The Last Few Months of the Current Year Will Be Extremely Important for the Government of the GERB Party. the Government Is Faci

The last few months of the current year will be extremely important for the government of the GERB Party. The government is facing serious challenges connected both with overcoming the consequences from the economic crisis and promoting the reforms of the public sector, which has virtually been on the verge of a total collapse over the past year. This holds especially true of the sectors of healthcare, education, pension reform. The major challenge, which the governing majority will be facing, is the fulfillment of this year’s government budget. Although the first symptoms of bottoming-out of the crisis have been observed, the magnitude of the budget deficit may well exceed the government forecasts. This is likely to have an adverse effect on the parliamentary procedure of passing the 2011 country’s budget. Should this happen, a wave of discontent and protests could be expected on the part of the various professions working in the public sector. For its part, this could undermine the confidence rating of the GERB Party and the incumbent government. This may also entail additional Cabinet re-shuffles and ministerial resignations to the purpose of deflating public discontent. The Blue Coalition has increasingly been distancing itself from the GERB Par- ty. Upon the opening of the new parliamentary session at the National Assembly, the co-chairs of the Blue Coalition warned that their coalition holds considerable reserves as regards the economic policy GERB has been pursuing, which may become the occasion for the coalition members to reconsider their support for the governing majority. Despite the current grave economic situation in the country, the BSP cannot be recognized as a real alternative to the governing majority. Moreover, during this quarter as well, the electoral support for the party has remained at a very low level. Nonetheless, the BSP continues to be the second largest political force in the country, as there is no other genuine entity in the left-wing political environment, which could compete with the BSP for the votes of the left-wing electorate. The BSP and the MRF have finally agreed to table a non-confidence vote against the government on account of the failure of its healthcare policy. This initiative was launched by the BSP and mainly aims at capturing public attention on the eve of its Congress Session in October. This session, however, is hardly likely to bring about substantial changes, marking the beginning of a new stage in the development of the party. 3/2010 1

Table of Contents

Table of Contents...... 1 1. The Political Situation...... 2 2. Situation and Development of the Party System in Bulgaria...... 6 2.1. Trends in the Development of the Right-Wing Political Space...... 6 2.1.1. The Gerb Party...... 6 2.1.2. The Attack Party...... 7 2.1.3. The Blue Coalition (Democrats for Strong Bulgaria, DSB, and the Union of Democratic Forces, UDF)...... 8 2.1.4. The Order, Legality, Justice Party (OLJ) ...... 9 2.2. Trends in the Development of the Parliamentary Opposition ...... 10 2.2.1. Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) ...... 10 2.2.2. Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) ...... 11 3. Public Opinion...... 12 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts...... 13 2 3/2010

1. The Political Situation nals, their further development in the course of the respective legal and court proceed- Despite the fact that the summer months are ings continues to be far too slow. Some of usually characterized with the lack of harsh the underlying reasons are rooted in the lack political clashes, the new parliamentary ses- of capacity both within the investigation and sion in the country, which opened in the sec- the police. This is the reason why one of the ond week of September, indicates that the recommendations contained in the Report is political tension between the ruling majority for a reform at the Ministry of Interior to be and the opposition will be constantly rising. carried out, targeted at the establishment of Before the parliamentary summer recess, an effective and efficient criminal police force. the political debate was mainly focused on the The governing GERB majority qualified economic crisis and the reactions concerning the EC Monitoring Report as positive. In their the regular Monitoring Report just published opinion it indicates that the Bulgarian gov- by the European Commission on the progress ernment is acting decisively and is heading in Bulgaria had made in the area of internal or- the right direction in the combat against order and justice. According to the July 2010 EC ganized crime and corruption. Prime Minister Report, what has been observed is both the Boiko Borissov said that it was the most fa- aspiration and willingness for reforms to be vorable EC Report on the progress of Bulgaria carried out within the judicial system, stem- to date and the assessments it made further ming from the judiciary strategy adopted by enhance the ambition and motivation of the the governing majority, the amendments to governing majority to cope with corruption the Penal Proceedings Code, and the draft and organized crime in the country. And these amendments to the Judiciary Act, tabled by make the major priorities, which the govern- the Ministry of Justice team. ment will be pursuing in the future as well. At the same time, however, essential The Blue Coalition qualified the EC Report weaknesses still exist. Such shortcomings have as being an objective one and came up with been observed in the pre-trial and judicial the stance that what it implied was the need practices of the competent authorities. Some for radical reforms within the entire law-en- of the findings in the EC Report point out the forcement and judicial system. The Blue Co- following weaknesses: the judicial process in alition leadership declared that in the future Bulgaria lacks initiative and professional ca- they would continue to support the efforts of pacity, the pre-trial investigation of the more the GERB Party and the government to com- complicated cases seems to be carried out bat organized crime and corruption. without direction and clear purpose, whereby For his part, President Georgi Parvanov the procedures are far too formal and lengthy, also made a comment with respect to the and the pre-trial evidence and conclusions of- EC Report. He is of the opinion that the Eu- ten collapse once they get to the court-rooms. ropean Commission has issued a clear and The major criticism of the EC Report con- succinct positive assessment of the political tinues to focus on the ongoing flaws and will the government has manifested and the weaknesses in combating corruption and the considerable progress Bulgaria has made conflict of interests observed in the activities concerning the major indicators in the area of politicians in particular. The Report also of justice and internal order. points out that despite the growing number According to the President, the positive of formal arraignments against alleged crimi- assessments in the July 2010 EC Report have 3/2010 3 to motivate the government for even more not going to table a third nomination. In this decisive actions in its combat against orga- way, the issue remains unresolved to date. nized crime and corruption. At the same time, the media dialog be- One of the ideas of the governing majority tween President Georgi Parvanov and Prime in the direction of attaining higher effective- Minister Boiko Borissov has been relentlessly ness in the combat against organized crime running in the background. In one of his public and