What if football had different rules? p20 ISSUE 220 | JULY 2014JULY 220 | ISSUE

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk JULY 2014 | £4.95 Israel—drifting towards disaster? BRONWEN MADDOX

ISRAEL—DRIFTING TOWARDSISRAEL—DRIFTING DISASTER? Plus Ed Miliband’s real problem PETER KELLNER How Germany remembers WW1 HEW STRACHAN The man who saved the world STEPHANIE FLANDERS Surviving teleportation JIM HOLT Why you should move to Manchester JONATHAN DERBYSHIRE

Also Rebecca Front, Christine Ockrent, Sebastian Smee, AC Grayling, Ramachandra Guha, Jonathan Portes

C PROSPECT JULY  Foreword Democracy’s great test 25 Sackville Street, London W1S 3AX Publishing 020 7255 1281 Editorial 020 7255 1344 Fax 020 3031 1191 Email [email protected] [email protected] Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk Editorial Editor and Chief Executive Bronwen Maddox Editor-at-Large David Goodhart Deputy Editor Jay Elwes The biggest test of democracy is whether it produces Managing Editor Jonathan Derbyshire Arts & Books Editor David Wolf governments that can solve a country’s greatest problems. Creative Director David Killen Production Editor Jessica Abrahams Budget defi cits, in the case of Europe; Hindu-Muslim clashes, Digital Editor Serena Kutchinsky Assistant Digital Editor Josh Lowe in the case of India (p46); a vulnerable economy and a failure Publishing to reach a deal with the Palestinians, in the case of Israel President & co-founder Derek Coombs Commercial Director Alex Stevenson (p24). Right now, the best-known thing that Jean-Claude Publishing Consultant David Hanger Juncker has ever said is probably his ill-advised tweet that, “I Finance Manager Pauline Joy Circulation Marketing Director Yvonne am more confi dent than ever that I will be the next European Dwerryhouse Head of Sales Commission President.” But before that, it was the altogether Dan Jeff erson 020 7255 1934 shrewder observation that, “we know what to do, we just don’t Account Manager Tom Martin 020 7255 1934 know how to get re-elected when we do it.” Head of Engagement David Tripepi-Lewis Head of Partnerships and Events Adam Bowie The past six years have brought home the force of that conundrum: the risk that Events Assistant Sara Badawi Digital Consultant: Tim De La Salle democracies are inherently fragile because voters will back only those who promise Editorial advisory board them what they want—generally, more spending—and throw out those who off er David Cannadine, Clive Cowdery, AC Grayling, Peter Hall, John Kay, Peter Kellner, austerity or other harsh compromises. In that case, the problem of engineering Nader Mousavizadeh, Toby Mundy, Jean recovery from the fi nancial crisis will seem small compared to that of persuading Seaton Associate Editors voters systematically to surrender the pensions and other benefi ts from the state Hephzibah Anderson, Philip Ball, Nick that, in an ageing society, it can no longer quite aff ord. Carn, Tom Chatfi eld, James Crabtree, Andy Davis, Edward Docx, Ian Irvine, Sam But things may not be as bleak as that suggests. The responses to the survey done Knight, Sam Leith, Emran Mian, Wendell Steavenson, James Woodall by Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, about Ed Miliband’s position (p34) suggests Contributing Editors that people are more understanding and accepting of the nation’s problems than Anjana Ahuja, Anna Blundy, David Edmonds, Helen Gao, Josef Joff e, Anatole Juncker’s pessimistic view of voters would imply. 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Seymour Distribution Ltd But the patchwork of pragmatism that is the annual Budget is unlikely, it seems, to 2 East Poultry Avenue, London, EC1A 9PT Tel: 020 7429 4000 give them a clear answer, never mind more powers. Images Cover: AFPGetty Politicians have only themselves to blame if they squander the fragile support of Cartoons by: Bill Abbott, Lowe, Meyrick voters by off ering them obscurity and contradiction, believing the truth will be so Jones, Grizelda, Nick, Whitworth, Royston, Russell unpalatable that they will be forced from offi ce. Additional design Jennifer Owens ISSN: 13595024

Editorial.indd 5 12/06/2014 15:10 PROSPECT JULY   Contents July 2014

This month Features Arts & books 08 If I ruled the world 24 Israel: drifting towards disaster?   66 Speaking in code    Mondrian—the fi rst digital artist. 10 Recommends    12 Letters

34 The trouble with Ed Can Miliband revive his fortunes?    69 If your brain is vaporised... Opinions 38 The fog of war Investigating the nature of the self. How should Germany commemorate    14 The man who bailed out Wall Street the First World War? 70 Anatomy of a nation        Excavating postwar Spain. 15 Don’t be fooled by Marine Le Pen        74 The world transformed 15 What the coalition got right Don’t forget the 19th century.  -  ,      16 Letter from Beijing 76 Books in brief    18 The morality of spying    Fiction plus     ’ cartoon strip. 78 Boy in the Twilight 20 What if... football hadn’t been 42 A mess and getting worse   invented? We all suff er from the tax muddle.        ,      Life 46 Cult of the Great Leader What does Modi’s victory mean for India? 82 Leith on life   The Prospect duel     82 Life of the mind    22 Is it time to frack in Britain? 83 Matters of taste          84 Wine   84 DIY investor   Special report: digital banking 61 A bank branch in your pocket Prospect events    85 Join us at talks, debates, festivals plus        52 Why Manchester works Endgames Set Britain’s cities free. 87 Enigmas & puzzles        Science 87 The generalist  64 Seeing without light 56 Belarus: the next Crimea? 88 The way we were Discovering the secrets of the Big Bang. Europe’s dirty little secret. The super-rich.         

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Contents.indd 7 12/06/2014 17:50 8 PROSPECT JULY 2014 If I ruled the world Rebecca Front

No more bad manners

f I ruled the world—and I have to admit I’m surprised and will be consigned to history. insulted that this is the first time it’s been suggested—I Internet trolling—well, obviously that’s ghastly. Being insulting, would enshrine in law one principle: that we should all threatening and vile is quite uncalled for in any circumstances, mind our manners. but doing it anonymously is beyond the pale. Good manners will IThere’s a line in Tom Stoppard’s play Professional Foul that says: stop that happening too. When Professor Mary Beard was on the “The history of human calumny is largely a series of breaches of receiving end of some utterly foul-mouthed abuse for having the good manners.” It makes complete sense to me. Good manners temerity to be intelligent but not overly keen to conform to a Kar- are the cornerstone of civilisation. dashian-style aesthetic, one of her trolls was brought to his knees I’m not talking about etiquette—knowing how to use a fruit not by the police or threats of violence, but by the fear that his knife and whether it’s OK to blow your nose in polite company. mother might find out. Take heed, parents everywhere. Your job Etiquette is just the veneer of a civilised society; it makes it look is not to make sure your kids get tutored in Mandarin and classi- polished but conceals what’s going on underneath. Indeed, cal lute; it’s to teach them courtesy. I often think that etiquette is itself an example of bad Under my reign, gay marriage won’t be called gay mar- manners—a codified way of making people feel igno- riage anymore; it’ll be called marriage. Because nobody rant and out of place. will mind who you fall in love with or what you get up to Good manners are much more fundamen- when you do. It’s the height of rudeness to interfere in tal. They come from empathy and tolerance and people’s sex lives. respect, and if you allow those to be your guid- And I’ll be bringing back privacy. Privacy is not the ing principles, you’ll make life a whole lot nicer same as secrecy. Prurient interest is not the same as for everyone around you. public interest—we don’t have a right to know every- Many societies tolerate the most egregious thing about each other and we definitely don’t have bad behaviour. Take religions, for example, a right to judge. spouting “thou shalt not kill” at the same time If I ruled—oh heck, let’s say when I as encouraging people to bump off anyone rule the world—I’ll commission some with differing beliefs. Century after century research into people who use the phrase of religious intolerance, wars, crusades, sui- “political correctness gone mad.” I guar- cide bombings. It’s one thing trying to per- antee that a Venn diagram would show suade someone of the error of their ways they’re the same people who complain (though personally I think that’s pretty about people eating fast food on a bus bloody cheeky too) but killing them over it— or not holding doors open. And they’re what could possibly be less polite? right to—both of those misdemeanours For the record, I don’t give two hoots show a lack of courtesy. But it’s pretty whether you believe in one god or 500 or hard to deny that calling someone none at all. When I’m in charge, and as a “cripple” or a “mong” or a “slope” long as you don’t impose it on anyone else, shows a significantly greater lack of it. you’ll be free to believe whatever the hell Political correctness isn’t, as it’s often you want without fear of persecution or made out to be, another form of eti- ridicule (I’m looking at you, sneery athe- quette—a set of hard to follow, point- ists—let people be irrational if they want less rules and fads and restrictions on to. As long as they don’t foist their outré one’s personal freedom. It’s politeness. notions onto you.) Treating everyone with respect. Likewise sexism: shouting comments Good manners cost nothing and about a woman’s breasts as you drive past make the world a brighter place. her—in what universe can that possibly be Oh... I nearly forgot: thanks so acceptable? Leaving aside the fact that it’s much for reading this. threatening and reduces a human being Rebecca Front won a Bafta award to a set of discrete components await- for her performance as Nicola Murray, ing your appraisal, it’s also downright leader of the Opposition, in the BBC politi- rude. Wolf-whistling, cat-calling, grabbing, cal comedy “The Thick of It.” Her book, “Curi- groping, leering and the countless heinous activities ous: True Stories and Loose Connections,” will be

© DAVID FISHER/REX © DAVID that follow when this sort of behaviour is sanctioned published in June (Weidenfeld & Nicolson) 10 PROSPECT JULY 2014 Prospect recommends Five things to do this month

ating a radical alternative pictorial Film vocabulary from pure geometry, colour and form. Boyhood It was a revolution in art which On release from 11th July was eventually suppressed by the Extended film shoots are rare political revolution it heralded. these days. Twelve years must be By the 1930s, Malevich had tact- some kind of record. Writer-direc- fully reverted to painting human tor Richard Linklater undertook figures. This exhibition, the first an experiment (and gamble) in major Malevich survey for 20 2002 when he cast seven-year- years, opened first at the Ste- old Ellar Coltrane as Mason Jr, delijk Museum in Amsterdam. the son of an estranged couple Where the Stedelijk shone light on played by Ethan Hawke and Patri- Malevich’s place within a volatile cia Arquette. Over the years, these Russian avant-garde, Tate empha- three (together with Linklater’s sises the thoroughgoing radicalism own daughter, Lorelei, as Mason’s of his art—which he called “Supre- sister) and assorted others made a matism” to emphasise its superi- short film each year. Together they Tate Modern’s Kazimir Malevich exhibition is on show from 16th July ority over previous works—and its form the 163 minutes of Boyhood. lasting impact. Linklater struck lucky. Col- the dragon-drawn chariot of the from Mozart to Shostakovich in Emma Crichton-Miller trane breathes the role, only briefly Sun God? four different concerts. And fel- appearing self-conscious around Power, who is an associate low BBC Young Musician alum- adolescence (and that’s hardly director at the National, started nus Benjamin Grosvenor gives a unnatural). Around the principals, out working on projects like John recital of Romantic piano music Opera minor characters develop or fade Milton’s Paradise Lost and with that’s bound to be a sell-out. Moses und Aron out. There’s no formal marking of the Chapman brothers on Chris- BBC Proms favourite the John Royal Opera House, 25th to 26th July the passing of time, the film simply topher Marlowe’s Dr Faustus. He Wilson Orchestra make their fes- One should always be wary of grows up, somehow avoiding soap has become adept at re-thinking tival debut, doing what they do unfinished works labelled as mas- or melodrama. Its power lies in the classics without losing their his- best in a programme of clas- terpieces. In the case of Arnold unexpected moments that mark torical impact. Medea, too, will be sic Frank Sinatra arrangements. Schoenberg’s opera Moses und true rites of passage. a collaboration: with director Car- But if the bright lights of Broad- Aron, wariness dissolves upon first Linklater’s work with Hawke rie Cracknell and designer Tom way aren’t to your taste, there is hearing. Adapted from the Book of and Julie Delpy on the Before Sun- Scutt, both rising stars, and Helen also a rare reprise of the musical Exodus and created in response to rise/Sunset/Midnight series estab- McCrory, an outstanding actress partnership between saxophonist the anti-Semitism he experienced lished his interest in time-lapse whose vocal and physical power Jan Garbarek and the Hilliard in Mattsee near Salzburg, it was filmmaking. Boyhood (which won should make this a performance Ensemble and a candlelit musi- developed first as a play in 1927, the Silver Bear at Berlin for best to remember in the National cal tribute to John Tavener in evolving into an oratorio before the directing) represents a new matu- Theatre’s large Olivier auditorium. the atmospheric immensity of opera began to take form between rity—not just for his work but for Michael Coveney Gloucester Cathedral. 1930 and 1932. Even though he filmmaking itself. Alexandra Coghlan failed to complete the third act, Francine Stock the work is Schoenberg’s longest 12-tone composition and modern- Classical ism’s most revolutionary opera. Cheltenham Music Festival Art This Welsh National Opera Theatre From 2nd to 13th July Malevich (WNO) production, co-directed Medea It’s that time of year again. Every Tate Modern, from 16th July by the Oper Stuttgart duo Sergio National Theatre, from 14th July summer, from Edinburgh to East- In December 1915, with Russia’s Morabito and Jossi Wieler, will Ben Power, who has written a “new bourne, the Orkneys (yes, really) soldiers dying in thousands on the be the first production seen in the version” of the 5th century BC to Oxford, you’ll find classical fes- Eastern Front, and the nation on UK since 1976. Although the opera tragedy by Euripides, describes tivals spring up out of nowhere. the brink of cataclysmic political was completed (with the estate’s it as “the ultimate divorce play.” One of the very best is the Chelten- upheaval, the Ukrainian born art- permission) by Hungarian com- But Medea is also the ultimate ham Music Festival. Held annually ist Kazimir Malevich (1879-1935) poser Zoltan Kocsis in 2009, this revenge play, involving jealousy, since 1945, the festival lands in that exhibited 39 paintings in Petro- version is unadulterated Schoen- rejection and unspeakable acts of late-June/early-July sweet spot grad. Among them was his Black berg, focusing on the first two acts. infanticide. when the town’s Regency facades, Quadrilateral, one of the most Vocally and physically demanding Power will follow recent exam- boulevards and parks are looking famous paintings in modern art. for the performers and undenia- ples—notably Mike Bartlett’s, in at their elegant best. But the 2014 With this black square, he said, bly challenging for the audience, which King Aegeus of Athens was programme is enough to tempt “I transformed myself in the zero it is not for the faint of heart or a suburban neighbour—of using a anyone indoors. of form... I destroyed the ring of head, but it marks an admirable contemporary setting for his adap- Violinist Nicola Benedetti sets the horizon and escaped from start to the three-year partner- tation. How will Power incorporate up camp as this year’s artist in res- the circle of things…” In one step ship between WNO and the Royal the chorus (if at all)? And what to idence, performing both concerto Malevich had broken painting’s Opera House. do about the poisoned robes and and chamber repertoire ranging contract with representation, cre- Neil Norman 12 PROSPECT JULY 2014 Letters [email protected]

Part of the Union me question the motivation of constitution in Spain, except as a Now that we have parliaments for those making them. provocation for future wars? In fact Scotland, Wales and Northern Niall Macdonald, Dunbartonshire The proliferation of monar- Ireland (“United States of Brit- chies, empires and republics in ain?” June), the establishment Surveillance state France since 1793 suggests that There were 13 divorces an hour in of a distinct parliament for Eng- George Packer (“Intoxicating constitutions do not cause impor- England and Wales during 2012. land would make it clear that the conviction,” June) focuses on the tant changes so much as reflect Office for National Statistics, 6th United Kingdom is in effect a fed- personal flaws of Edward Snowden them. They are also easily over- February 2014 eration—like the USA, Canada, and Glenn Greenwald, rather than turned, as happened in France in Australia and Germany—and so on the real problem at hand: the 1851 and 1940. London presents more live comedy should have a separate federal dragnet surveillance by the NSA The United States is a clas- than any other city in the world. parliament. and its partners of individuals in sic case of where an 18th-century www.london.gov.uk If this were the case, I believe the US and elsewhere. document ties the hands of later that the desire of the Scottish There are many paths to re- generations. Tiny Delaware re- Up to 40 per cent of a shark’s brain people to be on a par with the form, and while Greenwald, as turns two senators; so does mighty is dedicated to its sense of smell. English in stature and self-gov- the piece suggests, may find some California. The separation of pow- Discover, 30th April 2014 ernment could be satisfied. of them lacking, it is thanks to ers leaves the President locked Professor Eric Salzen, University his work, and Snowden’s bravery, in endless confrontation with a India’s population will probably of Aberdeen that advocacy organisations have hostile legislature—to nobody’s overtake China’s in 2028. been able to mount legal action, benefit. BBC, 18th February 2014 In the course of his learned argu- contribute to policymaking, and Ron Farquhar, London ment in favour of federation as promote the widespread adoption Bananas are the fourth most the only way to save the Union, of encryption tools. Mass surveil- Look back in anger valuable global crop. David Marquand suggests that lance is unnecessary and dispro- Wisdom after the event may sug- Bloomberg, 10th March 2014 if the choice in another referen- portionate. gest some integrity, as AC Gray- dum were “once again between Jillian York, former researcher ling points out (“Not every mis- Buckingham Palace gets its name independence and the status quo, at Harvard’s Berkman Center for take is a foolish one,” June). But, from an 18th-century Tory politician. I cannot see how any self-respect- Internet and Society as an example of this, Tony Blair John Sheffield was created Duke of ing Scot could vote against inde- is surely inappropriate: he may Buckingham in 1703 and built the pendence.” For all its eloquence, Packer’s ar- have recognised that militant house for himself as a grand London Well, here’s one—in the year ticle fails to convey the truth about Islam poses a threat to global sta- home. George III bought it in 1761. of devolution the Prime Min- Greenwald and Snowden. Green- bility, but he clearly does not yet www.royal.gov.uk ister, the Chancellor of the Ex- wald never was a “pro-war colum- appreciate his part in making it so. chequer, the Foreign Secretary, nist.” He did not emerge into public Stewart Dakers, Farnham Only a third of Americans believe the Defence Secretary, the Chief life until late 2005, by which time that evolution has occurred through Whip and the Lord Chancellor he wrote only against the invasion Clive James’s hot air natural selection. were all Scots. Many even repre- of Iraq. Snowden held pro-war As an admirer of Clive James’s Pew, 30th December 2013 sented English constituencies. A views as a private citizen, but was poetry, I was more than taken bargain indeed, and this is what against it long before he leaked. aback to discover that he denies It is thought that a Punch & has all but been thrown away. It Packer also clearly has no that overpopulation and global Judy-style puppet show has been is also what most “self-respecting idea of the horrors faced by those warming are real problems—if not performed at Covent Garden every Scots,” who do not nurture the suspected of being NSA leak- for the current generation, then year since 1662, when it was first chippiness about “self-respect” ers. A new documentary, United for future ones (“The lure of the recorded by Samuel Pepys. Marquand implies, would like to States of Secrets, tells how the apocalypse,” June). www.london.gov.uk have back. FBI raided the homes of NSA Prudence may be the least he- Adam Fergusson, former MEP for employees and other innocent roic of virtues, but it is one that we The entire population of the West Strathclyde individuals who did not leak details exercise in caring for our children Netherlands was sentenced to death of the warrantless wiretapping pro- and our grandchildren. I note that by the Spanish Inquisition in 1568, Unlike Marquand, I have a vote gramme to the New York Times. James cites as authorities liter- with a few named exceptions. in the September referendum in Snowden knew what had hap- ary men rather than the scientists The Express, 30th April 2014 Scotland, and I intend to vote in pened and wanted to protect oth- who have actually studied global favour of independence. ers. For that reason, he made his warming. The increasingly corrupt and identity known. Is “Clive of Australia” per- ramshackle institution which Mona Holland, via the website haps a reincarnation of the long- grandiosely styles itself the eared colonists of Easter Island “Mother of Parliaments” has lit- Dead letter office whose descendants look out over tle to be proud of. It has presided Linda Colley’s argument in favour the Pacific Ocean from its tree- over the decline of many parts of written constitutions (“Time for less wasteland, rather as ours of the UK, the hollowing out of a UK constitution,” May) is less will gaze into space until some our productive industries and an than convincing. The 50 written interstellar traveller from the dis- enormous rise in social inequality. constitutions produced in Europe tant future stops off to wonder at The many threats and blan- between 1786 and 1820 did not help our folly? “Look—couldn’t we just say dishments that have come from much in the general reaction after Professor John A Davis, we agree to disagree?” south of the border have made 1815. What use was the 1812 Cadiz Cambridge 14 PROSPECT JULY 2014 Opinions

Stephanie Flanders The man who bailed out Wall Street Was Tim Geithner’s response to the financial crisis “just and fair”?

Public officials write memoirs for two rea- and profoundly normal kind of guy who starting with the Mexican “Tequila” crisis of sons: to make money or to set the record has worked for a long time on the financial 1994. As former Bank of England Governor straight. If there’s one thing that former US front line, at some personal cost to him and Mervyn King has joked, “Tim has been pre- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner would like his family. When public outrage at the finan- sent at all the crises. But he did not cause the readers of his new book, Stress Test, to know, cial rescues was at its height in 2009, Barack crises. The crises caused Tim.” He’s a grown- it’s that his decision to plough hundreds of Obama told a Washington dinner that he up about how to handle them, unlike many billions of taxpayer dollars into banks dur- needed to house-train his dog, Bo, “because of the European officials he had to deal with ing the financial crisis was never about the the last thing Tim Geithner needs is someone when the eurozone was blowing up. Many of money—and it was never just about the else treating him like a fire hydrant.” them do not come out of the book very well. banks. His “only priorities,” he insists, were I have encountered some highly effective The book is a little long, and it’s rather limiting the damage to ordinary Americans managers and some very likeable, low key defensive. But when they finish it, most peo- and to the broader global economy. ones in my career in government, journalism ple will probably accept that Geithner is a He first makes the point on page two and and now banking. But Tim is the only person decent, hard-working person who did what he’s still making it 527 pages later. I worked I have encountered in a job with any responsi- he thought was best. They might even accept closely with Geithner during the 1990s at the bility who managed to be both—and self dep- that he was never a banker. But having the US Treasury and I have no doubt he believes recating, to boot. right motive is not quite the same thing as what he says is true. I also know that he has Recalling his first major speech as Treas- actually being right. Rather often, he seems never worked for any bank. Unfortunately for ury Secretary, he writes: “I swayed back to equate the two. him, I’m in the minority on both points. and forth, like an unhappy passenger on an When financial crises happen, govern- It’s one of the running gags of Stress Test unsteady ship. I kept peering around the tele- ments have to do unpopular things. “What that most people think Geithner used to be a prompter to look directly at the audience, feels just and fair is often the opposite of banker. Again and again, senior journalists, which apparently made me look shifty; one what’s required for a just and fair outcome,” politicians and critics refer to his “previous commentator said I looked like a shoplifter. Geithner acknowledges. But in the account career” at Goldman Sachs, despite contin- My voice wavered. I tried to sound forceful, he gives, we don’t see him thinking a lot about ued efforts to set them straight. but I just sounded like someone trying to what will deliver a “just and fair outcome.” In He quotes one typical exchange, in early sound forceful.” By the time he had finished the throes of battle, there simply isn’t time. 2009, with a critical member of the Con- speaking the US stock market had fallen by Instead we see him deliberating over what gressional Oversight Panel examining the more than 3 per cent. It was down around 5 will work to restore confidence and growth. administration’s plan for buying “toxic” per cent on the day. Geithner believes that it would have bank assets: “‘Let me stop you right there,’ When Geithner and I worked together been worse for everyone, in the long run, if [Damon] Silvers said. ‘What I don’t get—and he was still a mid-level official, though rising the shareholders and creditors of the major I practise law, and you’ve been in banking— fast. Witnessing the quiet, unassuming way banks had been made to pay a higher price— is a deal—’ that he made everyone in his office want to do and bondholders in rescued institutions had ‘I’ve never actually been in banking,’ I their very best for him, I found myself think- been forced to take “haircuts” (mandatory interrupted. ing he could have been president, if he had write-downs). He thought that this kind of ‘Well, a long time ago,’ he said. only been a bit bigger. He’s just under 5 foot “Old Testament justice” would only worsen ‘Actually, never,’ I replied. 9, with what journalists tend to describe as a the crisis and, in the autumn of 2008, he was ‘Investment banking,’ Silvers retorted. “boyish” physique. probably right. ‘Never investment banking,’ I said... The lack of gravitas and grey hairs were But he didn’t want to force banks to con- ‘Alright,’ Silvers conceded. ‘Very well handicaps when he took over as Treasury serve capital and cut dividends in the run then.’ And then he continued his attack on Secretary in the heat of the financial crisis in up to the crisis, either—despite mounting the Public-Private Investment Program as a early 2009. One of his allies in Congress, Bar- evidence that they were not going to have shocking handout to financial interests.” ney Frank, later told him that when he spoke enough to weather the storm. Nor, in March With so many ex-Goldman types in in public, “I looked like I was at my own bar 2009, did he prevent AIG from paying out Washington—Geithner’s predecessor at the mitzvah.” As it happens, Geithner isn’t Jew- $165m in bonuses to employees in the Finan- Treasury was a former Goldman CEO—the ish either, though it’s another common mis- cial Products Unit that had helped blow up mistake is perhaps understandable. But les- perception. When he met Barbara Streisand the firm. AIG was then the recipient of well son one of Stress Test is that Tim Geithner is at a state dinner, she told him that “I must be over $100bn in emergency public funds, but not and never has been a banker. Some will alright because I was a Brooklyn Jew; which Geithner thought “the public relations of try- say he is now making up for lost time, having was kind of her, except that I’m not Jewish ing to intervene would pale in comparison to taken a job for a leading private equity firm. and I’ve never lived in Brooklyn.” the damaging spectre of the US government But to me, that’s a bit different. Geithner really knows a lot about finan- trying to break a private contract.” Another lesson, which comes through in cial crises, having seen at close hand all of Geithner might have been right in all nearly every page, is that he is a dedicated the major financial fires of the last 20 years, of these judgements. We will simply never PROSPECT JULY 2014 OPINIONS 15 know. But we do know there were plenty of Right or wrong, Geithner will surely bad options. Herbert Hoover went down people inside and outside the administra- go down as the “man who bailed out Wall in history as the man who failed to bail out tion—including his (and my) former boss, Street.” At all the key moments during Wall Street, and so failed to halt the slide into Larry Summers—who didn’t think the cost the crisis, he hoped and believed that what the Great Depression. I know which one I’d of restoring confidence needed to be quite so would be good for confidence in banks would rather be, and Geithner is pretty sure too. hard to swallow. Even if history ends up tak- be good for everyone else. Maybe there was Stephanie Flanders is Chief Market Strategist for ing Geithner’s side, I suspect it will hesitate a “fairer” way to do that. But responding to JP Morgan Asset Management in Europe. She to suggest the outcome was “just and fair.” financial crises is about choosing between was formerly Economics Editor at the BBC Christine Ockrent Don’t be fooled by Marine Le Pen She has given the Front National a makeover, but it remains true to itself

It took Jean-Marie Le Pen 42 years to build The far right today is an aggregate of sev- Marine works hard. She has ousted her his political movement on the ruins of eral layers: anti-Semitic, anti-Muslim, anti- father’s inner circle, picked up her own prae- “French Algeria” and the remnants of pre- immigration, anti-globalisation, anti-liberal torian guard, who owe her their seats and Second World War fascist ideology. It has “Anglo-Saxon” market economy and finally sometimes more—her current companion, taken his daughter just over three years to anti-Europe. The pyramid is all wrapped up Louis Alliot, is Vice-President of the party. transform the Front National (FN) into a in “Bleu Marine”—the slogan she has chosen She also understands that French poli- party palatable enough to take the lead in to forge her brand. tics trusts expertise gained in the traditional, the latest European elections. In 1984, when Jean-Marie Le Pen elite education system. Her most influential Marine, 45, is blue-eyed, blonde, stout, appeared for the first time on the main polit- advisor, Florian Philippot, has degrees from aggressive and talented. A lawyer with a ical TV show of the day, L’Heure de vérité, it ENA, which trains senior French officials, smoker’s voice, she has been in politics since was a national scandal. The rumour was and HEC, a prestigious business school. she was 18. Enthused with her father’s ora- that François Mitterrand, then President, Her vocabulary has switched marketing tory, her whole life ensconced in the family had encouraged it in his successful ploy to tactics: Marine talks patriotism rather than estate near Paris after two divorces, she has weaken Jacques Chirac’s conservative party nationalism, the love of France rather than been smart enough to dissociate herself from before the European elections—Le Pen got the fear of foreigners, and disputes the term her father’s anti-Semitic obsessions. She just under 11 per cent of the vote. Marine was “extrême droite.” She has so successfully laun- openly contradicted him for the first time in on the set, watching her father. dered the image and the core rhetoric of the June over a comment he made about a Jew- In 2002, I had the dubious honour of FN that the mainstream media have adjusted ish pop star, in which he appeared to refer moderating her first TV performance, when as well. No more soul searching about the to the Holocaust. The dyed-in-the-wool old we needed to balance comments about the diabolical dimension of the far right, or the activists may have thought she was too soft at political earthquake of the time: her father’s moral implications of interviewing its repre- first, but she has delivered victory. ousting of Lionel Jospin, the socialist can- sentatives. On European election night, most The Front National today has just one didate and outgoing Prime Minister, from journalists talked about it as “the first polit- face: a woman—the only female leader in the presidential contest. A welcome change ical force in the country”—a factual mistake French politics—whose looks, personal his- to her father’s contemptuous and hysteri- given the majority of absentees, but also the tory and lifestyle seem commonplace enough cal manner with journalists, she was impres- baseline of the posters the FN had already to appeal to a wide variety of voters. Women sive, self-assured and already able to assert printed before the official results came in. see no condescending attitude; those on low the most blatant lies and fallacies with inbred Marine Le Pen sells. Radio and TV want incomes, deserting the left, like her vocabu- aplomb. Now, 12 years later, just watch her on her. Magazines put her winning smile on the lary; the young, bored with mainstream polit- stage: she loves it. She relishes the lights, the cover, making the story of the FN less politi- ical egos and tricks, find her provocative; stardom and the fight. She thrives at knock- cal and more human interest. But it may not successful second generation immigrants, ing her opponents down, all clenched words last. For all the “Bleu Marine” rebranding, who want law, order, and less foreigners, and fists, and then smiling at her admirers the Front National remains true to itself. agree with her arguments. with self-satisfaction. Christine Ockrent is the former Editor of L’Express

Simon Wren-Lewis and Jonathan Portes What the coalition got right Politicians must resist the temptation to bend economic rules

This government’s fiscal policy is a bit like should not be discarded: the establishment of rates are not—as now—effectively stuck at marmite: you either love it or hate it. Those the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) zero, monetary policy, rather than fiscal pol- that love it say it rescued the economy from a and the “fiscal mandate.” As both come up icy, should be responsible for steering the fate similar to Greece; and those who hate it for review, it is worth spelling out why they economy. Debt and deficits should act as say it deepened and prolonged the recession. should be preserved. shock absorbers, allowing us to cope with Yet even those inclined to the latter should Economics gives us a fairly clear answer unexpected developments without having to acknowledge two features of the policy that as to how to run fiscal policy. If interest adjust taxes or spending too quickly, either 16 OPINIONS PROSPECT JULY 2014 up or down. The “automatic stabilisers” (tax nation. But past UK governments were not for all new borrowing, including investment receipts fall when the economy is weak, while perfect: the last one certainly circumvented spending—but to deal with the UK’s historic benefits spending goes up) are one example at least the spirit of its own rules. Moreover, tendency to short-termism, there should of this. So if, as now, a recession raises debt every time we have a recession, the first thing also be a specific target for the ratio of public levels, governments should reduce deficits to get cut is public investment, the last few investment to GDP. and then debt only when the recession is over, years being an unfortunate example. But numerical targets alone are not and then pretty slowly. In this light, the first of the “fiscal rules” enough. No matter how good the rules are But there’s a problem here. This “relaxed” imposed by Osborne—balancing the deficit in theory, it is always possible to bend them, attitude can be exploited by governments, according to a rolling five-year period rather as Help to Buy illustrates, to the cost of all either deliberately for political gain, or just than a fixed deadline—looks sensible. It is of us in the long run. To avoid this inevita- because there is uncertainty and politi- close to what theory suggests and has allowed ble temptation, the OBR should be given a cians are always tempted to be too optimis- flexibility when forecasts proved too optimis- much wider remit. It should look not just at tic. Economists call this the “deficit bias.” tic. Rather than sticking to its original plan, the numbers and the fiscal aggregates, but It means that we might want much tighter which would have meant doubling down on what’s going on behind the headlines, and rules than theory alone suggests, especially austerity at precisely the wrong time, the gov- give a view on whether the government is in countries where this behaviour is common. ernment was able to be more flexible without observing not just the letter but the spirit of What does this mean for the UK? Experi- breaching the target. By contrast, the second the target, and not just over five years but the ence over the last few decades suggests that, rule—that the debt should be reduced at a longer term. in contrast to others, UK governments have fixed point in time (originally 2015)—always Rules based in theory, but flexible enough been relatively prudent. Outside recessions appeared arbitrary and rigid. Fortunately, to cover very different economic circum- debt fell fairly steadily up until 2008, from when push came to shove, the government stances, combined with independent expert its post-1945 peak of well over 200 per cent of sensibly ditched it. judgement to minimise the temptation for GDP to under 40 per cent. The subsequent The UK should keep the five-year rolling governments to play political games. This increase is the result of sensible attempts target, but we recommend three modifica- would be the best way forward for the UK. to mitigate the impact of the financial cri- tions. First, the rule should only apply when Simon Wren-Lewis is a professor of economics sis. Indeed, the main mistake made by the interest rates are above zero. Second, looking at the University of Oxford; Jonathan Portes is current government was to cut the deficit forward five years, there is no need for cycli- Director of the National Institute of Economic too quickly, unnecessarily prolonging stag- cal adjustment. Third, the target should be and Social Research Helen Gao Letter from Beijing Why is the Chinese government discouraging learning English?

