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Methods of Monte Carlo Simulation II
Methods of Monte Carlo Simulation II Ulm University Institute of Stochastics Lecture Notes Dr. Tim Brereton Summer Term 2014 Ulm, 2014 2 Contents 1 SomeSimpleStochasticProcesses 7 1.1 StochasticProcesses . 7 1.2 RandomWalks .......................... 7 1.2.1 BernoulliProcesses . 7 1.2.2 RandomWalks ...................... 10 1.2.3 ProbabilitiesofRandomWalks . 13 1.2.4 Distribution of Xn .................... 13 1.2.5 FirstPassageTime . 14 2 Estimators 17 2.1 Bias, Variance, the Central Limit Theorem and Mean Square Error................................ 19 2.2 Non-AsymptoticErrorBounds. 22 2.3 Big O and Little o Notation ................... 23 3 Markov Chains 25 3.1 SimulatingMarkovChains . 28 3.1.1 Drawing from a Discrete Uniform Distribution . 28 3.1.2 Drawing From A Discrete Distribution on a Small State Space ........................... 28 3.1.3 SimulatingaMarkovChain . 28 3.2 Communication .......................... 29 3.3 TheStrongMarkovProperty . 30 3.4 RecurrenceandTransience . 31 3.4.1 RecurrenceofRandomWalks . 33 3.5 InvariantDistributions . 34 3.6 LimitingDistribution. 36 3.7 Reversibility............................ 37 4 The Poisson Process 39 4.1 Point Processes on [0, )..................... 39 ∞ 3 4 CONTENTS 4.2 PoissonProcess .......................... 41 4.2.1 Order Statistics and the Distribution of Arrival Times 44 4.2.2 DistributionofArrivalTimes . 45 4.3 SimulatingPoissonProcesses. 46 4.3.1 Using the Infinitesimal Definition to Simulate Approx- imately .......................... 46 4.3.2 SimulatingtheArrivalTimes . 47 4.3.3 SimulatingtheInter-ArrivalTimes . 48 4.4 InhomogenousPoissonProcesses. 48 4.5 Simulating an Inhomogenous Poisson Process . 49 4.5.1 Acceptance-Rejection. 49 4.5.2 Infinitesimal Approach (Approximate) . 50 4.6 CompoundPoissonProcesses . 51 5 ContinuousTimeMarkovChains 53 5.1 TransitionFunction. 53 5.2 InfinitesimalGenerator . 54 5.3 ContinuousTimeMarkovChains . -
Image Segmentation Combining Markov Random Fields and Dirichlet Processes
ANR meeting Image segmentation combining Markov Random Fields and Dirichlet Processes Jessica SODJO IMS, Groupe Signal Image, Talence Encadrants : A. Giremus, J.-F. Giovannelli, F. Caron, N. Dobigeon Jessica SODJO ANR meeting 1 / 28 ANR meeting Plan 1 Introduction 2 Segmentation using DP models Mixed MRF / DP model Inference : Swendsen-Wang algorithm 3 Hierarchical segmentation with shared classes Principle HDP theory 4 Conclusion and perspective Jessica SODJO ANR meeting 2 / 28 ANR meeting Introduction Segmentation – partition of an image in K homogeneous regions called classes – label the pixels : pixel i $ zi 2 f1;:::; K g Bayesian approach – prior on the distribution of the pixels – all the pixels in a class have the same distribution characterized by a parameter vector Uk – Markov Random Fields (MRF) : exploit the similarity of pixels in the same neighbourhood Constraint : K must be fixed a priori Idea : use the BNP models to directly estimate K Jessica SODJO ANR meeting 3 / 28 ANR meeting Segmentation using DP models Plan 1 Introduction 2 Segmentation using DP models Mixed MRF / DP model Inference : Swendsen-Wang algorithm 3 Hierarchical segmentation with shared classes Principle HDP theory 4 Conclusion and perspective Jessica SODJO ANR meeting 4 / 28 ANR meeting Segmentation using DP models Notations – N is the number of pixels – Y is the observed image – Z = fz1;:::; zN g – Π = fA1;:::; AK g is a partition and m = fm1;:::; mK g with mk = jAk j A1 A2 m1 = 1 m2 = 5 A3 m3 = 6 mK = 4 AK FIGURE: Example of partition Jessica SODJO ANR -
12 : Conditional Random Fields 1 Hidden Markov Model