corruption is to set up a specialized law- speeches the President said that GERB’s gov- court to this effect. The project for the spe- ernance needed an alternative. Prime Minister cialized law-court envisages that it will hear Borissov responded that this statement was a cases involving embezzlement, fraud, mon- yet another proof of the President’s intention ey-laundering, crimes of office, bribery, poor to set up a political project of his own after business management, unprofitable transac- the end of his presidential mandate. Borissov tions, etc., whenever these crimes have been renewed his appeal for Parvanov to come up committed by magistrates, members of the and publicly announce his real intentions. Supreme Judicial Council and the Judicial In- The tension between the judiciary and the spectorate, the Prime Minister, the ministers executive branch of power has also been run- and their deputies, regional governors and ning at the previous high note, and this has mayors, as well as the chief secretaries of the been a tendency observed since the very be- various ministries. The specialized law-court ginning of GERB’s government term of office. will also hear all cases involving kidnapping, The Minister of Interior, Tzvetan Tzvetanov, trafficking of people, money-laundering, and has not discontinued his attacks and critical organized crime gangs. This idea, however, remarks with respect to the judicial system in was met with reserves by a number of politi- connection with some of the rulings and court cal parties and experts. Nevertheless, this idea decisions it has been issuing. Over this third is currently among the priorities of the gov- quarter of the year as well, the public has at- erning majority pending implementation in tentively observed all police operations, which the course of the new political season. the media have been covering in a lavish way, Over this third quarter of the year, the re- and these police actions are truly meeting the lations between the President and the execu- approval of the majority of Bulgarian citizens. tive branch of power have remained tense yet What is observed at the same time, however, again. The occasion that brought about the are serious gaps and omissions in the work rise of tension in the two institutions this time done by the Ministry of Interior and the Prose- were the differences between President Par- cutor’s Office. This brought about the delay of vanov and the Minister of Defense, Anyu An- some of these pre-trial criminal proceedings, guelov, in connection with the appointment which have captured the close interest of the of a new head of the military intelligence. media audiences. The opposition parties and Minister Anguelov insists that an external the Blue Coalition expressed the stance that person should be appointed to this office, the Prosecutor’s Office had become the sub- whereas Parvanov supports the nomination ject of a strong political pressure on the part of of the incumbent deputy Chief of the Military the governing majority, which resulted in pre- Intelligence Office, colonel Ventzislav Istatkov. mature court trials of a low effectiveness rate. Thus far, the President has refuted two of the The past quarter saw some re-shuffles in nominations tabled by Anyu Anguelov, and the government at the level of deputy minis- the Minister of Defense declared that he was ters. Prime Minister Boiko Borissov appoint- 4 3/2010

ed Boryana Pencheva to the post of Deputy toring and cooperation in the area of justice Minister of Finance. Pencheva replaced Anna and internal order to be dropped by the end Mikhailova at this post and will be in charge of next year altogether. with the foreign indebtedness of the country. Although this quarter saw the first symp- Her ministerial portfolio will also include the toms that Bulgaria is bottoming out from the relations with the international financial insti- economic crisis in terms of abating unemploy- tutions and the funds allocated to Bulgaria by ment, growing exports, and a rising growth the European Union. Another fresh appoint- trend in the sectors of services and tourism, ment is Mariy Kossev, the new Deputy Minis- the major economic problems in the country ter of the Economy, Energy, and Tourism. He thus far remain unresolved. will be in charge with the energy sector. An- The Minister of Finance, Simeon Dyankov, other re-shuffle has been carried at the Minis- revealed the calculations underlying the 2011 try of Education as well. Following a political draft government budget. The envisaged row, Milka Kodjabasheva had to part with her economic growth rate is expected to reach post and was replaced by Milena Damyanova. 3.6 percent. The exports are expected to rise The Bulgarian government took a cautious by 10 percent. The draft budget also envis- stance as regards the expulsion of Bulgar- ages a deficit to the tune of 2.5 percent or ian Roma people from France. Prime Minister BGN 1,963 billion. The minimum wage in the Boiko Borissov declared that Sofia had no con- country will retain its current level of BGN 140 tradictions with Paris on account of this expul- and so will the level of the pensions. sion and had no intention of plunging Bulgar- Many economic experts in the country ia in an international row, which could prove qualified the announced 3.6 percent growth an obstacle to the country’s accession to the rate forecast as far too optimistic. Besides, borderless Schengen area. Thus Borissov dif- no additional buffers have been envisaged ferentiated himself from the poignant stance against a possible new aggravation of the cri- Bucharest took on this contentious issue. sis. The idea about laying down a mere 2.5 President Parvanov, however, took a percent budget deficit was also subject to criti- stance differing from the stance of Prime cism. Besides, owing to the inflation forecasts, Minister Borissov. During his talks with the the actual incomes of the population will de- Romanian President Traian Basescu in Sofia, cline by 7 percent over the next two years. Parvanov said that Bulgaria and Romania The governing majority launched some of would act together in the process of join- the long delayed reforms in the public sector. ing the Schengen area, and this interaction The pension reform in the social security area is duly regulated by the respective bilateral initially envisaged the increase of both the documents. In the opinion of the Bulgarian age and the required length of service, which President, the two countries can achieve more make a person eligible to receive an old-age if they act together. President Parvanov also pension. After several months of delibera- voiced his condemnation of the expulsion of tions with the social partners at the tri-partite the Roma people, because this contradicted council, the final decision was to retain the the European values and practices. age eligibility and to increase only the manda- During the official talks in Sofia, President tory length of service. Thus, the reforms pro- Traian Basescu suggested that Romania and posed by the government now envisage that Bulgaria table a joint proposal to the Europe- the required length of service will be gradually an Commission for the mechanism for moni- increased by an additional year over the next 3/2010 5 three years and this requirement has already The situation of the healthcare system is been included in the calculations of the 2011 exceedingly grave. The National Health Insur- draft government budget. In this way, in 2013 ance Fund has incurred a debt of more than men will be eligible to receive pensions after BGN 125 million to the hospitals. The govern- a 40-year length of service and at the current ment has promised to repay this money