Kobi Michael and Yoel Guzansky The Arab World on the Road to State Failure COVER The Arab World on the Road to State Failure Kobi Michael and Yoel Guzansky Institute for National Security Studies The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), incorporating the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, was founded in 2006. The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies is first, to conduct basic research that meets the highest academic standards on matters related to Israel’s national security as well as Middle East regional and international security affairs. Second, the Institute aims to contribute to the public debate and governmental deliberation of issues that are – or should be – at the top of Israel’s national security agenda. INSS seeks to address Israeli decision makers and policymakers, the defense establishment, public opinion makers, the academic community in Israel and abroad, and the general public. INSS publishes research that it deems worthy of public attention, while it maintains a strict policy of non-partisanship. The opinions expressed in this publication are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its trustees, boards, research staff, or the organizations and individuals that support its research. The Arab World on the Road to State Failure Kobi Michael and Yoel Guzansky המרחב הערבי בנתיב הכישלון המדינתי קובי מיכאל ויואל גוז‘נסקי Graphic design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber Cover design: Michal Semo-Kovetz Cover Photo: Lines for food distribution in the Yarmouk refugee camp in Damascus, January 31, 2014. Photo by United Nations Relief and Works Agency via Getty Images. 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ISBN 978-965-92620-2-1 Contents Preface 7 Introduction 9 1 The Phenomenon of the Failed State: Theoretical Aspects and an Overview 17 What is a Failed State? 17 Failed States and Their Effect on Other Countries 26 The Growing Power of Non-State Actors 30 The Intervention of Foreign Players and the Wars Fought by Agents 34 Failed States—A Regional and Global Threat 37 2 International Efforts to Assist Failed States — An Empirical Evaluation 41 Background 41 Lessons to be Learned from International Interventions to Reconstruct Failed States 42 International Assistance Prolongs Crises in Failed States and Regions of Confrontation 45 Recommendations for Dealing with International Intervention Failures in Failed States 47 3 The Failure of Intelligence Agencies and Academic Research 53 Why Did Intelligence Agencies and Academia Fail to Predict the Upheaval in the Middle East? 53 The Arab Human Development Report — The Current State of Affairs and Unheeded Warnings 55 The Main Lessons for Intelligence Agencies and Research 60 4 The Arab World Following the Regional Upheaval 65 Structural Instability from a Historical Perspective 65 The Process of Collapse: From Nation-State to Failed State 70 Monarchies in the Middle East—Islands of Stability? 75 Future Trends in the Wake of the Regional Upheaval 76 5 The Circles of State Failure 81 The Outer Circle 81 Iraq 81 The Iranian influence in Iraq 82 The accelerated path to state failure 84 Yemen 87 Background and state failure processes 87 Characteristics of Yemen’s state failure 89 Characteristics of the Iranian involvement in Yemen and responses to it 92 Libya 96 The Neighboring Circle 101 Syria 101 Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula 107 Lebanon 113 Jordan 117 The Inner Circle 121 The Palestinian Authority 121 Background 121 The characteristics of the Palestinian Authority’s state failure 122 The takeover of the Gaza Strip by Hamas and the splitting of the Palestinian Authority 127 Scenarios for the possible disintegration of the Palestinian Authority 129 Is the Palestinian Authority liable to become a failed Palestinian state? 130 6 The Strategic Implications for Israel 133 7 Conclusion 139 Notes 147 Preface This book is the outcome of a long-term research project that began at the peak of the upheaval being experienced in the Arab world and ended in November 2015. In this edition, we have chosen to add only a few details, with the approval of our dedicated and professional editor, Yoav Tadmor. This research attempts to expand and deepen our understanding of the turmoil being experienced in the Arab world since late 2010. One of its predominant and most serious manifestations is the acceleration of processes of state failure and the disintegration of the Arab nation-states. This phenomenon is ongoing and still taking shape, and therefore the findings of this study should be viewed as an analysis of the reality as developed by the time of writing this book. This is clearly not the endpoint of the process, and many more books are likely to be written on this subject in coming years. We made use of numerous sources for this research: the internet and social networks, articles, and books as well as insights gathered at conferences in Israel and abroad and in various INSS forums of researchers, policy makers, and decision makers from Israel and abroad. We chose to transliterate Arabic terms and names into a form that would be more comfortable for the reader and therefore have not always strictly adhered to the rules of transliteration. The efforts that went into this book were made possible by Major General (res.) Amos Yadlin, director of INSS, and Brigadier General (res.) Udi Dekel, managing director of INSS, who saw the need to advance the theoretical and empirical research on this issue. A special thanks goes to Dr. Anat Kurz, Brigadier General (ret.) Shlomo Brom, and Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss, who are responsible for INSS’s research program, for their constant support and guidance, and to Nikki Littman and Dr. Ela Greenberg for the editing and production of the book. We are also indebted to INSS researchers Dr. Ofir Winter and Dr. Carmit Valensi, whose comments on a previous draft were immensely helpful, and to Ben Abarbanel, our research assistant, who helped us deal with the mountain of books, articles, and newspaper reports. Finally, despite the many good people who helped us in this research both directly and indirectly, any remaining errors are solely our own. Introduction This book examines the phenomenon of the failed state in the Arab world. In order to understand the systemic and regional implications of this phenomenon, which has spread throughout the Arab world and intensified as a result of the past six years of regional upheaval, we make use of the theoretical and empirical infrastructures in the relevant professional literature as well as a conceptual infrastructure constructed specifically for this study. Using this infrastructure, we describe the various possible trends in the future development of the phenomenon and analyze its effect on the region as a whole and on Israel in particular. The phenomenon of the failed state is not a new one. It existed in the Arab world even before the current upheaval in the region. However, now, as a result of the upheaval, the situation of those states that were already in various stages of failure has deteriorated yet further. The Arab upheaval has undermined the geopolitical logic that structures the Arab world which rests on the organization of states according to the territorial nation-state model comprising an authoritative central government and clear borders. Several of these states, such as Yemen, Libya, and Syria, no longer exist in the format of coherent states with a central government capable of imposing its authority over most parts of its territory. These states have become arenas of violent and bloody conflict. The weakness of their central governments has led to the expansion of ungoverned peripheries and the blurring of borders, a development that has enabled jihadi organizations and foreign elements to penetrate their territory and create military and political bases of operation. These organizations are challenging central governments and systematically undermining state structures. These changes are having a global impact: they are damaging global security and deepening the rifts between the superpowers (such as between the United States and Russia as a result of NATO’s intervention in Libya and the Russian intervention in Syria) and between the superpowers and their allies in the region (the crises in US-Egyptian and US-Saudi Arabian relations are good examples) and have social, economic, and political repercussions 10 I The Arab World on the Road to State Failure as a result of the millions of refugees who have fled the areas of conflict and sought asylum in Europe. The failed states are therefore not simply a local problem but constitute a regional and international challenge due to the instability they export to other regions, both near and far, and the fact that they have become a setting for regional and international confrontation. Following the agreements signed by the superpowers in 1916, arbitrary borders were drawn for the Middle East which grouped together various ethnic groups, rival religions, and, in some cases, speakers of different languages. The resulting frameworks had only weak national identities, and their territories were often not suited to their populations. These new states were also characterized by weak governance and regimes that lacked legitimacy. Most of the Arab countries in the region did not manage to shape a solid and consensual national ethos during their years of existence and were therefore also unable to reduce religious, national, and ethnic tensions. The tension and rifts in each state fed the feelings of frustration and provided fertile ground for social protest, which in 2011 became a regional phenomenon.