. The civic associa- nors, popular public figures would also be tion of the same name continues to operate included aiming at a renewal of the party’s alongside the party. image. As Premier Boiko Borissov said, the party would place its faith in new faces from 2. Characteristics and development its youth organization. of the party system A major weakness of the current parliamentary faction is the lack of activity of a large 2.1. Tendencies in the right-wing group of its MPs. GERB intend to carry out a party space large-scale survey by regions, which is expected to bring forward leading public figures of 2.1.1. GERB the party in the regional centers in the country. GERB have practically started their prepara- In September, Interior Minister Tsvetan tion for the parliamentary elections next year Tsvetanov and the GERB MP from the Kurdjali since this trimester. A major challenge for electoral district, Tsveta Karayancheva, met in the party is to handle the downsides of gov- the National Assembly with expats from Tur- ernance and the growing public discontent key, led by the chairman of the Bulturk expat 6 B AROMETE R 3/2012

organization, Rafet Uluturk. It is very likely According to the results of the ballot on that, as a result of this meeting a GERB party June 15, 85% of the party members took part office is opened in Turkey, which will be com- in the vote. Kabaivanov was elected to be the bined with a visit of Tsvetan Tsvetanov to dis- new UDF leader with a total of 3,941 votes cuss party matters. The Bulgarian expats who against 3,652 votes for Sharkov. attended the meeting pledged serious sup- Emil Kabaivanov is less known to the gen- port in the elections. Tsveta Karayancheva has eral public. He was trained as a doctor and an visited Turkey twice this year and met with economist. He has been a UDF member since local political leaders and expat civic associa- 1992. In 1999 – 2003 he chaired the Municipal tions. GERB announced this as a positive de- Council in Karlovo; he was mayor of the town velopment, which indicated that MRF was no from 2003 until 2007. He started his second longer the sole intermediary in the dialogue term as mayor in 2011. He led the ‘National between Bulgaria and the Bulgarians of Turk- Coordination’ department in the UDF head- ish origin living in Turkey. quarters in Sofia from 2007 till 2011. GERB announced that the main goal of The new UDF leader firmly supports the ces- the party was winning the elections with an sation of the relations between UDF and DSB. In absolute majority, which would guarantee his view, the Blue Coalition failed in enhancing the continuation of the reforms started by the confidence in the UDF. The new course is aimed government and the completion of the infra- at changing this state of affairs. structural projects. He denies the existence of two power centers or two UDFs. He is resolute that rela- 2.1.2. The Blue Coalition (UDF and DSB) tions will be based on the adherence to the In early July the first round for the election of party statute and principles. He insists on a new leader of UDF was held. This special observing the principle that the political de- vote was necessitated by the resignation of cisions of the national UDF bodies are man- the former party chairman Martin Dimitrov in datory for all European and national MPs, mid-May. He resigned because the supreme municipal counselors and mayors. Regard- party body refused to support the continua- less of these statements, the group around tion of the Blue Coalition in the next elections. the former leader Martin Dimitrov and the Five candidates participated in the first MP Vanyo Sharkovis expected to join DSB in round: the members of parliament, Vanyo the elections next year. Sharkov and Lachezar Toshev; the deputy In this context, it is interesting to note chairman of the party, Rumen Hristov; Ivan the views expressed by prominent UDF poli- Sotirov; and the mayor of the town of Kar- ticians following Emil Kabaivanov’s election. lovo, Emil Kabaivanov. One day before the The MEP Nadezhda Neinski stated that with first round, Rumen Hristov withdrew from the this election the UDF has resigned from large- race. He endorsed Emil Kabaivanov. The ballot scale national politics and has become a party led to a run-off between Emil Kababaivanov of exclusively supportive functions. and Vanyo Sharkov. They stood for two differ- After the collapse of the Blue Coalition, ent visions about the future of UDF. Emil Ka- DSB began preparations to run independently baivanov had the support of those opposing in the elections next year. At the same time, the coalition with DSB. On the other hand, it is also looking for partners in the current the MP Vanyo Sharkov was favoured by the format of the Blue Coalition – agrarians and defenders of the Blue Coalition. social-democrats. B AROMETE R 3/2012 7

