What if football had different rules? p20 ISSUE 220 | JULY 2014 www.prospectmagazine.co.uk JULY 2014 | £4.95 Israel—drifting towards disaster? BRONWEN MADDOX ISRAEL—DRIFTING TOWARDS DISASTER? ISRAEL—DRIFTING TOWARDS Plus Ed Miliband’s real problem PETER KELLNER How Germany remembers WW1 HEW STRACHAN The man who saved the world STEPHANIE FLANDERS Surviving teleportation JIM HOLT Why you should move to Manchester JONATHAN DERBYSHIRE Also Rebecca Front, Christine Ockrent, Sebastian Smee, AC Grayling, Ramachandra Guha, Jonathan Portes C PROSPECT JULY Foreword Democracy’s great test 25 Sackville Street, London W1S 3AX Publishing 020 7255 1281 Editorial 020 7255 1344 Fax 020 3031 1191 Email [email protected] [email protected] Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk Editorial Editor and Chief Executive Bronwen Maddox Editor-at-Large David Goodhart Deputy Editor Jay Elwes The biggest test of democracy is whether it produces Managing Editor Jonathan Derbyshire Arts & Books Editor David Wolf governments that can solve a country’s greatest problems. Creative Director David Killen Production Editor Jessica Abrahams Budget defi cits, in the case of Europe; Hindu-Muslim clashes, Digital Editor Serena Kutchinsky Assistant Digital Editor Josh Lowe in the case of India (p46); a vulnerable economy and a failure Publishing to reach a deal with the Palestinians, in the case of Israel President & co-founder Derek Coombs Commercial Director Alex Stevenson (p24). Right now, the best-known thing that Jean-Claude Publishing Consultant David Hanger Juncker has ever said is probably his ill-advised tweet that, “I Finance Manager Pauline Joy Circulation Marketing Director Yvonne am more confi dent than ever that I will be the next European Dwerryhouse Head of Sales Commission President.” But before that, it was the altogether Dan Jeff erson 020 7255 1934 shrewder observation that, “we know what to do, we just don’t Account Manager Tom Martin 020 7255 1934 know how to get re-elected when we do it.” Head of Engagement David Tripepi-Lewis Head of Partnerships and Events Adam Bowie The past six years have brought home the force of that conundrum: the risk that Events Assistant Sara Badawi Digital Consultant: Tim De La Salle democracies are inherently fragile because voters will back only those who promise Editorial advisory board them what they want—generally, more spending—and throw out those who off er David Cannadine, Clive Cowdery, AC Grayling, Peter Hall, John Kay, Peter Kellner, austerity or other harsh compromises. In that case, the problem of engineering Nader Mousavizadeh, Toby Mundy, Jean recovery from the fi nancial crisis will seem small compared to that of persuading Seaton Associate Editors voters systematically to surrender the pensions and other benefi ts from the state Hephzibah Anderson, Philip Ball, Nick that, in an ageing society, it can no longer quite aff ord. Carn, Tom Chatfi eld, James Crabtree, Andy Davis, Edward Docx, Ian Irvine, Sam But things may not be as bleak as that suggests. The responses to the survey done Knight, Sam Leith, Emran Mian, Wendell Steavenson, James Woodall by Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, about Ed Miliband’s position (p34) suggests Contributing Editors that people are more understanding and accepting of the nation’s problems than Anjana Ahuja, Anna Blundy, David Edmonds, Helen Gao, Josef Joff e, Anatole Juncker’s pessimistic view of voters would imply. In India, the election of Narendra Kaletsky, Michael Lind, Joy Lo Dico, Elizabeth Pisani Modi as Prime Minister might owe something to a powerful new cult of personality, Annual subscription rates as Ramachandra Guha, leading historian of India, suggests (p46)—but also to an UK £49; Student £27 Europe £55; Student £32.50 open-eyed willingness even among Muslims, many of whom backed him and his Rest of the World £59.50; Student £35 Hindu-nationalist BJP party, to see if he could fi x India’s economic problems. 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Above all, they should spell out much more clearly why and paid on quarterly subscriptions. on what principles they are raising money in tax, as well as how they plan to spend The views represented in this magazine are it. Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, describes the mess not necessarily those of Prospect Publishing Ltd. Best endeavours have been taken in all that is the current UK tax code (p42). Philip Collins, former speechwriter for Tony cases to represent faithfully the views of all contributors and interviewees. The publisher Blair, writes eloquently of the repeated failure of governments to say what tax is accepts no responsibility for errors, for. Jonathan Derbyshire, Managing Editor of Prospect, shows how Manchester and omissions or the consequences thereof. Newstrade distribution other cities are pushing for more freedom over their own taxes and spending (p52). Seymour Distribution Ltd But the patchwork of pragmatism that is the annual Budget is unlikely, it seems, to 2 East Poultry Avenue, London, EC1A 9PT Tel: 020 7429 4000 give them a clear answer, never mind more powers. Images Cover: AFPGetty Politicians have only themselves to blame if they squander the fragile support of Cartoons by: Bill Abbott, Lowe, Meyrick voters by off ering them obscurity and contradiction, believing the truth will be so Jones, Grizelda, Nick, Whitworth, Royston, Russell unpalatable that they will be forced from offi ce. Additional design Jennifer Owens ISSN: 13595024 Editorial.indd 5 12/06/2014 15:10 PROSPECT JULY Contents July 2014 This month Features Arts & books 08 If I ruled the world 24 Israel: drifting towards disaster? 66 Speaking in code Mondrian—the fi rst digital artist. 10 Recommends 12 Letters 34 The trouble with Ed Can Miliband revive his fortunes? 69 If your brain is vaporised... Opinions 38 The fog of war Investigating the nature of the self. How should Germany commemorate 14 The man who bailed out Wall Street the First World War? 70 Anatomy of a nation Excavating postwar Spain. 15 Don’t be fooled by Marine Le Pen 74 The world transformed 15 What the coalition got right Don’t forget the 19th century. - , 16 Letter from Beijing 76 Books in brief 18 The morality of spying Fiction plus ’ cartoon strip. 78 Boy in the Twilight 20 What if... football hadn’t been 42 A mess and getting worse invented? We all suff er from the tax muddle. , Life 46 Cult of the Great Leader What does Modi’s victory mean for India? 82 Leith on life The Prospect duel 82 Life of the mind 22 Is it time to frack in Britain? 83 Matters of taste 84 Wine 84 DIY investor Special report: digital banking 61 A bank branch in your pocket Prospect events 85 Join us at talks, debates, festivals plus 52 Why Manchester works Endgames Set Britain’s cities free. 87 Enigmas & puzzles Science 87 The generalist 64 Seeing without light 56 Belarus: the next Crimea? 88 The way we were Discovering the secrets of the Big Bang. Europe’s dirty little secret. The super-rich. WIN An iPad mini To celebrate the new Prospect app, we are off ering readers the chance to win one of fi ve iPad minis, worth £319 each (16GB with wifi ). The iPad’s high-quality Retina display and 10-hour battery life will help you make the most of our digital edition. The fi rst three iPad minis have already been won (see online). To be in with a chance THIS MONTH go to www.prospectmagazine.co.uk Contents.indd 7 12/06/2014 17:50 8 PROSPECT JULY 2014 If I ruled the world Rebecca Front No more bad manners f I ruled the world—and I have to admit I’m surprised and will be consigned to history. insulted that this is the first time it’s been suggested—I Internet trolling—well, obviously that’s ghastly. Being insulting, would enshrine in law one principle: that we should all threatening and vile is quite uncalled for in any circumstances, mind our manners. but doing it anonymously is beyond the pale. Good manners will IThere’s a line in Tom Stoppard’s play Professional Foul that says: stop that happening too. When Professor Mary Beard was on the “The history of human calumny is largely a series of breaches of receiving end of some utterly foul-mouthed abuse for having the good manners.” It makes complete sense to me. Good manners temerity to be intelligent but not overly keen to conform to a Kar- are the cornerstone of civilisation. dashian-style aesthetic, one of her trolls was brought to his knees I’m not talking about etiquette—knowing how to use a fruit not by the police or threats of violence, but by the fear that his knife and whether it’s OK to blow your nose in polite company. mother might find out.