PRISM❖ Vol. 3, no. 1 12/2011 PRISM Vol. 3, no. 1 3, no. Vol. ❖ 12/2011 www.ndu.edu A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS PRISM ABOUT CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS (CCO) CCO WAS ESTABLISHED TO: PRISM is published by the National Defense University Press for the Center for ❖❖ Serve as an information clearinghouse and knowledge Enhancing the U.S. Government’s Ability to manager for complex operations training and education, PUBLISHER Complex Operations. PRISM is a security studies journal chartered to inform members of U.S. Federal agencies, allies, and other partners on complex and Prepare for Complex Operations acting as a central repository for information on areas Dr. Hans Binnendijk integrated national security operations; reconstruction and nation-building; such as training and curricula, training and education pro- CCO, a center within the Institute for National Strategic relevant policy and strategy; lessons learned; and developments in training and vider institutions, complex operations events, and subject EDITOR AND RESEARCH DIRECTOR Studies at National Defense University, links U.S. education to transform America’s security and development apparatus to meet matter experts Government education and training institutions, including Michael Miklaucic tomorrow’s challenges better while promoting freedom today. related centers of excellence, lessons learned programs, ❖❖ Develop a complex operations training and education com- and academia, to foster unity of effort in reconstruction munity of practice to catalyze innovation and development DEVELOPMENTAL EDITOR and stability operations, counterinsurgency, and irregular of new knowledge, connect members for networking, share Melanne A. Civic, Esq. COMMUNICATIONS warfare—collectively called “complex operations.” existing knowledge, and cultivate foundations of trust and The Department of Defense, with support from the habits of collaboration across the community Constructive comments and contributions are important to us. Direct MANAGING EDITOR State Department and U.S. Agency for International communications to the link on the NDU Press Web site (www.ndu.edu/press) or ❖❖ Serve as a feedback and information conduit to the Office Dr. Jeffrey D. Smotherman Development, established CCO as an innovative write to: of the Secretary of Defense and broader U.S. Government interagency partnership. policy leadership to support guidance and problem-solving PRODUCTION SUPERVISOR Editor, PRISM across the community of practice Tara J. Parekh National Defense University Press ❖❖ Enable more effective networking, coordination, and 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 3605) synchronization to support the preparation of Depart- COPY EDITORS Fort Lesley J. McNair Washington, DC 20319 ment of Defense and other U.S. Government personnel Dr. John J. Church for complex operations Sarah R. Frank Telephone: ❖❖ Support lessons learned processes and best practices Calvin B. Kelley (202) 685-3442 compilation in the area of complex operations George C. Maerz FAX: Lisa M. Yambrick (202) 685-3581 ❖❖ Identify education and training gaps in the Department of Email: [email protected] Defense and other Federal departments and agencies and PRISM online: www.ndu.edu/press facilitate efforts to fill those gaps. INTERNET PUBLICATIONS EDITOR Joanna E. Seich CONTRIBUTIONS Visit the CCO Web site at: http://ccoportal.org EDITORIAL ASSISTANT Nicole E. Broida PRISM welcomes submission of scholarly, independent research from security policymakers and shapers, security analysts, academic specialists, and civilians ADVISORY BOARD from the United States and abroad. Submit articles for consideration to the address Dr. Gordon Adams above or by email to [email protected] with “Attention Submissions Editor” in the Dr. Pauline H. Baker subject line. For further information, see the guidelines on the NDU Press Web site Ambassador Rick Barton at www.ndu.edu/press. Dr. Joseph J. Collins (ex officio) Ambassador James F. Dobbins NDU Press is the National Defense University’s cross-component, professional Ambassador John E. Herbst (ex officio) military and academic publishing house. It publishes books, policy briefs, occasional LtCol Frank G. Hoffman, USMCR (Ret.) papers, monographs, and special reports on national security strategy, defense policy, Dr. David Kilcullen national military strategy, regional security affairs, and global strategic problems. Ambassador Jacques Paul Klein This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense edition ofPRISM . Any Dr. Roger B. Myerson copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted without Dr. Moisés Naím permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be acknowledged