by age of 63, while women will be eligible to this March 2011. The Bulgarian Union of Physi- right after a 37-year length of service and at cians (BUP), however, turned down this pro- the current age of 60. posal and started preparing for a nation-wide The three-year increase, however, be- protest, which is scheduled to start on Octo- comes valid for the length of service of the ber 15th. Should their demands fail to be met, police, the military, and all other employees The Union of Physicians and the Physicians included in the first and second categories of Trade Unions are ready to launch permanent labor who work in dangerous and unfavor- industrial actions. According to the qualifica- able labor conditions. Currently, the military tion of the leader of the Podkrepa Confed- and the police, for instance, are eligible to eration of Labor, Konstantin Trenchev, the retire and receive pensions regardless of their healthcare sector is not only in trouble, it is age, as long as they have completed a 25- actually agonizing. year length of service. The additional three Consequently, the BUP demanded the res- years will effectively raise the age, at which ignations of the Minister of Health, Prof. An- they become eligible to retire. Additional na-Maria Borissova, the Minister of Finance, three years will also be required for the pen- Simeon Dyankov, and his Deputy, Vladislav sion eligibility of teachers, but their current Goranov. The Blue Coalition and the two op- pension age will be retained, namely 57 years position parties – the BSP and the MRF – also for women and 60 years for men. expressed their stance that Anna-Maria Bo- This last proposal brought about the critical rissova had to hand in her resignation. response of the trade unions and the opposi- The peaking tension in the healthcare tion. The trade unions threatened the govern- sector finally brought about the resignation ment with protests and this made the govern- of the Minister of Health, Anna-Maria Bo- ing majority give up their intention to increase rissova. Boiko Borissov readily accepted her the pension age eligibility for people in the first resignation and came up with a proposal for and second categories who work under hard the appointment of a new Minister of Health labor conditions. For a yet another time this – Doctor Stephan Konstantinov, one of the showed that the government easily succumbs incumbent deputy chairmen of the Bulgarian to the pressure of public opinion and trade Union of Physicians. He will be the third min- union actions, which actually leads to the delay ister at this post within the limits of a single of the pension reform and the other reforms year only, which is a yet another proof of the envisaged to take place in the public sector. poor cadre policy both the Bulgarian Prime The healthcare sector reform continues Minister and the GERB Party at large have to encompass unclear ideas connected with been practising thus far. closing down hospitals, on one hand, and the In the meantime, the tension also brought lack of more substantial amendments to the about the promise of the government that the current way of funding both the various kinds hospitals would gradually start receiving their of hospitals and the activities of the National pending receivables. Thus, at the very end of Health Insurance Fund, on the other. September, the Ministry of Finance disbursed 6 3/2010

the first tranche of the debt owed to the hos- In September, the GERB Party stream- pitals amounting to BGN 65 million. lined its legislative priorities for the new par- With the appointment of doctor Stephan liamentary session. By the end of the current Konstantinov Prime Minister Borissov obvi- year, the government intends to table draft ously aims at abating the tension within the bills concerning the reforms in the healthcare healthcare sector. This, however, is only a and judicial sectors, alongside the 2011 draft temporary solution, because the problems re- government budget, which Parliament has to main unresolved, and the governing majority vote for before this year’s end. has not come up with any clear plan for re- The co-Chair of the GERB parliamentary forms in the sector as yet. faction, Todor Dimitrov, said that the draft Electoral Code would be tabled for delibera- 2. Situation and Development tions as early as the beginning of the autumn of the Party System in Bulgaria parliamentary session and that draft amend- ment bills to the Health Act and the Medici- 2.1. Trends in the Development of the nal Products Act would be tabled as well. Right-Wing Political Space Dimitrov also said that other priorities for the Despite the looming economic problems, the GERB Party would be the amendments to the GERB Party continues to be the political entity Health Social Security and Insurance Act that without any genuine alternative in the coun- would kick-start the beginning of the reform try in terms of its electoral support. The Attack in the healthcare sector. The amendments will Party continues to be the most loyal ally of codify the way hospitals and other health- the GERB Party, lending the governing major- care establishments are funded, as well as the ity its unconditional and staunch support. The measures targeted at those who have failed Blue Coalition has been repeatedly distanc- to pay their healthcare contributions, along- ing itself from the economic policy pursued side the implementation of the individual pa- by the GERB Party, and is even becoming one tient’s electronic health cards. of its most severe critics. The Order, Legality, The past quarter also saw a multiplica- and Justice Party returned to its traditional tion of internal party controversies within the populist discourse and actions by organizing GERB Party. After a serious political row, the a subscription for holding a nation-wide refer- Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, endum demanding the elaboration of a new Lachezar Ivanov, handed in his resignation Constitution of the country. not only from this post, but from all posts he had thus far occupied, including the post of 2.1.1. The GERB Party a regional leader of the Sofia district GERB Despite the fact that the past quarter saw the organization. The underlying reason is the at- first more tangible decline in the confidence tempt Ivanov had made to stop a journalist rating of the GERB Party and its government, investigation from being broadcast from one no substantial changes in the electoral support of the national private TV stations. As soon as for the ruling majority have been observed at this became public knowledge, Ivanov hand- the time being. The GERB Party continues to ed in his resignation. Following the decision be the first political force in the country and of GERB’s Executive Commission, Ivanov was no visible alternative has been noticed, which replaced by Atanas Atanassov at the post of could possibly threaten its hegemony on the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly. electoral terrain. 3/2010 7

