Concept of Compatibility in Shipping

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Concept of Compatibility in Shipping Concept of Compatibility in Shipping Fuzzy Set Theory and Case-Based Reasoning Approaches Setyo Nugroho Technische Universität Berlin 2005 D83 Concept of Compatibility in Shipping - Fuzzy Set Theory and Case-Based Reasoning Approaches - vorgelegt von ir. Setyo Nugroho geb. in Tuban, Indonesien an der Fakultät V Verkehrs- und Machinensysteme Technische Universität Berlin zur Erlangung des Grades Doktor-Ingenieur -Dr.-Ing.- genehmigte Dissertation Promotionsausschuss: Vorsitzende: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gerhard Hüttig Berichter: Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Horst Linde Berichter: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Erhard Konrad Tag der wissenschaftliche Aussprache: 13. Juni 2005 BERLIN 2005 D83 Dedicated to: my children, my wife and my parents i Summary This thesis aims at contributing a new perspective on the way living pro- blems in shipping practice are addressed. Shipping is the workhorse of the world economy. It connects nearly all parts of the world. State of the macro economy, weather and political events affect the sector very much. The magnitude of their influence is unclear and is difficult to justify objectively. Those aspects are taken into account when determining of freight rates or charter hire. Therefore shipping can be viewed as a complex system. The existing tools including market forecasts and shipping indexes are less useful for conducting daily shipping practice. Information is available in abundance, but the useful one is still scarce and expensive. In spite of the complexity of the living problems in shipping, an experi- enced shipping practitioner can solve problems quickly and -frequently- sa- tisfactorily. An experienced ship broker, for example, can assess the value of ships better and faster than any value assessment method. This merit leads to the idea, that it would be useful to have a better insight on this phenomenon that experience and intuition play an important role in practi- ce and that similar problems tend to have similar solutions. Therefore the capability to recognize similar problems will be helpful to find the desired solution. Compatibility, a concept proposed as an attempt to explain and to em- brace the way problems-solvings (value assessment and planning tasks) are conducted in daily shipping practice. The concept of compatibility invol- ves an act of grouping of similar attributes of similar objects, for example in the case of a ship replacement. The concept concerns also an act of matching between objects of different roles or functionalities, for example between a ship and route, or between a ship and a charter hire value. It implies that the concept of compatibility means an act of problem-solving. Fuzzy set theory and case-based reasoning are used, given the capa- bility for addressing the notions of vagueness and learning respectively, which mark the concept of compatibility. Three models have been deve- loped : (a) fuzzy arithmetic-based voyage estimation (b) tailor-made ship- ping index and (c) case-based stowage planning. The implementation of the concept delivers a new and promising way of addressing the problems which are not addressed satisfactorily at present. ii Kurzfassung Kompatibilität in der Schiffahrt: Perspektiven der Theorie von Fuzzy-Mengen und des Fallbasierten Schließens Mit dieser Arbeit wird versucht, eine neue Perspektive für die Lösung von Problemen in der Handelsschifffahrtspraxis zu schaffen. Schifffahrt ist in der Weltwirtschaft der wichtigste Transporteur, vor allem für Güter. Sie verbindet fast alle Teile der Welt miteinander. Die Welt- wirtschaft, die Politik einzelner Länder, Einzeleinflüsse wie Ölpreis, Klima oder Wetterbedingungen beeinflussen den Wirtschaftssektor Schifffahrt in großem Maße. Die Größenordnungen der Einflüsse sind veränderlich und schwierig objektiv fassbar. Sie sind der Hintergrund auch für den Wert eines Schiffes sowie für Fracht- und Charterraten. Schifffahrt ist daher ein hoch komplexes System. Existierende Hilfsmittel, wie Schifffahrts-Indexe, Bewertungsmodelle und Marktprognosen, sind keine hilfreichen Werkzeuge im täglichen Schifffahrts- geschäft. Viele Informationen sind verfügbar, aber die wirklich nützlichen sind knapp und teuer. Trotz der Komplexität der realen Problematik können erfahrene Schiff- fahrtspraktiker ihre Probleme oft schnell und zufriedenstellend lösen. Zum Beispiel können Schiffsmakler den Wert von Schiffen besser und schneller abschätzen als veröffentlichte Bewertungsmodelle. Diese Fähigkeit führt zu der These, dass es nützlich wäre, eine verbesserte Einsicht in das Phänomen zu gewinnen, dass Intuition und Erfahrung viel zum täglichen Problemlösen beitragen und ähnliche Probleme dazu neigen, zu ähnlichen Lösungen zu führen. Das Erkennen ähnlicher Situationen kann daher zu wichtigen Hinweisen für die Lösung eines Problems führen. Der Begriff Kompatibilität wird benutzt, um die Art und Weise zu erklären, in der Prob- lemlösungen