In April, I started a job teaching English to Recently, however, a backlash against ble benefits that proficiency in English can two Chinese employees at the Beijing branch English learning has developed. Late last bring—admission to western universities and of a multinational company. I imagined my year, education authorities in Beijing said jobs in multinational firms—are strong incen- students would be recent graduates, around they would downgrade the weight of English tives, as is the popularity of western pop cul- my age, and eager to learn how to actually in the college admissions process, with the ture. But there are subtler advantages, too. speak the language they have spent their life purpose of “reducing academic pressure for Younger generations are striving to refine studying. It turned out, however, that Ken high school students.” The announcement their increasingly cosmopolitan image, and and Margaret are both in their 40s, hold sen- was met with many cheers online: some, English serves as a symbol for this ambition ior positions at the company, and speak con- championing the value of traditional Chi- as well as a tool to realise it. Nothing better fident English, if slightly accented. nese culture, believe subjects such as clas- announces cultural cachet than the ability With a firm handshake, Ken, a new hire sical Chinese and calligraphy deserve more to quote from Downton Abbey with a flawless at the firm, told me he wanted to improve his attention than English. Others argue that British accent or to order from an English English pronunciation so that his European English proves useful for only a small frac- menu at an upmarket Shanghai restaurant. colleagues would not “mistaken me as a jun- tion of Chinese students after university, too Last winter, when I was reorganising my ior-level employee.” Margaret explained that few to justify its mandatory status. parents’ bookshelf, two books with Eng- before “selling my company to international A few saw it differently. Some commen- lish titles caught my eye: Heart of Darkness, clients, I would like to sell myself.” Both Ken tators wondered if the proposal reveals the and a collection of short stories by Virginia and Margaret stay in the office after 10pm on insecurity of the Communist Party, at a time Woolf. Neither of my parents speaks Eng- weekdays to take lessons with me. when the country’s elite are heading over- lish. “Where are they from?” I asked. Mum Although western culture is still viewed seas en masse and intellectuals are relying smiled. They belonged to her university with some suspicion, learning English has on foreign media sites to access unfiltered roommate, an exchange student from Amer- long been a national obsession. In wealthy news. “Are you afraid that we will all flee to ica. She left them behind when she moved middle-class families, toddlers who have only the US after we master English?” one sug- back, and Dad saw them when he came to just begun to babble in Chinese are soon sat gested. “It is another way of keeping us stu- pick Mum up on a date. “He had been teach- down in front of Disney movies and enrolled pid and uninformed,” another said. “It’s the ing himself ABC for a few weeks, but insisted in bilingual kindergartens. At school, English same as building the Great Fire Wall for our on taking these books. He said reading them is taught from a young age and is a required internet… It’s a step backward, motivated by would be a piece of cake,” Mum said. “He did subject on the university entrance exam. Dili- political conservatism.” succeed in impressing me,” she laughed and gent learners like Margaret and Ken continue Most parents and educators doubt the glanced around, before adding: “But these to pursue English long after school, hoping it policy will dampen people’s enthusiasm books still look new, don’t they?” will give them an edge in the workplace. towards English in the long run. The tangi- Helen Gao is a journalist based in Beijing 18 OPINIONS PROSPECT JULY 2014 AC Grayling The morality of spying Does pragmatism override ethics?

If there is one thing that the recent indict- and closing, and people gaining or losing porise over questions of harm and injustice? ment of Chinese spies by US authorities jobs: real things happening to real people. The hard-nosed will say that there are times shows, it is that spying is commonplace. I Does pragmatism override morality in and causes when it is unavoidable—and alas, mean by “spying” the use of covert and usu- this sphere? If an entity such as a govern- one accepts that this view will often, and no ally illicit means to get sensitive informa- ment or a business steals information from doubt too often, prevail. tion not available through public channels. another entity—say, potentially useful results But it does not stop us from calling a Spying is not confined to security services of research paid for by the latter—then it is spade a spade. Let us separate spying to get gathering data on enemy militaries or ter- not only a criminal but a moral transgres- information that helps us to guard against rorist organisations. Allies spy on allies, com- sion. Harm has been done, injustice perpe- enemies, from spying intended to yield mercial groups spy on rivals, governments trated: that is what interests morality. Merely advantages to the spy’s side of things at the sponsor spying on various sectors of other watching another entities’ activities—where expense of the spied-upon’s side of things, countries’ economies to gain an advantage the entity is a corporate body, not an indi- where such advantages do or can result in for their own. Research and development vidual (the default on individual privacy is harm of various kinds. Because spying con- data can be of key interest in this respect. that it should be sacrosanct)—in a way that sists of snooping and stealing it deserves Economic spying is what was at stake in amounts to neither harm nor injustice is not judgement in moral terms. recent US irritation with China. The US had immoral, though it might well be illegal in a Such emphatic high-mindedness is a long been warning China of its disquiet over given jurisdiction. risky commodity. It is important to remem- such activities, and at last lost patience. The Some would think that Chinese prying ber that moralisers (those who, because they indictment of the Chinese spies, citing names into US companies’ secrets is not immoral as themselves dislike something, want everyone and issuing photographs, was a sign of that. such, until it amounts to the step that follows else to stop doing it) are in the business of Is spying moral? Some would argue that it theft of intellectual property: concrete dis- emphatic high-mindedness, and examples of is necessary, and necessity knows no moral- advantage to those companies due to use of it always encourage them to extend it where ity. From our armchairs we look down on the stolen property. Others would reply that it does not belong. On John Stuart Mill’s such arguments; expediency has committed since this latter is the aim of spying in the first excellent grounds for being generous and tol- too many crimes in history for us to listen— place, the distinction makes no difference. erant in our attitude to what the moralists’ at least when ensconced in our cushions. But The dialectic here illustrates what so often most love to interfere in, namely other peo- out in the chill arena of practicality, things happens when the idealisations of philosophy ple’s private lives, we must reserve emphatic look different. The fact that others are spying meet the realities of life. We would like snoop- high-mindedness to topics that really merit on us—so some argue—is a good enough jus- ing and stealing (of ideas as well as of things) it. Spying might not seem an obvious can- tification for returning the compliment, not to be outlawed because they are immoral, didate for such. But perhaps it really some- out of pique but because advantage and dis- and immoral because they are harmful and times is. advantage in matters of information trans- unjust, and these in turn because of their del- AC Grayling is Master of the New College of the lates into such solid facts as factories opening eterious effect on real lives. How can one tem- Humanities 20 OPINIONS PROSPECT JULY 2014

... football hadn’t been invented? Prospect’s counter-factual column, this month by Matthew Taylor

On 26th October 1863, representatives of containing elements of both codes? How would this have affected the global 12 clubs met at the Freemason’s Tavern in A rugby-style game might have taken an impact of Britain’s version of football? Possi- Great Queen Street, London, to discuss the early lead in the football “code war” that bly not a great deal. If we assume that Brit- creation of a common set of football rules. raged from the 1860s to the 1880s. A differ- ish sports spread largely as a result of the At the time, most teams played according to ently constituted FA might have been more global power and influence of Britain, then distinct rules, influenced by the games they active in convincing followers of dribbling- any type of football could have succeeded. had learnt at school and university. Some style games in places like Sheffield, Not- But the game was important, too. Soc- advocated a game where the ball could be tingham and Scotland to convert over to its cer’s rules were small in number and easy to carried and where “hacking” (kicking the code. The major cities of Lancashire and understand and translate into different lan- shins) was permitted. Others preferred Yorkshire might have acted, alongside Lon- guages. Not much equipment was needed. dribbling as the main method of propelling don, as the bases from which the FA’s rugby The game had a continuous flow and argu- the ball. game colonised other “football” codes. ably a more obvious aesthetic appeal than A composite game based on elements Cup competitions and leagues might have other football codes. of both looked likely. But at the fifth meet- emerged in rugby first, stoking civic pride A different type of football might have ing of the new Football Association (FA) and leading to further expansion. been less popular and remained the pre- on 1st December, a number of support- An Association Football Union (though serve of British overseas workers and expa- ers of a rugby-style game were absent and it wouldn’t have been called that) might triates. If so, there would have been a President Arthur Pember and Secretary still have appeared in the early 1870s, as the vacuum into which a rival football code Ebenezer Morley took advantage by remov- RFU did. But by then it may have been too from another country could have stepped. ing hacking and running with the ball from late. Given that rugby clubs outnumbered But most of these games were inward-look- the rules. association ones in parts of England anyway ing, serving narrower national purposes. In response, advocates of the Rugby during the early to mid-1870s, a dynamic None was considered ripe for export. School game left the FA. They eventually governing body with an eight year head- In these circumstances, an American formed the Rugby Football Union (RFU) start might have ensured that football’s sport, baseball, might well have become in 1871 and rugby developed as a separate dribbling codes were pushed to the margins the dominant global game. Promoters such sport. Over the next half century, the game of British sporting culture by the 1880s. as Albert Spalding were eager to globalise incorporated in the FA’s first rules, associ- Alternatively, a very different game, con- baseball in the late 19th century. World ation football, flourished. It spread across taining characteristics of both soccer and tours in the 1870s and 1880s helped the sport the United Kingdom, continental Europe rugby, might have prospered. Rules and gain a foothold in parts of the Pacific and and the informal and formal empire. In styles of play never remain static, of course, the Caribbean but it struggled elsewhere. many parts of South America, Africa and and the emerging game may have eventu- A less popular version of football might Asia it was embraced as the national sport ally moved in the direction of one or the have left opportunities that baseball mis- and, with the introduction of the World Cup other of these sports. sionaries such as Spalding could exploit. in 1930, became a global game. But it is equally possible that a game And its global popularity might have been But what if Pember and Morley had been resembling Gaelic or Australian rules foot- bolstered by its own World Cup, leaving absent from the 1st December meeting? ball—where the ball is held in the hand— British football to develop as a predomi- How would the sporting world have been could have developed, and that this sport nantly national sport. different if the advocates of running with would have been the one that British sol- Matthew Taylor is professor of history at the the ball had triumphed, with the FA presid- diers, engineers and colonial officials took International Centre for Sports History and ing over either a rugby-style game, or one with them around the world. Culture, De Montfort University

Read more at www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

WORLD HISTORY ARTS BOOKS Tristram Hunt on Britishness and Michael Gove

POLITICS What’s wrong with Labour? asks John Mann MP

INTERVIEW Anne Frank’s step-sister, Eva Schloss, on anti-Semitism in Europe

Will hosting the World Cup Leanda de Lisle on the Why are we nostalgic for New FEMINISM Why are there make or break Brazil? asks scandalous romance at the York’s bad old days? asks so few women on top? asks Michael Reid heart of the Tudor dynasty Charlie McCann Serena Kutchinsky 22 PROSPECT JULY 2014 The Duel Is it time to frack in Britain?

YES NO Benny Peiser Shaun Spiers

Britain is on the cusp of a shale gas ons with up to 100 years’ worth of natural gas On climate change, there is an argument YES and oil revolution which could help to supplies at current consumption rates—off- that shale gas can be a transition fuel, dis- rejuvenate the economy and bring cheaper setting the depletion of the ageing North Sea placing dirtier coal while we develop cheaper energy to millions of people. fields. It could reinvigorate industrial activ- renewables and—almost always forgotten in Britain holds one of the biggest shale ity in the north of the country and create a the political debate—get serious about con- basins in the world. The British Geologi- new industry. serving energy. But this argument certainly cal Survey estimates that there could be Britain’s gargantuan shale reserves con- does not apply to the shale oil in the Weald 1,300 trillion cubic feet of shale gas trapped firm that the country will have enough and elsewhere. below the north of England alone. In addi- cheap and abundant energy for much of the What of the impact of fracking on the tion, there are huge reserves of shale oil that 21st century, which experts believe will be environment and rural communities? It may lie below many areas of the United King- a golden age of gas. Cheaper energy would not be Armageddon, and any downside may dom: recent estimates suggest there could make British manufacturing more com- be a price worth paying for a reliable sup- 4.4bn barrels of shale oil in the Weald Basin petitive. Gas and electricity bills could fall ply of cheap, domestically produced fuel of southern England and a new report sug- and the rising trend in fuel poverty could be that contributes to the fight against climate gests there are even bigger shale oil resources reversed. In short, the exploration of shale change. But the government’s own Strategic below Leicestershire. gas is likely to provide a huge boost to UK Environmental Assessment (SEA) of 2013, In fact, there are many shale areas in Brit- industry and households. Let’s get fracking. is hardly reassuring. A very broad range of ain that have not been explored yet. And then assumptions underpins the scenarios in the there are the country’s gigantic offshore shale You make it sound like a gold rush. But consultation. On the likely duration of vehi- reserves which, according to the British Geo- NO is the argument really so simple as say- cle movements in the production develop- logical Survey, could be five to 10 times big- ing that if there is lots of oil and gas that ment stage, for instance, the range is from 32 ger than onshore reserves. could be exploited, it must be exploited, and to 145 weeks. There is similar uncertainty on In its shale gas report in May 2011, the damn the consequences? Even if this is what water, landscape, air quality and health. House of Commons Energy and Climate you believe, it’s not smart politics when pub- The SEA consultation suggests that we Change Committee has applied a conserv- lic confidence in fracking is so low. simply do not know enough about the likely ative recovery rate of 10 per cent to esti- The Campaign to Protect Rural England impact of fracking to be as gung-ho as you mate the technically recoverable shale gas (CPRE), an organisation I lead, does not and others (the Prime Minister, the Chancel- reserves. In America, however, advances in oppose fracking in principle, provided some lor, and so on) are. And it is partly the gung- fracking technology have pushed the aver- (fairly exacting) conditions are met. These ho, gold rush mentality that is alarming age recovery rate to almost 20 per cent. In relate mainly to its impact on the character reasonable people about fracking. You have some cases, up to 30 per cent of unconven- and tranquility of the countryside; whether not mentioned any downsides. Everything, as tional gas has been extracted. it will help us meet our climate change com- you present it, is good. Britain currently consumes around 2.7 mitments; and whether it is compatible with Is that what you believe? And are there are trillion cubic feet of gas per year. If 15-20 per the sustainable use of water and other nat- any environmental considerations that would cent of the estimated reserves could be eco- ural resources. On all these points, there is cause you to reconsider your economically- nomically recovered it would provide Brit- considerable doubt. driven desire to get fracking? PROSPECT JULY 2014 THE DUEL 23

I understand that green campaigners ernments were that reliable, the world would ronment. The only way to decide whether or YES object to shale gas development on have no serious environmental problems. not to go ahead is to assess the environmental environmental grounds. But their main con- Some of my friends are politicians, but you cost against the economic and social benefits. cern is its impact on UK energy policy. Cheap need to watch closely anyone with power. Shale gas extraction is no different. I believe and abundant shale gas is a competitive You say “vested interests have turned it will be developed because it will generate threat to renewable energy—and also to the campaigners against shale.” There are vested huge societal benefits. coal and nuclear industry. Vested interests interests everywhere, even in the oil and gas have turned campaigners against shale, often industry, but CPRE has no interests in this One of the main differences between making use of flawed and misleading envi- debate other than a good outcome for the NO your perspective and CPRE’s is that we ronmental arguments. countryside. A disinterested observer can see regard climate change as a major threat and Shale fracking is an established technol- that the issue is complex and full of uncer- support policies that will help mitigate it. You ogy that has been operating in the US for a tainties. But for the government it seems a suggest that we are opposed to fracking, but long time. It is estimated that around 2.5m done deal. The only role of local authorities we are open-minded, partly because of our wells have been fracked worldwide. If there will be to wave it through in return for cash. concern about climate change. The argu- were any significant environmental prob- That does not inspire confidence. ment that shale gas could help us transition lems with this process, governments around I asked you a question earlier: are there to a low carbon future is worth taking seri- the world would not be as keen as they are to are any environmental considerations that ously, though it is hard to see how shale oil develop their domestic shale resources. would cause you to reconsider your support could do so. Assessments undertaken by environmen- for fracking? Your response suggests that you Concern about climate change also leads tal agencies, but also by the Royal Society dismiss the possibility that fracking might us to support renewable energy where it does and Public Health England, have concluded cause unacceptable harm. It is fine in the not disproportionately harm the landscape. that shale gas development, with adequate wide open spaces of the US, so it must also be But we do oppose wind and solar farms that and effective regulations, is unlikely to pose OK in the English countryside. despoil the countryside. We have stopped any significant environmental risk. The height of a drilling rig is about that plenty of inappropriate renewable schemes. In the US, where President Barack Oba- of a medium-sized wind turbine, making it CPRE places great weight on the value of ma’s administration is promoting shale gas a distinctive feature in the landscape, par- the landscape, but we are not an anti-devel- as a solution to climate change, many green ticularly when lit up at night. A single drill- opment organisation (witness our position NGOs have begun to accept that unconven- ing pad could be working around the clock on HS2 or housing). We will support frack- tional gas is, on balance, better for the envi- for years. The impact of fracking on rural ing if we are persuaded that its benefits ronment than most other forms of energy. tranquility could be significant. And what of outweigh the harm it does. But I am not per- CO2 emissions in the US have dropped to shale oil? You talk of a “shale revolution,” but suaded that fracking will have no discernible 1990s levels as shale gas is replacing coal do you see shale oil being equally revolution- environmental impact—indeed, that we will power. Let’s not forget that some renew- ary or do you share our concerns that it will hardly notice it going on. able energy technologies have a negative increase carbon emissions, rather than help There may be a lot of shale gas and oil impact on the environment, like deforest- us transition to a low carbon future? under the ground; extracting it might help ation for biofuels or wind turbines that are solve our energy problems; talking about it spoiling the countryside and killing birds. The CPRE’s concern regarding the will certainly annoy environmentalists. You What is more, renewable energy turns out YES beauty and tranquility of rural Eng- may think these are good reasons to frack, to be much more expensive and increasingly land would be more credible if we had seen but they are not sufficient reasons. Unless the unpopular. Britons today are much more similar opposition to the construction of government and industry can show they take concerned about their energy bills than they thousands of wind and solar farms which are environmental concerns more seriously than are about climate change. They have become despoiling the countryside. If, as you seem to you appear to, they will not win the public’s sceptical about renewable energy because suggest, the CPRE no longer trusts the gov- consent on fracking. rising costs are becoming more obvious— ernment’s environmental agencies and Brit- Benny Peiser is Director of the Global Warming while gas prices have come down as a result ain’s stringent environmental regulations, Policy Foundation of increasing gas supplies. you risk manoeuvring yourself to the outer Shaun Spiers is Chief Executive of the Campaign The shale revolution is inevitable and fringes of the policy debate. to Protect Rural England won’t be stopped. In the US, a growing num- Most people are not aware that in Britain ber of green NGOs are beginning to accept some 2,000 onshore oil and gas wells have reality and are jumping on Obama’s shale been drilled, with about 10 per cent of them Is it time to frack in Britain? Tell us bandwagon. In the UK, green campaigners having been hydraulically fractured. Today, your view at have been able to hold off fracking for some there are more than 100 producing sites prospectmagazine.co.uk/theduel time, but I doubt the development of UK around Britain with 250 operating wells pro- shale gas will be blocked for much longer. ducing between 20,000 and 25,000 barrels of oil per day. This activity has been going on for I cannot speak for other green cam- decades without any significant environmen- NO paigners, but CPRE’s concern about tal problems, which is why most Britons have shale gas development is its impact on the not even noticed. environment, and on the beauty of rural Eng- I would certainly reconsider my support land. We want to be assured that the govern- for fracking if the cost of environmental ment is taking well-founded environmental damage evidently outweighed the economic concerns seriously. Unfortunately it is benefits it will generate for the UK econ- becoming increasingly hard to believe that omy and British families in general. When- they are. ever you want to build a motorway, a railway Your faith that governments would not or an airport, whenever you intend to build embrace fracking if there were significant a chemical plant, a factory or a power plant, “I don’t know, it just doesn’t environmental problems is touching. If gov- there will always be an impact on the envi- feel that original anymore.” 24 PROSPECT JULY 2014 Features Israel’s predicament 24 Labour’s trouble with Ed 34 The fog of war 38 UK tax is a nonsense 42 India’s cult of the Great Leader 46 Why Manchester works 52 Belarus: the next Crimea? 56

Israel: drifting towards disaster? The collapse of the latest peace talks leaves Israel “in a real bind” but may also open a new way through bronwen maddox

n early summer, the Golan Heights are covered with flow- tions to live peacefully together—or formally apart. ers; small scarlet poppies have seeded themselves among Thomas Friedman, the veteran New York Times columnist, the flowering thorn bushes, and in the haze rising from wrote recently that if Israel could not extract itself from the inti- the Sea of Galilee neat orchards of cherry trees are in full mate, bitter jigsaw of the West Bank, its future existence as a leaf. On the high plateau, which Israel seized from Syria in Jewish, democratic state would be in doubt. But the latest US-bro- I1967, American tourists examine abandoned artillery posts. But kered attempt, in more than 20 years of sustained effort, has just below, the soft crump of shellfire is audible from Arab villages; collapsed—with an almost unprecedented criticism of Israel from Syrian fighters supporting the Assad regime in Damascus, just 50 Washington. John Kerry, US Secretary of State, warned Israel minutes away along a road now choked with gunmen and check- that it risked becoming “an apartheid state” in its treatment of points, are firing at rebels, holed up in houses and farms. Neither Palestinians. He later said “if I could rewind the tape I would have side is firing at Israel—beyond the occasional shell, apparently chosen a different word,” but he had still given new currency to the accidental—which sometimes meets with fire in return. But the comparison with South Africa in the era of white minority rule, soundtrack of constant violence is a reminder of the turmoil on all a comparison which is vehemently rejected by Israel, but is still sides of Israel in the past three years, “since what we still optimisti- proving toxic for its reputation around the world. cally call the Arab Spring,” said one British official, adding laconi- It is clear that Israel is “in a real bind,” in the words of one cally, “and the Israelis, well, don’t.” Israeli TV commentator, for at least three new reasons. The first That turmoil is one new concern for Israel. Yet many argue is the demographic point that Friedman makes: the growth of the that its most serious threat lies inside its borders, in the perpetual Arab population within the territory that Israel controls threatens failure of its leaders and their Palestinian counterparts to forge a its identity as a Jewish-majority democracy. The second is the rise peace deal. Driving from the Heights back down to the coast, the in international criticism, even in the US, of Israel’s occupation of signs of that deadlock are even more stark at night. Clusters of the Palestinian territories, which is giving Palestinians new suc- minarets, glowing with green lights at their peak, mark out the cess in appealing to the United Nations and other global institu- dense, twisting streets of Tulkarm and Qalqilya, Palestinian towns tions for recognition and support. Meanwhile, the costs of Israel’s with a particularly militant history; jutting up against them are defence of the West Bank settlements are straining an economy the slabs of Israel’s new settlements, the target of searing interna- that is dazzlingly productive compared to its Arab neighbours but tional criticism, their fresh concrete walls lit to a brilliant white by still more vulnerable in the long term than many Israelis would high road lights. Separating the Arab from the Jewish housing are like to believe. the loops of the eight-metre high barrier wall, built by Israel partly “We are drifting towards disaster,” says one Israeli commenta- to shield itself from Palestinian suicide bombers; it has become a tor, of the vision of a future without any peace agreement. “If we worldwide symbol of the inability to find a way for the two popula- go much longer without a deal, it will be horrific for both sides,” said Khalil Shikaki, a respected Palestinian pollster on the West Bronwen Maddox is the Editor of Prospect Bank. The best hope may be that this sense of crisis forces new

Feature-Cover.indd 24 12/06/2014 18:11 PROSPECT JULY 2014 ISRAEL: DRIFTING TOWARDS DISASTER? 25 © BAZ RATNER/ REUTERS © BAZ RATNER/ The Israeli settlement of Har Homa. More than half a million Israelis live east of the 1967 line

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thinking into apparently intransigent quarters. In early June, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu left Knesset members in shock, according to reports, by acknowledging that Israel would have to “separate” from the Palestinians, his use of that word prompting speculation about whether he might even be contem- plating a unilateral withdrawal in the absence of a deal. Nine months of attempted peace talks ended abruptly on 24th April, five days before the deadline set by Kerry. To many, it was a surprise that they started at all. For more than two decades, US presidents and secretaries of state have lined up to throw them- selves at the hedge of thorns, convinced that they could hack through the thicket where others had failed. The Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995; the Wye River Memorandum of 1998; the Camp David summit in 2000; the destinations reached with such effort turned out to be mirages, succeeded by waves of violence and recrimination. “You were the greatest President of all,” said Yasser Arafat, in an oleaginous tribute to President Bill Clinton, who in his last months in office convened the Camp David talks but failed to find agreement between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and the Palestinian leader. “No,” came the stinging reply from Clin- ton, according to one story, “but you could have made me that.”

hat these latest talks started was down to Kerry, who decided to use the closing passage of President Barack Obama’s second term to have another go. Tall, angu- lar-faced, with an immobile cap of steel grey hair (all Tassets in Washington politics), and with a career forged in the high seriousness of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, “he was born to be Secretary of State,” one commentator said. There had been little sign previously that the Obama administration intended to initiate anything in the Middle East, where its pol- icy was in disarray. In June 2009, in a landmark speech in Cairo, Obama had tried to repair relations with the Arab world after the damage wrought by the US-led invasion of Iraq. But although he sharply criticised Israel for building the West Bank settlements, encroaching on land earmarked for a future Palestinian state, he

failed, in Arab eyes, to put real pressure on it to stop. Recently, 2012 SOURCE: OCHA his actions—or inaction—suggested only extreme unwillingness to Israeli settlements in the West Bank get involved in the region, whatever the petitions of close allies; he enraged Saudi Arabia by refusing to bomb the Assad regime, and to the existence of Israel and who run the Gaza Strip, one of the then appalled Israel by pursuing a deal with Iran over its nuclear two zones of the Palestinian territories. It was prompted, too, by programme. an incredulous frustration—the sense that the broad outlines of Kerry was driven by “an unfathomable obsession and a mes- a deal over a “two-state solution” of a Palestinian and an Israeli sianic feeling,” Moshe Yaalon, Israel’s Defence Minister, was state side-by-side have been clear for 20 years. But above all, there reported in the Israeli press as saying, adding sourly that he hoped was a sense of alarmed urgency in Washington that these three that the Secretary of State would “get a Nobel Peace Prize and new factors would make the status quo unsustainable, even if, for leave us alone.” After a furious riposte from the State Depart- some parts of Israeli society, tempting in the short run. Rockets ment Yaalon apologised, but others said—as a compliment—that are still fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel’s cities—one of the gibe was essentially true. “Kerry was magnificent,” said one the most recent on 11th June, although no one was hurt—and they British official; “he gave them nowhere to hide.” One senior Jor- are reaching further than before. Sitting in Tel Aviv cafes in the danian figure recounts with approval and amusement that when warm night air, it is easy to think that things could be worse, if only Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, told Kerry that he would because they so often have been; yet in the end, many in Washing- have to go back and consult his people—a line that Palestinian del- ton agreed that continuing as things were could be calamitous for egations had delivered down the years, to be followed with weeks Israel itself, as well as explosively intolerable for the Palestinians. or months of silence—Kerry said “Fine, see you tomorrow.” When “It would not take much for the whole cycle of violence to kick off Netanyahu said that he couldn’t travel to see him because of a reli- again,” said one western diplomat. gious holiday, Kerry said “Fine, I’ll come to you.” At the heart of Israel’s new predicament are the blunt demo- Kerry’s conviction, and Obama’s assent to the controversial mis- graphic trends. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, the sion, was inspired partly by a sense of opportunity; the overthrow population of Israel at the end of 2012 was just under eight mil- of the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt in July last year lion, of which three-quarters were Jewish, and just over a fifth weakened the Islamic militants of Hamas, who remain opposed Arab (mainly Muslim, with some Christian and Druze). But in

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the whole land controlled by Israel, including the West Bank and accessible to Palestinians the look of Swiss cheese. Gaza Strip, there are now about 12m people. The Central Bureau Ma’ale Adumim contains about 39,000 people; Ariel, with of Statistics announced in April 2012 that Jews now constituted a more than 18,000, extends in a long finger 20km into the West minority in the lands under Israeli rule—5.9m people compared to Bank, and the “municipal areas” which they claim extend far 6.1m non-Jews—and a minority that is growing smaller, given that beyond the area currently built up. In total, there are now more the Arab birth rate is higher. Israel faces a stark choice. It can shed than half a million Israeli Jews living east of the 1967 lines. The the West Bank and retain its Jewish majority. Or it can persist with UN estimated in 2012 that there were 325,000 in the West Bank, what is often now called the “one-state reality” or a “bi-national and in 2011 that there were 192,000 in East Jerusalem; although it state,” continuing to control the Palestinian territories but under- has not revised its published estimate, the totals have risen since. mining its claim to democracy because it does not allow all those While some are there out of conviction that the land historically people equal civil rights. “Israel cannot remain a democratic state belongs to the Jews, others find the housing is cheaper, more con- with a Jewish majority by holding on to the West Bank,” wrote the venient for work, or they just like it. The daily friction between Israel National Security Project, a think tank, last year. the populations has constant explosive potential; the Office for the That charge is one reason for the rise in international criticism, Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, part of the UN secretariat, the second new factor in Israel’s predicament. That criticism is reports between around 350 and 400 incidents of settler violence directed at many aspects of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian ter- a year against Palestinians, and in 2014, 11 Palestinians have been ritories, but is inflamed above all by the West Bank settlements, killed by Israeli Defence Force members in the West Bank. new houses and towns built by Israel on Arab land it captured in The expansion of the settlements is the prime reason why Isra- 1967, which are illegal under international law. Many started just el’s relations with many other countries are becoming more diffi- as outposts, but Israel’s government has often encouraged them, cult, as they clearly are. Martin Indyk, Kerry’s envoy to the region, offering subsidies to move there, and building roads and power and shocked the Israel lobby in May this year when he used a key water supplies, while extending to the settlers the protection of the speech to the pro-Israel Washington Institute to put considera- Israeli Defence Forces. They are off-limits to Palestinians, and so ble blame on the role of settlement expansion in the collapse of are the access roads knitting them together, giving the map of land the peace talks. German leaders since the Second World War

Pupils in 1st to 6th grades (6-12 years old), 2013 GDP per work hour in 34 OECD countries, 2012

GDP per work hour, 1970-2012, adjusted for PPP

Public expenditure in Secondary Education per pupil relative to GDP per capital, 1999-2010

SOURCE: TAUB CENTER FOR SOCIAL POLICY STUDIES IN ISRAEL

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have had a sense of intimate commitment to Israel but Chancel- rity remains paramount, but remain united in censure of the set- lor Angela Merkel, who has repeatedly called for a full halt to set- tlement expansion. In any case, whatever traction Israel achieves tlements expansion, said in February in Israel that “we are looking with these points at the diplomatic level, it appears to be hav- at the settlements issue with grave concern.” ing less success with broader public opinion. There seems to be In the UK, William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, has made it growing public appetite for the clear labelling of products origi- one of his most prominent themes. In April 2012, he said: “We and nating in settlements, worth about £200m of £8.3bn in Israeli our EU partners are clear: systematic, illegal Israeli settlement exports to the EU in 2011. The “boycott, divestment, sanctions” activity poses the most significant and live threat to the viability of (BDS) movement is gaining ground, although firmly opposed by the two-state solution.” In late 2012 when Netanyahu announced many EU governments including the UK and Germany. Driven his intention to build on E1, a particularly controversial hilltop by NGOs, churches and trades unions, it aims to persuade con- east of Jerusalem, Hague was on the phone in minutes to Laurent sumers not to buy products made on the occupied West Bank, Fabius, his French counterpart, to plan a coordinated response. companies to withdraw from there, and academics and artists In Israel in May last year, Hague said that “Israel has lost some of not to perform. Some flatly disagree; Scarlett Johansson, the film its support in Britain and in other European countries over time— actress, announced that she would surrender her role as goodwill this is something I’ve often pointed out to Israeli leaders—because ambassador with Oxfam in order to keep endorsing SodaStream, of settlement activity, which we condemn.” which has a factory in a West Bank settlement. But Vitens, the The EU last year published guidelines restricting the issuing of Dutch water company, cut ties with Israel’s national water com- grants, loans or prizes to entities with a presence in occupied Pal- pany because of settlement concerns, and Romania now demands estinian territories, and in December, UK Trade & Investment, a assurances that construction workers will not work on the West non-ministerial government department that promotes business Bank before it sends them there. abroad, published a warning to companies of the “legal and eco- Most wounding of all, perhaps, has been the new frequency nomic risks” of doing business with settlements, as well as “poten- of the “apartheid” tag; that usage has mainly been in online tial reputational implications.” forums and university campuses, however, hence the shock and The response by Israel to this criticism from other governments fury in Israel when Kerry used it, albeit in a closed-door session. has had at least three main strands. First, that every Israeli gov- Alan Johnson of Bicom, the Britain Israel Communications and ernment since 2000 has signed up to the principle of the two-state Research Centre, published a recent extensive report attacking solution. Second, that Israel has never had a negotiating counter- the “apartheid smear,” arguing that this comparison with the part on the Palestinian side who seemed willing and able to deliver racial subjugation of South Africa in the days of white minority adequate recognition of Israel’s right to exist or its need for secu- rule is grotesquely unfair on many counts—all the more as it is rity—and that people, even political leaders, sitting in other coun- directed at “the one democracy in the region.” Simon Schama, the tries, have no conception of what that need feels like in a country historian, has declared that “the parallel is false.” so often the target of terrorist attack. According to the Foreign Despite such ripostes, the label is gaining currency. In this long Ministry, 293 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks between conflict, fought with words even more than weapons, each side has 2000 and mid-2003, the high point of that wave of violence and “killer” phrases it thinks should end the debate altogether once before the West Bank barrier was largely in place. The neat plaque uttered, only to look up bemused as the syllables hurtle by with- on the garden wall of the Café de Paris in Jerusalem commemo- out inflicting lethal harm: “security” and “anti-Semitism” on the rating the 2002 bombing which killed 11 and wounded 54, or the Israeli side, and “occupation” on the Palestinian. In adding “apart- burned hulk of the Dolphinarium nightclub in Tel Aviv where 21 heid” to this armoury, the Palestinians may have found one that died in a 2001 attack—these physical reminders hardly do justice, does more damage than most. they say, to the sense of threat caused by the assaults on daily life. And even though Prime Minister Ariel Sharon pulled Israeli set- oes it matter to Israel what the world thinks? Many tlers out of the Gaza Strip in 2005, the continued attacks from Israeli commentators say, not much. “Hague? Who there (110 rockets in the first half of 2014, according to Israeli min- cares? We lost Europe years ago,” is one refrain. istries), undermine faith that the West Bank, if released from con- That dogged self-sufficiency is admirable in a sense; tinued Israeli military control, would not rapidly provide the base Dit springs from the spirit that created the country and defended for more attacks. it against repeated attack. All the same, the cost to Israel of this Third, they point out that Israel’s democracy is so energetically strain on foreign relations is great. Tzipi Livni, Justice Minister, representative that the bar for gaining seats in the Knesset is very argued in May that “settlement construction makes it impossible low; that allows small parties committed to settlement expansion, to defend Israel around the world.” Not only is the EU its largest whether for religious, nationalistic or economic reasons, to hold trading partner, but European values should forge a natural bond. a coalition hostage. They add that settlements are the subject of Yet the 1970s seem almost unimaginably distant, when leftish stu- intense and growing debate within Israel itself. While some par- dents in Britain and other European countries instinctively sided ties favour their expansion, Yair Lapid, Finance Minister and head with the brave new country and its socialist ideals, thousands of of the centrist Yesh Atid party within the coalition government, them flocking to work on an Israeli kibbutz, getting up at 4am to said in early June that “There is no reason to continue to build set- pick fruit with others who had come to live the ideal of the com- tlements in areas that will not remain part of Israel in any future munal life. Now, the left-of-centre support goes almost automat- agreement [with the Palestinians] or to invest billions in infra- ically to the Palestinian side, despite the antipathy that many of structure that at the end of the day will be given as a present to these people would surely feel if closely confronted with the mores the Palestinians.” of many conservative Arab villages. The US and many European governments accept some of these In the region, too, the cost of the deadlock to Israel is high. It arguments, up to a point; they all repeatedly say that Israel’s secu- renders unthinkable potentially useful alliances—or at least the