Prime Minister Boiko Borissov said that of the GERB Party during the new political his party would be acting in the same way season as well. Siderov declared that in the in similar situations in the future as well and future his party was willing to support all re- would not permit its own representatives to form efforts undertaken by the GERB Party, undermine the confidence rating of the party because this was the only way for the country by their misconduct or other offences. He also to overcome the crisis and put an end to cor- added that he would act even-handedly, not- ruption and organized crime. withstanding the fact whether an offense had Siderov announced that the Attack Party been committed by his party fellow or some- intended to launch an operation, which he body else of a different political affiliation. called “Retribution”, aimed at punishing “all The punishment with exclusion from the those who have been plundering the country party of Danny Kanazireva, Chairperson of over the last twenty years”. In his typical pop- the GERB faction at the Municipal Council of ulist style Siderov pointed out that the rep- the town of Plovdiv, provoked serious pub- resentatives of the entire political elite were lic reverberations. The GERB Party leadership among the major culprits for the current eco- motivated their decision with the fact that nomic crisis and added that the DSB leader, Kanazireva’s critical attitude to the GERB Ivan Kostov, had a special place among them. Party had undermined the party public im- Thus Siderov once again revealed Attack’s tra- age and prestige. Kanazireva refuted these ditional hostile attitude to the Blue Coalition attacks and accused the GERB Party of hav- as a whole and to Ivan Kostov in particular. ing become a party where “fear and internal In the middle of September, Volen Sid- party intrigues reign supreme”. erov launched the idea about the re-privatiza- Over the past three months, replacements tion and nationalization of certain sectors of of GERB regional coordinators were observed the Bulgarian economy. In his opinion, what in a number of towns, namely: Gabrovo, Plev- should be subject to reconsideration are the en, Lovech, Stara Zagora, Targovishte, and privatization deals for the Bulgarian Telecom- Pazardjik. The GERB central leadership said munications Company (BTC) and the deals that the replacement of these regional co- concerning the other two mobile operators ordinators was due to serious internal party – Globul and M-Tel. The leader of the Attack conflicts. For the time being, the central party Party intends to table a proposal for the estab- leadership has managed to mitigate the con- lishment of a standing parliamentary commit- flicts. It is highly likely, however, for these tee, the task of which would be to reconsider internal GERB conflicts on the regional level the privatization deals carried out in the coun- to deepen even further with a view to the try in their entirety. This idea of the Attack upcoming local elections next year and the Party is far from new. A draft bill to this effect process of raising respective nominations for was tabled at the previous National Assembly, mayors and municipal councilors. but no one ever took it seriously enough. Although the re-privatization and nation- 2.1.2. The Attack Party alization concepts promoted by the Attack In his introductory speech at the opening of Party contradict GERB’s economic line, they the new parliamentary session in the plenary are hardly likely to bring about any serious room of the National Assembly, the Chairman contradictions between the two partner par- of the Attack Party, Volen Siderov, indicated ties. The Attack Party is simply availing itself that his party would be the most loyal ally of such social-populist rhetoric as a reaction 8 3/2010

to the economic problems in the country. Sid- Fund budget, because the health insurance erov’s party continues to experience a deficit contributions of the insured continue to be of workable ideas in the economic sector and used in a non-transparent way to unclear pur- closely adheres to all legislative proposals of poses. According to Peter Moskov, the DSB an economic nature, which the GERB Party support, which the governing majority has has been tabling thus far. Thus for instance, been receiving so far, was beginning to de- it is by virtue of the Attack’s votes that GERB’s plete because of the lack of reforms in the proposals about the amendments to the So- major social sectors. The Blue Coalition said cial Security Code for increasing the length that they would table a demand for a par- of service and pension age of future retirees liamentary hearing of the leaders of the Na- were passed at a meeting of the social parlia- tional Social Security Institute and the Nation- mentary committee. al Health Insurance Fund on the issue of the growing deficits they have been running and 2.1.3. The Blue Coalition (Democrats for the indebtedness of the Bulgaria hospitals. Strong Bulgaria, DSB, and the The UDF leader, Martin Dimitrov, launched Union of Democratic Forces, UDF) the idea about the implementation of a so- The Blue Coalition is becoming increasingly called Fiscal Board, by virtue of which to run more critical with respect to the GERB Party a government budget deficit exceeding 3 per- and its government. This trend has been ob- cent permitted threshold would only be pos- served for over several months now and in all sible on the condition that three thirds of the likelihood it is about to become a permanent Members of Parliament have voted for such a feature of the attitude of the traditional Right measure. In Dimitrov’s opinion, in this way the Wing to the GERB Party. country will adhere to a balanced budget and The DSB leader, Ivan Kostov, shared his the government will be spending as much as concerns that by the end of the current year the budget allows for. there would be a shortfall of budget revenues An agreement for the establishment of a and that the budget expenditures laid down political union was signed by the Chairmen of in the updated government budget would the UDF, DSB, and VMRO local organizations be exceeded. In his opinion, this could bring in the town of Rousse. The establishment of about the need for a second updating of this this union stems from the decision of the Blue year’s government budget. Should such a Coalition to expand the format of the coalition need occur however, DSB would seek individ- with a view to the upcoming local elections ual personal liability from all members of the next year. The objectives of this union are for incumbent government of the country. its members to table a joint nomination for the The DSB also announced their insistence future mayor of the town and compile a joint that the leaders of the National Revenue Agen- party slate of municipal councilors in Rousse. cy (NRA), the Customs Agency, the National The format is an open one and it is possible for Social Security Institute (NSSI), the National other right-wing parties to join it with time. This Health Insurance Fund (NHIF), and the Minister idea was given approval by the national leader- of Finance should submit updated information ships of the three parties and the three party about the fulfillment of their respective bud- leaders hope that this example will have follow- gets to the parliamentary budget committee. ers in the rest of the towns in the country. The DSB has no intention of lending sup- The UDF and DSB leaderships came up port to the 2011 National Health Insurance with a statement, which suggest that options 3/2010 9 for similar broader unification of right-wing mayors, and municipal councilors to be elect- formations will be sought for on the national ed for no more than two consecutive terms of level as well, especially having in mind that office wholly contradicts the usual and well- next year’s local elections will coincide with established European practices. the presidential election. The most radical are the proposals, which The political distancing, which occurred question the parliamentary form of gov- between the Blue Coalition and the GERB ernance and offer instead a transition to a Party, became evident in one of the state- presidential republic, whereby the President ments made by the UDF party leader, Martin is entrusted with exceedingly strong pow- Dimitrov, who appealed for the establishment ers. Thus for instance, the project