in der Praxis (z.B. Wertermittlung und Beschäftigungsplanung) erfolgen. Der Begriff Kompatibilität enthält einen Akt von Gruppierung ähnlicher Attribute oder ähnlicher Objekte, z.B. im Zusammenhang mit dem Ersatz eines Schiffes durch ein anderes. Kompatibilität bedeutet ferner auch ein Zusammenpassen von Objekten unterschiedlicher Funktionalitäten oder Aufgaben, z.B. zwischen Schiff und Hafen oder zwischen Schiff und Char- terrate. Es zeigt sich, dass die Feststellung von Kompatibilität einen Akt der Problemlösung darstellt. iii Die Theorie der unscharfen Mengen und das Fall-basierte Schließen werden ausgewählt aufgrund ihrer Lernfähigkeit und ihrer Fähigkeit zur Ver- arbeitung unscharfer Phänomene. Drei Modelle sind entwickelt worden: (a) Fuzzy-arithmetische Reiseberechnungen, (b) individuell formulierte Schiff- fahrts-Indexe und (c), als Exkurs, die fallbasierte Stauplanung für Contain- erschiffe. Die vorgeschlagene Implementierung liefert somit ein neues und vielversprechendes Konzept zur Lösung von Problemen in der Schifffahrt, insbesondere im Chartergeschäft. iv Preface and Acknowledgement Human experts are not systems of rules, they are libraries of experiences Riesbeck and Schank 1 This dissertation can perhaps be viewed as a journey. It is a journey to few places and situations. It is a journey through viewpoints and experiences. Without supports of many, the end of the journey would have not been visible. Firstly, I would like to thank Prof. Horst Linde (Department of Marine Transport, TU Berlin) who has given me the liberty to explore new areas, called AI. I am also very grateful for having been given the opportunity to join a research project COMSTAU (Computer Aided Stowage Planning for Container Ships) with TU Hamburg-Harburg and Müller+Blanck software firm. Views on AI have affected my views on looking at my shipping domain very much. For this, I owe many thanks to Prof. Erhard Konrad (Depart- ment of Knowledge-Based Systems, TU Berlin). I will miss colleagues and friends, with whom I could share ideas and problems. Imad Khemlichi, Frauke Baumgärtel, Felix Fliege, Hanurani Pra- janto, Aceng Hidayat, Wayan Karyasa, Peter Horstkorte, Heike Vogeley, Frank Laue, Jens Heyer, Csaba Piller are among a few. Last but not least, I would like to thank my wife, Herlin, and our children, Dipto and Saraswati, for their understanding when I frequently came late at home. Without them this dissertation would not have been possible. For them too, this dissertation is written. 1[66] v vi Contents I Observations 1 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Motivation . 3 1.1.1 Few scenes from shipping practice . 3 1.1.2 State of the art of shipping research . 6 1.2 Hypothesis and problem formulation . 8 1.2.1 Hypothesis . 8 1.2.2 Problem formulation . 9 1.3 Scope and structure . 9 1.3.1 Scope of work . 9 1.3.2 Report structure . 10 2 Nature of Dry Bulk Shipping 13 2.1 Dry bulk shipping . 13 2.1.1 Definition . 13 2.1.2 Seaborne trade . 14 2.1.3 World Fleet . 16 2.2 Chartering and Sale & Purchase . 20 2.2.1 Chartering . 26 2.2.2 Sale & Purchase . 32 2.3 Operations . 38 2.3.1 Running . 38 2.3.2 Ship’s performance . 39 2.3.3 Maintaining knowledge as asset . 50 2.4 Multifaceted aspects of shipping . 52 2.4.1 The role of quality . 52 2.4.2 Decision hierarchy . 54 2.4.3 Strategy . 55 2.4.4 Experience, knowledge and education . 56 2.4.5 Imprecision and uncertainty . 60 2.4.6 Value of information . 62 2.5 Oldendorff Carriers: a profile . 64 2.6 Conclusions of the chapter . 66 vii Contents viii 3 Existing Resources and Tools 69 3.1 Chartering negotiations . 69 3.1.1 Short logbooks . 71 3.1.2 MV LUCY OLDENDORFF/ Panocean . 75 3.1.3 Supporting information . 77 3.1.4 Decision making . 78 3.2 Usable resources . 81 3.2.1 Tasks . 81 3.2.2 Fixture reports . 83 3.2.3 Forecasting reports . 84 3.2.4 Market index . 89 3.3 Tools . 89 3.3.1 Voyage estimation . 89 3.3.2 Statistics . 91 3.3.3 Econometric modelling . 95 3.3.4 Decision theory . 97 3.3.5 Views on shipping practice . 100 3.3.6 Research agenda . 101 3.4 Conclusions of the chapter . 103 II Concept building and implementation 105 4 Towards the Concept of Compatibility 107 4.1 Introduction . 107 4.1.1 Lessons learned . 107 4.1.2 Determining directions . 109 4.2 Foundations . 110 4.2.1 Bounded Rationality . 110 4.2.2 Information and complexity . 112 4.2.3 Precision, accuracy and detail . 113 4.2.4 Intuition, reasoning and experience . 118 4.3 A survey on methods . 124 4.3.1 Expert systems . 124 4.3.2 Fuzzy Set Theory . 126 4.3.3 Case-Based Reasoning . 136 4.4 Examples from our neighbours . 140 4.4.1 Residential property valuation . 140 4.4.2 Weather forecasting . 142 4.4.3 CLAVIER Project . 143 4.5 Concept of compatibility . 146 4.5.1 Definition . 146 4.5.2 Entity compatibility . 147 4.5.3 Relation compatibility . 149 ix Contents 4.5.4 Properties . 150 4.5.5 Choice of methods . 154 4.6 Conclusions of the chapter . 154 5 Proposed Implementations 157 5.1 Fuzzy arithmetic-based voyage estimation . 157 5.1.1 Motivation . 157 5.1.2 Interpretation problem .
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