The Victory of the GERB Party at the October 2011 Presidential and Local Elections Can Be Qualified As a Confidence Vote for the Government

Home , Attack (political party), Martin Dimitrov

The victory of the GERB Party at the October 2011 presidential and local elections can be qualified as a confidence vote for the government. One of the reasons for GERB’s success is the weakness of the other political alterna- tives. At the same time, the country needs urgent reforms in the public sector, but thus far the GERB Party has manifested inconsistency in its chaotic efforts to pull them off.

The President elect, Rossen Plevneliev, has been making promises of being a proactive and dialog-prone President. But it is only the future that will show whether he could prove capable of emancipating himself from his political patron – the GERB Party leader and Prime Minister Boiko Borissov.

The BSP continues to be the second-ranking political force in the country. The 2011 BSP election outcome has shown a certain rise in its overall electoral support, however slight it is, in comparison with the 2009 general election. And yet, the BSP continues to be a party backed up mainly by the older generation and is facing difficulties in attracting supporters belonging to the younger electorate.

The election outcome of the presidential candidate Meglena Kuneva indicates that there is a potential for the rise of a new centrist formation in the country, but its actualization will very much depend on the willingness of the former European Commissioner herself to set up such a new political party. For the time being, however, her intentions to this effect remain undisclosed. 4/2011 1

Table of Contents

1. The Political Situation...... 2 2. Situation and Development of the Party System...... 5 2.1. Trends within the Right-Wing Political Environment...... 6 2.1.1. Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (The GERB Party)...... 6 2.1.2. The Blue Coalition (made up by the Union of Democratic Forces - UDF and Democrats for Strong Bulgaria - DSB)...... 7 2.1.3. The Attack Party...... 9 2.1.4. The Order, Legality and Justice Party (OLJ)...... 10 2.2. Trends within the Parliamentary Opposition...... 11 2.2.1. Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)...... 11 2.2.2. Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)...... 12 3. Public Opinion...... 14 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts...... 14 2 4/2011

1. The Political Situation travention to the provisions of the Electoral Code. The process of submission of the indi- The expectations for a strong protest vote vidual constituency electoral protocols to the against the governing party failed to material- Central Election Commission was accompa- ize and the GERB Party won both the presi- nied by difficulties as well. As a result, the an- dential and the local elections. The presiden- nouncement of the final official election out- tial election went through a run-off phase. come was also delayed beyond the deadline At the first leg of the presidential election provided for in the Electoral Code. the GERB candidate, Rossen Plevneliev, won It also turned out that the number of in- 40.11 percent or a total of 1,349,380 votes. valid ballots was at a record high. Their over- Second-ranking was the BSP candidate, Ivailo all number in the three separate votes – for Kalfin, who received 28.96 percent or a total mayors, municipal councilors, and president – of 974,300 votes. This outcome determined topped 700,000. The invalid ballots cast only the participants in the run-offs, i.e. the presi- during the first leg of the presidential election dential candidates of the GERB Party and those exceeded 200,000. of the BSP. Meglena Kuneva remained third, All political parties with the exception of having received the support of 470,808 vot- GERB expressed their strong dissatisfaction ers (or 14 percent altogether). The rest of the and criticized the way in which the 2011 pres- presidential candidates had fallen far behind. idential and local elections were held. The BSP The electoral turn-out at the first leg of the qualified these elections as the worst in terms presidential election stood at 51.83 percent, of organization over the past 20 years. The whereas the turn-out at the local elections MRF stated that thousands of Bulgarian citi- was a little lower amounting to 48.53 percent. zens were deprived of the right to vote owing At the run-off, the MRF gave its support to the principle of permanent residence intro- to the BSP-backed Ivailo Kalfin, while Meglena duced in the Electoral Code and the drafting Kuneva appealed to her electorate to follow of the lists imposing a ban on citizens to vote. the call of their own consciousness. The MRF The governing party admitted to the exis- support proved insufficient to fill in the gap tence of certain organizational problems and between the two top-ranking presidential can- difficulties at the time of the 2011 elections, didates. Plevneliev won the presidential elec- but in their opinion they were due to the de- tion by a total of 1,698,136 votes (or 52.58 cision to hold the presidential and local elec- percent altogether), while the voters who cast tions on one and the same day. their ballots for Kalfin were 1,531,193 (or A number of international observers and 47.42 percent altogether). The overall voter Bulgarian non-governmental organizations turn-out at the run-off stood at 48.04 percent. also made an assessment of the elections The first leg of the presidential and local with respective critical remarks. The observ- elections took place in conditions of an un- ers from the Parliamentary Assembly of the precedented chaos, which triggered criticism Council of Europe qualified the performance on the part of not only the candidates and of the Central Election Commission as poorly political parties running the elections, but also organized and non-transparent. According to on the part of a number of observers. Despite the representatives of PACE, what Bulgaria the relatively low electoral turn-out, queues needs to do is to set up a more professional of voters were lining up outside the polling Election Commission, the members of which stations throughout the country, which pro- should be experts of no party affiliation. The voked tensions in front of the ballot boxes PACE representatives also stated that the themselves. This led to an extension of the equality between the candidates running for official voting time by an extra hour in con- the presidential post was infringed because 4/2011 3 they had not been give an equitable access to Gorna Oryahovitza. The court has accepted the mass media. the claim that the infringements at the time of The observers from the Organization for the vote have defiled the end result. A number Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) of serious discrepancies between the protocols have found a serious administrative problem of the various election commissions and the with the “unbalanced composition of the actual number of invalid ballots at the time of election commissions at all possible levels and the election have been established with abso- the dominating participation of people from lute certainty and this is the substantiation in the governing party therein”. Besides, they the motives of the court panel ruling in favor have established a number of organizational of the demanded annulment. flaws, which have brought about conditions For the first time since the beginning of conducive to the piling-up of voters in front of the democratic changes, the major parties in the polling stations. They have also expressed this country did not acknowledge the out- concerns with respect to the signals about come of the presidential election and lodged vote purchasing and controlled vote cases. petitions for their annulment. Seventy one According to the Bulgarian Helsinki Com- Members of Parliament from the BSP, MRF, mittee (BHC), the members of the election and the Attack Party filed in a petition with commissions were unaware of the rules and the Constitutional Court demanding that the procedures valid for an election day and thus election of Rossen Plevneliev for President manifested a very low level of administrative and Margarita Popova for Vice President be competence. The number of polling stations declared illegitimate. Among the motives was insufficient and this resulted in election for the annulment of the vote were: the lists defilement at a number of places and deprived of citizens deprived of the right to vote, the thousands of citizens from their right to vote. transparent ballots, the participation of the The amassment of many people in front of the Minister of Interior in the electoral process, polling stations caused voters to wait for long the illegitimate extension of the polling day, hours and made many of them give up the etc. The Constitutional Court accepted that idea of casting their ballots altogether. the request was admissible and should be The Bulgarian Helsinki Committee ex- allowed to further proceed on the merits of pressed its misgivings with respect to the the claims. In the final account, however, the defilement of vote secrecy as well, because Constitutional Court failed to annul the out- the ballot paper turned out to be transpar- come of the presidential election, whereby its ent. Apart from that, at a number of places, major motive was the lack of sufficient legal advocates of individual parties openly can- arguments to substantiate such a decision. vasses votes in their favor right in front of The election of Plevneliev and Popova the polling stations. brought about fresh re-shuffles in the Council As a result of repeated signals for various of Ministers. Plevneliev had handed in his min- infringements of the electoral procedures, a isterial resignation at the beginning of Sep- record number of petitions for annulment of tember, right after his presidential nomination the election outcome were filed with the law- was publicly announced, and was replaced by courts. Such law-suits were initiated in Sofia, his deputy at the Ministry of Regional Develop- Varna, Plovdiv, Kurdjali, Kyustendil, Pleven ment and Public Works, Liliana Popova. In De- and in a number of other smaller towns of cember, Margarita Popova still in the capacity the country as well. of Minister of Justice, was replaced by Diana Thus far, it is only the Administrative Court Kovacheva who until that time had occupied of Veliko Turnovo that has annulled the elec- the post of Executive Director of Transparency tion of municipal councilors in the town of International for Bulgaria. 4 4/2011