envisages of a broad right-centrist association to the ex- that it will be the President who heads the clusion of GERB, the purpose of which will be executive branch of power and appoints the to give its support to a joint candidate at the government with the approval of the National presidential election next year. Assembly. The enhanced presidential powers The Sofia City DSB organization an- also include: the right to a presidential leg- nounced that the local elections in the capital islative initiative, enhanced presidential veto city had to be won by the candidate of the powers, the presidential right to indepen- Right Wing. Yet again the same idea has been dently summon referenda, the presidential launched that the candidate nominated by right to appoint and release from office the the Blue Coalition must differ from the nomi- Prosecutor in Chief and the Chairpersons of nation of the GERB Party. the Supreme Courts of the country. The OLJ project also includes a lesser 2.1.4. The Order, Legality, Justice Party (OLJ) number of the people’s deputies sitting in the On the 6th of September, the OLJ started a na- National Assembly: from the current number tion-wide subscription to organize a referen- of 240 it envisages to lower their number to dum demanding the summoning of a Grand 100, whereby half of the MPs will be elect- National Assembly to the purpose of draft- ed by a majority vote. As far as the judicial ing and passing a new Constitution of the system is concerned, the project proposes a country. The idea about a new Constitution smaller number of members sitting on the was launched by Yane Yanev, the OLJ leader, Supreme Judicial Council and the removal of as early as the beginning of the mandate of any political quotas for the members it will the incumbent National Assembly. Thus far, be made up of. Besides, the project launches however, little was known about the details the idea for the Prosecutor’s Office to become of the constitutional project proposed by the independent from both the judicial and ex- OLJ. But the launch of the subscription has ecutive branches of power. Another proposal brought more clarity on the issue now. concerns the right of voters to directly elect The proposals contained in this project for the administrative leaders of the law-courts a new country’s Constitutions are both strong- and the prosecutor’s offices. ly populist and radical and some of them Thus far there has not been a clearly pro- contradict basic principles of representative nounced response on the part of any of the democracy. Thus for instance, a procedure is political parties in the country with respect to proposed for the impeachment of Members the ideas concerning the proposal for a new of Parliament on the initiative of voters from country’s Constitution, which the OLJ has pub- a given constituency. The proposal for MPs, licly expressed. There has also been a lack of 10 3/2010

any serious attention on the part of the public this time their move is an attempt to lay the opinion and the media on this issue. The un- foundations of a new stage in their relation- derlying reason why seems to be rooted in the ships, which have been stagnating ever since different political agenda the Bulgarian society the loss of the general election last year. has been living with for quite some time now. The deep economic crisis and grave financial 2.2.1. Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) difficulties experienced by almost all pub- Despite the current grave economic situation lic sectors belittle the issue of summoning a in the country, the BSP cannot be recognized Grand National Assembly and the elaboration as a real alternative to the governing major- of a new Constitution, simultaneously making ity. Moreover, during this quarter as well, the it irrational, inexpedient, and ill-timed. electoral support for the party has remained The objectives pursued by the OLJ with the at a very low level. Nonetheless, the BSP con- subscription for a nation-wide referendum are tinues to be the second largest political force rather of a strategic party nature. For several in the country, as there is no other genuine months now the party has been outside the entity in the left-wing political environment, media and public attention and this move is which could compete with the BSP for the aimed at making the party subject to public votes of the left-wing electorate. discussions once again. Only a few months Unlike the second quarter of 2010, in ago a subscription for a referendum meant to which there was an abundance of verbal hear the public opinion on the issue of Turkey’s clashes and sharp exchanges between the accession to the EU was launched by VMRO major camps within the party, what has been – a party, which lost its long-standing parlia- observed over these three months instead is a mentary representation after the last general quiet respite. This is the reason why no seri- election. This example is sufficient to show ous tension has been noticed in the party on that political parties, which have been losing the eve of its October Congress session. This public support, avail of such populist themes does not mean that the conflicts have been with purely opportunistic goals that meet their resolved. On the contrary, the differences current, temporary, and narrow party strategy, within the party will continue to determine pursued with a view to their preparation for the highlights of the BSP internal political life. the upcoming local elections next year. In the middle of July, the Prosecutor’s Of- fice brought up charges against Sergei Stan- 2.2. Trends in the Development ishev. The charges stem from the fact that in of the Parliamentary Opposition his capacity of Prime Minister of the coun- At the very beginning of the new parliamen- try he has lost some classified information tary session, talks with the MRF started on the sent over to him by the secret services due initiative of the BSP to the purpose of tabling to carelessness and neglect. This matter was a non-confidence vote against Boiko Boriss- subject to debates for several months before ov’s government. These talks have been the the indictment became an actual fact. Stan- first genuine joint opposition activities, which ishev qualified the charges as a political act the two parties have undertaken since the be- inspired by the incumbent executive branch ginning of the GERB parliamentary mandate. of power. For a yet another time Stanishev Notwithstanding the fact that the relations expressed the stance that the Prosecutor’s between the two parties are based on prag- Office is subject to a strong pressure on the matic considerations rather, it is evident that part of the governing majority, which is an 3/2010 11 unprecedented occurrence for the years of serves of the National Health Insurance Fund, the country’s transition. because of the reasonable doubts the party The BSP started the new parliamentary has that the revenues NHIF receives from the season with a proposal to table a non-con- healthcare contributions are spent in an im- fidence vote against the Cabinet. The party proper way. The Blue Coalition gave its sup- suggested three major possible topics for the port to this idea but it was voted down by the vote: the grave collapse of the healthcare sec- parliamentary majority. Consequently, the BSP tor, the failure of the anti-crisis measures, the declared that they would address the Prose- frozen incomes of the Bulgarians and their cutor’s Office on this issue. quality of life. The BSP leader decided that the situation in the healthcare sector is the most 2.2.2. Movement for Rights critical of all. According to Stanishev, what is and Freedoms (MRF) being observed is the