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Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review by Supporting Articles by German Authors, As Well As the Journal’S Printing and Distribution VOL. 34 EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Linas Kojala EDITOR: Nathan Radtke COVER DESIGN: Jurgis Jonaitis LAYOUT: Ieva Makarevičė PRINTING HOUSE: UAB BSPB PUBLISHER Linas Kojala, Director of Eastern Europe Studies Centre (EESC), is Editor-in-Chief of this year's magazine. EESC is a nongovernmental, non-profit think-tank, established in Vilnius, Lithuania in 2006. It aims to analyze political and economic processes in Eastern Europe and beyond. EESC partners include European Commission, NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme, National Endowment for Democracy, USAID, CEPA, Foreign Policy Research Institute and others. MAIN PARTNER Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania PARTNERS The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) is a German political foundation, which is in charge of projects in more than 120 countries. KAS is also cooperating in the publication of Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review by supporting articles by German authors, as well as the journal’s printing and distribution. US Embassy in Lithuania E M A I B N A A U.S. Embassy in Lithuania supported U.S. experts contributing to S U SY H V IT ILNIUS, L this year publication. ISSN: 1392-5504 © LFPR, 2018 Vol. 34 All of the pictures used are with a permission from the source for a non-commercial reuse. http://www.lfpr.lt http://www.eesc.lt If you wish to republish an Article, please send your request to [email protected] Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 3 Policy Lithuanian Foreign © DELFI A NOTE FROM THE EDITOR For a political scientist in Lithuania, However, I am also very happy to while Wolfgang von Stetten ex- there is no bigger privilege than to announce that LFPR will now be plains why Germany and Lithuania become a Chief Editor of one of receiving additional support from are currently enjoying bilateral ties its oldest publications, Lithuanian Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the that are stronger than ever before. Foreign Policy Review (LFPR). The U.S. Embassy in Lithuania, whose Finally, Andžej Pukšto discusses academic journal was established contributions were essential to Polish-Lithuanian relationship and twenty years ago, in 1998, to make this current issue of LFPR as key bilateral security projects. discuss the challenges facing far-reaching as it is. Lithuanian authors contribute as Lithuanian foreign policy. Gradu- I am proud that the publication is well. I myself focus on the realities ally, it moved towards covering the full of well-known names and glob- of the Eastern Partnership policy, security and foreign policy issues ally recognized experts, whose as well as its challenging future. of the countries in Central and discernments have allowed LFPR It is certainly still important, and Eastern Europe, before expanding to discuss a broader range of top- Lithuania is one of the key players again to address the geopolitical ics. Ambassador Alexander Ver- within the EU that can help in mak- and security problems of the entire shbow provides important insights ing it stronger. Dovilė Jakniūnaitė region. With almost 40 volumes, about the EU and NATO defense looks at how the Iranian Nuclear it has become a well-known plat- cooperation at a time when emo- Deal situation has been evolving, form for debate on these issues. tions and speculation, rather than and what the current standstill Now, LFPR turns a new leaf by rational arguments, often dominate may imply for Europe. Marius becoming an analytical, rather than the conversation. Edward Lu- Skuodis recalls the story of how an academic, annual publication. cas, a recognized British security Lithuania became the 36th country We expand in scope, discussing expert, discusses the ways for the to join the OECD in 2018. issues of global importance; we Baltics to maintain their security I am thankful for my colleagues at expand in terms of our con- throughout this period of transat- EESC, as well as all editors and tributors, combining Lithuanian lantic turbulence. Chris Miller, a advisors for their help in making expertise with the vast experience rising star within U.S. academia this issue of LFPR possible. There and insights of renowned foreign on Russia, offers his thoughts is only one more thing – please, experts; we expand in distribu- about the fourth term of Vladimir do not hesitate in sharing LFPR tion - this publication will reach Putin and Russia’s economy. with your friends, colleagues and new audiences via social media, Agnia Grigas, a prominent scholar partners! internet, in addition to print. Fi- of energy security, evaluates the nally, we expand in partners; I am progress of Lithuania in seeking Sincerely, extremely happy that the Ministry energy independence. Colleagues LINAS KOJALA of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, from Germany, Jakob Wollenstein which has been one of LFPR’s and Tobias Ruttershoff, discuss earliest partners, will remain a key the issues relevant for Central and partner, providing support while Eastern Europe with regards to ensuring editorial independence. their relationship with Germany, TABLE OF CONTENTS SECURITY AND TRANSATLANTIC LINKS 05 A. Vershbow. EUROPEAN DEFENSE: TIME FOR A HIGHER LEVEL OF AMBITION 09 E. Lucas. THE BALTICS IN AN ERA OF TRANSATLANTIC TURBULENCE 15 C. Miller. RUSSIAN POLITICS IN PUTIN’S NEW TERM LITHUANIA IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS 20 AGNIA GRIGAS: LITHUANIA IS NOT AN “ENERGY ISLAND” ANYMORE 23 L. Kojala. THE ROLE OF LITHUANIA IN EASTERN PARTNERSHIP POLICY 28 A. Pukšto. HOW TO SAVE THE GOLDEN FALL OF LITHUANIA & POLAND? 