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Strategy to Reduce the Health Impacts Associated with Air Pollution from Fuel Combustion

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Strategy to Reduce the Health Impacts Associated with Air Pollution from Fuel Combustion Strategy to reduce the health impacts associated with air pollution from fuel combustion 5 December 2003 DRAFT FINAL REPORT Executive summary Objective and scope The primary objective of the study was provide an assessment of the social and economic impact of the phasing out of air pollution from combustible fuels in the country over a period of time, and to provide specific guidance on supply side measures to support the process. The study investigated emissions resulting from ddomestic fuel burning, power generation industrial activity, transport and activity in the agriculture sector. It is important to recognise that the scope of this study was limited in that it only included the quantification of inhalation exposures due to fuel burning related atmospheric emissions. It does not quantify emissions or impacts associated with other sources of emissions. The emissions identified were SO2, NOx, particulates, CO, lead, VOCs, (CO2, CH4, N2O). It must also be considered that although the study investigated emissions and their sources at conurbation level, impacts were considered from a national level and the overall strategy is at national level The following conurbations were included in the study: Cities of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni, Tshwane, Cape Town and Ethekwini Mpumalanga Highveld Vaal Triangle For air pollution prediction the US-EPA approved Gaussian Puff air dispersion model was used, and limited to first order chemical transformation (secondary particulate formation), therefore excluded photochemical modelling (and ozone generation prediction). In determining impacts consideration was given to local versus global scale impacts, inhalation-related human health risks and risk of paraffin poisoning, burns. Priority was given to interventions suitable for implementation at national level Key findings and conclusions The strategy devised to reduce air pollution from fuel combustion is the culmination of extensive investigation, which considered international practices, the South African policy and regulatory environment, the current sources and impacts of air pollutions within different conurbations, and the socio-economic impact of various potential interventions identified. The following are key conclusions from these investigations: a) There are varied implementation options available for facilitating or forcing intervention, such as regulation, market mechanisms, and education. b) Ranking of source significance should be based on impact rather than emissions. The following are at aggregate level the contribution of primary fuel burning sources to health impacts: Domestic fuel burning: 69% (but reducing, 64% by 2011) Vehicle emissions: 12 % (and growing, 15% by 2011) i Electricity generation: 6% (similarly 7% in 2011) Coal fired boilers: 4% (similarly 4% in 2011) Other sources (primarily industrial sources) : 9% (and growing, 11% by 2011) c) The results of the socio-economic impact assessment of interventions considered are summarised as follows: Int Economic Financial NPV Employment Financial Stakeholder Analysis (Rm) No B:C Ratio (R millions) Direct Jobs Indirect Jobs Total Jobs Government Firms Households 1 Basa Njengo Magogo - DME ICHES 1 177.0 756.3 -41.2 388.4 347.2 413.9 -76.2 173.0 2 Basa Njengo Magogo - plateau roll out 2 120.1 1,123.4 -55.5 576.4 520.9 573.5 -180.7 315.3 3 Low smoke fuels 3 0.4 -3,591.8 375.1 -1,017.2 -642.1 1,177.5 1,317.5 -1,236.2 4 Housing insulation - 5% of plateau fuel burning households 4 6.0 262.9 -5.2 153.0 147.9 114.8 -32.6 106.5 5 Housing insulation - 20% of plateau fuel burning households 5 6.0 1,051.6 -20.7 612.2 591.5 459.0 -130.2 426.2 6 Housing insulation - 5% of all fuel burning households 6 7.9 426.1 -14.8 235.6 220.8 218.3 -32.8 134.1 7 Housing insulation - 20% of all fuel burning households 7 7.9 1,704.4 -59.1 942.3 883.2 873.0 -131.3 536.5 8 Electrification 8 1.2 1,044.2 1,687.0 1,948.9 3,635.9 2,035.3 1,825.3 -1,586.9 9 Stove maintenance and repair - 5% households all areas 9 16.5 325.1 -12.1 149.5 137.3 114.4 -166.4 167.6 10 Stove maintenance and repair - 20% households all areas 10 16.5 1,300.4 -48.5 597.8 549.3 457.8 -665.5 670.2 11 Desulphurisation of all PS emissions 