total failure of the en- Over this third quarter of the year, the MRF tire anti-crisis policy of the government and markedly enhanced its criticism targeted at he made the forecast that the current year the country’s government. This makes the would be marked either by zero or negative observers substantiate the conclusion that growth of the economy. In his opinion, each the party will be much more active during the of the suggested topics is a proper occasion new political season. The major reason under- for his party to table a non-confidence vote lying such heightened activity are the forth- against the government. coming local and presidential elections next The first consultations between the BSP year, which are key elections for the future and the MRF on the subject of the non- of the party. Especially important for the MRF confidence vote failed to bring about any are the local elections, as they are the princi- positive result. The two parties even failed to pal political resource of the party now, since it agree on the subject-matter of the vote. The went into opposition. BSP suggested that they should table a non- All these circumstances have modified the confidence vote on account of the crisis in the tactic and strategy of the MRF. This became healthcare sector, whereas the MRF insisted evident at the opening of the new plenary that the vote should focus on the crisis in the session at the National Assembly, where the sectors of education and culture. According MRF launched an appeal for the formation of to insiders, however, the major reason for the an alternative to the GERB governance. The lack of consensus was the desire of the MRF MRF Deputy Chairman, Lyutvi Mestan, stated to postpone the non-confidence vote for after that it was necessary for the political parties the BSP October Congress session, thus pre- in Bulgaria, which have been distancing them- venting the BSP from using the vote for inter- selves from the governing populist formations nal party purposes. Nonetheless, after lengthy – the GERB and Attack Parties, to direct their talks and maybe due to the resignation of the potential to building an alternative to the cur- Minister of Health, the two parties agreed on rent populist governance. Mestan appealed to the subject-matter concerning the crisis in the the Blue Coalition to get involved in this pro- healthcare sector and the demand for a non- cess, because the country needed an authentic confidence vote was duly tabled in Parliament. right-wing policy. Mestan also pointed out that The BSP made an attempt to set up an there was no greater and more significant po- ad-hoc parliamentary committee intended to litical challenge than the establishment of an make an inquiry into the situation with the re- alternative to the incumbent government. 12 3/2010

In the opinion of Lyutvi Mestan, the pass- failed to appear at the opening of the autumn ing of next year’s government budget will parliamentary session as well. put to the test the governing potential of Nonetheless, the party leadership took a the GERB Party and to a large extent will an- stance on the contentious issue of the con- swer the question whether the term of office sultancy royalties. They qualified the law-suit of the incumbent National Assembly will be against Dogan as a political act, aimed at dis- completed or will rather be terminated by crediting the party and its leader. The MRF an early parliamentary election. Mestan di- said that their tolerance was on the verge of rected critical remarks against the GERB Party depleting and the party would take the nec- on account of its anti-crisis measures, which essary legal action in order to defend itself. he chose to qualify as “pro-crisis” measures. A step in this direction is the decision made Then Mestan declared that his party would by the MRF leadership to file a petition at the be a serious corrective to the country’s gov- Strasbourg Human Rights Court concerning ernment by becoming its increasingly louder the cassation of the outcome from last year’s critic, and that the MRF could even initiate a general election in several polling stations in non-confidence vote against the government. Turkey, which resulted in the annulment of The consultations on such a non-confi- one of the MRF parliamentary seats. The party dence vote are already a tangible fact. As thinks that the annulment of nearly 18 thou- mentioned earlier, it was on the initiative of sand votes in Turkey only because the proto- the BSP that such talks were carried out, its cols of the polling commissions had not been subject-matter has already been agreed, and properly signed infringes the right of citizens the demand for the first non-confidence vote to a free vote at the time of elections. against the GERB governance has already been tabled at the Bulgarian Parliament. 3. Public Opinion The first days of September also saw the beginning of the conflict of interest law-suit The opinion poll survey held by the MBMD against Ahmed Dogan on account of the roy- Agency at the beginning of September indi- alties he has received to the tune of BGN 1.5 cates that the GERB Party has retained its elec- million for consultancy services in connection toral support and in this respect is convincingly with the construction of the “Tzankov kamak” way ahead of all the other parties. If the gen- dam and the “Upper Arda” cascade of several eral election were held in September, Boiko hydroelectric power plants. At the hearing, Borissov’s party would receive 32.3 percent of the Supreme Administrative Court issued a the voters’ ballots. The second ranking party ruling that Dogan should submit information after GERB is the BSP, for which 10.3 percent about the type of consulting activities he had of the voters are willing to cast their ballots. performed and proof about his expertise in This percentage marks a decline in comparison the areas of geodesy and hydro-engineering. with July, when the electoral support for the Ahmed Dogan did not appear at the law- Bulgarian Socialist Party stood at 12 percent. court hearing in person, he was represented The number of voters who intend to vote for by his attorney at law. On the whole, over the MRF is 5.1 percent. The rest of the parlia- the current quarter Dogan has been avoiding mentary represented parties, such as the Blue public and media appearances. Thus no com- Coalition, the Attack Party, and the OLJ, have ment has been heard from him on account of almost similar results hovering around the four these notorious consultancy royalties. Dogan percent electoral threshold. The most tangible 3/2010 13 decline has been registered with respect to the low level of overall approval. The confidence Attack Party, which could capture the votes of rating of Stanishev stands at 12.5 percent, about 2 percent of the electorate only. and his disapproval rating is as high as 75.2 The MBMD opinion poll survey shows percent. Ahmed Dogan has retained his tra- that the confidence rating of the GERB gov- ditionally high disapproval rating – 83.7 per- ernment has increased by 3 percent in com- cent, while the confidence he enjoys stands at parison with July. About 39.7 percent of the 7.2 percent only. respondents say that they trust the govern- The support rating of the leaders of the ment, while their number in July was around rest of the parliamentary represented parties 36.2 percent. At the same time, however, is equally low as well. The leader of the At- 51.6 percent of the respondents have de- tack Party, Volen Siderov, has a 9 percent sup- clared that they rather tend to distrust the port rating, whereas the disapproval he gath- Cabinet of Boiko Borissov. ers stands at 78.7 percent. The percentage of As far as the approval rating of individual respondents who have expressed disapproval politicians is concerned, Tzvetan Tzvetanov, with respect to the DSB leader, Ivan Kostov, is Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Inte- 80.3 percent, and the approval he is currently rior, enjoys the highest rating of 55.9 percent enjoying stands at 8.9 percent. and once again surpasses the approval rating The MBMD opinion poll survey also shows of Prime Minister Boiko Borissov, the rating of that among the country’s institutions it is the whom stands at 52.4 percent. police and the church that enjoy the highest The trend of a declining approval rating of confidence rating – 41.6 percent and 48 per- President Georgi Parvanov has been retained cent respectively. over the current quarter as well. He receives the approval of one third of the respondents – 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts 36.1 percent, whereas the disapproval he has gathered stands at over 50 percent. 