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Socio-Spatial Change in Lithuania

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Socio-Spatial Change in Lithuania 09 2017 Socio-spatial change in Lithuania Depopulation and increasing spatial inequalities Rūta Ubarevičienė Socio-spatial change in Lithuania Depopulation and increasing spatial inequalities Rūta Ubarevičienė Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment, OTB – Research for the Built Environment TOC abe.tudelft.nl Design: Sirene Ontwerpers, Rotterdam Cover photo: Andrius Ufartas (www.fotobankas.lt) ISBN 978-94-92516-75-6 ISSN 2212-3202 © 2017 Rūta Ubarevičienė All rights reserved. No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the author. Unless otherwise specified, all the photographs in this thesis were taken by the author. For the use of illustrations effort has been made to ask permission for the legal owners as far as possible. We apologize for those cases in which we did not succeed. These legal owners are kindly requested to contact the publisher. TOC To my beloved family TOC TOC Foreword Lithuania is a small European country (pop. 2.9 million in 2016), located on the eastern border of the EU, surrounded by Latvia, Belarus, Poland, Kaliningrad Oblast (Russia) and the Baltic Sea. Quite recently, in 1990, the country regained its independence from the Soviet Union and began a process of democratic development. Both its peripheral geographical location and its history have created demographic and economic challenges that Lithuania has had to face over recent decades. The most significant issue is the huge drop in population, with Lithuania losing more than 20 percent of its inhabitants since the 1990s, which makes it one of the fastest shrinking countries in the world. Lithuania Despite the fact that significant changes in the Lithuanian population have been occurring for three decades, they have only recently started to attract greater media attention. However, many issues related to population change still eceiver little attention in the scientific and political domains. There is no clear strategy designed to TOC cope with the extreme population decline and its consequences. It is a paradox that current regional development policy is guided by growth-oriented regional planning documents. Moreover, these documents were prepared when the depopulation trend already prevailed. However, extreme depopulation can no longer be ignored in Lithuania. As there is little hope of reversing the ongoing trend, it is important to find coping strategies that can reduce the negative consequences. If not, Lithuania will encounter serious threats to its social and economic stability in the near future. One of the measures that could help to cope with these threats is more effective regional planning policy. To develop this, it will be necessary to first have a good understanding of the complex nature of the socio-spatial changes occurring in Lithuania and the processes behind them. This thesis aims to contribute to this understanding. The socio-spatial changes taking place in Lithuania have been my topic of research for the past eight years. Unfortunately, the more I studied Lithuania, the more I understood that the country was in a very difficult phase of socio-demographic and economic development. If no urgent steps are taken and no radical solutions implemented to systematically address the problems of population decline, I believe the negative trends will only increase. Eventually, this will have particularly severe demographic and economic consequences, such as rapidly aging population, labour shortage and rising public sector deficits. The results of this thesis will highlight some of the most problematic trends in socio-spatial development. The thesis will also illustrate the urgent need to start planning for population decline. The issues facing Lithuania not only triggered my attention from a researcher’s perspective, but also from the perspective of a citizen of the country. Like many Lithuanians, I chose to go abroad to extend my horizons, and I personally understand how difficult it is for many emigrants to make the decision to returno t the country, the future of which is so uncertain. It seems that even the most basic vision of economic and socio-demographic development is lacking. This thesis includes five chapters reporting on empirical research: four are published papers and one is a published chapter in a book. Another published paper is not included as a separate chapter, but some of its results are presented here in the introduction (Section 1.2.3). In the case of two papers included, I am not the first author; however, I significantly contributed to their writing and the analysis. These chapters focus on the segregation process and both were part of a research project in Lithuania in which I participated as one of the main contributors. I have included them in this thesis because they contribute to the overall aim of understanding socio-spatial change in Lithuania. TOC Some of the analyses presented in this thesis are descriptive in nature. However, considering that current knowledge about Lithuania is very limited, it is important to first fill in some knowledge gaps and enhance our understanding of more general processes. When I started my PhD, very limited data was available and it was only possible to use cross-sectional aggregated census data. As the PhD progressed, I was able to access more detailed individual-level census data. This thesis is the first study to use individual-level geo-coded Lithuanian census data for socio-spatial research. It is expected that the continuation of research in the future will open up opportunities for more enhanced studies and add more to the formation of theory. TOC TOC Acknowledgements When I moved to the Netherlands, following my husband, I could not have imagined that I will start doing PhD at the Delft University. I have begun as a guest researcher at the OTB and my goal was to write a couple of articles. Articles followed the articles... Eventually I was asked, whether I would like to turn them into the thesis. “Not much work is left” – I was told. It was a great opportunity that I could not miss. Of course, there was more work left than I have hoped for. As if that was not enough, I have involved myself into several research projects in Lithuania and Germany. As a result, the last one and a half years were really ambitious and challenging, but I cannot regret a single sleepless night. I could not have succeeded to finish this thesis without the motivation, support and contribution of many others. I would particularly like to thank my supervisor Maarten van Ham. He is very inspiring researcher having incredible abilities to keep everybody motivated. Maarten was a great example and authority not only in science but in life throughout my PhD. Once he said that the supervision of my PhD is more of a hobby than a job for him. I accept it as a compliment. No less thankful I am to Donatas Burneika. Thanks to him I became a researcher. Donatas is my main co-author and a person I can ask for advice and help at any time. I hope that I will have an opportunity to work with both of these professors in the future. I would like to thank the members of the doctoral committee. I am very grateful that all of them accepted our invitation to participate in my defence and had positive feedback about my work. I am thankful for all the colleagues in the OTB, Lithuanian Social Research Centre and Leibniz Institute for Regional Geography, with whom I was working during the last years. I enjoyed being part of all these inspiring research environments, meeting many interesting people and learning from them. I am thankful for everyone who did not mind and were happy to have my dog Ufa in our shared offices. There is no better way to reduce work-related stress. I am also very grateful to my beloved and supporting family. My parent’s passion and habit to be proud of their three daughters encouraged me not to disappoint them and go down this PhD road till the end. My sisters will always be my best friends. No less important to me are my parents in law, their trust and enthusiasm. I would not have achieved many things in my life without the encouragement and support of my husband. He is my biggest luck. TOC TOC Contents Foreword 7 Acknowledgements 11 List of Tables 15 List of Figures 16 Summary 17 Samenvatting 31 Summary references/Samenvatting referenties 45 1 Introduction: Socio-spatial change in Lithuania. Depopulation and increasing spatial inequalities 49 1.1 Introduction 49 1.2 Historical background of Lithuania 52 1.2.1 Political and economic system change 53 1.2.2 Urban and regional planning policy change 55 1.2.3 Economic restructuring 57 1.3 Socio-spatial developments 60 1.3.1 Population decline 62 1.3.2 Changing residential patterns: the outcome of migration 66 1.3.3 Social segregation 69 1.3.4 Increasing regional inequalities 73 1.4 Gaps in current knowledge, aims and research questions 76 1.5 Data 79 1.6 Outline of the thesis 81 2 Shrinking regions in a shrinking country: The geography of population decline in Lithuania 2001-2011 91 13 Contents TOC 3 Population decline in Lithuania. Who lives in declining regions and who leaves? 127 4 Ethno-political effects of suburbanization in the Vilnius urban region: An analysis of voting behaviour 159 5 Large social inequalities and low levels of socio- economic segregation in Vilnius 185 6 Socio-ethnic segregation in the metropolitan areas of Lithuania 209 7 Conclusions: Socio-spatial change in Lithuania.
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