The deliberations and subsequent pass- Ivan Kostov, declared that his party had lost ing of next year’s government budget was the confidence in the Minister of Finance because second ranking event in terms of significance, of his plan to increase the government debt which was shaping up the political situation by over BGN 4 billion. The UDF leader, Martin in the country in the fourth quarter of the Dimitrov, said that the 2012 budget would year. The budget was passed owing to the additionally aggravate and deepen the eco- votes of the GERB parliamentary faction and nomic crisis in the country and would thus the independent MPs, including those from bring about new company defaults and an the Order, Legality and Justice Party, the par- increased unemployment rate. liamentary faction of which disintegrated ear- The government suggested that the re- lier this year. tirement age be increased by an extra year as The 2012 government budget envisages early as in 2012, so that a genuine pension re- a real economic growth of 2.9 percent and form could start and the deficit of the Nation- a 1.3 percent deficit of the consolidated fis- al Social Security Institute could gradually be cal program. The expected rate of the aver- overcome. The suggestion, however, brought age annual inflation is 3.2 percent. The direct about loud protests on the part of the Trade foreign investments are expected to reach 2.8 Unions, the representatives of which left the percent of the country’s GDP. The revenues of Tri-partite National Council. In result of the the republican budget are planned to reach trade-union pressure, the government de- a little over BGN 17 billion, whereby tax rev- cided in favor of a gradual increase of the enues are expected to amount to about BGN retirement age. This decision, however, was 15 billion, and non-tax revenues – to BGN transferred to the National Assembly and the 1.6 billion. The minimum salary of the lowest GERB governing majority therein, which led ranking civil servants is planned to stand at to a new break-up in the relations between BGN 335 from January 2012 on. the governing majority and the Trade Unions. The maximum social security income of In the final account, the amended texts of BGN 2,000 has been preserved. The mini- the Labor Code passed by the National As- mum pension of BGN 136 has been increased sembly provide that from the beginning of by BGN 9 and will be BGN 145 in 2012. The 2012 on the retirement age will be increas- ceiling of BGN 700 on maximum pensions ing by four months every year until it reaches has also been preserved. The deficit of the 63 years for women (in comparison with the National Social Security Institute is estimated current 60 years), and 65 years for men (in to reach an amount of approximately BGN 2 comparison with the current 63 years). billion, which will have to be covered by the The order for the retirement of people government budget. who meet the age requirement but have In 2012 the government is planning to failed to amass the mandatory social secu- spend BGN 5.5 billion from the various Eu- rity length of service has also been amended. ropean funds. Such a task will be hard to ac- Until now these people were eligible to start complish, however, because it is merely EUR receiving pensions at the age of 65 on the 2.3 billion that have been appropriated over condition that they had been paying social se- the past four years. curity contributions for at least 15 full years. The Blue Coalition voiced its critical re- From 2012 on, however, the retirement age marks concerning the macro-economic frame- for them will also begin to gradually rise by 4 work of the 2012 government budget and months per year until it reaches 67 years of the figures laid down in the budgets of the age for both men and women. National Social Security Institute and the Na- The requirements for the retirement of tional Health Insurance Fund. The DSB leader, people who have worked under hazardous 4/2011 5 and risky conditions have become more re- nessed the strike of railway workers, which strictive as well. The gradual age increase by lasted for more than 20 days. The strike was four months each year will apply to them, held in response to the decision of the Cabi- too, until, by the end of 2014, it reaches 48 net to launch job cuts in the Bulgarian Na- years for women and 53 years for men, the tional Railway Company, which is facing im- professions of whom fall under the first cat- minent bankruptcy. egory of labor, and 53 years for women and The crop-growers also organized mass 58 years for men, the professions of whom protests – this time on account of cuts in the fall under the second category of labor. The amount of the subsidies, which the govern- military personnel and the personnel of the ment had earlier promised them to disburse. Ministry of Interior will be able to retire with At the beginning of December, the Bul- a 21 year-long overall social security length of garian government made its final decision for service, provided that two thirds of this length the country to withdraw from its participa- of service has been amassed in precisely these tion in the Bourgas – Alexandroupolis Project, two public institutions. the goal of which is the construction of an The representatives of the Blue Coalition oil pipe-line under the Black Sea. The motives refused to give support to these legislative for this decision are based on pure economic amendments and voiced their stance that considerations. The Bulgarian proposal is for what Parliament had passed was far from the the tri-partite agreement with Greece and notion of reforms. They tabled a pension sys- Russia to be terminated by mutual consent. tem model according to which each retiree Should such a mutual consent fail to material- would receive a pension commensurate with ize, the Bulgarian side will withdraw from the the social security contributions he or she had project unilaterally. No final decision has been been actually paying. made with respect to the other contentious The BSP launched sharp criticism at these energy project – the construction of the “Be- legislative amendments and declared its inten- lene” Nuclear Power Plant. tion to address the Constitutional Court to this At the European Council, which made effect. The MRF expressed a similar stance. important decisions concerning the rescue of For their part, the Trade Unions announced the Euro, the Bulgarian government gave its that the amendments were illegitimate be- support to the German-French proposals for cause they were tabled without obtaining the tightening the fiscal discipline in the Europe- preliminary approval of the Tri-partite Council an Union. Prime Minister Borissov announced and in the absence of their representatives. that his governing party would shortly start The two national Trade Unions – the “Pod- consultations with the rest of the political krepa” Labor Confederation and the Confed- parties represented at the National Assembly eration of the Independent Trade Unions in in order to draft the amendments to the Bul- Bulgaria expressed their readiness to organize garian Constitution, which will focus on the a nation-wide strike as a sign of protest. implementation of the proposed fiscal board President Georgi Parvanov imposed his elements in this country. veto on the amendments to the pension system. In his opinion, the amended Labor Code 2. Situation and Development contains substantial and insuperable legisla- of the Party System tive flaws, which infringe basic and inalien- able citizen rights, and has been passed in The 2011 elections showed that the GERB conditions of significant procedural violations. Party has preserved its positions of the stron- Along with the protests on account of the gest party in the country. The BSP has pre- increased retirement age, the country wit- served its positions of a second-ranking po- 6 4/2011

