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PANORAMA July 2016 INSOLVENCIES in CENTRAL and EASTERN EUROPE the COFACE ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS by Grzegorz Sielewicz, Coface Economist

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PANORAMA July 2016 INSOLVENCIES in CENTRAL and EASTERN EUROPE the COFACE ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS by Grzegorz Sielewicz, Coface Economist 2 5 Insolvencies in Focus on countries Central and Eastern Europe in 2015 PANORAMA July 2016 INSOLVENCIES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE THE COFACE ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS by Grzegorz Sielewicz, Coface Economist ompanies in the Central tion for CEE businesses. The number of The regional improvement is confirmed and Eastern Europe region insolvencies decreased over the course by Coface’s country risk assessments, reported solid economic of last year in 9 out of 13 countries and which included several upgrades this growth rates as well as the GDP-weighted regional insolvency year. In January, Hungary’s assessment more structured growth average was -14%. Obviously, company was raised to A4, while in June there were last year. Thanks to the insolvencies varied at different rates upgrades of Latvia to A4, Lithuania to Chealthy situation of the labour markets, among CEE economies. Double-digit A3, Romania to A4 and Slovenia to A3. unemployment rates have been decrea- deterioration was recorded in Ukraine and Most CEE countries have thus moved to sing, to reach historically-low levels in Lithuania, whereas Romania and Hungary acceptable risk levels. many cases. This, combined with rising enjoyed significant improvements. Some wages and low inflation, have made of these huge fluctuations hide country Businesses will continue to take advan- private consumption a key driver for specifics that affected their performances tage of supportive conditions this year, growth. Investments, another impor- last year and these are explained in this although insolvencies will decline at a tant component of domestic demand, report. The number of insolvencies has slower pace than last year. Coface fore- grew – thanks to businesses’ improved not yet returned to the pre-crisis levels of casts that company insolvencies will drop expectations and, in particular, the acce- 2008 for most countries. In the Czech Re- by 5.3% for the full year 2016. lerated use of EU funds (during the final public, insolvencies were almost 4 times year of previous EU budget availability) to higher than in 2008, in Poland 1.8 times The CEE Insolvencies Panorama exa- co-finance projects. Last but not least, higher and in Slovenia 2.2 times higher. mines the regional economic situation CEE companies have seen improving de- At the same time, company insolvencies that companies faced during the course mand from their main export destination, in Slovakia and Romania are still below of last year. It then highlights particular the Eurozone. Although recovery in the pre-crisis levels. Overall, however, 2015 economies within the CEE, with a more Eurozone is weak, higher exports to the insolvency statistics paint a more posi- detailed focus on insolvencies, including region are compensating for the Russian tive picture of CEE companies. This trend the best and worst performing sectors, slowdown and the official ban on exports should persist, as corporates continue to as well as the largest insolvencies. The of selected merchandise to Russia. benefit from the favourable economic final section analyses the business environment, especially when compa- environment that CEE companies faced Positive macroeconomic conditions have, red to the turmoil being experienced in 2015, as well as the outlook for activity unsurprisingly, led to an improved situa- by many other emerging economies. in 2016. ALL THE OTHER GROUP PANORAMAS ARE AVAILABLE ON http://www.coface.com/News-Publications 2 PANORAMA INSOLVENCIES CEE DOSSIER “The CEE region enjoyed solid growth last year but corporates benefited even more, with average regional insolvencies declining by 14%. Although this year will be favourable, these exceptional results on both the macro and micro sides are unlikely to be repeated.“ Grzegorz SIELEWICZ Group Coface Economist based in Warsaw 1 INSOLVENCIES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE IN 2015 Countries in the CEE region1 enjoyed good eco- need to take advantage of their export potential, nomic conditions last year. The average regional as their own domestic markets are often too small. GDP growth rate accelerated from 2.6% in 2014, The region’s premier foreign trade destination is to 3.3% in 2015. Moreover, last year’s GDP result the Eurozone, particularly Germany, where CEE was the highest since the post-crisis level of countries send not just final products but com- 2009. This robust economic activity was suppor- ponents for manufactured goods which are sub- ted by higher absorption of EU funding - due to sequently sold locally or exported. The external being the final year of access to the previous EU environment supported CEE exporters last