This trimester also revealed DSB’s growing The party launched a number of other criticism of the ruling party. It is aimed against populist legislative proposals, such as for the the impact of monopolies, the price increase in yield of natural resources to be carried out by food products and the lack of judicial reform. the Bulgarian state and for the profit to remain DSB accuses GERB of intentionally ruining in Bulgaria, terminating all concessions of for- small businesses “to favour monopolies that eign companies that carry out such activity. are close to the ruling establishment” as stated “Ataka” opposed the government con- by the DSB deputy chairman Radan Kanev. tract concluded with Total for exploration and yield of oil and gas in the Black Sea. In Volen 2.1.3. “Ataka” Siderov’s view, in the future “a foreign com- The terrorist act in Burgas was the cause of pany” might be selling Bulgaria Bulgarian oil “Ataka” taking up again the subject of the and gas. Therefore, “Ataka” declared that threat of Islamic fundamentalism in the coun- they will introduce legislative amendments to try. Siderov accused the current and the for- settle these issues. Siderov pointed out that if mer governments of a “vassal” policy vis-a-vis the ruling party declined these amendments it the West, the United States and Israel that led would mean that the government was oper- to the terrorist attack in Burgas. He launched ating against Bulgarian national interest. direct accusations against the Foreign Minis- During this quarter, the tendency of rap- ter, Nikolay Mladenov, for his initiative in sup- prochement between “Ataka” and VMRO – port of the opposition in Syria. Siderov labeled BND, led by Krasimir Karakachanov, is about it as a short-sighted action, jeopardizing the to become an institutional arrangement. Ev- country’s national security. erything indicates that the parties will run to- As a part of the preparations for next year’s gether in the elections next year. Krasimir Kara- elections, “Ataka” proposed amendments to kachanov launched the idea of a patriotic and the Assemblies, Rallies and Demonstrations nationalistic block in an open letter to “Ataka”, Act for a ban on the use of a foreign language to Volen Siderov’s former party fellow Valeri during public rallies and demonstrations re- Simeonov and his party National Front for Bul- gardless of whether they are held before or garia’s Salvation, to former “Ataka” MP and during an election campaign. This comes as leader of “Defense”, Yordan Velichkov, and to a counter-balance to the MRF proposal for other patriotic formations. amendments to the Election Code to allow Although Volen Siderov and Valeri Sime- for the election campaign to be carried out in onov have been in conflict over the past year, a non-Bulgarian language. The National As- which led to a split in “Ataka”, they seem to sembly voted down the MRF proposal. have overcome their discord, guided by political “Ataka” did not betray itself and went on expediency and the desire to be elected again. with its social populism and during this trimester it continued to pursue the topics of price 2.1.4. OLJ control and the struggle against monopolies. The past trimester outlined ever more clearly The party demanded Angel Semerdjiev’s res- a new political project between OLJ and the ignation as chairman of the State Energy and Varna businessman, Veselin Mareshki. The Water Regulating Commission because of latter is a Bulgarian millionaire who owns a the increase in electricity prices. “Ataka” also pharmacy chain throughout the country. Until tabled a proposal for a moratorium on bread three years ago he was municipal counselor prices, which was declined by Parliament. in Varna and deputy chairman of the Munici- 8 B AROMETE R 3/2012

pal Council elected on the OLJ ticket. In 2009, er – the fight against corruption and organized however, he was expelled from the OLJ MEP crime, Bulgaria’s membership in Schengen, ticket on suspicion of buying votes. In the improvement of living standards and raising elections for mayor of Varna last year Maresh- incomes. According to BSP, bankruptcy, col- ki made it to the run-off. lapse in economic growth and unprecedented Mareshki is a controversial individual, con- unemployment took place instead. stantly under scrutiny for having held his cam- The topic of the Belene Nuclear Power paigns with purchased votes and a controlled Plant was brought up again by BSP submitting ballot based on his pharmacy chain. 770,000 signatures in Parliament, demanding According to a number of observers, the a referendum on the fate of the plant. new line of interaction between OLJ and According to the law, all signatures must Mareshki is the product of political engineer- be verified within three months and a refer- ing of circles related to the GERB ruling party. endum date set. The BSP leader Sergei Stan- In all probability, OLJ and Mareshki will be ishev declared that he expected the National used for defaming PR against GERB’s political assembly to abide by the law and set the ref- opponents. It is no accident at all that both erendum date in due time. He maintains that Yane Yanev and Mareshki started a tough any attempt of the ruling party to discomfit campaign against Meglena Kuneva, who has its holding would mean transgression of the emerged as one of the most vocal critics of Constitution of the country. the governing party. During the past trimester BSP undertook a The MPs from GERB and OLJ jointly voted few more initiatives. The member of the party primary amendments to the Political Parties leadership, Yanaki Stoilov, announced that Act. They were introduced by Yane Yanev the BSP will submit a proposal for the state and deal with limiting the possibility of asso- to pay for the insurance of the unemployed ciations to develop into political parties, and registered in the Unemployment Bureau. He of party names to be borrowed from already went on to specify that this idea would un- registered associations and non-governmen- dergo public discussion before specific draft tal organizations. legislation would be submitted. OLJ made one more proposal regarding In mid-September BSP’s National Council the Election Code. Yane Yanev maintains that decided that the parliamentary faction of Co- the parliamentary threshold for coalitions alition for Bulgaria would submit a request in should be amended – while it could remain the National Assembly to suspend the privati- unchanged for a two-party coalition at 4%, it zation procedures of the Bulgarian State Rail- should be raised by 1% for every other party ways – Cargo Transport, ‘Terem’, VMZ – Sopot, that may join in. Technoexportstroy, as well as of the minority shares in the energy provider companies. 2.2. Tendencies in the parliamentary The elections for chairman of PES in this opposition: the left-of-center spectrum quarter were particularly important for BSP. At the end of July BSP voted a decision to put 2.2.1. BSP forward the candidacy of Sergei Stanishev for During the past quarter BSP intensified its the position. criticism to the ruling party. They criticized the He was an interim chairman from late 2011 failed implementation of undertaken commit- until the PES congress in September 2012 which ments which brought the ruling party to pow- elected him as chairman. At the end of August B AROMETE R 3/2012 9