litical force and for the time being remains of office. Despite the economic crisis, the in- without any viable alternative in the left-wing creasing unemployment rate, and the overall political environment. The election results of impoverishment of the population, the expec- the Attack Party and the OLJ were poor. With tations for a punitive vote against the govern- such results they could hardly overcome the 4 ing party failed to materialize. percent electoral threshold at a possible new One of the reasons for the success GERB general election. The Blue Coalition also faces scored is the lack of a genuine alternative the problem concerning its political survival. to the incumbent government, capable of The presidential election outcome for Megle- mustering the support of the majority of Bul- na Kouneva indicates that in the country garians. The traditional Right Wing remains there is a potential for the establishment of a feeble and fragmented, while, for the time centrist party under her leadership. being, the BSP cannot be recognized as a viable governing alternative. On the other 2.1 Trends within the Right-Wing hand, for more than two years after winning Political Environment the general election, the governing party has enjoyed enviable media comfort. At the time The right-wing parties at the National As- of the 2011 election campaign, GERB had a sembly are going through a process of po- dominant media presence, which created cer- litical re-orientation. The OLJ Party sustained tain inequality among the candidates of the a radical transformation after the elections individual parties and initiative committees, and declared its intention to be of assistance which were running in the elections. to GERB on all key issues and policies con- The fact that Rossen Plevneliev won the nected with the effort to overcome the eco- presidential election has actually given GERB nomic crisis. The Attack Party also reconsid- substantial power resources in all the major ered its support for the GERB Party and all political institutions. After his victory Plevneliev signs currently indicate that from now on it declared that he would be a dialog-prone Presi- will be in opposition to the government. The dent and would make the activity of the presi- Attack, however, has relapsed in an increas- dential institution open and transparent. Al- ingly growing isolation and the processes of though he has no genuine powers with respect ongoing splits within its parliamentary faction to the executive branch of power, he made the could well threaten its future existence. DSB commitment to lend support to the reform ef- and the UDF have preserved their opposition forts in the judiciary, the administration, and the behavior and have not given up the criticism development of the regions. The attraction of they address to the government. The relations foreign investments remains a key priority for between these two parties, however, remain the country and the President elect promised to tense and aggravated because of the division, do some hard work in this direction as well. which occurred in their coalition at the time The major question mark Plevneliev is of the presidential election campaign. faced with is whether he would prove capable of emancipating himself from Boiko Borissov 2.1.1 Citizens for European Development and become sufficiently independent in stay- of Bulgaria (The GERB Party) ing the decisions he will be making. This was GERB’s success at the presidential and local one of the most frequent questions he was elections has consolidated the positions of asked both during the election campaign and the government and the governing majority. after the elections. For the first time after the onset of the demo- The victory of the GERB Party at the local cratic changes in Bulgaria, a governing party elections has also strengthened the concen- has won elections in the middle of its term tration of power within the party, making it 4/2011 7 possible for it to develop on the local level by that GERB must make even bigger efforts to enhancing its political patronage. As early as reform and modernize the country. the time of the election campaign, it could be seen how local business in many places 2.1.2 The Blue Coalition (made up throughout the country was re-orienting to- by the Union of Democratic wards GERB and even many of the so-called Forces - UDF and Democrats business parties, which were present in the for Strong Bulgaria - DSB) municipal councils of many localities, merged with the governing party The UDF and DSB ran the 2011 presidential The GERB Party won the local elections and local elections disunited and this fact had in four of the largest cities of the country – a negative bearing upon the overall perfor- Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, and Bourgas. Yordanka mance of the Blue Coalition. The UDF presi- Fandakova won the election for Sofia City dential candidate, Roumen Christov, man- Mayor at the first leg of the elections, captur- aged to muster as little as 1.95 percent of the ing 53.3 percent of the votes. The GERB Party popular vote. will also have the majority at the Sofia City The lacking unification between the UDF Municipal Council with its 53 councilors. As and DSB at the presidential election had an expected, the incumbent Mayor of Bourgas, adverse impact on the election campaign Dimitar Nickolov, won a convincing victory at of the Blue Coalition nominee for Sofia City the first leg of the election with more than 70 Mayor, Proshko Proshkov from DSB, who percent of the votes and the municipal coun- mustered 11.5 percent of the Sofioter vote. cil here will also be dominated by the GERB The Blue Coalition party slate for Sofia city majority. In Plovdiv, the GERB candidate, Ivan municipal councilors attracted 10.8 percent of Tottev, won the election at the run-off against the votes, which equals 8 municipal councilor the incumbent Mayor, Slavcho Atanassov. In mandates at the Sofia City Municipal Council. Varna, the incumbent Mayor, Kiril Yordanov, One of the emblematic UDF figures – who ran the election with the support of the Naiden Zelenogorsky – lost the contest for GERB Party, also won a yet another term of the mayoral seat in the town of Pleven at the office at the run-off. run-off. The difference between him and the GERB scored election victories in another winner, Dimitar Stoikov from the GERB Party, 10 regional centers, namely the towns of Bla- was merely 289 votes. Pleven was one of the goevgrad, Rousse, Veliko Turnovo, Yambol, constituencies from which the signals and Pleven, Gabrovo, Silistra, Dobrich, Smolyan, evidence for electoral infringements were ex- and Stara Zagora. At the same time, the GERB tremely numerous, including evidence for di- Party sustained losses in three regional cen- rect replacement of ballots in one of the poll- ters where it had incumbent mayors, namely: ing stations. Zelelnogorsky did not acknowl- Vidin, Vratza, and Sliven. edge the election outcome and filed in a law- The leadership of the GERB Party quali- suit for the annulment of the election result. fied the election victory as a confidence vote The UDF won the mayoral election in the for the government. Boiko Borissov declared town of Kyustendil in a coalition with other that the 2011 elections were a huge success right-wing parties. Thus the incumbent May- for the party, because not a single govern- or, Peter Paunov, was re-elected as early as ing party thus far had won such confidence the first leg of the election. In the town of in the middle of its term of office. Accord- Montana, the Mayor elect is Zlatko Zhivkov. ing to the Prime Minister, the concentration He was nominated to the post by a coalition of such power within his party also burdens called “Faith, Morals, Patriotism”, in which it with enormous responsibility, which means the UDF and DSB took part as well. 8 4/2011