10-708: Probabilistic Graphical Models 10-708, Spring 2014 12 : Conditional Random Fields Lecturer: Eric P. Xing Scribes: Qin Gao, Siheng Chen 1 Hidden Markov Model 1.1 General parametric form In hidden Markov model (HMM), we have three sets of parameters, j i transition probability matrix A : p(yt = 1jyt−1 = 1) = ai;j; initialprobabilities : p(y1) ∼ Multinomial(π1; π2; :::; πM ); i emission probabilities : p(xtjyt) ∼ Multinomial(bi;1; bi;2; :::; bi;K ): 1.2 Inference k k The inference can be done with forward algorithm which computes αt ≡ µt−1!t(k) = P (x1; :::; xt−1; xt; yt = 1) recursively by k k X i αt = p(xtjyt = 1) αt−1ai;k; (1) i k k and the backward algorithm which computes βt ≡ µt t+1(k) = P (xt+1; :::; xT jyt = 1) recursively by k X i i βt = ak;ip(xt+1jyt+1 = 1)βt+1: (2) i Another key quantity is the conditional probability of any hidden state given the entire sequence, which can be computed by the dot product of forward message and backward message by, i i i i X i;j γt = p(yt = 1jx1:T ) / αtβt = ξt ; (3) j where we define, i;j i j ξt = p(yt = 1; yt−1 = 1; x1:T ); i j / µt−1!t(yt = 1)µt t+1(yt+1 = 1)p(xt+1jyt+1)p(yt+1jyt); i j i = αtβt+1ai;jp(xt+1jyt+1 = 1): The implementation in Matlab can be vectorized by using, i Bt(i) = p(xtjyt = 1); j i A(i; j) = p(yt+1 = 1jyt = 1): 1 2 12 : Conditional Random Fields The relation of those quantities can be simply written in pseudocode as, T αt = (A αt−1): ∗ Bt; βt = A(βt+1: ∗ Bt+1); T ξt = (αt(βt+1: ∗ Bt+1) ): ∗ A; γt = αt: ∗ βt: 1.3 Learning 1.3.1 Supervised Learning The supervised learning is trivial if only we know the true state path. -
Lecturenotes 4 MCMC I – Contents
Lecturenotes 4 MCMC I – Contents 1. Statistical Physics and Potts Models 2. Sampling and Re-weighting 3. Importance Sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo 4. The Metropolis Algorithm 5. The Heatbath Algorithm (Gibbs Sampler) 6. Start and Equilibration 7. Energy Checks 8. Specific Heat 1 Statistical Physics and Potts Model MC simulations of systems described by the Gibbs canonical ensemble aim at calculating estimators of physical observables at a temperature T . In the following we choose units so that β = 1/T and consider the calculation of the expectation value of an observable O. Mathematically all systems on a computer are discrete, because a finite word length has to be used. Hence, K X (k) Ob = Ob(β) = hOi = Z−1 O(k) e−β E (1) k=1 K X (k) where Z = Z(β) = e−β E (2) k=1 is the partition function. The index k = 1,...,K labels all configurations (or microstates) of the system, and E(k) is the (internal) energy of configuration k. To distinguish the configuration index from other indices, it is put in parenthesis. 2 We introduce generalized Potts models in an external magnetic field on d- dimensional hypercubic lattices with periodic boundary conditions. Without being overly complicated, these models are general enough to illustrate the essential features we are interested in. In addition, various subcases of these models are by themselves of physical interest. Generalizations of the algorithmic concepts to other models are straightforward, although technical complications may arise. We define the energy function of the system by (k) (k) (k) −β E = −β E0 + HM (3) where (k) X (k) (k) (k) (k) 2 d N E = −2 J (q , q ) δ(q , q ) + (4) 0 ij i j i j q hiji N 1 for qi = qj (k) X (k) with δ(qi, qj) = and M = 2 δ(1, qi ) . -
Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach Scaling Limits in Models of Statistical Mechanics
Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach Report No. 41/2018 DOI: 10.4171/OWR/2018/41 Scaling Limits in Models of Statistical Mechanics Organised by Dmitry Ioffe, Haifa Gady Kozma, Rehovot Fabio Toninelli, Lyon 9 September – 15 September 2018 Abstract. This conference (part of a long running series) aims to cover the interplay between probability and mathematical statistical mechanics. Specific topics addressed during the 22 talks include: Universality and critical phenomena, disordered models, Gaussian free field (GFF), random planar graphs and unimodular planar maps, reinforced random walks and non-linear σ-models, non-equilibrium dynamics. Less stress is given to topics which have running series of Oberwolfach conferences devoted to them specifically, such as random matrices or integrable models and KPZ universality class. There were 50 participants, including 9 postdocs and graduate students, working in diverse intertwining areas of probability, statistical mechanics and mathematical physics. Subject classification: MSC: 60,82; IMU: 10,13. Introduction by the Organisers