1. The last few months of the current year will The disapproval rating of some of the be extremely important for the governance key ministers in the Cabinet, however, is dis- of the GERB Party. The government is facing turbingly high. Thus for instance, the Deputy serious challenges connected both with over- Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Sime- coming the consequences from the econom- on Dyankov, has gathered the disapproval ic crisis and the reform of the public sector, of 59.1 percent of the respondents, and the which over the past year has virtually been on confidence rating he enjoys is merely 12.3 the threshold of a total collapse. The situation percent. The Minister of Health, Anna-Maria in the healthcare sector is especially grave and Borissova, who recently handed in her resig- bleak, as a number of hospitals in the coun- nation, gathers the disapproval of 65.4 per- try are facing insolvency and are consequently cent of the respondents. The reasons for the threatened by bankruptcy proceedings. The li- high disapproval rating of these two ministers abilities of the National Health Insurance Fund can be explained with the economic crisis and owed to the hospitals exceed the amount of the grave situation in the healthcare sector, a BGN 125 million, which is the reason why proof to which is the above-mentioned resig- healthcare workers and physicians have de- nation of the Healthcare Minister. clared their readiness to launch industrial ac- As regards the opposition leaders, Sergei tion in the middle of October. Despite the re- Stanishev and Ahmed Dogan score quite a cent disbursement of half of the amount of 14 3/2010

the incurred debt and the resignation of the 2. What has been observed from an in- Minister of Health, Prof. Anna-Maria Borisso- ternal party point of view is the occurrence va, these measures are incapable of providing of the first more serious contradictions and any resolution to the massive problems in the differences within the GERB Party, which are healthcare sector, as no clear plan for reforms mainly connected with clientele infighting in the sector has been tabled thus far. on the level of local party structures. This be- A number of universities throughout the came the underlying reason for some replace- country are facing a serious crisis because of ments of regional party coordinators. Despite the lack of sufficient funding. For a yet an- this fact, however, tension and internal strife other time this clearly reveals the need for within the local structures are expected to rise the continuation of the educational reform, with a view to next year’s local elections. which in practice has been stagnant over the For the time being, the central GERB lead- past few months. ership is effectively coping with these prob- The government also launched a new pen- lems and some of its actions have revealed sion reform, the underlying principle of which for a yet another time the strongly centralized is the idea to increase both the mandatory and authoritarian nature of the party with age and length of service eligibility of future respect to the way decisions are made and pensioners. As soon as the governing majority the internal party democracy is practised. The encountered the first more serious resistance recent exclusion from the party of the chair- on the part of the trade unions and the oppo- person of the group of municipal councilors sition parties, however, the Cabinet is about in the town of Plovdiv, Dani Kanazireva, is a to modify its ideas about reforming the pen- clear proof to the above conclusion. The party sion system. This is a yet another proof of the decisions are made by a very close circle of lack of a lucid strategy and sufficient political people around Prime Minister Borissov and willpower for accomplishing the long-needed very often this happens in a non-transparent reforms in this sector. way for the broad party membership and the Another major challenge, which the gov- regional structures of the party. For a leader’s erning majority is facing right now, is the party, however, such as GERB is, this is the fulfillment of this year’s government budget. usual way the party functions. No changes Although the first symptoms of bottoming- can be expected in this direction in the fore- out of the crisis can be observed, the magni- seeable future as well. tude of the budget deficit may well exceed 3. The Attack Party continues to be the the government forecasts. This is likely to closest and staunchest ally of the GERB Party have an adverse effect on the parliamenta- and for the time being it is lending its most ry procedure of passing the 2011 country’s categorical support to the governing major- budget. Should this happen, a wave of dis- ity. The beginning of the new parliamentary content and protests could be expected on session was a yet another confirmation of the part of the various professions working in this fact, as the Attack has backed up some the public sector. For its part, this could un- of the most contentious ideas launched by dermine the confidence rating of the GERB the GERB Party concerning the pension and Party and the incumbent government. This healthcare reforms. may also entail additional Cabinet re-shuffles At the same time, Volen Siderov’s party and ministerial resignations to the purpose has launched extremely populist ideas about of deflating public discontent. the nationalization of some sectors of the 3/2010 15 economy. This move is mainly targeted at the formation of a “Blue Coalition Plus” to be ac- extremely leftist and nostalgically minded na- complished on the national level as well, by tionalists, who during the 1990s were tradi- nominating a presidential candidate different tional BSP voters and whom the Attack Party from the nomination tabled by the GERB Party. managed to attract as its own electorate in 5. The lost electoral support made the OJL 2005. Such ideas, however, will find it hard to Party put once again its stakes on populism, retrieve the electoral positions, which Attack which has been a characteristic trait of the has now almost completely lost, and they are party ever since it was officially established. hardly likely to be the proper solution that can The launch of the subscription for holding a help the Attack Party to overcome the loss of referendum on the demand for the elabora- political identity as a result of its uncondition- tion of a new Constitution of the country in- al support for the GERB Party. dicates that Yane Yanev’s party has no other 4. The Blue Coalition has increasingly political resources at its disposal, which could been distancing itself from the GERB Party. help it win the confidence and support of the Upon the opening of the new