As soon as the 2011 elections were over, who qualified the NC confidence vote as a the criticism addressed at the UDF leader, victory achieved “ex officio”. Martin Dimitrov, escalated. A number of At the end of November, DSB held its Na- party organizations voiced demands for his tional Assembly, which elected the new party resignation. Dimitrov refused to resign and leadership and made an assessment of the re- demanded a confidence vote by the UDF Na- cent presidential and local elections. Ivan Kos- tional Council (NC). The members of the NC tov was unanimously re-elected to the post of declared that the party statute contained no party leader. Three new DSB representatives such procedural provision and it was point- were elected to the political leadership of the less to take part in such a confidence vote. party, namely: Proshko Proshkov, Svetoslav Martin Dimitrov admitted that the confi- Malinov, and Dimitar Syarov, who replaced dence vote actually had no binding legal MP Ivan Ivanov, Tzv. Tzvetkov, and Peter force, but in this way he insisted on receiv- Nickolov respectively. The rest of the national ing the assessment of the party leadership leadership remains the same and includes: concerning his overall performance in the Ekatertina Mikhailova, Daniel Mittov, Dimi- capacity of party leader. tar Bachvarov, Kalin Yanakiev, Peter Moskov, Dimitrov did receive the confidence vote Daniela Zhelyazkova, Radan Kanev, and Ivan of the UDF National Council, whereby 45 of its Kostov. The party leader nominated Sveto- members voted in favor, 9 voted against, and slav Malinov and Radan Kanev for his deputy another 3 abstained from the vote. About 20 chairmen. Thus far, the number of the deputy of the NC members, however, refused to take chairpersons had been four altogether. part in the vote on the motive that the UDF Ivan Kostov said that the elections had statute envisaged no such a procedure. And taken place in an atmosphere of fear and yet another 27 NC members were not present tension, the major reason being the strong at the scheduled NC meeting altogether. administrative and political pressure exerted These results showed that the party con- by the governing majority. In the opinion of fidence, which Martin Dimitrov is currently Ivan Kostov, the poor result at the presiden- enjoying, is quite brittle and that the opposi- tial election was due to the substitution of the tion attitudes within the party are on the rise. Blue Coalition following the unsubstantiated Dimitrov’s UDF opponents are the representa- coalition activities undertaken by the UDF. tives of the Sofia city party organization. Its Nevertheless, Ivan Kostov defended the thesis former chairman, Stephan Ivanov, demanded that his party would do its best to preserve that Dimitrov immediately hand in his resig- the Blue Coalition in the future as well. nation in order to take upon himself the po- At the National Assembly meeting Ivan litical responsibility for the UDF “disastrous Kostov also said that his party had withdrawn performance” at the recent local and presi- its confidence from the GERB Party because dential elections, which was brought about of the fact that the governing majority was by poor coalition and cadre decisions. Ivan pursuing an aggressive policy and was de- Sotirov, also from the Sofia city party organi- stroying the statehood of the country. Apart zation, declared that the party leader had lost from that, the GERB Party had gone back on the support of the party leadership, as he had its pre-election promises to fight organized received less than the half of all the votes to crime and corruption and to carry out the which the NC member are eligible. respective economic reforms. Moreover, in Similar was the stance taken by the for- Kostov’s opinion, the policy of the GERB Party mer party leader and ex-Foreign Minister in was deepening the crisis in the country. the government of the Alliance of Democratic During the debates, the delegates to the Forces (1997-2001) – Nadezhda Neinsky – National Assembly united around the opinion 4/2011 9 that the results from the presidential and local gora and Shoumen, where thus far the Attack elections were far more modest than the out- had been scoring good results, is an overall come they had expected. They declared their decline in the support for Siderov’ party. stance against forming a coalition with the The 2011 elections have shown that the parties of Stephan Sofiansky and Evgeni Back- potential of the nationalist vote has been pre- ardjiev and for the preservation of the Blue served at a level of about 5 percent, but the Coalition. Proshko Proshkov accused the UDF factor consolidating this vote is no longer Vo- for the loss at the vote for Sofia city mayor, len Siderov. because the UDF had “severed the national Volen Siderov did not accept the elec- from the local elections campaign”. tion outcome. He declared that the result announced for his electoral performance was 2.1.3 The Attack Party not the result he actually got, because the The performance of Volen Siderov and the elections were rigged. Siderov even insisted Attack Party at the 2011 presidential and lo- on a second counting of ballots, which – in cal elections confirmed the trend established his opinion – would prove the falsifications over the past two years of a declining con- committed in the course of the elections. In fidence in this party and its leader. Volen the final account, the Attack Party gave its Siderov received 3.64 percent of the popular support to the subscription tabled by the BSP vote, which is far below the result he got at and the MRF before the Constitutional Court the previous presidential election when he for the annulment of the election results. made it to the run-off. This result indicates Quite unexpectedly, a week after the run- that the Attack Party will find it hard to over- off of the presidential election, Dimitar Stoya- come the 4 percent electoral threshold at the nov, Member of the European Parliament next general election. and Deputy Chairman of the Attack Party, The reasons for the poor results are com- demanded that Volen Siderov should hand in plex ones. On one hand, the strong bond, his resignation. Dimitar Stoyanov who is the which the Attack established with the GERB step-son of Volen Siderov declared that the Party, brought about the gradual obliteration party leader had to resign on account of the of the nationalists. On the other hand, the poor election outcome. Dimitar Stoyanov also processes of ongoing splits within the party, disagreed with the Attack Party’s participa- which went through several stages over the tion in the subscription to the Constitutional last few years, additionally narrowed its elec- Court, which was jointly filed in by the BSP toral potential. Moreover, the new party of and the MRF. the name “National Front for the Salvation It actually turned out that Dimitar Stoya- of Bulgaria” (NFSB) established by the CEO nov’s motives were substantiated by personal of the SKAT Television, Valeri Simeonov, also reasons, connected with the relationship be- brought about a further split of the nationalist tween his mother Kapka Siderova and Volen vote. Thus for instance, the NFSB presidential Siderov. Siderov himself admitted that for candidate, Stephan Solakov, obtained 1.31 some time now he did not live with his wife percent of the popular vote. Valeri Simeonov, but added that this was an issue concerning who was running for the post of Bourgas city the two of them only and had nothing to do mayor, ranked second after the winner, while with the political development of the party. the Attack Party candidate, Dimcho Groudev, Volen Siderov qualified the attacks against managed to muster as little as 1.26 percent him as part and parcel of the scenario for the of the votes. The NFSB also had better results disintegration of the party, which was drafted than the Attack in the town of Yambol. What and directed by the GERB Party and Prime has been observed in towns such as Stara Za- Minister Boiko Borissov himself. 10 4/2011