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quiet acknowledgement of common interests—such as the con- cern Israel shares with Saudi Arabia over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. And it makes inaccessible the admittedly always remote prize dan- gled by the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative—formal recognition of Israel by the region in return for a Palestinian deal. This rising criticism has also helped the Palestinians in a tactic of new success: appealing formally to international institutions, and laying the path to apply to them for legal recourse. In Sep- tember 2011, the Palestinian Authority applied to the UN for rec- ognition as a nation; the bid was approved by the (often anti-US leaning) General Assembly in November 2012, when 138 countries voted in favour, although the US voted against the resolution and the UK abstained. Michael Oren, former Israeli Ambassador to the US, warned in April that “Palestinians turning to UN institu- tions potentially exposes Israel to massive sanctions and Tel Aviv has to deal with all these threats seriously.” But in all calculations of the cost, the US matters above all. On the one hand, support in Congress is still rock solid in the Senate and the House of Representatives and in both parties, and it seems unlikely that any presidential candidates for 2016 will be as criti- cal of Israel as Obama. Hillary Clinton, who seems almost certain to run for the Democratic nomination, has veered away from crit- icism of Israel. On the Republican side, conservative donors have demanded vigorous support for Israel from candidates; super- donor Sheldon Adelson drew an apology from Chris Christie, at a point when he seemed a serious contender for the nomination, for describing the West Bank as the Occupied Territories, although the term is routinely used by the UN. In any case, the affinity of America for Arab causes was never very high, even before 9/11. The deeper question, however, is whether Obama is not a one- after age 11 by the children of the ultra-Orthodox community, off: whether his comparative cool towards Israel is a sign of the sent to yeshivas, or religious schools, after that age. The children future distance the US may come to feel; less engaged, and more of Arab-Israeli families have also been poorly educated, although inclined to question the cost of the alliance when it becomes high. this is improving. That is almost half of the population receiving The US’s exhilaration in its new energy independence after the an education equivalent to that of the third world, he argues. “If discovery of shale gas is real; Ehud Barak, when Israel’s Defence we’re heading towards a third world economy in several decades, Minister, spoke of his fears that this would weaken ties to the it can’t support a first world army. And if we’re not able to pro- region. Sandy Berger, former National Security Advisor, told the tect ourselves, we’re finished.” Defence took up a huge 5.7 per cent Herzliya Conference in Israel in June that US involvement could of the budget in 2012, while the settlements, which cost $17bn to not be taken for granted. The biggest change may come as the build, cost more to support, notes the Macro Center for Political Hispanic share of the US population rises. Maybe those voters, Economics. Those costs would hardly disappear if a peace deal now mainly Catholic, will support Israel as passionately as have were reached, of course, nor is the budget deficit of 3.2 per cent of the evangelical churches (and the Pope’s recent visit to Israel pro- GDP last year a serious concern. But the fear is that if the Knesset voked much comment). But many reckon that they will be less does not muster agreement to reverse these longer term trends, interested than Americans generally have been. In this future, the the country’s eventual ability to fund its own protection will fall— US would still be loyal to Israel, but an ageing guardian with its never mind if a new conflict erupted on its borders. own problems and in indefinable ways, further away. The third new problem is the economy, where the deadlock has iven all the new reasons for urgency behind these talks, added at least some costs, although real cause for alarm about what went wrong? Many argue that the US was simply the long-term future is concealed by the present glittering suc- too ambitious, trying to make a dash in nine months cess of the hi-tech sector. “The economy is really two Israels in to clear the obstacles of two decades: the borders, the one,” says Dan Ben-David, a social scientist at the Taub Center Gextent to which Israel would swap tracts of its own land for the For Social Policy Studies in Israel, whose report “The State of the right to annex the main settlement blocs; whether Jerusalem Nation” has provoked heated debates in the Knesset. Hi-tech inge- would be shared as a capital and if so how; the right of Palestin- nuity drove exports in 2013 to $61bn (£36bn); as a comparison, the ian refugees to return; Israel’s need for security. But many also non-oil exports of Saudi Arabia (only 10 per cent of the total) were say that Kerry made a tactical mistake at the beginning in offer- just $38bn. But that conceals how key indicators are falling behind ing Netanyahu a choice of three goodwill gestures to get the talks OECD levels largely because of lack of education and investment underway: releasing around 100 Palestinian prisoners, freezing in infrastructure. The gap in productivity compared to the OECD settlement building, or negotiating on the basis of 1967 borders (see chart, p28) steals away the prospect of wage rises, and with plus land swaps. Netanyahu chose the prisoner release, which that, the way to hold on to the brightest. was easier for his coalition to accept than a settlement freeze, but Ben-David points particularly to the poor education received arguably worse in public opinion given the anger towards some

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of these prisoners for killing Israelis. It also, he later suggested, Left, John Kerry with Benjamin Netanyahu. Above, a Palestinian was an implicit licence to continue announcing more settlement protestor kicks a burning tyre towards Israeli soldiers in May units—13,000 new ones during the period of the talks. Indyk’s view of the role of those announcements in under- there are flecks of hope. Polls consistently show that a majority of mining the talks is shared by many. “Settlement building was the the public on each side still wants a two-state solution. It is helpful first among equals,” said one western diplomat. But Palestinians that Abbas appears to have persuaded his council of the case for a undermined trust in turn by signing up to 15 international meas- deal, while Netanyahu himself seems to have shifted position far ures in April before the end of the talks. Abbas “mentally checked more than is often credited. Perhaps the greatest reason is that the out” months before, said one observer; when Israel decided to consciousness of Israel’s growing predicament is prompting many release the prisoners in batches, he thought “If you [Kerry] can’t to sketch out ways of edging along a path that lies somewhere give me 30 prisoners, how can you give me Jerusalem?” The talks between a fully-negotiated two-state solution and the status quo. finally collapsed when Abbas’s Fatah party in Ramallah signed a Those include Ehud Barak, former Prime Minister; Dan Meridor, pact with Hamas in Gaza to form a new unity Palestinian govern- longtime politician; Michael Oren—influential voices, if not all in ment, albeit composed only of “technocrats,” and Israel, saying the frontline of politics. Some commentators are musing over a that it refused to deal with Hamas, pulled out. unilateral withdrawal, others a retreat to the probable borders set “Neither side wanted a deal anything like as much as the US out in a future deal. did,” said one observer. “The US has retreated to let them both It would be grandiose to call this the last chance. As Indyk said stew in their own juice,” said another. For a few weeks, each side recently, “in the Middle East, it’s never over.” It would be extraor- was studiedly restrained, Israel not announcing new settlements, dinary if a country whose people willed it into modern existence, and Palestinians not applying to more international bodies for and which has fought repeatedly for its own survival, irrevocably recognition. However, the potential for escalation is clear—and jeopardised its own future. Israel’s sheer vitality is often invisible it may have begun. Uri Ariel, the Housing Minister, announced to those who deal only with its diplomacy; one columnist said his 1,500 more settlement units in June. Abbas is said to have 48 inter- most-read article ever, worldwide, after a lifetime writing about national applications signed and “ready to go, in his drawer.” Each the peace process, was about what to do in Tel Aviv over a week- has one explosive card: for Palestinians, it is applying to the Inter- end. But there is a sense of a drift towards danger; this is a portrait national Criminal Court to bring cases against Israel; for Israel, it of a democracy which apparently cannot elect a government that is building on “E1”. Shikaki, the pollster, points out that some of can solve its greatest problems—economic as well as diplomatic— the applications for international recognition would trigger a can- even though a majority of its people repeatedly say that is what cellation of US and Israeli revenues which support the Palestinian they want. As one senior British official put it: “This is barely any- government; without those funds, he predicts, the result could be more about who is more right or who is more to blame. The ques- the third intifada or uprising. tion is where this is going for Israel, as well as the Palestinians, if For all that gloom, however, suspended in the bright, dusty air the years continue to pass and there simply is no deal.”

Feature-Cover.indd 33 12/06/2014 18:12 34 PROSPECT JULY 2014 The trouble with Ed How can the Labour leader revive his fortunes? peter kellner

e is strong. He understands voters’ problems. He utation for economic competence, navigating the tricky politics knows how the economy ticks, and how to make of recession and recovery, and holding together a Labour Party it tick faster. He would fight for Britain’s interests that has historically been fractious after losing power. We can’t and stand firm in a crisis. He keeps his promises. be certain how well he would have done. (It’s worth remembering He is the ideal candidate for Prime Minister. that David, a committed advocate of New Labour, might have pro- HSadly for Ed Miliband, few voters think he fits the bill. Almost voked more internal divisions than Ed). four years into his leadership of the Labour Party, and with just The real point is that this finding indicates how disappointed 10 months to go until next year’s election, Miliband has yet to per- many voters are in Ed’s performance. Millions remain uncon- suade the electorate that he has the personal qualities needed to vinced by the coalition’s record and would like to back a Labour lead Britain. As a result, Labour is only narrowly ahead of the leader, but don’t think Ed is a match for Cameron. Conservatives, instead of enjoying the double-digit lead that oppo- Why not? We can rule out one theory, which the Conservatives sitions generally need at this stage in the political cycle if they are have advanced from time to time: that “Red Ed” is too left-wing to return to power. for the electorate. If anything, voters—including many Conserva- It’s not just what the polls have been showing. Recent elections tives—are often keener than Miliband on left-wing measures, such tell the same story of Labour’s electoral vulnerability: they led the as nationalising the railways, curbing bankers’ pay and blocking Tories by just 1 to 2 per cent in the local and European elections, foreign takeovers of British companies. despite the Tories shedding votes to Ukip that are likely to return Miliband’s problem is more personal. By more than four-to- home next May; and they saw a fall in their vote in Newark—the one, voters regard him as weak rather than strong; by three to one kind of by-election where Labour performed much more strongly they say he is simply not up to the job of Prime Minister. On both when Tony Blair and Neil Kinnock were opposition leaders. measures, Cameron scores more positive than negative responses. What has gone wrong? YouGov’s regular tracker questions A third comparison of the two men is arguably even more trou- show how Miliband’s attempts to win voters over have failed. bling. We asked people whether they thought the Prime Minister Fresh research for Prospect helps to explain his failure—and sug- and opposition leader were “in touch or out of touch with the con- gest what he must do to revive his fortunes. cerns of people like you.” This is where one might expect Miliband Back in September 2010, a few days after Miliband defeated his to do well and Cameron badly. That’s half right: only 20 per cent brother in the battle to lead Labour, YouGov asked people which think the Prime Minister is in touch. But Miliband’s figure is only of the three main party leaders would make the best Prime Minis- slightly higher: 25 per cent. Tory attacks on Miliband’s ideology ter. David Cameron, on 40 per cent, was well ahead of Miliband on have failed, but his opponents in politics and the media have struck 25 per cent and Clegg on 8 per cent. At that stage, Miliband was home with comments that his family, upbringing, education and not well known to the wider public. His hope was that voters would career have been far removed from the experiences of normal folk. warm to him as they got to know him. These perceived personal deficiencies are worsened by a real It hasn’t happened. Cameron’s figure remained at 38 per cent, political drawback—not ideological fervour but economic incom- plus or minus three points, until after the “omnishambles” budget petence. We tested two criticisms that are often levelled at him: in 2010. It then slipped, and has generally been in the low-to-mid 30s since. But Miliband has not benefited at all. His rating has • “He hasn’t learned the lessons from the mistakes made seldom climbed above that initial 25 per cent and is currently managing the government’s finances when Labour was in slightly below that level. government.” Agree 52 per cent; disagree 26 per cent; don’t Did Labour choose the wrong brother, as many people argue? know 23 per cent. We tested this by repeating the best Prime Minister question, but substituting David for Ed. The result is startling. David Miliband • “He doesn’t really understand how well-run businesses help scores 35 per cent, 12 points more than Ed, while Cameron tum- Britain’s economy to grow.” Agree 46 per cent; disagree 27 per bles 10 points to 23 per cent. cent; don’t know 28 per cent. Would a David Miliband-led Labour Party be heading for vic- tory next year, rather than the close contest that seems likely? Very These are bad figures, but they do contain one glimmer of hope. possibly, but we can’t be sure. Voters’ judgements about Ed are Many people have yet to make up their mind on these points. This based on his performance; their views about David are based on a is because millions of voters pay close attention to politics only at hypothesis. Had he won back in 2010, he would have had to grap- election time. In principle, Miliband will have the chance over the ple with many of the same problems as Ed: reviving Labour’s rep- next 10 months to win over such people—although, of course, the Conservatives will be trying equally hard to persuade them that Peter Kellner is President of YouGov Labour’s leader cannot be trusted with the nation’s finances. PROSPECT JULY 2014 THE TROUBLE WITH ED 35

Which of these would make the best Prime Minister? % Suppose Labour had elected David Miliband as leader, who David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg Don’t know would be best Prime Minister? David David 42 38 40 38 Cameron Miliband 35 23 31 32 33 35 23 23 21 23 %

4 5 5 6 38 4

June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 Don’t know Nick Clegg

If Britain had a Labour government led by Ed Miliband, would he succeed or fail in his attempts to do each of the following? %

54 53 53 54 55 50 51

31 31 29 28 27 21 23 22 22 23 19 18 17 19

Reduce number Ensure efficient Keep gas and Improve the Stand up for Strengthen the Make the of children running of electricity standard of Britain in its Government’s economy grow growing up in hospitals and prices as low as living of people relations with the nances faster poverty schools possible like me European Union

64 40 38

Increase 22 Succeed 22 number Reduce number of homes Fail 15 of immigrants built in Britain arriving in Britain each year Don't know each year

He is…

Thinking about He is… David Cameron and In touch with my concerns Out of Ed Miliband, which of these touch statements comes closest to your 18 Neither* view of either? % Cameron 20 62 He is… Up to the job of Prime Minister? 23 Not up to the job Miliband 25 Neither* 52

18 30 He is… Cameron 43 Cameron 37 Strong 39 33 Weak Neither* 20 27 Miliband 20 Miliband 13 60 59 *or don’t know 36 THE TROUBLE WITH ED PROSPECT JULY 2014

For the moment, the Tories remain ahead. We have repeated a voters to tilt Con-Lab marginals Labour’s way. If Labour is to win question we first asked three years ago, shortly after Ed Balls suc- a real mandate, rather than gamble on crawling past the winning ceeded Alan Johnson as Labour’s Shadow Chancellor. Who do we post by default, it must tackle its, and its leader’s, weaknesses. In trust more to run Britain’s economy: David Cameron and George addition to the normal policy and campaigning challenges that Osborne, or Ed Miliband and Ed Balls? The Conservative pair out- face any opposition, there are four tasks that cannot wait. score the Labour pair 36-25 per cent, with 39 per cent don’t knows. First, they must blunt the Tory attack that the last Labour These are the lowest figures we have recorded for Miliband and government caused the recession. It’s too late to persuade voters Balls—and the highest number of “don’t knows.” Again, there is that Gordon Brown was blameless, but Miliband can still argue a chance over the next 10 months to coax uncertain voters off the that leading politicians and bankers around the world (including fence, albeit after three years of making no progress. On the other the Conservatives) misjudged the risks prior to 2008. His oppor- hand, the Tories will be able to trumpet continuing recovery to tunity is to say that the world has changed, everyone has lessons protect their lead. to learn, and Labour has learned them. As our poll shows, too few If Miliband can neutralise the Tories’ advantage on the econ- of us believe that. omy, then he may be able to shift another indicator that is causing This leads to the second imperative: Miliband must show that him problems. From time to time over the past 10 years we have he knows how to harness the dynamism of capitalism to the ben- asked people to imagine that the opposition came to power and efit of all. He has made forays into specific topics, such as energy its leader became Prime Minister. Would they be delighted, dis- prices, banks and, more recently, the housing market. Voters have mayed or not mind? We have always found that far more people yet to see him join the dots together to provide a bigger picture. say “dismayed” than “delighted,” whether they were asked about “Milibandism” has nothing like the clarity of “Thatcherism.” Nor Michael Howard, Cameron or Miliband. Just 18 per cent would be has he said enough about how Labour would help, rather than delighted by a Miliband victory. Even if we count “wouldn’t mind” merely regulate, businesses to grow. Every Labour pronounce- as a cautiously positive view, then we find that Labour today is still ment on business should answer this question: if a young British in negative territory (44 per cent dismayed, 41 per cent delighted equivalent of Bill Gates or Steve Jobs were starting out today, how or wouldn’t mind). This contrasts with the Conservatives shortly would Labour help them to succeed? before the 2010 general election (41 per cent negative, 48 per cent This ambition needs Miliband to secure third-party endorse- positive) and the 2005 election (positives and negatives both 44 ments for each new policy. Privately, some energy company execu- per cent). Even Labour voters have only limited enthusiasm, with tives support Miliband’s plans to reform their market, just as there just over half, 57 per cent saying they would be delighted. Plainly, are decent bankers and landlords who would welcome new rules Miliband must both fire the passions of Labour supporters, and for financial services and rented homes. But if any of them have address the fears of those people who would benefit from a change said so publicly, their remarks have gone unnoticed. Voters need of government but are not currently inclined to vote for one. to be convinced that Miliband’s plans really will work, and they One big reason for this lack of enthusiasm is a widespread fear are unlikely to take his word for it that they will. He needs rele- that a Miliband government would fail to solve Britain’s big prob- vant business leaders, and not just trade unionists, academics and lems. On only one does he come out ahead—and then only just: friendly journalists, who will tell us: “Yes, this makes sense.” 40 per cent think his administration would boost home-building, Finally, Miliband must start sounding like a Prime Minister in while 38 per cent think it would not. On everything else we tested, waiting rather than a perpetually angry critic of the coalition. His fewer than one-third think a Miliband government would succeed. attacks on Cameron are often well-argued and sometimes witty— They include his pledge to keep gas and electricity prices as low as but are almost always counter-productive. Despite having been a possible. Even more alarmingly, his worst scores relate to the three Cabinet minister, he gives too many voters the impression that he issues of greatest concern to millions of voters: strengthening the is a rookie debater, not a potential national leader. Unfair? Possi- government’s finances (23 per cent say he would succeed, 54 per bly. But politics is seldom fair. In 1997, Tony Blair (who had never cent fail), making the economy grow faster (22 per cent against 55 been any kind of minister) showed that youthful vigour and pub- per cent) and reducing the number of immigrants arriving in Brit- lic respect can go together. Miliband may wish to distance himself ain each year (15 per cent to 64 per cent). from some of Blair’s later decisions, but he needs to find ways to Is defeat inevitable? Not yet. One reason is that victory needs emulate Blair’s early appeal. fewer votes than in the past. In the 1950s, the target was almost 50 per cent of the popular vote. By the 1980s it was 40 per cent. In 2005, Labour won outright with 36 per cent. It is just possible that Miliband could become Prime Minister at the head of a Labour- Lib Dem coalition government with only one-in-three voters back- ing Labour and twice as many supporting other parties. This is why there has been so much talk of a “core vote” strat- egy, aimed at the 35 per cent who, it is believed, would vote Labour in order to eject the coalition from office. However, this strategy depends on two assumptions that might prove mistaken: first, that Labour’s core vote really is 35 per cent (it fell five points short of that in 2010); second, that 35 per cent will be enough. For although Labour might become the largest party with 33-34 per cent, it might need 36-37 per cent. The lower target depends on enough Lib Dem MPs holding their seats where the Tories came second last time—and Ukip hanging on to enough former Conservative “He’s trying to get our message across.” 48 PROSPECT JULY 2014 © SEAN GALLUP/GETTY IMAGES © SEAN GALLUP/GETTY The fog of war Germany is uncertain about how to commemorate the First World War hew strachan

he centenary of the First World War is upon us. The There is one big difference, however, between the Federal opening shots have already been fired, and not just Republic and its western neighbours. The governments of in Britain. In Bonn, one of the most important exhi- its erstwhile enemies, now allies, have devoted considerable bitions marking the anniversary, which falls in early resources to the centenary. In November 2011, for example, the August (marking Germany’s declaration of war then-president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, declared that the Ton Russia and France in 1914), has already closed. A number of First World War was second only to the revolution of 1789 in its further exhibitions will be mounted in Germany, whose collec- significance for his country. French losses in the war were twice tive memory of the war has been overshadowed for understand- those of Britain, but British losses in 1914-18 were twice those able and proper reasons by that of the Second World War and the of 1939-45. Given the impact on British society of those losses, Holocaust, though most of these are being organised at state as Prime Minister David Cameron’s announcement in October opposed to federal level. Its universities are as obsessed with hold- 2012 that the government would play a role in the commemora- ing conferences on the subject as are those in Britain and France. tion of the outbreak of war was equally logical. The German government, meanwhile, has been largely silent. Hew Strachan is Chichele Professor of the History of War at the University The Bonn exhibition enjoyed the patronage of Joachim Gauck, of Oxford the President, but Chancellor Angela Merkel has remained aloof. PROSPECT JULY 2014 THE FOG OF WAR 49

German politicians mark Volkstrauertag—Remembrance Sunday—on Many German historians eventually modified their own posi- 16th November 2008 tions: raised as pure Fischerites, they now acknowledged the need to incorporate the unequivocal evidence that it was Vienna, not Last year’s elections were one reason. However, the formation of a Berlin, that wanted war, albeit a localised one. Last year, Herfried new governing coalition between Merkel’s Christian Democratic Münkler, a Berlin-based political scientist who is Germany’s lead- Union and the Social Democrats has not produced the major ing commentator on war, published what was pitched as the first statement many expected. When she came to Britain on 27th major general history of the First World War to appear in Ger- February, she paid tribute to Britain’s role in both world wars and man since 1968. He distinguished between “guilt,” the tainted to the losses incurred by its armed forces, but went no further. word allegedly used by the peacemakers in 1919, and “responsibil- The British press is not alone in noticing her uncertainty as to ity,” the word they actually used. Although he does not exempt the how to deal with the legacy of the First World War; so, increas- Kaiserreich from blame, his stress is on collective responsibility: ingly, are many Germans. At the end of February, a spokesperson Europe, in the words used by Lloyd George in his memoirs and for the left-wing party Die Linke regretted that Germany had which now figures regularly in headlines of the German press, allocated only around €4m to the centenary. The significance “slithered over the brink into the boiling cauldron of war.” of the First World War in the history of socialism in the 20th Last year, the publication in German of Christopher Clark’s century is considerable (not that anybody in Britain, including book The Sleepwalkers, which stresses the war’s Balkan origins, those in the Labour Party, seems to have noticed). There is a dip- caught a current just as it was gathering pace. It is important that lomatic aspect to this, too. Michael Epkenhans, the head of the Clark is not a German. What gives him credibility is that he is an military history office of the Bundeswehr, the German armed Australian working in Cambridge. His book has sold well in many forces, and himself a distinguished historian of the war, regrets countries, but only in Germany is it, to borrow a phrase used by Germany’s absence from a commemoration in which most of the historians Gerd Krumeich and Stig Förster, “balm to the soul.” Europe is now involved. In Clark’s interpretation, Germans are relieved on two counts. To understand why Germany is so uncertain it is necessary First, he specifically rejects the idea of guilt, stressing that his to go back to the 50th anniversary of the outbreak of war. Just purpose is simply to explain how the war came about. Second, his before it, in 1961, the Hamburg historian Fritz Fischer published title, which has struck many historians as overdone (these states- the first of two major books on Germany’s role in the war (the men were awake enough to know they were risking war), relieves second appeared in 1969). Together, they challenged the consen- Germany even of responsibility, let alone guilt. Today, unlike a sus that had emerged in the 1930s and according to which no one decade ago, most Germans no longer believe that Germany bears power was responsible for starting the war. For Fischer, Germany the principal share of the blame for precipitating conflict in 1914. stood guilty as charged by the peacemakers at Versailles in 1919. That should make things much easier for Merkel. Admittedly, This did not go down well with most of his colleagues. Strug- there are dissenting voices. Now in their seventies and eighties, gling to come to terms with the legacy of Hitler and the Nazis, the generation of historians closest to Fischer—Hans-Ulrich they resisted an interpretation which made the Kaiser and impe- Wehler in Germany, John Röhl, the Kaiser’s biographer who is rial Germany the forebears of the Third Reich. In the national based in Britain, and Volker Berghahn in the United States— furore that followed several of the young scholars who had been remains loyal to the idea that Germany caused the war. Younger persuaded by the Fischer thesis found themselves unable to historians who had begun to moderate their views before the secure academic jobs, and migrated to Britain and America. publication of The Sleepwalkers, feel that Clark has pushed the Only in East Germany (home to the young Merkel) could Fis- argument too far. For Epkenhans, for example, the major deci- cher be sure of a hearing. sions were still taken in Berlin, with Germany “picking up and In the long run, the Fischer thesis gained increasing traction, playing the Austrian ball.” Krumeich, who has himself published especially after German reunification in 1990. The Holocaust a new book on the crisis of July 1914, thinks that Clark’s empha- exhibition which toured Germany in the 1990s showed how the sis on pan-Slavism and the pressure placed on Austria-Hungary German army—and by extension the German people—had col- by Russia produces “extremely eccentric judgements on the poli- luded in the crimes of Hitler and his henchmen. The sense of col- tics of the July crisis.” So far, however, neither group of critics has lective responsibility for the Second World War made accepting mounted a coordinated assault on Clark’s position. it for the First as well seem more logical. Ten years ago, on the Ironically, Clark’s critics are more numerous in Britain than 90th anniversary of 1914, the Fischer thesis dominated German in Germany. Suddenly, Fischer’s arguments, however dated understanding of the war. they might look to academics, are fashionable among the Brit- Fischer’s arguments had almost no impact on the British com- ish chattering classes. In an article in the Daily Mail in January, memoration of the 50th anniversary, which was as parochial as so in which he dismissed as left-wing those who believe the war in much of what is planned for the 100th threatens to be. For those 1914 was not necessary, Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, anxious to argue that for Britain this was a justified and “nec- crudely politicised the debate. essary” war, as opposed to “a war of choice,” Fischer provided What followed was absurd: Fischer was not called in evi- strong supporting evidence. Yet Field Marshal Douglas Haig’s dence, but the television comedy Blackadder was. One of the most energetic defender at the time, John Terraine, did not cite programme’s stars, Tony Robinson, became Gove’s principal him. More recently, especially over the past 20 years, academic antagonist. The historian Gary Sheffield, Terraine’s successor as historians outside Germany have been moving away from the the defender of Haig, duly weighed in with supporting fire. The Fischer thesis, pointing out some obvious truths: that the war question of the causes of the war was conflated with its conduct, began in the Balkans, that the original belligerents were Austria- as though justifying one could also justify the other. What neither Hungary and Serbia, and that the reasons for one country going Gove nor his critics seemed to notice in the ensuing partisan to war did not necessarily apply to others. knockabout was that Alan Clark, the author of The Donkeys, an 50 THE FOG OF WAR PROSPECT JULY 2014

ill-informed and opinionated account of British generalship pub- imperial power—can be interpreted so narrowly by the Brit- lished close to the 50th anniversary in 1961, went on to become ish. Given Britain’s parochial perspective on its own history, rather better known as a Conservative MP. Now, as then, views it follows that Britons tend to think about the causes of the war about the causes of war do not divide neatly along political lines. almost exclusively in terms of Anglo-German antagonism. This narrow perspective was what united two apparently opposing takes on the outbreak of war broadcast by the BBC in the last week of February. “The Germans, despite their In the first programme, Max Hastings argued that war with professed ignorance of the Germany in 1914 was a necessity. Three days later, Niall Ferguson said it was a war Britain could and should have stayed out of. Nei- war, show greater awareness ther of them said anything of significance about the Balkans or of the important issues than Austria-Hungary. The same might be said of the BBC’s dramati- sation of the July crisis, 37 Days, transmitted a week later. Nations the British” other than Britain and Germany had only walk-on parts. Although their accounts were seemingly opposed, Hastings and Ferguson both relied on the Fischer thesis and the idea of his spat may help explain Merkel’s reticence when she German war guilt. Central to their arguments, stated explic- came to Britain in February. Gove’s words were charac- itly in Ferguson’s case but implicit in Hastings’s, was the idea of terised in the German press as celebrating “self-sacri- Mitteleuropa, a central European economic bloc dominated fice, honour, heroism and patriotism,” martial virtues by Germany. Fischer had addressed a wartime debate within Tabout which many Germans are now deeply sceptical. But their Germany in his first book and then looked for its origins in the concerns go further. Germans, however much they may have period before the war’s outbreak in his second, effectively argu- taken Clark’s book to heart, have not stopped calling the war ing that Germany sought war in order to bring the dream of the Urkatastrophe, the seminal disaster of the 20th century (cit- Mitteleuropa to fruition. Not only is the evidence for Fischer’s ing an American, George Kennan, as they do so), or seeing the case sparse, the argument is counter-intuitive. Why should a Treaty of Versailles as leading directly to the Second World War. state whose industrial output ranked second in the world only to For them, the First World War is the beginning of a 30-year war that of the United States (and above that of its principal trading that ended in 1945. Before 1914, the real Thirty Years War con- partner, Britain) want to restrict itself to a closed and localised stituted for Germans a folk memory of the horrors of war which market, when the whole world was potentially open to its goods? the First World War then revived: it had ravaged their land in the Three years ago, when lecturing at the Free University of Ber- 17th century as the two world wars would do in the 20th. Merkel’s lin about the approach of the centenary, I suggested, only half- speech to parliament, by referring to both world wars, implicitly jokingly, that the German approach to an anniversary which acknowledged these connections. would be politically challenging, both domestically and inter- A narrative in which the First World War is the precursor to nationally, might be to focus on the European Union. Euro- the Second brings Hitler back into the argument, of course. A peans now inhabit a continent so safe that, at least until the recent British Council report on attitudes to the centenary in Russian take-over of Crimea, they tended to take their secu- various countries calculated that, while an unsurprising 52 per rity for granted. That complacency can be attributed to the EU. cent of Germans see the war as having led to the rise of the Nazis, Although it is the direct consequence of the Second World War, a massive 62 per cent of Britons do. Gove, the German press has not the First, the men in the vanguard of the European move- concluded, wants to resuscitate the war guilt charge and cele- ment, such as the Frenchman Jean Monnet, were veterans of brate a British victory over Germany. the trenches, inspired by their experiences to construct a bet- British efforts to allay such concerns have been risible. ter world. On this reading, Mitteleuropa has now come to pass, The plan for reconciliation revolves around a football match, albeit at considerable cost to the continent in blood and treas- which may or may not have been played by a few atypical sol- ure, and with Germany acknowledging its position as hegemon diers in No Man’s Land during the 1914 Christmas truce. Only a only reluctantly. Today most European states, especially those few Germans (30 per cent) know about this “factoid,” whereas to its east, would, perversely, prefer Germany to be more asser- Britons are more aware of it than citizens of any other nation tive, not less. This is a far cry from the worries of the early 1990s, (67 per cent). In general the Germans, despite their pro- in the immediate aftermath of reunification, let alone the anxi- fessed ignorance of the war and their rejection of its relevance eties of 1914 or 1939. to their sense of national identity, show greater awareness of the important issues. Sixty-nine per cent, for instance, know n a speech delivered on 27th January 2014 the German that the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, Archduke Franz Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, broke the Fed- Ferdinand, was killed at Sarajevo in June 1914, whereas only 55 eral Republic’s silence on the centenary. He began by doing percent of Britons do. something most ministers would have hesitated to do in the The assassination of Ferdinand triggered the First Ilast three decades: he accepted the argument of The Sleepwalkers World War, but it was not directly relevant to Britain’s deci- that all the governments of Europe had played a role in the rush sion to fight—and to that extent comparative British igno- to war in 1914. The bulk of German public opinion now agrees rance is understandable. Britain entered the First World War with that interpretation. A large and rapid shift has occurred, because Germany turned west, and invaded Belgium and and it can be contrasted with British views, which seem to be France. That is why a general European war—although it very going in the opposite direction (suggesting that Hastings quickly became a world war, not least because Britain was an triumphed in his debate with Ferguson). Steinmeier urged his 52 THE FOG OF WAR PROSPECT JULY 2014 © POPPERFOTO/GETTY IMAGES © POPPERFOTO/GETTY British and German soldiers during the Christmas truce, 1914: two-thirds of Britons know about the football match that was supposedly played