Sergei Stanishev was elected Vice President of The local conferences will be followed by the Socialist International at its 24th congress. regional conferences in the autumn. This election is recognition of Stanishev Next year’s elections may prove to be es- and his work as leader of the BSP over recent pecially hard for MRF, the reason being the years, as well as for his international activity. desire of other parties to break through its It will enhance the international legitimacy of traditional electorate. The attempts of GERB the party in the context of next year’s elections. to mobilize the expatriate organizations in Former president Georgi Parvanov, who Turkey in its favor were mentioned earlier. withdrew from the race for the leadership po- BSP also indicated that they were not giv- sition in BSP at the end of May, announced ing up the local vote and the party created a his intention to become actively engaged po- new unit to operate in the areas with mixed litically in the autumn. Parvanov stated clearly population, led by Milko Bagdasarov. that he had no intentions to run for member It has become clear in the last three of parliament but intended to use his author- months that the former MRF MPs, Kasim Dal ity for the success of the left. He will obviously and Korman Ismailov, will start a new party in try to play the role of informal leader and at- the autumn, which will be yet another chal- tempt to influence the political process and lenge for MRF. the BSP agenda with his public statements. 3. Public opinion 2.2.2. MRF The local annual conferences of MRF have con- A Sova Harris national poll conducted between tinued over the past three months. They serve 17 and 23 September among 1,000 respon- for the preparation of the party for the parlia- dents indicated that, if the parliamentary elec- mentary elections next year. The conferences tions were to be held this autumn, they would in the regions of traditional MRF ascendancy be won by GERB. It would receive 27.8% of the – Kardjali, Silistra, Burgas, Targovishte, Shumen vote. BSP would come second with 19.2%. The and Razgrad – are of particular interest. ratio between the two main opponents is 3:2, Muzaffer Mustan, the outgoing chairman or an electoral ceiling of 1.5 million votes for and sole candidate for the position, was re- GERB and 1 million for BSP. The election of Ser- elected as leader in Razgrad. In his report on the gei Stanishev as PES chairman is expected to en- work of the local organization he emphasized hance his support among the Bulgarian voters. that it established itself as a leading force in the Almost 27% of the respondents believe that municipality. He also declared his desire to facili- this will increase BSP’s electoral weight as well. tate the full-fledged activity of the local clubs. Meglena Kuneva’s new party, Bulgaria In Kardjali the position was taken by Mu- of the Citizens Movement, comes third with harem Muharem, with 143 votes against 120 4.6%. A slight drop is noted in the support votes for his opponent Giundiuz Ismail. for MRF: 4.6%. The break-up of the Blue Co- In Burgas Sherafet Mehmed was elected al- alition continues to impact negatively the re- most unanimously to lead the local MRF orga- sults of the two parties in it. UDF still enjoys nization. He replaced the outgoing leader, Selim slightly higher electoral support: 2.4%, com- Isa, and declared that he was going to continue pared to DSB with 1.7%. The ‘Ataka’ party his course of team work and securing employ- receives 2.4% of the respondents’ votes. ment for the voters. Selim Isa was nominated The survey shows that all ministers have for the position of regional representative. a negative rating. The Minister of Finance, 10 B AROMETE R 3/2012