The row raging within the Attack Party Atanas Semov was: “I will sack Boiko Boriss- ended up with the exclusion of Dimitar Stoya- ov”. For his part, Yane Yanev was threaten- nov from the party and the release of Kapka ing to disclose information concerning Rossen Siderova from the post of editor-in-chief of Plelvneliev and some of his alleged illegitimate the “Attack” party daily. The party leader- business connections, but this threat never ship appealed to Kapka Siderova to withdraw actually materialized. from the Sofia City Municipal Council as well, Despite this extremely negative campaign where she was elected municipal councilor at directed at the GERB Party and Prime Minis- the October 2011 local elections. ter Boiko Borissov, immediately after the first The rows within the Attack Party acceler- leg of the presidential election the OLJ took ated the centrifugal processes taking place just the opposite stance. As soon as Atanas therein. The MP Tzveta Georgieva left the At- Semov received a mere 1.84 percent of the tack parliamentary faction. The motive for her popular vote, Yane Yanev announced that at withdrawal was the support, which the At- the presidential run-off his party would give tack Party lent to the subscription of the BSP support to Rossen Plevneliev, adding that and the MRF before the Constitutional Court his intention for the future of the party was with the demand to declare the presidential to become a constructive opposition, which vote illegitimate. At the same time, Georgieva would support the work of the Cabinet on gave her support to next year’s government important political issues. budget tabled by the Council of Ministers and This move was a yet another proof to the shortly afterwards declared her future sup- fact that the OLJ is an opportunistic party, port for the GERB Party. driven by the topical political set-up. The ma- Another MP, Kalina Kroumova, also left jor reason, which the OLJ pointed out as a the Attack parliamentary faction. She an- motive for such a change, was the deepening nounced that she was dissatisfied with the of the economic crisis and the need for joint lack of support on the part of her party fel- efforts on the part of the political parties in lows for the draft bills she was tabling in Par- order to overcome its further adverse effects. liament. In this way the Attack parliamentary Despite its poor election results, the OLJ faction remained with 14 people’s deputies, made a positive assessment of its performance whereas at the beginning of its parliamentary at the local elections. Yane Yanev said that the term of office it was made up by 21 MPs. party now had 122 municipal councilors, thus At the very end of the December parlia- consolidating its positions on the local level. In mentary session, a yet another group of four his opinion, the party had doubled its result MPs left the Attack parliamentary faction and in comparison with the 2007 local elections became independent MPs. Thus, at the time when the OLJ won only 55 municipal councilor being, the Attack parliamentary faction re- mandates. Yane Yanev stated that the party mains with the bare or “sanitary” minimum had made a mistake by not nominating its of 10 MPs, as the requirement for a parlia- candidate for Sofia city mayor and this mistake mentary faction to exist is a total of 10 MPs. cost the party roughly 25,000 votes. Apart from that, Yanev also reported some organiza- 2.1.4 The Order, Legality tional problems in the towns of Plovdiv, Varna, and Justice Party (OLJ) Razgrad, and Kurdjali. On account of the poor The OLJ put its stakes on a negative election elections results, many of the local party lead- campaign, which was accompanied by inces- ers are expected to be shortly replaced. sant public attacks against the governing ma- After the 2011 elections, Atanas Semov in jority and its candidates. The major slogan in the capacity of Deputy Chairman of the party the campaign of the presidential candidate handed in his resignation on account of the 4/2011 11 poor election outcome. The OLJ Governing The socialists also qualified the elections Board, however, refused to accept the res- as dishonest and held under the sign of fal- ignation on the motive that Semov had per- sifications and the strong administrative and formed with dignity during his worthy elec- political pressure exerted by the governing tion campaign. party. According to Sergei Stanishev, these elections are an indication that basic demo- 2.2 Trends within the cratic principles have been trampled down Parliamentary Opposition in this country, such as the right to vote for instance, from which thousands of citizens The 2011 elections showed that the BSP and were deprived, having been included in pro- the MRF will act together as an opposition to hibitive lists because of the principle of du- the government much more frequently from rable residency recently introduced with the now on. The MRF support for Ivailo Kalfin at amendments to the Electoral Code. What the run-off of the presidential election and Stanishev had in mind were the complaints the partnership between the two parties in of numerous citizens who have permanently various regions of the country at the time of lived in this country for years, but have been the mayoral elections have consolidated the deprived of the right to vote precisely because trend for such a cooperation. On the other of their inclusion in the said prohibitive lists. hand, at this point in time the MRF is a party, The BSP won the mayoral elections pre- which can hardly be eligible as a potential dominantly in medium-size and smaller mu- partner for the rest of the right-wing parties nicipalities in terms of population. As far as and the GERB Party itself. This is the reason the regional centers are concerned, the party why the closer cooperation with the BSP cur- won the elections in the towns of Pernik, rently remains the only possible option hold- Lovech, Sliven, and Shoumen. In Sofia, the ing some prospects for the MRF. BSP candidate for the mayor’s seat, Georgi Kadiev, failed to make it to a run-off. In Plo- 2.2.1 Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) vdiv, Bourgas, and Varna, the BSP candidates After the first leg of the presidential elec- for mayors remained third. tion, the BSP appealed to the all the citizens, The BSP lost the elections in regions where who would hate to see all the power in the the party thus far had had emblematic may- country concentrated in the hands of Boiko ors who are at the same time popular party Borissov, to give their support to Ivailo Kalfin figures. Thus for instance, Dora Yankova, at the presidential election run-off, regardless who had governed the town of Smolyan for of their party inclinations. Out of all the po- two consecutive terms of office, lost the elec- litical parties, it was only the MRF that gave tions at the run-off with the GERB candidate, its official support to Ivailo Kalfin. Although Nickolai Melemov. this support contributed to shortening the Having lost the election for Sofia city mayor, gap between the two presidential candidates, Georgi Kadiev became subject to strong criticism Kalfin lost the election. on the part of some of his party fellows. The So- The BSP qualified the election outcome as fia city organization of the BSP accused Kadiev a good one for the party. According to the of the loss of the mayoral election, because the party leader, Sergei Stanishev, the BSP won general expectation was for him to make to a about 200 thousand votes more at the first run-off. Although he refused to take this criti- leg of the presidential election in comparison cism as sufficiently justified, Kadiev handed in with the 2009 general election. In his opinion, his resignation from the Executive Bureau of the the BSP is currently the only serious alterna- Sofia city party council, but retained his seat on tive to the incumbent government. the national party leadership. 12 4/2011