This workshop was a sequel to a MFO conference, by the same organizers, which took place in 2015. More broadly, it is a sequel to MFO conferences in 2006, 2009 and 2012, organised by Ken Alexander, Marek Biskup, Remco van der Hofstad and Vladas Sidoravicius. The main focus of the conference remained on probabilistic and analytic methods of non-integrable statistical mechanics. With respect to the previous editions, greater emphasis was put on statistical mechanics models on groups and general graphs, as a lot has happened in this arena recently. The list of 50 participants reflects our attempts to maintain an optimal balance between diverse fields, leading experts and promising young researchers. -
The Ising Model
The Ising Model Today we will switch topics and discuss one of the most studied models in statistical physics the Ising Model • Some applications: – Magnetism (the original application) – Liquid-gas transition – Binary alloys (can be generalized to multiple components) • Onsager solved the 2D square lattice (1D is easy!) • Used to develop renormalization group theory of phase transitions in 1970’s. • Critical slowing down and “cluster methods”. Figures from Landau and Binder (LB), MC Simulations in Statistical Physics, 2000. Atomic Scale Simulation 1 The Model • Consider a lattice with L2 sites and their connectivity (e.g. a square lattice). • Each lattice site has a single spin variable: si = ±1. • With magnetic field h, the energy is: N −β H H = −∑ Jijsis j − ∑ hisi and Z = ∑ e ( i, j ) i=1 • J is the nearest neighbors (i,j) coupling: – J > 0 ferromagnetic. – J < 0 antiferromagnetic. • Picture of spins at the critical temperature Tc. (Note that connected (percolated) clusters.) Atomic Scale Simulation 2 Mapping liquid-gas to Ising • For liquid-gas transition let n(r) be the density at lattice site r and have two values n(r)=(0,1). E = ∑ vijnin j + µ∑ni (i, j) i • Let’s map this into the Ising model spin variables: 1 s = 2n − 1 or n = s + 1 2 ( ) v v + µ H s s ( ) s c = ∑ i j + ∑ i + 4 (i, j) 2 i J = −v / 4 h = −(v + µ) / 2 1 1 1 M = s n = n = M + 1 N ∑ i N ∑ i 2 ( ) i i Atomic Scale Simulation 3 JAVA Ising applet http://physics.weber.edu/schroeder/software/demos/IsingModel.html Dynamically runs using heat bath algorithm. -
Pdf File of Second Edition, January 2018
Probability on Graphs Random Processes on Graphs and Lattices Second Edition, 2018 GEOFFREY GRIMMETT Statistical Laboratory University of Cambridge copyright Geoffrey Grimmett Geoffrey Grimmett Statistical Laboratory Centre for Mathematical Sciences University of Cambridge Wilberforce Road Cambridge CB3 0WB United Kingdom 2000 MSC: (Primary) 60K35, 82B20, (Secondary) 05C80, 82B43, 82C22 With 56 Figures copyright Geoffrey Grimmett Contents Preface ix 1 Random Walks on Graphs 1 1.1 Random Walks and Reversible Markov Chains 1 1.2 Electrical Networks 3 1.3 FlowsandEnergy 8 1.4 RecurrenceandResistance 11 1.5 Polya's Theorem 14 1.6 GraphTheory 16 1.7 Exercises 18 2 Uniform Spanning Tree 21 2.1 De®nition 21 2.2 Wilson's Algorithm 23 2.3 Weak Limits on Lattices 28 2.4 Uniform Forest 31 2.5 Schramm±LownerEvolutionsÈ 32 2.6 Exercises 36 3 Percolation and Self-Avoiding Walks 39 3.1 PercolationandPhaseTransition 39 3.2 Self-Avoiding Walks 42 3.3 ConnectiveConstantoftheHexagonalLattice 45 3.4 CoupledPercolation 53 3.5 Oriented Percolation 53 3.6 Exercises 56 4 Association and In¯uence 59 4.1 Holley Inequality 59 4.2 FKG Inequality 62 4.3 BK Inequalitycopyright Geoffrey Grimmett63 vi Contents 4.4 HoeffdingInequality 65 4.5 In¯uenceforProductMeasures 67 4.6 ProofsofIn¯uenceTheorems 72 4.7 Russo'sFormulaandSharpThresholds 80 4.8 Exercises 83 5 Further Percolation 86 5.1 Subcritical Phase 86 5.2 Supercritical Phase 90 5.3 UniquenessoftheIn®niteCluster 96 5.4 Phase Transition 99 5.5 OpenPathsinAnnuli 103 5.6 The Critical Probability in Two Dimensions 107 -
Mean Field Methods for Classification with Gaussian Processes