year. budget. As most CEE countries are EU members, Eurozone growth increased from 0.9% in 2014, to they are able to benefit from Cohesion Funds, 1.6% in 2015. Although Germany recorded slightly which are often used to enhance activities in the slower growth than in 2014, at 1.5% for 2015, this construction sector and various related industries. was still a good result when compared to current Although 2015 saw an exceptional boost in EU ‘standards’ for advanced economies. Even though co-financed investment activities, this was not the the Eurozone’s improvement is weak, it can still only factor in the region’s solid economic activity. be defined as a recovery. Nevertheless, the recent For the majority of CEE countries, strengthened “Brexit”, combined with other political uncertain- domestic demand, especially private consump- ties, could affect business confidence. tion, was the main growth driver. Declining unem- ployment rates, rising wages, low inflation (or An educated workforce, attractive labour costs even deflation in some economies), depressed and the region’s geographical proximity to the commodity prices and rock-bottom interest rates deep markets of the Eurozone and CIS countries, all made positive contributions and led to house- have all been crucial factors enabling the CEE hold consumption being the most important to produce goods demanded by external mar- driver for growth. The propensity of households kets and to be included in global supply chains. to spend has increased - as confirmed by rising However, some CIS markets, previously seen as consumer confidence indicators. Nonetheless, opportunities, have now entered into an econo- consumers remained relatively cautious in their mic slowdown. Russia, the most crucial market, spending habits as, in many cases, they had been imposed an embargo on meat, fish, fruit, vege- affected by the challenging times in the labour tables and milk products from the EU, US, Austra- market during 2012 and 2013. Despite this, house- lia, Canada and Norway in August 2014. This is still holds did become more inclined to purchase du- weighing negatively on a number of companies rable goods in 2015, rather than being focused on in the CEE region. Although exporters have been daily necessities. effective in their attempts to redirect exports to alternative markets, a faster rebound in Rus- CEE economies are highly exposed to exports. An sia’s economy, accompanied by the lifting of its example is the automotive sector, which sends the embargo, would bring a boost to foreign trade. bulk of its production to foreign markets. External So far, however, this appears unlikely, as the EU is demand is also important for other sectors, espe- more likely to prolong sanctions. cially in the smaller CEE economies, where they 1 The following countries are included as the CEE region: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithua- nia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine. PANORAMA INSOLVENCIES CEE 3 Table 1: Insolvencies in Central Europe 2014/2015 Total number of Insolvency Total insolvencies Dynamics Bancruptcies active companies* rate** 2015 2014 2015/2014 2015 2014 2015 2015 BULGARIA 592 644 -8.1% n.a. n.a. 400,000 0.15% CROATIA 1,977 2,764 -28.5% 388 719 263,897 0.75% CZECH REPUBLIC 13,877 12,772 8.7% 11,314 9,050 1,439,747 0.96% ESTONIA 131 145 -9.7% n.a. n.a. 192,000 0.07% HUNGARY 9,748 17,461 -44.2% 9,686 17,377 560,853 1.74% LATVIA 830 963 -13.8% 830 963 220,000 0.37% LITHUANIA 1,960 1,686 16.3% n.a. n.a. 99,200 1.98% POLAND 741 823 -10.0% 650 701 1,842,589 0.04% ROMANIA 10,170 20,120 -49.5% n.a. n.a. 450,286 2.26% SERBIA 5,109 4,773 7.0% 2,062 1,831 126,262 4.05% SLOVAKIA 446 522 -14.6% 354 407 539,089 0.08% SLOVENIA 950 1,446 -34.3% 816 1,302 203,542 0.47% UKRAINE 1,306 1,081 20.8% 1,290 1,063 1,117,000 0.12% GDP WEIGHTED -14.0% 0.81% AVERAGE * National statistics or estimations from expert organisations, average ** Share of insolvencies in a total number of active companies Bankruptcy proceedings: This term refers to insolvency proceedings that are directed to achieve the orderly wind-up of an insolvent enterprise with the objective of liquidating or reorganising the business. Thanks to the environment of rising domestic de- particularly suffered from the embargo mand and improving prospects on core foreign implemented by Russia, its most important destinations, businesses have felt comfortable with trading partner. The biggest impact came from expanding and addressing opportunities. The GDP- the process of “weeding” the market from com- weighted average of insolvencies in the CEE region panies that still officially existed, despite being dropped by 14% in 2015, resulting in less than 1% of insolvent for some time. This process, carried out bankruptcies in active firms. Only 4 countries among by the State Tax Inspectorate and Social Fund, the 13 analysed experienced an increase in insolven- resulted in a significant rise in the number of cies. These were the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Lithuanian bankruptcies last year, making it Serbia and Ukraine.
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