The subject matter about the future role the major democratic values. In his opinion, of President Georgi Parvanov after the end of the current crisis is not only of an economic his term of office at the end of January 2012 and social nature, but is also a crisis of the is becoming increasingly more topical. The in- democratic values, which Europe is supposed cumbent President has once again declared to uphold. The situation in this respect is es- his intention to come back to the party by pecially worrisome in countries such as Hun- saying that he will be present at the next par- gary and Bulgaria, where basic democratic ty Congress. Many qualified this statement as principles are being infringed. Parvanov’s ambition to return to the leadership post. He, however, failed to give an un- 2.2.2 Movement for Rights equivocal answer to the question whether he and Freedoms (MRF) will run for the leadership post. The MRF substantiated its support for Ivailo Sergei Stanishev did not leave the subject Kalfin at the presidential run-off with the matter about the future of Georgi Parvanov threat of the alternative for GERB to concen- without a comment. Stanishev declared that trate an excessive amount of power, which he would run for the chairmanship at the next would negatively impact the democracy in party Congress even if Georgi Parvanov ran this country. Apart from this, in the opinion for the post as well. Stanishev said that he of the MRF, Kalfin was a politician of a long- had accomplished a lot in the capacity of BSP standing career, had the necessary training leader over the past few years and he was for the post, and was a well-known figure on willing to continue his work in the future, so the international arena. Unlike him, Plevneliev that the party could assert itself as a leading was lacking the needed attributes and was political force in the country. likely to remain under the overall influence of The election of Sergei Stanishev to the Prime Minister Boiko Borissov. post of President of the Party of European So- The support lent to Ivailo Kalfin by the cialists (PES) consolidated his positions within MRF resulted in a significant decrease of the BSP as well and in practice has rendered the difference between the two presidential meaningless the intrigue concerning the lead- contenders, but proved insufficient to bring ership post in the party. Stanishev said that about a genuine turnaround. his election to this prestigious post is a high The MRF focused its attention mainly on recognition for Bulgaria and an expression of the local elections, which have always been of trust in the BSP. In Stanishev’s ‘opinion, this a prime significance for the party. One of the post is making it possible for him to defend question marks at these elections was wheth- more effectively Bulgaria’s interests in the Eu- er the exclusion of Kassim Dahl from the par- ropean Union institutions. ty would result in an outflow of votes to the In the capacity of President of the Party of United People’s Party (UPP) headed by Maria European Socialists Stanishev made the com- Kapon, which Dahl joined some time ago. mitment to work for the formulation of an Another challenge for the MRF was GERB’s economic and social alternative to the policy claim to make a breakthrough in regions, in pursued by the right-wing governments with- which the MRF so far has always been a cate- in the European Union. According to the BSP gorical winner. The outcome of the local elec- leader, this right-wing policy pursued on the tions showed that the MRF had managed to national and all-European levels has not only consolidate its ranks and had thus withstood failed to solve the problems of the current cri- all of these challenges. sis, but has also further deepened them. An- In the first leg of the local elections, the other major task facing Stanishev is the closer MRF received approximately 7 percent of the involvement of the PES with the defense of votes. The data of the pollster agencies in- 4/2011 13 dicated that about 8 percent of the ethnic number of municipal councilor representing Turks had cast their ballots for Maria Kapon them, namely four municipal councilors each. as a presidential candidate. Candidates for In the district of Razgrad, the MRF won in mayors and municipal councilors nominated the majority of municipalities at the first leg by Kapon’s United People’s Party made a cer- of the local elections to the exception of the tain breakthrough in municipalities tradition- town of Razgrad, where the party has tradi- ally governed by the MRF. As a result, the tionally been weaker, and the MRF candidate UPP now has municipal councilors of its own for mayor, Hassan Ademov, remained third. in these municipalities. Such for instance are At the run-off, the MRF gave its backing to the municipalities of Doulovo and Glavinitza the independent candidate for mayor, Den- in the district of Silistra, Samouil and Tzar cho Boyadjiev, who was running the election Kaloyan in the district of Razgrad, as well as with the support of the BSP. The MRF back- some of the municipalities in the district of ing proved crucial for Boyadjiev’s victory over Kurdjali, where between 5 and 10 percent of the GERB Party candidate, Valentin Vassilev. the ballots were cast for the UPP. In the mu- Together, the BSP and the MRF now have the nicipality of Tzar Kaloyan, the UPP candidate majority at the Razgrad municipal council, for mayor, Ismail Kassabov even made to the irrespective of the fact that the GERB Party run-off, but was defeated by the MRF candi- enjoys the largest number of municipal coun- date, Ahmed Ahmedov. cilors there. In the municipality of Kirkovov (Kurdjali The MRF scored victories in a number of mu- district), the incumbent mayor, Shoukran Id- nicipalities in the district of Blagoevgrad, such as riz, was nominated as candidate for mayor Gurmen, Yakoruda, Belitza, and Satovcha. for a third consecutive term of office, but this The MRF leadership qualified the results time on the party slate of the UPP. This hap- of the 2011 local elections as the second- pened after Idriz took the side of Kassim Dahl ranking outcome in terms of success, which as soon as he was eliminated from the MRF. the party had enjoyed thus far. Elected on its Surprisingly, Idriz received a little over 900 party slates are 34 mayors of municipalities, votes, while the candidate of the MRF who 753 municipal councilors, and 615 mayors of was nominated for a first term office won the mayorships. Nation-wide, more than 320,000 contest at the first leg of the elections. The voters have cast their ballots for the MRF can- attempt of the GERB Party to make a break- didates, and this outcome is commensurate through here failed to materialize as their with the results, which the party traditionally candidate – Essat Sadak – remained second. obtains at the time of elections. This result, The MRF now has the majority in the munici- however, is far below the record breaking pal council of this municipality as well, which 610,000 votes, which the MRF received at is very important for the party. the 2009 general election, but this result was It is only in the municipality of Dospat that rather due to the patronage vote the party GERB managed to make the desired break- had accumulated owing to its participation in through with the re-election of the incumbent the country’s governance. It is quite normal mayor Antim Purzhanov, elected in 2007 on for the MRF to shrink within its traditional the MRF party slate, who this time was nomi- electoral boundaries after the 2009 general nated to the same post by the GERB Party. At election, as these boundaries are typical for the 2011 election Purzhanov managed to win itsr regionally detached ethnic electorate. over the MRF candidate, Plamen Aivazov, with The MRF party leader, Ahmed Dogan, de- a difference of nearly 10 percent. Currently, at clared that the major political priority for the the Municipal Council of the town of Dospat party continues to be “the upholding of the the GERB Party and the MRF have an equal civil rights and freedoms, which were violently 14 4/2011

