Anomaly Detection Based on Wavelet Domain GARCH Random Field Modeling Amir Noiboar and Israel Cohen, Senior Member, IEEE
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Methods of Monte Carlo Simulation II
Methods of Monte Carlo Simulation II Ulm University Institute of Stochastics Lecture Notes Dr. Tim Brereton Summer Term 2014 Ulm, 2014 2 Contents 1 SomeSimpleStochasticProcesses 7 1.1 StochasticProcesses . 7 1.2 RandomWalks .......................... 7 1.2.1 BernoulliProcesses . 7 1.2.2 RandomWalks ...................... 10 1.2.3 ProbabilitiesofRandomWalks . 13 1.2.4 Distribution of Xn .................... 13 1.2.5 FirstPassageTime . 14 2 Estimators 17 2.1 Bias, Variance, the Central Limit Theorem and Mean Square Error................................ 19 2.2 Non-AsymptoticErrorBounds. 22 2.3 Big O and Little o Notation ................... 23 3 Markov Chains 25 3.1 SimulatingMarkovChains . 28 3.1.1 Drawing from a Discrete Uniform Distribution . 28 3.1.2 Drawing From A Discrete Distribution on a Small State Space ........................... 28 3.1.3 SimulatingaMarkovChain . 28 3.2 Communication .......................... 29 3.3 TheStrongMarkovProperty . 30 3.4 RecurrenceandTransience . 31 3.4.1 RecurrenceofRandomWalks . 33 3.5 InvariantDistributions . 34 3.6 LimitingDistribution. 36 3.7 Reversibility............................ 37 4 The Poisson Process 39 4.1 Point Processes on [0, )..................... 39 ∞ 3 4 CONTENTS 4.2 PoissonProcess .......................... 41 4.2.1 Order Statistics and the Distribution of Arrival Times 44 4.2.2 DistributionofArrivalTimes . 45 4.3 SimulatingPoissonProcesses. 46 4.3.1 Using the Infinitesimal Definition to Simulate Approx- imately .......................... 46 4.3.2 SimulatingtheArrivalTimes . 47 4.3.3 SimulatingtheInter-ArrivalTimes . 48 4.4 InhomogenousPoissonProcesses. 48 4.5 Simulating an Inhomogenous Poisson Process . 49 4.5.1 Acceptance-Rejection. 49 4.5.2 Infinitesimal Approach (Approximate) . 50 4.6 CompoundPoissonProcesses . 51 5 ContinuousTimeMarkovChains 53 5.1 TransitionFunction. 53 5.2 InfinitesimalGenerator . 54 5.3 ContinuousTimeMarkovChains . -
Foundations of Bayesian Learning from Synthetic Data
Foundations of Bayesian Learning from Synthetic Data Harrison Wilde Jack Jewson Sebastian Vollmer Chris Holmes Department of Statistics Barcelona GSE Department of Statistics, Department of Statistics University of Warwick Universitat Pompeu Fabra Mathematics Institute University of Oxford; University of Warwick The Alan Turing Institute Abstract (Dwork et al., 2006), to define working bounds on the probability that an adversary may identify whether a particular observation is present in a dataset, given There is significant growth and interest in the that they have access to all other observations in the use of synthetic data as an enabler for machine dataset. DP’s formulation is context-dependent across learning in environments where the release of the literature; here we amalgamate definitions regard- real data is restricted due to privacy or avail- ing adjacent datasets from Dwork et al. (2014); Dwork ability constraints. Despite a large number of and Lei (2009): methods for synthetic data generation, there are comparatively few results on the statisti- Definition 1 (("; δ)-differential privacy) A ran- cal properties of models learnt on synthetic domised function or algorithm K is said to be data, and fewer still for situations where a ("; δ)-differentially private if for all pairs of adjacent, researcher wishes to augment real data with equally-sized datasets D and D0 that differ in one another party’s synthesised data. We use observation and all S ⊆ Range(K), a Bayesian paradigm to characterise the up- dating of model parameters when learning Pr[K(D) 2 S] ≤ e" × Pr [K (D0) 2 S] + δ (1) in these settings, demonstrating that caution should be taken when applying conventional learning algorithms without appropriate con- Current state-of-the-art approaches involve the privati- sideration of the synthetic data generating sation of generative modelling architectures such as process and learning task at hand. -
12 : Conditional Random Fields 1 Hidden Markov Model