31 W. Freiherr von Stetten. LITHUANIA AND GERMANY: A RELATIONSHIP THAT IS BETTER THAN EVER BEFORE 37 Dr M. Skuodis. LITHUANIA’S MEMBERSHIP IN THE OECD: BENEFITS ARE ALREADY HERE THE REGION AND BEYOND 41 J. Wöllenstein and T. Rüttershoff. TWO PLUS TWO IS NOT NECESSARILY FOUR: GERMAN POLICY TOWARDS THE VISEGRÁD COUNTRIES 45 D. Jakniūnaitė. NO GOOD END IN SIGHT: THE CRUMBLING IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 4 Policy Lithuanian Foreign Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 5 Policy Lithuanian Foreign AMBASSADOR ALEXANDER VERSHBOW EUROPEAN DEFENSE: is a Distinguished Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft TIME FOR A HIGHER Center on Strat- egy and Security of the Atlantic Council in Washington DC. He served as NATO Deputy LEVEL OF AMBITION Secretary General (2012–2016), and previously as US Assistant Secretary ALEXANDER VERSHBOW of Defense for International Security Affairs and US Ambassador to NATO (1998–2001), Russia (2001-05) and the Republic of Korea (2005-08). THE CONTEXT President Donald Trump’s address to the UN General Assembly in For the first time, IN SHORT September 2018 was a fresh the European Union • The European members of NATO reminder of the United States’ ab- has agreed to take (as well as Canada) will need to do dication of leadership and rejection more to convince this transactional of “globalism.” On more and more concrete steps to US President to stay engaged with issues – trade, climate change, the improve NATO’s NATO, above and beyond meeting International Criminal Court and, military readiness by the 2%-of-GDP benchmark for most recently, the Iran nuclear their defense spending. Business deal – the United States is becom- using EU mechanisms as usual will not suffice. ing increasingly estranged from its to improve military • A more balanced Alliance would be traditional allies and partners. mobility across good for NATO, good for the EU, So far, NATO and transatlantic European borders. and good for the transatlantic bond. Europe, the ball is in your court! security have managed to survive the President’s wrath. Despite Trump’s complaints that NATO is vember, suggest that his commit- ment to the Alliance is tenuous at “obsolete” and that Allies aren’t theological barriers to interaction best and should not be taken for paying enough for US protection, between the two organizations granted. The European members his Administration has actually have been overcome. Thanks to of NATO (as well as Canada) will increased US military presence in direct engagement between the need to do more to convince this Europe and boosted funding for NATO Secretary General and top transactional US President to the European Deterrence Initiative. EU leaders, as well as frequent stay engaged with NATO, above Thanks in large measure to the contact between their staffs, and beyond meeting the 2%-of- leadership of Secretary of Defense NATO and the EU have adopted GDP benchmark for their defense James Mattis, the Brussels sum- a joint playbook to counter hybrid spending. Business as usual will mit in July 2018 adopted a wide threats, coordinated their maritime not suffice. range of decisions to bolster operations to curb illegal migra- deterrence, increase readiness tion, and adopted a comprehen- and expand NATO’s role in fight- NATO-EU COOPERATION sive program for future strategic ing terrorism and instability along Increased cooperation between partnership. Europe’s periphery. NATO and the European Union For the first time, the European is one way to show Trump that But the President’s tantrums Union has agreed to take concrete Europe is pulling its weight. It during the summit, and his recent steps to improve NATO’s military is encouraging that, in the last outbursts during the end-of-World readiness by using EU mecha- 4-5 years, the procedural and War I commemorations in No- But the question is whether, in the age of Donald Trump – when US security commitments to Europe are in doubt – these modest steps are going to be enough. disappear when Trump departs the scene. Both major US political IMAGE: NATO allies tried to reassure U.S. President Donald Trump about parties are emphasizing “nation their commitment increase defense spending (HM King Philippe (King of building at home” and the need to the Belgians), Trump, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Angela address long-neglected problems Merkel (Federal Chancellor, Germany) and Charles Michel (Prime Minister, of infrastructure, education and Belgium) on May, 2017) (© NATO) health care.
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