Simeon Dyankov, gets the highest disapprov- will be the subject of disputes and discussions al: 67.2% are of the opinion that he does not by political parties. handle his job well. Frontrunners in this rat- The economic situation in the country, es- ing are Totyo Mladenov with 62.5% negative pecially inflation and growing unemployment, scores, Desislava Atanasova with 54% and have escalated social tensions. An increasing Tsvetan Tsvetanov with 52.1%. number of industry associations and syndicates The Minister of Regional Development and have requested wage increases. This may re- Public Works, Lilyana Pavlova, has the highest sult in a wave of protests in the winter, which approval of 47.6%. For yet another successive would be used by the opposition parties. time the minister of this sector leads in the rat- The new Supreme Judicial Council is bur- ing. She is followed by Nikolay Mladenov with dened with a lot of expectations to move 39.4%, and Vezhdi Rashidov with 33.8% forward with the reform of the judiciary and Over the past six months the share of to draw up transparent mechanisms and those who believe that the failures of the rul- procedures, both in personnel selection and ing party are more than the achievements has in performance evaluation. The election of gone up by 6%. According to 18.4% the gov- Prosecutor General, which will be one of the ernment is a complete failure. first tasks of the new SJC, will be of para- The data of the survey indicates that for 45% mount importance with regard to combat- of the people the construction of the Belene NPP ting organized crime and corruption. The is important to the country, while 30% think it expectations are for a transparent process does not matter. If a referendum is to be held on of election and competition among estab- this question, 56% will take part in it. Two large lished authorities and professionals. This is groups are formed on this matter. The first group especially important in view of the on-going comprises the supporters of BSP, MRF, ‘Ataka’, monitoring of the country under the Coop- VMRO - BND, and NFSB. In their view, the con- eration and Verification Mechanism. struction of the Belene NPP is a national prior- 2. In the time until the elections the GERB ity, which would bring Bulgaria into the group ruling party will focus mainly on campaign- of high-technology countries. The second group ing and highlighting the accomplishments of consists of supporters of GERB, UDF and DSB the government. The trend of decreasing con- who put forward financial and ecological argu- fidence in the party is continuing and it will ments. The supporters of the Bulgaria of the Citi- be a major challenge for the party in power zens Movement hesitate between the two views. ahead of the vote. In the view of 61.7% of the voters the Delayed reforms in health care and in the social policy and specifically the problems public sector are less and less likely to happen. of jobs, unemployment and living standards GERB have practically started their election must be a priority for the next government. campaign engaging the entire government in numerous public events related to the con- 4. General conclusions and forecasts struction of infrastructure projects, which are covered abundantly by the media. 1. The upcoming elections have increasing- Apparently GERB, similarly to previous ly exacerbated the political situation in the governments, will be using the trump card of country. The fact that even the terrorist attack pre-election increase of wages and pensions, in Burgas was politicized shows that in the which may impact negatively the economic coming months every important social issue recovery of the country in the medium term. B AROMETE R 3/2012 11

On the other hand, tensions within the of typical extreme populism against foreign GERB party are growing. Various lobbies and investors, monopolies, protectionism for Bul- influence groups are already fighting each garian business, price controls, etc. other over seats on the party election lists. A trend of unification of nationalistic for- 3. The election of Emil Kabaivanov as UDF mations is under way. The involvement of leader made the split in the Blue Coalition more Krasimir Karakachanov’s VMRO-BND in this real. The UDF is now divided into two camps. process indicates that nationalists in Bulgaria One is led by the former leader Martin Dimitrov, are looking at a broader alliance for the next Vanyo Sharkov, and other parliamentarians who elections. Opinion polls in the last few years will conduct common policy with DSB in the have shown a nationalist electoral potential parliamentary faction of the Blue Coalition. The of 6 – 8%. It is still questionable, however, other camp is headed by the new UDF leader whether ‘Ataka’ and VMRO-BND will manage supported by Boris Markov and Rumen Hristov to mobilize the major part of this potential. who pursue a line of rapprochement with GERB 5. In the past three months OLJ has yield- and are looking for a new coalition formula ex- ed totally to GERB and become an instrument cluding Ivan Kostov’s DSB. This division in the of defamatory PR against its political oppo- Blue party has a very negative effect on its elec- nents from the opposition. The parliamentary toral potential. The traditional right in Bulgaria inquiry committee, which was set up on Yane running in the elections in two separate blocks Yanev’s proposal and was supported by GERB diminishes their chances of being elected in the to investigate corruption in the high echelons next parliament. of power, will probably take up issues relat- DSB and the group around Martin Dimi- ed to the previous government. Its work will trov will be looking for partners among other hardly bring any real result; it will rather aim smaller right-wing parties like Petya Stavreva’s at drawing public attention to well-known United Agrarians and Yordan Nehrizov’s so- cases which did not lead to real law-suits. cial-democrats. It will hardly bring them suc- A new political project is forming around cess in the elections, however. OLJ with the participation of the business- Leadership fights in the right-wing parties, man, Veselin Mareshki. This is yet another and the outside influence of other political indicator that the creation of ‘spoiler’ parties parties and groups hamper the unification of with GERB support will be part of the govern- the traditional Bulgarian right. ment’s pre-election tactics. There are divisions in the local UDF and In the coming months Yanev will stake on DSB party cells as well. In a number of places strong populism and criticism against GERB’s in the country there is a spill-over to Meglena opponents. The use of discrediting informa- Kuneva’s new party. This development further tion and political smear to slander the political decreases the chances of UDF and DSB over- opponents is a typical OLJ tactic, which was coming the 4% election threshold. aimed until recently against the ruling party, 4. The terrorist attack in Burgas amplified and its use again is not to be excluded. Yanev’s the anti-Islamic rhetoric of ‘Ataka’ and Vo- opportunistic turn to GERB shows a lack of len Siderov. Siderov will further increase his principle which can hardly motivate the voters populist criticism of the government in the to support his party in the elections. area of national security, against the policy 6. Stanishev’s election as PES leader gave of Roma integration and Roma-related petty BSP strong legitimacy abroad, which may turn crime. On the other hand, he will make use out to be an important factor in the course of 12 B AROMETE R 3/2012