10-708: Probabilistic Graphical Models 10-708, Spring 2014 12 : Conditional Random Fields Lecturer: Eric P. Xing Scribes: Qin Gao, Siheng Chen 1 Hidden Markov Model 1.1 General parametric form In hidden Markov model (HMM), we have three sets of parameters, j i transition probability matrix A : p(yt = 1jyt−1 = 1) = ai;j; initialprobabilities : p(y1) ∼ Multinomial(π1; π2; :::; πM ); i emission probabilities : p(xtjyt) ∼ Multinomial(bi;1; bi;2; :::; bi;K ): 1.2 Inference k k The inference can be done with forward algorithm which computes αt ≡ µt−1!t(k) = P (x1; :::; xt−1; xt; yt = 1) recursively by k k X i αt = p(xtjyt = 1) αt−1ai;k; (1) i k k and the backward algorithm which computes βt ≡ µt t+1(k) = P (xt+1; :::; xT jyt = 1) recursively by k X i i βt = ak;ip(xt+1jyt+1 = 1)βt+1: (2) i Another key quantity is the conditional probability of any hidden state given the entire sequence, which can be computed by the dot product of forward message and backward message by, i i i i X i;j γt = p(yt = 1jx1:T ) / αtβt = ξt ; (3) j where we define, i;j i j ξt = p(yt = 1; yt−1 = 1; x1:T ); i j / µt−1!t(yt = 1)µt t+1(yt+1 = 1)p(xt+1jyt+1)p(yt+1jyt); i j i = αtβt+1ai;jp(xt+1jyt+1 = 1): The implementation in Matlab can be vectorized by using, i Bt(i) = p(xtjyt = 1); j i A(i; j) = p(yt+1 = 1jyt = 1): 1 2 12 : Conditional Random Fields The relation of those quantities can be simply written in pseudocode as, T αt = (A αt−1): ∗ Bt; βt = A(βt+1: ∗ Bt+1); T ξt = (αt(βt+1: ∗ Bt+1) ): ∗ A; γt = αt: ∗ βt: 1.3 Learning 1.3.1 Supervised Learning The supervised learning is trivial if only we know the true state path. -
Synthpop: Bespoke Creation of Synthetic Data in R
synthpop: Bespoke Creation of Synthetic Data in R Beata Nowok Gillian M Raab Chris Dibben University of Edinburgh University of Edinburgh University of Edinburgh Abstract In many contexts, confidentiality constraints severely restrict access to unique and valuable microdata. Synthetic data which mimic the original observed data and preserve the relationships between variables but do not contain any disclosive records are one possible solution to this problem. The synthpop package for R, introduced in this paper, provides routines to generate synthetic versions of original data sets. We describe the methodology and its consequences for the data characteristics. We illustrate the package features using a survey data example. Keywords: synthetic data, disclosure control, CART, R, UK Longitudinal Studies. This introduction to the R package synthpop is a slightly amended version of Nowok B, Raab GM, Dibben C (2016). synthpop: Bespoke Creation of Synthetic Data in R. Journal of Statistical Software, 74(11), 1-26. doi:10.18637/jss.v074.i11. URL https://www.jstatsoft. org/article/view/v074i11. 1. Introduction and background 1.1. Synthetic data for disclosure control National statistical agencies and other institutions gather large amounts of information about individuals and organisations. Such data can be used to understand population processes so as to inform policy and planning. The cost of such data can be considerable, both for the collectors and the subjects who provide their data. Because of confidentiality constraints and guarantees issued to data subjects the full access to such data is often restricted to the staff of the collection agencies. Traditionally, data collectors have used anonymisation along with simple perturbation methods such as aggregation, recoding, record-swapping, suppression of sensitive values or adding random noise to prevent the identification of data subjects. -
Error Control for the Detection of Rare and Weak Signatures in Massive Data Céline Meillier, Florent Chatelain, Olivier Michel, H Ayasso
Error control for the detection of rare and weak signatures in massive data Céline Meillier, Florent Chatelain, Olivier Michel, H Ayasso To cite this version: Céline Meillier, Florent Chatelain, Olivier Michel, H Ayasso. Error control for the detection of rare and weak signatures in massive data. EUSIPCO 2015 - 23th European Signal Processing Conference, Aug 2015, Nice, France. hal-01198717 HAL Id: hal-01198717 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01198717 Submitted on 14 Sep 2015 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. ERROR CONTROL FOR THE DETECTION OF RARE AND WEAK SIGNATURES IN MASSIVE DATA Celine´ Meillier, Florent Chatelain, Olivier Michel, Hacheme Ayasso GIPSA-lab, Grenoble Alpes University, France n ABSTRACT a R the intensity vector. A few coefficients ai of a are 2 In this paper, we address the general issue of detecting rare expected to be non zero, and correspond to the intensities of and weak signatures in very noisy data. Multiple hypothe- the few sources that are observed. ses testing approaches can be used to extract a list of com- Model selection procedures are widely used to tackle this ponents of the data that are likely to be contaminated by a detection problem. -