audience to put the centenary to good use, and “to see the united invade France and Belgium to create the EU, any more than the Europe which we enjoy today as the lesson which we have derived Conservative Party supported the Liberal government to prevent from the drama of the world war.” The balance of power—which that from happening. The use of the past for contemporary pur- most Germans and many Britons would see as the reason Brit- poses is all around us: in Ireland the wars of 1912-22 are used ain entered the war—has been replaced by a system that depends to promote understanding, while in Scotland the First World on the rule of law. As a result, Steinmeier, like most Germans War has figured in the cases for both independence and the and other west Europeans (including the British), thinks war in maintenance of the union. But our current preoccupations are Europe is inconceivable. Beyond its borders, however, the malign not true windows to the past: we must not forget that over the influence of balance of power arguments still holds, particularly next four years. in parts of Africa, the Middle East and East Asia. Steinmeier did not name Russia, and the United States figured only by implica- Ten things you should know about the First World War at tion. However, he is not complacent: Europeans, he said, must www.prospectmagazine.co.uk rebound from the eurozone crisis to rebuild what they have achieved for the future. In Britain, the EU is an unmentionable legacy of the First World War for some members of the Conservative Party and presumably for all of Ukip. Angela Merkel, although her speech encompassed both the war and Europe, refrained from provok- ing her hosts by making the same link. Britain’s response to the war of 1914-18, like that of 1939-45, is shaped partly by the fact that it didn’t suffer mass slaughter on the scale seen in mainland Europe across the two wars. The story of Britain’s contribution to both world wars is something of which it can be proud, largely untainted, as it is, by atrocity and war crimes. Few, if any, states in mainland Europe are so lucky. Steinmeier’s call for Europe to rebuild itself is certainly stirring. But it has little, if anything, to do with the question of why European states went to war in 1914. Germany did not Of course, that was back in the day: no Twitter, only Facebook 42 PROSPECT JULY 2014 A mess and getting worse We all suffer from Britain’s jumbled tax code paul johnson © BUMPERMARK The tax system is marked by “inconsistencies, complexities and downright inequities”

overnment is a game of two halves—the spending encies, complexities and downright inequities which are hard to half and the taxing half. If the latter isn’t pretty square with any coherent set of objectives. Indeed these are often much as big as the former then in the long run we’ll the complexities and inconsistencies which allow tax avoidance be in trouble. To fund all the schools and hospitals, schemes to take root in the first place. police and armed forces, roads and pensions, we pay Depressingly things are, on the whole, not getting any better. Gmore than £600bn in tax each year. That’s about £4 in every £10 The problems don’t just relate to historical baggage. Many have generated by the economy. been actively created or knowingly allowed to occur by this govern- The tax half really ought to get as much attention from policy- ment and its predecessor. If that seems too pessimistic just con- makers, parliament and the public as the spending half. If you are sider some of the ways the system works at present. going to take that much money from people and businesses, you are going to have quite an effect on their incomes, their behaviour We have two entirely separate taxes on earnings and their welfare. But tax is different. While other bits of govern- We hear a lot about income tax, but rather less about national ment have strategy papers, white papers and green papers by the insurance (NI) contributions, which bring over £100bn a year into bucketful, no recent government has set out a proper tax strat- the Treasury coffers and are nothing more than a second tax on egy. And in parliament there isn’t even a select committee focused earnings. NI is charged on a different definition of earnings to that specifically on tax. The political debate seems limited to worrying used for assessing income tax, adding complexity and creating a about one or two headline tax rates, or an individual or company big and wholly unnecessary cost for business and HMRC. making use of some ferociously complicated avoidance scheme. Governments are delighted to exploit our collective lack of Partly as a result we have ended up with a jumble of inconsist- focus on NI. While income tax rates have fallen time and again, NI rates have risen. Why? Because that is what governments feel Paul Johnson is Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies they can get away with. This has had the effect, almost certainly PROSPECT JULY 2014 A MESS AND GETTING WORSE 43 unintended, of raising the effective rate of tax on earnings (and thresholds fall like this? What is the plan for these? Will they be workers) relative to the effective rate of tax on investment income kept fixed for much longer, drawing more and more people into (and pensioners). This government has boasted about taking hun- their net? dreds of thousands of working people out of income tax by spend- ing billions on increasing the personal allowance: the amount of The taxation of housing is a mess income workers earn before income tax is charged. But the govern- Council tax is the only tax I know of that is deliberately regressive; ment has taken almost no working people out of the direct tax net the amount you pay falls as a proportion of the value of your house because it has not raised the point at which NI starts to be paid. as the property becomes more valuable. More absurdly, in Eng- More than a million low earners are now paying NI but not paying land, the tax is assessed on the relative values of properties from income tax. Politicians genuinely focused on helping the low paid nearly a quarter of a century ago. Neither the last government nor should not be promising further increases in the income tax allow- this one has had the courage to do anything about it. We look set ance; they should be talking about the NI threshold. to enter the 2020s paying a tax determined by the relative value of properties in 1991. We continue to introduce new complications to the income And then there is stamp duty. Its rate has been increased again tax system and again despite the fact that it is one of our worst designed and A poorly understood policy brought in by the last government most damaging taxes. It ensures that the housing market works introduced a new 60 per cent rate of tax on incomes above even less efficiently, and it is designed in an absurd way. As you £100,000. The current government has extended it so that it now move into each new price band, the new rate of stamp duty is reaches to £120,000. It wasn’t sold like that; it was sold as taper- charged on the whole price of the house. At the extreme, a £1 ing away the tax free personal allowance. But the fact is that if you increase in the house price can result in a £40,000 increase in earn either £95,000 or £125,000 you face an income tax rate of 40 stamp duty. per cent. Yet if you earn between £100,000 and £120,000, the loss of the personal allowance results in a 60 per cent rate. Nobody knows what is happening to the taxation of pensions This government has announced that it wants to reward mar- If there is one part of the tax system where some long-term stabil- riage through the tax system. It will do that by making part of the ity and sense of direction is crucial then it is in the taxation of pen- personal allowance transferable between spouses where one is not sions. But we have absolutely no idea what is happening here. That making full use of it. This benefits couples where one works and makes it very hard for anyone to plan. one doesn’t work, or at least earns below the tax allowance. Under- Having set out a clear direction, the last government performed standably this is being introduced in a modest way, such that a volte face just a couple of years later and set in train an absurd nobody will benefit by more than around £200 a year. But this complication of the regime. The current government has substan- is a big and costly structural change to the system, which proba- tially reduced the generosity of income tax allowances, but has bly only makes sense if it is gradually extended as resources allow. given no sense of where it is headed. The Labour Party appears But the way it is being introduced makes that almost impossible, set on further complicating the system. And whatever you think because this £200 will be lost the moment one partner becomes of the most recent announcement on the taxation of annuities— a higher rate taxpayer. Earn £1 more, lose £200. It may not mat- effectively ending compulsory annuitisation—proudly springing it ter so much when the allowance is so small, but make it bigger and on the world unannounced and unconsulted upon is not the best this could become a major problem. way of making policy in this crucial area. Meanwhile the opposition wants to reintroduce the 10p start- ing rate of income tax it introduced and then abolished last time Businesses face continued change and instability round. There is no justification for this additional income tax Businesses, especially small businesses, have many gripes about band. It achieves nothing that increasing the personal allowance the tax system. Constant change is at the top of their list. That’s doesn’t achieve more straightforwardly and more progressively. not surprising: in recent years there have been, literally, annual And as we’ve already seen, those who genuinely want to help the changes to the levels and structures of business rates, corporation low paid through the tax system should raise the NI threshold. tax allowances and carbon taxes. To take just one example, con- sider the annual investment allowance, which allows the imme- We allow the tax system to expand through “fiscal drag” diate deduction of expenditure on most machinery from taxable In the past 25 years the number of higher rate (40p) income tax- profits. Knowing its level is an important consideration for invest- payers has trebled and will reach more than five million next year. ment decisions. The limit was set at £50,000 between 2008 and All three main UK parties seem very happy with this fundamen- 2010, when it increased to £100,000. It was cut to just £25,000 in tal, but unannounced, redesign of our income tax system. It is a 2012 but increased to £250,000, supposedly temporarily, in 2013. redesign that has, largely, crept up on us as the higher rate thresh- In the 2014 Budget it was raised again to £500,000, but on cur- old has fallen relative to average earnings—and more recently rent plans it will return to £25,000 in 2016. How is that supposed been cut in absolute terms. to help businesses that are planning for the future? We also now have several elements of the income tax system that do not rise with inflation at all. These include the £100,000 There is much about the tax system that works. HMRC manages point at which the personal allowance starts to be tapered away to collect the great majority of tax due without having to do very (and the 60 per cent rate of income tax becomes payable) and much. We are, on the whole, a compliant nation. But there is a real the £150,000 point at which the 45p rate becomes payable. Both and very substantial cost to all the problems that do exist. They have fallen by more than 10 per cent relative to prices since being hold back growth and mean we are all worse off than we need to introduced four years ago. If this government is so concerned be. Tax reform may be politically treacherous territory, but failing about high marginal tax rates why has it let the real value of these to do it is economically indefensible. 44 A MESS AND GETTING WORSE PROSPECT JULY 2014

What is tax for?

philip collins

he most important piece of legislation this year was should be allowed to keep as much of the money they have earned not contained in the Queen’s Speech. It was passed on as possible. The operative word in that sentence, which is the key 5th April when the application for a mandate to renew to what a system of taxation ought to be for, is “earned.” income tax was raised in parliament. Income tax, which To find the best principle for taxation we need to go back a cen- Twas first levied in 1799 to raise funds for the Napoleonic Wars, is, tury. In his Budget of 1907, Herbert Asquith set the terms for fair strictly speaking, temporary to this day. The government has to taxation: as far as possible avoid imposts on work and endeav- pass an annual Finance Act to make income tax legal again. our and seek instead to locate idle wealth, the fruits of which, as This oddity contains a message. Tax will never be popular and John Stuart Mill memorably said, “fall into our mouths while we income tax especially so. There is something about the taxing of sleep.” It is better, where possible, to levy a tax on activity that is income which has always been resisted. There have been peri- clearly harmful to others; in other words, to tax bad things rather ods when the entire political conversation seems to have turned than good things. These principles became the bedrock of Lloyd on whether it was, or was not, possible to increase (or for a Con- George’s “People’s Budget” of 1909. servative, cut) the top rate of income tax. To understand why, it is It is striking the extent to which we no longer follow these prin- important to heed what Albert Einstein said on filing tax returns: ciples. At the moment, 44 per cent of what we raise is a tax on our “This is too difficult for a mathematician. It takes a philosopher.” hard work. Just over half the tax take comes from activity of var- The underlying question is: what is tax for? The best answer ious kinds, much of it beneficial: Jim Callaghan’s 1965 taxes on is the most direct and the simplest. Taxation is an unfortunate business are a fifth of the total and consumption taxes account for necessity given the requirement to raise public funds in a complex about a third. That leaves 5 per cent on land and buildings, those society of many needs. static creators of unearned income that go under the technical Of course, tax comes freighted with moral arguments on both name described in Addington’s Act of 1803: schedule A taxation. sides. The social democrat tends to see tax as the road to the pro- The technical case for taxing property and land is excellent. gressive future. It is the means by which fairness, so evidently Unlike income, property is visible and the tax is therefore harder absent in the original market distribution of earnings, is allowed to evade. It might have the incidental benefit of helping to flatten a second chance. It is not merely the raising of money for social the volatile cycle in house prices. A levy on houses above a value programmes: it is itself a moral question. It is no coincidence that of £1m would also do something about the absurd north-south the only precise meaning that can be given to the all purpose left- divide in Britain, as 60 per cent of the revenue raised would come of-centre compliment “progressive” is with regard to income tax. from four London boroughs. The whole of England north of, and On the political right, virtue often gives way to vice. Taxation is including, Birmingham would pay just 2 per cent of the total. regularly conceived as an evil to be avoided, somehow an illegiti- This could be done by a revaluation of the council tax, which is mate confiscation of private property. This is linked to a sceptical still based on 1991 prices. Every house above a value of £320,000 account of how well government will spend the money gathered. pays the same amount. The obvious reform is to revalue proper- The non-libertarian right has always, in practice, presided over a ties now and introduce a graded property tax, proportional to the large state apparatus—indeed, the supposedly neo-liberal years value of the house. Anyone with a large house and little cash could of Margaret Thatcher added to public spending rather dramati- defer the levy and pay it out of the estate. cally—but the resultant taxation is usually seen as the necessary The next tax on unearned income should be the imposition of price of the devil’s work rather than a moral virtue in itself. capital gains on the family home. If the British continue to insist Whatever the assumptions at work in the minds of those who on a portfolio containing only a single item, then we should at least levy the charges, government has grown to the point where there treat that investment on a par with other asset classes. is going to be an awful lot of them. In 2011/12, the government set The other commodity which sits idle yielding unearned returns itself the task of raising £589bn. For a right-of-centre coalition is the land, of which there is a fixed and immovable supply of 60m that is an awful lot of taxing it would rather not do. Inevitably, the acres in the UK. The ownership of land is subject to windfall gains, most potent force was the power of inertia. The government car- deriving largely from public infrastructure which is developed on ried on taxing largely in the style that it had inherited. There was and around the holding. It should be taxed accordingly. So should no systematic attempt to describe the tax system in a grounded, the gains that accrue from large-scale construction. The economic philosophical way. George Osborne’s decision to cut the top rate rent created by high-speed rail, for example, should be taxed and of income tax from 50p to 45p was justified more on the grounds given to local authorities as an incentive to develop vacant lots. that the higher rate raised no money than that it was wrong for the This is no small measure, either. A tax of 1 per cent on the £5 state to take so much from the pay packet. trillion of British land would raise £50bn—enough to cut income The only exception to that rule was the Liberal Democrat- tax by a third or abolish corporation tax entirely. The objection, of inspired decision to increase the threshold under which people course, is neither technical nor philosophical, but political. As Mill pay no income tax at all. This is justified in public by senior Lib- once said in a letter to Henry Chapman: “I fully expect to offend eral Democrats precisely on the philosophical grounds that people and scandalise 10 times as many people as I shall please.” Perhaps there is a compromise. Perhaps it could be a tempo- Philip Collins is chief leader writer for the Times rary tax, renewable every year, just until it is no longer needed. 38 PROSPECT JULY 2014 REUTERS/ADNAN ABIDI © REUTERS/ADNAN Cult of the Great Leader Narendra Modi’s election victory threatens India’s secular identity ramachandra guha

t 6pm on 26th May, Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya electricity to his farmers; in another of how he had ended bureau- Janata Party (BJP) was sworn in as the 15th Prime cratic corruption; in a third of how he had overseen a revolution in Minister of India. Within an hour, the official web- the production and distribution of milk. site of the Prime Minister had been updated. After Each general election in India is unique. This time, it was evi- announcing that a new man had taken charge, the dent well before the actual polling that the ruling Congress Party Afirst paragraph of the amended site continued: would lose. Voters were disenchanted by rising prices and large- “In Narendra Modi, the people of India see a dynamic, deci- scale corruption in government. The Prime Minister, Manmohan sive and development-oriented leader who has emerged as a ray of Singh, was increasingly seen as indecisive, unable to assert his hope for the dreams and aspirations of a billion Indians. His focus authority over his own Cabinet colleagues. on development, eye for detail and efforts to bring a qualitative The Congress Party had 206 seats in the last parliament. difference in the lives of the poorest of the poor have made Nar- Although their tally was expected to fall, no one expected such a endra Modi a popular and respected leader across the length and rout. While exit polls had given the BJP a tally of between 200 and breadth of India. Narendra Modi’s life has been a journey of cour- 240 seats (out of 543), it achieved a total of 282, thus commanding age, compassion and constant hard work.” a majority on its own. The Congress Party was expected to get less The language was characteristic. Narendra Modi is not a mod- than 100 seats; in the event, it got a meagre 44. est man. All through the election campaign, he focused on what he For much of independent India’s history, the Congress Party claimed to have done in Gujarat, the western Indian state where has dominated parliament and government. The party was in he had been Chief Minister since 2001. His speeches continually power continuously between 1947 and 1977, and for a total of 24 drew attention to himself, with liberal—not to say excessive—use years since then. It was the main party in India’s struggle for inde- of Hindi or Gujarati equivalents of “I,” “Me,” “Mine,” “Myself.” pendence; for a long time afterwards, a halo of sacrifice hung He would speak in one place of how he had brought uninterrupted around its leaders. From the 1960s, however, the Congress Party began to face Ramachandra Guha’s most recent book is “Gandhi Before India” (Allen strong challenges from regional parties based on caste or lin- Lane). He lives in Bangalore guistic affiliations. Communists came to power in Kerala and PROSPECT JULY 2014 CULT OF THE GREAT LEADER 39

Left, Narendra Modi’s victory parade in New Delhi in May

that—unlike most Indian politicians—he was a man of scrupulous personal integrity. In his first term, growth rates continued to be robust. Yet the further economic reforms hoped for did not take place. His Cab- inet appointments were disappointing. Instead of pushing for people with the necessary dynamism and domain expertise, he acquiesced in the choice of ageing party loyalists for crucial posts. The western press lavished Singh with praise when he first took office. His Cambridge Tripos and his Oxford DPhil, his stints in the World Bank and in international commissions, all attracted admi- ration. Yet these positive assessments overestimated the Indian Prime Minister’s political base as well as his personal courage. He was a nominated rather than elected Member of Parliament, who owed his promotion entirely to the party President, Sonia Gan- dhi. As a lifelong civil servant, he was accustomed to taking orders from politicians in any case. Although he was now Prime Minister, Singh still acted as a servitor of the Gandhi family, acquiescing in the party’s culture of sycophancy. He deferred in policy matters to Sonia Gandhi; and made it clear that he would vacate his post if her son Rahul ever wanted to become Prime Minister. In 2010 and 2011 a wave of corruption scandals hit the UPA gov- ernment. The Prime Minister failed to act against the guilty pol- iticians. Singh was perceived to be weak and uncommunicative: deferential to Gandhi and unwilling to reach out to a wider audi- West Bengal. Then, from the 1980s, the Bharatiya Janata Party ence. He rarely gave press conferences, and, unlike previous prime emerged as a challenger at the national level. It laid down deep ministers, shied away from addressing ordinary citizens. roots in northern and western India, where it began to win state The economy had also begun to slow down, the growth rate elections. Between 1998 and 2004 it was the main party in the rul- dipping below 5 per cent. Manufacturing lagged, and so, there- ing coalition government, the National Democratic Alliance. fore, did job creation. Unemployment grew. Inflation soared. A Although individual leaders are important, India does not much-awaited goods and services tax, which would have created have a presidential system. As in the United Kingdom, it is the a unified national system, lay on the anvil. The Prime Minister, party or alliance that wins a majority of seats in parliament that an Oxford-trained economist himself, increasingly allowed Gan- forms the government. During the 1990s, the Congress Party, once dhi to dictate the economic agenda. Welfare schemes proposed accustomed to winning general elections on its own, had—like the by her were accepted, regardless of their impact on an already BJP—begun to forge alliances with smaller regional parties. In precarious fiscal deficit. Tough questions began to be asked: how 2004, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) came come the economy had stalled with an economist in charge? What to power, winning re-election five years later. use was personal honesty when Singh permitted gross corruption The Congress Party campaign in 2004 was led by Sonia Gan- among his colleagues? And why was the leader of the “world’s larg- dhi, the party’s President and the widow of former Prime Minister est democracy” so seldom seen or heard? Rajiv Gandhi. When the results came in, she declined to take office as Prime Minister, instead nominating her colleague Manmohan eanwhile, in Gujarat, Narendra Modi was watch- Singh. Both moves were widely welcomed. Renunciation is a cher- ing the delegitimisation of the central government ished value in India, while Singh was an admired public servant. with interest. He had already become a favourite of He had held all the important economic posts in India: Secre- India’s business elite. At the annual “Vibrant Guja- tary to the Ministry of Finance, Deputy Chairman of the Plan- Mrat” investors conference, tycoons such as Mukesh Ambani and ning Commission, Governor of the Reserve Bank. Between 1991 Ratan Tata had praised his ability to cut through red tape and and 1996 he served as Finance Minister, when he helped dismantle make land available for industrial projects. India’s notoriously heavy regulation of the private sector. His reforms It was not just industrialists who had begun speaking of Modi opened up the economy to foreign investment and reduced the as a future Prime Minister. So were younger cadres within the state’s powers to control (or stifle) domestic entrepreneurs. BJP, who believed the party had lost the 2009 elections because Hopes were high for Singh’s first term as Prime Minister. The they had chosen the octogenarian LK Advani as their prime min- economic reforms of the 1990s had put India on a new trajectory. isterial candidate. Next time, they had to present a younger, more Growth rates were now 6 to 8 per cent per annum. The number of dynamic alternative. people below the “poverty line” had halved (although it still stood Narendra Modi was, in political terms, entirely self-made. Born at more than 20 per cent of the population). It was hoped that into a family of small shopkeepers, he joined the Rashtriya Sway- under Singh, the momentum would be maintained, and further amsewak Sangh (RSS), an influential Hindu nationalist organisa- reforms undertaken, such as modernising labour laws and free- tion, as a teenager. Many BJP leaders started life as RSS workers, ing up sectors like retail trade, which were still closed to foreign where they imbibed its ideology of Hindutva, the belief that in its investment. The public’s trust in Singh was enhanced by the fact essence India is and must be a Hindu nation. The RSS and BJP 40 CULT OF THE GREAT LEADER PROSPECT JULY 2014

regularly accuse the Congress Party of pandering to the Muslim in India—he told crowds accustomed to one hour of electricity a minority, being soft on Islamist terrorism, and not being willing to day that, if they elected him, they would get, as in Gujarat, unin- stand up to China. terrupted power all day long. Elsewhere he spoke of how migrants After two decades working in the RSS, Modi was deputed to from other states flocked to Gujarat in search of jobs and how, if the BJP. He became one of the party’s general secretaries, and, in they elected him, they could have their own job-generating facto- 2001, was asked to take over as Chief Minister of his home state, ries in their states, too. Gujarat. Less than a year later, there was a pogrom against Mus- As Chief Minister, Modi did have some clear, identifiable lims, in which more than a thousand people died and hundreds of achievements—among them an active search for new investment, thousands were made homeless. The police looked on as Hindu some impressive infrastructure projects, and a brave attempt to do mobs torched Muslim homes and shops, and killed and brutal- away with power subsidies for rich farmers. These resulted in high ised Muslim women. The Chief Minister could not escape moral GDP growth rates. But his tenure also witnessed rising environ- responsibility for the violence. In the state election that followed, mental degradation, and, more disturbingly, falling educational Modi accused Muslims of taking many wives and having many standards, with malnutrition among children abnormally high children in order to gain demographic dominance over the Hin- for a state with this level of GDP per capita. In December 2012, dus. The sectarian rhetoric polarised the voters on religious lines, shortly after Modi was sworn in for his third full term as Chief enabling Modi to comfortably win re-election. Minister, I travelled through the northwestern parts of Gujarat. In the eyes of many Indians the 2002 pogrom remains a blot In the towns, water, sewage, road and transport facilities were in a on Modi’s reputation. However, in later years he has assiduously pathetic state; in the countryside, the scarcity of natural resources restyled himself as a “Vikash Purush”: a, or more accurately, the, was apparent, as livestock farmers walked miles in search of stub- Man of Development. ble for their goats. Early in 2013—with national elections still more than a year Both hard numbers and on-the-ground reports suggest that away—Modi began to project himself more aggressively on the in terms of economic and social development, Gujarat is better national stage. On 15th August 2013, India celebrated its 67th than average, but not among the best of India’s states. If one views Independence Day. The Prime Minister gave his customary “development” more broadly still, Gujarat’s record under Modi address to the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort in Delhi. was even less impressive. Traditional hierarchies of caste and gen- In a daring bid to outdo him, Modi gave his own Independence der are more entrenched there than in Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Day speech in the town of Bhuj in north Gujarat, with a mock Red or Tamil Nadu, three states where economic development has Fort erected on the podium. Beginning his speech immediately been accompanied by substantial social progress as well. And after the Prime Minister had finished his, Modi targeted Singh Modi’s record on freedom of expression was appalling. He banned for the failures of his government. He accused him of being soft books and films he thought Gujaratis should not read or watch. on the old enemy, Pakistan. Singh had said that while much pro- His government harassed independent-minded writers, intellec- gress had been made, there were many miles to be traversed before tuals and artists. India could consider itself unified and strong. Modi saw this as an These failures did not hinder Modi. His election campaign admission of poor performance, painting himself as the alterna- was superbly orchestrated. He hired the country’s top copywrit- tive to a corrupt and corroding regime. ers, who gave him two simple but effective lines: Ab ki baar Modi Modi had assumed increasingly important positions within the Sarkar (“This time a Modi government”—much more resonant BJP over the first half of 2013. As he rose up the party ranks, his in Hindi, where it rhymes); and Aache Din Aane Wale Hain (“The every step was opposed by party seniors, nervous of his abrasive good times are about to come”). His campaign was also extremely personality and controversial past. However, he was supported well funded. Money was raised from large corporations, and from by the younger cadres within the BJP, who were impressed by his Indians living abroad. By one estimate, the money spent by the energy and charisma. The RSS also decided to throw its consider- BJP on advertising alone was equivalent to £500m. On television, able weight behind him. In September 2013, he was officially nom- in the newspapers, and on the internet, pro-Modi advertisements inated the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. comfortably outnumbered those featuring Rahul Gandhi or the Congress Party. n 2012 and 2013, Modi had attacked Prime Minister Singh Mindful of his sectarian past, during the election campaign for his indecisiveness. Now, with the elections approach- Modi mostly stayed clear of speaking on Hindu-Muslim relations. ing, the challenger’s prime target became the leader of the There were exceptions, as in Assam, where he accused the state Congress Party, Rahul Gandhi, who he mockingly called government, run by the Congress Party, of killing endangered rhi- I“shehzada,” or prince. Modi contrasted his own lowly origins with nos merely to make way for Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh that of his rival, whose father, grandmother, and great-grandfa- (in a later speech, he added that he would have had no objection if ther had all been prime ministers. Another, and equally effective the migrants were Hindus). contrast, played upon Gandhi’s lack of administrative experience. In the election campaign, Modi came across as a far more cred- Gandhi had not joined the Cabinet, and had rarely spoken in par- ible (and willing) candidate for Prime Minister than Rahul Gan- liament. On the other hand, as Modi reminded his listeners, he dhi. Yet the Congress Party’s defects could not be attributed to a had run the government of one of India’s most important states. single leader alone. During its 10 years in government, the party Sometimes Modi attacked the opposition. At other times, he had grown arrogant and complacent. To rise in the party, flattery praised what he called the “Gujarat Model” of development, of the First Family was more important than political or adminis- promising to extend it across the country. He presented Gujarat trative talent. This “high command” culture had led to a decline in as a beacon of development, a Singapore or Shanghai that chal- inner-party democracy, which made it difficult, if not impossible, lenged the poorer parts of India to learn from and emulate it. In to nurture vigorous district and state branches (once the party’s Uttar Pradesh, for example—the largest and most backward state strength). Meanwhile, the BJP had focused on building strong 42 CULT OF THE GREAT LEADER PROSPECT JULY 2014

provincial leaders, consolidating their base in states such as Mad- hya Pradesh and Rajasthan, traditionally Congress strongholds. The Congress Party also seriously misread the mood of a large section of the voters. In power, the UPA had promoted a whole range of welfare schemes: providing food at subsidised rates, offer- ing 100 days a year of guaranteed employment (on public work schemes) to poor families, reserving 25 per cent of seats in private schools for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. The Con- gress campaign promised more such schemes. But many voters wanted jobs, not handouts. They were more attracted to Modi’s promise of economic growth, than to yet another scheme named after a member of the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty. As the campaign proceeded and the signs became clearer, the Congress Party became desperate to minimise its losses. It began stoking the fears of the minorities. Sonia Gandhi personally visited a prominent but very conservative cleric, the Imam of the Jama Masjid, to seek his support. This disgusted many Hindus, now strengthened in their resolve to vote the Congress out. Younger Muslims were also unimpressed, seeing it as cynical tokenism. The BJP’s most stunning victory was in Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state. Here, it won 71 seats out of 80, prevailing over the Congress as well as locally powerful caste-based parties. (In the 2009 elections the BJP had won a mere 10 seats in the state). The BJP fared less well in the states of West Bengal and Orissa, in the east, and of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, in the south—the winner in the first three cases being a regional party, in the fourth, the Con- gress. In these states, a majority of the population do not speak or understand Hindi, and were not so easily swayed by the seductive powers of Modi’s oratory.

he election was not won by Modi alone. Even so, there Indira Gandhi’s was the first great personality cult in Indian have been few instances in the past where a single indi- politics. Narendra Modi’s may be the second. In the run-up to the vidual has had such an impact on an Indian election. In general elections, his PR machine steadily built him up as the 1952, Jawaharlal Nehru was the Congress Party’s chief saviour of his party, and then the saviour of the nation itself. The Tcampaigner; travelling tirelessly across India (often by rail and cult of the One Great Leader has been nurtured and promoted road rather than private plane), promoting his message of com- by fawning writers and journalists, competing with one another munal harmony, gender equality and economic progress. In 1971, to be to Modi what Deva Kanta Barooah once was to Mrs Gandhi. Indira Gandhi played a comparable role, partly because the oppo- Now that Modi is in office, what kind of policies might his gov- sition parties united to oppose her, attacking her with the slogan ernment promote? His backers in the business world, as well as Indira hatao (“Indira out”). the impatient young, would like to see some big-ticket schemes: Modi’s website says that his is a “story of grit, determination infrastructure projects, for example, or aggressive promotion of and Strong Leadership in the face of grave adversity.” A little later foreign investment. The final inking in of a nationwide goods and we read, again, that “if there is one constant trait of Narendra service tax would be a progressive measure, adding significantly to Modi that has stood out it is his Strong Leadership in the face of government revenues. Improved targeting of food and fuel subsi- grave adversity.” This image of a strong and assertive leader heart- dies, away from the middle-class and towards the genuinely poor, ens his admirers, who see in him an Indian Lee Kuan Yew or Deng would also be welcome. Xiaoping. But it alarms his critics, who see in him an Indian Putin, The more difficult challenges lie in the realm of institutional an Indian Erdogan, even an Indian Hitler. reform. The criminal justice system is a shambles. Courts are over- Are there any specifically Indian parallels to Modi’s style of burdened, a vast number of judges corrupt. Public schooling is politics? Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first and longest serving Prime poor and access to decent health care is even more limited. The Minister, was not a modest man either. Yet as a keen student of police are under-trained and often brutal. Promotion in the civil history, he was wary of the adoration of the masses. Unlike Nehru, services depends more on proximity to individual politicians than his daughter Indira Gandhi had no ambivalence about being on merit. These third-rate public institutions undermine both admired. In the years 1970 to 1977 she styled herself as embody- India’s democratic credentials as well as the possibility of steady, ing the spirit of the nation. Because she had abolished the princely sustained, economic growth. order and nationalised the banks, and because she had led India What of the new government’s foreign policies? Modi is an to military victory against Pakistan, she demanded that citizens admirer of Japanese technology and Chinese infrastructure. He venerate her. And many of them did. The artist MF Hussain por- has visited both countries several times, and now plans to send trayed her as Durga, the goddess who slayed demons. Deva Kanta teams of officials to see how India can learn to do at least some Barooah, a poet of considerable distinction in his native Assamese, things the Chinese or Japanese way. The BJP, rather than Modi famously said that “India is Indira and Indira is Indira.” in particular, also advocates closer ties with the United States— PROSPECT JULY 2014 CULT OF THE GREAT LEADER 43

Left, recent violence at the Sikh Golden Temple, in Amritsar. Despite the importance of religion to Indian society, it remains a secular state

To be sure, the history of independent India has been marked by periodic bouts of rioting between Hindus and Muslims. Many Muslims remain poor, while the community is under-represented in the professional and entrepreneurial elite. Yet in a legal, and more importantly, discursive, sense, Muslims (and Christians and Buddhists and Sikhs) are as much part of the Indian nation as are Hindus. When, in 2004, India found itself with a Muslim Pres- ident, a Sikh Prime Minister and a Catholic head of the ruling party, this was seen not as an aberration, but as a natural manifes- tation of our democratic experiment. There are some 170m Muslims in India. However, of the 282 BJP members who recently won election to parliament, not one is a Muslim. A majority of the ministers (17 out of 22, according to one estimate) in the new Cabinet cut their political teeth, like Modi, in the RSS, which remains committed to the idea of a Hindu Rashtra, a state run on Hindu principles. The influence of the RSS, and the composition of the BJP’s parliamentary party itself, points to a distinct majoritarian impulse in the central govern- ment. Already, RSS activists have begun demanding that Hindu texts be made a core component of the school curriculum. The BJP was last in power between 1998 and 2004. At the time, it had to forge alliances with smaller parties to obtain a major- ity in parliament. This, and the accommodating style of the then Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, diluted the government’s “Hindu-ness.” The ruling National Democratic Alliance was con- vened not by a BJP man, but by George Fernandes of the Samata Party, a Christian and secular socialist to boot. Vajpayee’s govern- where there is a large Indian diaspora—and with Israel, which has ment had several Muslim ministers, with Fernandes himself hold- developed close ties with India’s security establishment. ing the key defence portfolio. Within India, Modi is likely to remain a polarising figure. He is It is, of course, too early to be sure, but Modi’s emphatic vic- a man of enormous intelligence and political ambition, albeit with tory may presage a steady rightward shift of the Indian pol- a vicious and vindictive streak. Although he is an economic mod- ity. It is hard to see how the Congress Party can recover. The erniser, in cultural terms he remains a prisoner of the reactionary first post-mortem the party held after the elections exoner- (not to say medievalist) mindset of the Hindu nationalists. ated the Gandhis from blame. One Congressman did criticise Some of Modi’s political opponents, as well as some prominent Rahul Gandhi—and then asked for his sister Priyanka Gan- intellectuals on the left, see him as a “fascist.” The cult of person- dhi to replace him. The Gandhi family cannot revive the Con- ality around him is certainly distasteful. In his native Gujarat dis- gress; but perhaps no one else can either. The Congress may sent was rigorously suppressed. However, now that he has moved go the way of the Whigs, a once dominant party that shrinks from his State to the central government, Modi’s authoritarian smaller and smaller. Perhaps the space it vacates may be taken, impulses may be checked by the nature of India’s political system. in the long run, by a new left-of-centre, non-denominational Back in 1975, when Indira Gandhi notoriously imposed a state of party. At the moment, the BJP has no national challenger. The emergency, the Congress Party was in power at the national level prospect of a brutal, in-your-face fascism is remote; that of a slow, and in all but one state. Now, the BJP only runs nine out of India’s creeping, majoritarianism remains. 29 States. Modi’s actions as Prime Minister will also be scruti- nised by independent journalists and commentators, and by citi- zens using social media. Nonetheless, Indians (and democrats) should not be exces- sively sanguine. The danger the country now faces is not of dom- ination by one man, but a dilution of its national identity. India stands out in the region for not being a denominational state. Although Hindus are comfortably in the majority, India is not a Hindu Republic. Its secular and plural character was assured by the foundational work of such leaders as Mahatma Gandhi and Nehru. In the Islamic Republics of Pakistan and Bangladesh, Hindus and Christians are, in a strict legal sense, second-class cit- izens, with many jobs denied to them. In Sri Lanka, Hindus and Tamil-speakers have been consistently subordinated to the will of

