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An Independent Assessment of the Technical Feasibility of the Mars One Mission Plan

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An Independent Assessment of the Technical Feasibility of the Mars One Mission Plan An Independent Assessment of the Technical Feasibility of the Mars One Mission Plan Updated Analysis Sydney Do, Koki Ho, Samuel Schreiner, Andrew Owens, Olivier de Weck Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology Original Paper: http://bit.ly/mitM1 FISO Telecon 02-11-15 Topics of Today’s Discussion • Research Motivation • Case Study: Mars One Mission Plan • Analysis Approach and Assumptions • Analysis Findings • Summary and Conclusions 2 Objective Space: Mission Endurance vs Crew Size 5 10 ? 4 10 State of the Art Self Sustained Presence Early Space 3 Stations 10 NASA DRA5 South Pole Salyut Station 2 Mir Stanford Torus 10 Skylab ISS Mars Settlement USS Parche [10000 people Gemini Submarine “indefinitely”] 1 STS 10 Apollo Aquarius Underwater Lab Vostok Early Crewed Vehicles 0Mercury 10 Voskhod Space Missions EMU Terrestrial Missions -1 10 0 1 2 3 4 Endurance (MaximumResupply), days TimeEndurance between 10 10 10 10 10 Crew Size 3 Classes of Space Habitation Mission Modes Fixed Crew Increasing Crew Crew in a Can Terrarium Mode No EVA (Inspiration Mars) (Stanford Torus ie. Space Hotel) Exploration Mode Colonization Mode With EVA (Mars DRA 5.0, CxP Lunar Outpost) (Mars One) 4 Timeline for Mars Studies* Study of Conjunction Manned Mars America at the Threshold 243 Annotations Class Manned Mars Trips Exploration, NASA SEI Synthesis Group The Annotated Bibliography Douglas Missile & Space The Mars Transit D.S. Portree Study of NERVA-Electric ExPO Mars Program System, B Aldrin A Study of Manned Manned Mars…, Study, NASA Nuclear-Rocket Missions Exploration Tech Studies, E. Stuhlinger, et al First Lunar Outpost, To Mars, S. Himmel, et al Office of Explor., NASA A.L. Dupont, et al EMPIRE, Study of Early Report on the 90-Day Study on Electromagnetic Launching The Moon as a Way station Manned Interplanetary…, Human Exploration…, NASA As a Major Contribution to Ford Aeronautic for Planetary Exploration, M. Duke Spaceflight, A.C. Clarke The Viking Results-The Case for Man on Mars, B. Clark Combination Lander Collier’s A Study of Early Inter- All-Up Mission, NASA A Case for Mars: Concept W. von Braun planetary Missions…, Three-Magnum Split Devlpmt for Mars Research General Dynamics Mission, NASA 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Dual Landers Presentation Planetary Engineering Libration-Point Staging The Mars Project NASA (B. Drake) On Mars, C. Sagan Concepts for Earth-Mars W. von Braun R. Farquhar & D. Durham (2) Design Reference Mission 4.0, Can we Get to Mars? Manned Interplanetary Pioneering the Space Bimodal and SEP, NASA W. von Braun Mission Study, Lockheed Frontier, Nat’l Design Reference Concept for a Manned Mars The Exploration of Mars Comm on Space Mission 3.0, NASA Expedition with Electrically... W. Ley & W. von Braun Design Reference E. Stuhlinger & J. King Leadership and America’s Future in Space, NASA Mission 1.0, NASA Manned Entry Missions Conceptual Design for a The L1 Transportation To Mars and Venus, Exploration Tech Studies, Manned Mars Vehicle, P. Bono Node, N. Lemke Lowe & Cervais Office of Explor., NASA A Smaller Scale Manned Mars Direct: A Simple, Capability of the Saturn V Mars Evolutionary Program Robust…, R. Zubrin To Support Planetary Exploration I. Bekey G.R. Woodcock *A Comparison of Transportation Systems for Human Missions to Mars, AIAA 2004-3834 **Bold type represents selected studies Slide adapted from Toups, L., 2012, Mission Architecture for Mars and Habitation Capability for Deep Space, Presentation at ICED2012 5 Evolvable Mars Campaign 6 House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hearing (2/27/2014) “As we discuss what going to Mars means, we have to be aware of once we get to Mars – what are we going to do there? … One of the problems with the Lunar program… we went to the Moon, and then it was: ‘Okay, we’ve been to the Moon, now what?’ And now it’s: ‘We’ve been there done that and we shouldn’t go back again’; so we need to have a big picture plan. What are we going to do? We’re going to go to Mars, and we’re going to do X, so we just don’t go to Mars and then we stop going to Mars cause we’ve now been to Mars.” Sandy Magnus, Executive Director, AIAA 7 Simplified Architecture Decision Graph for Exploration Campaigns 8 Simplified Architecture Decision Graph for Exploration Campaigns SpaceNet http://spacenet.mit.edu 9 Simplified Architecture Decision Graph for Exploration Campaigns SpaceNet HabNet 10 Case Study: Mars One Mission Plan Co-Authors: Andrew Owens, Koki Ho, Samuel Schreiner, Oliver de Weck 11 Mars One Mission Overview Summary: Phase Year Image Gradual colonization of Mars via Precursor 2018 successive four-person, one-way missions to Mars starting in 2024 Pre- 2020 Mission Design Philosophy: deploy 1. Permanent settlement 2. Maximize ISRU 3. All power from solar Habitat 2022 Pre- to 4. Exploit currently available technology deploy 2023 5. International mission Claim: 1st Crew 2024 “No new major developments or Transit inventions are needed to make the mission plan a reality. Each stage of Focus Analysis Expansion 2025 Mars One mission plan employs existing, validated and available technology.” 