Synthetic Data Generation with Probabilistic Bayesian Networks
bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.14.151084; this version posted September 17, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. Synthetic data generation with probabilistic Bayesian Networks Grigoriy Gogoshin∗1a, Sergio Branciamore1b, and Andrei S. Rodin∗1c ∗Corresponding authors 1Department of Computational and Quantitative Medicine, Beckman Research Institute, and Diabetes and Metabolism Research Institute, City of Hope National Medical Center, 1500 East Duarte Road, Duarte, CA 91010 USA [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is a prominent and increasingly popular computational sys- tems biology method. It aims to construct probabilistic networks from the large heterogeneous biological datasets that reflect the underlying networks of biological relationships. Currently, a va- riety of strategies exist for evaluating BN methodology performance, ranging from utilizing artificial benchmark datasets and models, to specialized biological benchmark datasets, to simulation stud- ies that generate synthetic data from predefined network models. The latter is arguably the most comprehensive approach; however, existing implementations are typically limited by their reliance on the SEM (structural equation modeling) framework, which includes many explicit and implicit assumptions that may be unrealistic in a typical biological data analysis scenario. In this study, we develop an alternative, purely probabilistic, simulation framework that more appropriately fits with real biological data and biological network models. In conjunction, we also expand on our current understanding of the theoretical notions of causality and dependence / conditional independence in BNs and the Markov Blankets within. -
A Frequency-Domain Adaptive Matched Filter for Active Sonar Detection
sensors Article A Frequency-Domain Adaptive Matched Filter for Active Sonar Detection Zhishan Zhao 1,2, Anbang Zhao 1,2,*, Juan Hui 1,2,*, Baochun Hou 3, Reza Sotudeh 3 and Fang Niu 1,2 1 Acoustic Science and Technology Laboratory, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China; [email protected] (Z.Z.); [email protected] (F.N.) 2 College of Underwater Acoustic Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China 3 School of Engineering and Technology, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield AL10 9AB, UK; [email protected] (B.H.); [email protected] (R.S.) * Correspondence: [email protected] (A.Z.); [email protected] (J.H.); Tel.: +86-138-4511-7603 (A.Z.); +86-136-3364-1082 (J.H.) Received: 1 May 2017; Accepted: 29 June 2017; Published: 4 July 2017 Abstract: The most classical detector of active sonar and radar is the matched filter (MF), which is the optimal processor under ideal conditions. Aiming at the problem of active sonar detection, we propose a frequency-domain adaptive matched filter (FDAMF) with the use of a frequency-domain adaptive line enhancer (ALE). The FDAMF is an improved MF. In the simulations in this paper, the signal to noise ratio (SNR) gain of the FDAMF is about 18.6 dB higher than that of the classical MF when the input SNR is −10 dB. In order to improve the performance of the FDAMF with a low input SNR, we propose a pre-processing method, which is called frequency-domain time reversal convolution and interference suppression (TRC-IS). -
Fidelity and Privacy of Synthetic Medical Data Review of Methods and Experimental Results