REUTERS/MUNISH SHARMA © REUTERS/MUNISH the Buddhist, Sinhala-speaking majority. “On the other hand, it’ll create an interesting legal precedent.” 52 PROSPECT JULY 2014 © SAKHAN PHOTOGRAPHY COLLECTION © SAKHAN PHOTOGRAPHY Why Manchester works The city is setting an example that others should follow jonathan derbyshire

ow do you make a city work? We all know that cities [more] powers to determine and activate their own London is an economic powerhouse and that funding needs for growth,” O’Neill and his fellow commission- other cities are too. Between them, eight urban ers are following an example set by the City Finance Commis- areas—Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool, sion, an inquiry established by several local authorities, including Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham and Shef- Manchester City Council. In a report published in June 2011, Hfield—generate a significant proportion of the UK’s GDP. But that commission concluded that the role played by cities, espe- these “second tier” cities could be doing even better. One of cially those other than London, in stimulating economic them, Manchester, is leading the way in showing how. growth has been seriously underestimated by policymakers. It One solution to urban underperformance often touted recommended giving cities responsibility for local growth spend- in the years since the financial crisis is improved infrastruc- ing, and proposed “devolution pilot” schemes, in which central ture—schemes like HS2, the proposed high-speed rail network government would formally recognise the ability of certain urban linking London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. local authorities to develop economic strategies tailored to their An altogether more radical answer is to set our cities free. Jim own needs. It also suggested a business rate retention scheme O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist who now chairs the that would allow cities (or “city regions”) to keep a share of the independent City Growth Commission, says: “If you look at proceeds of local growth. some of the most successful economies in the world, where These stirrings of metropolitan self-assertion build on a many cities play a critical role, they enjoy some degree of inde- large body of academic research—by economists, geographers pendence over their finances and policy choices.” Launching and theorists of urban planning—which shows that cities and the Commission in October, O’Neill declared that “great cities conurbations are, as the American policy analysts Bruce Katz such as Manchester, my home town, should surely be encour- and Jennifer Bradley put it in their recent book, The Metropolitan aged to stand on their own feet.” He should have acknowledged Revolution, “the engines of economic prosperity.” Cities bene- that Manchester has already begun to do just that. fit from “agglomeration economies,” the advantages that flow In promising to look at the “pros and cons of giving core from the physical proximity of firms, workers and consumers. The bigger and denser the city or metropolitan area, the more Jonathan Derbyshire is Managing Editor of Prospect significant the economies. PROSPECT JULY 2014 WHY MANCHESTER WORKS 53

A metropolitan area, in Katz and Bradley’s terminology, is a Manchester was the only local economy in the UK to grow at a rate collection of local authorities that form a single labour market or comparable to London in the decade before the recession “travel-to-work area.” Manchester is a good example. The city of Manchester itself sits at the heart of a city region—the term more with all the zeal of the recent convert. He has promised that if commonly used in this country—comprising 10 local authorities Labour wins next year’s general election it will “redesign the rela- that now belong to the Greater Manchester Combined Authority tionship between central and local government.” Ed Miliband, in (GMCA), which was formed in 2011, more than a quarter of a cen- his Hugo Young lecture in February, expatiated on the potential of tury after Margaret Thatcher’s government abolished the unla- Britain’s cities to “drive our future prosperity if we devolve budg- mented Greater Manchester County Council. The Manchester ets and power down.” Even Ed Balls, generally more leery than city region is the largest metropolitan area, in Katz and Bradley’s his colleagues of uttering warm words about “responsible capital- sense, outside London. Around 2.6m people live in Greater Man- ism,” got in on the act, declaring: “We will devolve economic power chester and 4.4m live within an hour’s drive of the city centre. to innovative cities and regions.” Size isn’t everything. Governance and democracy matter too. On the government side, a largely positive welcome was And the evidence appears to support O’Neill’s view that coun- given to Michael Heseltine’s 2012 report, “No Stone Unturned: tries in which decision-making (and with it spending) is devolved in Pursuit of Growth,” which described the “monopoly” to second-tier cities, as well as capitals, do better than those in exercised over growth policy by Whitehall as “dysfunctional” which power is more centralised. A recent report by the Euro- and called for cities to be allowed to “exercise their independ- pean Institute for Urban Affairs at Liverpool John Moores Uni- ence.” Eighty-one of Heseltine’s 89 recommendations were versity showed that Britain’s provincial cities lag behind their accepted in the government’s 2012 Autumn Statement, and his continental European counterparts on a number of measures. proposal for a “Single Local Growth Fund,” from which local In a league table of European cities ranked by GDP per capita, authorities would be invited to apply for money, was included London, with its panoply of significant advantages, came sec- in the Comprehensive Spending Review in June 2013 (although ond. There were only two other British cities in the top 40 (Edin- the sum allotted to it, £15bn, was considerably less than that burgh and Bristol). Even though in the decade leading up to the originally canvassed in the report). recession it was the only local economy in the UK to grow at a Heseltine also suggested that other conurbations outside Lon- rate comparable to London and the southeast, Manchester lan- don should follow Manchester in establishing combined author- guished in 82nd place. Germany, by contrast, had eight cities ities shaped by “functional economic geography” (by labour in the top 50. There, local government accounts for 35 per cent markets or travel-to-work areas, in other words), rather than of public expenditure. In the UK, the corresponding figure is by outdated administrative boundaries. In his view, Britain has around 25 per cent. suffered because administrative and economic geography have There are signs, though, of a gathering recognition among too often been uncoupled. (New combined authorities have politicians at Westminster, if not officials in Whitehall, of the since been established in West Yorkshire, Liverpool, Sheffield and potency of the sorts of argument being made by Katz, Bradley and on Tyneside.) others. The Labour MP Jon Cruddas, who is leading his party’s In addition, Heseltine said that a “second wave of devolution” policy review, speaks about devolving power to cities and regions should build on a particular feature of Manchester’s “City Deal,” 54 WHY MANCHESTER WORKS PROSPECT JULY 2014 one of a series of agreements that the government entered into in for example, to the rest of the country if cities like Manches- 2012 with eight “core cities.” The aim was, as the title of the rele- ter acquire more powers to raise taxes and keep the revenues? vant white paper put it, to “unlock growth in cities.” And to this What about areas that have weaker tax bases? Will they lose out end the government promised to “give cities the powers and tools and decentralisation and devolution lead to “postcode lotter- they need to drive economic growth” (these included investment ies” in which public services vary dramatically in quality from funds, city apprenticeship “hubs” and greater control, at city one area to another? These are questions that the new “local- level, over rail services). But there was one power that was given ists” will have to answer. Leese sits on Labour’s Local Govern- to Manchester alone: the government calls it “Earn Back,” and ment Innovation Taskforce, whose first report, published in the it’s a scheme that offers incentives to “invest in growth,” spring, appeared to dismiss anxieties about postcode lotteries principally in infrastructure, in return for a share of national as simply the “defensive” response of “those who would resist tax revenues. devolving power down.”

uch of the infrastructure spending Manchester “Richard Leese thinks has already made has gone on transport, particu- the city deals are a good larly on the Metrolink light rail system, which now serves all points of the compass, from Ashton- start, but he’d like central Munder-Lyne in the east to Eccles in the west, and from Bury and Rochdale in the north to Altrincham and East Didsbury in government to go further” the south. You can now travel, without changing trams, from the Etihad Campus in east Manchester, where Manchester Richard Leese, who has been the leader of Manchester City City Football Club is building an enormous new training facil- Council since 1996 (he now presides over a virtual one-party ity and reviving a previously neglected inner suburb in the state, with Labour controlling 95 of the 96 council seats), sees process, to MediaCityUK in Salford, the broadcasting com- “Earn Back” as a reward for stable governance. “It was only plex built next to what used to be Manchester docks where the possible because we had a combined authority that was able to BBC transferred 26 departments in 2011. ITV has also moved invest collectively and reap the rewards collectively,” he says. large chunks of its operation there, including CITV and The This is a view shared by Iain Deas, senior lecturer in urban and Jeremy Kyle Show, abandoning the old Granada studios in regional policy and planning at the University of Manchester, who Manchester city centre. That site has been acquired by the is otherwise rather sceptical of the relentless boosterism of developer Allied London, one of several large national players the city fathers. “There’s been great stability both politically to have moved into Manchester’s commercial property market and at officer level within Manchester City Council,” Deas over the past decade. Another is Argent, which is responsible for tells me. One St Peter’s Square, an imposing office building that squats Leese thinks the city deals are “a good start,” but naturally he’d on a prominent corner opposite the newly refurbished Cen- like central government to go much further. “They are a reversal tral Library. The first tenants will be KPMG, the professional of decades of centralisation,” he says. “[But] I think we need a lot services firm. more. Michael Heseltine had an enormous number of very posi- A friend who works as a project manager for one of Manches- tive things to say about how economic powers should be devolved. ter’s biggest developers recently took me on a tour of several con- The current government’s rather timid approach to the imple- struction sites lying to the south of the city centre. We peered mentation of [the Heseltine report] really does need a lot more through the fence at what used to be the BBC’s northern head- beef to it.” quarters on Oxford Road, the future of which remains uncer- Leese is less enthusiastic, however, about Heseltine’s proposals tain after the council rejected the first scheme proposed for it. We for devolving powers and responsibilities to the Local Enterprise tiptoed through what will eventually become a high-end hotel Partnerships (LEPs), which replaced the Regional Develop- overlooking the Mancunian Way and kicked rubble on the ground ment Agencies (RDAs) created by the last Labour government. broken for yet more student accommodation (106,000 peo- The RDAs failed Heseltine’s economic geography test—too often ple study at five institutions of higher education in the Greater they were set up in a way that didn’t bear any relation to patterns Manchester region). of economic activity. But, says Leese, “there are always con- Mike Emmerich, Chief Executive of New Economy, the eco- cerns about the lack of accountability with LEPs. That doesn’t nomic strategy arm of the GMCA, says all this frantic activ- apply in Manchester, where the Local Enterprise Partnership is ity is the tribute that investors and developers are paying to appointed by the Combined Authority.” Manchester’s unusually settled political leadership. “You should This is an important point: it’s not clear that LEPs on their talk to Howard,” he tells me. He means Howard Bernstein, an own, without the right level of accountability, will deliver the officer of Manchester City Council for all his working life and, dramatic economic benefits Heseltine seems to think they will. since 1998, the council’s Chief Executive. “In the early 1980s, a Manchester is a special case in which the enterprise partnership policy officer started writing a plan which became the 1984 City has been grafted onto existing, city region-wide administrative and Centre Local Plan,” Emmerich says. “This plan said we’re going to political structures. If, as Iain Deas suggests, Manchester is “atyp- rebuild the commercial office stock, repopulate the city and bring ical” when compared to other second-tier cities in England, it is back public transport on a mass basis. That young policy officer is partly because of its relatively highly evolved administrative and now Sir Howard Bernstein.” political ecology. In modern Manchester’s creation myth, the rebuilding, which There are other risks with the Heseltine model of fiscal and Bernstein oversaw, of a large swathe of the city centre destroyed by economic devolution that Leese doesn’t address. What happens, a massive IRA bomb in June 1996 is treated as the pivotal moment PROSPECT JULY 2014 WHY MANCHESTER WORKS 55 © MMU Richard Leese and Howard Bernstein (right and far right) launch the construction of Manchester Metropolitan University’s new campus in the city’s recent history. Bernstein prefers to tell a longer, insti- exercising of their functions. And they should collaborate on eco- tutional story that goes back to the abolition of Greater Manches- nomic strategy where they share a labour market or travel-to-work ter County Council (GMC) in 1986. “The GMC never worked,” he area. In the conurbations outside London, he concluded, “it would says. “It created a two-tier structure of governance in Manches- make sense to follow the lead set by Manchester.” ter. It never created an integrated approach to economic growth In March, Bruce Katz was invited to speak at Manchester’s in Greater Manchester. What the abolition of the GMC gave local stand at MIPIM, the international property developers’ con- authorities was the capacity to work together as unitary, single ference that takes place every year in Cannes in the south of authorities in order to move Greater Manchester along. It’s been a France. He delivered a rousing battle cry from the frontline of the long, complicated journey.” “metropolitan revolution” in the US to an audience that included That journey began after the demise of the GMC, with the Bernstein, Leese and Emmerich: “Let’s get very clear… about creation of the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities what [the] higher levels of government actually do—and then do (AGMA), a voluntary organisation to which the 10 constitu- everything ourselves.” It’s understandable that the spectacle of ent councils in the old structure signed up. There were grow- partisan gridlock in Washington DC should lead an American like ing pains, inevitably, and some injury to local pride along the Katz to overstate his case. But Manchester is certainly receptive way. Authorities in places like Bury or Wigan, with distinctive to the spirit of his message, if not the letter. Other cities are now identities of their own, sometimes resented the imperial designs following suit. that the City of Manchester appeared to have on its neigh- bours. Indeed, as recently as 2002, one academic study of local government in Manchester emphasised “the continuing potency of intra-metropolitan rivalries.” Nevertheless, a lattice of non- statutory bodies grew up around AGMA working at the level of the city region rather than where local government boundaries happened to have been drawn. In Leese’s view, the scale at which the new bodies operated was crucial. “What Manchester was the first to do,” he says, “was to recognise the importance of scale and of operating as far as possi- ble within the boundaries of the functional economic area. And it’s now over a decade since we had the first Greater Manchester strat- egy—the 10 local authorities joined up to agree a joint economic strategy and joint action to deliver it.” Manchester was reversing a trend identified by Heseltine in his report. He observed that over several decades local authorities had come to focus on social provision at the expense of economic strategy and development. And this, he thought, was one of the reasons our cities, in particular, weren’t doing as they well as might. Heseltine recommended that local authorities have a legal duty to take economic development into account in the normal “I don’t know how much they’re worth but this is how much they cost” What if football had different rules? p20 ISSUE 220 | JULY 2014JULY 220 | ISSUE

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk JULY 2014 | £4.95 Israel—drifting towards disaster? BRONWEN MADDOX

ISRAEL—DRIFTING TOWARDSISRAEL—DRIFTING DISASTER? Plus Ed Miliband’s real problem PETER KELLNER How Germany remembers WW1 HEW STRACHAN The man who saved the world STEPHANIE FLANDERS Surviving teleportation JIM HOLT Why you should move to Manchester JONATHAN DERBYSHIRE

Also Rebecca Front, Christine Ockrent, Sebastian Smee, AC Grayling, Ramachandra Guha, Jonathan Portes

C 2 PROSPECT JULY 2014 The next Crimea? Belarus’s dictator benefits from instability in Ukraine martin fletcher

n the face of it, the revolution in Ukraine might Second World War, and no country on earth suffered as badly as easily have spilled over into Belarus. The two coun- Belarus. The Nazis killed more than two million Belarusians—a tries share a 600-mile border and their capitals are quarter of the population. By the time the Red Army liberated barely 300 miles apart. Both are former members Minsk in 1944 the capital had been reduced to rubble. of the USSR—buffer states caught between the For most Belarusians the decades of Soviet rule that followed Odemocracies of the European Union to the west and authoritar- came as a blessed relief. Stalin named Minsk a “hero city” ian Russia to the east. Both were governed by repressive Mos- and used German prisoners to rebuild it in grand style. He cow-backed regimes until Viktor Yanukovych’s government fell turned Belarus into an industrial powerhouse and a relatively in February, prompting Russia’s annexation of Crimea. prosperous state. The Chernobyl nuclear disaster contaminated In the event, nothing of the sort has happened. Some Bela- a fifth of the country and millions of its inhabitants, but rusian opposition activists went to Kiev to support the protests, Belarusians did not rejoice when the Soviet Union collapsed in though many others were turned back by Belarusian police and 1991. They did not yearn for independence from Moscow. It was border guards. A couple of thousand staged a demonstration forced upon them. The security of the Soviet era was replaced of solidarity with Ukraine in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, on by social and economic chaos, which is how Lukashenko won 25th March. A few Belarusians have launched their own private the only free and fair election ever held in Belarus in 1994. He boycott of Russian beer, and laid flowers by a statue in Minsk promised to end the corruption and cowboy capitalism. He of Taras Shevchenko, a Ukrainian nationalist poet, but that is promised a return to old certainties, and the restoration of close about all. economic ties with Moscow. Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian President, is instead In the two decades since that watershed moment Lukashenko preparing to celebrate two decades in power on 20th July, with has used decrees, diktats and rigged referendums systematically his position as “Europe’s last dictator” seemingly as secure as to emasculate all potential centres of resistance: the judiciary ever. He remains the absolute and apparently unmovable ruler and security services; a parliament to which no opposition of a state of 9.5m people, a last remnant of the Soviet Union deputy has been elected since 2000; the media, apart from replete with its own KGB, show trials, political prisoners, penal one or two token independent newspapers that are routinely colonies, collective farms, command economy and formidable harassed and have tiny circulations; NGOs, which have propaganda machine. been replaced by Orwellian creations dubbed GONGOs “There will be no ‘Maidan’ (Ukrainian-style uprising) in (government-organised non-governmental organisations); and Minsk. There’s no place for a ‘Maidan’ here,” Lukashenko the Roman Catholic church, which Lukashenko co-opted by declared recently. Just to be sure, he has ordered his puppet par- allowing it to sell alcohol. liament to approve legislation making it easier to declare martial Not surprisingly, Lukashenko romped to victory in the law and shoot protestors in the event of “mass disorders.” presidential elections of 2001, 2006 and 2010 with—he would In reality Lukashenko’s Belarus is very different from have the world believe—75, 83 and 79 per cent of the vote Yanukovych’s Ukraine. It has a much more formidable respectively. On the freezing December night of the 2010 intelligence and security apparatus. Its parliament, judiciary, vote 40,000 Belarusians rallied in central Minsk to protest at media and other civic institutions were neutered long ago. It his blatantly fraudulent re-election, and were attcked by riot has no split between a pro-European west and pro-Russian police. Hundreds of men and women were beaten and arrested. east, no oligarchs to support the opposition and no strong sense Lukashenko’s presidential rivals were seized, imprisoned and of national identity—70 per cent of Belarusians are Russian tortured. Today a few toothless opposition parties are permitted -speaking. The state provides better services and higher purely for the sake of appearances, and for much the same incomes, and is less overtly corrupt. Belarus also has a deeply reason an Orwellian law forbids them from boycotting elections. traumatic history that has filled ordinary citizens with a horror This totalitarianism is not immediately apparent to the of upheaval and a craving for stability that has rendered them first-time visitor to Minsk, though if you arrive by train from more passive by far than their Slavic cousins in Ukraine. Warsaw you experience a curious ceremony at the border when For centuries the great plain in the geographical heart of every carriage is jacked up and fitted with wider wheels for the Europe that comprised “White Rus”—modern-day Belarus—was Soviet-gauge tracks of Belarus. overrun from east and west. It has been fought over by Poles, The capital is attractive to look at provided you ignore Russians, Lithuanians, Hitler and the Soviet Union. Belarus the vast, monolithic Brezhnev-era apartment blocks in the enjoyed a few months of independence after the First World War, suburbs. The city centre is a pristine example of classical Soviet but was swiftly subsumed into the new USSR. Then came the architecture, with wedding cake buildings, huge squares and broad boulevards. Long-limbed Slavic beauties promenade Martin Fletcher is a foreign reporter and former Associate Editor of The Times through pleasant parks and along the river walks. The traffic PROSPECT JULY 2014 THE NEXT CRIMEA? 3

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is seen on a screen as he delivers a speech during celebrations marking Independence Day in Minsk, 3rd July 2012.

is light, the metro is clean and efficient, and there is scarcely a scrap of litter or hint of graffiti anywhere. The accoutrements of capitalism are everywhere: fancy restaurants and coffee bars, night clubs and casinos, Hugo Boss and Adidas stores, Porsche and Harley-Davidson dealerships, and more Mercedes than Ladas. Only gradually do you spot the signs and symbols of Soviet communism that have been swept away in most other parts of the former Soviet Union. A McDonald’s flourishes on Lenin Street. The British embassy resides on Karl Marx Street. Young Pioneers goose-step in front of the towering war memorial in Victory Square. A larger-than-life statue of Vladimir Lenin has pride of place outside the parliament building on Independ- ence Square, his chest thrust forward and coat tails billowing out behind him. A bust of Felix Dzerzhinsky, founder of Lenin’s secret police, stands opposite a huge columned edifice in the heart of the city which is the KGB’s headquarters and houses the infamous Amerikanka prison for political detainees. No attempt is made to conceal the building’s purpose. It is even floodlit at night. Another prison, this one ringed by high walls, stands barely a mile away. Sizo No 1 is where prisoners are executed. Belarus is the last country on the continent of Europe to retain the death penalty, and carries it out in a particularly inhumane manner. Prisoners are given no notice of their impending executions, so they live in constant fear. On the appointed day they are taken from their cells, forced to their knees and shot in the back of their heads. They are then buried in secret locations so their families have no graves to visit. The 13 members of the execution squad receive a bonus every time they carry out a sentence. Each 3rd July Minsk celebrates Independence Day with a huge military parade reminiscent of those staged for the Soviet gerontocracy in Moscow’s Red Square at the height of the Cold War. Thousands of hatchet-faced soldiers march past Lukashenko’s reviewing stand in inch-perfect squares, trailed by columns of tanks, artillery and missile launchers. Warplanes, helicopters and giant Ilyushin transport planes roar overhead. Other abnormalities slowly become apparent. Minskovites tend not to catch your eye, or laugh, or congregate in public places—planned public gatherings of more than three people are banned without prior approval. There are laws against jaywalking, swearing, drinking on the streets, walking on the grass, taking photographs of public buildings, and even using non-Belarusian models on billboards. Clapping, a form of protest adopted by the opposition in 2011, is forbidden. So, in another Orwellian twist, is any unsanctioned “action or lack of action” in public places. Any form of non-conformity is suspect. Minsk has not one openly gay bar, and in 2012 the city’s tiny gay community was forced to hold its Gay Pride march on a rented tram. “It’s better to be a dictator than gay,” Lukashenko once declared. “Homosexuality is not illegal. But it’s not legal either,” a rare gay activist observed. You see hardly any black faces, street art- ists, down-and-outs, or mentally or physically disabled people— just occasional drunks being bundled into a police van. It seems almost as if any conduct not expressly approved is prohibited,

© REUTERS/VASILY FEDOSENKO © REUTERS/VASILY not the other way round. Certainly most Belarusians regard 4 THE NEXT CRIMEA? PROSPECT JULY 2014 © REUTERS/ALEXEI NIKOLSKIY/RIA NOVOSTI NIKOLSKIY/RIA © REUTERS/ALEXEI

Lukashenko, left, and Vladimir Putin at an ice hockey match in Sochi lives in a small village far from Minsk). Kolya accompanies his in January. Right, Lukashenko discusses a manufacturing report father everywhere—to official meetings, on state visits abroad, to the Winter Olympics in Sochi and, in 2009, to meet Pope uniforms as a source of menace, not of protection. Benedict XVI in the Vatican where, according to Lukashenko, Political non-conformity is the most serious offence. his son moved the elderly pontiff to tears. Kolya has also started Lukashenko’s most prominent opponents almost invariably appearing in his father’s ice hockey team, wearing the same end up imprisoned, exiled, disappeared or dead. An irrepressible number: 1. young dissident named Pavel Vinogradov is lucky not to be one But the Belarusian leader is easily underestimated. He has of them. He was arrested in 2012 for placing 15 teddy bears survived while numerous dictators and authoritarian regimes bearing pro-democracy messages in Independence Square. A around the world have fallen. He has survived as the European Swedish advertising agency heard of the stunt, hired a plane, Union and Nato have advanced through Poland, Lithuania and and dropped hundreds more teddies on Minsk. Lukashenko Latvia to the very borders of his small, landlocked state. was so furious that he fired two top generals for their failure to He has survived through ruthlessness, animal cunning and protect Belarus’s air space. a keen understanding of the national psyche. Lukashenko It is tempting to mock Lukashenko—though insulting the has offered a tacit deal to a country whose traumatic past is President is a criminal offence. He is the bastard son of a peasant engraved on its collective memory: social and economic security, woman and the former head of a collective pig farm—people joke including free education and health care, in lieu of human and that he learned to run Belarus there. He has a coarse tongue, political rights. It is a deal that most Belarusians seem content huge hands and a faintly ridiculous moustache, and, to conceal to accept. “They’ve always been quiet, undemonstrative and his comb-over, state television may not film him from behind. obedient,” one western official lamented. And if life becomes He calls himself Batka (“Father”). He refers to himself in too oppressive they either drink copious amounts of vodka, or the third person. He claims to be a man of the people, but lives they escape to their dachas and vegetable patches in a country on a private estate in an affluent suburb of Minsk from which of forests, lakes and pristine rivers. Or both. he ejected all foreign ambassadors in 1998 by cutting off their Lukashenko enforces that deal by giving one-year contracts water and electricity supplies. Most Belarusians glimpse only to the 80 per cent of the workforce that is employed by the state his motorcade speeding through the cordoned-off streets of so they can be swiftly dismissed for disloyalty (prostitution is the capital. one of the few obvious private enterprises in Minsk). He finances He is a self-styled scourge of corruption who has been it by obtaining large quantities of subsidised oil and gas from described by the US State Department as “among the most Russia and reselling it to the outside world at a hefty profit. He corrupt leaders in the world.” He has residences scattered bolsters it by using the state-controlled media to peddle endless around the country, a Boeing 767 once owned by Turkmenistan’s propaganda portraying himself as the sole guarantor of his former dictator Saparmurat Niyazov, a Maybach limousine country’s peace and tranquillity. and a Patek Philippe Calatrava watch worth several times his The horrors of the Second World War are still constantly official salary. evoked through television films, memorials in every town and He is obsessed by ice hockey. He has constructed 26 indoor ice school trips to the impressive and moving national memorial hockey arenas around the country, and has his own presidential complex at Katyn, the site of a village in a forest north of Minsk team whose games are always televised and which hardly ever whose 150-odd inhabitants were burned alive in a barn by the loses. He is also obsessed by Kolya, 10, the youngest of his Nazis. Meanwhile, Kurapaty, a site on the edge of Minsk three sons and the product of an affair with Irina Abelskaya, where 300,000 of Stalin’s victims are buried in mass graves, is his personal doctor (Lukashenko’s estranged first wife now neglected and forlorn. PROSPECT JULY 2014 THE NEXT CRIMEA? 5

Nor is the EU likely to make any serious attempt to force Baltic 100 miles Sea LATVIA Lukashenko from office. The Belarusian leader may be a dic- Riga tator, but he is not on a par with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, RUSSIA Syria’s Bashar al-Assad or Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe. He elim- inates opponents, but not on an industrial scale. He suppresses civil liberties, but not absolutely—Belarusians are free to travel, LITHUANIA BELARUS for example, and have largely unrestricted access to the internet. Opposition activists feel betrayed by the EU, but it has much more Vilnius Khatyn Kurapaty pressing priorities and no desire right now to make its relations Minsk with Russia even worse. As one European official candidly admit- ted: “Belarus is a nasty smell in the corner we all have to ignore.”

POLAND hether, or how, the revolution in Ukraine will affect Lukashenko depends on its outcome. But, in the short term at least, it looks more likely to Chernobyl strengthen than weaken him. Kiev WThe emergence of a genuinely democratic, western-orientated government in Kiev would, on paper at least, leave Bela- UKRAINE rus surrounded on three sides by free countries and provide a measure of inspiration to its opposition. “The Maidan is an example of our common fight for freedom and democracy in When not reporting Lukashenko’s speeches verbatim, the the European region of the former USSR,” Andrei Sannikov, state media portrays the country’s opposition as fifth columnists a former diplomat and exiled opposition leader, said. “Ukrain- in the pay of sinister external forces, and the outside world as a ians are real heroes in this fight in the eyes of Belarusians. We place wracked by conflict, revolution and general turmoil. By admire them and weep for the innocent victims along with contrast, Lukashenko boasts, Belarus is a “cosy home where them.” Moreover Putin’s annexation of Crimea on the pretext peace and harmony reign.” of protecting its ethnic Russians has triggered serious economic That is how the state media has reported the revolution in repercussions that could yet undermine Moscow’s ability to sub- Ukraine. It has focused on the violence and disorder, largely sidise Belarus. However, there is scant chance of Russia ever hav- ignoring the politics while accepting Russia’s annexation of ing to intervene militarily to keep in Belarus within its sphere of Crimea as unfortunate but inevitable. “It’s saying ‘look at the influence, though Putin could seek to exert much tighter eco- chaos. Look what happens if you have massive protests. Look at nomic and political control over its puny neighbour. the anarchy and how the standard of living completely deterio- Conversely, prolonged turmoil and the fracturing of Ukraine rates’,” Yarik Kryvoi, Editor-in-Chief of the independent, Lon- would fuel Belarusians’ deep fear of instability. Ukraine’s escape don-based Belarus Digest, said. from Moscow’s sphere of influence would leave Belarus as As things stand, Lukashenko could remain in power for many Russia’s sole buffer against Nato and the EU and undoubtedly years yet. He will only be 60 this year, and is physically robust. He boost Putin’s resolve to keep Lukashenko in office. enjoyed a big boost to his legitimacy by hosting the World In short, Belarus is likely to remain Europe’s dirty little secret Ice Hockey Championships in May—to ensure their success for the foreseeable future. The status quo will endure because, he decreed that there should be no empty seats. Since to most Belarusians, it is bad but not insufferable. They like to the crackdown that followed the 2010 presidential election tell a joke about their stoicism. The Nazis hang three partisans the opposition has been divided and demoralised. in the forest—a Russian, a Pole and a Belarusian. Days later they Lukashenko is widely disliked, hated even, but not enough for cut the bodies down and find the Belarusian still alive. “How did the mass of the people to rise against him. In a poll carried out you survive?” they asked. “I got used to it,” he croaked. last year by the Independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies, a Belrusian think tank, 46 per cent said they preferred well-being to freedom, while only 38 per cent valued freedom more. In another, 54 per cent said they sometimes or always needed a firm hand to rule them, while only 38 per cent thought it dangerous to concentrate all power in one man. Economically, Belarus is struggling. It finds it hard to sell its outdated tractors and trucks to former Soviet countries. By all accounts Vladimir Putin loathes Lukashenko, who has repeatedly played Russia off against the EU and frustrated Russian attempts to gain outright control of Belarus’s state gas company, pipelines and refineries. The Russian President could easily engineer Lukashenko’s downfall by stopping his country’s sales of subsidised oil and gas to Belarus, but it is unlikely that he would ever do so lest Lukashenko be replaced by a pro-western liberal. As one western source noted, the Belarusian leader may be a maverick but “he’s Russia’s maverick.” “Thanks heavens we all had mobile phones...” PROSPECT JULY 2014 BANKING 61 Special report The future of banking

