The upcoming elections have increasingly exacerbated the political situation in the country. Inflation and growing unemployment have es- calated social tensions. A growing number of industry associations and syndicates have requested wage increases. This may result in a wave of protests in the winter which would be used by the opposition parties. Until the elections the GERB ruling party will focus mostly on cam- paigning and highlighting government achievements. The trend of plum- meting confidence in the party is continuing and this will be the main challenge for the governing party on the eve of the elections. Nonethe- less, it remains the frontrunner in terms of electoral influence. Stanishev’s election as PES leader strengthened the BSP’s legitimacy abroad, which may turn out to be an important factor in the election cam- paign next year. It will rally the party around its leader even more. The list of signatures in favor of a referendum on the Belene Nuclear Power Plant showed the BSP’s mobilizing potential. Bulgaria of the Citizens Movement of Meglena Kuneva will increas- ingly draw public attention. Opinion polls indicate that the party will al- most certainly enter the next Parliament. Kuneva stated clearly that she will run independently in the elections and so far has been avoiding the issue of potential coalitions in the new Parliament. B AROMETE R 3/2012 1 CONTENTS 1. The political, social and economic situation .............................................................................................2 2. Characteristics and development of the party system ...............................................................................5 2.1. Tendencies in the right-wing party space ...............................................................................................5 2.1.1. GERB .................................................................................................................................................5 2.1.2. The Blue Coalition (UDF and DSB) ......................................................................................................6 2.1.3. Ataka .................................................................................................................................................7 2.1.4. OLJ ....................................................................................................................................................7 2.2. Tendencies in the parliamentary opposition: the left-of-center spectrum ................................................8 2.2.1. BSP ....................................................................................................................................................8 2.2.2. MRF ...................................................................................................................................................9 3. Public opinion ..........................................................................................................................................9 4. General conclusions and forecasts ..........................................................................................................10 2 B AROMETE R 3/2012 1. The political, social and tourists in Bulgaria earlier on during the winter economic situation tourist season. Siderov recalled that, at the time, when asked about any preventive measures Bul- The political situation in the country over the garia had taken against a possible terrorist at- last quarter is marked by increasing clash- tack, Prime Minister Borissov responded that the es among political forces. One of the main country did not face such a threat since “there is reasons was the terrorist attack at Sarafovo doner kebab at every corner in Bulgaria”. Airport in Burgas, when a suicide bomber The opposition criticized the government blewhimself up beside a bus transporting Is- that in the NSSA annual report for last year raeli tourists. Hours after the attack the Israeli terrorism was not even mentioned as a na- government accused Hezbollah of the terror- tional security threat. ist attack and sent its representatives to assist Premier Borissov responded to the accusa- the Bulgarian authorities in the investigation. tions that no-one was insured against a ter- Almost two months after the terrorist act, rorist act and that it was very hard to prevent it remains unclear who was behind the attack. such an act, quoting as an example similar Nor has the identity of the suicide-bomber acts from around the world. been established, or how he entered the coun- Another important event that impacted try. Interior Minister TsvetanTsvetanov assured the political situation in the country was the that the Bulgarian authorities were doing their EC Report on the Cooperation and Verifica- best to identify the terrorist and to clarify ev- tion Mechanism. The report was preceded erything related to the preparation and the by a scandal that shook the judiciary in the implementation of the attack. In his view, the country. One week before the report was attack was prepared outside the country. published, the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) At a meeting between the governments sacked the head of the Judges’ Union of Bul- of Bulgaria and Israel in Jerusalem in Septem- garia MiroslavaTodorova for delayed publica- ber, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netan- tion of the motives for two sentences that led yahu also declared that the terrorist attack in to the expiration of the statute of limitations Sarafovo was carried out by Hezbollah. Prime of the cases. Judge Todorova has made quite Minister Borissov, however, stated that the in- a stir lately as one of the strongest champi- vestigation had not so far produced conclu- ons of the independence of the judiciary in sive proof as to who was behind the attack. Bulgaria, and especially for having clashed The terrorist attack at Sarafovo Airport vehemently with Interior Minister TsvetanTs- raised some very serious questions before the vetanov who has been verbally attacking Bulgarian state. The condition and the quality the Bulgarian magistrates ever since GERB of the security system became a leading topic. took office. Todorova also brought a libel suit The opposition accused the government of against Minister Tsvetanov. having underestimated the danger of a terrorist Judge Todorova’s dismissal provoked an attack in Bulgaria. ‘Ataka’ leader Volen Siderov unprecedented protest of judges in Bulgaria was most extreme in his judgment and he again in front of the SJC headquarters. This aggra- expounded on the presence of Islamic fundamen- vated the political situation in the country be- talism in Bulgaria. Siderov declared that the Na- fore the publication of the monitoring report tional Security State Agency (NSSA) disregarded and revealed again a series of faults in the information from the Israeli secret service about work of the SJC as well as the lack of clear the potential possibility of attack against Israeli and transparent motives for its rulings. B AROMETE R 3/2012 3 A number of politicians and analysts as- and home affairs, which was denied by the sessed the report of the European Commis- ruling majority, as expected. sion to be one of the most negative ones over In September, the new Supreme Judicial the last five years. It indicated that the moni- Council was elected in Bulgaria. It is bur- toring of Bulgaria continued and the next re- dened with a lot of expectations to reform port would come out at the end of 2013. The adequately the judiciary and to regain public report is critical of the lack of adequate re- confidence. The SJC has 25 members with a forms in the justice and home affairs system, 5-year tenure. The Prosecutor General, the and expresses concern with the growing in- Chairman of the Supreme Court of Cassa- fluence of organized crime in the political and tion (SCC) and the Chairman of the Supreme social life of the country, remaining a “funda- Administrative Court (SAC) are members by mental challenge for the state and society”. right. Eleven of the members are elected by The criticism is the result of the poor closing the National Assembly, and the remaining 11 rate of cases of hired killings as well as of the by the judiciary. For the first time, a public legal constraints regarding the activity of the hearing of the candidates was held before the Specialized Criminal Court and the Special- election. The government took into account ized Prosecutor’s Office. Yet another problem the recommendations from Brussels and from outlined is the lack of results of the witness a number of non-governmental organiza- protection program and the struggle with tions, and opted for an open and transparent corruption in the upper echelons of power procedure. However, a number of NGOs and and the administration. observers remained doubtful of an orches- For the first time in the last five years trated ballot with an anticipated result and an the report spells out concerns regarding the arrangement among the main parties about development of democracy and the division the distribution of the seats from the parlia- of powers in Bulgaria; it emphasizes that mentary quota. Doubts also lingered about government representatives exert pressure advance trade-offs in appointing the candi- on the judiciary with their criticism. In this dates from the judicial quota. The first main context, the report mentions the case of task of the new Supreme Judicial Council will Judge Todorova. be to elect a new Prosecutor General by the Following the