trampled down by the governing party in the 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts 2011 election process in a way inadmissible for a democratic country”. 1. The 2011 presidential and local elections revealed the existence of serious organiza- 3. Public Opinion tional weaknesses in the electoral process. The foul practices of vote purchasing and The results from the 2011 presidential and controlled vote were accompanying this local elections outlined several interesting election campaign as well. The need for trends. The elections showed that the voters establishing a professional and permanent of the GERB Party are predominantly people election commission is becoming increas- from the larger towns in the country, people ingly more apparent, whereby it should be of a higher educational level, people within composed of experts who are free from any the younger age bracket, and people with rel- party bondage whatsoever. atively higher incomes. To a large extent the 2. The victory GERB scored at the presi- above profile corresponds to the right-wing dential and local elections can be qualified as voter in the country. a confidence vote for the government. One The BSP voters continue to be elderly and of the reasons for the success of the GERB retired people, people of a lower education- Party is the weakness of the other political al- al level, and people inhabiting the smaller ternatives. The traditional Right Wing remains towns and villages in the country. This voter feeble and fragmented, while the BSP is still profile has invariably accompanied the BSP incapable of moving beyond its rock-bottom ever since the democratic changes took place party electorate, which could make it possible back in 1990. for it to attract new voters for its cause. On The MRF continues to be a regionally sep- the other hand, during the election campaign arated political party and its voters are pre- the GERB Party dominated the mass media dominantly ethnic Turks and Bulgarians pro- environment, which created certain inequal- fessing the Moslem religion. ity among the running candidates. The exit-polls of the pollster agencies in- For the time being, the President elect, dicated that the voters who cast their bal- Rossen Plevneliev, is making promises of be- lots for Meglena Kuneva are predominantly ing a proactive and dialog-prone President. young people of a centrist orientation, peo- But it is only the future that will show whether ple of a higher educational level, representa- he could prove capable of emancipating him- tives of the free-lance professions and the in- self from his political patron, Boiko Borissov. telligentsia. A sizeable part of the right-wing The election victory has increased the political voters who normally support DSB and the responsibility of the GERB Party and the lat- UDF have also cast their ballots for Meglena ter will find it much more difficult to continue Kuneva. This is mainly due to the insufficient to justify itself with explanations about the popularity of the Right Wing candidate, Rou- bad inheritance it has received from the pre- men Christov. vious government. The country needs urgent At the presidential run-off, two thirds reforms in the public sector, but thus far the of the voters who had cast their ballots GERB Party has manifested only inconsistency for Kuneva at the first leg of the election in its chaotic efforts to pull them off. The gov- voted again, whereby Kalfin and Plevneliev erning party is getting increasingly insulated received an almost equal number of these and what can be observed is the lack of will- votes each. ingness to hold a dialog both with the rest of the political parties in the country and with the Trade Unions and the Employers’ Associations. 4/2011 15

