ISSN 1648-8024 General Jonas Þemaitis Lithuanian Military Academy Institute of International Relations and Political Science of the University of Vilnius STRATEGIC RESEARCH CENTER LITHUANIAN ANNUAL STRATEGIC REVIEW 2004 Vilnius 2005 Editorial Board Raimundas Lopata, Jûratë Novagrockienë, Gediminas Vitkus Reviewers for sections: “Global International System and Lithuania”; “Changing European Security Space” and “Security Issues in Lithuania” Prof. habil. dr. Jonas Èièinskas, Head of the European Studies Department, Insti- tute of International Relations and Political Science, University of Vilnius Dr. Vaidotas Urbelis, Head of the Defence Policy Planning Department of the Ministry of National Defence Reviewers for section “Lithuania’s Eastern Neighbours” Doc. dr. Kæstutis Ðerpetis, Assoc. prof. of the Political Science Department, School of Social Sciences, University of Klaipëda Doc. dr. Vladas Sirutavièius, Assoc. prof. of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science, University of Vilnius Managing Editor: Gediminas Vitkus Assitant to the Editor: Eglë Ðataitë-Drëgvienë Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2004, Vilnius: Lithuanian Military Academy, 2005 The main objective of this publication is to provide the readers with a wide-scale analysis and generalization of the changes, essential and significant, for the national security of Lithuania at international–systemic, regional and national levels. The book also aims to give maximum emphasis to the specificity of Lithuanian national security issues and comprehensively presenting them to a widely interested and concerned audience. © Authors of the articles, 2005 © Lithuanian Military Academy, 2005 Content Preface .............................................................................................................. 5 Global International System and Lithuania ................................. 9 The Globality of Terrorism: a View from Lithuania Egdûnas Raèius ................................................................................................ 11 Global Geopolitical Developments and Opportunities for Lithuania’s Foreign Policy Egidijus Motieka, Nortautas Statkus, Jonas Daniliauskas ............................... 27 Changing European Security Space ........................................... 67 Search for Identity in Modern Foreign Policy of Lithuania: between the Northern and Eastern dimensions? Graþina Miniotaitë ............................................................................................ 69 Exporting Idealism? The Prospects of Baltic Sea Region Cooperation after Enlargement Christopher S. Browning .................................................................................... 85 The Baltic States, Arms Brokers and Diversions of Arms Paul Holtom ...................................................................................................... 99 Lithuania’s Eastern Neighbours .................................................. 113 The Russia – USA – EU “triangle” and Smaller States in 2003-2004 Gediminas Vitkus .............................................................................................. 115 “Power Vertical” in Russia: 2003-2004 Election Cycle Peripeteia Virgilijus Pugaèiauskas ...................................................................................... 141 Review of the Russian Military Policy: Old Mythology, Today‘s Threats, Future Prospects Darius Jakulevièius, Kazimieras Gediminas Buèiûnas ..................................... 159 National Security Issues in Lithuania........................................... 187 Armed Forces Transformation in the 21st Century: a Case of Lithuania Jûratë Novagrockienë ....................................................................................... 189 Lithuania’s Participation in International Peace Operations: Challenges of the NATO and EU Memberships Þaneta Ulozevièiûtë .......................................................................................... 209 Contribution of Lithuania to the International Community 209 Fight against Terrorism: Overview of the Official Position Feliksas Þigaras ................................................................................................. 225 The Concept of Economic Security and the Principles of Economic Security Policy in Lithuania Remigijus Ðimaðius, Ramûnas Vilpiðauskas ..................................................... 249 5 Preface Volume 3 of the Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2004 (further - the Review), a publication of the Strategic Research Center of the Kithuanian Military Academy and the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of Vil- nius University, has come out one year after Lithuania started its membership in the EU and NATO. When this strategic objective of foreign and security policy was achieved, a division between the two periods – “before the membership” and “after the membership” – naturally appeared. On the one hand, Lithuania must meet mem- bership requirements in both organizations and establish itself as an active and equal participant of NATO and EU policy. On the other hand, it has faced tasks of recon- sidering and conceptualizing perspectives of foreign and security policy. This, of course, does not mean that the situation of the country or security policy have under- gone radical changes. Both seeking NATO and EU membership as well as enjoying it, Lithuania as one of the states of the dynamically changing world must take on the challenges that the alliances and other actors of international relations face. Howe- ver, new tendencies related to the problems of foreign and security policies as well as many questions that after the dual enlargement still remain unanswered have, to some extent, influenced the content of the presented volume. The Review, similarly to the two volumes published previously, focuses main- ly on the estimation of the possibilities and perspectives of Lithuania’s foreign and security policy on the international – systemic, regional and national levels. Therefo- re, the analysis of the national security environment and contribution of Lithuania itself to undoubtedly one of the most important elements international security – fight against terrorism – is becoming of utmost significance. On the other hand, the new status of Lithuania and the successful implemen- tation of one of the foreign policy objectives prompted the editors of the publica- tion to pay more attention to two other directions of Lithuanian foreign policy, i.e. regional security and relations with neighbors. In this respect, unlike in the previo- us publications, greater attention is paid to the investigation of the position of Lithuania in the Baltic Sea region and its relations with the biggest neighbor – Russia. Worthy of note is the pleasant fact that for the first time not only familiar to the reader and new Lithuanian authors, but also researches of other countries con- tributed to the publication. In the first part of the book “Global Tendencies of the International System Development” Egdûnas Raèius, in his article “Globality of Terrorism: A View from Lithuania”, analyzes the problem of present-day terrorism which is important both on a global scale and to Lithuania. His work attracts interest due to an extensive survey of terrorism as a phenomenon and its origins and also due to the great deal of attention devoted to the analysis of jihad terrorism and the analysis of the evolution of its most evident example al Qaeda. At the same time, by his publication Raèius is starting the analysis of Lithuania’s participation in anti-terrorist activities. In their article “Global Geopolitical Developments and Opportunities for Lithuania’s Foreign Policy”, Egidijus Motieka, Nortautas Statkus and Jonas Dani- liauskas systemically look into geo-strategic plans and perspectives of the key geopo- 6 litical actors – the big states of the EU (the United Kingdom, France and Germany), the USA, Russia and China – as well as into the possibilities of Lithuanian foreign policy in the context of the interaction of these states. The article consists of two parts. In the first part, the analysis of the interests of the great states and their intersection is carried out, possible interrelations are modeled, geo-strategy of the investigated coun- tries in Euro-Asia in the short, medium and long periods is presented. The second part deals with Lithuania’s, as a member of NATO and the EU, situation and its place in the strategic plans of each great state and provides an anatomy of the growth of the possibilities and influence of its foreign policy. The main emphasis of the second part of the Review, “Changing European Security Space”, is placed on the problems related to the Baltic Sea region. In her article “Search for Identity in Modern Foreign Policy of Lithuania: between the Northern and Eastern dimensions?” Graþina Miniotaitë, is analyzing the changes of foreign policy in the light of identity construction and space conceptualization from the standpoint of social constructivism, presents a detailed investigation of the situation of Lithuania in the Baltic Sea region and its “new” foreign policy after joining NATO and the EU. The author is attempting to answer the question to what extent Lithuanian foreign policy is changing and how active it can be in the conditions of the new status. The issue of the identity of the states of the Baltic Sea region and their regional cooperation is further developed by a rather critical and even sceptical article of Christopher