the campaign next year. This will further close solution of the National Assembly and hold- the party’s ranks around its leader and leader- ing early parliamentary elections. Relations ship fights will remain in the background. The between GERB and MRF will be increasingly signatures collected for a referendum on Be- tense and hostile. One reason for this is the lene NPP evidenced the mobilization resources attempts of GERB to break up the MRF party of BSP on the eve of the elections. Regardless monopoly in areas of mixed population. Find- of the fact that the project remains economi- ing ways to consolidate its electorate is a ma- cally controversial, this issue will continue jor challenge for MRF, given the risk of spill- to be a leading election issue in the coming over of the traditional MRF vote as a result of months and BSP will exploit it in the context the creation of the new party by Kasim Dal. of rising consumer prices of electricity. 8. The Bulgaria of the Citizens Movement Within the party, Stanishev continues to iso- led by Meglena Kuneva will attract stronger late the functionaries who were close to former public attention. Opinion polls indicate that president Parvanov. This process is likely to go the party is almost certain to be elected in the on during the nominations for the election lists. new parliament. Kuneva firmly stated her in- It may provoke tensions in some local party cells. tention to run independently and avoids any 7. MRF is growing more and more criti- questions about potential coalitions in the cal of the ruling party. It was no coincidence new parliament. The new party positioned it- that in its declaration at the opening of the self to the right and will seek membership in new parliamentary session MRF called for dis- the European People’s Party.

Acronyms of political parties:

GERB – Citizens for the European Develop- ment of Bulgaria BSP – Bulgarian Socialist Party About the editor: MRF – Movement of Rights and Freedoms UDF – Union of Democratic Forces Professor, Doctor of Philosophy, Georgi Kara- DSB – Democrats for Strong Bulgaria simeonov, teaches in the ‘St.Kliment of Ohrid’ OLJ – Order, Legality and Justice University of Sofia; he is the director of the VMRO – BND – Internal Macedonian revo- Institute of Political and Legal Studies and is lutionary Organization – Bulgarian National editor-in-chief of the Political Studies Journal. Movement He was chairman of the Bulgarian Association NFSB – National Front for the Salvation of Bul- of Political Science from 1991 till 1998. garia Contact: [email protected] PES – Party of European Socialists The upcoming elections have increasingly exacerbated the political situation in the country. Inflation and growing unemployment have escalated social tensions. A growing number of industry associations and syndicates have requested wage increases. This may result in a wave of protests in the winter which would be used by the opposition parties. Until the elections the GERB ruling party will focus mostly on cam- paigning and highlighting government achievements. The trend of plum- meting confidence in the party is continuing and this will be the main challenge for the governing party on the eve of the elections. Nonethe- less, it remains the frontrunner in terms of electoral influence. Stanishev’s election as PES leader strengthened the BSP’slegitimacy abroad, which may turn out to be an important factor in the election campaign next year. It will rally the party around its leader even more. The list of signatures in favor of a referendum on the Belene Nuclear Power Plant showed the BSP’s mobilizing potential. Bulgaria of the Citizens Movement of Meglena Kuneva will increasingly draw public attention. Opinion polls indicate that the party will almost certainly enter the next Parliament. Kuneva stated clearly that she will run independently in the elections and so far has been avoiding the issue of potential coalitions in the new Parliament.