whenever MG William L. Nash, USA (Ret.) material is quoted from or based on its content. Dr. William Reno Dr. James A. Schear Please visit NDU Press and PRISM online at www.ndu.edu/press for more on upcoming Subscriptions for individuals: http://bookstore.gpo.gov Dr. Joanna Spear issues, an electronic archive of PRISM articles, and access to other publications. Dr. Ruth Wedgwood The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department ISSN 2157–0663 of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. TITLE FEATURES 3 Counterinsurgency after Afghanistan: A Concept in Crisis by David H. Ucko 21 Negotiating Afghanistan: When? With Whom? About What? by Thomas R. Pickering 37 The State Department, USAID, and the Flawed Mandate for Stabilization and Reconstruction ndupress.ndu.edu by Renanah Miles www.ndu.edu/press 47 The Promise and Peril of the Indirect Approach by Brian M. Burton 63 The Case for Nation-building: Why and How to Fix Failed States by Paul D. Miller 75 No Marshall Plan for the Middle East by Amitai Etzioni 87 Sub-Saharan African Military and Development Activities by Birame Diop 99 Enduring Interests and Partnerships: Military-to-Military Relationships in the Arab Spring by Kenneth F. McKenzie, Jr., and Elizabeth C. Packard FROM THE FIELD 121 War Comes to Bala Morghab: A Tragedy of Policy and Action in Three Acts by John Bessler LESSONS LEARNED 137 Iraq: A Case Study in Building Civil-Military Capacity, 2007–2010 by Bradford Baylor, Jeanne Burington, Bradford Davis, and Russell Goehring BOOK REVIEW 151 Weak Links: Fragile States, Global Threats, and International Security Reviewed by Pauline H. Baker PRISMPRISM 3, no. 1 FEATURES | 1 Counterinsurgency after Afghanistan A Concept in Crisis BY DAVID H. UCKO ix years have passed since the publication of Field Manual (FM) 3−24, Counterinsurgency. Embraced by sections of the military and civilian defense community seeking a fresh approach S to the conflict in Iraq, the new field manual gained a political significance and profile unlike previous doctrinal publications. When General David Petraeus was able to incorporate some of the manual’s core precepts into the new U.S. strategy for Iraq, and casualties and instability in Iraq declined over the following few years, both counterinsurgency doctrine and the people associated with it gained unprecedented influence. Since then, the buzz that counterinsurgency acquired has worn off—for several reasons. Most fundamentally, there is widespread frustration over the attempt to use counterinsurgency doctrine to stabilize Afghanistan. Second, there are now several counternarratives to the popular notion that U.S. counterinsurgency theory pulled Iraq back from the brink: key here is that local factors, not U.S. inputs, explain what happened during the period that Americans like to call the surge. Third, large-scale and protracted military operations to build nations, unify states, and establish legitimate and competent governments are undertakings that, even if workable, run counter to the fiscal realities facing the West today. In the end, the critics pile on, counterinsurgency is naïve in its assumptions, unworkable in its requirements, and arrogant in its unfounded claims of prior success. Based on the rise and decline of counterinsurgency over the past few years, this article seeks to assess the utility of this concept and its future as a defense priority and area of research.1 It concludes that the discussion of counterinsurgency is marred by the polarizing effects of the term itself, which have encouraged a bandwagon effect, both in favor of and now in opposition to the term. Lost in this heated and overly personalized polemic is a necessary and more careful analysis of what can and cannot be expected from this concept and its associated doctrine. By teasing out its contribution to military think- ing, its limitations, and its proper use, this article seeks to identify those aspects of counterinsurgency Dr. David H. Ucko is an Assistant Professor in the College of International Security Affairs at the National Defense University. PRISM 3, no. 1 FEATURES | 3 UCKO theory that should be retained even if the term other counterinsurgency practices—careful itself is once again cast aside. This conceptual intelligence work, close partnering with Iraqi discussion has more than mere academic import, security forces, greater attentiveness toward as it will shape the way recent counterinsurgency issues of local governance—the shift in strategy campaigns are remembered and the likelihood of produced a country-wide decline in violence. past mistakes being repeated. There have been many efforts to discredit this account, recounted here in its most thread- Contribution of Counterinsurgency