Mean field methods for classification with Gaussian processes Manfred Opper Neural Computing Research Group Division of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science Aston University Birmingham B4 7ET, UK. opperm~aston.ac.uk Ole Winther Theoretical Physics II, Lund University, S6lvegatan 14 A S-223 62 Lund, Sweden CONNECT, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen Blegdamsvej 17, 2100 Copenhagen 0, Denmark winther~thep.lu.se Abstract We discuss the application of TAP mean field methods known from the Statistical Mechanics of disordered systems to Bayesian classifi cation models with Gaussian processes. In contrast to previous ap proaches, no knowledge about the distribution of inputs is needed. Simulation results for the Sonar data set are given. 1 Modeling with Gaussian Processes Bayesian models which are based on Gaussian prior distributions on function spaces are promising non-parametric statistical tools. They have been recently introduced into the Neural Computation community (Neal 1996, Williams & Rasmussen 1996, Mackay 1997). To give their basic definition, we assume that the likelihood of the output or target variable T for a given input s E RN can be written in the form p(Tlh(s)) where h : RN --+ R is a priori assumed to be a Gaussian random field. If we assume fields with zero prior mean, the statistics of h is entirely defined by the second order correlations C(s, S') == E[h(s)h(S')], where E denotes expectations 310 M Opper and 0. Winther with respect to the prior. Interesting examples are C(s, s') (1) C(s, s') (2) The choice (1) can be motivated as a limit of a two-layered neural network with infinitely many hidden units with factorizable input-hidden weight priors (Williams 1997). -
MCMC Learning (Slides)
Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions MCMC Learning Varun Kanade Elchanan Mossel UC Berkeley UC Berkeley August 30, 2013 Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Outline Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Uniform Distribution Learning • Unknown target function f : {−1; 1gn ! {−1; 1g from some class C • Uniform distribution over {−1; 1gn • Random Examples: Monotone Decision Trees [OS06] • Random Walk: DNF expressions [BMOS03] • Membership Query: DNF, TOP [J95] • Main Tool: Discrete Fourier Analysis X Y f (x) = f^(S)χS (x); χS (x) = xi S⊆[n] i2S • Can utilize sophisticated results: hypercontractivity, invariance, etc. • Connections to cryptography, hardness, de-randomization etc. • Unfortunately, too much of an idealization. In practice, variables are correlated. Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Markov Random Fields • Graph G = ([n]; E). Each node takes some value in finite set A. n • Distribution over A : (for φC non-negative, Z normalization constant) 1 Y Pr((σ ) ) = φ ((σ ) ) v v2[n] Z C v v2C clique C Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Markov Random Fields • MRFs widely used in vision, computational biology, biostatistics etc. • Extensive Algorithmic Theory for sampling from MRFs, recovering parameters and structures • Learning Question: Given f : An ! {−1; 1g. (How) Can we learn with respect to MRF distribution? • Can we utilize the structure of the MRF to aid in learning? Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Learning Model • Let M be a MRF with distribution π and f : An ! {−1; 1g the target function • Learning algorithm gets i.i.d. -
Arxiv:1511.03031V2
submitted to acta physica slovaca 1– 133 A BRIEF ACCOUNT OF THE ISING AND ISING-LIKE MODELS: MEAN-FIELD, EFFECTIVE-FIELD AND EXACT RESULTS Jozef Streckaˇ 1, Michal Jasˇcurˇ 2 Department of Theoretical Physics and Astrophysics, Faculty of Science, P. J. Saf´arikˇ University, Park Angelinum 9, 040 01 Koˇsice, Slovakia The present article provides a tutorial review on how to treat the Ising and Ising-like models within the mean-field, effective-field and exact methods. The mean-field approach is illus- trated on four particular examples of the lattice-statistical models: the spin-1/2 Ising model in a longitudinal field, the spin-1 Blume-Capel model in a longitudinal field, the mixed-spin Ising model in a longitudinal field and the spin-S Ising model in a transverse field. The mean- field solutions of the spin-1 Blume-Capel model and the mixed-spin Ising model demonstrate a change of continuous phase transitions to discontinuous