Fidelity and Privacy of Synthetic Medical Data Review of Methods and Experimental Results June 2021 Ofer Mendelevitch, Michael D. Lesh SM MD FACC, Keywords: synthetic data; statistical fidelity; safety; privacy; data access; data sharing; open data; metrics; EMR; EHR; clinical trials; review of methods; de-identification; re-identification; deep learning; generative models 1 Syntegra © - Fidelity and Privacy of Synthetic Medical Data Table of Contents Table of Contents 2 Abstract 3 1. Introduction 3 1.1 De-Identification and Re-Identification 3 1.2 Synthetic Data 4 2. Synthetic Data in Medicine 5 2.1 The Syntegra Synthetic Data Engine and Medical Mind 6 3. Statistical Fidelity Validation 6 3.1 Record Distance Metric 6 3.2 Visualize and Compare Datasets 7 3.3 Population Statistics 8 3.4 Single Variable (Marginal) Distributions 9 3.5 Pairwise Correlation 10 3.6 Multivariate Metrics 11 3.6.1 Predictive Model Performance 11 3.6.2 Survival Analysis 12 3.6.3 Discriminator AUC 13 3.7 Clinical Consistency Assessment 13 4. Privacy Validation 13 4.1 Disclosure Metrics 13 4.1.1 Membership Inference Test 14 4.1.2 File Membership Hypothesis Test 16 4.1.3 Attribute Inference Test 16 4.2 Copy Protection Metrics 17 4.2.1 Distance to Closest Record - DCR 17 4.2.2 Exposure 18 5. Experimental Results 19 5.1 Datasets 19 5.2 Results 20 5.2.1 Statistical Fidelity 20 5.2.2 Privacy 30 6. Discussion and Analysis 34 6.1 DIG dataset results analysis 34 6.2 NIS dataset results analysis 35 6.3 TEXAS dataset results analysis 35 6.4 BREAST results analysis 36 7. -
MCMC Learning (Slides)
Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions MCMC Learning Varun Kanade Elchanan Mossel UC Berkeley UC Berkeley August 30, 2013 Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Outline Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Uniform Distribution Learning • Unknown target function f : {−1; 1gn ! {−1; 1g from some class C • Uniform distribution over {−1; 1gn • Random Examples: Monotone Decision Trees [OS06] • Random Walk: DNF expressions [BMOS03] • Membership Query: DNF, TOP [J95] • Main Tool: Discrete Fourier Analysis X Y f (x) = f^(S)χS (x); χS (x) = xi S⊆[n] i2S • Can utilize sophisticated results: hypercontractivity, invariance, etc. • Connections to cryptography, hardness, de-randomization etc. • Unfortunately, too much of an idealization. In practice, variables are correlated. Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Markov Random Fields • Graph G = ([n]; E). Each node takes some value in finite set A. n • Distribution over A : (for φC non-negative, Z normalization constant) 1 Y Pr((σ ) ) = φ ((σ ) ) v v2[n] Z C v v2C clique C Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Markov Random Fields • MRFs widely used in vision, computational biology, biostatistics etc. • Extensive Algorithmic Theory for sampling from MRFs, recovering parameters and structures • Learning Question: Given f : An ! {−1; 1g. (How) Can we learn with respect to MRF distribution? • Can we utilize the structure of the MRF to aid in learning? Uniform Distribution Learning Markov Random Fields Harmonic Analysis Experiments and Questions Learning Model • Let M be a MRF with distribution π and f : An ! {−1; 1g the target function • Learning algorithm gets i.i.d. -
Federated Principal Component Analysis
Federated Principal Component Analysis Andreas Grammenos1,3∗ Rodrigo Mendoza-Smith2 Jon Crowcroft1,3 Cecilia Mascolo1 1Computer Lab, University of Cambridge 2Quine Technologies 3Alan Turing Institute Abstract We present a federated, asynchronous, and (ε, δ)-differentially private algorithm for PCA in the memory-limited setting. Our algorithm incrementally computes local model updates using a streaming procedure and adaptively estimates its r leading principal components when only O(dr) memory is available with d being the dimensionality of the data. We guarantee differential privacy via an input-perturbation scheme in which the covariance matrix of a dataset X ∈ Rd×n is perturbed with a non-symmetric random Gaussian matrix with variance in d 2 O n log d , thus improving upon the state-of-the-art. Furthermore, contrary to previous federated or distributed algorithms for PCA, our algorithm is also invariant to permutations in the incoming data, which provides robustness against straggler or failed nodes. Numerical simulations show that, while using limited- memory, our algorithm exhibits performance that closely matches or outperforms traditional non-federated algorithms, and in the absence of communication latency, it exhibits attractive horizontal scalability. 1 Introduction In recent years, the advent of edge computing in smartphones, IoT and cryptocurrencies has induced a paradigm shift in distributed model training and large-scale data analysis. Under this new paradigm, data is generated by commodity devices with hardware limitations and severe restrictions on data- sharing and communication, which makes the centralisation of the data extremely difficult. This has brought new computational challenges since algorithms do not only have to deal with the sheer volume of data generated by networks of devices, but also leverage the algorithm’s voracity, accuracy, and complexity with constraints on hardware capacity, data access, and device-device communication. -