July 2014 A bank branch in your pocket

device, Homelink allowed customers to send But the long period of inertia may be transfers and pay bills, services at the heart coming to an end. We may be heading into a of digital banking today. period of sustained change for digital bank- What is the future Despite the subsequent launch of the first ing. What has changed? of banking in the online banking websites in the mid-1990s and The instant availability of information incremental improvements thereafter, not a on the web over high-speed connections, the digital age? asks lot changed for online banking customers in massive adoption of social networks, and the Sean Mahdi the intervening period. Banks continued to parallel rise of smartphones and the mobile provide, to a greater or lesser degree and with internet, has changed how we interact with varying levels of usability, the same types of content, institutions and one another. ntil relatively recently, the inven- online banking services to customers—view- Our behaviour as consumers is different tors of Homelink, the UK’s first ing account balances, statements and trans- as a result: we’re better informed, with high home banking service in 1983, actions, and making payments or transfers expectations of the digital services we receive; would have felt very much at between accounts. Some banks allowed their we’re faced with a vast array of choices, and home with modern digital bank- customers to apply for and even open a sav- we look to our peers to help decide which Uing. While relying on a television set and a ings account online, but significant change to choose; above all, social media has given home phone, instead of a website or a mobile was largely absent. us all a voice that can be amplified many © KUMAR SRISKANDAN / ALAMY SRISKANDAN © KUMAR “The convenience of using mobile banking on tablets and smartphones means that customers tend to access their bank far more frequently” 62 BANKING PROSPECT JULY 2014 times, if we hit the right chord with our fel- to the nearest branch or ATM, or integrat- budgeting and spending with others in their low consumers. ing email. More interesting innovations like neighbourhood. Away from the consumer, the wide availa- cheque deposit via your mobile have taken off In the world of wealth management, start bility of low cost cloud computing has helped in the US, where cheques are still an impor- ups are also taking advantage of similar goal- drive a new golden age for start-ups, who tant payment mechanism. While extensive setting, planning and tracking tools to help haven’t had to worry about investing the capi- use of debit cards in the UK has acted as a customers visualise their investment options, tal and skills needed to establish expensive IT dampener on the appeal of this idea locally, their appetite for risk, and to track progress infrastructure, allowing them to get to mar- earlier this year a major bank announced towards their goals. In future, depending on ket more quickly and cheaply. Crowd-funding plans to launch its own pilot service. the support of the regulator, we could see platforms made possible by the internet have The more innovative side of mobile bank- such tools being combined with digital “rec- released floods of investment to start-ups ing is proving to be mobile payments and ommendation engines,” to provide personal on generous terms, supporting innovation. wallets. Banks, online payment providers, guidance to individual customers on the best Behind the scenes, vast databases and credit scheme operators and others have way to achieve their investment goals. complicated analytical tools try to make established services that allow users to treat Beneath the new digital services of all the sense of the huge amounts of data being their phone as a digital wallet to store cash, leading banking providers lies an obsession generated by all this digital activity, seeking debit and credit cards. Lack of point of sale with a simple phrase: “the user experience.” insights to drive commercial advantage. infrastructure, competing offerings and con- These organisations have realised that unless Just as these changes became embedded cerns about security have all contributed to a service is simple and easy to use, and works in our lives, the next wave of innovations— a slower than anticipated take up so far, but first time, customers won’t use it. smart wearable devices, sensor technology in we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of wide- Sean Mahdi is Digital Retail Banking Director of everyday objects, and the availability of low spread adoption in the near future. PwC cost 3D printing—has arrived to stir things up Mobile technology has also allowed the again. The net effect in many industries has development of digital person-to-person been to change the basis of competition, low- payments, a transfer between individu- ering barriers to entry and shifting power to als using just a phone number. Within two The end of consumers. As famous names in technology, years of launch, one UK bank claims to have entertainment and the entire music indus- secured 2.5m regular users. The government- try have discovered, you ignore these trends sponsored Paym service now extends person- cash at your peril. As well as destroying business to-person payments to individuals and busi- models, digital innovation has given rise to nesses across different banks. new ones that could not otherwise exist, such The idea of consumers transacting Bank branches won’t as that of smart home innovators. directly with one another, without a bank as be around for much In banking, change has been supported intermediary, extends to person-to-person longer, says and accelerated by the active participation lending, part of the burgeoning alterna- of regulatory bodies; in September 2013, leg- tive lending market, a sector in which the Merryn Somerset Webb islation came into force in the UK, designed UK has been a pioneer. The platform facili- to make the process of account switching tates exchange between savers with money to I went into an actual branch of Lloyds bank quicker, simpler and risk-free, increasing lend, and borrowers, at what would be gener- last week. It was the first time I had been the rate of switching by a factor of five. The ous rates for savers and competitive lending into a bank branch in a good five years. It earlier Retail Distribution Review increased rates. Last year, the leading provider in the was huge, comfortable, welcoming and investor transparency by banning commis- UK extended this service to small businesses, almost completely empty. This came as no sions and forcing investment companies to with noted success. particular surprise: I never go to the bank charge explicitly for advice. Another area of digital banking innova- anymore. If anyone owes me money, be they Despite the significant capital and regu- tion is that of personal financial manage- friend or employer, I expect them to pay latory barriers to entry in the industry, which ment tools, which allow customers to set online directly into my bank account. Going provide strong protection to banks, the net goals, budgets, plan and track their spend- to the bank with a cheque is so little a part effect of this technological, cultural and ing. The latest incarnations of these tools dif- of my routine that, the last time I had one, it regulatory change has been renewed inter- fer from their forebears by making it really took me so long to cash it they called to ask est in innovation by banks, with digital pro- easy for customers to set up and maintain, if I needed it reissuing. grammes attracting a considerable portion importing and categorising data automati- And think about how often you pay for of the investment that has followed. cally and providing highly visual represen- things in cash these days. Almost never. I One of the most notable recent digital tations of current and projected financial use my card for everything, small payments banking advances has been the provision of performance. When combined with real- included, and make transfers—to HMRC, to mobile banking services. While in its basic time notifications, reminders and alerts, my sisters, to the builders—online. If I were form mobile banking simply provides the these tools start to become a powerful way to a tiny bit younger I’d probably have down- same services as a banking website, research help customers better manage their money. loaded a money transfer app by now and, if I indicates that the convenience of having a This has also proved to be an area of sig- were a Barclays customer, I’d sign up for one bank in your pocket means that mobile bank- nificant start-up innovation, with a num- of their new bPay bands. You pop it on your ing customers tend to access their bank far ber of financial aggregators offering services wrist and then wave it at any one of 300,000 more frequently than the equivalent web that relegate banks to the role of transac- scanners across the UK to make your pay- banking service. tion provider. One such start-up in the US ments. Cash now accounts only for around Smartphones also have clever features introduced the idea of a “safe spending half of all transactions in the UK—and that’s like location and motion sensors, built-in limit” that assesses upcoming bills and pay- falling fast. We’ve passed the tipping point. cameras, touch screens and always-on data ments to determine how much discretionary If you don’t pay for things in cash and you connections. Some banks have taken advan- spend you really have left this month. Others don’t get paid in cash or cheques, why would tage of these to expand their mobile offering, have introduced social elements to their ser- you need a bank branch? I spoke to a church doing simple things like providing directions vice, inviting the customer to compare their warden recently who was worried about how PROSPECT JULY 2014 BANKING 63 he was going to deposit his congregations’ There is less and less need to process cash collection when the last branch in the area and cheques physically. had gone. I told him not to worry: by the time The digital However, the customer-facing, front-end the last branch has gone they’ll be simply be part of what banks offer is only one part of waving their phones at his collection plate on a larger technological structure, much of their way out. Job done. race which is hidden from customer view. Banks There is a view that customers won’t allow also have a huge technological requirement this shift to happen; that we all need face-to- If banks don’t in their own internal systems. This “nuts face contact when it comes to money. This is and bolts” element—the back-end of the nonsense. One need only look at First Direct. innovate, others will IT system—is going to be the single biggest It may be owned by HSBC, which allows you step in to fill the gap, challenge for the banks over the course of to drop off your cheques (should you have says James Barty the next five to 10 years. any) at their branches, but it is clearly an The use of new digital apps is increas- online-only bank and does a perfectly good ing the pressure on those back-end systems. job of selling a variety of products to happy Banks are doing a good job of keeping up Banks must ensure that their main IT sys- customers with no personal contact required. with advances in new technology at the tems are upgraded and able to cope. This It is regularly voted Britain’s favourite bank. moment, with digital apps, faster payments, should also enable banks to serve their cus- Then there is Hargreaves Lansdown, the contactless debit cards and payments over tomers better by enabling them to under- online stockbroker and fund manager. It isn’t mobile phones. But the speed with which stand their overall relationship with the a bank, but it has been the supreme disrupter new technology is being developed means bank and the best way they can run their of the financial services market over the last that banks will have to make substantial finances. Banks know they must rise to 10 years. With £45bn of our money under its investments if they are to maintain this. this because, if they do not, other organi- management, Hargreaves has proved defini- The main incentive for banks to develop sations might step in and out-compete the tively that, if the brand is really trusted, peo- a new digital offering is the desire to deliver banks, offering quicker, more efficient -dig ple don’t need human interaction to feel banking in a smarter way to meet the grow- ital services. confident that their money is safe. ing expectations of their customers. Huge I suspect that most chief digital officers These newish entrants are set up to be numbers of people now have smartphones and chief information officers at banks are online and telephone-only businesses. That filled with apps to help them manage their looking at the development of their digital means they have fantastic websites (fast, well lives. They demand banking services in the offer and saying that this is going to require designed, easy to use) and if you telephone same way as they might demand any other faster and more substantial overhaul of them they have someone who knows what service. Digital banking apps have proved their IT systems than perhaps was thought they are talking about answer the phone very popular and the take-up has been sub- even 18 months ago. politely. Tesco Bank, which launched its first stantial. People now access their banking And this will not come cheap. There is current account in June, has the same feel. app 20 to 30 times a month, but visit their a very real question for the banks of prior- You can deposit money at branches if you branch less than once a month—the banks itisation—they are being asked to do lots must but you can’t exactly stop into Tesco have been genuinely surprised at how fast of things at the same time. The regulators Metro to talk mortgages: this is an online and that has taken off. RBS says its busiest want them to build up more capital, and telephone bank, as its current account slogan branch is its mobile app at peak commut- there is pressure for them to lend more. So (“click, tap, chat”) makes clear. That doesn’t ing time in the morning as people log into can banks also invest more in their IT sys- seem to be deterring customers: it has seven their accounts. tems? There is going to have to be some hon- million of them. For the banks the key is to continue to est discussion between the regulators and The number of physical bank branches innovate and implement change because, the banks about how quickly they can pro- has fallen by 40 per cent in 25 years, and it if they don’t, others will potentially do it in gress on these fronts at the same time. will keep falling. That doesn’t mean there will their place. We are already seeing the first James Barty is Strategy Director at the British be no branches; you can expect the banks to internet-only banks being set up in the UK, Bankers’ Association have a flagship branch or two knocking which represent a challenge to traditional around. They are good for branding; good lenders. There is also a real possibility that for introducing new or complicated products; other organisations will come in and cherry useful for keeping the technology refuseniks pick some of the banks’ business: Google happy; and, for now at least, necessary to Wallet and Paypal offer the ability to make serve the needs of the decreasing number of payments across their software, and Face- businesses that still take a lot of cash. book plans to introduce this. You might also see a trend for the big To meet this sort of challenge, banks are retail banks warding off criticism by having developing more sophisticated technolog- mini-fleets of mobile banks making high pro- ical products for customers—as described file trips to a few villages in Northumberland, above by Sean Mahdi and Merryn Somerset or perhaps committing to keep a sparse net- Webb—such as Paym, the mobile phone- work of branches in market towns. But don’t based payment system, and cheque imag- expect this kind of service ever again to be ing, where cheques are paid into your even vaguely comprehensive. Most people account by scanning them with your phone. don’t want it to be—a recent survey showed As each innovation is introduced this is cre- that only one in eight of those surveyed would ating one of the most advanced payments want the nation’s challenger banks opening systems in the world. branches. And technology means they just Another big incentive for banks to press don’t need to. on with developing their digital services is Merryn Somerset Webb is Editor-in-Chief of that they are much cheaper to run than the “Before I can advise you, I’ll need you to have MoneyWeek traditional paper-based style of banking. some money” 64 PROSPECT JULY 2014 Science

Seeing without light Frank Close explains how a new experiment could help us discover the secrets of the Big Bang

As you read this, 10m neutrinos are passing lucky and capture one. In 1956, two Ameri- Left, observation of neutrinos registered by through your eyes every second, at almost cans, Fred Reines and Clyde Cowan, did just the IceCube experiment, South Pole (right) the speed of light, unseen. These will o’ the that at a nuclear reactor in an experiment wisps are the most enigmatic particles in the that was aptly named “Project Poltergeist.” have been travelling through space unseen universe. They are like electrons except that Pauli paid up. for over 13bn years. they have no electrical charge and almost Some neutrinos are coming up from the To capture even a few solar neutrinos, pro- no mass. They are impervious to electric ground beneath our feet, emitted by natu- duced by our nearby sun, requires thousands and magnetic forces, and interact with mat- ral radioactivity in rocks. But most of the of tonnes of material for use as a detector. ter through the “weak” force—the feeblest neutrinos that are presently all around you Neutrinos produced further away—by of the natural forces other than gravity. So were born in the heart of the Sun less than stars in our galaxy and beyond—are faint their faint affinity for matter makes neutri- 10 minutes ago—just a short while before compared to solar neutrinos, as is starlight nos very hard to detect. you decided to read this article. In just a to daylight. To have any chance of captur- Neutrinos are produced in nuclear trans- few seconds the Sun emits more neutrinos ing these fainter particles requires detectors mutations, such as the decay of a radioactive than there are grains of sand in the Sahara, containing over a cubic kilometre of matter. element in a rock. They are also produced a number greater even than the number of The ingenious solution is IceCube, an during the production of power in a nuclear atoms in all the humans who have ever lived. experiment at the South Pole, which uses reactor, or in the fusion processes that fuel If we could see neutrinos, our nights the ice in the Antarctic as a natural detec- the Sun and stars. The chance of capturing would be as bright as day: solar neutri- tor of neutrinos. It has detected neutrinos a neutrino is so small that when Wolfgang nos shine down on our heads by day and born outside our galaxy, and is looking into Pauli, the Austrian theoretical physicist, up through our beds by night—the earth is the galactic core of the Milky Way—a region proposed its existence in 1930, in order to almost transparent to them. It is not just the that we’ve never been able to see before. explain some properties of radioactivity, he Sun which acts as an emitter; all stars fill the A new form of science, neutrino astron- wagered a crate of champagne that no one void with neutrinos. omy, is blossoming. The chance of captur- would ever be able to detect the phantom. But the neutrinos born in the Sun and ing neutrinos grows in proportion to their The chance of observing a neutrino is small, stars, numerous though they are, are rela- energy, which enables them to be studied but not zero—and if the source of neutrinos tive newcomers. Most of the neutrinos in the in high-energy experiments at laboratories is intense enough, occasionally you can be cosmos are fossil relics of the Big Bang, and such as Cern. Even so, detectors have to be PROSPECT JULY 2014 SCIENCE 65

hundreds of cubic metres in volume. arctic, the ice pack does the job. Neutrino astronomy began with the Ice in the Antarctic is not like ice quest to detect solar neutrinos—their that we are used to on a cold winter’s vast number made the goal possible. day. In the Antarctic, snow has fallen But even though Ray Davis, an Amer- on ice for much longer than recorded ican scientist, began his experiment history. A mile beneath the surface, to detect neutrinos in 1960, it took the pressure is so great that all the 30 years before he finally convinced air bubbles have been squeezed out, doubters that he was indeed seeing leaving ice so pure that light flashes, solar neutrinos. produced by neutrinos, can travel When a solar neutrino hits an atom undimmed for hundreds of metres in of chlorine, this is converted into a the darkness. radioactive form of argon and from Photomultiplier tubes, devices for this, the collision of a single neutrino recording the tell-tale flashes of light, can be inferred. Davis used 400,000 have been lowered into the ice, down litres of cleaning fluid, which contains shafts that are made by a special drill chlorine, built his experiment a mile under- is like a barcode. By analysing the light, sci- that sprays out hot water to melt a hole. The ground, where the earth shielded it from entists can establish which atomic elements detector is attached to a long cable, lowered cosmic rays, and detected solar neutrinos are present within the star. The energies into the ice and then frozen in place. From at the rate of one or two a month, for three of neutrinos also form a spectrum, which then on it records data continuously. The decades. He lived to win the Nobel Prize in reveals how those elements were formed. array of detectors covers about a cubic kil- 2002, aged 87. This is because the processes that transmute ometre of ice, a volume that could fill one By the 1980s vast underground pools of elements, such as hydrogen to helium in our million swimming pools. The set-up is so pure water were used to detect neutrinos. sun, also emit neutrinos, and different trans- sensitive that each day it records up to 300 When a neutrino hits an electron in the mutations are signalled by neutrinos of char- neutrinos produced by cosmic rays hitting water or ice, it is like the head-on strike of acteristic energies. Thus by measuring the the atmosphere from all around the globe. a billiard ball. This makes a flash of light, energies of incoming neutrinos, and looking Some come from directly above the Antarc- which can be picked up by special electron- for peaks of intensity at various energies, it tic, while others have travelled all the way ics that can also measure its energy, when it will be possible to deduce which nuclear pro- through the Earth, from the North Pole. hit, and where it came from. cesses have taken place at their origin, mil- In November 2013, IceCube announced On 23rd February 1987, astronomers lions, maybe even billions of light years away. that it had detected 28 neutrinos that most noticed a supernova in the Large Magellanic Most exciting may be to detect neutrinos probably originated outside our galaxy. Cloud, a satellite galaxy of the Milky Way that were emitted during the first moments Already a handful of neutrinos have been in the southern skies. According to theory, of the Big Bang. This will enable us to peer detected with energies so vast that their this explosion should have emitted a blast of directly into the Big Bang for the first time. source is a mystery. As the 10-minute travel neutrinos numbering 1 followed by 59 zeroes. Now, 13.7bn years after the Big Bang, time of solar neutrinos is very long on the Having travelled across space for 170,000 its heat is a mere three degrees above abso- scale of the nanoseconds in the laboratory, years, the thinned-out shell of the super- lute zero: minus 270 degrees Celsius. This so are the journey times of cosmic neutrinos nova neutrinos passed through the Earth “microwave background” radiation was dis- correspondingly greater again. In travelling in a 15-second period that day. The under- covered in 1964, and is part of the legacy of from the most distant parts of the universe, ground experiments detected a handful of astronomy using the electromagnetic spec- over such immense timescales, exotic prop- neutrinos from the supernova. By detecting trum. From its temperature today, and the erties of neutrinos might be revealed. this momentary blast, scientists had their known rate of expansion of the universe, we The aim of neutrino astronomy is to first look into the workings of a supernova. can play the clock back and estimate the know what there is in the universe that we The data gathered that day confirmed that a temperature at earlier epochs. This shows cannot see in ordinary light, or in electro- supernova is the result of a massive star col- that in the 350,000 years after the Big Bang, magnetic waves of any wavelength. The hot lapsing to form a “neutron star,” the densest the universe was hotter than the surface of early universe is a goal. We can simulate its and smallest stars in the universe. our Sun. The Sun is opaque to light, as it heat by colliding particles at high energy, That supernova in 1987 was the first time is to electromagnetic radiation of all wave- such as at the Large Hadron Collider, and we saw any cosmic source other than the lengths. It is too hot to allow the waves to from the results we have deduced how the sun for neutrinos. And so it remained for pass, and the same is true of the hot Big universe behaved in those first moments. 25 years, until now. With the advent of Ice- Bang: to try to look into those early years But we have not been able to observe the Cube, neutrino astronomy promises to give by means of telescopes that use electromag- real event because the early universe is us a new way to view the cosmos. For hun- netic radiation is a hopeless task. However, opaque to electromagnetic radiation. Is dreds of years we have looked with our eyes, neutrinos that were produced before that there a spectrum of neutrinos analogous using the rainbow of visible light to observe time will still “shine.” The challenge is to to that of the microwave background radi- the universe. Light is a form of electromag- detect them. ation? Comparing the two will give clues to netic radiation, and for the last 60 years we When a neutrino hits an atom, in water how matter was formed. have expanded our electromagnetic sensors for example, the neutrino may turn into This is indeed “blue skies” research. We into the realms of invisible light: with radio an electron. If an electron is moving fast have no idea what we will find; therein is the and infra-red astronomy at one extreme; and enough, as it flies through the water it emits excitement and opportunity of such science. ultra-violet, X-ray and gamma ray astron- flashes of light, known as Cerenkov radia- Nonetheless, history suggests that there will omy at the other. With neutrinos we will, tion. Thus the flight of the electron lights be surprises—the creation of matter in the for the first time, examine nature by means up and from its track, the path of the origi- Big Bang is the source of everything that we utterly outside this electromagnetic spec- nal neutrino is inferred. The chance of a neu- see today, and neutrino astronomy offers a trum. What do we hope to learn? trino interacting with matter is so small that unique means to learn how it came about.

© FELIPE PEDREROS. ICECUBE/NSF © FELIPE The spectrum of light from a distant star a vast amount of target is needed. In the Ant- Frank Close is the author of “Neutrino” 68 PROSPECT JULY 2014 Arts & books Mondrian’s quest for abstraction 68 Is the self an illusion? 71 Excavating postwar Spain 73 The trouble with global history 76 Books in brief 78

Speaking in code Mondrian was an idealist whose ideas were doomed to fail—but his art remains as powerful as ever, says Sebastian Smee

You’re swimming in a placid sea. You stop one of the most influential careers in architecture and design. As far back as to look around, treading water, letting modern art. the 1890s, the Belgian painter and archi- your mind absorb the feeling of immer- He had moved to Paris two years ear- tect Henry van de Velde had described the sion. For a moment, the sky and shoreline lier—he was already 40—hoping to master architecture of his time as “a lie; all pos- disappear. You lose consciousness of your the fundamentals of Cubism, the revolu- turing and no truth.” Van de Velde and body. Instead, you’re hypnotised by the tionary method of picture-making invented his contemporaries were reacting against ever-shifting undulation of the water all by Pablo Picasso and Georges Braque. the rampant eclecticism of the 19th cen- around. Sunlight spreading in every direc- Living in the French capital at a time of tury, and the obsession with ornament over tion brings news of each inversion, but at a unprecedented artistic tumult, he was functionality. Their attack on these old aes- rate the brain is too slow to register. Pooling inspired as much by the humdrum, recti- thetics carried an ethical implication. And pinpricks of light multiply into something linear brick façades of buildings in Mont- this almost accusatory attitude towards the infinite, something universal. Reality has parnasse as by the Parisian avant-garde. past only grew stronger as the old architec- been involuntarily abstracted. Digitised. Now, in Holland, as his colleagues in ture, and the society it served, began to tear Piet Mondrian, I like to imagine, experi- Paris pushed on in new directions—collage, at the seams. enced something like this before he painted lettering, trompe l’oeil, pattern-making, Across the Atlantic in America, the breakthrough works like Ocean 5 (p70) found objects, assembled sculpture—Mon- Dutch Pennsylvania and Shaker traditions from 1914, and Composition No. 10 in Black drian remained obsessed with the earlier, of sobriety and simplicity stood ready to and White, otherwise known as Pier and purer stage of Cubist invention. That stage, be revived in a strange new compact with Ocean, from 1915. His response was to distil known as Analytic Cubism, had taken modernity. Frank Lloyd Wright was at the what he saw into a series of horizontal and Picasso and Braque to the brink of abstrac- forefront of a renovated aesthetic that trans- vertical dashes, rhythmically arranged, and tion. And where they had balked, Mondrian posed the hubris of verticality—a fight with with just enough variation in length and now waded in. gravity—into the harmonics of horizontality. spacing to capture the essence of it. He was a spiritualist, a truth-seeker. Heir Cleaving to truth ahead of beauty, the new Mondrian was, you could say, the first to the Dutch tradition of unyielding Puri- architecture declared its function—above digital artist. He was writing code before tanism, he also shared with his 17th-cen- all, shelter—and its constituent materials it was even invented. Computer code is the tury compatriot Spinoza the conviction that openly. Nothing was to be hidden. Noth- symbolic arrangement of data using ones a link existed between geometry and ethics. ing superfluous. The seeds of the modern- and zeros, and Mondrian’s breakthrough His apprenticeship in Paris was crucial; but ist notion that “less is more” had begun to paintings do something similar—capturing in the end, he had little in common with the sprout. So too had the ethical ideal of trans- the world in a binary code of horizontal and cosmopolitan, poetic, partisan preoccupa- parency. Ornament had no place in the new vertical dashes. His inspiration was nature. tions of his French avant-garde colleagues. scheme. It was a lie, a crime. But he was quick to see that the problem A figure of almost monastic self-pos- The first De Stijl manifesto, composed in of representation was not a question of cul- session and open-hearted humility, Mon- 1918 (but not published until 1922), made ture against nature, individual versus soci- drian had a nose for the universal. He was the state of things clear: ety, or the particular against the general. attracted to theosophy, the esoteric phi- It was about everything. All at once. In losophy, which melded east and west and There is an old and a new dynamic equilibrium. sought to understand the phenomena, both consciousness of time. Mondrian, who is the subject of a show hidden and revealed, that united human- at Tate Liverpool timed to coincide with ity, nature, and the divine. In Holland he The old is connected with the the 70th anniversary of his death, was the became closely involved with the De Stijl individual. son of a school teacher. Born in 1872, he movement, and especially that group’s was raised in a strictly Protestant house- leader, Theo van Doesburg. The new is connected with the hold by parents who nurtured his inter- Unlike earlier Mondrian exhibitions, universal. est in art. He was visiting family in his the Tate Liverpool show emphasises his native Holland when war broke out in explorations of three-dimensional space. The struggle of the individual 1914. He was forced to stay there for the Mondrian’s thinking on this subject had against the universal is revealing next five years—a circumstance that made much in common with ideas that were itself in the world war as well as in all the difference to the development of already coming to the fore in the fields of the art of the present day. PROSPECT JULY 2014 ARTS & BOOKS 69 TATE. © 2014 MONDRIAN/HOLTZMAN TRUST C/O HCR INTERNATIONAL USA HCR INTERNATIONAL TRUST C/O © 2014 MONDRIAN/HOLTZMAN TATE. No. VI / Composition No. 11 (1920): Mondrian’s quest was to rid his work of what he called the “particularity” of the image

Principally the work of van Doesburg, his pictures were given equal weight with a kind of depth or recession in space, Mon- the manifesto went on to state that the the centre). All this in the name of greater drian gradually introduced flat planes in new art would contain a balance between “truth.” primary colours (red, yellow, blue: more the individual and the universal. It would Truth could be represented, believed essentialism) connected together by thick “realise the internal life as well as the exter- Mondrian, by distilling the world into a sys- black lines and dispersed across the (reso- nal life.” tem of verticals and horizontals. Straight lutely flat) pictorial field in dynamic, asym- What did this mean? For Mondrian, it lines were better than curved ones, since, metrical compositions. meant ridding his work of what he called historically, the curving line had been so Mondrian’s motto—“each element is the “particularity” of the image. (You can closely associated with the by now thor- determined by its contrary”—drew directly feel the spectre of Protestant iconoclasm oughly corrupted idea of beauty. (In on Hegel’s Theory of Dialectics, accord- in his thinking.) He systematically elimi- any case, he saw straight lines as simply ing to which oppositions pitted against one nated spatial illusion from his work, purg- “tensed” curves.) another resulted not in stasis but in con- ing it of all hierarchy (no one aspect of the But lines alone were insufficient. Since stant evolution. Struggle, in other words, composition was to be more important than Pier and Ocean, with its black lines superim- was part of it. “It is in human nature to love another), and all centrality (the edges of posed on a white background, still implied a static balance,” wrote Mondrian; “the 70 ARTS & BOOKS PROSPECT JULY 2014

prototypes of installation art. The Tate Liv- erpool show even goes to the trouble of rec- reating Mondrian’s studio in rue du Départ in Paris. But in the end, Mondrian did not pur- sue architecture with the same conviction as his De Stijl colleagues. The idea of blend- ing the two pursuits, thereby dissolving “art into the environment,” ultimately proved beyond him. His problem was that architec- ture could never be truly abstract. Even if it could be theoretically de-centralised—that is, stripped of grand entrances and pleasing symmetries, with back doors and servants quarters relegated to their appropriate cor- ners; if it could be opened up democratically on all sides, as Le Corbusier and others tried to do—nonetheless, it would never have the essential purity Mondrian sought. So he re-focused his efforts on painting. And after his move from the addled Old World to the New, in 1940, he embraced his new home and enjoyed a late flourish- ing as an expatriate in New York, where he Ocean 5 (1915) aims “to capture the world in a series of horizontal and vertical dashes” painted unbuttoned, syncopated master- pieces such as Broadway Boogie-Woogie. great struggle, and the one which every art- ism, the fear of mechanisation, the aliena- The ideas that underpinned Mondri- ist must undertake, is to annihilate a static tion of the individual from basic conditions an’s art were of course part of a wider Uto- equilibrium.” of existence, the marginalisation of the pian dream that failed—and was perhaps All of this idealism, this sincere and artist and the life of the spirit, the death always bound to fail—when the attempt honest striving, which Mondrian pur- of God. Life, all these thinkers acknowl- was made to convert it into reality. But sued in parallel with similarly giddy edged, was fragmented. The avant-garde what is strange—what is to be cherished— seekers among the Soviet and German artists genuinely believed they could sew it about Mondrian’s paintings today (and avant-gardes, depended on the idea that together again. what is perhaps strange and to be cher- an equilibrium between individual spirit, Unlike their Soviet colleagues, how- ished about art in general) is that by some- society, and indeed the entire external ever, the members of De Stilj were wary how capturing a dream that never became world could somehow be found and main- of mixing the arts—of combining painting a reality, those paintings allowed the dream tained. Mondrian’s every statement, his with theatre, music, dance, or literature— to live on. every creative act, vibrated with inner con- When, a century after his early break- viction. Logically extended, his idealism— “Avant-garde artists throughs, we look at a painting by Mon- like the idealism of his contemporaries drian, we must push to the backs of our Fernand Léger, Wassily Kandinsky, Kazi- wanted their art to share minds not just the failure of the great mir Malevich (the subject of a concurrent centre stage with the early 20th-century collective experiments, retrospective at Tate Modern) and so many most prestigious fields but all the ways in which Mondrian’s own others—called for a breakdown of the divi- dream was subsequently corrupted, trivial- sion between art and life, and between all of human endeavour. ised, or re-packaged as kitsch, in the form the various fields of human endeavour. The They believed art could of everything from Yves Saint-Laurent’s “truth” of universality, after all, was to tri- Mondrian dress to the (highly addictive) umph over the illusory veil of particular- effect a kind of remedy” video-game, Pac-Mondrian. If we really ity. And so these avant-garde artists wanted look at Mondrian’s paintings, we can see their art to share centre stage with the because for them, the important thing was what marvels of distillation and balance most prestigious fields of human endeav- the evolution of each art towards its own they are. And when we do—when we find our. Society was broken. They believed art essence. They didn’t want to complicate the ourselves noticing the varying thicknesses could effect a kind of remedy. drive toward purity. of Mondrian’s hand-painted lines, when we The abstraction of Mondrian, and If there was one other field that was register the visual rhythms he established indeed of Kandinsky and Malevich, was open to fusion with painting, it was archi- with his inimitable blend of instinct and a response to a crisis that was felt every- tecture, since both relied on straight lines fastidiousness—we may gradually enter where at the time. The crisis was not just and planes. Mondrian explored architec- our own dream, one in which simple-seem- the catastrophe of the First World War. tural possibilities in his own studios. He ing visual phenomena gain a density, a The war was merely a symptom. The real deployed flat coloured planes throughout weight, and a rightness we had not previ- problem went much deeper, and it was the real spaces of the rooms he worked in, ously noticed, and where ideals of whole- diagnosed by philosophers and social sci- punctuating these arrangements with his ness and harmony seem, however briefly, to entists as diverse as Karl Marx, Friedrich own paintings, each new permutation of take their place not instead of, but along- Nietzsche, Max Weber, and Madame the ensemble triggering fresh ideas and side our fractured and fallen reality. Blavatsky (a founder of the Theosophical insights. In many ways, his studios were Sebastian Smee is the chief art critic for the Society). It was tied up with the pressures early harbingers of the minimalist sculp- Boston Globe and winner of the 2011 Pulitzer Prize for criticism PEGGY GUGGENHEIM COLLECTION, VENICE, SOLOMON R. GUGGENHEIM FOUNDATION, NEW YORK.© 2014 MONDRIAN/HOLTZMAN TRUST C/O HCR INTERNATIONAL USA TRUST C/O HCR INTERNATIONAL MONDRIAN/HOLTZMAN 2014 NEW YORK.© FOUNDATION, GUGGENHEIM R. VENICE, SOLOMON GUGGENHEIM COLLECTION, PEGGY of industrialisation and rampant urban- ture of artists like Donald Judd, and PROSPECT JULY 2014 ARTS & BOOKS 71 If your brain is vaporised... Can teleportation and LSD trips help us to understand the nature of the self? asks Jim Holt

