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ANALYSIS of the TECHNOLOGICAL and SPATIAL NEEDS of the MULTIMODAL FREIGHT TERMINAL RAIL BALTICA at MUUGA HARBOUR (MCTRB) Work Package 1

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ANALYSIS of the TECHNOLOGICAL and SPATIAL NEEDS of the MULTIMODAL FREIGHT TERMINAL RAIL BALTICA at MUUGA HARBOUR (MCTRB) Work Package 1 ANALYSIS OF THE TECHNOLOGICAL AND SPATIAL NEEDS OF THE MULTIMODAL FREIGHT TERMINAL RAIL BALTICA AT MUUGA HARBOUR (MCTRB) Work Package 1 Contact details of the Client’s representative Rail Baltic Estonia OÜ Registry number: 12734109 Address: Harju tn 11, 15072 Tallinn, Estonia Contact person: Vaiko Eggert [email protected] Contact details of Civitta’s representative Civitta Eesti AS Registry number: 11092241 Address: Lõõtsa 8, 10320 Tallinn, Estonia DB Engineering & Consulting GmbH Address: Köpenicker Straße 31, 10179 Berlin, Germany Report 2018 1 Table of Contents SNAPSHOT TO THE KEY FINDINGS OF THE WP1 STUDY ...................................................................................... 4 1. INTRO TO THE FUTURE TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................... 7 Future Transportation Development ....................................................................................................7 2. RAIL BALTICA AND THE TEN-T NETWORK ............................................................................................. 12 3. PORT OF MUUGA ........................................................................................................................... 15 Role of Muuga Harbour ..................................................................................................................... 15 4. COMPETING CORRIDORS OF THE MUUGA CATCHMENT AREA .................................................................... 21 Evaluation of appropriate multimodal transport corridors ............................................................... 21 Definition of the catchment area of Muuga Harbour .................................................................. 21 Multimodal transport corridors: approach to competitiveness .................................................. 22 North-South/South-North direction corridors ............................................................................. 23 4.1.3.1. Freight flows related to Germany ................................................................................................ 25 East-West/West-East direction corridors..................................................................................... 28 Asia-related corridors ................................................................................................................... 30 4.1.5.1. Forecast dynamics of Asia-related container transport in the Rail Baltica and Port of Muuga catchment area ......................................................................................................................................... 35 4.1.5.2. Partnership networks ................................................................................................................... 36 5. MODELLING RESULTS – EVALUATION OF FREIGHT AND TRAFFIC FLOWS ......................................................... 38 Description of the modelling methodology ....................................................................................... 38 Freight flow demand analysis ............................................................................................................ 41 Total freight flows along the Estonian section of the 1435 mm gauge RB railway ...................... 41 Total freight flows passing through Muuga Harbour ................................................................... 44 Scenarios ...................................................................................................................................... 46 Terminal facilities expectations ......................................................................................................... 50 6. ANNEXES ...................................................................................................................................... 52 Data used ........................................................................................................................................... 52 Global macroeconomic overview ...................................................................................................... 54 Role of transport in economic development ..................................................................................... 57 Potential logistics infrastructure and factors affecting demand ....................................................... 58 Profiles of catchment area countries: economic development and trade ........................................ 63 Estonia .......................................................................................................................................... 63 Finland .......................................................................................................................................... 79 Latvia ............................................................................................................................................ 85 Lithuania ....................................................................................................................................... 97 Northwest Russia ....................................................................................................................... 108 2 Potential for catchment area development in the forecasting period (2025-2055) ................. 117 Comparison of ports ........................................................................................................................ 120 Multimodal transport corridors ....................................................................................................... 123 Competitive situation analysis ................................................................................................... 123 6.7.1.1. Competing corridors for North-South/South-North traffic ........................................................ 124 6.7.1.2. Competing corridors for East-West/West-East traffic ............................................................... 128 6.7.1.3. Competing corridors for Asia-related transcontinental cargoes ............................................... 132 Methodology of freight flow and traffic evaluation ........................................................................ 136 OD table for 2015 ....................................................................................................................... 136 Commodities and freight types .................................................................................................. 137 Forecast of development trends (for 2025-2055) by freight groups ......................................... 139 Methodology for OD tables for future years ............................................................................. 143 Modal split formulas used in transport model........................................................................... 143 Modelling assumptions .............................................................................................................. 144 ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................................. 148 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................. 150 LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................... 153 3 Snapshot to the key findings of the WP1 study The current report reflects the findings of the Muuga Multimodal Freight Terminal Rail Baltica (MCTRB) Work Package 1 “Analysis of the existing situation and prognosis of freight flow demands in the period of 2025-2055”. WP1 is a basis for the technical profiling of the terminal together with the cost-benefit analysis. Rail Baltica (RB) is an international railway corridor and part of TEN-T core network, and it is designed to connect the Baltics with the rest of Europe by European standard gauge (1435 mm). The route will stretch from the Polish/Lithuanian border to Tallinn. In Tallinn, RB will connect to Muuga Harbour, which is specialised in handling transit origin goods and is one of the biggest cargo harbours in the region. The construction of Rail Baltica in the proximity of the main cargo harbour of Estonia is regarded as an opportunity to develop a multi-modal freight terminal (MCTRB) to support the North Sea-Baltic Core Network Corridor. The current study defines the opportunities and barriers in the implementation of the MCTRB project from a transport and economic perspective, provides a benchmark of alternative routes and competition in the area, calculates cargo flows volumes and structure forecast, and gives recommendations on project implementation. Connecting the largest cargo harbour of Estonia with the trans-European transport network opens up a new paradigm of cargo movement on the North-South axis Muuga Harbour is the main cargo harbour of the Port of Tallinn. It mainly handles crude oil and oil products (liquid bulk constituted 56 % in 2016), and it also serves dry bulk (26 %), containers (15 %) and other types of cargo. The facilities of the harbour include six liquid bulk terminals, two multi-purpose terminals, container and ro-ro terminals, and dry bulk, grain, steel and coal terminals. Muuga mainly specialises in handling transit goods, which in all account for 80 % of the total transit volume of the Port of Tallinn and around 70 % of all transit cargo passing through
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