11 0.0 -15,445.6 9,412.4 -954.5 8,457.9 1,301.0 -3,187.9 1,908.6 12 Decommissioning of PTA West PS - gas use by households 12 13 RE technology implementation (10 000 GWh block) 13 0.3 -5,429.4 3,091.4 -600.7 2,490.7 386.9 -1,864.1 661.6 14 RE technology implementation (37 000 GWh block) 14 0.3 -6,340.7 3,167.7 -575.6 2,592.1 483.0 -2,261.9 778.1 15 Coal fired boilers for particulates (>90% control efficiency req.) 15 0.8 -190.6 577.3 374.4 951.7 446.7 -140.5 -211.3 16 Iscor coke oven gas cleaning 16 17 Highveld Steel & Vanadium 17 18 Desulphurisation of Sasol Secunda PS emissions 18 0.1 -1,933.6 1,011.1 -74.8 936.3 195.3 -501.4 263.6 19 Reduction of S content of petrol to 500 ppm (0.05%) 19 20 Reduction of S content of petrol to 50 ppm (0.005%) 20 0.0 -1,115.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 -44.4 -303.1 -639.0 21 Reduction of benzene content of petrol to 1% 21 0.0 -1,094.4 -1.2 7.0 5.7 -32.9 -612.5 -323.9 22 Reduction of aromatics content of petrol to 35% 22 0.1 -1,235.3 -17.0 95.3 78.3 103.9 -422.4 -810.2 23 Phasing out of lead in petrol 23 0.0 -347.6 67.8 -72.6 -4.8 20.8 331.4 -312.0 24 Reduction of S content of diesel to <500pm (0.05%) 24 25 Reduction of S content of diesel to <50ppm (0.005%) 25 0.5 -442.0 -33.1 237.4 204.3 276.4 -852.4 126.8 26 New passenger vehicles comply with Euro 2 standards 26 1.0 626.6 -36.0 260.7 224.8 410.1 -8.4 73.0 27 New passenger vehicles comply with Euro 4 standards 27 1.0 419.9 -29.4 213.7 184.3 279.6 -5.4 42.2 28 Taxi recapitalisation programme 28 29 All petrol vehicles EURO 2 compliant 29 1.0 1,054.2 -73.9 536.9 462.9 702.4 -13.5 105.5 30 Conversion of 10% of petrol vehicles to LPG 30 1.0 -2,382.6 2,364.2 -215.4 2,148.8 122.6 1,702.7 -1,312.7 31 Conversion of 20% of petrol vehicles to LPG 31 1.0 -4,765.3 4,728.4 -430.9 4,297.6 245.2 3,405.5 -2,625.5 32 Electrification of paraffin burning households 32 1.3 1,410.2 1,300.4 2,035.5 3,335.8 1,659.4 1,325.5 -1,215.6 d) From a financial and economic perspective low (or existing) technology interventions in the domestic (household) sector can yield significant benefit in the short to medium term. These are Basa Njengo Magogo, housing insulation and electrification. e) Low smoke fuels in the domestic sector is not attractive unless a lower cost technology can be developed. f) Interventions related to changes in fuel specifications and vehicle technology standards need to be re-examined from a holistic perspective. g) Electricity generation interventions implementing high technology on the supply side (desulphurisation of power stations, renewable energy) are not feasible from a financial and economic perspective. The study did not consider renewable technologies on the demand side, for example solar heating at household level. h) The benefit of industrial interventions depends on scale, location and technology factors. i) The bulk of savings due to reduced pollution would go to government, primarily due to reduced spending in the public health care industry. j) There is a sufficient number of households in the domestic sector to allow for the implementation of multiple interventions without risk of deterioration of benefit:cost ratio’s of identified interventions. ii k) In practice it is not expected that the interventions proposed will result in significant employment loss, in general. l) The implementation of an appropriate measurement and monitoring system in South Africa is a pre-requisite for implementation of this strategy (and the Air Quality Bill for that matter). m) Market incentives as well as taxes and charges show more promise in developing countries than tradable permit systems. The long-term goal to reduce air pollution from fuel combustion Reduce the negative health effects associated with air pollution due to fuel combustion in the short-to-medium term, with the purpose of reducing the associated health cost (and associated cost of R 4.7 billion p/a) by 50% by 2011, in a cost effective manner Although there is inherent variance with regards to health impacts determines (and costs calculated), a conservative approach was followed throughout the study and the numbers can be regarded to be realistic. Over-arching themes that guides the strategy a) Focus on reducing the effects of air pollution. A key theme that emerged from this study is that the aim of all actions to manage air pollutions should be driven by the impact of emissions, and not the emissions itself.
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