Self identity. Dainton, a philosopher who teaches thought experiment in his 1984 book, Rea- by Barry Dainton (Penguin, £8.99) at the University of Liverpool, is a dissenter sons and Persons, this type of teleportation is from the no-self consensus. He can tell you a survivable process. Psychological continu- Me, Myself and Why: Searching for the exactly what your self really is and how to ity, Parfit argued, preserves what matters in Science of the Self keep track of it over time, even if it somehow personal identity. But not all philosophers by Jennifer Ouellette (Penguin US, £9.99) escapes your body (which he appears to think agree with this neo-Lockean view. Thomas is possible). Dainton presents a theory of the Nagel, for one, thinks that the correct cri- Most of us, when we look in the mirror, have “core self,” in all its philosophical purity. In terion for personal identity is physical, not a sense that behind the eyes looking back at contrast, Ouellette is concerned with the psychological. The key to your identity, us is a me-ish thing: a self. But this, we are “extended self,” the sum total of all we turn Nagel has suggested, is the physical object increasingly told, is an illusion. Why? Well, out to be: genetically, socially, temperamen- that is causally responsible for the contin- according to neuroscientists, there is no sin- tally, sexually. An American science journal- uing existence of your consciousness: your gle place in the brain that generates a self. ist, she wants us to understand how genes brain. On this “I am essentially my brain” According to psychologists, there is no little and environment conspire to make each of view, you cannot survive teleportation of commander-in-chief in our heads directing us idiosyncratically singular—indeed, more the kind Parfit describes. Once your brain is our behaviour. According to philosophers, singular than you might have imagined (as in vaporised, the lights go out for good. Even there is no “Cartesian ego” unifying our con- the case of a transgender person mentioned an exact physical duplicate of your body and sciousness, no unchanging core of identity by Ouellette who refers to her genitalia as brain would not be you—although it would that makes us the same person from day to “Schrödinger’s vagina”). Ouellette goes to certainly believe it was. day; there is only an ever-shifting bundle of heroic lengths to explore her own self, on one So which will it be, the psychological crite- thoughts, feelings and memories. occasion even dropping LSD in an attempt to rion or the physical? Those would seem to be In the last few years, a number of pop- dismantle it temporarily. the only options on the table (unless you’re ularising books, bearing titles like The Self The basic question about the self is: what, one of those benighted people who believe Illusion and The Ego Trick, have set out the in essence, am I? Is my identity rooted in in immaterial souls). But in Self, Dainton neuroscientific/psychological/philosoph- something physical (my body/brain) or stakes out what he takes to be a novel posi- ical case against the self. Much has been something psychological (my memories/per- tion—and a “very radical” one, by his own made of clinical cases where the self seems sonality)? Normally, physical and mental go estimation. What is critical to your identity, to malfunction spectacularly: like Cotard together, so we are not compelled to think of Dainton claims, has nothing to do with your syndrome, whose victims believe they do not ourselves as primarily one or the other. But psychological make-up. It is your stream of exist, even though they admit to having a life thought experiments can vex our intuitions consciousness that matters, regardless of history; or “dissociative identity disorder,” about personal identity. In An Essay Concern- its contents. That’s what makes you you. As where a single body seems to harbour mul- ing Human Understanding (1689), John Locke long as “your consciousness flows on without tiple selves, each with its own name, mem- imagined a prince and a cobbler miracu- interruption, you will go on existing”—even if ory, and voice. Most of us are not afflicted by lously having their memories switched while you have massive amnesia, or some evil scien- such exotic disorders. When we are told that they sleep: the prince is shocked to find him- tist replaces your psychology with a duplicate both science and philosophy have revealed self waking up in the body of the cobbler, of Steve Coogan’s. the self to be more fragile and fragmentary and the cobbler in the body of the prince. But what if you undergo anaesthesia, or than we thought, we take the news in our To Locke, it seemed clear the prince and the get knocked out, or simply doze off? Dain- stride and go on with our lives. cobbler had in effect undergone a body swap, ton is aware that such interruptions in the But perhaps we should be paying closer so psychological criteria must be paramount stream of consciousness pose a problem for attention. For example, there is striking evi- in personal identity. his initial conception, so he adjusts it a bit. dence (detailed by the Nobel laureate Dan- A more contemporary thought experi- Your self is not your stream of consciousness, iel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and ment along these lines involves “teleporta- which admittedly stops and starts; rather, it Slow) that each of us has a “remembering tion.” Suppose you want to get to Mars in a is your “capacity” for consciousness, which self,” which makes decisions, and an “expe- hurry. Instead of going in a spaceship, you riencing self,” which actually does the living. opt to be beamed there. You enter a tele- And when the remembering self looks back portation chamber on Earth, where a com- on an experience and decides how enjoyable plete scan of your body is done, after which it was, it can arrive at an assessment that is your body is vaporised; then the information quite out of whack from what the experienc- is sent at the speed of light to Mars, where a ing self actually endured. It is your remem- 3D printer creates a perfect duplicate of your bering self that tyrannically resolves to take body, right down to the cut on your upper lip another family vacation this summer, even you got from shaving that morning. You walk though your voiceless experiencing self was out of the receiving cubicle on Mars after just miserable for most of the last one. Evidently, a few minutes of unconsciousness. the subtleties of the self are of practical as Or do you? Is teleportation really a mode well as scholarly interest. of travel? Might it not rather be a mode of Barry Dainton’s Self and Jennifer Ouel- death? It maintains perfect psychological lette’s Me, Myself and Why stand out, in dif- continuity while destroying your original ferent ways, from the recent crop of books body and brain. that seek to undermine our sense of self- For Derek Parfit, who presented this 72 ARTS & BOOKS PROSPECT JULY 2014 is still there even when it is inactive during Philip Larkin called the “lading-list” of con- to its disappointment, discovered during the dreamless sleep. “According to my account of tingencies with which it becomes freighted Cold War when it set up a string of broth- the self,” Dainton writes, “there is a very real over the course of my life? els in San Francisco where prostitutes would sense in which we are nothing but potential.” Philosophy alone cannot give us an idea slip their johns a tab of acid so agents could The self, to use his term, is a “C-capacity”— of how weird and extensive that “lading-list” observe its effects through two-way mirrors. the “C” standing for “consciousness.” of the self is. For that, we need science, in Ouellette treads lightly over philo- This seems to be an awfully austere view all its laboratory-bench messiness. And it sophical ground, but she does take up the of the self. Am I really just a naked potential is hard to imagine a more delightful guide deep question of how different parts of the for consciousness, stripped of all psycholog- to the science of self than Ouellette. In Me, brain might collude to generate self-con- ical “quiddity,” inherent nature? If so, what Myself, and Why, she uses all the devices of sciousness. A robust sense of self seems to makes my self different from yours? Well, contemporary genetics, brain scanning and arise in us by the age of two, when children our C-capacities are embodied in different personality testing to delve deep into the for- learn to recognise themselves in the mirror. brains. But if C-capacities get their identi- mation of her own self. Chimpanzees can also do this, and are thus ties from the brains that realise them, then The book opens with the author, who believed to be endowed—afflicted?—with self Dainton’s theory is not so novel after all. It is was adopted as a child and never knew her consciousness; but few if any other species merely Nagel’s “I am my brain” position, dis- biological mother, getting a first look as an pass the mirror test. Yet even the humble guised by some ungainly new terminology. adult at her faded onion-skin birth certifi- roundworm C elegans, with its paltry 302 neu- But Dainton suggests that, given the right cate, and marvelling at the unfamiliar name rons and 2,462 synaptic connections (which circumstances, a single stream of conscious- that it bears: “fragments of a self that might scientists have exhaustively mapped), has a ness might be able to flow from one brain to have been.” She sends a bit of her saliva in single neuron devoted to distinguishing its another—or even from a brain into a com- the mail to a genetic-testing company called body from the rest of the world. “I think it’s puter. All that is required is the right kind of 23andMe to get an idea of the DNA she fair to say that C elegans has a very primitive “bridge” (or perhaps we should say “plumb- inherited. This becomes the pretext for an self-representation” comments the philoso- ing,” to avoid mixing our metaphors). informative account of how genes can fine- pher-neuroscientist Patricia Churchland— In fairness to Dainton, interesting philo- tune our personalities. (People with a long indeed, she adds, “a self.” sophical propositions often sound like carica- version of a gene that codes for dopamine- If the spectrum of selfhood begins with tures when they are ripped out of the context receptor molecules, for example, “tend to the roundworm, surely it ends with Proust— of careful reasoning in which they naturally score higher on extroversion and novelty- whose own oversubtle explorations of mem- live. And Dainton’s reasoning is not just care- seeking. The longer the gene, the greater ory and the self are sadly neglected in these ful, but often clever. It is also fun to follow, the need for novelty.”) Ouellette explains two otherwise estimable books. Moving from thanks to his relaxed and humorous prose. why people are “surprisingly good” when it Barry Dainton’s philosophical conception of In a brief volume he ranges over a vast con- comes to assessing their inner feelings and the self—pure, pristine potential—to the end- ceptual territory, lucidly presenting cur- insecurities, but are much poorer at assess- lessly variegated empirical self traced by Jen- rent views of how consciousness fits into the ing their outward traits, like intelligence and nifer Ouellette, I was reminded of Proust’s physical world, and speculating with brio on attractiveness. Discussing narcissicism, she description (near the beginning of The Guer- the fate of the self in a future age of brain- notes that celebrities test higher than aver- mantes Way) of what it’s like to wake up out of augmentation and virtual reality. age for this trait, with female reality TV stars a leaden slumber. At first, there’s just a glim- I only wish Dainton’s own conception of scoring off the chart. mer of undefined consciousness; you’re not the self was not so minimal. As he himself The most entertaining chapter in this even a person. Then gradually, in a sort of acknowledges, it leaves untouched the issues very entertaining book concerns the author’s resurrection, you recover your thoughts, your about the self raised by contemporary neuro- acid trip—undertaken in a spirit of pure memories, your personality; you become you science and psychology. It says nothing about enquiry and ending in psychedelic bathos. again. Proust’s narrator likens the awakening the role of the conscious self as the (real or She describes the history of LSD and psilo- process to finding a lost object. What baffles deluded) originator of our choices and cybin, what little is understood about their him is how, “among the millions of human actions. And, unlike Derek Parfit’s view of temporary fragmenting effect on the brain, beings one might be,” he unerringly manages the self, it seems to have no implications for and their positive potential for curing clus- to lay his hands on the very self he was the our attitude toward death. If I am in essence ter headaches, breaking the hold of alcohol- day before. Puzzling as the self is, that might nothing but a capacity for consciousness, ism, and generally “rebooting” a brain that be one puzzle too many. how should I feel about the inevitable extinc- is caught up in destructive loops. What LSD Jim Holt is the author of “Why Does the World tion of this bare capacity, as opposed to what is no good for is “mind control,” as the CIA, Exist?” (Profile) Anatomy of a nation The Spanish novelist Javier Cercas has spent his career upending the liberal pieties of the post- Franco generation, says Evelyn Toynton

Outlaws ing doubt on the reliability of narrative, of found—and not always among those who by Javier Cercas (Bloomsbury, £16.99) truth itself. But by the end, the book steps are seen as the good guys. away from postmodernism to reveal itself The novel’s protagonist is a failed writer The Spanish writer Javier Cercas made his as a passionate affirmation of old-fash- (to whom Cercas gives his own name) who reputation in 2001 with Soldiers of Salamis. ioned humane values. While Cercas has sets out to find the (fictitious) man who, in The novel begins as a perfect postmod- devoted his literary career to exploring the closing days of the Spanish Civil War, ernist shaggy-dog story, in which Cercas moral ambiguity, he has also affirmed the spared the life of Rafael Sánchez Mazaz, skilfully muddles fact and fiction, cast- possibility of heroism wherever it may be one of the key architects of Spanish 74 ARTS & BOOKS PROSPECT JULY 2014 fascism. When Cercas-the-narrator finally rity in Spain. (He was perhaps loosely low; Zarco himself jeers at it as a sentimen- tracks down the battered but fiercely alive inspired by a Romany figure Spaniards tal fiction, preferring to accept the idea of ex-communist soldier he believes was called the Heifer, whose chaotic child- his own evil. Yet again, Cercas is question- Mazaz’s saviour, the book becomes an hood, criminal antics and anti-establish- ing the liberal pieties of his generation. elegy for all the forgotten men who fought ment rhetoric made him a hero to certain Outlaws has moments of undeniable for what they believed in, not just those on segments of the public in the post-Franco dramatic power. Its depictions of both the Republican side. As Jeremy Treglown years.) The story is told through a series the miseries of the new urban underclass says in his excellent recent book Franco’s of long interviews between an anonymous in the post-Franco years and the freakish Crypt: Spanish Culture and Memory Since writer planning a book about Zarco and a media circus surrounding the campaign 1936, Cercas “dramatises… the connect- lawyer called Cañas who, as a timid, geeky to get Zarco released ring true. But the edness of opposed sides in the Civil War.” middle-class adolescent in the late 1970s, ambiguities Cercas explored so effectively Soldiers of Salamis brought this truth home briefly stumbled into an involvement with in some of his other books can devolve to many Spaniards and to an international Zarco’s gang. here into what feels like nit-picking: part audience. of me felt this… part felt that; maybe she Cercas went on to explore the theme thought this… maybe she thought that; I’m further in his non-fiction novel, The Anat- “Who could have not sure why he said that to me… there are omy of a Moment (2009), which also upends predicted that the three possible reasons; let me tell them to the leftist certainties of his generation. The change to democracy in you. The interview format—really a series “moment” of the title occurred in 1981, of long monologues by Cañas, interrupted when a group of armed right-wing mili- Spain would be plotted by occasional questions from the writer— tants burst into the Spanish parliament, by the Falangists and means that much of the immediacy is lost. hoping to overthrow the fragile new democ- The events Cañas describes lose their vivid- racy by force. Only three men stood up to communists?” ness through being so minutely dissected. them, rather than dropping to the floor, Whereas in the closing section of Soldiers cowering. One was a member of the Span- The first half of the book consists of of Salamis Cercas’s characteristically long ish fascist party, the Falange; another had Cañas’s minutely detailed recollections of sentences achieve a passionate elegiac been one of Franco’s generals; and the third his time with the gang: his crush on Zarco’s grandeur, here they can strike the reader was a leader of the Communists. As Cer- elusive girlfriend Tere, his romanticisation as merely slack and stringy. cas writes: “Who could have predicted that of Zarco and fear of him, the bank heist and Even Cercas’s best books threaten the change from dictatorship to democracy police ambush from which only he escaped to become wearisome when the writer- in Spain would not be plotted by the dem- unscathed. narrator starts playing meta-fictional ocratic parties but by the Falangists and In the second half, Cañas recounts how, games with the idea of truth and reality. the communists, irreconcilable enemies of more than 20 years later, Tere suddenly But because the kinds of truth he is dealing democracy and each other’s irreconciliable shows up in his life again, asking him to with are so complex and momentous—the enemies during three years of war and 40 get Zarco paroled. By this time Cañas has Spanish Civil War, Franco’s dictatorship, postwar years?” become a successful lawyer; his marriage Vietnam—they at least seem worthy of such In between those two books came a has fallen apart, however, and he is increas- attention. In Outlaws, that is not always the novel, The Speed of Light (2005), about ingly plagued with a sense of the futility of case. At times, Cercas seems to be engaged another country’s war. It was also another his life. Zarco, meanwhile, has been repeat- in a desperate attempt to invest the events book about trying to write a book, about edly imprisoned for theft and assault. he’s describing with a significance that he the uncertain nature of truth. The narra- Since Cañas always wondered whether can’t quite believe in. There are no heroes tor is a Spanish writer who, like Cercas, Zarco deliberately allowed him to escape in this book, and for all its postmodernist once taught at the University of Illinois the police ambush, and whether, by talk- wiles, Cercas’s finest work has always relied at Urbana. He has struggled for years to ing about the plans to rob the bank before- on heroes and high stakes to give it inten- write something about a Vietnam veteran hand, he had unwittingly been responsible sity. In their absence, we, like Cañas, are too he befriended during his time in America. for the gang’s capture, he takes on the case. often left floundering. Though there is no redemption for the sol- And since it gives him a renewed sense of Evelyn Toynton’s most recent book is “Jackson dier, who is tormented by the memory of purpose, he devotes himself to it single- Pollock” (Yale University Press) the war crimes he committed, the narrator mindedly. He also falls in love with Tere cannot wholly condemn him. By the time all over again, while she, as in their youth, he finally manages to learn the American’s refuses all commitment and remains an real story and wrestle his book into shape, enigma to him. he is too guilt-ridden about his own mon- With the aid of Tere and Zarco’s sup- strously narcissistic behaviour following the posed fiancée, Cañas engineers a highly global success of one of his novels (closely successful PR campaign to present Zarco resembling Soldiers of Salamis) to go in for as a Robin Hood figure and/or the victim of the harsh moral judgements he once made. an inhumane system and a harrowing child- “The horror lay in the war,” he says, “but hood. Meanwhile, he is gradually being long before that it lay in us.” forced to recognise that Zarco is incapable Now Cercas has dived into a different of behaving decently even to his supporters, kind of moral murk, one unrelated to war and that, after his long years of incarcera- but still part of his exploration of the after- tion, he is unable to cope with the pros- math of Franco’s long reign. The hero/anti- pect of freedom, despite his insistence that hero of Outlaws, his new novel, is a juvenile he be released. The image of a noble and delinquent named Zarco, the leader of a misunderstood rebel that Cañas, Tere and teenage gang of thieves, who morphs into Zarco’s would-be wife peddle so skilfully to “Dilettantes! They’ve ransacked the art a full-blown criminal and becomes a celeb- the public begins to seem increasingly hol- supply stores and they’re headed this way!” 76 ARTS & BOOKS PROSPECT JULY 2014 The world transformed The 19th century gave birth to the modern world, says Samuel Moyn. Can an epic new history revitalise interest in this period?

The Transformation of the World on its appearance in Germany in 2009 and by Jürgen Osterhammel (Princeton, £27.95) now in a fine English translation by Patrick Camiller. Where the 20th century sought In the imagination of historians, the 19th its own origins in the 19th century, the 21st century once reigned supreme. The French has followed suit. Osterhammel, who trained Revolution of 1789, some said, had given originally as a Chinese specialist, expounds birth to a “permanent revolution,” as the the origins not of the collapse of liberalism forces of progress and reaction struggled for and the birth of communism and fascism, supremacy. Karl Marx insisted in his essay, but instead the emergence of “globalisation” “The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napo- in all its forms. leon,” that the spirit of communism seemed In many ways, his venture is stagger- to be burrowing through the 19th century like ingly impressive. In the old narrative of a mole that would eventually break ground the 19th century, the world beyond Europe definitively. Twentieth-century historians, figured largely as a place to be colonised who had the benefit of hindsight, knew he and brought into the European sphere by was right. Eric Hobsbawm gained fame force or fraud. In Osterhammel’s narra- largely for picking up Marx’s narrative of tive, Europe is no longer the centre of world capitalism and its contradictions and show- history, although he acknowledges that ing how, through the ages of industry and “never before had the western peninsula of empire, it still held good in the 20th century. Eurasia ruled and exploited larger areas of And there were further reasons to care the globe.” about the 19th century. The origins of fascism What stands out to him about the 19th and Nazism, not merely 20th-century com- century is the reorganisation of space, as munism, needed to be explained, and it was parts of the world were brought together by not unreasonable to suppose that their roots powerful steamships and long-haul rail, and lay in the previous century. It seemed obvious the standardisation of time. (Clocks were to many that a pan-European phenomenon synchronised and, by international agree- that began in Italy and Germany in different ment, the Greenwich meridian became decades—before and after the Great Depres- “prime,” though the French kept Paris alive sion—did not merely spring from short-term as an alternative for a few decades.) Above Stockport viaduct, 1845: faster transport origins and accidents. After the First World all, Osterhammel highlights the movement connected the world in new ways War, then in droves after the Second World of people, goods, ideas, and even art forms, War, historians of German lands zealously thanks to speedier connections on the It is a tremendous feat of labour to gather traced the German nation’s Sonderweg—the ground, across the seas, and in communica- so much information between two covers, notorious “special path” that led it to bring tions networks such as rapid postal circuits but readers interested in particular subjects so many calamities to the world. Scholars of and nearly instantaneous telegraph lines. are best advised to read more specific books. German history, like the Marxist historians, The world was flattened, argues Osterham- The only justification for such a study could became habitués of the 19th century. mel, in this colossally important period. We have been a whole that added up to more Then something happened. The fall of are its heirs. than the sum of its parts. Unfortunately, communism made the seeds of revolution There is more to Osterhammel’s epic this is not the case. seem less interesting. By that time even the story than this. For every illustration of the In compensation for the absence of plot 19th-century roots of Nazism, once obsessed- intensification of global connections, he and fresh details, Osterhammel labours over, had became unfashionable. (Wasn’t points to darker implications. Osterhammel over conceptual approaches to his subject every nation’s path special?) A few months notes, for example, the way in which nations matter. Sometimes he borrows frameworks ago I heard a leading critic of the notion of a began to send criminals to jails far away. of analysis from others, but generally Oster- German Sonderweg, historian David Black- The Russian empire received bad press for hammel grinds his own theoretical lenses, bourn, note regretfully that his attack 30 its Siberian penal colonies, but the British which he tries out on different topics, like years ago on the old assumptions had inad- had paved the way in Australia from 1788 an optometrist seeking the right prescrip- vertently destroyed scholarly interest in the until 1868, deporting over 162,000 convicts tion for a series of customers. He hands us 19th century. Academic historians simply to the ends of the earth. Each of Osterham- a new pair of glasses for each theme, but stopped studying it. Many departments of mel’s extended chapters provides a bird’s no 19th century comes into view in a single history now skip the era. Even historians of eye view of a global phenomenon—alterna- arresting image. empire, a topic that has boomed over the last tive types of cities, say, or changing medical Take the amazing chapter on cities, for 30 years, have tended to prefer the 20th cen- care—that amounts to an independent essay instance. Some cities, typically European tury, when anti-colonialism surged. in its own right. ones like Paris, were admired by a global Yet if it is too important and interest- Yet The Transformation of the World is dis- audience, and imitations sprung up every- ing to be sacrificed, we need new reasons to appointing as a whole. Rather than a unified where. But not all urban settings were cast revive the 19th century. Jürgen Osterhammel story, Osterhammel has offered up a series in this mould. There were pilgrimage towns attempts to find some in his massive tome, of thematic exercises. And despite the size old and new, such as Mecca, Lourdes, and The Transformation of the World, celebrated of the book, there are few factual surprises. Omdurman (host to Sudan’s Mahdi move- CREDIT IN HERE was and how it would come to pass. bitterly how about the close disagreed finale century triumphant, offreedom though they what Hegel envisaged and Marx was a 19th better than we do today. Extending Kant, who thought world big about history, and GWFother Germans, Hegel and Karl Marx, mology. But what really is missing are those versionhistorical ofImmanuel Kant’s episte time they lived through, perhaps in a kind of selves the understood changes in space and on how during the people 19th century them- of history. out with chapters starts The book enough not abstract is book to philosophy be work for required is a new topic. the chapter over on cities than a new frame tively 19th-century forms. is But no sooner “colonial city” was one of the distinc most empire leads Osterhammel to infer that the of the extractive or settling enterprises of of these were founded or expanded part as railway ports, mines, That junctions. many ment), while other grew cities around spas, weakness of explanatory power may rest Osterhammel acknowledges that “a certain in thinking big enough to include women.) better than 19th-century his predecessors hammel draws he do much back. (Nor does ing of why the century might matter, Oster PROSPECT JULY PROSPECT 2014 Faced with such understand a majestic Too to history, be abstract Osterhammel’s - - - - - analyses that have, useful yielded inthe past, displacing risks thehistory more constrained have both recently argued that globalising and Linda Colley of Princeton University to acautionarybegun sound note. David Bell thathistory leading some historians have exemplary individuals goods. or specific wide, aims to track the global movements of sweepingis through faculties history world global history.” intellectual This trend, which termedrecent “the publications loosely new among the of notable a tidal wave most of cue of the 21st. Osterhammel’s only is book ry’s thinkers bolder might come to the res perspective, but to imagine how that centu tory of the 19th century from our fragmented and thescale modesty of argument. mismatchdrastic between the immensity of why didhewrite this We book? a are leftwith Startingly, then Osterhammel concurs—but inthe state ofresearch.” present not possible general of history the world but necessary is vonhistorical profession, Leopold Ranke. “A theGerman, 19th-century founder of the much to Osterhammel bold. cites be another detail upon he knows detail. In a sense, too enough things, merely and to to describe lard thisabout than one might if it were wish—as of theat the glum He project.” heart less is So intense the is So pressure to “globalise” It might interesting be not to tell the his ARTS &BOOKS - - - - Rights and the Uses of History” (Verso)Rights and theUsesofHistory” University. Hisnewbookis“Human Harvard at Samuel Moynteaches LawandHistory should matter for the future. better why reason the new global history If he had done so, he might have found a the meaning of the world’s transformation. would unifying require some about vision not takehammel does a stand, which revolution for which Oster pined. Marx forwas a need still the kind of equalising for freedom aged all men or whether there whether the society of modern birth pres ment between Hegel was and Marx about to structures, capitalist the disagree but jagged in a new way. itmadetury notonly the because world flat, nation We states. are of the heirs 19th cen returnedhas today both within and among before in world history—a syndrome that grewand poor more pronounced than ever locally and globally, the gulf between rich the financial rewardsBoth of capitalism. ing power, new as elites emerged to reap tocrats to Japanese were shoguns, los how from elites, European aris old social nomic grounds. Osterhammel describes the on reshaping eco distinction of social alive and well, the 19th century saw also related imperial assumptions remained notice only its disparate features. where nowadays process, a unified as we understand the they globalisation witnessed Like Hegel, visionaries of that era tried to versal hesaw freedom around just the bend. destroyed for the sake of the of the rise uni uplifting that old forms like feudalism were a “slaughtertory as yet bench,” he found it For Hegel famously part, his referred to his ture thanks to 19th-century globalisation.) saw in nature what often in occurred cul haps no coincidence that Charles Darwin to the new environment or die. (It was per of life around the world often had to adapt empire spread, ancestral, inherited ways that the prized “new new thing,” and as ence. The 19th century was the one first involved the destruction of cultural differ humanity have their turn on the stage. that all the different characters of a motley out of this vacationer’s imperative, insisting expanded has history in part, its horizons, ofcomparison different ways of life. Global that every traveller knows: for the sake of national answer borders? One the is one but not ambitiousambitious, enough. mel’s work suggests global not too is history state. size, its immense Despite Osterham wary of global history, in its current at least trends. But there to abe further is reason factorslocal in explaining events most and overlooking risks history the supremacy of withbooks value. lasting Simply put, global As feudal arrangements gave way on race and While hierarchies based Yet 19th-century globalisation often What to beyond look our reason is 77 ------78 ARTS & BOOKS PROSPECT JULY 2014 Books in brief

Indonesia etc character aware of being manipulated by ing door” between the public and private what he calls “the cow Author.” sectors. by Elizabeth Pisani (Granta, 18.99) From her debut in 1993, Love Your Ene- Marquand does righteous anger very For many, Indonesia is a mies, to the Booker-shortlisted Darkmans, well—it’s hard to think of a political writer mysterious place of shadow Barker has always come at life sideways, with a finer prose style—but what is miss- puppets and spice islands, usually depicting unglamorous places like ing is any analysis of the institutions of though perhaps for viewers Canvey Island and Luton. If you share the post-modern market state; for exam- of the recent film The Art of her sense of the absurd, she is very funny ple, the enormous “para-statal” organisa- Killing the brutal anti-com- indeed, and this novel—which is, among tions—companies like Serco and G4S—that munist pogroms of the 1960s other things, an account of how two irrita- run public services today. For that, one might also loom large. A ble, damaged and eccentric adults, Hahn would have to look elsewhere, to the work more coherent picture emerges, however, and Huff, fall in love—is a riot. Are they of journalists such as James Meek, to from Elizabeth Pisani’s lucidly analytical being haunted by Orla, or is it their Author which Marquand’s diagnoses are never- but affectionate new book. Indonesia, with who is mischievously responsible? Why is theless an indispensable philosophical over 13,000 islands and 360 ethnic groups, Orla’s “shrine” full of forget-me-nots, and accompaniment. has the fourth largest population in the why do characters suffer indignities like Jonathan Derbyshire world, and embraces an astonising variety of being pooed on by a passing swan? religions, from Calvinism to Animism, but Barker plays with conventional narra- Travelling Sprinkler more significantly Islam and Catholicism. tive—her characters opine, mutter, smile, by Nicholson Baker (Serpent’s Tail, £8.99) Though a colourful and entertaining trave- bleat and worse when speaking—and her logue in form, Indonesia etc has an instruc- send-up of Henry James may not be to In his tenth novel, Travel- tive organising theme: the struggle to create everyone’s taste. However, her 494 pages ling Sprinkler, Nicholson a single nation from such diversity. This pro- describing those stuck “on life’s eternal ring Baker revisits Paul Chow- ject, in multifarious variations, has been the road,” unable to “make that sharp turn into der, the central charac- story of many postcolonial states; the com- the very heart of the matter” ultimately ter from his 2009 novel, mon plot being the transition from top- become more affecting than affected. The Anthologist. A poet in down modernisation in the 1950s and 60s Amanda Craig his mid-fifties, Chowder to greater decentralisation since the 1990s. has lost his way and wants In Indonesia’s case Javanese imperialism Mammon’s Kingdom his ex-girlfriend Roz back. He has aban- (leftist under Sukarno and rightist under by David Marquand (Allen Lane, £20) doned “difficult” poems for pop music, lay- Suharto) gave way to extreme localism. ing down tracks on synth software in his Pisani is fully alert to the high costs of A little over 25 years ago, in barn. When he isn’t writing songs, Chow- such “democracy through anarchy”—in the midst of the “Lawson der indulges in all the low-level addictive particular patronage, corruption and inef- boom” and the Thatcher behaviours technology can offer. He is a ficiency. The advantage, she argues, is that government’s privatisa- YouTube autodidact, an intensive cura- from the false unity of central-state fiat, tion of major public utili- tor of his iTunes library and a close-reader a more organic sense of common identity ties, David Marquand, the of tobacco reviews on a website called The is emerging. Some may be sceptical about political writer, historian Cigar Inspector. the long-term viability of a nation based on and former Labour MP, A song Chowder likes is a “genuine clan and kinship networks, but Pisani’s cen- published a book entitled The Unprincipled brainworm”—a tune you can’t get out tral metaphor—of a society no longer con- Society. In it, he examined the “tacit under- of your head. Can fiction, too, have that tent to just observe politics from behind a standings” that, in his view, lay at the root effect? Partly, yes. It can be quotable and screen, as in a shadow puppet play, but deter- of the “adjustment problems” experienced compulsive, as Baker shows, even when mined to face its complex realities head on— by Britain’s political economy after the oil dealing with the most mundane topics. is persuasive. shock of 1973 and the crisis of “stagflation” (Obsession is a familiar theme with Baker, Maria Misra that followed. whose third book, U&I, is a chronicle of According to those understandings, his creatively paralyzing admiration for In the Approaches society is nothing more than an aggregate John Updike.) As in previous novels such by Nicola Barker (4th Estate, 18.99) of atomistic individuals and any notion of as Room Temperature, Baker pursues the “public purpose” just the sum of essentially almost-banal: two characters dispute Nicola Barker’s 10th novel private projects. Marquand’s analysis of this whether “inscrutable” is a better word than is a dark comedy of man- politico-intellectual dispensation remains “cash.” Experiences are “good” or “impos- ners set in 1984 near Rye, largely intact in his latest book. sibly good.” At one point, he transcribes East Sussex. Largely con- Mammon’s Kingdom is a much angrier throat-clearing: “Harrooom!” Chowder’s veyed through dialogue book than The Unprincipled Society, how- voice channels the melancholy banter of and interior monologue, it ever—partly because, in Marquand’s late night radio, with added quotes, puns, is told by a variety of char- view, the “attrition of the public realm” sorrows and sighs. And the narrative is car- acters—ranging from Carla has intensified over the intervening quar- ried by an energy like that of browsing Hahn, the half-German former nurse of ter-century. He inveighs here against the the internet: amusing, surprising, finally Orla Nor, a young woman believed by some rent-seeking “power elite” in Britain that noncommittal. to be a saint, to Clifford Bickerton, the only moves back and forth through the “revolv- Laura Marsh 78 PROSPECT JULY 2014 Fiction Yu Hua

Yu Hua is one of China’s most celebrated focusing on the mundane and often writers. His novels, stories and essays have brutal realities of life in modern China. been translated into more than 20 “It was in 1995 that I wrote this story languages. His novel, Brothers, was of a fruit vendor named Sun Fu and a shortlisted for the Man Asian Literary hungry boy who crosses his path,” says Prize and awarded France’s Prix Courrier Yu. “Two wretched fates meet by the side International. Yu’s latest book is Boy in the Twilight: of the road and one tragedy torments another. Stories of the Hidden China, from which the story Why? Chinese society was entering a new phase below comes. Unlike the wild satire of Brothers, Boy then, as people became locked in a ruthless struggle

© MICHAEL LIONSTAR © MICHAEL in the Twilight is a more intimate, realist work, for survival.” Boy in the Twilight