3. The election outcome for the parties fact that the Attack parliamentary faction has of the Blue Coalition indicated that the tradi- now reached the bare minimum of 10 MPs. tional Right Wing continues to be feeble and 5. The OLJ and Yane Yanev performed fragmented. The UDF and DSB exacerbated their latest “political piourette” by making a their relations on account of the presidential radical shift from an extreme opposition to election, which had an adverse impact on the country’s governance to a party declaring both the parties. The future relationships be- its support for the government immediately tween the UDF and DSB remain obscure. To after the first leg of the October elections. For run the next election individually will make it a yet another time this move consolidated the difficult for them to overcome the 4 percent opinion that this party is driven by circumstan- electoral threshold. This is the reason why the tial factors and represents a typical populist two parties will make an effort to smooth out and opportunistic formation. The OLJ election their differences, which are not so much of results were poor as expected and the party a political and ideological nature, but rather would hardly be able to regain the popular represent a tactical clash of leaders’ groups support it enjoyed back in 2009. vying for influence and better positioning. 6. The BSP continues to be the second- The confidence Martin Dimitrov has been ranking political force in the country. In com- enjoying in the capacity of UDF leader has parison with the 2009 general election, its begun to increasingly deplete and it is highly 2011 election outcome indicates some rise, likely for a change at the helm of the UDF to however slight it is, in its overall electoral sup- take place within a short period of time. port. And yet, the BSP continues to be a party 4. The poor performance of Volen Siderov backed up mainly by the older generation and the Attack Party at the 2011 presidential and is experiencing difficulties in attracting and local elections confirmed the continuing supporters belonging to the younger elector- trend of a declining confidence in this party ate. Despite the economic crisis in the coun- and its leader. The unreserved support for the try, the growing unemployment rate, and the GERB Party, which the Attack was manifest- declining purchasing power of an increasingly ing until recently, brought about the gradual larger number of citizens, the party failed to obliteration of the Attack Party, whereas its discover both the effective formula and the subsequent radicalization repudiated its vot- political tactic capable of making the majority ers even more. of the electorate recognize in it the genuine The result of Stephan Solakov at the presi- political alternative to the GERB Party. dential election and the results of the newly The BSP-supported presidential ticket established party called “National Front for made a better performance at the presiden- the Salvation of Bulgaria” (NFSB), which sup- tial election than the performance of the BSP ported Solakov, showed that the potential of itself at the local elections. To a large extent the nationalist vote remains approximately at this is due to the personal traits and charisma its 2009 levels, indicating at the same time of each of the running mates and especially that the Attack Party is no longer the political to the radiant charisma of the popular favor- force capable of consolidating it. ite, Stephen Danailov. „The family row” within the Attack Par- Despite the return of Georgi Parvanov to ty will impact its future prospects even more the BSP, the leadership post of Sergei Stanishev adversely. Volen Siderov has relapsed into an looks solid especially after he was elected Presi- increasingly deeper isolation and the ongoing dent of the Party of European Socialists. Parva- process of splits with the Attack party parlia- nov’s come back, however, is sure to impact the mentary faction can threaten its very existence. debates within the party and will bring about A testimony to the gravity of this threat is the a new re-grouping of the major forces therein. 16 4/2011

7. The MRF had predominantly focused its than 320,000 supporters, and this outcome attention on the local elections, which have is commensurate with the results, which the always been extremely important for this par- party traditionally obtains at the time of elec- ty with a view to its specific regionally-bound tions. This result, however, is far below the re- nature. One of the challenges the MRF had cord breaking 610,000 votes, which the MRF to face at these elections was connected with received at the 2009 general election. the question whether there would be a sig- 8. The presidential election outcome of nificant outflow of votes prompted by the op- Meglena Kuneva indicates that there is a po- position behavior of the former MRF activist tential for the establishment of a new centrist Kassim Dahl. The election outcome showed formation in the country, but its materializa- that Dahl’s impact proved insufficient to re- tion will very much depend on the willingness sult in any visible and substantial shift within of the former European Commissioner to set the electoral layers, which thus far the MRF up such a new political party of her own. For has traditionally dominated. Nation-wide, the the time being, however, her intentions to MRF managed to capture the vote of more this effect remain undisclosed.

About the editors:

Georgi Karasimeonov, Professor, Doctor of Philosophical Sciences, is Director of the Insti- tute for Political and Legal Studies and Editor- in-Chief of the Political Studies academic peri- odical. From 1991 to 1998 he was Chairman of the Bulgarian Political Science Association. Address for contacts: [email protected]

Milen Lyubenov, Political Science PhD, is as- sistant professor at the Chair of Political Sci- ence with the St. Kliment Ochridsky Sofia Uni- versity. Address for contacts: [email protected] The victory of the GERB Party at the October 2011 presidential and local elections can be qualified as a confidence vote for the government. One of the reasons for GERB’s success is the weakness of the other political alterna- tives. At the same time, the country needs urgent reforms in the public sector, but thus far the GERB Party has manifested inconsistency in its chaotic efforts to pull them off.