ones at a tricritical point. A con- tinuous quantum phase transition of the spin-S Ising model driven by a transverse magnetic field is also explored within the mean-field method. The effective-field theory is elaborated within a single- and two-spin cluster approach in order to demonstrate an efficiency of this ap- proximate method, which affords superior approximate results with respect to the mean-field results. The long-standing problem of this method concerned with a self-consistent deter- mination of the free energy is also addressed in detail. More specifically, the effective-field theory is adapted for the spin-1/2 Ising model in a longitudinal field, the spin-S Blume-Capel model in a longitudinal field and the spin-1/2 Ising model in a transverse field. -
Random and Out-Of-Equilibrium Potts Models Christophe Chatelain
Random and Out-of-Equilibrium Potts models Christophe Chatelain To cite this version: Christophe Chatelain. Random and Out-of-Equilibrium Potts models. Statistical Mechanics [cond- mat.stat-mech]. Université de Lorraine, 2012. tel-00959733 HAL Id: tel-00959733 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00959733 Submitted on 15 Mar 2014 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Habilitation `aDiriger des Recherches Mod`eles de Potts d´esordonn´eset hors de l’´equilibre Christophe Chatelain Soutenance publique pr´evue le 17 d´ecembre 2012 Membres du jury : Rapporteurs : Werner Krauth Ecole´ Normale Sup´erieure, Paris Marco Picco Universit´ePierre et Marie Curie, Paris 6 Heiko Rieger Universit´ede Saarbr¨ucken, Allemagne Examinateurs : Dominique Mouhanna Universit´ePierre et Marie Curie, Paris 6 Wolfhard Janke Universit´ede Leipzig, Allemagne Bertrand Berche Universit´ede Lorraine Institut Jean Lamour Facult´edes Sciences - 54500 Vandœuvre-l`es-Nancy Table of contents 1. Random and Out-of-Equililibrium Potts models 4 1.1.Introduction................................. 4 1.2.RandomPottsmodels .......................... 6 1.2.1.ThepurePottsmodel ......................... 6 1.2.1.1. Fortuin-Kasteleyn representation . 7 1.2.1.2. From loop and vertex models to the Coulomb gas . -
Statistical Field Theory University of Cambridge Part III Mathematical Tripos
Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION Michaelmas Term, 2017 Statistical Field Theory University of Cambridge Part III Mathematical Tripos David Tong Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 OBA, UK http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/tong/sft.html [email protected] –1– Recommended Books and Resources There are a large number of books which cover the material in these lectures, although often from very di↵erent perspectives. They have titles like “Critical Phenomena”, “Phase Transitions”, “Renormalisation Group” or, less helpfully, “Advanced Statistical Mechanics”. Here are some that I particularly like Nigel Goldenfeld, Phase Transitions and the Renormalization Group • Agreatbook,coveringthebasicmaterialthatwe’llneedanddelvingdeeperinplaces. Mehran Kardar, Statistical Physics of Fields • The second of two volumes on statistical mechanics. It cuts a concise path through the subject, at the expense of being a little telegraphic in places. It is based on lecture notes which you can find on the web; a link is given on the course website. John Cardy, Scaling and Renormalisation in Statistical Physics • Abeautifullittlebookfromoneofthemastersofconformalfieldtheory.Itcoversthe material from a slightly di↵erent perspective than these lectures, with more focus on renormalisation in real space. Chaikin and Lubensky, Principles of Condensed Matter Physics • Shankar, Quantum Field Theory and Condensed Matter • Both of these are more all-round condensed matter books, but with substantial sections on critical phenomena and the renormalisation group. Chaikin and Lubensky is more traditional, and packed full of content. Shankar covers modern methods of QFT, with an easygoing style suitable for bedtime reading. Anumberofexcellentlecturenotesareavailableontheweb.Linkscanbefoundon the course webpage: http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/tong/sft.html.