t was the middle of an autumn day. Sun Fu sat beside a the apples and bananas, as Sun Fu watched him with equal atten- fruit stand, his eyes squinting in the bright sunshine. He tion. After gazing at the fruit for a while, the boy looked up at Sun leaned forward, hands on his knees, and his grizzled hair Fu. “I’m hungry,” he said. seemed gray in the sunlight, gray like the road that lay Sun Fu was silent. “I’m hungry,” the boy repeated, a note of before him, a wide road that extended from the far dis- urgency creeping into his voice. Itance and then stretched off in the other direction. He had occu- Sun Fu scowled. “Clear off.” pied this spot for three years now, selling fruit near where the The boy’s body seemed to give a shiver. “Clear off,” Sun Fu said long-haul buses stopped. When a car drove by, it shrouded him in again, more loudly. the dust stirred by its passage, plunging him into darkness, and The boy gave a start. His body swayed hesitantly before his it was a moment before he and his fruit re-emerged, as though legs began to move. Sun Fu took his eyes off the boy and switched unveiled by a new dawn. his attention to the highway. A long-haul bus had come to a halt After the cloud of dust had passed, he saw an urchin in dirty on the other side of the road, and the people inside stood up. clothes in front of the stall, watching him with dark, gleaming Through the bus windows, he could see a column of shoulders eyes. As he returned the boy’s gaze, the boy put a hand on the crowding toward the doors; a moment later, passengers poured fruit, a hand with long black fingernails. When he saw the nails from both ends of the bus. Then, out of the corner of his eye, Sun brush against a shiny red apple, Sun Fu raised his hand to wave Fu saw the boy dashing off as fast as his legs could carry him. him away, the way he would swat away a fly. “Clear off,” he said. He wondered why, and then he saw the boy’s flailing hand: it was The boy withdrew his grubby hand and swayed a little as he clutching something, something round. Now he recognised what shuffled off, his arms hanging slack at his sides. On such a skinny it was. He leapt to his feet and set off in chase. “Stop thief!” he body his head looked oversized. shouted, “Stop that thief there…” Others were now approaching the stand, and Sun Fu turned to It was afternoon now. Dust flew as the boy fled along the high- look. They stopped on the other side of the stall and threw him a way. He heard shouting behind him, and looked round to see glance. “How much are the apples?” they asked. “How much for Sun Fu in hot pursuit. He floundered on desperately, gasping for a pound of bananas?” breath, and when his legs began to go soft he knew he had no Sun Fu stood up, weighed apples and bananas on his steel- more reserves of energy. Looking back a second time, he saw Sun yard, and took their money. Then he sat down and put his hands Fu still on his tail, yelling and waving his arms furiously. All hope on his knees. The boy had come back. This time he was not stand- gone, the boy came to a stop and turned around, panting heav- ing directly in front, but off to one side, his glowing eyes fixed on ily. He watched until Sun Fu was almost on top of him and then raised the apple to his mouth and took a big bite out of it. From “Boy in the Twilight: Stories of the Hidden China” (Pantheon) translated Sun Fu swung his arm and struck the boy, knocking the apple from Chinese by Allan H Barr. Translation copyright © 2014 by Allan H Barr out of his hand and connecting so firmly with the boy’s chin that PROSPECT JULY 2014 FICTION 79 © MICHELLE THOMPSON © MICHELLE he collapsed on the ground. He shielded his head with his hands, in the end there was just a dry noise, no saliva any more. “That’ll all the time chewing vigorously. Sun Fu, incensed, seized the boy do,” Sun Fu said. by the collar and hauled him to his feet. The boy’s throat was so He saw many familiar faces among the people who had gath- constricted by the tight collar that it was impossible for him to ered to watch. “In the old days we never locked our doors, did chew; his eyes began to goggle and his cheeks swelled, some apple we?” he said. “There wasn’t a family in the whole town that locked still inside. Gripping the collar with one hand, Sun Fu squeezed its doors, was there?” the boy’s neck with the other. “Spit it out! Spit it out!” he yelled. He saw people nodding. “Now, after locking the door once, A crowd was gathering. “He’s still trying to eat it!” Sun Fu told you have to use a second lock as well,” he continued. “Why? It’s them. “He stole my apple and took a bite out of it, and now he’s because of thieves like this. If there’s one thing I hate, it’s a thief.” trying to swallow it!” Sun Fu looked at the grimy-faced boy, who watched spell- Sun Fu slapped him hard on the face. “Come on, spit it out.” bound, as though fascinated by what he was saying. The boy’s But the boy simply clenched his mouth all the more firmly. expression stirred an excitement in him. “If we follow the old Sun Fu put a hand on his throat and started throttling him once ways,” he said, “we ought to break one of his hands, break the more. “Spit it out!” he cried. hand that did the stealing....” As the boy’s mouth opened, Sun Fu could see chewed-up bits Sun Fu looked down at the boy. “Which hand was it?” he of apple inside. He tightened his vice-like grip on the boy’s throat, shouted. until his eyes began to bulge. “Sun Fu,” somebody said, “look, his The boy shivered and hastily put his right hand behind his eyeballs are practically popping out of his head. You’re going to back. Sun Fu grabbed the hand and showed it to everybody. “It strangle him.” was this hand. Otherwise, why would he try to hide it so quickly?” “Serves him right,” Sun Fu said. “It serves him right if he’s “It wasn’t that hand!” the boy cried. strangled.” “Then it was this hand.” Sun Fu grabbed the boy’s left hand. Finally, he loosened his hold. “If there’s one thing I hate,” he “No, it wasn’t!” said, pointing at the sky, “it’s a thief.....Spit it out!” As he said this, the boy tried to pull his hand away. Sun Fu gave The boy began to spit out the apple piece by piece. It was a bit him a slap on the face that made him teeter. After a second slap, like squeezing toothpaste out of a tube, the way he spat bits onto the boy stood still. Sun Fu grabbed him by the hair, jerking his his shirt front. After he closed his mouth, Sun Fu levered it open head up. “Which hand was it?” he yelled, staring into his face. again with his hand, and bent down to look inside. “You haven’t The boy’s eyes widened as he looked at Sun Fu, and after a spit it all out,” he said. “There’s still some left.” moment he stretched out his right hand. Sun Fu took hold of The boy spat again—practically all saliva this time, but with a the boy’s wrist, and with his other hand gripped the middle fin- few crumbs of apple here and there. The boy spat and spat, until ger of the boy’s hand. “If we follow the old ways,” he said to 80 FICTION PROSPECT JULY 2014 the bystanders, “we should break this hand. We can’t do that any The passersby could no longer make out what it was he was more. Now we emphasise education. How do we educate?” shouting. “He’s shouting ‘I’m a thief,’” Sun Fu said. Sun Fu looked at the boy. “This is how we educate.” After that, Sun Fu untied the rope. It was almost dark now. He pressed down hard with both hands. There was a sudden Sun Fu transferred the fruit to his flatbed cart, and when eve- crack as he broke the boy’s middle finger. The boy screamed with rything was in order he untied his prisoner. Just as Sun Fu was a cry as sharp as a knife. Looking down, he saw the broken digit placing the coiled rope on top of the cart, he heard a dull thump flopping against the back of his hand and slumped to the ground behind him, and looked round to find the boy had crumpled to in shock. the ground. “After this,” he said, “I bet you won’t dare to steal “That’s the way to deal with thieves,” Sun Fu said. “If you again, will you?” don’t break one of their arms, at the very least you need to break As he spoke, Sun Fu mounted the bicycle at the front of a finger.” the cart and rode off down the broad highway, leaving the boy Saying this, Sun Fu leaned down and hauled the boy to his sprawled on the ground. Weakened by hunger and thirst, he had feet. He noticed the boy’s eyes were clamped shut with pain. collapsed as soon as he was untied. Now he just went on lying “Open your eyes!” he yelled. “Come on, open them.” there, his eyes slightly ajar, as though looking at the road, or as The boy opened his eyes, but he was still in agony and his though not looking at anything at all. He lay motionless for some mouth was twisted into a strange shape. Sun Fu kicked him in minutes, and then he slowly clambered to his feet and propped the legs. “Move it!” himself against a tree. Finally, he started shuffling down the road, Sun Fu grabbed him by the collar and shoved him in front of toward the west. the fruit stand. He rummaged around in a carton for some rope Westward the boy headed, his puny body swaying slightly in and tied him to the stall. “Shout,” he said to the boy, when he saw the twilight as he made his way out of town one step at a time. people watching. “Shout, ‘I’m a thief!’” Some witnessed his departure and knew he was the thief Sun The boy looked at Sun Fu. When he failed to comply, Sun Fu Fu had caught that afternoon, but they didn’t know his name or seized his left hand and took a tight grip on the left middle finger. where he had come from, and of course they had even less idea “I’m a thief!” the boy cried. where he was going. They saw how his middle finger dangled “That’s not loud enough,” Sun Fu said. “Louder.” against the back of his right hand, and watched as he trudged The boy looked at Sun Fu, then thrust his head forward and into the distant twilight and disappeared. yelled with all his might, “I’m a thief!” That evening, as usual, Sun Fu went to the little shop next Sun Fu saw how the blood vessels on the boy’s neck protruded. door to buy a pint of rice wine, then cooked himself a couple of He nodded. “That’s good,” he said. “That’s the way you need to simple dishes and sat down at the square dining table. At this shout.” hour of the day, the setting sun shone in through the window and All afternoon the autumn sun bathed the boy in light. His two seemed to warm the room up. Sun Fu sat there in the twilight, hands were tied behind his back and the rope was coiled around sipping his wine. his neck, so it was impossible for him to lower his head. He had no Many years ago, he had shared the room with a pretty woman choice but to stand there stiffly, his eyes on the highway. Beside and a five-year-old boy. In those days the room was constantly him lay the fruit that he had coveted, but with his neck fixed buzzing with noise and activity, and there was no end of things in place he could not even give it a glance. Whenever someone for the three of them to talk about. Sometimes he would simply walked by—any passer-by at all—at Sun Fu’s insistence he would sit inside and watch as his wife lit a fire outside in the coal stove. shout, “I’m a thief!” Their son would stick to her like toffee, tugging on her jacket and Sun Fu sat behind the fruit stand on his stool, watching the boy asking or telling her something in his shrill little voice. contentedly. He was no longer so indignant about losing an apple Later, one summer lunchtime, some boys ran in, shouting Sun and had begun to feel pleased with a job well done, because he had Fu’s name. They said his son had fallen into a pond not far away. captured and punished the apple-thief, and the punishment was He ran like a man possessed, his wife following behind with pierc- still not over. He made sure the boy yelled at the top of his voice ing wails. Before long it was all too clear that they had lost their every time somebody walked by. He had noticed the boy’s shouts son forever. That night they sat together sobbing and moaning in were drawing a constant flow of people to his fruit stand. the darkness and the stifling heat. Many looked with curiosity at the yelling boy. They found it Later on still, they began to regain their composure, carry- strange that a trussed-up captive would cry “I’m a thief” so vig- ing on their lives as they had before, and in this way several years orously. Sun Fu filled them in on the story, tirelessly explaining quickly passed. Then, one winter, an itinerant barber stopped out- how the boy had stolen an apple, how he’d been caught, and how side their house. Sun Fu’s wife went out, sat in the chair that the he’d been punished. “It’s for his own good,” Sun Fu would add. barber provided, closed her eyes in the bright sunshine, and let And he’d make clear the thinking behind this. “I want him to the barber wash and cut her hair, clean her ears and massage her understand he must never steal again.” arms and shoulders. She had never in her life felt so relaxed as she Then Sun Fu would turn to the boy. “Are you going to do any did that day: it was as though her whole body was melting away. more stealing?” he barked. Afterward she stuffed her clothes into a bag and waited until the The boy shook his head vehemently. Because his neck was sky was dark, then set off along the route the barber had taken. clamped so tight, he shook his head only slightly, but very quickly. Sun Fu was alone now, his past condensed into the faded “Did you see that?” Sun Fu said triumphantly. black-and-white photo that hung on the wall. It was a family por- All afternoon long, the boy shouted and yelled. His lips dried trait: himself, his wife and their son. The boy was in the middle, and cracked in the sun, and his voice grew hoarse. By dusk, the wearing a cotton cap several sizes too big. On the left, in braids, boy was unable to come out with a full-blown shout and could only his wife smiled blissfully. Sun Fu was on the right, his youthful make a scraping noise, but still he went on crying, “I’m a thief.” face brimming with life. 82 PROSPECT JULY 2014 Life

where it meets my child’s chin. The problem is, the moral agency of the child is subcon- tracted to his parent: it’s your responsibil- ity to keep your child from hitting my child. Life of But if you fail to discharge that duty, does Leith on life your child’s negative liberty (freedom from the mind being told off by other grown-ups) trump Sam Leith Anna Blundy my positive liberty to do what I deem nec- Libertarianism in the playground essary to safeguard my own child’s negative Say less liberty (freedom from being socked on jaw The scene in Little Dinosaurs was an ugly while queuing for dinosaur-shaped slide)? My supervisor—a senior training therapist one. The scene in Little Dinosaurs, to be I was feeling not unlike Thomas Aqui- who helps me with my patients—crossed fair, is always a pretty ugly one: it’s a “soft- nas as I conducted this miniature inquiry her ankles and adjusted her glasses. I was play” centre—a well-padded indoor-adven- into morals at my Formica table in front of reading out an account of one particular ture playground cum climbing frame my unquiet cappuccino. And like Aquinas, session. I was exhausted all over again just through which north London’s most ener- who placed a high value on contemplation, remembering it—what the patient had been getic under-sixes bound and romp and I conducted my inquiry inwardly because I wearing (bright things), how she’d started shriek while their dispirited parents sip did not much fancy wearing Mother B’s hot (loudly), what she’d said (a lot), what I’d milky coffees and listen out for the siren- chocolate as a hat. said (nothing useful), what I’d felt (help!), wail of minor injury. But it’s a peculiarly modern, late-cap- what I wished I’d said but didn’t think of Ordinarily, such shouting as there is italistic inquiry into morals to be having. (still haven’t) and everything else I could is directed at members of the pre-school In many other ages and societies, I think cram on to the page immediately after- community. But on this occasion, it was I’m safe in saying, the issue wouldn’t arise wards, hunched scribbling over the desk in mother-to-mother, and the vehemence of because the penumbra of parental respon- the institutional consulting room (quickly, the altercation was enough to blow spume sibility would be wider: any adults on hand before I forget). off the top of my cappuccino. Mother A had would, within reason, be presumed to have When I’m actually with a patient, I feel witnessed Mother B’s four-year-old sock- some responsibility for keeping the kids in quite good at building up a rapport and my ing her two-year-old on the jaw at the top of line. Mother B would see Mother A scold- interpretations seem insightful and under- the slide; and Mother B had, unfortunately, ing her child and—with a wince of apol- stood. Then, when reading out my notes in witnessed Mother A telling the four-year- ogy—would pile in and give her own child public, I find I was manically talkative, blind old exactly what would happen if he did it an even bigger talking-to. “It takes a village and wide of the mark. I say—“I haven’t quite again. to raise a child,” as the phrase popularised captured the essence... It wasn’t really like “How dare you shout at my son?” by Hillary Clinton has it. that… I mean, I think the patient knew what “He hit my boy!” But two things have changed. We have a I was getting at…” “It’s not your place to tell him off!” cult of the child, in which the positive lib- A slight smile from my supervisor and a “If you can’t control his behaviour some- erty of the kid to do what it damn wants is cough. A thunderstorm seems to be darken- one’s going to have to!” now more highly valued, as is its negative ing the sky outside. “You should say less,” “Whatever!” liberty to do so without hindrance from any she tells me. “I hardly spoke!” I complain “WhatEVER!” adult other than its own parent. (though in reality I said even more than And so on. There was not, in this And we have the atomisation of the idea I wrote down). She told me, kindly, that exchange, even the slightest hint of com- of communal or public space. There is no when she trained as a psychoanalyst her- promise or conciliation. Mother B was village: “there are individual men and self, her supervisor said the same every week, absolutely outraged that Mother A had women and there are families,” as Marga- once when she had spoken only twice in the presumed to discipline (or, as she clearly ret Thatcher had it. These aren’t our chil- reported session: “Say less.” thought, bully) her kid; and Mother A took dren: they are, like private possessions, my I used to be maddened at how little my the view that if someone else’s pet thug is children. They are extensions of the self. own analyst says, wondering why I was fork- going to punch your child you are entitled Other adults are no longer presumed allies ing out for him to sit there mulling over ideas to issue a mild corrective. Obviously there’s and proxies of the parents; rather, they are for decorating his house in France while I a world of moral greyscale when it comes to potential abusers. Christos Tsiolkas’s novel maundered on from the couch. “Oh, say the nature of said corrective, and its appro- The Slap hit that nerve exactly. ANYthing!” I thought, day after day, week priate level of mildness. But the row seemed The row in this case ended, to the relief after week. I found the silence hostile, a to dramatise one of the cruxes of modern of myself and my cappuccino, in a stand-off sneering presence behind me, even a poten- parenting. rather than a slap-off. Mother A sailed off tial attacker. It was years before I understood Isaiah Berlin’s useful popularisation of in high dudgeon. Mother B remained at the that this was my own projection and that it the difference between positive and nega- table, rehearsing her indignation. “She says had no bearing on present reality. Another tive freedoms is relevant. As it’s sometimes she’s ‘got her eye on him’? Stupid cow. Like, patient might have found silence soothing, expressed, your right to swing your arm she can see everywhere?” unjudgemental, even liberating (who are ends where it meets my chin. In this case Ah, the Panopticon! It’s all going on in these people?). it is subject to an extra layer of complica- Little Dinosaurs. A supervisor once told me to point out

tion: your child’s right to swing his arm ends Sam Leith is an Associate Editor of Prospect a patient’s anxiety during the silence, as in: DRY © DAN PROSPECT JULY 2014 LIFE 83

“The silence at the beginning of the session a cocktail party. A banjo trio were playing from Millionaires’ Row, the best seats in the seems to make you anxious.” I obeyed and in one corner; the assembled guests mur- house, among the grandees and the gate- the response was fascinating. The patient mured a soft and tinkling sound, like pearls crashers. All day we gigglingly deliriously remembered a magic box he would get out to clicking gently against champagne flutes. A happily trotted the triangle between the entertain the adults at parties when he was waiter appeared with a silver tray of frosted all you can eat buffet—where I discovered little. So, in his mind, I was an adult whose silver goblets. “Mint julep ma’am?” something called bread pudding, a fried benign attention he could only keep with his This was my introduction to the Ken- syrup-drenched cube—the betting window box of tricks. tucky Derby. It was a most marvellous and and the terrace that overlooked the finish When I first thought about training I swellegant weekend. My host was an old line. The juleps kept coming. I put $20 on almost decided it wasn’t for me—how could friend of mine, Molly, the daughter of a California Chrome to win. I keep quiet and let someone else talk for a newspaper proprietor and a member of the The sun shone glorious, the thorough- whole hour? It would be unprecedented. But Louisville great and good—or, as she put breds were sleek and skittish, the crowd it was during a talk by a therapist whose child it wryly, “the same six families who have surged forth and sang My Old Kentucky patient was driving her and himself mad that been going to each other’s parties for gen- Home, the stars and stripes fluttered behind I realised how active the silence can be. Far erations.” For two days I was swept up in a a marching band. The jockeys threaded from wondering whether to go for the ter- happy swirl of ice cream colours and candy- their mounts into the starting gate. They racotta or the slate tiles, my analyst is fully striped seersucker. were off! engaged, absorbing the unconscious com- I have always been skeptical of the mint I held a glass of julep in one hand and munications in my words, behind my words, julep. Bourbon, ice, mint, a ton of sugar. Too waved my fist with the other shouting in my silences. There is something like Der- sweet, too sickly. The first evening I surrep- “HOLD THE LEAD!” as the horses thun- rida’s “différance” that is being sought—the titiously put a slice of lemon in mine. “Don’t dered around the far corner into the home emotional reality between the thought and its let anyone see you do that!” said Molly stretch. California Chrome won! The man expression or, in this case, even between the laughing. Her sister Emily stirred her spear- standing next to me in a powder blue suit emotion and the defensive formulation of the mint into the crushed ice slushie and took a and alligator boots jumped up and down thought. It’s what psychoanalyst Christopher sip. “The secret is to steep the mint in the singing, “We’re rich, we’re rich!” A fight Bollas calls “the unthought known,” some- sugar syrup overnight.” I lost money back- broke out at the back of the terrace. “It’s the thing we can feel and acknowledge on some ing a horse called Sugar Shock that day and Derby!” said Molly. “You see a bit of every- level but cannot consciously remember, for- stuck to mimosas. thing.” I have never felt so happy or high. mulate or articulate. On the grand day of the big race we went Kentucky Derby weekend is about never The NHS usually provides an hour’s psy- to Emily’s for breakfast. A waiter swooped in slowing down. We went straight from the chotherapy once a week for a year. Obviously, with a welcoming silver salver of something racing track to Christie Brown’s legend- in this scenario, uncovering these tiny ten- he described, in deep southern gravel tones, ary annual party and her famous mint drils of emotional truth is a pretty tall order, as brown sugar bacon. Candied bacon, sticky- julep fountain. It was a supper party, which but one thing is for sure—you won’t uncover toffee porky; it made my teeth ache as much turned out—of course! Genius!—to be them if you keep butting in. Note to self: Shh. as fudge. I reached for another piece. breakfast. Chefs were flipping omelettes Anna Blundy is a writer training to be a There is nothing finer than an Ameri- to order. I had mine with ham and cheese psychotherapist. The situations described here can breakfast. There is nothing finer than and jalapenos. I piled the other half of my are composite and confidentiality has not been a southern American breakfast. Emily plate with waffles. I had to momentarily put breached served turkey hash and soufflé grits, ched- down my julep to ladle on whipped cream dared within and golden crust on top, a lit- and maple syrup and chocolate sauce. I was tle Tabasco kick. I had another julep to help still flying. Sugar and alcohol; elemental down a slice of Derby Pie. Pecans and but- energy. I saw the suave and charming David terscotch and more bourbon, as rich dense at a table and thanked him for his winning caramel sludgy brown as demerara mud. tip. He allowed a small modest smile. “Yes, I Matters of “Who do you like for the Derby?” I asked had a very good day too.” Turned out, Molly a handsome grey-haired man in a blue told me later, he owned a share in “the Cali- taste jacket, the only and universal question of fornian horse.” Wendell Steavenson the day. “Well I’m from California,” he said. Wendell Steavenson is “So I like the Californian horse.” an Associate Editor of Bourbon at brunch I have never had much of a sweet tooth. Prospect But then I have never properly experienced There is no finer place to find yourself on a sugar high before. We watched the races the first weekend in May than Ken- tucky. I landed in a throng of giant hat boxes bumping through the arrivals hall at Louisville air- port. Spring was green all over and the dogwood was in bloom. My taxi drove through stone gateposts and up a long curving drive to a grand and columned mansion and depos- ited me in the middle of

Watching the races at the Kentucky Derby 84 LIFE PROSPECT JULY 2014

nose, the eyes and the mouth, and makes our The government has been keen to encour- nose tingle when we eat too much mustard. age the growth of this form of alternative Trigeminal stimulation is not only immune finance in order to create a wider range of to the effects of cabin pressure—which is why places that businesses in particular can go to passengers often enjoy spicier food when they raise funds. Allowing private investors to pro- Wine are flying—but it also boosts our perception tect their P2P gains from tax using the Isa Barry Smith of aroma. Drinking Champagne throughout wrapper represents a big step up in the level the meal may help you to taste more of both. of official support for the P2P movement. Drinking at 30,000 feet Red wines, on the other hand remain a For relatively confident DIY investors, problem. Bitterness is accentuated at alti- P2P offers some very interesting ways to I recently flew to Istanbul and back on Brit- tude, and since astringency reinforces bit- diversify beyond the conventional range of ish Airways to test the flavours of food and terness it is best to avoid over-tannic wines. assets. It is possible to lend to individuals, wine at high altitude with a journalist from On the other hand, Malbec worked well in companies, renewable energy projects and Women’s Health. Many factors affect the the long-haul study and cabin crew have property developers. Levels of security vary appreciation of wine at 30,000 feet but wine reported customer satisfaction with small from personal guarantees of repayment to buyers for the airlines are becoming quite bottles of Malbec served in economy. What’s a registered charge on a property that can skilled at selecting those that work well in the explanation? be repossessed to recover the money owed. flight. How do they do it, and what are the Many of Argentina’s most highly- Annual returns to lenders before tax and fees principles underlying success and failure? regarded Malbecs are produced at very high typically range from around 5 per cent into When flying at high altitude, the dry altitutdes. The cabins of aeroplanes flying at double figures, with high single-figure rates atmosphere—which greatly reduces our 30,000 feet are pressurised as if one was at an not unusual. ability to perceive aroma—low cabin pres- altitude of 6,000 feet, and the famous Argen- For investors like me, who are already sure, cold temperatures and vibrations mean tinian winemaker Nicolas Catena’s Zapata lending via P2P platforms, the opportunity that even the best wines may not perform as grapes are grown at 5,700 feet. Could it be to take profits tax-free is obviously welcome. expected. In addition, recent research has that wines made at high altitude also per- The returns are very attractive in an age of demonstrated that white noise in the ears form better in those conditions? More testing rock-bottom interest rates but they inevita- suppresses the tongue’s ability to detect basic would need to be done, but next time the trol- bly come at a price—in our eagerness to get tastes like sweet and salty. At around 80 dec- ley comes round, ask for a high altitude wine. more for our money, it is all too easy to forget ibels—the level of noise on board a commer- If it works, remember you heard it here first. that a yield figure contains vital information cial aircraft in flight—the effect on sweet and Barry Smith is Director of the Institute of about risk as well as returns. Removing the salty is quite marked. This may be one rea- Philosophy, University of London need to deduct tax would help to make those son why passengers complain about aero- risks easier to bear. It would also end one of plane meals, despite the efforts some airlines the disadvantages that individual investors— have put into improving the food. The solu- the bedrock of the P2P movement—suffer tion is to wear noise-cancelling headphones, compared with organisations that lend. As which will do a lot to revive your plate and things stand, corporate lenders can deduct your wine. DIY losses on bad loans from their profits before But even with the headphones, wines are calculating tax, while individuals cannot. greatly affected by cabin pressure, as I found investor So far so good. But fitting P2P loans into out when drinking the same wines in the Andy Davis the world of conventional Isa investing will be lounge and in the air. Under low pressure the tricky. At the moment, my stocks and shares molecules are more diffuse, meaning they Peer-to-peer review Isa is with TD Direct Investing and enables have less impact on the olfactory receptors in me to buy shares listed on numerous stock the nose. Fruitier wines tend to fare better, In July, the new limit for Isa contributions exchanges around the world, as well as thou- and the more austere, noble wines that pas- that George Osborne announced in the sands of funds from hundreds of providers. sengers expect to find on the first class wine Budget will come into effect, meaning that But the only way to make a P2P loan is via list may not show well at all. Firm tannins we can all put in £15,000 a year and invest a particular provider’s own marketplace—if I in prestige wines tend to dominate at cabin it as we like in cash, stocks and shares. This want to lend to small businesses via Funding pressure, leaving them dry and fiercely bitter. latest jump in the tax-free Isa ceiling from Circle I have to go to Funding Circle’s web- Andy Sparrow of Bibendum wine mer- £11,880 underscores the remarkable ascent site. I can’t go to TD Direct Investing, sub- chants is responsible for buying wine for Brit- of the Isa in the years since the financial scribe my £15,000 and decide how much of it ish Airways’ first class list. To find out which crisis—the annual limit remained stuck at I want to lend via Funding Circle. bottles worked and which didn’t, he led a £7,000 from 1999 until April 2008, since Until the big Isa providers decide to long-haul tasting for wine writers. Sauvignon when it has more than doubled. include P2P loans within their wrappers, it Blanc, with its primary aromas and fresh It is likely that this latest boost will soon looks as though the only way to invest tax- acidity, was favoured among the whites and be followed by another. In his Budget speech free in P2P loans will be to go to the par- you will always find it on the list of options. Osborne also announced a consultation on ticular service’s website and use its own Isa Many of the more sought-after wines simply how to allow investors to hold peer-to-peer wrapper. And if that’s what happens, will I failed to deliver, but to everyone’s surprise, (P2P) loans in an Isa account. P2P lend- only be able to open one such Isa per year a Malbec that people did not comment on ing involves individuals and organisations and end up having to invest tax-free via just when tasted on the ground suddenly came banding together to advance loans to peo- one P2P platform? into its own when tasted at 30,000 feet. ple and companies that are looking to bor- As a DIY investor I want to be able to What should you look for when flying? row. The loans are assembled from dozens or diversify across shares, funds and P2P loans Champagnes tend to work well and so does hundreds of contributions via websites that of different sorts in one account. Until the Cava, and this may be due to the presence of bring together the two sides, check the credit- P2P industry can find a way to make that carbon dioxide in the bubbles. This is a stim- worthiness of the borrowers and take a fee for happen, it’s not going to take off. ulant for the trigeminal nerve that serves the arranging the deals. Andy Davis is Prospect’s investment columnist PROSPECT JULY  WWW.PROSPECTMAGAZINE.CO.UK/EVENTS 

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Events.indd 85 12/06/2014 19:02 PROSPECT JULY 2014 87 The generalist by Didymus Enigmas & puzzles Prime of life 12345 678910 Barry R Clarke

11 12 Professor Neuron was contemplating his life 13 14 in relation to the ages of three of his family members: Agatha, Babble and Clump. When Neuron gained his doctorate 28 years 15 16 ago, Babble was twice the age that Agatha was four years ago when Neuron became a professor. Even more interesting, he thought, is the fact that 17 18 19 when he retires 11 years from now, Agatha will be three times the age that Clump will be nine years

20 21 22 hence, when Neuron gets his free bus pass. A total of five digits is required to construct the 23 ages in years of Agatha, Babble and Clump, and 24 25 no digit is repeated. Each age is presently a non–

26 27 zero whole number and Agatha’s current age is a prime number. 28 29 30 What are the present ages of Agatha, Babble and 31 Clump?

32 33 34 Last month’s solution Box A starts with 5 chocolates, B with 8, and C with 9. Type (1) contains 3, 5, or 7; type (2) has 2, 6, or 8; and type (3) must be 1, 4, or 9. For the given conditions to be satisfied, 4, 6, or 35 36 37 8 chocolates must finish in A, 7 or 9 in B, and 2 or 7 in C. After the move C to B, the only even number possible is 6 in C. Reversing the moves, the sequence of numbers in C must be 9, 9, 6, 7. After 38 39 the A to C move, either 7 or 9 can be in B but 7 appears in C so it must be 9. Reversing the moves, the B sequence must be 8, 6, 9, 9. After the move A to C, box A can contain 4, 6, or 8. It cannot contain 4 because B already has a square number 9, and if it 40 41 contains 8 then after the C to B move it must have had 9 at the same time that B has 9 which is invalid. So box A finally has 6 and its sequence must have been 5, 7, 7, 6. For each box, the starting number in its sequence gives the solution. ACROSS 29 Controversial DJ and Pölten (5,7) 1 Game in which a long comedian who created 7 Cliché-ridden (8) Marcel Wave and Captain piece of string is looped 8 Battered bangers (4-2-3-4) How to enter over the fingers and passed Kremmen (5,7) from person to person 32 Suburb of Brighton and 9 Spem in Alium by Thomas Tallis, eg (5) The generalist prize (4,6) Hove—could be Adelstrop 10 Third movement of Suite The winner receives a hardback copy of 6 Obstinate disobedience or (9) 33 Polygraph (3,8) Bergamasque by Debussy Cornelius Ryan’s The Longest Day (Andre resistance (9) (5,2,4) 35 Westonbirt, Benenden or Deutsch, £50), which tells the story 13 Daryl Hannah’s role in the 11 Philadelphia (4,2,9,4) 1987 film based onCyrano Downe House, eg (5,6) of D-Day through first-hand accounts de Bergerac (7) 37 US inventor who patented 12 Throws goods overboard of those who were there. This new (9) 14 Spurs’ stadium (5,4,4) the first sewing-machine in illustrated edition of Ryan’s classic text— 1848 (5,4) 19 Location of Barbeau Peak which has sold more than 5m copies worldwide—is being 15 Drayman (3-6) and Cape Columbia (9,6) 16 Famous misquotation of a 38 Granny Smith’s pudding published to mark the 70th anniversay of the invasion of (5,8) 21 In Strasbourg or Normandy. It includes previously unpublished material, James Cagney line in the Luxembourg. Roland 1932 filmTaxi (3,5,3) 39 Stringed keyboard Garros, as opposed to such as a CD of Ryan’s interviews with veterans and with 17 Elisabeth Rousset, the instrument (7) Wimbledon? (8,5) Dwight Eisenhower. eponymous heroine of a 40 Erwin the fennec? (6,3) 23 Third in line of succession short story by Maupassant 41 On which to find a to the British throne (6,6) (5,2,4) Enigmas & puzzles prize supplicant (6,4) 25 Self-esteem (5-6) One winner receives a hardback copy of 18 Light dish served between the chief courses of a meal 26 Fortified capital of the old Infinitesimal: How a Dangerous Mathematical (9) DOWN province of Roussillon (9) Paradox Shaped the Modern World by 20 Anoraks (12) 1 For cornflakes or porridge 27 Segments of the UCLA’s Amir Alexander (Oneworld, £20). (6,4) breastbone (10) 22 Shorea negrosensis from the The book tells the story of the origins of Philippines (3,5) 2 xat? (3,6) 30 Inversion of the edge of calculus from its dramatic beginnings in the eyelid (9) 24 Eponymous wealthy 3 The fruits of a discussion? the 17th century when it was ruled to be heretical, and how buffoon of Nicholas Udall’s (10,5) 31 An Italian beggar (8) it came to lie at the heart of the disagreement between novel of c.1553 (5,7,7) 4 Dark-coloured areas 34 Proved beyond all doubt progressive scientists and the Church. 28 Fruits’ outermost layers surrounding nipples (7) (7) (8) 5 Federal state, capital St 36 One cubic metre (5) Rules Send your solution to [email protected] Last month’s solutions Across: or Crossword/Enigmas, Prospect, 25 Sackville Street, 1 Psittacine 6 Eisteddfod 13 Practise what you preach 14 Imbue 15 Llechwedd 16 Accad 17 Spree 18 Versing London W1S 3AX. Include your email and postal address. 19 Freesia 20 Wakefield 21 Sierra Leone 22 Anatocism 25 Red Ensign 30 Rüdesheimer 32 Hyperbole All entries must be received by 7th July. Winners will be 35 Almeida 36 Drummer 37 Dubai 38 Largo 39 Agnes Grey 40 Ocrea 41 Kind Hearts and Coronets 42 announced in our August issue. Sultanates 43 Democritus Down: Last month’s winners 1 Pipsissewa 2 Isambard Kingdom Brunel 3 Title leaf 4 C’est la vie 5 New Hebrides 7 Ivy League 8 Tour de force 9 Dardanelles 10 Frances Hodgson Burnett 10 Dehydrated 12 Das heisst 23 Tessie O’Shea 24 Che The generalist: Reginald Birch, Devon sarà, sarà 26 Ephemeridae 27 Great Lakes 28 Trousseau 29 Demitasses 31 Midinette 33 Perry Como 34 Enigmas & puzzles: George Stein, Fife Radio Four Download a PDF of this page at www.prospectmagazine.co.uk ©REX/COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION so completeso when as they to appear pos whichparade of riches, in their eye never is chief enjoyment in the consists of riches “With the of rich the people, greater part , 1776: Nations Adam Smith writes in TheWealth of remarkablybeen impudent.” other examples of quick advancement have fortune. Your Walpole friend Robert and all man evermodest did or ever will make his dence and the third, impudence. still, No impudence, is riches and the impu is second power to do good... of duty to rich, thatsort be it may in one’s be with you, the but as world and is will be, ’tis a to share glorious so pleased a povertybe try by reducing yourself to a garret, I should was to restore to possible liberty your coun we hear puts us in remembrance of it. If it money. Everything we and everything see not enlarge“I need upon the advantages of her husband in 1714: WortleyLady Mary Montagu writes to those from who hewithholds spiritual good.” commonlyfore gives God our to Lord riches cause, nor anything that else there good; is it neither material, formal, efficient, nor final Wealthtion of riches. in has regardedis in the acquisi that no labour, pain, or risk Yet men eager are after so it, understanding, etc? wisdom, to the of gifts as the mind, health, etc?—nay, what it is beauty,as with gifts, corporal Word—what, in comparison with itincomparison is God’s bestowed on mankind. What God has the gift that least the thing smallest on Earth, Wealth required... will be is much given, is of him much great account; for to whom rich, must yield a strict and ery. Therefore, they that are erty, great and distress mis wars, poverty, through pov wars,dissension, through throughpride, dissension, greatcomes pride, through forof sins; through wealth there all are manner also “Where great wealth is, Luther observes: Martin posthumously in 1566, In 88 “The first necessary qualification for necessary first “The Table Talk, published - - - A cartoon showsA cartoon money pouring into Andrew Carnegie’s pockets, 1900s Extracts from memoirs and diaries, chosen by chosen Extracts Ian fromandIrvine memoirs diaries, - - - - also the helpfulalso influence... widest by means functions own of his life to the has utmost, who,man richest is having perfected the of happyber and noble human that beings; which therichest nourishes greatest num and joy, of admiration. That country the is Life,LIFE. including all its powers of love THEREstated. IS NO WEALTH BUT topapers leave this one great fact clearly inclosing the ofintroductory“I desire series on 1860 the meditations his of riches: use John, Unto Last Ruskin concludes This ous to the state.” whole progress and action they are danger irritate, then corrupt throughout it; so their dinately wealthy. cause poverty, Riches then after many, a or indeed few, have grown inor were very but none hath poor: long stood affluence, and while on the contrarymost while no citizen of them was in very great Manydeepest. republics have for stood ages, where as theerty; sunbrightest is the shade is there in the also is train of it excessive pov “Now wherever there excessive is wealth, : Conversations Imaginary In 1824, Walter Savage writes Landor in but themselves.”nobody can possess those decisivesess marks of opulence which The super-rich The waywewere

- - - - faeces of Hell.’”faeces ancient Babylonian doctrine, gold ‘the is instinctualscious life... Even according to the of uncon personification the repressed and the devil nothing certainly is than else turns into excrement after departure, his gold which the devil gives paramours his relationship We with dirt. know that the money brought is into the intimate most thinking, in dreams and in neuroses— and in unconscious superstitions, tales, in the ancient in myths, civilisations, fairy- of thought have predominated or persist— extensive of all… Wherever archaic modes dissimilar, so seem to appear the be most interest in money and of defecation, which between connections “The the complexes of Sigmund Freud writes in 1908: 1919 he had donated all but $30m. was $475m, but by the death time of his in at 35.”business of permanenthope recovery. I will resign time,the must degrade me beyond shortest wholly upon the way to make more money in and cares withness of my most thoughts continue much longer overwhelmed by busi- thewill be elevating most initscharacter. To carefulI should that be to choose life which In his finalIn his Carnegie’syears, net worth push inordinately; therefore Whatever I engage in I must than the worship of money! try! No more idol is debasing of the worst of idola species amassing of wealth one is must have no idol and the ance of literary men... Man tion, making the acquaint shall get a thorough educa us settle in Oxford and I ever, except for others. Let for business aside us cast for benevolent Let purposes! spend the surplus each year myto increase fortune, but never earn, make no effort annum! Beyond this I need no greater than $50,000 per to take“I propose anincome plans: his to about himself 33,aged he wrote a memo firm in the world. In 1868, the largest iron and steel America at 13 and created Andrew went Carnegie to lives of others.” over possessions, of his the PROSPECT JULY PROSPECT 2014 - - - - -