12 Integrated Simulation Overview Habitation Module • Functional ECLS model based on NASA JSC BioSim • Captures resource interaction between EVA, ECLS, and Biomass Production • Plant model based on NASA Modified Energy Cascade Models ISRU Module • Sizing models for: • Soil processor oven (H2O extraction) • Atmosphere processor (N2 extraction) based on conceptual ISRU designs Sparing Module • Models systems as a Semi-Markov Process (SMP) to determine no. of spares to ensure >99% probability of having enough spares to repair all failures over the mission lifetime • Random failure modeled by exponential distributions based on part MTBF and LL 1313 14 ISS Life Support Technologies 15 Baseline Mars One ECLS and ISRU Architecture 16 17 NASA Bio-PLEX Program • NASA program initiated ~1988 to develop an integrated biological life support system / habitation testbed • Three test phases planned: 425 day, 120 day, and 240 day tests • Program funding cancelled in 2002 For more info, see: SAE 972342,SAE 1999-01-2186 18 Preliminary Analysis Findings: Diet Planning and Crop Selection Mars One Baseline: Selected Crop Growth Areas: Food is 100% locally grown Growth Crop Diet Planning: Area (m2) • Caloric budget: 3040.1Calories/CM/day Dry Bean - • Target diet: 68% carbs, 12% protein, Lettuce - 20% fat Peanut 72.7 • Determine growth area via optimization: Rice - Soybean 39.7 Total area i9 (min. system mass) Sweet Potato 9.81 min w1 xi w2 (x) Tomato - i1 Standard Deviation i9 (max. variety) Wheat 72.5 s.t. c r x 2067.2 Meet minimum White Potato 4.99 i i i carb req. i1 Total Growth Area (m2) 199.7 i9 Meet minimum p r x 364.8 2 i i i protein req. Mars One claim: 50m for 12 crew i1 Calculated requirements: i9 Meet minimum 2 firi xi 270.2 fat req. • ~200m of plant shelf area for 4 crew i1 All areas are • 875 LED lighting systems xi 0 for i 1,...,9 positive • 22000L of nutrient solution 19 Assumed Baseline Mars One Habitat Layout Mars One Baseline Mars One Baseline with Resized Plant Growth System 20 Assumed Baseline Mars One Habitat Layout Mars One Baseline Mars One Baseline with Resized Plant Growth System 21 Integrated Simulation (Without ISRU to size ISRU systems) Atmospheric CO Concentration Simulation Result: 2 3500 CDRA Nominal Mode • Crop death occurs at Day 12-19 due to insufficient CO2 3000 CDRA Reduced Mode 2500 2000 Concentration (ppm) Concentration 2 1500 1000 500 Crop Death Threshold 0 Atmospheric CO 0 5 10 15 20 Mission Elapsed Time (days) 22 Integrated Simulation (Without ISRU to size ISRU systems) Life Support Unit 1 Simulation Result: 0.34 • Crop death occurs at Day 12-19 due to insufficient CO2 0.32 Fire Safety Threshold • With CO2 injection system incorporated, fire safety 0.3 threshold exceeded at Day 43, and first crew fatality at 0.28 Molar Fraction Molar Day 45 due to suffocation from too low ppO2 2 0.26 O 0.24 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mission Elapsed Time (days) Life Support Unit 1 20 19 18 17 16 Hypoxia Threshold 15 Partial Pressure (kPa) 2 O 14 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mission Elapsed Time (days) 23 Integrated Simulation (Without ISRU to size ISRU systems) Life Support Unit 1 Simulation Result: 0.34 • Crop death occurs at Day 12-19 due to insufficient CO2 0.32 Fire Safety Threshold • With CO2 injection system incorporated, fire safety 0.3 threshold exceeded at Day 43, and first crew fatality at 0.28 Molar Fraction Molar Day 45 due to suffocation from too low ppO2 2 0.26 O 0.24 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cause: Mission Elapsed Time (days) • Crops produce too much O2 (rises as crops reach Life Support Unit 1 maturity) 20 19 • PCA vents gases and introduces N2 to maintain 18 atmospheric composition 17 16 • This continues until N2 store is depleted on Day 42 Hypoxia Threshold 15 Partial Pressure (kPa) • Plants continue to produce O , raising O molar fraction 2 2 2 O 14 above fire safety threshold 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mission Elapsed Time (days) • Lack of N2 causes module leakage to dominate, reducing N Tank Level 2 total pressure, and ppO2 below hypoxic threshold 12000 10000 8000 Finding: 6000 • Peak N2 depletion of 360moles/day, requires an ISRU 4000 Tank Level (moles) 2000 3 2 system that is 1.1mT and 5m (>45% and >20% of lander N 0 capacity, respectively) prohibitively large system 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mission Elapsed Time (days) 24 Simulation Case 1 – BPS Case: Oxygen Removal Assembly with BPS • Place crops in their own plant growth chamber • Install a “CO2 Injector” to sustain crops
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