parliamentary voters. The lack of a cadre potential and ra- session at the National Assembly, the co- tional political solutions, attuned to the po- chairs of the Blue Coalition, Martin Dimitrov litical agenda of the country, have resulted and Ivan Kostov, warned that their coalition in such extremely inexpedient and improper holds considerable reserves as regards the ideas, which run counter to the current politi- economic policy pursued by GERB, which cal situation in Bulgaria. The objective of the may become the occasion for the coalition OJL Party, however, is to get into the focus members to reconsider their current support of public attention and attract the interest for the governing majority. it needs, but this initiative is hardly likely to In the immediate short term, the support bring about the desired result. of the Blue Coalition for the GERB Party will 6. Over the current third quarter of the depend on the fulfillment of this year’s govern- year, the opinion poll surveys once again indi- ment budget. Martin Dimitrov made an unam- cate that the electoral position of the BSP is in biguous statement that another budget updat- a situation of ongoing stagnation. This is the ing cannot be ruled out and this time the Blue reason why the party cannot be recognized as Coalition is hardly likely to lend support to such an alternative to the incumbent government. a move. Nevertheless, the coalition members And it is visible that the lack of internal party made it perfectly clear that they did not intend consolidation and the inability of the party to to back up the non-confidence vote against renew its party elite are among the major rea- the government. This is a matter of principle sons underlying the poor electoral support, for the Blue Coalition, because the BSP con- which the party has been receiving of late. tinues to be the major ideological adversary of The idea of the BSP to initiate a non-confi- the traditional Right Wing in Bulgaria. dence vote against the Cabinet is a step aimed The Blue Coalition indicated that it has al- at focusing wider public attention on the par- ready started its preparation for next year’s lo- ty. This move, however, is hardly likely to yield cal elections. The idea is for the coalition to ex- substantial positive results. The misgivings of pand with the inclusion of smaller right-wing the MRF that the BSP was trying to avail of parties and such an expansion has been suc- such a non-confidence vote for purely internal cessfully accomplished in the town of Rousse party goals were not quite unsubstantiated in now. It is highly likely for the idea about the the current political environment, having in 16 3/2010

mind in particular the forthcoming October become increasingly more critical with respect Congress session of the socialist party. to the incumbent governance. This will mainly Now that the BSP and the MRF have finally depend on the way in which the governing agreed to table a non-confidence vote against majority is coping with the current political pri- the government on account of the failure of its orities, such as the reforms in the public sector, healthcare policy does not belittle the fact that the fulfillment of this year’s government bud- the BSP Congress session in October is hardly get, and the mitigation of the consequences likely to bring about substantial changes, mark- ensuing from the economic crisis. ing the beginning of a new stage in the devel- Next year’s local and presidential elec- opment of the party. And yet, the reforms and tions will play the role of major determinants consolidation of the BSP have become impera- as far as the MRF political strategy is con- tive with a view to the local and presidential cerned. For a party such as the MRF, local elections next year, because they will provide elections have always been a priority. This is a key test for the future prospects of the party. the reason why the party will start its prep- 7. The beginning of the autumn parlia- aration for these elections quite early on. mentary session indicated that the MRF will GERB’s intention to introduce a requirement enhance its stance of an opposition party dur- allowing only people with permanent ad- ing the new political season. The party was dress in Bulgaria of at least a year’s duration cautious to commit itself to consultations with to vote at these elections will have a direct the BSP on a non-confidence vote against bearing on the MRF. Consequently, the party Boiko Borissov’s government, but what can be will openly oppose such an idea, should it expected in the near future is for the MRF to become subject to a parliamentary vote.

About the editors: Georgi Karasimeonov, Professor, Doctor of Philosophical Sciences, is Head of the Depart- ment of Political Science at the “St. Kliment Ohridski” Sofia University, Director of the In- stitute for Political and Legal Studies, and Edi- tor-in-Chief of the “Political Studies” Journal. Between 1991 and 1998 he was Chairman of the Bulgarian Association for Political Sci- ences. Contact point: [email protected]

Doctor Milen Ljubenov is Assistant Profesor at the Department of Political Science at So- fia University “St. Kliment Ohridski” Contact: [email protected] The last few months of the current year will be extremely important for the government of the GERB Party. The government is facing serious challenges connected both with overcoming the consequences from the economic crisis and promoting the reforms of the public sector, which has virtually been on the verge of a total collapse over the past year. This holds especially true of the sectors of healthcare, education, pension reform. The major challenge, which the governing majority will be facing, is the fulfillment of this year’s government budget. Although the first symptoms of bottoming-out of the crisis have been observed, the magnitude of the budget deficit may well exceed the government forecasts. This is likely to have an adverse effect on the parliamentary procedure of passing the 2011 country’s budget. Should this happen, a wave of discontent and protests could be expected on the part of the various professions working in the public sector. For its part, this could undermine the confidence rating of the GERB Party and the incumbent government. This may also entail additional Cabinet re-shuffles and ministerial resignations to the purpose of deflating public discontent. The Blue Coalition has increasingly been distancing itself from the GERB Par- ty. Upon the opening of the new parliamentary session at the National Assembly, the co-chairs of the Blue Coalition warned that their coalition holds considerable reserves as regards the economic policy GERB has been pursuing, which may become the occasion for the coalition members to reconsider their support for the governing majority. Despite the current grave economic situation in the country, the BSP cannot be recognized as a real alternative to the governing majority. Moreover, during this quarter as well, the electoral support for the party has remained at a very low level. Nonetheless, the BSP continues to be the second largest political force in the country, as there is no other genuine entity in the left-wing political environment, which could compete with the BSP for the votes of the left-wing electorate. The BSP and the MRF have finally agreed to table a non-confidence vote against the government on account of the failure of its healthcare policy. This initiative was launched by the BSP and mainly aims at capturing public attention on the eve of its Congress Session in October. This session, however, is hardly likely to bring about substantial changes, marking the beginning of a new stage in the development of the party.