Synthetic Data Sharing and Estimation of Viable Dynamic Treatment Regimes with Observational Data
Synthetic Data Sharing and Estimation of Viable Dynamic Treatment Regimes with Observational Data by Nina Zhou A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Biostatistics) in The University of Michigan 2021 Doctoral Committee: Professor Ivo D. Dinov, Co-Chair Professor Lu Wang, Co-Chair Research Associate Professor Daniel Almirall Assistant Professor Zhenke Wu Professor Chuanwu Xi Nina Zhou [email protected] ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1649-3458 c Nina Zhou 2021 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisors Dr. Lu Wang and Dr. Ivo Dinov for their continuous support of my Ph.D. study and related research, for their patience, motivation, and immense knowledge. Their guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. Besides my advisors, I am grateful to the the rest of my thesis committee: Dr. Zhenke Wu, Dr. Daniel Almirall and Dr.Chuanwu Xi for their insightful comments and encouragements, but also for the hard question which incented me to widen my research from various perspectives. I would like to thank my fellow doctoral students for their feedback, cooperation and of course friendship. In addition, I would like to express my gratitude to Dr. Kristen Herold for proofreading all my writings. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family: my parents and grand parents for supporting me spiritually throughout writing this thesis and my life in general. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS :::::::::::::::::::::::::: ii LIST OF FIGURES ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: vi LIST OF TABLES :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: viii LIST OF ALGORITHMS ::::::::::::::::::::::::::: x ABSTRACT ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: xi CHAPTER I. -
Benchmarking Unsupervised Outlier Detection with Realistic Synthetic Data
Benchmarking Unsupervised Outlier Detection with Realistic Synthetic Data GEORG STEINBUSS, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany KLEMENS BÖHM, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany Benchmarking unsupervised outlier detection is difficult. Outliers are rare, and existing benchmark data contains outliers with various and unknown characteristics. Fully synthetic data usually consists of outliers and regular instance with clear characteristics and thus allows for a more meaningful evaluation of detection methods in principle. Nonetheless, there have only been few attempts to include synthetic data in benchmarks for outlier detection. This might be due to the imprecise notion of outliers or to the difficulty to arrive at a good coverage of different domains with synthetic data. In this work we propose a generic processfor the generation of data sets for such benchmarking. The core idea is to reconstruct regular instances from existing real-world benchmark data while generating outliers so that they exhibit insightful characteristics. This allows both for a good coverage of domains and for helpful interpretations of results. We also describe three instantiations of the generic process that generate outliers with specific characteristics, like local outliers. A benchmark with state-of-the-art detection methods confirms that our generic process is indeed practical. CCS Concepts: • Mathematics of computing ! Distribution functions; • Computing methodologies ! Machine learning algorithms; Anomaly detection. Additional Key Words and Phrases: Outlier Detection, Unsupervised, Benchmark, Synthetic Data. 1 INTRODUCTION Unsupervised outlier detection aims at finding data instances in an unlabeled data set that deviate from most other instances. Such outliers tend to be rare and usually exhibit unknown characteristics. This renders the evaluation of detection performance and hence comparisons of unsupervised outlier-detection methods difficult.